Severe Storms

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 AM CST Mon Feb 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST-CENTRAL MISSOURI INTO ILLINOIS...INDIANA...NORTHWEST OHIO AND SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms, associated with large hail (some near 2 inch diameter), damaging gusts, and a few tornadoes will be possible from late Tuesday afternoon, into the evening and overnight from parts of the mid Mississippi Valley, and southwestern Great Lakes. ...Mid-MS Valley/Southwest Great Lakes Vicinity... An upper trough over the northern Rockies/Intermountain West will shift east on Tuesday, becoming oriented from the Upper MS Valley and Mid-MO Valley by Wednesday morning. Fast deep-layer southwesterly flow ahead of this feature will overspread the Ozark Plateau into the Great Lakes. At the surface, a low will deepen as it shifts east from MN toward southern Ontario. A cold front attendant to the low will quickly shift east/southeast across the Plains and the Mid/Upper MS Valley during the afternoon and into the overnight period. Initial thunderstorm activity may develop in warm advection regime near the quasi-warm front/moisture gradient from northern IL into IN/NW OH/southern MI around 21-00z. Additional activity will then develop along the cold front as it develops east and the main upper wave ejects into the region around 00-03z. Warm advection and southerly low-level flow ahead of the front will allow for modest airmass modification into the Midwest. However, forecast dewpoints are only expected to reach into the 50s to near 60 F. Nevertheless, a plume of steep midlevel lapse rates will overspread the IL/IN/MI/OH vicinity from afternoon into the evening. This will support modest destabilization with MLCAPE generally forecast to be less than 1000 J/kg, though a narrow corridor of up to 1500 J/kg MLCAPE may be possible for a brief period around 00z. Forecast soundings across the region indicate most of available instability will be located above the 850-700 mb layer. Initial thunderstorm activity may be slightly elevated as some forecast soundings indicate a warm nose between 850-700 mb during late afternoon/early evening. Nevertheless, effective shear greater than 50 kt, and enlarged low-level hodographs becoming elongated above 3 km indicate initial supercells will be possible near the quasi-warm front/moisture gradient from northeast IL into northern IN and vicinity. With most instability focused above the 850-700 mb layer, and in conjunction with poor boundary-layer dewpoints, the tornado risk may be somewhat lower than typically expected given shear profiles in the 0-2 km layer. Nevertheless a couple tornadoes are possible, especially if greater moisture than forecast can make it this far north. Large hail, with a few instances near 2 inch diameter, will be possible with any semi-discrete supercells, along with damaging gusts. Once linear forcing along the front increases in the 00-03z period, a line of storms is forecast to develop east from the Mid-MS Valley toward the Lower OH Valley during the nighttime hours. Damaging gusts will be the main concern with this activity. ..Leitman.. 02/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 AM CST Mon Feb 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST-CENTRAL MISSOURI INTO ILLINOIS...INDIANA...NORTHWEST OHIO AND SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms, associated with large hail (some near 2 inch diameter), damaging gusts, and a few tornadoes will be possible from late Tuesday afternoon, into the evening and overnight from parts of the mid Mississippi Valley, and southwestern Great Lakes. ...Mid-MS Valley/Southwest Great Lakes Vicinity... An upper trough over the northern Rockies/Intermountain West will shift east on Tuesday, becoming oriented from the Upper MS Valley and Mid-MO Valley by Wednesday morning. Fast deep-layer southwesterly flow ahead of this feature will overspread the Ozark Plateau into the Great Lakes. At the surface, a low will deepen as it shifts east from MN toward southern Ontario. A cold front attendant to the low will quickly shift east/southeast across the Plains and the Mid/Upper MS Valley during the afternoon and into the overnight period. Initial thunderstorm activity may develop in warm advection regime near the quasi-warm front/moisture gradient from northern IL into IN/NW OH/southern MI around 21-00z. Additional activity will then develop along the cold front as it develops east and the main upper wave ejects into the region around 00-03z. Warm advection and southerly low-level flow ahead of the front will allow for modest airmass modification into the Midwest. However, forecast dewpoints are only expected to reach into the 50s to near 60 F. Nevertheless, a plume of steep midlevel lapse rates will overspread the IL/IN/MI/OH vicinity from afternoon into the evening. This will support modest destabilization with MLCAPE generally forecast to be less than 1000 J/kg, though a narrow corridor of up to 1500 J/kg MLCAPE may be possible for a brief period around 00z. Forecast soundings across the region indicate most of available instability will be located above the 850-700 mb layer. Initial thunderstorm activity may be slightly elevated as some forecast soundings indicate a warm nose between 850-700 mb during late afternoon/early evening. Nevertheless, effective shear greater than 50 kt, and enlarged low-level hodographs becoming elongated above 3 km indicate initial supercells will be possible near the quasi-warm front/moisture gradient from northeast IL into northern IN and vicinity. With most instability focused above the 850-700 mb layer, and in conjunction with poor boundary-layer dewpoints, the tornado risk may be somewhat lower than typically expected given shear profiles in the 0-2 km layer. Nevertheless a couple tornadoes are possible, especially if greater moisture than forecast can make it this far north. Large hail, with a few instances near 2 inch diameter, will be possible with any semi-discrete supercells, along with damaging gusts. Once linear forcing along the front increases in the 00-03z period, a line of storms is forecast to develop east from the Mid-MS Valley toward the Lower OH Valley during the nighttime hours. Damaging gusts will be the main concern with this activity. ..Leitman.. 02/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 AM CST Mon Feb 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST-CENTRAL MISSOURI INTO ILLINOIS...INDIANA...NORTHWEST OHIO AND SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms, associated with large hail (some near 2 inch diameter), damaging gusts, and a few tornadoes will be possible from late Tuesday afternoon, into the evening and overnight from parts of the mid Mississippi Valley, and southwestern Great Lakes. ...Mid-MS Valley/Southwest Great Lakes Vicinity... An upper trough over the northern Rockies/Intermountain West will shift east on Tuesday, becoming oriented from the Upper MS Valley and Mid-MO Valley by Wednesday morning. Fast deep-layer southwesterly flow ahead of this feature will overspread the Ozark Plateau into the Great Lakes. At the surface, a low will deepen as it shifts east from MN toward southern Ontario. A cold front attendant to the low will quickly shift east/southeast across the Plains and the Mid/Upper MS Valley during the afternoon and into the overnight period. Initial thunderstorm activity may develop in warm advection regime near the quasi-warm front/moisture gradient from northern IL into IN/NW OH/southern MI around 21-00z. Additional activity will then develop along the cold front as it develops east and the main upper wave ejects into the region around 00-03z. Warm advection and southerly low-level flow ahead of the front will allow for modest airmass modification into the Midwest. However, forecast dewpoints are only expected to reach into the 50s to near 60 F. Nevertheless, a plume of steep midlevel lapse rates will overspread the IL/IN/MI/OH vicinity from afternoon into the evening. This will support modest destabilization with MLCAPE generally forecast to be less than 1000 J/kg, though a narrow corridor of up to 1500 J/kg MLCAPE may be possible for a brief period around 00z. Forecast soundings across the region indicate most of available instability will be located above the 850-700 mb layer. Initial thunderstorm activity may be slightly elevated as some forecast soundings indicate a warm nose between 850-700 mb during late afternoon/early evening. Nevertheless, effective shear greater than 50 kt, and enlarged low-level hodographs becoming elongated above 3 km indicate initial supercells will be possible near the quasi-warm front/moisture gradient from northeast IL into northern IN and vicinity. With most instability focused above the 850-700 mb layer, and in conjunction with poor boundary-layer dewpoints, the tornado risk may be somewhat lower than typically expected given shear profiles in the 0-2 km layer. Nevertheless a couple tornadoes are possible, especially if greater moisture than forecast can make it this far north. Large hail, with a few instances near 2 inch diameter, will be possible with any semi-discrete supercells, along with damaging gusts. Once linear forcing along the front increases in the 00-03z period, a line of storms is forecast to develop east from the Mid-MS Valley toward the Lower OH Valley during the nighttime hours. Damaging gusts will be the main concern with this activity. ..Leitman.. 02/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 AM CST Mon Feb 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST-CENTRAL MISSOURI INTO ILLINOIS...INDIANA...NORTHWEST OHIO AND SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms, associated with large hail (some near 2 inch diameter), damaging gusts, and a few tornadoes will be possible from late Tuesday afternoon, into the evening and overnight from parts of the mid Mississippi Valley, and southwestern Great Lakes. ...Mid-MS Valley/Southwest Great Lakes Vicinity... An upper trough over the northern Rockies/Intermountain West will shift east on Tuesday, becoming oriented from the Upper MS Valley and Mid-MO Valley by Wednesday morning. Fast deep-layer southwesterly flow ahead of this feature will overspread the Ozark Plateau into the Great Lakes. At the surface, a low will deepen as it shifts east from MN toward southern Ontario. A cold front attendant to the low will quickly shift east/southeast across the Plains and the Mid/Upper MS Valley during the afternoon and into the overnight period. Initial thunderstorm activity may develop in warm advection regime near the quasi-warm front/moisture gradient from northern IL into IN/NW OH/southern MI around 21-00z. Additional activity will then develop along the cold front as it develops east and the main upper wave ejects into the region around 00-03z. Warm advection and southerly low-level flow ahead of the front will allow for modest airmass modification into the Midwest. However, forecast dewpoints are only expected to reach into the 50s to near 60 F. Nevertheless, a plume of steep midlevel lapse rates will overspread the IL/IN/MI/OH vicinity from afternoon into the evening. This will support modest destabilization with MLCAPE generally forecast to be less than 1000 J/kg, though a narrow corridor of up to 1500 J/kg MLCAPE may be possible for a brief period around 00z. Forecast soundings across the region indicate most of available instability will be located above the 850-700 mb layer. Initial thunderstorm activity may be slightly elevated as some forecast soundings indicate a warm nose between 850-700 mb during late afternoon/early evening. Nevertheless, effective shear greater than 50 kt, and enlarged low-level hodographs becoming elongated above 3 km indicate initial supercells will be possible near the quasi-warm front/moisture gradient from northeast IL into northern IN and vicinity. With most instability focused above the 850-700 mb layer, and in conjunction with poor boundary-layer dewpoints, the tornado risk may be somewhat lower than typically expected given shear profiles in the 0-2 km layer. Nevertheless a couple tornadoes are possible, especially if greater moisture than forecast can make it this far north. Large hail, with a few instances near 2 inch diameter, will be possible with any semi-discrete supercells, along with damaging gusts. Once linear forcing along the front increases in the 00-03z period, a line of storms is forecast to develop east from the Mid-MS Valley toward the Lower OH Valley during the nighttime hours. Damaging gusts will be the main concern with this activity. ..Leitman.. 02/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 AM CST Mon Feb 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST-CENTRAL MISSOURI INTO ILLINOIS...INDIANA...NORTHWEST OHIO AND SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms, associated with large hail (some near 2 inch diameter), damaging gusts, and a few tornadoes will be possible from late Tuesday afternoon, into the evening and overnight from parts of the mid Mississippi Valley, and southwestern Great Lakes. ...Mid-MS Valley/Southwest Great Lakes Vicinity... An upper trough over the northern Rockies/Intermountain West will shift east on Tuesday, becoming oriented from the Upper MS Valley and Mid-MO Valley by Wednesday morning. Fast deep-layer southwesterly flow ahead of this feature will overspread the Ozark Plateau into the Great Lakes. At the surface, a low will deepen as it shifts east from MN toward southern Ontario. A cold front attendant to the low will quickly shift east/southeast across the Plains and the Mid/Upper MS Valley during the afternoon and into the overnight period. Initial thunderstorm activity may develop in warm advection regime near the quasi-warm front/moisture gradient from northern IL into IN/NW OH/southern MI around 21-00z. Additional activity will then develop along the cold front as it develops east and the main upper wave ejects into the region around 00-03z. Warm advection and southerly low-level flow ahead of the front will allow for modest airmass modification into the Midwest. However, forecast dewpoints are only expected to reach into the 50s to near 60 F. Nevertheless, a plume of steep midlevel lapse rates will overspread the IL/IN/MI/OH vicinity from afternoon into the evening. This will support modest destabilization with MLCAPE generally forecast to be less than 1000 J/kg, though a narrow corridor of up to 1500 J/kg MLCAPE may be possible for a brief period around 00z. Forecast soundings across the region indicate most of available instability will be located above the 850-700 mb layer. Initial thunderstorm activity may be slightly elevated as some forecast soundings indicate a warm nose between 850-700 mb during late afternoon/early evening. Nevertheless, effective shear greater than 50 kt, and enlarged low-level hodographs becoming elongated above 3 km indicate initial supercells will be possible near the quasi-warm front/moisture gradient from northeast IL into northern IN and vicinity. With most instability focused above the 850-700 mb layer, and in conjunction with poor boundary-layer dewpoints, the tornado risk may be somewhat lower than typically expected given shear profiles in the 0-2 km layer. Nevertheless a couple tornadoes are possible, especially if greater moisture than forecast can make it this far north. Large hail, with a few instances near 2 inch diameter, will be possible with any semi-discrete supercells, along with damaging gusts. Once linear forcing along the front increases in the 00-03z period, a line of storms is forecast to develop east from the Mid-MS Valley toward the Lower OH Valley during the nighttime hours. Damaging gusts will be the main concern with this activity. ..Leitman.. 02/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 AM CST Mon Feb 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST-CENTRAL MISSOURI INTO ILLINOIS...INDIANA...NORTHWEST OHIO AND SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms, associated with large hail (some near 2 inch diameter), damaging gusts, and a few tornadoes will be possible from late Tuesday afternoon, into the evening and overnight from parts of the mid Mississippi Valley, and southwestern Great Lakes. ...Mid-MS Valley/Southwest Great Lakes Vicinity... An upper trough over the northern Rockies/Intermountain West will shift east on Tuesday, becoming oriented from the Upper MS Valley and Mid-MO Valley by Wednesday morning. Fast deep-layer southwesterly flow ahead of this feature will overspread the Ozark Plateau into the Great Lakes. At the surface, a low will deepen as it shifts east from MN toward southern Ontario. A cold front attendant to the low will quickly shift east/southeast across the Plains and the Mid/Upper MS Valley during the afternoon and into the overnight period. Initial thunderstorm activity may develop in warm advection regime near the quasi-warm front/moisture gradient from northern IL into IN/NW OH/southern MI around 21-00z. Additional activity will then develop along the cold front as it develops east and the main upper wave ejects into the region around 00-03z. Warm advection and southerly low-level flow ahead of the front will allow for modest airmass modification into the Midwest. However, forecast dewpoints are only expected to reach into the 50s to near 60 F. Nevertheless, a plume of steep midlevel lapse rates will overspread the IL/IN/MI/OH vicinity from afternoon into the evening. This will support modest destabilization with MLCAPE generally forecast to be less than 1000 J/kg, though a narrow corridor of up to 1500 J/kg MLCAPE may be possible for a brief period around 00z. Forecast soundings across the region indicate most of available instability will be located above the 850-700 mb layer. Initial thunderstorm activity may be slightly elevated as some forecast soundings indicate a warm nose between 850-700 mb during late afternoon/early evening. Nevertheless, effective shear greater than 50 kt, and enlarged low-level hodographs becoming elongated above 3 km indicate initial supercells will be possible near the quasi-warm front/moisture gradient from northeast IL into northern IN and vicinity. With most instability focused above the 850-700 mb layer, and in conjunction with poor boundary-layer dewpoints, the tornado risk may be somewhat lower than typically expected given shear profiles in the 0-2 km layer. Nevertheless a couple tornadoes are possible, especially if greater moisture than forecast can make it this far north. Large hail, with a few instances near 2 inch diameter, will be possible with any semi-discrete supercells, along with damaging gusts. Once linear forcing along the front increases in the 00-03z period, a line of storms is forecast to develop east from the Mid-MS Valley toward the Lower OH Valley during the nighttime hours. Damaging gusts will be the main concern with this activity. ..Leitman.. 02/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1138 PM CST Sun Feb 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION... ...SUMMARY... Isolated late-night hail is possible across portions of the central Great Lakes region. ...Central Great Lakes Region... Strong northern-stream trough will dig southeast into the Great Basin by the end of the period. This evolution will suppress the height fields across most of the western US, and some coupling with the southern branch should occur over the southern Rockies region by 27/12z. Several low-amplitude disturbances will eject northeast within the southern current into the mid MS Valley region during the overnight hours. One of these features is expected to encourage significant strengthening of the LLJ across IN/lower MI by midnight. Late this evening, PW values remain seasonally low across most of the CONUS, with only a small region of near-1" values observed across deep south TX. While significant moisture is not expected to surge particularly fast toward high latitudes, sustained southerly low-level flow will permit gradual moistening across the MS Valley, and 1" PW values may approach central IN by midnight. Additionally, very steep midlevel lapse rates will be noted as this moisture advances north. Forecast soundings show substantial moistening at 850mb into this region which results in MUCAPE values exceeding 1500 J/kg where dew points are able to rise to near 8 C. Scattered convection should develop in response to the approaching disturbance and increasing LLJ, most likely after midnight. Some organization appears possible given the shear, and perhaps a few weak supercells may develop. If so, some risk for hail around 1" appears possible with the strongest updrafts. ..Darrow/Lyons.. 02/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1138 PM CST Sun Feb 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION... ...SUMMARY... Isolated late-night hail is possible across portions of the central Great Lakes region. ...Central Great Lakes Region... Strong northern-stream trough will dig southeast into the Great Basin by the end of the period. This evolution will suppress the height fields across most of the western US, and some coupling with the southern branch should occur over the southern Rockies region by 27/12z. Several low-amplitude disturbances will eject northeast within the southern current into the mid MS Valley region during the overnight hours. One of these features is expected to encourage significant strengthening of the LLJ across IN/lower MI by midnight. Late this evening, PW values remain seasonally low across most of the CONUS, with only a small region of near-1" values observed across deep south TX. While significant moisture is not expected to surge particularly fast toward high latitudes, sustained southerly low-level flow will permit gradual moistening across the MS Valley, and 1" PW values may approach central IN by midnight. Additionally, very steep midlevel lapse rates will be noted as this moisture advances north. Forecast soundings show substantial moistening at 850mb into this region which results in MUCAPE values exceeding 1500 J/kg where dew points are able to rise to near 8 C. Scattered convection should develop in response to the approaching disturbance and increasing LLJ, most likely after midnight. Some organization appears possible given the shear, and perhaps a few weak supercells may develop. If so, some risk for hail around 1" appears possible with the strongest updrafts. ..Darrow/Lyons.. 02/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1138 PM CST Sun Feb 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION... ...SUMMARY... Isolated late-night hail is possible across portions of the central Great Lakes region. ...Central Great Lakes Region... Strong northern-stream trough will dig southeast into the Great Basin by the end of the period. This evolution will suppress the height fields across most of the western US, and some coupling with the southern branch should occur over the southern Rockies region by 27/12z. Several low-amplitude disturbances will eject northeast within the southern current into the mid MS Valley region during the overnight hours. One of these features is expected to encourage significant strengthening of the LLJ across IN/lower MI by midnight. Late this evening, PW values remain seasonally low across most of the CONUS, with only a small region of near-1" values observed across deep south TX. While significant moisture is not expected to surge particularly fast toward high latitudes, sustained southerly low-level flow will permit gradual moistening across the MS Valley, and 1" PW values may approach central IN by midnight. Additionally, very steep midlevel lapse rates will be noted as this moisture advances north. Forecast soundings show substantial moistening at 850mb into this region which results in MUCAPE values exceeding 1500 J/kg where dew points are able to rise to near 8 C. Scattered convection should develop in response to the approaching disturbance and increasing LLJ, most likely after midnight. Some organization appears possible given the shear, and perhaps a few weak supercells may develop. If so, some risk for hail around 1" appears possible with the strongest updrafts. ..Darrow/Lyons.. 02/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1138 PM CST Sun Feb 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION... ...SUMMARY... Isolated late-night hail is possible across portions of the central Great Lakes region. ...Central Great Lakes Region... Strong northern-stream trough will dig southeast into the Great Basin by the end of the period. This evolution will suppress the height fields across most of the western US, and some coupling with the southern branch should occur over the southern Rockies region by 27/12z. Several low-amplitude disturbances will eject northeast within the southern current into the mid MS Valley region during the overnight hours. One of these features is expected to encourage significant strengthening of the LLJ across IN/lower MI by midnight. Late this evening, PW values remain seasonally low across most of the CONUS, with only a small region of near-1" values observed across deep south TX. While significant moisture is not expected to surge particularly fast toward high latitudes, sustained southerly low-level flow will permit gradual moistening across the MS Valley, and 1" PW values may approach central IN by midnight. Additionally, very steep midlevel lapse rates will be noted as this moisture advances north. Forecast soundings show substantial moistening at 850mb into this region which results in MUCAPE values exceeding 1500 J/kg where dew points are able to rise to near 8 C. Scattered convection should develop in response to the approaching disturbance and increasing LLJ, most likely after midnight. Some organization appears possible given the shear, and perhaps a few weak supercells may develop. If so, some risk for hail around 1" appears possible with the strongest updrafts. ..Darrow/Lyons.. 02/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1138 PM CST Sun Feb 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION... ...SUMMARY... Isolated late-night hail is possible across portions of the central Great Lakes region. ...Central Great Lakes Region... Strong northern-stream trough will dig southeast into the Great Basin by the end of the period. This evolution will suppress the height fields across most of the western US, and some coupling with the southern branch should occur over the southern Rockies region by 27/12z. Several low-amplitude disturbances will eject northeast within the southern current into the mid MS Valley region during the overnight hours. One of these features is expected to encourage significant strengthening of the LLJ across IN/lower MI by midnight. Late this evening, PW values remain seasonally low across most of the CONUS, with only a small region of near-1" values observed across deep south TX. While significant moisture is not expected to surge particularly fast toward high latitudes, sustained southerly low-level flow will permit gradual moistening across the MS Valley, and 1" PW values may approach central IN by midnight. Additionally, very steep midlevel lapse rates will be noted as this moisture advances north. Forecast soundings show substantial moistening at 850mb into this region which results in MUCAPE values exceeding 1500 J/kg where dew points are able to rise to near 8 C. Scattered convection should develop in response to the approaching disturbance and increasing LLJ, most likely after midnight. Some organization appears possible given the shear, and perhaps a few weak supercells may develop. If so, some risk for hail around 1" appears possible with the strongest updrafts. ..Darrow/Lyons.. 02/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1138 PM CST Sun Feb 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION... ...SUMMARY... Isolated late-night hail is possible across portions of the central Great Lakes region. ...Central Great Lakes Region... Strong northern-stream trough will dig southeast into the Great Basin by the end of the period. This evolution will suppress the height fields across most of the western US, and some coupling with the southern branch should occur over the southern Rockies region by 27/12z. Several low-amplitude disturbances will eject northeast within the southern current into the mid MS Valley region during the overnight hours. One of these features is expected to encourage significant strengthening of the LLJ across IN/lower MI by midnight. Late this evening, PW values remain seasonally low across most of the CONUS, with only a small region of near-1" values observed across deep south TX. While significant moisture is not expected to surge particularly fast toward high latitudes, sustained southerly low-level flow will permit gradual moistening across the MS Valley, and 1" PW values may approach central IN by midnight. Additionally, very steep midlevel lapse rates will be noted as this moisture advances north. Forecast soundings show substantial moistening at 850mb into this region which results in MUCAPE values exceeding 1500 J/kg where dew points are able to rise to near 8 C. Scattered convection should develop in response to the approaching disturbance and increasing LLJ, most likely after midnight. Some organization appears possible given the shear, and perhaps a few weak supercells may develop. If so, some risk for hail around 1" appears possible with the strongest updrafts. ..Darrow/Lyons.. 02/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0636 PM CST Sun Feb 25 2024 Valid 260100Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may occur tonight across parts of coastal/northwest Washington. ...01z Update... Very cold midlevel temperatures (-30C to -38C at 500mb) will spread across northwest WA later tonight as a strong polar jet sags south into this region. NAM forecast sounding for UIL at 06z exhibits SBCAPE on the order of 100 J/kg with an EL temperature around -23C, near 600mb. Lapse rates will continue to steepen, and EL heights should increase through 12z. While boundary-layer conditions will remain cool, marine influences should contribute to instability necessary for a few flashes of lightning within the deepest convection. No changes are warranted to previous outlook. ..Darrow.. 02/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0636 PM CST Sun Feb 25 2024 Valid 260100Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may occur tonight across parts of coastal/northwest Washington. ...01z Update... Very cold midlevel temperatures (-30C to -38C at 500mb) will spread across northwest WA later tonight as a strong polar jet sags south into this region. NAM forecast sounding for UIL at 06z exhibits SBCAPE on the order of 100 J/kg with an EL temperature around -23C, near 600mb. Lapse rates will continue to steepen, and EL heights should increase through 12z. While boundary-layer conditions will remain cool, marine influences should contribute to instability necessary for a few flashes of lightning within the deepest convection. No changes are warranted to previous outlook. ..Darrow.. 02/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0636 PM CST Sun Feb 25 2024 Valid 260100Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may occur tonight across parts of coastal/northwest Washington. ...01z Update... Very cold midlevel temperatures (-30C to -38C at 500mb) will spread across northwest WA later tonight as a strong polar jet sags south into this region. NAM forecast sounding for UIL at 06z exhibits SBCAPE on the order of 100 J/kg with an EL temperature around -23C, near 600mb. Lapse rates will continue to steepen, and EL heights should increase through 12z. While boundary-layer conditions will remain cool, marine influences should contribute to instability necessary for a few flashes of lightning within the deepest convection. No changes are warranted to previous outlook. ..Darrow.. 02/26/2024 Read more

No watches are valid as of Sun Feb 25 22:20:02 UTC 2024.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Feb 25 22:20:02 UTC 2024.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0314 PM CST Sun Feb 25 2024 Valid 271200Z - 041200Z Northern and southern stream shortwave troughs are expected to phase over the central Plains into the Ozarks Tuesday/Wednesday. A surface front will continue southward into the southern Plains, stalling in the northern Gulf. Broad ridging aloft will then become the main feature across the CONUS through late week. As the weekend approaches, another strong trough is forecast to dig into the southwestern U.S. and eventually eject into the Plains by the beginning of the following week. ...Southern Plains... A strong surface pressure gradient along with coupled low-level and mid-level jets will lead to surface winds of 20-30 mph (locally 30-35 mph). With cloud cover becoming more prevalent, temperatures will likely be cooler than on previous days and RH will subsequently be slightly increased. Even so, the strong wind field and increasing fuel dryness will promote elevated to near-critical fire weather in the region on Tuesday. Winds will shift to northerly as the front passes, but this should not occur until after dark. ...Southern High Plains... Model guidance continues to depict a strong trough moving into the Southwest next weekend. Given the large-scale features of note, some degree of predictability should exist even towards the end of the forecast period. Dry and windy conditions could approach critical thresholds as soon as Saturday, but, at least currently, are expected to peak on Sunday as the mid-level jet ejects into the Texas Panhandle/South Plains. As this is a critical fire weather pattern for this region, 40% probabilities will be introduced for Sunday. As timing could change with newer guidance over the coming days, some adjustments are possible. ..Wendt.. 02/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0314 PM CST Sun Feb 25 2024 Valid 271200Z - 041200Z Northern and southern stream shortwave troughs are expected to phase over the central Plains into the Ozarks Tuesday/Wednesday. A surface front will continue southward into the southern Plains, stalling in the northern Gulf. Broad ridging aloft will then become the main feature across the CONUS through late week. As the weekend approaches, another strong trough is forecast to dig into the southwestern U.S. and eventually eject into the Plains by the beginning of the following week. ...Southern Plains... A strong surface pressure gradient along with coupled low-level and mid-level jets will lead to surface winds of 20-30 mph (locally 30-35 mph). With cloud cover becoming more prevalent, temperatures will likely be cooler than on previous days and RH will subsequently be slightly increased. Even so, the strong wind field and increasing fuel dryness will promote elevated to near-critical fire weather in the region on Tuesday. Winds will shift to northerly as the front passes, but this should not occur until after dark. ...Southern High Plains... Model guidance continues to depict a strong trough moving into the Southwest next weekend. Given the large-scale features of note, some degree of predictability should exist even towards the end of the forecast period. Dry and windy conditions could approach critical thresholds as soon as Saturday, but, at least currently, are expected to peak on Sunday as the mid-level jet ejects into the Texas Panhandle/South Plains. As this is a critical fire weather pattern for this region, 40% probabilities will be introduced for Sunday. As timing could change with newer guidance over the coming days, some adjustments are possible. ..Wendt.. 02/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0314 PM CST Sun Feb 25 2024 Valid 271200Z - 041200Z Northern and southern stream shortwave troughs are expected to phase over the central Plains into the Ozarks Tuesday/Wednesday. A surface front will continue southward into the southern Plains, stalling in the northern Gulf. Broad ridging aloft will then become the main feature across the CONUS through late week. As the weekend approaches, another strong trough is forecast to dig into the southwestern U.S. and eventually eject into the Plains by the beginning of the following week. ...Southern Plains... A strong surface pressure gradient along with coupled low-level and mid-level jets will lead to surface winds of 20-30 mph (locally 30-35 mph). With cloud cover becoming more prevalent, temperatures will likely be cooler than on previous days and RH will subsequently be slightly increased. Even so, the strong wind field and increasing fuel dryness will promote elevated to near-critical fire weather in the region on Tuesday. Winds will shift to northerly as the front passes, but this should not occur until after dark. ...Southern High Plains... Model guidance continues to depict a strong trough moving into the Southwest next weekend. Given the large-scale features of note, some degree of predictability should exist even towards the end of the forecast period. Dry and windy conditions could approach critical thresholds as soon as Saturday, but, at least currently, are expected to peak on Sunday as the mid-level jet ejects into the Texas Panhandle/South Plains. As this is a critical fire weather pattern for this region, 40% probabilities will be introduced for Sunday. As timing could change with newer guidance over the coming days, some adjustments are possible. ..Wendt.. 02/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more