Severe Storms

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 PM CST Sat Mar 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... CORRECTED FOR THUNDER LINES ...SUMMARY... A few strong thunderstorms will be possible across parts of Florida during the afternoon and early evening. Isolated hail is expected to be the primary threat, though locally gusty winds may also occur. ...Synopsis... A deep upper-level trough will persist over the western CONUS through the period, as a strong embedded shortwave moves from the central High Plains toward the upper Great Lakes region. A surface low attendant to this shortwave will move northward across the Dakotas and Minnesota, with secondary cyclogenesis expected over the central High Plains during the afternoon/evening. Farther east, a weak upper-level trough will move slowly eastward across parts of the Southeast, to the south of a building upper ridge across the Mid Atlantic/Northeast. ...Florida... Moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg) will likely develop during the afternoon across much of the FL Peninsula, resulting from seasonably strong diurnal heating of a relatively moist low-level environment. Diminishing MLCINH will support scattered thunderstorm development, especially in association with sea-breeze circulations and possibly near any other boundaries left over from overnight/early-morning convection. Very weak low-level flow and only modest deep-layer flow/shear will tend to limit storm organization and longevity, but storm interactions and locally enhanced shear near the sea breezes could yield a couple stronger multicells and perhaps a marginal supercell. With relatively cold temperatures aloft (-13C to -16C at 500 mb) associated with the upper trough, the strongest storms could pose an isolated hail threat. Locally gusty winds will also be possible, though the severe-wind threat appears relatively limited due to very weak low-level flow and limited potential for organized upscale growth. ..Dean/Weinman.. 03/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 PM CST Sat Mar 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... CORRECTED FOR THUNDER LINES ...SUMMARY... A few strong thunderstorms will be possible across parts of Florida during the afternoon and early evening. Isolated hail is expected to be the primary threat, though locally gusty winds may also occur. ...Synopsis... A deep upper-level trough will persist over the western CONUS through the period, as a strong embedded shortwave moves from the central High Plains toward the upper Great Lakes region. A surface low attendant to this shortwave will move northward across the Dakotas and Minnesota, with secondary cyclogenesis expected over the central High Plains during the afternoon/evening. Farther east, a weak upper-level trough will move slowly eastward across parts of the Southeast, to the south of a building upper ridge across the Mid Atlantic/Northeast. ...Florida... Moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg) will likely develop during the afternoon across much of the FL Peninsula, resulting from seasonably strong diurnal heating of a relatively moist low-level environment. Diminishing MLCINH will support scattered thunderstorm development, especially in association with sea-breeze circulations and possibly near any other boundaries left over from overnight/early-morning convection. Very weak low-level flow and only modest deep-layer flow/shear will tend to limit storm organization and longevity, but storm interactions and locally enhanced shear near the sea breezes could yield a couple stronger multicells and perhaps a marginal supercell. With relatively cold temperatures aloft (-13C to -16C at 500 mb) associated with the upper trough, the strongest storms could pose an isolated hail threat. Locally gusty winds will also be possible, though the severe-wind threat appears relatively limited due to very weak low-level flow and limited potential for organized upscale growth. ..Dean/Weinman.. 03/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 PM CST Sat Mar 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... CORRECTED FOR THUNDER LINES ...SUMMARY... A few strong thunderstorms will be possible across parts of Florida during the afternoon and early evening. Isolated hail is expected to be the primary threat, though locally gusty winds may also occur. ...Synopsis... A deep upper-level trough will persist over the western CONUS through the period, as a strong embedded shortwave moves from the central High Plains toward the upper Great Lakes region. A surface low attendant to this shortwave will move northward across the Dakotas and Minnesota, with secondary cyclogenesis expected over the central High Plains during the afternoon/evening. Farther east, a weak upper-level trough will move slowly eastward across parts of the Southeast, to the south of a building upper ridge across the Mid Atlantic/Northeast. ...Florida... Moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg) will likely develop during the afternoon across much of the FL Peninsula, resulting from seasonably strong diurnal heating of a relatively moist low-level environment. Diminishing MLCINH will support scattered thunderstorm development, especially in association with sea-breeze circulations and possibly near any other boundaries left over from overnight/early-morning convection. Very weak low-level flow and only modest deep-layer flow/shear will tend to limit storm organization and longevity, but storm interactions and locally enhanced shear near the sea breezes could yield a couple stronger multicells and perhaps a marginal supercell. With relatively cold temperatures aloft (-13C to -16C at 500 mb) associated with the upper trough, the strongest storms could pose an isolated hail threat. Locally gusty winds will also be possible, though the severe-wind threat appears relatively limited due to very weak low-level flow and limited potential for organized upscale growth. ..Dean/Weinman.. 03/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 PM CST Sat Mar 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... CORRECTED FOR THUNDER LINES ...SUMMARY... A few strong thunderstorms will be possible across parts of Florida during the afternoon and early evening. Isolated hail is expected to be the primary threat, though locally gusty winds may also occur. ...Synopsis... A deep upper-level trough will persist over the western CONUS through the period, as a strong embedded shortwave moves from the central High Plains toward the upper Great Lakes region. A surface low attendant to this shortwave will move northward across the Dakotas and Minnesota, with secondary cyclogenesis expected over the central High Plains during the afternoon/evening. Farther east, a weak upper-level trough will move slowly eastward across parts of the Southeast, to the south of a building upper ridge across the Mid Atlantic/Northeast. ...Florida... Moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg) will likely develop during the afternoon across much of the FL Peninsula, resulting from seasonably strong diurnal heating of a relatively moist low-level environment. Diminishing MLCINH will support scattered thunderstorm development, especially in association with sea-breeze circulations and possibly near any other boundaries left over from overnight/early-morning convection. Very weak low-level flow and only modest deep-layer flow/shear will tend to limit storm organization and longevity, but storm interactions and locally enhanced shear near the sea breezes could yield a couple stronger multicells and perhaps a marginal supercell. With relatively cold temperatures aloft (-13C to -16C at 500 mb) associated with the upper trough, the strongest storms could pose an isolated hail threat. Locally gusty winds will also be possible, though the severe-wind threat appears relatively limited due to very weak low-level flow and limited potential for organized upscale growth. ..Dean/Weinman.. 03/03/2024 Read more

MD 0184 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR PORTIONS OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CENTRAL SIERRA NEVADA
Mesoscale Discussion 0184 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0316 PM CST Sat Mar 02 2024 Areas affected...portions of the higher terrain of the central Sierra Nevada Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 022116Z - 030215Z SUMMARY...A gradual increase in heavy snowfall rates is anticipated heading into the late afternoon/evening hours within the higher terrain of the central Sierra Nevada range in California. Snowfall rates of 2-3 inches/hour appear possible. DISCUSSION...Surface observations and regional radar composites have recently shown a temporary lull in precipitation/snowfall rates along the higher terrain of the Sierra Nevada over the past hour. However, recent RAP upper air analyses and GOES water-vapor imagery indicate that the nose of a 100+ knot mid-level jet is beginning to push into central CA. Broadscale ascent within the left-exit region of this wave, combined with an increase in orographic ascent along the Sierra Nevada owing to strengthening mid-level winds, should promote a gradual uptick in precipitation across central CA late this afternoon into the evening hours. Recent high-res guidance indicates multiple rounds of heavier precipitation bands moving into the region during the 23-03 UTC time frame as ascent increases. Both deterministic and probabilistic guidance suggest that the potential for snowfall rates between 2-3 inches/hour will increase during this period for higher elevations (generally above 5 kft) where temperatures are below freezing. ..Moore.. 03/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...VEF...REV...HNX...STO... LAT...LON 36741877 37071933 38652051 38872057 39072040 39112017 38952003 38631982 38221940 37911914 37651895 37481864 37341848 37171837 36971833 36771829 36681841 36661854 36741877 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0655 PM CST Sat Mar 02 2024 Valid 030100Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are unlikely for the rest of tonight. ...Synopsis... Convection with sporadic lightning flashes is ongoing early this evening from parts of MT/WY into UT and western CO, though this convection is generally less organized than the frontal convection that produced severe gusts earlier today. While gusty winds remain possible with storms this evening, diminishing instability should tend to limit any organized severe risk. Elsewhere, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will remain possible this evening from south GA into FL, where locally moderate instability persists, but deep-layer shear is generally rather weak. Storms have been subsevere across this region thus far, and no appreciable increase in the severe risk is currently anticipated. For the Pacific Northwest into parts of CA, low-topped convection with sporadic lightning flashes will continue this evening, aided by cold temperatures aloft. ..Dean.. 03/03/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0655 PM CST Sat Mar 02 2024 Valid 030100Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are unlikely for the rest of tonight. ...Synopsis... Convection with sporadic lightning flashes is ongoing early this evening from parts of MT/WY into UT and western CO, though this convection is generally less organized than the frontal convection that produced severe gusts earlier today. While gusty winds remain possible with storms this evening, diminishing instability should tend to limit any organized severe risk. Elsewhere, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will remain possible this evening from south GA into FL, where locally moderate instability persists, but deep-layer shear is generally rather weak. Storms have been subsevere across this region thus far, and no appreciable increase in the severe risk is currently anticipated. For the Pacific Northwest into parts of CA, low-topped convection with sporadic lightning flashes will continue this evening, aided by cold temperatures aloft. ..Dean.. 03/03/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0655 PM CST Sat Mar 02 2024 Valid 030100Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are unlikely for the rest of tonight. ...Synopsis... Convection with sporadic lightning flashes is ongoing early this evening from parts of MT/WY into UT and western CO, though this convection is generally less organized than the frontal convection that produced severe gusts earlier today. While gusty winds remain possible with storms this evening, diminishing instability should tend to limit any organized severe risk. Elsewhere, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will remain possible this evening from south GA into FL, where locally moderate instability persists, but deep-layer shear is generally rather weak. Storms have been subsevere across this region thus far, and no appreciable increase in the severe risk is currently anticipated. For the Pacific Northwest into parts of CA, low-topped convection with sporadic lightning flashes will continue this evening, aided by cold temperatures aloft. ..Dean.. 03/03/2024 Read more

No watches are valid as of Sat Mar 2 22:22:01 UTC 2024.

MD 0184 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR PORTIONS OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CENTRAL SIERRA NEVADA
Mesoscale Discussion 0184 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0316 PM CST Sat Mar 02 2024 Areas affected...portions of the higher terrain of the central Sierra Nevada Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 022116Z - 030215Z SUMMARY...A gradual increase in heavy snowfall rates is anticipated heading into the late afternoon/evening hours within the higher terrain of the central Sierra Nevada range in California. Snowfall rates of 2-3 inches/hour appear possible. DISCUSSION...Surface observations and regional radar composites have recently shown a temporary lull in precipitation/snowfall rates along the higher terrain of the Sierra Nevada over the past hour. However, recent RAP upper air analyses and GOES water-vapor imagery indicate that the nose of a 100+ knot mid-level jet is beginning to push into central CA. Broadscale ascent within the left-exit region of this wave, combined with an increase in orographic ascent along the Sierra Nevada owing to strengthening mid-level winds, should promote a gradual uptick in precipitation across central CA late this afternoon into the evening hours. Recent high-res guidance indicates multiple rounds of heavier precipitation bands moving into the region during the 23-03 UTC time frame as ascent increases. Both deterministic and probabilistic guidance suggest that the potential for snowfall rates between 2-3 inches/hour will increase during this period for higher elevations (generally above 5 kft) where temperatures are below freezing. ..Moore.. 03/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...VEF...REV...HNX...STO... LAT...LON 36741877 37071933 38652051 38872057 39072040 39112017 38952003 38631982 38221940 37911914 37651895 37481864 37341848 37171837 36971833 36771829 36681841 36661854 36741877 Read more

MD 0182 CONCERNING SNOW SQUALL FOR SOUTHEAST IDAHO INTO FAR NORTHERN UTAH AND WESTERN WYOMING
Mesoscale Discussion 0182 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CST Sat Mar 02 2024 Areas affected...Southeast Idaho into far northern Utah and western Wyoming Concerning...Snow Squall Valid 021726Z - 022130Z SUMMARY...A snow squall moving across southeast Idaho into western Wyoming and far northern Utah will bring periods of moderate to heavy snowfall rates and potentially near-blizzard conditions. DISCUSSION...Over the past 1-2 hours, a somewhat organized shallow convective band has developed along an eastward-pushing cold front across southeast ID into northwest UT. Although temperatures are currently hovering near or just above freezing over the region, surface observations have reported visibility reductions down to 1/4 mile with the passage of the front, likely due to a combination of moderate to heavy snowfall rates as well as 35-45 mph wind gusts. Multiple lightning flashes have also been observed with the past 30 minutes associated with a few of the deeper convective cores. The downstream environment appears supportive for maintenance, if not enhancement, of the convective band with SBCAPE values around 250 J/kg noted in recent mesoanalyses with further destabilization up to around 500 J/kg possible by mid-afternoon across west/southwest WY. Furthermore, low-level lapse rates on the order of 8-9 C/km are noted across northern UT to central WY based on modified observed soundings and mesoanalysis fields. Dynamically, strong ascent within the left-exit region of the approach mid-level jet should continue to promote broadscale ascent favorable for further deepening of the attendant surface low, which should foster a strong frontal surge through the afternoon. The result will be a continuation of moderate to heavy snowfall rates and periods of near-blizzard conditions along and behind the snow squall/cold front for the next several hours. ..Moore.. 03/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...RIW...TFX...SLC...PIH... LAT...LON 41831313 42431264 42911236 43561209 44261207 44521200 44721158 44731064 44661006 44480931 44100909 43620896 42910912 42370930 41840983 41571051 41551128 41601298 41831313 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 PM CST Sat Mar 02 2024 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z A mid-level trough will eject into the northern Plains early this week, encouraging broad surface troughing and some low-level moisture return across eastern portions of the Plains states. Dry and occasionally breezy surface conditions are possible across portions of the southern into central High Plains as well as parts of the central Plains through much of the week. At the moment, these conditions appear localized, though a few Elevated highlights may be needed by the Days 1-2 periods. The best chance for at least Elevated surface winds/RH would be toward the end of the week (Days 6-8/Thursday_Saturday) over the southern High Plains as another mid-level trough amplifies over the southern U.S., encouraging dry downslope flow. ..Squitieri.. 03/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 PM CST Sat Mar 02 2024 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z A mid-level trough will eject into the northern Plains early this week, encouraging broad surface troughing and some low-level moisture return across eastern portions of the Plains states. Dry and occasionally breezy surface conditions are possible across portions of the southern into central High Plains as well as parts of the central Plains through much of the week. At the moment, these conditions appear localized, though a few Elevated highlights may be needed by the Days 1-2 periods. The best chance for at least Elevated surface winds/RH would be toward the end of the week (Days 6-8/Thursday_Saturday) over the southern High Plains as another mid-level trough amplifies over the southern U.S., encouraging dry downslope flow. ..Squitieri.. 03/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 PM CST Sat Mar 02 2024 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z A mid-level trough will eject into the northern Plains early this week, encouraging broad surface troughing and some low-level moisture return across eastern portions of the Plains states. Dry and occasionally breezy surface conditions are possible across portions of the southern into central High Plains as well as parts of the central Plains through much of the week. At the moment, these conditions appear localized, though a few Elevated highlights may be needed by the Days 1-2 periods. The best chance for at least Elevated surface winds/RH would be toward the end of the week (Days 6-8/Thursday_Saturday) over the southern High Plains as another mid-level trough amplifies over the southern U.S., encouraging dry downslope flow. ..Squitieri.. 03/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 PM CST Sat Mar 02 2024 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z A mid-level trough will eject into the northern Plains early this week, encouraging broad surface troughing and some low-level moisture return across eastern portions of the Plains states. Dry and occasionally breezy surface conditions are possible across portions of the southern into central High Plains as well as parts of the central Plains through much of the week. At the moment, these conditions appear localized, though a few Elevated highlights may be needed by the Days 1-2 periods. The best chance for at least Elevated surface winds/RH would be toward the end of the week (Days 6-8/Thursday_Saturday) over the southern High Plains as another mid-level trough amplifies over the southern U.S., encouraging dry downslope flow. ..Squitieri.. 03/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 PM CST Sat Mar 02 2024 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z A mid-level trough will eject into the northern Plains early this week, encouraging broad surface troughing and some low-level moisture return across eastern portions of the Plains states. Dry and occasionally breezy surface conditions are possible across portions of the southern into central High Plains as well as parts of the central Plains through much of the week. At the moment, these conditions appear localized, though a few Elevated highlights may be needed by the Days 1-2 periods. The best chance for at least Elevated surface winds/RH would be toward the end of the week (Days 6-8/Thursday_Saturday) over the southern High Plains as another mid-level trough amplifies over the southern U.S., encouraging dry downslope flow. ..Squitieri.. 03/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 PM CST Sat Mar 02 2024 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z A mid-level trough will eject into the northern Plains early this week, encouraging broad surface troughing and some low-level moisture return across eastern portions of the Plains states. Dry and occasionally breezy surface conditions are possible across portions of the southern into central High Plains as well as parts of the central Plains through much of the week. At the moment, these conditions appear localized, though a few Elevated highlights may be needed by the Days 1-2 periods. The best chance for at least Elevated surface winds/RH would be toward the end of the week (Days 6-8/Thursday_Saturday) over the southern High Plains as another mid-level trough amplifies over the southern U.S., encouraging dry downslope flow. ..Squitieri.. 03/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 PM CST Sat Mar 02 2024 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z A mid-level trough will eject into the northern Plains early this week, encouraging broad surface troughing and some low-level moisture return across eastern portions of the Plains states. Dry and occasionally breezy surface conditions are possible across portions of the southern into central High Plains as well as parts of the central Plains through much of the week. At the moment, these conditions appear localized, though a few Elevated highlights may be needed by the Days 1-2 periods. The best chance for at least Elevated surface winds/RH would be toward the end of the week (Days 6-8/Thursday_Saturday) over the southern High Plains as another mid-level trough amplifies over the southern U.S., encouraging dry downslope flow. ..Squitieri.. 03/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 PM CST Sat Mar 02 2024 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms - primarily posing a severe wind risk - are possible across portions of Utah this afternoon. ...Discussion... No appreciable change was made to the previously issued convective outlook. ..Smith.. 03/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1020 AM CST Sat Mar 02 2024/ ...Synopsis... Latest water-vapor imagery and upper-air analyses show a strong upper-level wave over the western CONUS with a 100-120 knot 500 mb jet nosing into central CA. This wave is expected to translate east into the Great Basin/inter-mountain West over the next 24 hours, which should support isolated thunderstorms across a large swath of the West Coast, Great Basin, and northern Rockies. Across the Southeast, isolated to scattered thunderstorms will continue as a diffuse cold frontal boundary continues to push east towards the Gulf/Atlantic coasts. ...Utah into far eastern Nevada... Recent surface observations reveal a 996 mb surface low over northeast NV into northwest UT with an attendant cold front draped to the southwest. This low/cold front is expected to push east across the Great Basin through the day in tandem with the mid-level trough axis. As this occurs, 50-60 knot low-level flow (sampled in 12 UTC soundings across NV and the KICX VWP) will overspread much of UT along/ahead of the front. Shallow convection is already noted along the front in IR imagery across central NV, and this activity should persist amid downstream destabilization through the afternoon. The combination of focused shallow convection along the front, 50-60 knot winds within the lowest 1-2 km, and somewhat steep low-level lapse rates (per forecast soundings and recent RAP mesoanalysis), suggests that a few strong to severe wind gusts are possible across portions of far eastern NV into UT this afternoon. ...Florida... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will continue across much of FL through the afternoon and evening as a cold frontal boundary gradually pushes southeast through the day. Regional 12 UTC soundings sampled poor mid-level lapse rates, but broken mid/high-level clouds have allowed for modest diurnal destabilization with temperatures climbing into the mid 70s. If temperatures can continue to warm into the low 80s, diurnal heating/mixing may be sufficient to overcome low-level inhibition and support a few deeper updrafts. With 30-40 knot mid-level level flow moving in this afternoon, a few stronger organized storms seem plausible. However, latest ensemble guidance shows a mixed signal on whether such heating can take place, and extensive cloud cover over the region limits overall confidence in the severe threat. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 PM CST Sat Mar 02 2024 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms - primarily posing a severe wind risk - are possible across portions of Utah this afternoon. ...Discussion... No appreciable change was made to the previously issued convective outlook. ..Smith.. 03/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1020 AM CST Sat Mar 02 2024/ ...Synopsis... Latest water-vapor imagery and upper-air analyses show a strong upper-level wave over the western CONUS with a 100-120 knot 500 mb jet nosing into central CA. This wave is expected to translate east into the Great Basin/inter-mountain West over the next 24 hours, which should support isolated thunderstorms across a large swath of the West Coast, Great Basin, and northern Rockies. Across the Southeast, isolated to scattered thunderstorms will continue as a diffuse cold frontal boundary continues to push east towards the Gulf/Atlantic coasts. ...Utah into far eastern Nevada... Recent surface observations reveal a 996 mb surface low over northeast NV into northwest UT with an attendant cold front draped to the southwest. This low/cold front is expected to push east across the Great Basin through the day in tandem with the mid-level trough axis. As this occurs, 50-60 knot low-level flow (sampled in 12 UTC soundings across NV and the KICX VWP) will overspread much of UT along/ahead of the front. Shallow convection is already noted along the front in IR imagery across central NV, and this activity should persist amid downstream destabilization through the afternoon. The combination of focused shallow convection along the front, 50-60 knot winds within the lowest 1-2 km, and somewhat steep low-level lapse rates (per forecast soundings and recent RAP mesoanalysis), suggests that a few strong to severe wind gusts are possible across portions of far eastern NV into UT this afternoon. ...Florida... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will continue across much of FL through the afternoon and evening as a cold frontal boundary gradually pushes southeast through the day. Regional 12 UTC soundings sampled poor mid-level lapse rates, but broken mid/high-level clouds have allowed for modest diurnal destabilization with temperatures climbing into the mid 70s. If temperatures can continue to warm into the low 80s, diurnal heating/mixing may be sufficient to overcome low-level inhibition and support a few deeper updrafts. With 30-40 knot mid-level level flow moving in this afternoon, a few stronger organized storms seem plausible. However, latest ensemble guidance shows a mixed signal on whether such heating can take place, and extensive cloud cover over the region limits overall confidence in the severe threat. Read more