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1 year 5 months ago
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0625 AM CST Sun Feb 25 2024
Valid 251300Z - 261200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms may occur Sunday night across parts of
coastal/northwest Washington.
...Discussion...
The upper flow field across the U.S. will continue to trend toward
an increasingly zonal configuration with time, as upper troughing
continues to shift away from the East Coast into the western
Atlantic.
At the surface, high pressure will prevail across much of the
country, along with generally dry/stable conditions.
During the second half of the period, a short-wave trough digging
southward along the British Columbia coast will reach the Pacific
Northwest. Cold air aloft/steep lapse rates will likely yield weak
destabilization late -- largely across the western Washington
vicinity. As such, sporadic lighting may evolve with showery
convection anticipated across this area.
Elsewhere, thunderstorms are not expected.
..Goss/Broyles.. 02/25/2024
Read more
1 year 5 months ago
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0625 AM CST Sun Feb 25 2024
Valid 251300Z - 261200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms may occur Sunday night across parts of
coastal/northwest Washington.
...Discussion...
The upper flow field across the U.S. will continue to trend toward
an increasingly zonal configuration with time, as upper troughing
continues to shift away from the East Coast into the western
Atlantic.
At the surface, high pressure will prevail across much of the
country, along with generally dry/stable conditions.
During the second half of the period, a short-wave trough digging
southward along the British Columbia coast will reach the Pacific
Northwest. Cold air aloft/steep lapse rates will likely yield weak
destabilization late -- largely across the western Washington
vicinity. As such, sporadic lighting may evolve with showery
convection anticipated across this area.
Elsewhere, thunderstorms are not expected.
..Goss/Broyles.. 02/25/2024
Read more
1 year 5 months ago
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0349 AM CST Sun Feb 25 2024
Valid 281200Z - 041200Z
...DISCUSSION...
...Wednesday/Day 4...
An upper-level trough is forecast to move into the Great Lakes and
Ohio Valley on Wednesday, as a cold front sweeps quickly
southeastward across the southern and central Appalachians.
Instability ahead of the front is forecast to be very weak at the
start of the period. Wednesday morning, scattered thunderstorms
appear likely to be ongoing across parts of the Ohio Valley and
southern Great Lakes, where a marginal severe threat is anticipated.
As the cold front progresses southeastward during the day,
additional storm development could take place near the front in
parts of the lower Great Lakes and central Appalachians. Although a
marginal wind-damage threat could occur along parts of the front,
abundant cloud cover and very weak instability will likely limit any
potential for severe storms Wednesday afternoon. Due to downward
trends in the model forecasts concerning severe potential, the 15
percent area has been removed.
...Thursday/Day 5 to Sunday/Day 8...
A large area of surface high pressure will likely move through the
eastern U.S. from Thursday into Friday. Thunderstorms will be
possible across parts of the central Gulf Coast on Friday, on the
far northern edge of a moist airmass. As winds return to the south
across the southern Plains, moisture advection is expected from late
Friday into Saturday. An upper-level trough is forecast to develop
in the western U.S., with winds remaining southwesterly across the
central states over the weekend. The ECMWF is currently forecasting
a corridor of instability to develop across the southern and central
Plains on Sunday/Day 8, with an upper-level low moving into the
central High Plains. This solution would suggest a severe threat
across parts of the region Sunday afternoon and evening. However,
the GFS solution is not in agreement with weaker moisture return and
much less instability. At this point, a wide spread in model
solutions suggests too much uncertainty is present to consider
adding a severe threat area.
Read more
1 year 5 months ago
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0349 AM CST Sun Feb 25 2024
Valid 281200Z - 041200Z
...DISCUSSION...
...Wednesday/Day 4...
An upper-level trough is forecast to move into the Great Lakes and
Ohio Valley on Wednesday, as a cold front sweeps quickly
southeastward across the southern and central Appalachians.
Instability ahead of the front is forecast to be very weak at the
start of the period. Wednesday morning, scattered thunderstorms
appear likely to be ongoing across parts of the Ohio Valley and
southern Great Lakes, where a marginal severe threat is anticipated.
As the cold front progresses southeastward during the day,
additional storm development could take place near the front in
parts of the lower Great Lakes and central Appalachians. Although a
marginal wind-damage threat could occur along parts of the front,
abundant cloud cover and very weak instability will likely limit any
potential for severe storms Wednesday afternoon. Due to downward
trends in the model forecasts concerning severe potential, the 15
percent area has been removed.
...Thursday/Day 5 to Sunday/Day 8...
A large area of surface high pressure will likely move through the
eastern U.S. from Thursday into Friday. Thunderstorms will be
possible across parts of the central Gulf Coast on Friday, on the
far northern edge of a moist airmass. As winds return to the south
across the southern Plains, moisture advection is expected from late
Friday into Saturday. An upper-level trough is forecast to develop
in the western U.S., with winds remaining southwesterly across the
central states over the weekend. The ECMWF is currently forecasting
a corridor of instability to develop across the southern and central
Plains on Sunday/Day 8, with an upper-level low moving into the
central High Plains. This solution would suggest a severe threat
across parts of the region Sunday afternoon and evening. However,
the GFS solution is not in agreement with weaker moisture return and
much less instability. At this point, a wide spread in model
solutions suggests too much uncertainty is present to consider
adding a severe threat area.
Read more
1 year 5 months ago
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0349 AM CST Sun Feb 25 2024
Valid 281200Z - 041200Z
...DISCUSSION...
...Wednesday/Day 4...
An upper-level trough is forecast to move into the Great Lakes and
Ohio Valley on Wednesday, as a cold front sweeps quickly
southeastward across the southern and central Appalachians.
Instability ahead of the front is forecast to be very weak at the
start of the period. Wednesday morning, scattered thunderstorms
appear likely to be ongoing across parts of the Ohio Valley and
southern Great Lakes, where a marginal severe threat is anticipated.
As the cold front progresses southeastward during the day,
additional storm development could take place near the front in
parts of the lower Great Lakes and central Appalachians. Although a
marginal wind-damage threat could occur along parts of the front,
abundant cloud cover and very weak instability will likely limit any
potential for severe storms Wednesday afternoon. Due to downward
trends in the model forecasts concerning severe potential, the 15
percent area has been removed.
...Thursday/Day 5 to Sunday/Day 8...
A large area of surface high pressure will likely move through the
eastern U.S. from Thursday into Friday. Thunderstorms will be
possible across parts of the central Gulf Coast on Friday, on the
far northern edge of a moist airmass. As winds return to the south
across the southern Plains, moisture advection is expected from late
Friday into Saturday. An upper-level trough is forecast to develop
in the western U.S., with winds remaining southwesterly across the
central states over the weekend. The ECMWF is currently forecasting
a corridor of instability to develop across the southern and central
Plains on Sunday/Day 8, with an upper-level low moving into the
central High Plains. This solution would suggest a severe threat
across parts of the region Sunday afternoon and evening. However,
the GFS solution is not in agreement with weaker moisture return and
much less instability. At this point, a wide spread in model
solutions suggests too much uncertainty is present to consider
adding a severe threat area.
Read more
1 year 5 months ago
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0349 AM CST Sun Feb 25 2024
Valid 281200Z - 041200Z
...DISCUSSION...
...Wednesday/Day 4...
An upper-level trough is forecast to move into the Great Lakes and
Ohio Valley on Wednesday, as a cold front sweeps quickly
southeastward across the southern and central Appalachians.
Instability ahead of the front is forecast to be very weak at the
start of the period. Wednesday morning, scattered thunderstorms
appear likely to be ongoing across parts of the Ohio Valley and
southern Great Lakes, where a marginal severe threat is anticipated.
As the cold front progresses southeastward during the day,
additional storm development could take place near the front in
parts of the lower Great Lakes and central Appalachians. Although a
marginal wind-damage threat could occur along parts of the front,
abundant cloud cover and very weak instability will likely limit any
potential for severe storms Wednesday afternoon. Due to downward
trends in the model forecasts concerning severe potential, the 15
percent area has been removed.
...Thursday/Day 5 to Sunday/Day 8...
A large area of surface high pressure will likely move through the
eastern U.S. from Thursday into Friday. Thunderstorms will be
possible across parts of the central Gulf Coast on Friday, on the
far northern edge of a moist airmass. As winds return to the south
across the southern Plains, moisture advection is expected from late
Friday into Saturday. An upper-level trough is forecast to develop
in the western U.S., with winds remaining southwesterly across the
central states over the weekend. The ECMWF is currently forecasting
a corridor of instability to develop across the southern and central
Plains on Sunday/Day 8, with an upper-level low moving into the
central High Plains. This solution would suggest a severe threat
across parts of the region Sunday afternoon and evening. However,
the GFS solution is not in agreement with weaker moisture return and
much less instability. At this point, a wide spread in model
solutions suggests too much uncertainty is present to consider
adding a severe threat area.
Read more
1 year 5 months ago
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0349 AM CST Sun Feb 25 2024
Valid 281200Z - 041200Z
...DISCUSSION...
...Wednesday/Day 4...
An upper-level trough is forecast to move into the Great Lakes and
Ohio Valley on Wednesday, as a cold front sweeps quickly
southeastward across the southern and central Appalachians.
Instability ahead of the front is forecast to be very weak at the
start of the period. Wednesday morning, scattered thunderstorms
appear likely to be ongoing across parts of the Ohio Valley and
southern Great Lakes, where a marginal severe threat is anticipated.
As the cold front progresses southeastward during the day,
additional storm development could take place near the front in
parts of the lower Great Lakes and central Appalachians. Although a
marginal wind-damage threat could occur along parts of the front,
abundant cloud cover and very weak instability will likely limit any
potential for severe storms Wednesday afternoon. Due to downward
trends in the model forecasts concerning severe potential, the 15
percent area has been removed.
...Thursday/Day 5 to Sunday/Day 8...
A large area of surface high pressure will likely move through the
eastern U.S. from Thursday into Friday. Thunderstorms will be
possible across parts of the central Gulf Coast on Friday, on the
far northern edge of a moist airmass. As winds return to the south
across the southern Plains, moisture advection is expected from late
Friday into Saturday. An upper-level trough is forecast to develop
in the western U.S., with winds remaining southwesterly across the
central states over the weekend. The ECMWF is currently forecasting
a corridor of instability to develop across the southern and central
Plains on Sunday/Day 8, with an upper-level low moving into the
central High Plains. This solution would suggest a severe threat
across parts of the region Sunday afternoon and evening. However,
the GFS solution is not in agreement with weaker moisture return and
much less instability. At this point, a wide spread in model
solutions suggests too much uncertainty is present to consider
adding a severe threat area.
Read more
1 year 5 months ago
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0349 AM CST Sun Feb 25 2024
Valid 281200Z - 041200Z
...DISCUSSION...
...Wednesday/Day 4...
An upper-level trough is forecast to move into the Great Lakes and
Ohio Valley on Wednesday, as a cold front sweeps quickly
southeastward across the southern and central Appalachians.
Instability ahead of the front is forecast to be very weak at the
start of the period. Wednesday morning, scattered thunderstorms
appear likely to be ongoing across parts of the Ohio Valley and
southern Great Lakes, where a marginal severe threat is anticipated.
As the cold front progresses southeastward during the day,
additional storm development could take place near the front in
parts of the lower Great Lakes and central Appalachians. Although a
marginal wind-damage threat could occur along parts of the front,
abundant cloud cover and very weak instability will likely limit any
potential for severe storms Wednesday afternoon. Due to downward
trends in the model forecasts concerning severe potential, the 15
percent area has been removed.
...Thursday/Day 5 to Sunday/Day 8...
A large area of surface high pressure will likely move through the
eastern U.S. from Thursday into Friday. Thunderstorms will be
possible across parts of the central Gulf Coast on Friday, on the
far northern edge of a moist airmass. As winds return to the south
across the southern Plains, moisture advection is expected from late
Friday into Saturday. An upper-level trough is forecast to develop
in the western U.S., with winds remaining southwesterly across the
central states over the weekend. The ECMWF is currently forecasting
a corridor of instability to develop across the southern and central
Plains on Sunday/Day 8, with an upper-level low moving into the
central High Plains. This solution would suggest a severe threat
across parts of the region Sunday afternoon and evening. However,
the GFS solution is not in agreement with weaker moisture return and
much less instability. At this point, a wide spread in model
solutions suggests too much uncertainty is present to consider
adding a severe threat area.
Read more
1 year 5 months ago
SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0234 AM CST Sun Feb 25 2024
Valid 271200Z - 281200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE OZARKS...MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHWESTERN GREAT LAKES...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms, associated with isolated
wind damage, hail and possibly a few tornadoes, will be possible
from late Tuesday afternoon, into the evening and overnight from
parts of the Ozarks into the mid Mississippi Valley, and
southwestern Great Lakes.
...Ozarks/Mid Mississippi Valley/Southwestern Great Lakes...
An upper-level trough will move eastward into the central Rockies
and northern Plains on Tuesday, as mid-level flow remains
west-southwesterly across much of the central and eastern U.S. Well
ahead of the system, moisture will return north-northeastward into
the mid Mississippi Valley and southwestern Great Lakes, reaching as
far north as southern lower Michigan. A cold front is forecast to
move southeastward into the mid to upper Mississippi Valley.
Destabilization ahead of the front, along with increasing low-level
convergence, will likely result in thunderstorm development by early
evening. Thunderstorms are expected to first initiate in parts of
central Illinois and north-central Indiana. Convective coverage is
expected to increase through the evening, as storms develop ahead of
the front, southward into parts of the mid Mississippi Valley and
northern Ozarks.
For this event, low-level moisture return is forecast to be weak,
with surface dewpoints only increasing into the upper 50s and lower
60s F across parts of the mid Mississippi. For this reason, MLCAPE
is forecast to peak only in the 500 to 1000 J/kg range across much
of the moist sector. Increasing large-scale ascent ahead of the
approaching system is forecast to be sufficient for the development
of scattered thunderstorms. Forecast soundings in north-central
Illinois, along and near the moist axis, by 03Z/Wednesday have 0-6
km shear in the 55 to 65 knot range, with 700-500 mb lapse rates of
7.5 to 8 C/km. This should be enough for strong to severe updrafts.
Isolated wind damage, hail and a possibly a few tornadoes are
expected to be the primary threats. Although a Slight Risk appears
warranted for this event, there is still uncertainty concerning the
magnitude of the severe threat. This uncertainty is mainly due to
the weak moisture return, and to the later timing of the convective
potential, which is forecast to be mostly in the evening and
overnight period.
..Broyles.. 02/25/2024
Read more
1 year 5 months ago
SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0234 AM CST Sun Feb 25 2024
Valid 271200Z - 281200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE OZARKS...MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHWESTERN GREAT LAKES...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms, associated with isolated
wind damage, hail and possibly a few tornadoes, will be possible
from late Tuesday afternoon, into the evening and overnight from
parts of the Ozarks into the mid Mississippi Valley, and
southwestern Great Lakes.
...Ozarks/Mid Mississippi Valley/Southwestern Great Lakes...
An upper-level trough will move eastward into the central Rockies
and northern Plains on Tuesday, as mid-level flow remains
west-southwesterly across much of the central and eastern U.S. Well
ahead of the system, moisture will return north-northeastward into
the mid Mississippi Valley and southwestern Great Lakes, reaching as
far north as southern lower Michigan. A cold front is forecast to
move southeastward into the mid to upper Mississippi Valley.
Destabilization ahead of the front, along with increasing low-level
convergence, will likely result in thunderstorm development by early
evening. Thunderstorms are expected to first initiate in parts of
central Illinois and north-central Indiana. Convective coverage is
expected to increase through the evening, as storms develop ahead of
the front, southward into parts of the mid Mississippi Valley and
northern Ozarks.
For this event, low-level moisture return is forecast to be weak,
with surface dewpoints only increasing into the upper 50s and lower
60s F across parts of the mid Mississippi. For this reason, MLCAPE
is forecast to peak only in the 500 to 1000 J/kg range across much
of the moist sector. Increasing large-scale ascent ahead of the
approaching system is forecast to be sufficient for the development
of scattered thunderstorms. Forecast soundings in north-central
Illinois, along and near the moist axis, by 03Z/Wednesday have 0-6
km shear in the 55 to 65 knot range, with 700-500 mb lapse rates of
7.5 to 8 C/km. This should be enough for strong to severe updrafts.
Isolated wind damage, hail and a possibly a few tornadoes are
expected to be the primary threats. Although a Slight Risk appears
warranted for this event, there is still uncertainty concerning the
magnitude of the severe threat. This uncertainty is mainly due to
the weak moisture return, and to the later timing of the convective
potential, which is forecast to be mostly in the evening and
overnight period.
..Broyles.. 02/25/2024
Read more
1 year 5 months ago
SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0234 AM CST Sun Feb 25 2024
Valid 271200Z - 281200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE OZARKS...MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHWESTERN GREAT LAKES...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms, associated with isolated
wind damage, hail and possibly a few tornadoes, will be possible
from late Tuesday afternoon, into the evening and overnight from
parts of the Ozarks into the mid Mississippi Valley, and
southwestern Great Lakes.
...Ozarks/Mid Mississippi Valley/Southwestern Great Lakes...
An upper-level trough will move eastward into the central Rockies
and northern Plains on Tuesday, as mid-level flow remains
west-southwesterly across much of the central and eastern U.S. Well
ahead of the system, moisture will return north-northeastward into
the mid Mississippi Valley and southwestern Great Lakes, reaching as
far north as southern lower Michigan. A cold front is forecast to
move southeastward into the mid to upper Mississippi Valley.
Destabilization ahead of the front, along with increasing low-level
convergence, will likely result in thunderstorm development by early
evening. Thunderstorms are expected to first initiate in parts of
central Illinois and north-central Indiana. Convective coverage is
expected to increase through the evening, as storms develop ahead of
the front, southward into parts of the mid Mississippi Valley and
northern Ozarks.
For this event, low-level moisture return is forecast to be weak,
with surface dewpoints only increasing into the upper 50s and lower
60s F across parts of the mid Mississippi. For this reason, MLCAPE
is forecast to peak only in the 500 to 1000 J/kg range across much
of the moist sector. Increasing large-scale ascent ahead of the
approaching system is forecast to be sufficient for the development
of scattered thunderstorms. Forecast soundings in north-central
Illinois, along and near the moist axis, by 03Z/Wednesday have 0-6
km shear in the 55 to 65 knot range, with 700-500 mb lapse rates of
7.5 to 8 C/km. This should be enough for strong to severe updrafts.
Isolated wind damage, hail and a possibly a few tornadoes are
expected to be the primary threats. Although a Slight Risk appears
warranted for this event, there is still uncertainty concerning the
magnitude of the severe threat. This uncertainty is mainly due to
the weak moisture return, and to the later timing of the convective
potential, which is forecast to be mostly in the evening and
overnight period.
..Broyles.. 02/25/2024
Read more
1 year 5 months ago
SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0234 AM CST Sun Feb 25 2024
Valid 271200Z - 281200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE OZARKS...MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHWESTERN GREAT LAKES...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms, associated with isolated
wind damage, hail and possibly a few tornadoes, will be possible
from late Tuesday afternoon, into the evening and overnight from
parts of the Ozarks into the mid Mississippi Valley, and
southwestern Great Lakes.
...Ozarks/Mid Mississippi Valley/Southwestern Great Lakes...
An upper-level trough will move eastward into the central Rockies
and northern Plains on Tuesday, as mid-level flow remains
west-southwesterly across much of the central and eastern U.S. Well
ahead of the system, moisture will return north-northeastward into
the mid Mississippi Valley and southwestern Great Lakes, reaching as
far north as southern lower Michigan. A cold front is forecast to
move southeastward into the mid to upper Mississippi Valley.
Destabilization ahead of the front, along with increasing low-level
convergence, will likely result in thunderstorm development by early
evening. Thunderstorms are expected to first initiate in parts of
central Illinois and north-central Indiana. Convective coverage is
expected to increase through the evening, as storms develop ahead of
the front, southward into parts of the mid Mississippi Valley and
northern Ozarks.
For this event, low-level moisture return is forecast to be weak,
with surface dewpoints only increasing into the upper 50s and lower
60s F across parts of the mid Mississippi. For this reason, MLCAPE
is forecast to peak only in the 500 to 1000 J/kg range across much
of the moist sector. Increasing large-scale ascent ahead of the
approaching system is forecast to be sufficient for the development
of scattered thunderstorms. Forecast soundings in north-central
Illinois, along and near the moist axis, by 03Z/Wednesday have 0-6
km shear in the 55 to 65 knot range, with 700-500 mb lapse rates of
7.5 to 8 C/km. This should be enough for strong to severe updrafts.
Isolated wind damage, hail and a possibly a few tornadoes are
expected to be the primary threats. Although a Slight Risk appears
warranted for this event, there is still uncertainty concerning the
magnitude of the severe threat. This uncertainty is mainly due to
the weak moisture return, and to the later timing of the convective
potential, which is forecast to be mostly in the evening and
overnight period.
..Broyles.. 02/25/2024
Read more
1 year 5 months ago
SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0234 AM CST Sun Feb 25 2024
Valid 271200Z - 281200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE OZARKS...MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHWESTERN GREAT LAKES...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms, associated with isolated
wind damage, hail and possibly a few tornadoes, will be possible
from late Tuesday afternoon, into the evening and overnight from
parts of the Ozarks into the mid Mississippi Valley, and
southwestern Great Lakes.
...Ozarks/Mid Mississippi Valley/Southwestern Great Lakes...
An upper-level trough will move eastward into the central Rockies
and northern Plains on Tuesday, as mid-level flow remains
west-southwesterly across much of the central and eastern U.S. Well
ahead of the system, moisture will return north-northeastward into
the mid Mississippi Valley and southwestern Great Lakes, reaching as
far north as southern lower Michigan. A cold front is forecast to
move southeastward into the mid to upper Mississippi Valley.
Destabilization ahead of the front, along with increasing low-level
convergence, will likely result in thunderstorm development by early
evening. Thunderstorms are expected to first initiate in parts of
central Illinois and north-central Indiana. Convective coverage is
expected to increase through the evening, as storms develop ahead of
the front, southward into parts of the mid Mississippi Valley and
northern Ozarks.
For this event, low-level moisture return is forecast to be weak,
with surface dewpoints only increasing into the upper 50s and lower
60s F across parts of the mid Mississippi. For this reason, MLCAPE
is forecast to peak only in the 500 to 1000 J/kg range across much
of the moist sector. Increasing large-scale ascent ahead of the
approaching system is forecast to be sufficient for the development
of scattered thunderstorms. Forecast soundings in north-central
Illinois, along and near the moist axis, by 03Z/Wednesday have 0-6
km shear in the 55 to 65 knot range, with 700-500 mb lapse rates of
7.5 to 8 C/km. This should be enough for strong to severe updrafts.
Isolated wind damage, hail and a possibly a few tornadoes are
expected to be the primary threats. Although a Slight Risk appears
warranted for this event, there is still uncertainty concerning the
magnitude of the severe threat. This uncertainty is mainly due to
the weak moisture return, and to the later timing of the convective
potential, which is forecast to be mostly in the evening and
overnight period.
..Broyles.. 02/25/2024
Read more
1 year 5 months ago
SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0234 AM CST Sun Feb 25 2024
Valid 271200Z - 281200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE OZARKS...MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHWESTERN GREAT LAKES...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms, associated with isolated
wind damage, hail and possibly a few tornadoes, will be possible
from late Tuesday afternoon, into the evening and overnight from
parts of the Ozarks into the mid Mississippi Valley, and
southwestern Great Lakes.
...Ozarks/Mid Mississippi Valley/Southwestern Great Lakes...
An upper-level trough will move eastward into the central Rockies
and northern Plains on Tuesday, as mid-level flow remains
west-southwesterly across much of the central and eastern U.S. Well
ahead of the system, moisture will return north-northeastward into
the mid Mississippi Valley and southwestern Great Lakes, reaching as
far north as southern lower Michigan. A cold front is forecast to
move southeastward into the mid to upper Mississippi Valley.
Destabilization ahead of the front, along with increasing low-level
convergence, will likely result in thunderstorm development by early
evening. Thunderstorms are expected to first initiate in parts of
central Illinois and north-central Indiana. Convective coverage is
expected to increase through the evening, as storms develop ahead of
the front, southward into parts of the mid Mississippi Valley and
northern Ozarks.
For this event, low-level moisture return is forecast to be weak,
with surface dewpoints only increasing into the upper 50s and lower
60s F across parts of the mid Mississippi. For this reason, MLCAPE
is forecast to peak only in the 500 to 1000 J/kg range across much
of the moist sector. Increasing large-scale ascent ahead of the
approaching system is forecast to be sufficient for the development
of scattered thunderstorms. Forecast soundings in north-central
Illinois, along and near the moist axis, by 03Z/Wednesday have 0-6
km shear in the 55 to 65 knot range, with 700-500 mb lapse rates of
7.5 to 8 C/km. This should be enough for strong to severe updrafts.
Isolated wind damage, hail and a possibly a few tornadoes are
expected to be the primary threats. Although a Slight Risk appears
warranted for this event, there is still uncertainty concerning the
magnitude of the severe threat. This uncertainty is mainly due to
the weak moisture return, and to the later timing of the convective
potential, which is forecast to be mostly in the evening and
overnight period.
..Broyles.. 02/25/2024
Read more
1 year 5 months ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0159 AM CST Sun Feb 25 2024
Valid 261200Z - 271200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO
WEST TEXAS AND THE PANHANDLE....
...Synopsis...
Split mid-level flow over the western and central US will gradually
coalesce into broad and strong southwesterly flow as a Pacific
trough digs south over the northern Great Basin. Several weak
perturbations within the amplified sub-tropical jet will move across
the southern and central Rockies intensifying a robust surface lee
trough. Increasing downslope pressure gradients and momentum
transfer from the flow aloft will bolster strong surface winds
across the southern and central High Plains. With unusually warm and
dry conditions also present, widespread elevated and critical
fire-weather conditions are expected over the southern High Plains.
...Southern and central High Plains...
As flow aloft strengthens and gradually becomes southwesterly, lee
troughing should rapidly intensify across the southern and central
High Plains. Downslope winds of 25-30 mph appear likely Monday
afternoon across parts of eastern NM, southeastern CO and western
TX/OK. Coincident with temperatures in the 70s to 80s F, afternoon
RH values will fall to 15-20%. Intensifying dryness in area fuels
is expected to support the risk for fire spread in combination with
the aforementioned meteorological conditions. Widespread elevated to
critical fire-weather concerns appear likely for the southern and
central High Plains. Localized fire-weather concerns are also
possible farther north into parts of eastern WY and western NE,
though fuels here are less receptive and uncertainty is higher.
..Lyons.. 02/25/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
1 year 5 months ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0159 AM CST Sun Feb 25 2024
Valid 261200Z - 271200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO
WEST TEXAS AND THE PANHANDLE....
...Synopsis...
Split mid-level flow over the western and central US will gradually
coalesce into broad and strong southwesterly flow as a Pacific
trough digs south over the northern Great Basin. Several weak
perturbations within the amplified sub-tropical jet will move across
the southern and central Rockies intensifying a robust surface lee
trough. Increasing downslope pressure gradients and momentum
transfer from the flow aloft will bolster strong surface winds
across the southern and central High Plains. With unusually warm and
dry conditions also present, widespread elevated and critical
fire-weather conditions are expected over the southern High Plains.
...Southern and central High Plains...
As flow aloft strengthens and gradually becomes southwesterly, lee
troughing should rapidly intensify across the southern and central
High Plains. Downslope winds of 25-30 mph appear likely Monday
afternoon across parts of eastern NM, southeastern CO and western
TX/OK. Coincident with temperatures in the 70s to 80s F, afternoon
RH values will fall to 15-20%. Intensifying dryness in area fuels
is expected to support the risk for fire spread in combination with
the aforementioned meteorological conditions. Widespread elevated to
critical fire-weather concerns appear likely for the southern and
central High Plains. Localized fire-weather concerns are also
possible farther north into parts of eastern WY and western NE,
though fuels here are less receptive and uncertainty is higher.
..Lyons.. 02/25/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
1 year 5 months ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0159 AM CST Sun Feb 25 2024
Valid 261200Z - 271200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO
WEST TEXAS AND THE PANHANDLE....
...Synopsis...
Split mid-level flow over the western and central US will gradually
coalesce into broad and strong southwesterly flow as a Pacific
trough digs south over the northern Great Basin. Several weak
perturbations within the amplified sub-tropical jet will move across
the southern and central Rockies intensifying a robust surface lee
trough. Increasing downslope pressure gradients and momentum
transfer from the flow aloft will bolster strong surface winds
across the southern and central High Plains. With unusually warm and
dry conditions also present, widespread elevated and critical
fire-weather conditions are expected over the southern High Plains.
...Southern and central High Plains...
As flow aloft strengthens and gradually becomes southwesterly, lee
troughing should rapidly intensify across the southern and central
High Plains. Downslope winds of 25-30 mph appear likely Monday
afternoon across parts of eastern NM, southeastern CO and western
TX/OK. Coincident with temperatures in the 70s to 80s F, afternoon
RH values will fall to 15-20%. Intensifying dryness in area fuels
is expected to support the risk for fire spread in combination with
the aforementioned meteorological conditions. Widespread elevated to
critical fire-weather concerns appear likely for the southern and
central High Plains. Localized fire-weather concerns are also
possible farther north into parts of eastern WY and western NE,
though fuels here are less receptive and uncertainty is higher.
..Lyons.. 02/25/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
1 year 5 months ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0159 AM CST Sun Feb 25 2024
Valid 261200Z - 271200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO
WEST TEXAS AND THE PANHANDLE....
...Synopsis...
Split mid-level flow over the western and central US will gradually
coalesce into broad and strong southwesterly flow as a Pacific
trough digs south over the northern Great Basin. Several weak
perturbations within the amplified sub-tropical jet will move across
the southern and central Rockies intensifying a robust surface lee
trough. Increasing downslope pressure gradients and momentum
transfer from the flow aloft will bolster strong surface winds
across the southern and central High Plains. With unusually warm and
dry conditions also present, widespread elevated and critical
fire-weather conditions are expected over the southern High Plains.
...Southern and central High Plains...
As flow aloft strengthens and gradually becomes southwesterly, lee
troughing should rapidly intensify across the southern and central
High Plains. Downslope winds of 25-30 mph appear likely Monday
afternoon across parts of eastern NM, southeastern CO and western
TX/OK. Coincident with temperatures in the 70s to 80s F, afternoon
RH values will fall to 15-20%. Intensifying dryness in area fuels
is expected to support the risk for fire spread in combination with
the aforementioned meteorological conditions. Widespread elevated to
critical fire-weather concerns appear likely for the southern and
central High Plains. Localized fire-weather concerns are also
possible farther north into parts of eastern WY and western NE,
though fuels here are less receptive and uncertainty is higher.
..Lyons.. 02/25/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
1 year 5 months ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0159 AM CST Sun Feb 25 2024
Valid 261200Z - 271200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO
WEST TEXAS AND THE PANHANDLE....
...Synopsis...
Split mid-level flow over the western and central US will gradually
coalesce into broad and strong southwesterly flow as a Pacific
trough digs south over the northern Great Basin. Several weak
perturbations within the amplified sub-tropical jet will move across
the southern and central Rockies intensifying a robust surface lee
trough. Increasing downslope pressure gradients and momentum
transfer from the flow aloft will bolster strong surface winds
across the southern and central High Plains. With unusually warm and
dry conditions also present, widespread elevated and critical
fire-weather conditions are expected over the southern High Plains.
...Southern and central High Plains...
As flow aloft strengthens and gradually becomes southwesterly, lee
troughing should rapidly intensify across the southern and central
High Plains. Downslope winds of 25-30 mph appear likely Monday
afternoon across parts of eastern NM, southeastern CO and western
TX/OK. Coincident with temperatures in the 70s to 80s F, afternoon
RH values will fall to 15-20%. Intensifying dryness in area fuels
is expected to support the risk for fire spread in combination with
the aforementioned meteorological conditions. Widespread elevated to
critical fire-weather concerns appear likely for the southern and
central High Plains. Localized fire-weather concerns are also
possible farther north into parts of eastern WY and western NE,
though fuels here are less receptive and uncertainty is higher.
..Lyons.. 02/25/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
1 year 5 months ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0158 AM CST Sun Feb 25 2024
Valid 251200Z - 261200Z
...Synopsis...
Split flow aloft will continue to strengthen over much of the
western and central US before turning more zonal with time. Several
small perturbations within the southern branch of the strong flow
will cross the southern Rockies strengthening a lee trough.
Downslope winds across parts of the southern High Plains will likely
support elevated to near-critical fire-weather conditions.
...Southwest and Southern High Plains...
Northwest flow aloft is forecast to intensify over parts of the
Southwest and southern High Plains through D2/Sunday. Aided by the
stronger flow aloft, and a lee trough, gusty downslope winds of
20-25 mph are possible across parts of eastern NM, southeastern CO
and west TX. Afternoon RH values below 20% will also be likely with
unseasonably warm temperatures. With little rain over this area in
the past several weeks, emerging dryness within area fuels is
expected to support a risk for elevated to near-critical
fire-weather conditions through the afternoon hours.
Strong winds and low humidity may also extend farther north across
parts of eastern CO and southeastern WY where strong gusts are
expected through terrain gaps. While meteorological conditions
appear likely to support some risk for critical fire-weather
conditions, area fuels remain only modestly receptive. Uncertainty
on fuel availability is high suggesting concerns will likely remain
more localized.
..Lyons.. 02/25/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
Checked
5 years 10 months ago
Storm Prediction Center
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