Severe Storms

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0650 AM CST Mon Feb 26 2024 Valid 261300Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF LOWER MICHIGAN...INDIANA...AND OHIO... ...SUMMARY... Isolated late-night hail is possible across portions of the central Great Lakes region. ...Synopsis... A primarily zonal mid-level flow field in place across much of the U.S. today will gradually amplify through tonight, as a trough digs southeastward across the northwestern quarter of the country. As this occurs, a cold front oriented east-northeast to west-southwest is forecast to advance southeastward across the northern half of the Intermountain West and, later, the northern Plains through Tuesday morning. Elsewhere, a rather nondescript surface pattern will prevail. ...Parts of Indiana/Ohio/Lower Michigan... As a lead/subtle mid-level short-wave trough shifts across the Midwest tonight, some strengthening of a southwesterly low-level jet is expected across this region. Resulting quasi-geostrophic ascent may support development of showers and isolated thunderstorms, atop a stable lower troposphere where steep mid-level lapse rates may support upwards of 1000 to 1500 J/kg CAPE through the cloud-bearing layer. With moderately strong mid-level west-southwesterly flow accompanying the short-wave trough, shear sufficient for mid-level updraft rotation is evident. With that said, model guidance -- both parameterized and convection-allowing -- in general indicates minimal overall convective development, in part due to questions regarding potential for ample moist advection/saturation above the inversion so as to support deep convective development. Still, presuming a few deeper convective cells can become organized/sustained tonight, severe-caliber hail would be possible. ..Goss/Broyles.. 02/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0650 AM CST Mon Feb 26 2024 Valid 261300Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF LOWER MICHIGAN...INDIANA...AND OHIO... ...SUMMARY... Isolated late-night hail is possible across portions of the central Great Lakes region. ...Synopsis... A primarily zonal mid-level flow field in place across much of the U.S. today will gradually amplify through tonight, as a trough digs southeastward across the northwestern quarter of the country. As this occurs, a cold front oriented east-northeast to west-southwest is forecast to advance southeastward across the northern half of the Intermountain West and, later, the northern Plains through Tuesday morning. Elsewhere, a rather nondescript surface pattern will prevail. ...Parts of Indiana/Ohio/Lower Michigan... As a lead/subtle mid-level short-wave trough shifts across the Midwest tonight, some strengthening of a southwesterly low-level jet is expected across this region. Resulting quasi-geostrophic ascent may support development of showers and isolated thunderstorms, atop a stable lower troposphere where steep mid-level lapse rates may support upwards of 1000 to 1500 J/kg CAPE through the cloud-bearing layer. With moderately strong mid-level west-southwesterly flow accompanying the short-wave trough, shear sufficient for mid-level updraft rotation is evident. With that said, model guidance -- both parameterized and convection-allowing -- in general indicates minimal overall convective development, in part due to questions regarding potential for ample moist advection/saturation above the inversion so as to support deep convective development. Still, presuming a few deeper convective cells can become organized/sustained tonight, severe-caliber hail would be possible. ..Goss/Broyles.. 02/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0650 AM CST Mon Feb 26 2024 Valid 261300Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF LOWER MICHIGAN...INDIANA...AND OHIO... ...SUMMARY... Isolated late-night hail is possible across portions of the central Great Lakes region. ...Synopsis... A primarily zonal mid-level flow field in place across much of the U.S. today will gradually amplify through tonight, as a trough digs southeastward across the northwestern quarter of the country. As this occurs, a cold front oriented east-northeast to west-southwest is forecast to advance southeastward across the northern half of the Intermountain West and, later, the northern Plains through Tuesday morning. Elsewhere, a rather nondescript surface pattern will prevail. ...Parts of Indiana/Ohio/Lower Michigan... As a lead/subtle mid-level short-wave trough shifts across the Midwest tonight, some strengthening of a southwesterly low-level jet is expected across this region. Resulting quasi-geostrophic ascent may support development of showers and isolated thunderstorms, atop a stable lower troposphere where steep mid-level lapse rates may support upwards of 1000 to 1500 J/kg CAPE through the cloud-bearing layer. With moderately strong mid-level west-southwesterly flow accompanying the short-wave trough, shear sufficient for mid-level updraft rotation is evident. With that said, model guidance -- both parameterized and convection-allowing -- in general indicates minimal overall convective development, in part due to questions regarding potential for ample moist advection/saturation above the inversion so as to support deep convective development. Still, presuming a few deeper convective cells can become organized/sustained tonight, severe-caliber hail would be possible. ..Goss/Broyles.. 02/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0650 AM CST Mon Feb 26 2024 Valid 261300Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF LOWER MICHIGAN...INDIANA...AND OHIO... ...SUMMARY... Isolated late-night hail is possible across portions of the central Great Lakes region. ...Synopsis... A primarily zonal mid-level flow field in place across much of the U.S. today will gradually amplify through tonight, as a trough digs southeastward across the northwestern quarter of the country. As this occurs, a cold front oriented east-northeast to west-southwest is forecast to advance southeastward across the northern half of the Intermountain West and, later, the northern Plains through Tuesday morning. Elsewhere, a rather nondescript surface pattern will prevail. ...Parts of Indiana/Ohio/Lower Michigan... As a lead/subtle mid-level short-wave trough shifts across the Midwest tonight, some strengthening of a southwesterly low-level jet is expected across this region. Resulting quasi-geostrophic ascent may support development of showers and isolated thunderstorms, atop a stable lower troposphere where steep mid-level lapse rates may support upwards of 1000 to 1500 J/kg CAPE through the cloud-bearing layer. With moderately strong mid-level west-southwesterly flow accompanying the short-wave trough, shear sufficient for mid-level updraft rotation is evident. With that said, model guidance -- both parameterized and convection-allowing -- in general indicates minimal overall convective development, in part due to questions regarding potential for ample moist advection/saturation above the inversion so as to support deep convective development. Still, presuming a few deeper convective cells can become organized/sustained tonight, severe-caliber hail would be possible. ..Goss/Broyles.. 02/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0650 AM CST Mon Feb 26 2024 Valid 261300Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF LOWER MICHIGAN...INDIANA...AND OHIO... ...SUMMARY... Isolated late-night hail is possible across portions of the central Great Lakes region. ...Synopsis... A primarily zonal mid-level flow field in place across much of the U.S. today will gradually amplify through tonight, as a trough digs southeastward across the northwestern quarter of the country. As this occurs, a cold front oriented east-northeast to west-southwest is forecast to advance southeastward across the northern half of the Intermountain West and, later, the northern Plains through Tuesday morning. Elsewhere, a rather nondescript surface pattern will prevail. ...Parts of Indiana/Ohio/Lower Michigan... As a lead/subtle mid-level short-wave trough shifts across the Midwest tonight, some strengthening of a southwesterly low-level jet is expected across this region. Resulting quasi-geostrophic ascent may support development of showers and isolated thunderstorms, atop a stable lower troposphere where steep mid-level lapse rates may support upwards of 1000 to 1500 J/kg CAPE through the cloud-bearing layer. With moderately strong mid-level west-southwesterly flow accompanying the short-wave trough, shear sufficient for mid-level updraft rotation is evident. With that said, model guidance -- both parameterized and convection-allowing -- in general indicates minimal overall convective development, in part due to questions regarding potential for ample moist advection/saturation above the inversion so as to support deep convective development. Still, presuming a few deeper convective cells can become organized/sustained tonight, severe-caliber hail would be possible. ..Goss/Broyles.. 02/26/2024 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 AM CST Mon Feb 26 2024 Valid 291200Z - 051200Z ...DISCUSSION... Severe potential will generally be low through Day 6/Sat. A weak upper shortwave trough will move from the southern Plains through the Southeast Days 4-5/Thu-Fri. However, boundary-layer moisture will remain limited by initially strong surface high pressure behind a cold frontal passage in the Day 3/Wed period. On Day 6/Sat, an upper trough is forecast to dig across the western U.S., emerging into the Plains on Day 7/Sun. As this occurs, southerly low-level flow will develop over the Gulf of Mexico into the Plains in response to a deepening lee cyclone. Low-level moisture will increase across parts of the southern Plains into the Mid-MS Valley through Day 8/Mon as a cold front sweeps eastward. Some increase in severe potential could accompany this system Days 7-8/Sun-Mon from the southern Plains toward the MS Valley. However, uncertainty remains regarding northward extent of quality moisture, and in timing of both surface and upper level features. While confidence currently is too low to include probabilities, they may become necessary in subsequent outlooks. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 AM CST Mon Feb 26 2024 Valid 291200Z - 051200Z ...DISCUSSION... Severe potential will generally be low through Day 6/Sat. A weak upper shortwave trough will move from the southern Plains through the Southeast Days 4-5/Thu-Fri. However, boundary-layer moisture will remain limited by initially strong surface high pressure behind a cold frontal passage in the Day 3/Wed period. On Day 6/Sat, an upper trough is forecast to dig across the western U.S., emerging into the Plains on Day 7/Sun. As this occurs, southerly low-level flow will develop over the Gulf of Mexico into the Plains in response to a deepening lee cyclone. Low-level moisture will increase across parts of the southern Plains into the Mid-MS Valley through Day 8/Mon as a cold front sweeps eastward. Some increase in severe potential could accompany this system Days 7-8/Sun-Mon from the southern Plains toward the MS Valley. However, uncertainty remains regarding northward extent of quality moisture, and in timing of both surface and upper level features. While confidence currently is too low to include probabilities, they may become necessary in subsequent outlooks. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 AM CST Mon Feb 26 2024 Valid 291200Z - 051200Z ...DISCUSSION... Severe potential will generally be low through Day 6/Sat. A weak upper shortwave trough will move from the southern Plains through the Southeast Days 4-5/Thu-Fri. However, boundary-layer moisture will remain limited by initially strong surface high pressure behind a cold frontal passage in the Day 3/Wed period. On Day 6/Sat, an upper trough is forecast to dig across the western U.S., emerging into the Plains on Day 7/Sun. As this occurs, southerly low-level flow will develop over the Gulf of Mexico into the Plains in response to a deepening lee cyclone. Low-level moisture will increase across parts of the southern Plains into the Mid-MS Valley through Day 8/Mon as a cold front sweeps eastward. Some increase in severe potential could accompany this system Days 7-8/Sun-Mon from the southern Plains toward the MS Valley. However, uncertainty remains regarding northward extent of quality moisture, and in timing of both surface and upper level features. While confidence currently is too low to include probabilities, they may become necessary in subsequent outlooks. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 AM CST Mon Feb 26 2024 Valid 291200Z - 051200Z ...DISCUSSION... Severe potential will generally be low through Day 6/Sat. A weak upper shortwave trough will move from the southern Plains through the Southeast Days 4-5/Thu-Fri. However, boundary-layer moisture will remain limited by initially strong surface high pressure behind a cold frontal passage in the Day 3/Wed period. On Day 6/Sat, an upper trough is forecast to dig across the western U.S., emerging into the Plains on Day 7/Sun. As this occurs, southerly low-level flow will develop over the Gulf of Mexico into the Plains in response to a deepening lee cyclone. Low-level moisture will increase across parts of the southern Plains into the Mid-MS Valley through Day 8/Mon as a cold front sweeps eastward. Some increase in severe potential could accompany this system Days 7-8/Sun-Mon from the southern Plains toward the MS Valley. However, uncertainty remains regarding northward extent of quality moisture, and in timing of both surface and upper level features. While confidence currently is too low to include probabilities, they may become necessary in subsequent outlooks. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 AM CST Mon Feb 26 2024 Valid 291200Z - 051200Z ...DISCUSSION... Severe potential will generally be low through Day 6/Sat. A weak upper shortwave trough will move from the southern Plains through the Southeast Days 4-5/Thu-Fri. However, boundary-layer moisture will remain limited by initially strong surface high pressure behind a cold frontal passage in the Day 3/Wed period. On Day 6/Sat, an upper trough is forecast to dig across the western U.S., emerging into the Plains on Day 7/Sun. As this occurs, southerly low-level flow will develop over the Gulf of Mexico into the Plains in response to a deepening lee cyclone. Low-level moisture will increase across parts of the southern Plains into the Mid-MS Valley through Day 8/Mon as a cold front sweeps eastward. Some increase in severe potential could accompany this system Days 7-8/Sun-Mon from the southern Plains toward the MS Valley. However, uncertainty remains regarding northward extent of quality moisture, and in timing of both surface and upper level features. While confidence currently is too low to include probabilities, they may become necessary in subsequent outlooks. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 AM CST Mon Feb 26 2024 Valid 291200Z - 051200Z ...DISCUSSION... Severe potential will generally be low through Day 6/Sat. A weak upper shortwave trough will move from the southern Plains through the Southeast Days 4-5/Thu-Fri. However, boundary-layer moisture will remain limited by initially strong surface high pressure behind a cold frontal passage in the Day 3/Wed period. On Day 6/Sat, an upper trough is forecast to dig across the western U.S., emerging into the Plains on Day 7/Sun. As this occurs, southerly low-level flow will develop over the Gulf of Mexico into the Plains in response to a deepening lee cyclone. Low-level moisture will increase across parts of the southern Plains into the Mid-MS Valley through Day 8/Mon as a cold front sweeps eastward. Some increase in severe potential could accompany this system Days 7-8/Sun-Mon from the southern Plains toward the MS Valley. However, uncertainty remains regarding northward extent of quality moisture, and in timing of both surface and upper level features. While confidence currently is too low to include probabilities, they may become necessary in subsequent outlooks. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0204 AM CST Mon Feb 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...Synopsis... Across the western US, an amplifying Pacific trough will begin to phase with intensifying southern stream flow as it crosses the southern and central Rockies into the Plains. A strong lee low will move over the central Plains with dry and breezy conditions likely behind a trailing dryline/surface pressure trough. Favorable meteorological conditions and at least somewhat receptive fuels should support widespread elevated to near-critical fire-weather concerns over parts of the southern Plains. ...southern Plains... As the aforementioned trough begins to move over the Plains early D2/Tuesday, strong low-level flow is expected to develop by mid morning. Westerly winds of 20-25 mph, with gusts of 30-35 mph, are possible across parts of western and central OK and the TX Panhandle. Despite dry downsloping and the unusually warm temperatures, increasing mid and high-level cloud cover may limit diurnal RH minimums to near 20-25%. Pre-greenup fuels have shown some drying over the previous days, but remain only partially receptive to broader fire spread despite the favorable meteorological conditions. Still, widespread elevated to near/briefly critical fire-weather conditions appear likely. The greatest confidence in potentially longer-lived critical conditions is across parts of western and central OK and the eastern TX Panhandle where the strongest winds are expected to overlap more receptive fuels for the greatest duration. Fire-weather concerns will begin to diminish later in the evening as a cold front rapidly moves south. Strong gusts may persist behind the front along with a rapid wind shift to north/northwesterly. Cooler temperatures and higher RH behind the front should quickly limit sustained fire-weather concerns through the overnight hours. ...Midwest... Farther to the northeast, gusty southwest winds and very warm/dry conditions are expected southwest of the advancing low across parts of MO and western IL. A pronounced low-level thermal ridge overlaying southwest winds of 20-30 mph may support brief elevated or locally critical fire-weather conditions Tuesday afternoon. Area fuels have shown increased dryness over the past several days, but remain partially receptive to fire spread. Thus, confidence in sustained fire-weather conditions is low. ..Lyons.. 02/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0204 AM CST Mon Feb 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...Synopsis... Across the western US, an amplifying Pacific trough will begin to phase with intensifying southern stream flow as it crosses the southern and central Rockies into the Plains. A strong lee low will move over the central Plains with dry and breezy conditions likely behind a trailing dryline/surface pressure trough. Favorable meteorological conditions and at least somewhat receptive fuels should support widespread elevated to near-critical fire-weather concerns over parts of the southern Plains. ...southern Plains... As the aforementioned trough begins to move over the Plains early D2/Tuesday, strong low-level flow is expected to develop by mid morning. Westerly winds of 20-25 mph, with gusts of 30-35 mph, are possible across parts of western and central OK and the TX Panhandle. Despite dry downsloping and the unusually warm temperatures, increasing mid and high-level cloud cover may limit diurnal RH minimums to near 20-25%. Pre-greenup fuels have shown some drying over the previous days, but remain only partially receptive to broader fire spread despite the favorable meteorological conditions. Still, widespread elevated to near/briefly critical fire-weather conditions appear likely. The greatest confidence in potentially longer-lived critical conditions is across parts of western and central OK and the eastern TX Panhandle where the strongest winds are expected to overlap more receptive fuels for the greatest duration. Fire-weather concerns will begin to diminish later in the evening as a cold front rapidly moves south. Strong gusts may persist behind the front along with a rapid wind shift to north/northwesterly. Cooler temperatures and higher RH behind the front should quickly limit sustained fire-weather concerns through the overnight hours. ...Midwest... Farther to the northeast, gusty southwest winds and very warm/dry conditions are expected southwest of the advancing low across parts of MO and western IL. A pronounced low-level thermal ridge overlaying southwest winds of 20-30 mph may support brief elevated or locally critical fire-weather conditions Tuesday afternoon. Area fuels have shown increased dryness over the past several days, but remain partially receptive to fire spread. Thus, confidence in sustained fire-weather conditions is low. ..Lyons.. 02/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0204 AM CST Mon Feb 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...Synopsis... Across the western US, an amplifying Pacific trough will begin to phase with intensifying southern stream flow as it crosses the southern and central Rockies into the Plains. A strong lee low will move over the central Plains with dry and breezy conditions likely behind a trailing dryline/surface pressure trough. Favorable meteorological conditions and at least somewhat receptive fuels should support widespread elevated to near-critical fire-weather concerns over parts of the southern Plains. ...southern Plains... As the aforementioned trough begins to move over the Plains early D2/Tuesday, strong low-level flow is expected to develop by mid morning. Westerly winds of 20-25 mph, with gusts of 30-35 mph, are possible across parts of western and central OK and the TX Panhandle. Despite dry downsloping and the unusually warm temperatures, increasing mid and high-level cloud cover may limit diurnal RH minimums to near 20-25%. Pre-greenup fuels have shown some drying over the previous days, but remain only partially receptive to broader fire spread despite the favorable meteorological conditions. Still, widespread elevated to near/briefly critical fire-weather conditions appear likely. The greatest confidence in potentially longer-lived critical conditions is across parts of western and central OK and the eastern TX Panhandle where the strongest winds are expected to overlap more receptive fuels for the greatest duration. Fire-weather concerns will begin to diminish later in the evening as a cold front rapidly moves south. Strong gusts may persist behind the front along with a rapid wind shift to north/northwesterly. Cooler temperatures and higher RH behind the front should quickly limit sustained fire-weather concerns through the overnight hours. ...Midwest... Farther to the northeast, gusty southwest winds and very warm/dry conditions are expected southwest of the advancing low across parts of MO and western IL. A pronounced low-level thermal ridge overlaying southwest winds of 20-30 mph may support brief elevated or locally critical fire-weather conditions Tuesday afternoon. Area fuels have shown increased dryness over the past several days, but remain partially receptive to fire spread. Thus, confidence in sustained fire-weather conditions is low. ..Lyons.. 02/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0204 AM CST Mon Feb 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...Synopsis... Across the western US, an amplifying Pacific trough will begin to phase with intensifying southern stream flow as it crosses the southern and central Rockies into the Plains. A strong lee low will move over the central Plains with dry and breezy conditions likely behind a trailing dryline/surface pressure trough. Favorable meteorological conditions and at least somewhat receptive fuels should support widespread elevated to near-critical fire-weather concerns over parts of the southern Plains. ...southern Plains... As the aforementioned trough begins to move over the Plains early D2/Tuesday, strong low-level flow is expected to develop by mid morning. Westerly winds of 20-25 mph, with gusts of 30-35 mph, are possible across parts of western and central OK and the TX Panhandle. Despite dry downsloping and the unusually warm temperatures, increasing mid and high-level cloud cover may limit diurnal RH minimums to near 20-25%. Pre-greenup fuels have shown some drying over the previous days, but remain only partially receptive to broader fire spread despite the favorable meteorological conditions. Still, widespread elevated to near/briefly critical fire-weather conditions appear likely. The greatest confidence in potentially longer-lived critical conditions is across parts of western and central OK and the eastern TX Panhandle where the strongest winds are expected to overlap more receptive fuels for the greatest duration. Fire-weather concerns will begin to diminish later in the evening as a cold front rapidly moves south. Strong gusts may persist behind the front along with a rapid wind shift to north/northwesterly. Cooler temperatures and higher RH behind the front should quickly limit sustained fire-weather concerns through the overnight hours. ...Midwest... Farther to the northeast, gusty southwest winds and very warm/dry conditions are expected southwest of the advancing low across parts of MO and western IL. A pronounced low-level thermal ridge overlaying southwest winds of 20-30 mph may support brief elevated or locally critical fire-weather conditions Tuesday afternoon. Area fuels have shown increased dryness over the past several days, but remain partially receptive to fire spread. Thus, confidence in sustained fire-weather conditions is low. ..Lyons.. 02/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0204 AM CST Mon Feb 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...Synopsis... Across the western US, an amplifying Pacific trough will begin to phase with intensifying southern stream flow as it crosses the southern and central Rockies into the Plains. A strong lee low will move over the central Plains with dry and breezy conditions likely behind a trailing dryline/surface pressure trough. Favorable meteorological conditions and at least somewhat receptive fuels should support widespread elevated to near-critical fire-weather concerns over parts of the southern Plains. ...southern Plains... As the aforementioned trough begins to move over the Plains early D2/Tuesday, strong low-level flow is expected to develop by mid morning. Westerly winds of 20-25 mph, with gusts of 30-35 mph, are possible across parts of western and central OK and the TX Panhandle. Despite dry downsloping and the unusually warm temperatures, increasing mid and high-level cloud cover may limit diurnal RH minimums to near 20-25%. Pre-greenup fuels have shown some drying over the previous days, but remain only partially receptive to broader fire spread despite the favorable meteorological conditions. Still, widespread elevated to near/briefly critical fire-weather conditions appear likely. The greatest confidence in potentially longer-lived critical conditions is across parts of western and central OK and the eastern TX Panhandle where the strongest winds are expected to overlap more receptive fuels for the greatest duration. Fire-weather concerns will begin to diminish later in the evening as a cold front rapidly moves south. Strong gusts may persist behind the front along with a rapid wind shift to north/northwesterly. Cooler temperatures and higher RH behind the front should quickly limit sustained fire-weather concerns through the overnight hours. ...Midwest... Farther to the northeast, gusty southwest winds and very warm/dry conditions are expected southwest of the advancing low across parts of MO and western IL. A pronounced low-level thermal ridge overlaying southwest winds of 20-30 mph may support brief elevated or locally critical fire-weather conditions Tuesday afternoon. Area fuels have shown increased dryness over the past several days, but remain partially receptive to fire spread. Thus, confidence in sustained fire-weather conditions is low. ..Lyons.. 02/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0204 AM CST Mon Feb 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...Synopsis... Across the western US, an amplifying Pacific trough will begin to phase with intensifying southern stream flow as it crosses the southern and central Rockies into the Plains. A strong lee low will move over the central Plains with dry and breezy conditions likely behind a trailing dryline/surface pressure trough. Favorable meteorological conditions and at least somewhat receptive fuels should support widespread elevated to near-critical fire-weather concerns over parts of the southern Plains. ...southern Plains... As the aforementioned trough begins to move over the Plains early D2/Tuesday, strong low-level flow is expected to develop by mid morning. Westerly winds of 20-25 mph, with gusts of 30-35 mph, are possible across parts of western and central OK and the TX Panhandle. Despite dry downsloping and the unusually warm temperatures, increasing mid and high-level cloud cover may limit diurnal RH minimums to near 20-25%. Pre-greenup fuels have shown some drying over the previous days, but remain only partially receptive to broader fire spread despite the favorable meteorological conditions. Still, widespread elevated to near/briefly critical fire-weather conditions appear likely. The greatest confidence in potentially longer-lived critical conditions is across parts of western and central OK and the eastern TX Panhandle where the strongest winds are expected to overlap more receptive fuels for the greatest duration. Fire-weather concerns will begin to diminish later in the evening as a cold front rapidly moves south. Strong gusts may persist behind the front along with a rapid wind shift to north/northwesterly. Cooler temperatures and higher RH behind the front should quickly limit sustained fire-weather concerns through the overnight hours. ...Midwest... Farther to the northeast, gusty southwest winds and very warm/dry conditions are expected southwest of the advancing low across parts of MO and western IL. A pronounced low-level thermal ridge overlaying southwest winds of 20-30 mph may support brief elevated or locally critical fire-weather conditions Tuesday afternoon. Area fuels have shown increased dryness over the past several days, but remain partially receptive to fire spread. Thus, confidence in sustained fire-weather conditions is low. ..Lyons.. 02/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 AM CST Mon Feb 26 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.... ...Synopsis... Strong westerly flow aloft is forecast to overspread much of the central US as an upstream Pacific trough begins to merge with an enhanced subtropical jet. A strong lee low and trailing surface trough will develop across the Plains bolstering surface winds. Widespread low humidity and warm temperatures accompanying the strong winds will support elevated to critical fire-weather conditions. ...Southern and central Plains... Increasingly strong flow aloft is expected to overspread the southern and central Rockies/High Plains through the day today. Aided by a strengthening lee trough and the flow aloft, gusty west/southwesterly surface winds are likely across much of the Plains. Unusually warm surface temperatures in the 70s and 80s F along with downslope drying will favor afternoon RH values of 15-20%. Meteorological conditions will likely support widespread critical fire-weather conditions across parts of eastern CO/NM into west TX and OK where area fuels have undergone significant drying. Farther north, stronger downslope winds are expected in the lee of the central Rockies along with RH below 20%. Updated fuel guidance points to slightly more receptive fuels than the previous days. Widespread elevated to near-critical fire-weather conditions are possible from eastern WY and western NE to portions of the Midwest. ..Lyons.. 02/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 AM CST Mon Feb 26 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.... ...Synopsis... Strong westerly flow aloft is forecast to overspread much of the central US as an upstream Pacific trough begins to merge with an enhanced subtropical jet. A strong lee low and trailing surface trough will develop across the Plains bolstering surface winds. Widespread low humidity and warm temperatures accompanying the strong winds will support elevated to critical fire-weather conditions. ...Southern and central Plains... Increasingly strong flow aloft is expected to overspread the southern and central Rockies/High Plains through the day today. Aided by a strengthening lee trough and the flow aloft, gusty west/southwesterly surface winds are likely across much of the Plains. Unusually warm surface temperatures in the 70s and 80s F along with downslope drying will favor afternoon RH values of 15-20%. Meteorological conditions will likely support widespread critical fire-weather conditions across parts of eastern CO/NM into west TX and OK where area fuels have undergone significant drying. Farther north, stronger downslope winds are expected in the lee of the central Rockies along with RH below 20%. Updated fuel guidance points to slightly more receptive fuels than the previous days. Widespread elevated to near-critical fire-weather conditions are possible from eastern WY and western NE to portions of the Midwest. ..Lyons.. 02/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 AM CST Mon Feb 26 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.... ...Synopsis... Strong westerly flow aloft is forecast to overspread much of the central US as an upstream Pacific trough begins to merge with an enhanced subtropical jet. A strong lee low and trailing surface trough will develop across the Plains bolstering surface winds. Widespread low humidity and warm temperatures accompanying the strong winds will support elevated to critical fire-weather conditions. ...Southern and central Plains... Increasingly strong flow aloft is expected to overspread the southern and central Rockies/High Plains through the day today. Aided by a strengthening lee trough and the flow aloft, gusty west/southwesterly surface winds are likely across much of the Plains. Unusually warm surface temperatures in the 70s and 80s F along with downslope drying will favor afternoon RH values of 15-20%. Meteorological conditions will likely support widespread critical fire-weather conditions across parts of eastern CO/NM into west TX and OK where area fuels have undergone significant drying. Farther north, stronger downslope winds are expected in the lee of the central Rockies along with RH below 20%. Updated fuel guidance points to slightly more receptive fuels than the previous days. Widespread elevated to near-critical fire-weather conditions are possible from eastern WY and western NE to portions of the Midwest. ..Lyons.. 02/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more