Severe Storms

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1138 PM CST Sun Feb 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION... ...SUMMARY... Isolated late-night hail is possible across portions of the central Great Lakes region. ...Central Great Lakes Region... Strong northern-stream trough will dig southeast into the Great Basin by the end of the period. This evolution will suppress the height fields across most of the western US, and some coupling with the southern branch should occur over the southern Rockies region by 27/12z. Several low-amplitude disturbances will eject northeast within the southern current into the mid MS Valley region during the overnight hours. One of these features is expected to encourage significant strengthening of the LLJ across IN/lower MI by midnight. Late this evening, PW values remain seasonally low across most of the CONUS, with only a small region of near-1" values observed across deep south TX. While significant moisture is not expected to surge particularly fast toward high latitudes, sustained southerly low-level flow will permit gradual moistening across the MS Valley, and 1" PW values may approach central IN by midnight. Additionally, very steep midlevel lapse rates will be noted as this moisture advances north. Forecast soundings show substantial moistening at 850mb into this region which results in MUCAPE values exceeding 1500 J/kg where dew points are able to rise to near 8 C. Scattered convection should develop in response to the approaching disturbance and increasing LLJ, most likely after midnight. Some organization appears possible given the shear, and perhaps a few weak supercells may develop. If so, some risk for hail around 1" appears possible with the strongest updrafts. ..Darrow/Lyons.. 02/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1138 PM CST Sun Feb 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION... ...SUMMARY... Isolated late-night hail is possible across portions of the central Great Lakes region. ...Central Great Lakes Region... Strong northern-stream trough will dig southeast into the Great Basin by the end of the period. This evolution will suppress the height fields across most of the western US, and some coupling with the southern branch should occur over the southern Rockies region by 27/12z. Several low-amplitude disturbances will eject northeast within the southern current into the mid MS Valley region during the overnight hours. One of these features is expected to encourage significant strengthening of the LLJ across IN/lower MI by midnight. Late this evening, PW values remain seasonally low across most of the CONUS, with only a small region of near-1" values observed across deep south TX. While significant moisture is not expected to surge particularly fast toward high latitudes, sustained southerly low-level flow will permit gradual moistening across the MS Valley, and 1" PW values may approach central IN by midnight. Additionally, very steep midlevel lapse rates will be noted as this moisture advances north. Forecast soundings show substantial moistening at 850mb into this region which results in MUCAPE values exceeding 1500 J/kg where dew points are able to rise to near 8 C. Scattered convection should develop in response to the approaching disturbance and increasing LLJ, most likely after midnight. Some organization appears possible given the shear, and perhaps a few weak supercells may develop. If so, some risk for hail around 1" appears possible with the strongest updrafts. ..Darrow/Lyons.. 02/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1138 PM CST Sun Feb 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION... ...SUMMARY... Isolated late-night hail is possible across portions of the central Great Lakes region. ...Central Great Lakes Region... Strong northern-stream trough will dig southeast into the Great Basin by the end of the period. This evolution will suppress the height fields across most of the western US, and some coupling with the southern branch should occur over the southern Rockies region by 27/12z. Several low-amplitude disturbances will eject northeast within the southern current into the mid MS Valley region during the overnight hours. One of these features is expected to encourage significant strengthening of the LLJ across IN/lower MI by midnight. Late this evening, PW values remain seasonally low across most of the CONUS, with only a small region of near-1" values observed across deep south TX. While significant moisture is not expected to surge particularly fast toward high latitudes, sustained southerly low-level flow will permit gradual moistening across the MS Valley, and 1" PW values may approach central IN by midnight. Additionally, very steep midlevel lapse rates will be noted as this moisture advances north. Forecast soundings show substantial moistening at 850mb into this region which results in MUCAPE values exceeding 1500 J/kg where dew points are able to rise to near 8 C. Scattered convection should develop in response to the approaching disturbance and increasing LLJ, most likely after midnight. Some organization appears possible given the shear, and perhaps a few weak supercells may develop. If so, some risk for hail around 1" appears possible with the strongest updrafts. ..Darrow/Lyons.. 02/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1138 PM CST Sun Feb 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION... ...SUMMARY... Isolated late-night hail is possible across portions of the central Great Lakes region. ...Central Great Lakes Region... Strong northern-stream trough will dig southeast into the Great Basin by the end of the period. This evolution will suppress the height fields across most of the western US, and some coupling with the southern branch should occur over the southern Rockies region by 27/12z. Several low-amplitude disturbances will eject northeast within the southern current into the mid MS Valley region during the overnight hours. One of these features is expected to encourage significant strengthening of the LLJ across IN/lower MI by midnight. Late this evening, PW values remain seasonally low across most of the CONUS, with only a small region of near-1" values observed across deep south TX. While significant moisture is not expected to surge particularly fast toward high latitudes, sustained southerly low-level flow will permit gradual moistening across the MS Valley, and 1" PW values may approach central IN by midnight. Additionally, very steep midlevel lapse rates will be noted as this moisture advances north. Forecast soundings show substantial moistening at 850mb into this region which results in MUCAPE values exceeding 1500 J/kg where dew points are able to rise to near 8 C. Scattered convection should develop in response to the approaching disturbance and increasing LLJ, most likely after midnight. Some organization appears possible given the shear, and perhaps a few weak supercells may develop. If so, some risk for hail around 1" appears possible with the strongest updrafts. ..Darrow/Lyons.. 02/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0636 PM CST Sun Feb 25 2024 Valid 260100Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may occur tonight across parts of coastal/northwest Washington. ...01z Update... Very cold midlevel temperatures (-30C to -38C at 500mb) will spread across northwest WA later tonight as a strong polar jet sags south into this region. NAM forecast sounding for UIL at 06z exhibits SBCAPE on the order of 100 J/kg with an EL temperature around -23C, near 600mb. Lapse rates will continue to steepen, and EL heights should increase through 12z. While boundary-layer conditions will remain cool, marine influences should contribute to instability necessary for a few flashes of lightning within the deepest convection. No changes are warranted to previous outlook. ..Darrow.. 02/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0636 PM CST Sun Feb 25 2024 Valid 260100Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may occur tonight across parts of coastal/northwest Washington. ...01z Update... Very cold midlevel temperatures (-30C to -38C at 500mb) will spread across northwest WA later tonight as a strong polar jet sags south into this region. NAM forecast sounding for UIL at 06z exhibits SBCAPE on the order of 100 J/kg with an EL temperature around -23C, near 600mb. Lapse rates will continue to steepen, and EL heights should increase through 12z. While boundary-layer conditions will remain cool, marine influences should contribute to instability necessary for a few flashes of lightning within the deepest convection. No changes are warranted to previous outlook. ..Darrow.. 02/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0636 PM CST Sun Feb 25 2024 Valid 260100Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may occur tonight across parts of coastal/northwest Washington. ...01z Update... Very cold midlevel temperatures (-30C to -38C at 500mb) will spread across northwest WA later tonight as a strong polar jet sags south into this region. NAM forecast sounding for UIL at 06z exhibits SBCAPE on the order of 100 J/kg with an EL temperature around -23C, near 600mb. Lapse rates will continue to steepen, and EL heights should increase through 12z. While boundary-layer conditions will remain cool, marine influences should contribute to instability necessary for a few flashes of lightning within the deepest convection. No changes are warranted to previous outlook. ..Darrow.. 02/26/2024 Read more

No watches are valid as of Sun Feb 25 22:20:02 UTC 2024.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Feb 25 22:20:02 UTC 2024.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0314 PM CST Sun Feb 25 2024 Valid 271200Z - 041200Z Northern and southern stream shortwave troughs are expected to phase over the central Plains into the Ozarks Tuesday/Wednesday. A surface front will continue southward into the southern Plains, stalling in the northern Gulf. Broad ridging aloft will then become the main feature across the CONUS through late week. As the weekend approaches, another strong trough is forecast to dig into the southwestern U.S. and eventually eject into the Plains by the beginning of the following week. ...Southern Plains... A strong surface pressure gradient along with coupled low-level and mid-level jets will lead to surface winds of 20-30 mph (locally 30-35 mph). With cloud cover becoming more prevalent, temperatures will likely be cooler than on previous days and RH will subsequently be slightly increased. Even so, the strong wind field and increasing fuel dryness will promote elevated to near-critical fire weather in the region on Tuesday. Winds will shift to northerly as the front passes, but this should not occur until after dark. ...Southern High Plains... Model guidance continues to depict a strong trough moving into the Southwest next weekend. Given the large-scale features of note, some degree of predictability should exist even towards the end of the forecast period. Dry and windy conditions could approach critical thresholds as soon as Saturday, but, at least currently, are expected to peak on Sunday as the mid-level jet ejects into the Texas Panhandle/South Plains. As this is a critical fire weather pattern for this region, 40% probabilities will be introduced for Sunday. As timing could change with newer guidance over the coming days, some adjustments are possible. ..Wendt.. 02/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0314 PM CST Sun Feb 25 2024 Valid 271200Z - 041200Z Northern and southern stream shortwave troughs are expected to phase over the central Plains into the Ozarks Tuesday/Wednesday. A surface front will continue southward into the southern Plains, stalling in the northern Gulf. Broad ridging aloft will then become the main feature across the CONUS through late week. As the weekend approaches, another strong trough is forecast to dig into the southwestern U.S. and eventually eject into the Plains by the beginning of the following week. ...Southern Plains... A strong surface pressure gradient along with coupled low-level and mid-level jets will lead to surface winds of 20-30 mph (locally 30-35 mph). With cloud cover becoming more prevalent, temperatures will likely be cooler than on previous days and RH will subsequently be slightly increased. Even so, the strong wind field and increasing fuel dryness will promote elevated to near-critical fire weather in the region on Tuesday. Winds will shift to northerly as the front passes, but this should not occur until after dark. ...Southern High Plains... Model guidance continues to depict a strong trough moving into the Southwest next weekend. Given the large-scale features of note, some degree of predictability should exist even towards the end of the forecast period. Dry and windy conditions could approach critical thresholds as soon as Saturday, but, at least currently, are expected to peak on Sunday as the mid-level jet ejects into the Texas Panhandle/South Plains. As this is a critical fire weather pattern for this region, 40% probabilities will be introduced for Sunday. As timing could change with newer guidance over the coming days, some adjustments are possible. ..Wendt.. 02/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0314 PM CST Sun Feb 25 2024 Valid 271200Z - 041200Z Northern and southern stream shortwave troughs are expected to phase over the central Plains into the Ozarks Tuesday/Wednesday. A surface front will continue southward into the southern Plains, stalling in the northern Gulf. Broad ridging aloft will then become the main feature across the CONUS through late week. As the weekend approaches, another strong trough is forecast to dig into the southwestern U.S. and eventually eject into the Plains by the beginning of the following week. ...Southern Plains... A strong surface pressure gradient along with coupled low-level and mid-level jets will lead to surface winds of 20-30 mph (locally 30-35 mph). With cloud cover becoming more prevalent, temperatures will likely be cooler than on previous days and RH will subsequently be slightly increased. Even so, the strong wind field and increasing fuel dryness will promote elevated to near-critical fire weather in the region on Tuesday. Winds will shift to northerly as the front passes, but this should not occur until after dark. ...Southern High Plains... Model guidance continues to depict a strong trough moving into the Southwest next weekend. Given the large-scale features of note, some degree of predictability should exist even towards the end of the forecast period. Dry and windy conditions could approach critical thresholds as soon as Saturday, but, at least currently, are expected to peak on Sunday as the mid-level jet ejects into the Texas Panhandle/South Plains. As this is a critical fire weather pattern for this region, 40% probabilities will be introduced for Sunday. As timing could change with newer guidance over the coming days, some adjustments are possible. ..Wendt.. 02/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0314 PM CST Sun Feb 25 2024 Valid 271200Z - 041200Z Northern and southern stream shortwave troughs are expected to phase over the central Plains into the Ozarks Tuesday/Wednesday. A surface front will continue southward into the southern Plains, stalling in the northern Gulf. Broad ridging aloft will then become the main feature across the CONUS through late week. As the weekend approaches, another strong trough is forecast to dig into the southwestern U.S. and eventually eject into the Plains by the beginning of the following week. ...Southern Plains... A strong surface pressure gradient along with coupled low-level and mid-level jets will lead to surface winds of 20-30 mph (locally 30-35 mph). With cloud cover becoming more prevalent, temperatures will likely be cooler than on previous days and RH will subsequently be slightly increased. Even so, the strong wind field and increasing fuel dryness will promote elevated to near-critical fire weather in the region on Tuesday. Winds will shift to northerly as the front passes, but this should not occur until after dark. ...Southern High Plains... Model guidance continues to depict a strong trough moving into the Southwest next weekend. Given the large-scale features of note, some degree of predictability should exist even towards the end of the forecast period. Dry and windy conditions could approach critical thresholds as soon as Saturday, but, at least currently, are expected to peak on Sunday as the mid-level jet ejects into the Texas Panhandle/South Plains. As this is a critical fire weather pattern for this region, 40% probabilities will be introduced for Sunday. As timing could change with newer guidance over the coming days, some adjustments are possible. ..Wendt.. 02/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0314 PM CST Sun Feb 25 2024 Valid 271200Z - 041200Z Northern and southern stream shortwave troughs are expected to phase over the central Plains into the Ozarks Tuesday/Wednesday. A surface front will continue southward into the southern Plains, stalling in the northern Gulf. Broad ridging aloft will then become the main feature across the CONUS through late week. As the weekend approaches, another strong trough is forecast to dig into the southwestern U.S. and eventually eject into the Plains by the beginning of the following week. ...Southern Plains... A strong surface pressure gradient along with coupled low-level and mid-level jets will lead to surface winds of 20-30 mph (locally 30-35 mph). With cloud cover becoming more prevalent, temperatures will likely be cooler than on previous days and RH will subsequently be slightly increased. Even so, the strong wind field and increasing fuel dryness will promote elevated to near-critical fire weather in the region on Tuesday. Winds will shift to northerly as the front passes, but this should not occur until after dark. ...Southern High Plains... Model guidance continues to depict a strong trough moving into the Southwest next weekend. Given the large-scale features of note, some degree of predictability should exist even towards the end of the forecast period. Dry and windy conditions could approach critical thresholds as soon as Saturday, but, at least currently, are expected to peak on Sunday as the mid-level jet ejects into the Texas Panhandle/South Plains. As this is a critical fire weather pattern for this region, 40% probabilities will be introduced for Sunday. As timing could change with newer guidance over the coming days, some adjustments are possible. ..Wendt.. 02/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 PM CST Sun Feb 25 2024 Valid 252000Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may occur tonight across parts of coastal/northwest Washington. ...Discussion... No change was made to the previous convective outlook. ..Smith.. 02/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1021 AM CST Sun Feb 25 2024/ ...Synopsis... A split-flow pattern is present across the CONUS today with surface high pressure and a dry air mass in place across most of the country except for the Northwest. A mid-level trough will amplify across the Pacific Northwest through the period which will bring significant rain and mountain snow. As cold air overspreads the region tonight, enough destabilization may occur to support some lightning strikes with cellular convection across the ocean, but perhaps also inland across western Washington. Elsewhere, no thunderstorms are anticipated. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 PM CST Sun Feb 25 2024 Valid 252000Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may occur tonight across parts of coastal/northwest Washington. ...Discussion... No change was made to the previous convective outlook. ..Smith.. 02/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1021 AM CST Sun Feb 25 2024/ ...Synopsis... A split-flow pattern is present across the CONUS today with surface high pressure and a dry air mass in place across most of the country except for the Northwest. A mid-level trough will amplify across the Pacific Northwest through the period which will bring significant rain and mountain snow. As cold air overspreads the region tonight, enough destabilization may occur to support some lightning strikes with cellular convection across the ocean, but perhaps also inland across western Washington. Elsewhere, no thunderstorms are anticipated. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 PM CST Sun Feb 25 2024 Valid 252000Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may occur tonight across parts of coastal/northwest Washington. ...Discussion... No change was made to the previous convective outlook. ..Smith.. 02/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1021 AM CST Sun Feb 25 2024/ ...Synopsis... A split-flow pattern is present across the CONUS today with surface high pressure and a dry air mass in place across most of the country except for the Northwest. A mid-level trough will amplify across the Pacific Northwest through the period which will bring significant rain and mountain snow. As cold air overspreads the region tonight, enough destabilization may occur to support some lightning strikes with cellular convection across the ocean, but perhaps also inland across western Washington. Elsewhere, no thunderstorms are anticipated. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 PM CST Sun Feb 25 2024 Valid 252000Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may occur tonight across parts of coastal/northwest Washington. ...Discussion... No change was made to the previous convective outlook. ..Smith.. 02/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1021 AM CST Sun Feb 25 2024/ ...Synopsis... A split-flow pattern is present across the CONUS today with surface high pressure and a dry air mass in place across most of the country except for the Northwest. A mid-level trough will amplify across the Pacific Northwest through the period which will bring significant rain and mountain snow. As cold air overspreads the region tonight, enough destabilization may occur to support some lightning strikes with cellular convection across the ocean, but perhaps also inland across western Washington. Elsewhere, no thunderstorms are anticipated. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 PM CST Sun Feb 25 2024 Valid 252000Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may occur tonight across parts of coastal/northwest Washington. ...Discussion... No change was made to the previous convective outlook. ..Smith.. 02/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1021 AM CST Sun Feb 25 2024/ ...Synopsis... A split-flow pattern is present across the CONUS today with surface high pressure and a dry air mass in place across most of the country except for the Northwest. A mid-level trough will amplify across the Pacific Northwest through the period which will bring significant rain and mountain snow. As cold air overspreads the region tonight, enough destabilization may occur to support some lightning strikes with cellular convection across the ocean, but perhaps also inland across western Washington. Elsewhere, no thunderstorms are anticipated. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 PM CST Sun Feb 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND SOUTH PLAINS... The Elevated area has been expanded into more of the central Plains and Midwest. Surface winds should reach 15-20 mph ahead of the surface front with RH likely falling to around 20-25% (locally lower, particularly with westward extent). Elsewhere, only minor modifications were made based on the most recent guidance. ..Wendt.. 02/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CST Sun Feb 25 2024/ ...Synopsis... Split mid-level flow over the western and central US will gradually coalesce into broad and strong southwesterly flow as a Pacific trough digs south over the northern Great Basin. Several weak perturbations within the amplified sub-tropical jet will move across the southern and central Rockies intensifying a robust surface lee trough. Increasing downslope pressure gradients and momentum transfer from the flow aloft will bolster strong surface winds across the southern and central High Plains. With unusually warm and dry conditions also present, widespread elevated and critical fire-weather conditions are expected over the southern High Plains. ...Southern and central High Plains... As flow aloft strengthens and gradually becomes southwesterly, lee troughing should rapidly intensify across the southern and central High Plains. Downslope winds of 25-30 mph appear likely Monday afternoon across parts of eastern NM, southeastern CO and western TX/OK. Coincident with temperatures in the 70s to 80s F, afternoon RH values will fall to 15-20%. Intensifying dryness in area fuels is expected to support the risk for fire spread in combination with the aforementioned meteorological conditions. Widespread elevated to critical fire-weather concerns appear likely for the southern and central High Plains. Localized fire-weather concerns are also possible farther north into parts of eastern WY and western NE, though fuels here are less receptive and uncertainty is higher. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more