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1 year 5 months ago
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0612 PM CST Sat Feb 24 2024
Valid 250100Z - 251200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast the rest of tonight.
...01z Update...
Northwesterly flow is deepening across the Carolinas this evening as
the primary corridor of low-level convergence focuses offshore in
response to the progressive short-wave trough. While a few showers
will linger across Coastal Carolinas this evening, the prospect for
lightning is lessening with this activity given the weakening
low-level lapse rates/buoyancy (nocturnal cooling) and downstream
convergence.
..Darrow.. 02/25/2024
Read more
1 year 5 months ago
No watches are valid as of Sat Feb 24 23:31:01 UTC 2024.
1 year 5 months ago
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Feb 24 23:31:01 UTC 2024.
1 year 5 months ago
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0306 PM CST Sat Feb 24 2024
Valid 261200Z - 031200Z
A split-flow upper-level pattern will be present to begin the new
week. A trough will be in the process of digging into the Great
Basin while southern stream flow remains strong across the southern
Rockies. The primary trough is forecast to phase with a weaker
southern stream feature over the Plains by midweek. Large-scale
ridging will then encompass much of the CONUS as the amplifying
trough moves offshore late this coming week. Guidance then suggests
general troughing in the West that will slowly shift eastward with
time.
...Central/Southern High Plains...
The approach of the early-week trough and continued strong southern
stream flow across the southern Rockies will promote a moderately
strong surface pressure gradient on Monday across the regions.
Though mid/high-level cloud cover casts some uncertainty on RH
reductions, surface winds of 20-25 mph appear probable with at least
a few hours of critically low RH for some areas. Surface winds will
also be enhanced across parts of eastern Wyoming into Nebraska, but
RH reductions are more uncertain on top of currently low fuel
receptiveness.
For Tuesday, surface winds ahead of the cold front moving southward
will be stronger than Monday. Winds of 20-30 mph can be expected
with locally greater speeds possible. Due to increasing cloud cover,
temperatures are likely to be cooler, limiting RH reductions.
However, given the wind magnitudes, 40% probabilities will be
maintained. The cold front will eventually pass and RH will increase
rapidly. Guidance is in agreement that this will not occur until
early evening.
As the cold front passes and the surface high shifts to the east by
Thursday, a few days of dry, southerly return flow will be possible
across the southern High Plains into parts of the central Plains.
The overall synoptic pattern should have some degree of
predictability and precipitation in these areas should be
minimal/light. However, potential for critical fire weather is
uncertain given the lack of stronger large-scale features. These
areas will continue to be monitored in the coming days.
..Wendt.. 02/24/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
1 year 5 months ago
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0306 PM CST Sat Feb 24 2024
Valid 261200Z - 031200Z
A split-flow upper-level pattern will be present to begin the new
week. A trough will be in the process of digging into the Great
Basin while southern stream flow remains strong across the southern
Rockies. The primary trough is forecast to phase with a weaker
southern stream feature over the Plains by midweek. Large-scale
ridging will then encompass much of the CONUS as the amplifying
trough moves offshore late this coming week. Guidance then suggests
general troughing in the West that will slowly shift eastward with
time.
...Central/Southern High Plains...
The approach of the early-week trough and continued strong southern
stream flow across the southern Rockies will promote a moderately
strong surface pressure gradient on Monday across the regions.
Though mid/high-level cloud cover casts some uncertainty on RH
reductions, surface winds of 20-25 mph appear probable with at least
a few hours of critically low RH for some areas. Surface winds will
also be enhanced across parts of eastern Wyoming into Nebraska, but
RH reductions are more uncertain on top of currently low fuel
receptiveness.
For Tuesday, surface winds ahead of the cold front moving southward
will be stronger than Monday. Winds of 20-30 mph can be expected
with locally greater speeds possible. Due to increasing cloud cover,
temperatures are likely to be cooler, limiting RH reductions.
However, given the wind magnitudes, 40% probabilities will be
maintained. The cold front will eventually pass and RH will increase
rapidly. Guidance is in agreement that this will not occur until
early evening.
As the cold front passes and the surface high shifts to the east by
Thursday, a few days of dry, southerly return flow will be possible
across the southern High Plains into parts of the central Plains.
The overall synoptic pattern should have some degree of
predictability and precipitation in these areas should be
minimal/light. However, potential for critical fire weather is
uncertain given the lack of stronger large-scale features. These
areas will continue to be monitored in the coming days.
..Wendt.. 02/24/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
1 year 5 months ago
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0306 PM CST Sat Feb 24 2024
Valid 261200Z - 031200Z
A split-flow upper-level pattern will be present to begin the new
week. A trough will be in the process of digging into the Great
Basin while southern stream flow remains strong across the southern
Rockies. The primary trough is forecast to phase with a weaker
southern stream feature over the Plains by midweek. Large-scale
ridging will then encompass much of the CONUS as the amplifying
trough moves offshore late this coming week. Guidance then suggests
general troughing in the West that will slowly shift eastward with
time.
...Central/Southern High Plains...
The approach of the early-week trough and continued strong southern
stream flow across the southern Rockies will promote a moderately
strong surface pressure gradient on Monday across the regions.
Though mid/high-level cloud cover casts some uncertainty on RH
reductions, surface winds of 20-25 mph appear probable with at least
a few hours of critically low RH for some areas. Surface winds will
also be enhanced across parts of eastern Wyoming into Nebraska, but
RH reductions are more uncertain on top of currently low fuel
receptiveness.
For Tuesday, surface winds ahead of the cold front moving southward
will be stronger than Monday. Winds of 20-30 mph can be expected
with locally greater speeds possible. Due to increasing cloud cover,
temperatures are likely to be cooler, limiting RH reductions.
However, given the wind magnitudes, 40% probabilities will be
maintained. The cold front will eventually pass and RH will increase
rapidly. Guidance is in agreement that this will not occur until
early evening.
As the cold front passes and the surface high shifts to the east by
Thursday, a few days of dry, southerly return flow will be possible
across the southern High Plains into parts of the central Plains.
The overall synoptic pattern should have some degree of
predictability and precipitation in these areas should be
minimal/light. However, potential for critical fire weather is
uncertain given the lack of stronger large-scale features. These
areas will continue to be monitored in the coming days.
..Wendt.. 02/24/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
1 year 5 months ago
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0306 PM CST Sat Feb 24 2024
Valid 261200Z - 031200Z
A split-flow upper-level pattern will be present to begin the new
week. A trough will be in the process of digging into the Great
Basin while southern stream flow remains strong across the southern
Rockies. The primary trough is forecast to phase with a weaker
southern stream feature over the Plains by midweek. Large-scale
ridging will then encompass much of the CONUS as the amplifying
trough moves offshore late this coming week. Guidance then suggests
general troughing in the West that will slowly shift eastward with
time.
...Central/Southern High Plains...
The approach of the early-week trough and continued strong southern
stream flow across the southern Rockies will promote a moderately
strong surface pressure gradient on Monday across the regions.
Though mid/high-level cloud cover casts some uncertainty on RH
reductions, surface winds of 20-25 mph appear probable with at least
a few hours of critically low RH for some areas. Surface winds will
also be enhanced across parts of eastern Wyoming into Nebraska, but
RH reductions are more uncertain on top of currently low fuel
receptiveness.
For Tuesday, surface winds ahead of the cold front moving southward
will be stronger than Monday. Winds of 20-30 mph can be expected
with locally greater speeds possible. Due to increasing cloud cover,
temperatures are likely to be cooler, limiting RH reductions.
However, given the wind magnitudes, 40% probabilities will be
maintained. The cold front will eventually pass and RH will increase
rapidly. Guidance is in agreement that this will not occur until
early evening.
As the cold front passes and the surface high shifts to the east by
Thursday, a few days of dry, southerly return flow will be possible
across the southern High Plains into parts of the central Plains.
The overall synoptic pattern should have some degree of
predictability and precipitation in these areas should be
minimal/light. However, potential for critical fire weather is
uncertain given the lack of stronger large-scale features. These
areas will continue to be monitored in the coming days.
..Wendt.. 02/24/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
1 year 5 months ago
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0306 PM CST Sat Feb 24 2024
Valid 261200Z - 031200Z
A split-flow upper-level pattern will be present to begin the new
week. A trough will be in the process of digging into the Great
Basin while southern stream flow remains strong across the southern
Rockies. The primary trough is forecast to phase with a weaker
southern stream feature over the Plains by midweek. Large-scale
ridging will then encompass much of the CONUS as the amplifying
trough moves offshore late this coming week. Guidance then suggests
general troughing in the West that will slowly shift eastward with
time.
...Central/Southern High Plains...
The approach of the early-week trough and continued strong southern
stream flow across the southern Rockies will promote a moderately
strong surface pressure gradient on Monday across the regions.
Though mid/high-level cloud cover casts some uncertainty on RH
reductions, surface winds of 20-25 mph appear probable with at least
a few hours of critically low RH for some areas. Surface winds will
also be enhanced across parts of eastern Wyoming into Nebraska, but
RH reductions are more uncertain on top of currently low fuel
receptiveness.
For Tuesday, surface winds ahead of the cold front moving southward
will be stronger than Monday. Winds of 20-30 mph can be expected
with locally greater speeds possible. Due to increasing cloud cover,
temperatures are likely to be cooler, limiting RH reductions.
However, given the wind magnitudes, 40% probabilities will be
maintained. The cold front will eventually pass and RH will increase
rapidly. Guidance is in agreement that this will not occur until
early evening.
As the cold front passes and the surface high shifts to the east by
Thursday, a few days of dry, southerly return flow will be possible
across the southern High Plains into parts of the central Plains.
The overall synoptic pattern should have some degree of
predictability and precipitation in these areas should be
minimal/light. However, potential for critical fire weather is
uncertain given the lack of stronger large-scale features. These
areas will continue to be monitored in the coming days.
..Wendt.. 02/24/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
1 year 5 months ago
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0120 PM CST Sat Feb 24 2024
Valid 242000Z - 251200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms remain possible across parts of the Carolinas this
afternoon.
...20Z Update...
No changes have been made to the prior outlook.
..Gleason.. 02/24/2024
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1017 AM CST Sat Feb 24 2024/
...Carolinas...
A deep upper trough is rotating across the eastern states today,
with an associated area of large scale lift and precipitation
crossing the Appalachians. Mid-level temperatures are unusually
cold across the Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas today, with 500mb
temperatures of -28 to -30C. Considerable daytime heating over
NC/SC will steepen low-level lapse rates and result in marginal CAPE
around peak-heating - despite very meager low level moisture. Most
12z model guidance and machine-learning tools suggest potential for
isolated thunderstorms, mainly in the 21-02z period. No severe
storms are anticipated.
Read more
1 year 5 months ago
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0120 PM CST Sat Feb 24 2024
Valid 242000Z - 251200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms remain possible across parts of the Carolinas this
afternoon.
...20Z Update...
No changes have been made to the prior outlook.
..Gleason.. 02/24/2024
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1017 AM CST Sat Feb 24 2024/
...Carolinas...
A deep upper trough is rotating across the eastern states today,
with an associated area of large scale lift and precipitation
crossing the Appalachians. Mid-level temperatures are unusually
cold across the Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas today, with 500mb
temperatures of -28 to -30C. Considerable daytime heating over
NC/SC will steepen low-level lapse rates and result in marginal CAPE
around peak-heating - despite very meager low level moisture. Most
12z model guidance and machine-learning tools suggest potential for
isolated thunderstorms, mainly in the 21-02z period. No severe
storms are anticipated.
Read more
1 year 5 months ago
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0120 PM CST Sat Feb 24 2024
Valid 242000Z - 251200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms remain possible across parts of the Carolinas this
afternoon.
...20Z Update...
No changes have been made to the prior outlook.
..Gleason.. 02/24/2024
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1017 AM CST Sat Feb 24 2024/
...Carolinas...
A deep upper trough is rotating across the eastern states today,
with an associated area of large scale lift and precipitation
crossing the Appalachians. Mid-level temperatures are unusually
cold across the Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas today, with 500mb
temperatures of -28 to -30C. Considerable daytime heating over
NC/SC will steepen low-level lapse rates and result in marginal CAPE
around peak-heating - despite very meager low level moisture. Most
12z model guidance and machine-learning tools suggest potential for
isolated thunderstorms, mainly in the 21-02z period. No severe
storms are anticipated.
Read more
1 year 5 months ago
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0120 PM CST Sat Feb 24 2024
Valid 242000Z - 251200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms remain possible across parts of the Carolinas this
afternoon.
...20Z Update...
No changes have been made to the prior outlook.
..Gleason.. 02/24/2024
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1017 AM CST Sat Feb 24 2024/
...Carolinas...
A deep upper trough is rotating across the eastern states today,
with an associated area of large scale lift and precipitation
crossing the Appalachians. Mid-level temperatures are unusually
cold across the Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas today, with 500mb
temperatures of -28 to -30C. Considerable daytime heating over
NC/SC will steepen low-level lapse rates and result in marginal CAPE
around peak-heating - despite very meager low level moisture. Most
12z model guidance and machine-learning tools suggest potential for
isolated thunderstorms, mainly in the 21-02z period. No severe
storms are anticipated.
Read more
1 year 5 months ago
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0120 PM CST Sat Feb 24 2024
Valid 242000Z - 251200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms remain possible across parts of the Carolinas this
afternoon.
...20Z Update...
No changes have been made to the prior outlook.
..Gleason.. 02/24/2024
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1017 AM CST Sat Feb 24 2024/
...Carolinas...
A deep upper trough is rotating across the eastern states today,
with an associated area of large scale lift and precipitation
crossing the Appalachians. Mid-level temperatures are unusually
cold across the Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas today, with 500mb
temperatures of -28 to -30C. Considerable daytime heating over
NC/SC will steepen low-level lapse rates and result in marginal CAPE
around peak-heating - despite very meager low level moisture. Most
12z model guidance and machine-learning tools suggest potential for
isolated thunderstorms, mainly in the 21-02z period. No severe
storms are anticipated.
Read more
1 year 5 months ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1228 PM CST Sat Feb 24 2024
Valid 251200Z - 261200Z
The forecast remains unchanged. Locally elevated conditions appear
probable farther north into the Front Range and southeast Wyoming. A
strong cross-Divide pressure gradient will drive strong surface
winds in the immediate vicinity of the terrain. Current fuel
guidance continues to suggest limited fuel availability with
northern extent, but quick drying of fine fuels in these scenarios
could allow for fire spread should any ignitions occur.
..Wendt.. 02/24/2024
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CST Sat Feb 24 2024/
...Synopsis...
Broad northwesterly flow aloft will continue to strengthen over much
of the western and central US through D2/Sunday. At the surface, a
lee trough/low will intensify over parts of TX and OK helping to
increase surface winds farther west. Dry and breezy conditions
should promote elevated to near-critical fire-weather concerns over
the southern High Plains and Southwest D2/Sunday.
...Southwest and southern High Plains...
Stronger northwest flow aloft will gradually increase over parts of
the Southwest and southern High Plains through D2/Sunday. Downslope
flow is expected behind a weak lee low over parts of central and
north TX. Aided by the stronger flow aloft, gusty surface winds of
20-25 mph are possible across parts of eastern NM and west TX.
Afternoon RH values below 20% will also be likely along with warm
temperatures. With little rain over this area in the past several
weeks, emerging dryness within area fuels is expected to support a
risk for elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions
through the afternoon hours. Gusty winds and poor humidity
recoveries may continue overnight and into early D3/Monday.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
1 year 5 months ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1228 PM CST Sat Feb 24 2024
Valid 251200Z - 261200Z
The forecast remains unchanged. Locally elevated conditions appear
probable farther north into the Front Range and southeast Wyoming. A
strong cross-Divide pressure gradient will drive strong surface
winds in the immediate vicinity of the terrain. Current fuel
guidance continues to suggest limited fuel availability with
northern extent, but quick drying of fine fuels in these scenarios
could allow for fire spread should any ignitions occur.
..Wendt.. 02/24/2024
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CST Sat Feb 24 2024/
...Synopsis...
Broad northwesterly flow aloft will continue to strengthen over much
of the western and central US through D2/Sunday. At the surface, a
lee trough/low will intensify over parts of TX and OK helping to
increase surface winds farther west. Dry and breezy conditions
should promote elevated to near-critical fire-weather concerns over
the southern High Plains and Southwest D2/Sunday.
...Southwest and southern High Plains...
Stronger northwest flow aloft will gradually increase over parts of
the Southwest and southern High Plains through D2/Sunday. Downslope
flow is expected behind a weak lee low over parts of central and
north TX. Aided by the stronger flow aloft, gusty surface winds of
20-25 mph are possible across parts of eastern NM and west TX.
Afternoon RH values below 20% will also be likely along with warm
temperatures. With little rain over this area in the past several
weeks, emerging dryness within area fuels is expected to support a
risk for elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions
through the afternoon hours. Gusty winds and poor humidity
recoveries may continue overnight and into early D3/Monday.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
1 year 5 months ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1228 PM CST Sat Feb 24 2024
Valid 251200Z - 261200Z
The forecast remains unchanged. Locally elevated conditions appear
probable farther north into the Front Range and southeast Wyoming. A
strong cross-Divide pressure gradient will drive strong surface
winds in the immediate vicinity of the terrain. Current fuel
guidance continues to suggest limited fuel availability with
northern extent, but quick drying of fine fuels in these scenarios
could allow for fire spread should any ignitions occur.
..Wendt.. 02/24/2024
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CST Sat Feb 24 2024/
...Synopsis...
Broad northwesterly flow aloft will continue to strengthen over much
of the western and central US through D2/Sunday. At the surface, a
lee trough/low will intensify over parts of TX and OK helping to
increase surface winds farther west. Dry and breezy conditions
should promote elevated to near-critical fire-weather concerns over
the southern High Plains and Southwest D2/Sunday.
...Southwest and southern High Plains...
Stronger northwest flow aloft will gradually increase over parts of
the Southwest and southern High Plains through D2/Sunday. Downslope
flow is expected behind a weak lee low over parts of central and
north TX. Aided by the stronger flow aloft, gusty surface winds of
20-25 mph are possible across parts of eastern NM and west TX.
Afternoon RH values below 20% will also be likely along with warm
temperatures. With little rain over this area in the past several
weeks, emerging dryness within area fuels is expected to support a
risk for elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions
through the afternoon hours. Gusty winds and poor humidity
recoveries may continue overnight and into early D3/Monday.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
1 year 5 months ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1228 PM CST Sat Feb 24 2024
Valid 251200Z - 261200Z
The forecast remains unchanged. Locally elevated conditions appear
probable farther north into the Front Range and southeast Wyoming. A
strong cross-Divide pressure gradient will drive strong surface
winds in the immediate vicinity of the terrain. Current fuel
guidance continues to suggest limited fuel availability with
northern extent, but quick drying of fine fuels in these scenarios
could allow for fire spread should any ignitions occur.
..Wendt.. 02/24/2024
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CST Sat Feb 24 2024/
...Synopsis...
Broad northwesterly flow aloft will continue to strengthen over much
of the western and central US through D2/Sunday. At the surface, a
lee trough/low will intensify over parts of TX and OK helping to
increase surface winds farther west. Dry and breezy conditions
should promote elevated to near-critical fire-weather concerns over
the southern High Plains and Southwest D2/Sunday.
...Southwest and southern High Plains...
Stronger northwest flow aloft will gradually increase over parts of
the Southwest and southern High Plains through D2/Sunday. Downslope
flow is expected behind a weak lee low over parts of central and
north TX. Aided by the stronger flow aloft, gusty surface winds of
20-25 mph are possible across parts of eastern NM and west TX.
Afternoon RH values below 20% will also be likely along with warm
temperatures. With little rain over this area in the past several
weeks, emerging dryness within area fuels is expected to support a
risk for elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions
through the afternoon hours. Gusty winds and poor humidity
recoveries may continue overnight and into early D3/Monday.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
1 year 5 months ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1228 PM CST Sat Feb 24 2024
Valid 251200Z - 261200Z
The forecast remains unchanged. Locally elevated conditions appear
probable farther north into the Front Range and southeast Wyoming. A
strong cross-Divide pressure gradient will drive strong surface
winds in the immediate vicinity of the terrain. Current fuel
guidance continues to suggest limited fuel availability with
northern extent, but quick drying of fine fuels in these scenarios
could allow for fire spread should any ignitions occur.
..Wendt.. 02/24/2024
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CST Sat Feb 24 2024/
...Synopsis...
Broad northwesterly flow aloft will continue to strengthen over much
of the western and central US through D2/Sunday. At the surface, a
lee trough/low will intensify over parts of TX and OK helping to
increase surface winds farther west. Dry and breezy conditions
should promote elevated to near-critical fire-weather concerns over
the southern High Plains and Southwest D2/Sunday.
...Southwest and southern High Plains...
Stronger northwest flow aloft will gradually increase over parts of
the Southwest and southern High Plains through D2/Sunday. Downslope
flow is expected behind a weak lee low over parts of central and
north TX. Aided by the stronger flow aloft, gusty surface winds of
20-25 mph are possible across parts of eastern NM and west TX.
Afternoon RH values below 20% will also be likely along with warm
temperatures. With little rain over this area in the past several
weeks, emerging dryness within area fuels is expected to support a
risk for elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions
through the afternoon hours. Gusty winds and poor humidity
recoveries may continue overnight and into early D3/Monday.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
1 year 5 months ago
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1122 AM CST Sat Feb 24 2024
Valid 251200Z - 261200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms may occur Sunday night across parts of
coastal/northwest Washington.
...Synopsis and Discussion...
Thunderstorm potential is expected to remain quite low Sunday across
a large majority of the CONUS, with one or two possible exceptions.
An upper trough, with associated mid/upper-level jet, is forecast to
gradually amplify over British Columbia and the Pacific Northwest
through the period. Mid-level temperatures should gradually cool
while lapse rates aloft steepen as this amplification occurs.
Low-topped convection may eventually develop offshore Sunday night
and spread across parts of coastal/northwest WA. Latest NAM/RAP
forecast soundings suggest some chance for updrafts to extend deep
enough to support charge separation and occasional lightning
flashes.
A lightning flash or two also cannot be ruled out across parts of
northern CA through the day as weak MUCAPE develops with diurnal
heating. But with weak forcing aloft, overall thunderstorm coverage
across this area should remain below 10%.
..Gleason.. 02/24/2024
Read more
1 year 5 months ago
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1122 AM CST Sat Feb 24 2024
Valid 251200Z - 261200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms may occur Sunday night across parts of
coastal/northwest Washington.
...Synopsis and Discussion...
Thunderstorm potential is expected to remain quite low Sunday across
a large majority of the CONUS, with one or two possible exceptions.
An upper trough, with associated mid/upper-level jet, is forecast to
gradually amplify over British Columbia and the Pacific Northwest
through the period. Mid-level temperatures should gradually cool
while lapse rates aloft steepen as this amplification occurs.
Low-topped convection may eventually develop offshore Sunday night
and spread across parts of coastal/northwest WA. Latest NAM/RAP
forecast soundings suggest some chance for updrafts to extend deep
enough to support charge separation and occasional lightning
flashes.
A lightning flash or two also cannot be ruled out across parts of
northern CA through the day as weak MUCAPE develops with diurnal
heating. But with weak forcing aloft, overall thunderstorm coverage
across this area should remain below 10%.
..Gleason.. 02/24/2024
Read more
Checked
5 years 10 months ago
Storm Prediction Center
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