Severe Storms

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0638 AM CST Sat Feb 24 2024 Valid 241300Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Carolinas this afternoon. ...Discussion... Gradual deamplification of the upper flow field over the U.S. is expected today, as a trough over the eastern U.S. advances eastward, and eventually offshore. In its wake, fast northwesterly flow will prevail across essentially the entire country. At the surface, high pressure will largely prevail, with the exception of a weak lee trough over the High Plains. With a cold front shifting eastward across the western Atlantic and southward across the Gulf of Mexico, little potential for thunder is evident across most of the country. One exception will be across portions of the Carolinas and vicinity, as a short-wave trough currently crossing the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys continues southeastward toward the Atlantic Coast. Cold air/steep lapse rates aloft associated with this system will overspread the Middle and Southern Atlantic Coastal areas, and help contribute to weak destabilization across the Carolinas this afternoon. The weak instability, combined with QG ascent, may aid in the development of low-topped showers and a few thunderstorms that may linger into the evening before weakening/moving offshore. Elsewhere, thunderstorms are not expected. ..Goss/Broyles.. 02/24/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0638 AM CST Sat Feb 24 2024 Valid 241300Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Carolinas this afternoon. ...Discussion... Gradual deamplification of the upper flow field over the U.S. is expected today, as a trough over the eastern U.S. advances eastward, and eventually offshore. In its wake, fast northwesterly flow will prevail across essentially the entire country. At the surface, high pressure will largely prevail, with the exception of a weak lee trough over the High Plains. With a cold front shifting eastward across the western Atlantic and southward across the Gulf of Mexico, little potential for thunder is evident across most of the country. One exception will be across portions of the Carolinas and vicinity, as a short-wave trough currently crossing the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys continues southeastward toward the Atlantic Coast. Cold air/steep lapse rates aloft associated with this system will overspread the Middle and Southern Atlantic Coastal areas, and help contribute to weak destabilization across the Carolinas this afternoon. The weak instability, combined with QG ascent, may aid in the development of low-topped showers and a few thunderstorms that may linger into the evening before weakening/moving offshore. Elsewhere, thunderstorms are not expected. ..Goss/Broyles.. 02/24/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0638 AM CST Sat Feb 24 2024 Valid 241300Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Carolinas this afternoon. ...Discussion... Gradual deamplification of the upper flow field over the U.S. is expected today, as a trough over the eastern U.S. advances eastward, and eventually offshore. In its wake, fast northwesterly flow will prevail across essentially the entire country. At the surface, high pressure will largely prevail, with the exception of a weak lee trough over the High Plains. With a cold front shifting eastward across the western Atlantic and southward across the Gulf of Mexico, little potential for thunder is evident across most of the country. One exception will be across portions of the Carolinas and vicinity, as a short-wave trough currently crossing the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys continues southeastward toward the Atlantic Coast. Cold air/steep lapse rates aloft associated with this system will overspread the Middle and Southern Atlantic Coastal areas, and help contribute to weak destabilization across the Carolinas this afternoon. The weak instability, combined with QG ascent, may aid in the development of low-topped showers and a few thunderstorms that may linger into the evening before weakening/moving offshore. Elsewhere, thunderstorms are not expected. ..Goss/Broyles.. 02/24/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0638 AM CST Sat Feb 24 2024 Valid 241300Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Carolinas this afternoon. ...Discussion... Gradual deamplification of the upper flow field over the U.S. is expected today, as a trough over the eastern U.S. advances eastward, and eventually offshore. In its wake, fast northwesterly flow will prevail across essentially the entire country. At the surface, high pressure will largely prevail, with the exception of a weak lee trough over the High Plains. With a cold front shifting eastward across the western Atlantic and southward across the Gulf of Mexico, little potential for thunder is evident across most of the country. One exception will be across portions of the Carolinas and vicinity, as a short-wave trough currently crossing the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys continues southeastward toward the Atlantic Coast. Cold air/steep lapse rates aloft associated with this system will overspread the Middle and Southern Atlantic Coastal areas, and help contribute to weak destabilization across the Carolinas this afternoon. The weak instability, combined with QG ascent, may aid in the development of low-topped showers and a few thunderstorms that may linger into the evening before weakening/moving offshore. Elsewhere, thunderstorms are not expected. ..Goss/Broyles.. 02/24/2024 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CST Sat Feb 24 2024 Valid 271200Z - 031200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Tuesday/Day 4 and Wednesday/Day 5... An upper-level trough is forecast to move across the central U.S. on Tuesday, as an associated mid-level jet moves from the southern Plains into the mid Mississippi Valley. Moisture advection, ahead of a cold front, will likely take place from the Ark-La-Tex northeastward into the southern Great Lakes. In spite of abundant cloud cover, some destabilization is forecast across the moist sector ahead of the front. The ECMWF has MLCAPE generally peaking in the 500 to 1000 J/kg range along parts of the moist axis by afternoon. As thunderstorms develop ahead of the front during the late afternoon and early evening, a severe threat is expected from the Ozarks northward into the southern Great Lakes. Wind-damage, and perhaps a few tornadoes would be possible with supercells and/or the stronger bowing line segments. The front is timed to be in far western Kentucky and far northwest Tennessee by 12Z Wednesday. At that time, multiple line segments could be ongoing just ahead of the front. With the strong low-level flow in place, along with focused bands of large-scale ascent associated with the approaching upper-level trough, the more organized line segments may be capable of producing wind damage. There is considerable uncertainty, mainly due to the timing of the threat near minimum heating. However, the potential severe threat appears great enough to warrant leaving a 15 percent contour in place for Wednesday/Day 5 from parts of northern Mississippi, northern Alabama northward to near the Ohio River. The threat ahead of the front is expected to decrease some during the afternoon, as the stronger low-level flow ahead of the front weakens somewhat. ...Thursday/Day 6 to Saturday/Day 8... On Thursday and Friday, a shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward from the southern Plains into the southern Appalachians. Limited moisture return and weak instability ahead of the trough are negative factors concerning a severe threat. However, some potential for organized convection appears possible across the central Gulf Coast, along the northern edge of the moist sector. A potential for strong storms across parts of the Gulf Coast could continue into Saturday, along and near the northern edge of the moist sector. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CST Sat Feb 24 2024 Valid 271200Z - 031200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Tuesday/Day 4 and Wednesday/Day 5... An upper-level trough is forecast to move across the central U.S. on Tuesday, as an associated mid-level jet moves from the southern Plains into the mid Mississippi Valley. Moisture advection, ahead of a cold front, will likely take place from the Ark-La-Tex northeastward into the southern Great Lakes. In spite of abundant cloud cover, some destabilization is forecast across the moist sector ahead of the front. The ECMWF has MLCAPE generally peaking in the 500 to 1000 J/kg range along parts of the moist axis by afternoon. As thunderstorms develop ahead of the front during the late afternoon and early evening, a severe threat is expected from the Ozarks northward into the southern Great Lakes. Wind-damage, and perhaps a few tornadoes would be possible with supercells and/or the stronger bowing line segments. The front is timed to be in far western Kentucky and far northwest Tennessee by 12Z Wednesday. At that time, multiple line segments could be ongoing just ahead of the front. With the strong low-level flow in place, along with focused bands of large-scale ascent associated with the approaching upper-level trough, the more organized line segments may be capable of producing wind damage. There is considerable uncertainty, mainly due to the timing of the threat near minimum heating. However, the potential severe threat appears great enough to warrant leaving a 15 percent contour in place for Wednesday/Day 5 from parts of northern Mississippi, northern Alabama northward to near the Ohio River. The threat ahead of the front is expected to decrease some during the afternoon, as the stronger low-level flow ahead of the front weakens somewhat. ...Thursday/Day 6 to Saturday/Day 8... On Thursday and Friday, a shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward from the southern Plains into the southern Appalachians. Limited moisture return and weak instability ahead of the trough are negative factors concerning a severe threat. However, some potential for organized convection appears possible across the central Gulf Coast, along the northern edge of the moist sector. A potential for strong storms across parts of the Gulf Coast could continue into Saturday, along and near the northern edge of the moist sector. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CST Sat Feb 24 2024 Valid 271200Z - 031200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Tuesday/Day 4 and Wednesday/Day 5... An upper-level trough is forecast to move across the central U.S. on Tuesday, as an associated mid-level jet moves from the southern Plains into the mid Mississippi Valley. Moisture advection, ahead of a cold front, will likely take place from the Ark-La-Tex northeastward into the southern Great Lakes. In spite of abundant cloud cover, some destabilization is forecast across the moist sector ahead of the front. The ECMWF has MLCAPE generally peaking in the 500 to 1000 J/kg range along parts of the moist axis by afternoon. As thunderstorms develop ahead of the front during the late afternoon and early evening, a severe threat is expected from the Ozarks northward into the southern Great Lakes. Wind-damage, and perhaps a few tornadoes would be possible with supercells and/or the stronger bowing line segments. The front is timed to be in far western Kentucky and far northwest Tennessee by 12Z Wednesday. At that time, multiple line segments could be ongoing just ahead of the front. With the strong low-level flow in place, along with focused bands of large-scale ascent associated with the approaching upper-level trough, the more organized line segments may be capable of producing wind damage. There is considerable uncertainty, mainly due to the timing of the threat near minimum heating. However, the potential severe threat appears great enough to warrant leaving a 15 percent contour in place for Wednesday/Day 5 from parts of northern Mississippi, northern Alabama northward to near the Ohio River. The threat ahead of the front is expected to decrease some during the afternoon, as the stronger low-level flow ahead of the front weakens somewhat. ...Thursday/Day 6 to Saturday/Day 8... On Thursday and Friday, a shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward from the southern Plains into the southern Appalachians. Limited moisture return and weak instability ahead of the trough are negative factors concerning a severe threat. However, some potential for organized convection appears possible across the central Gulf Coast, along the northern edge of the moist sector. A potential for strong storms across parts of the Gulf Coast could continue into Saturday, along and near the northern edge of the moist sector. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CST Sat Feb 24 2024 Valid 271200Z - 031200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Tuesday/Day 4 and Wednesday/Day 5... An upper-level trough is forecast to move across the central U.S. on Tuesday, as an associated mid-level jet moves from the southern Plains into the mid Mississippi Valley. Moisture advection, ahead of a cold front, will likely take place from the Ark-La-Tex northeastward into the southern Great Lakes. In spite of abundant cloud cover, some destabilization is forecast across the moist sector ahead of the front. The ECMWF has MLCAPE generally peaking in the 500 to 1000 J/kg range along parts of the moist axis by afternoon. As thunderstorms develop ahead of the front during the late afternoon and early evening, a severe threat is expected from the Ozarks northward into the southern Great Lakes. Wind-damage, and perhaps a few tornadoes would be possible with supercells and/or the stronger bowing line segments. The front is timed to be in far western Kentucky and far northwest Tennessee by 12Z Wednesday. At that time, multiple line segments could be ongoing just ahead of the front. With the strong low-level flow in place, along with focused bands of large-scale ascent associated with the approaching upper-level trough, the more organized line segments may be capable of producing wind damage. There is considerable uncertainty, mainly due to the timing of the threat near minimum heating. However, the potential severe threat appears great enough to warrant leaving a 15 percent contour in place for Wednesday/Day 5 from parts of northern Mississippi, northern Alabama northward to near the Ohio River. The threat ahead of the front is expected to decrease some during the afternoon, as the stronger low-level flow ahead of the front weakens somewhat. ...Thursday/Day 6 to Saturday/Day 8... On Thursday and Friday, a shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward from the southern Plains into the southern Appalachians. Limited moisture return and weak instability ahead of the trough are negative factors concerning a severe threat. However, some potential for organized convection appears possible across the central Gulf Coast, along the northern edge of the moist sector. A potential for strong storms across parts of the Gulf Coast could continue into Saturday, along and near the northern edge of the moist sector. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CST Sat Feb 24 2024 Valid 271200Z - 031200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Tuesday/Day 4 and Wednesday/Day 5... An upper-level trough is forecast to move across the central U.S. on Tuesday, as an associated mid-level jet moves from the southern Plains into the mid Mississippi Valley. Moisture advection, ahead of a cold front, will likely take place from the Ark-La-Tex northeastward into the southern Great Lakes. In spite of abundant cloud cover, some destabilization is forecast across the moist sector ahead of the front. The ECMWF has MLCAPE generally peaking in the 500 to 1000 J/kg range along parts of the moist axis by afternoon. As thunderstorms develop ahead of the front during the late afternoon and early evening, a severe threat is expected from the Ozarks northward into the southern Great Lakes. Wind-damage, and perhaps a few tornadoes would be possible with supercells and/or the stronger bowing line segments. The front is timed to be in far western Kentucky and far northwest Tennessee by 12Z Wednesday. At that time, multiple line segments could be ongoing just ahead of the front. With the strong low-level flow in place, along with focused bands of large-scale ascent associated with the approaching upper-level trough, the more organized line segments may be capable of producing wind damage. There is considerable uncertainty, mainly due to the timing of the threat near minimum heating. However, the potential severe threat appears great enough to warrant leaving a 15 percent contour in place for Wednesday/Day 5 from parts of northern Mississippi, northern Alabama northward to near the Ohio River. The threat ahead of the front is expected to decrease some during the afternoon, as the stronger low-level flow ahead of the front weakens somewhat. ...Thursday/Day 6 to Saturday/Day 8... On Thursday and Friday, a shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward from the southern Plains into the southern Appalachians. Limited moisture return and weak instability ahead of the trough are negative factors concerning a severe threat. However, some potential for organized convection appears possible across the central Gulf Coast, along the northern edge of the moist sector. A potential for strong storms across parts of the Gulf Coast could continue into Saturday, along and near the northern edge of the moist sector. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CST Sat Feb 24 2024 Valid 271200Z - 031200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Tuesday/Day 4 and Wednesday/Day 5... An upper-level trough is forecast to move across the central U.S. on Tuesday, as an associated mid-level jet moves from the southern Plains into the mid Mississippi Valley. Moisture advection, ahead of a cold front, will likely take place from the Ark-La-Tex northeastward into the southern Great Lakes. In spite of abundant cloud cover, some destabilization is forecast across the moist sector ahead of the front. The ECMWF has MLCAPE generally peaking in the 500 to 1000 J/kg range along parts of the moist axis by afternoon. As thunderstorms develop ahead of the front during the late afternoon and early evening, a severe threat is expected from the Ozarks northward into the southern Great Lakes. Wind-damage, and perhaps a few tornadoes would be possible with supercells and/or the stronger bowing line segments. The front is timed to be in far western Kentucky and far northwest Tennessee by 12Z Wednesday. At that time, multiple line segments could be ongoing just ahead of the front. With the strong low-level flow in place, along with focused bands of large-scale ascent associated with the approaching upper-level trough, the more organized line segments may be capable of producing wind damage. There is considerable uncertainty, mainly due to the timing of the threat near minimum heating. However, the potential severe threat appears great enough to warrant leaving a 15 percent contour in place for Wednesday/Day 5 from parts of northern Mississippi, northern Alabama northward to near the Ohio River. The threat ahead of the front is expected to decrease some during the afternoon, as the stronger low-level flow ahead of the front weakens somewhat. ...Thursday/Day 6 to Saturday/Day 8... On Thursday and Friday, a shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward from the southern Plains into the southern Appalachians. Limited moisture return and weak instability ahead of the trough are negative factors concerning a severe threat. However, some potential for organized convection appears possible across the central Gulf Coast, along the northern edge of the moist sector. A potential for strong storms across parts of the Gulf Coast could continue into Saturday, along and near the northern edge of the moist sector. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CST Sat Feb 24 2024 Valid 271200Z - 031200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Tuesday/Day 4 and Wednesday/Day 5... An upper-level trough is forecast to move across the central U.S. on Tuesday, as an associated mid-level jet moves from the southern Plains into the mid Mississippi Valley. Moisture advection, ahead of a cold front, will likely take place from the Ark-La-Tex northeastward into the southern Great Lakes. In spite of abundant cloud cover, some destabilization is forecast across the moist sector ahead of the front. The ECMWF has MLCAPE generally peaking in the 500 to 1000 J/kg range along parts of the moist axis by afternoon. As thunderstorms develop ahead of the front during the late afternoon and early evening, a severe threat is expected from the Ozarks northward into the southern Great Lakes. Wind-damage, and perhaps a few tornadoes would be possible with supercells and/or the stronger bowing line segments. The front is timed to be in far western Kentucky and far northwest Tennessee by 12Z Wednesday. At that time, multiple line segments could be ongoing just ahead of the front. With the strong low-level flow in place, along with focused bands of large-scale ascent associated with the approaching upper-level trough, the more organized line segments may be capable of producing wind damage. There is considerable uncertainty, mainly due to the timing of the threat near minimum heating. However, the potential severe threat appears great enough to warrant leaving a 15 percent contour in place for Wednesday/Day 5 from parts of northern Mississippi, northern Alabama northward to near the Ohio River. The threat ahead of the front is expected to decrease some during the afternoon, as the stronger low-level flow ahead of the front weakens somewhat. ...Thursday/Day 6 to Saturday/Day 8... On Thursday and Friday, a shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward from the southern Plains into the southern Appalachians. Limited moisture return and weak instability ahead of the trough are negative factors concerning a severe threat. However, some potential for organized convection appears possible across the central Gulf Coast, along the northern edge of the moist sector. A potential for strong storms across parts of the Gulf Coast could continue into Saturday, along and near the northern edge of the moist sector. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CST Sat Feb 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No severe threat is expected across the continental U.S. on Monday and Monday night. ...DISCUSSION... Westerly mid-level flow will be in place across much of the continental U.S. on Monday, as a shortwave trough becomes more amplified across the Pacific Northwest. Isolated thunderstorms, associated with the trough, will be possible across the western part of Washington and Oregon. Isolated storms will also be possible in parts of the Intermountain West and central Rockies as the trough approaches Monday evening. Further east, moisture advection will take place from the Ozarks into the mid Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. Weak destabilization may occur along and near the moist axis, where an isolated thunderstorm potential could develop during the evening or in the overnight period. No severe threat is expected across the continental U.S. Monday and Monday night. ..Broyles.. 02/24/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CST Sat Feb 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No severe threat is expected across the continental U.S. on Monday and Monday night. ...DISCUSSION... Westerly mid-level flow will be in place across much of the continental U.S. on Monday, as a shortwave trough becomes more amplified across the Pacific Northwest. Isolated thunderstorms, associated with the trough, will be possible across the western part of Washington and Oregon. Isolated storms will also be possible in parts of the Intermountain West and central Rockies as the trough approaches Monday evening. Further east, moisture advection will take place from the Ozarks into the mid Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. Weak destabilization may occur along and near the moist axis, where an isolated thunderstorm potential could develop during the evening or in the overnight period. No severe threat is expected across the continental U.S. Monday and Monday night. ..Broyles.. 02/24/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CST Sat Feb 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No severe threat is expected across the continental U.S. on Monday and Monday night. ...DISCUSSION... Westerly mid-level flow will be in place across much of the continental U.S. on Monday, as a shortwave trough becomes more amplified across the Pacific Northwest. Isolated thunderstorms, associated with the trough, will be possible across the western part of Washington and Oregon. Isolated storms will also be possible in parts of the Intermountain West and central Rockies as the trough approaches Monday evening. Further east, moisture advection will take place from the Ozarks into the mid Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. Weak destabilization may occur along and near the moist axis, where an isolated thunderstorm potential could develop during the evening or in the overnight period. No severe threat is expected across the continental U.S. Monday and Monday night. ..Broyles.. 02/24/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CST Sat Feb 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No severe threat is expected across the continental U.S. on Monday and Monday night. ...DISCUSSION... Westerly mid-level flow will be in place across much of the continental U.S. on Monday, as a shortwave trough becomes more amplified across the Pacific Northwest. Isolated thunderstorms, associated with the trough, will be possible across the western part of Washington and Oregon. Isolated storms will also be possible in parts of the Intermountain West and central Rockies as the trough approaches Monday evening. Further east, moisture advection will take place from the Ozarks into the mid Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. Weak destabilization may occur along and near the moist axis, where an isolated thunderstorm potential could develop during the evening or in the overnight period. No severe threat is expected across the continental U.S. Monday and Monday night. ..Broyles.. 02/24/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CST Sat Feb 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No severe threat is expected across the continental U.S. on Monday and Monday night. ...DISCUSSION... Westerly mid-level flow will be in place across much of the continental U.S. on Monday, as a shortwave trough becomes more amplified across the Pacific Northwest. Isolated thunderstorms, associated with the trough, will be possible across the western part of Washington and Oregon. Isolated storms will also be possible in parts of the Intermountain West and central Rockies as the trough approaches Monday evening. Further east, moisture advection will take place from the Ozarks into the mid Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. Weak destabilization may occur along and near the moist axis, where an isolated thunderstorm potential could develop during the evening or in the overnight period. No severe threat is expected across the continental U.S. Monday and Monday night. ..Broyles.. 02/24/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CST Sat Feb 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No severe threat is expected across the continental U.S. on Monday and Monday night. ...DISCUSSION... Westerly mid-level flow will be in place across much of the continental U.S. on Monday, as a shortwave trough becomes more amplified across the Pacific Northwest. Isolated thunderstorms, associated with the trough, will be possible across the western part of Washington and Oregon. Isolated storms will also be possible in parts of the Intermountain West and central Rockies as the trough approaches Monday evening. Further east, moisture advection will take place from the Ozarks into the mid Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. Weak destabilization may occur along and near the moist axis, where an isolated thunderstorm potential could develop during the evening or in the overnight period. No severe threat is expected across the continental U.S. Monday and Monday night. ..Broyles.. 02/24/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CST Sat Feb 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No severe threat is expected across the continental U.S. on Monday and Monday night. ...DISCUSSION... Westerly mid-level flow will be in place across much of the continental U.S. on Monday, as a shortwave trough becomes more amplified across the Pacific Northwest. Isolated thunderstorms, associated with the trough, will be possible across the western part of Washington and Oregon. Isolated storms will also be possible in parts of the Intermountain West and central Rockies as the trough approaches Monday evening. Further east, moisture advection will take place from the Ozarks into the mid Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. Weak destabilization may occur along and near the moist axis, where an isolated thunderstorm potential could develop during the evening or in the overnight period. No severe threat is expected across the continental U.S. Monday and Monday night. ..Broyles.. 02/24/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CST Sat Feb 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...Synopsis... Broad northwesterly flow aloft will continue to strengthen over much of the western and central US through D2/Sunday. At the surface, a lee trough/low will intensify over parts of TX and OK helping to increase surface winds farther west. Dry and breezy conditions should promote elevated to near-critical fire-weather concerns over the southern High Plains and Southwest D2/Sunday. ...Southwest and southern High Plains... Stronger northwest flow aloft will gradually increase over parts of the Southwest and southern High Plains through D2/Sunday. Downslope flow is expected behind a weak lee low over parts of central and north TX. Aided by the stronger flow aloft, gusty surface winds of 20-25 mph are possible across parts of eastern NM and west TX. Afternoon RH values below 20% will also be likely along with warm temperatures. With little rain over this area in the past several weeks, emerging dryness within area fuels is expected to support a risk for elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions through the afternoon hours. Gusty winds and poor humidity recoveries may continue overnight and into early D3/Monday. ..Lyons.. 02/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CST Sat Feb 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...Synopsis... Broad northwesterly flow aloft will continue to strengthen over much of the western and central US through D2/Sunday. At the surface, a lee trough/low will intensify over parts of TX and OK helping to increase surface winds farther west. Dry and breezy conditions should promote elevated to near-critical fire-weather concerns over the southern High Plains and Southwest D2/Sunday. ...Southwest and southern High Plains... Stronger northwest flow aloft will gradually increase over parts of the Southwest and southern High Plains through D2/Sunday. Downslope flow is expected behind a weak lee low over parts of central and north TX. Aided by the stronger flow aloft, gusty surface winds of 20-25 mph are possible across parts of eastern NM and west TX. Afternoon RH values below 20% will also be likely along with warm temperatures. With little rain over this area in the past several weeks, emerging dryness within area fuels is expected to support a risk for elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions through the afternoon hours. Gusty winds and poor humidity recoveries may continue overnight and into early D3/Monday. ..Lyons.. 02/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more