Severe Storms

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1002 AM CST Sat Mar 02 2024 Valid 021700Z - 031200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL INTO SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 03/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0208 AM CST Sat Mar 02 2024/ ...Synopsis... An amplified large-scale trough accompanied by strong deep-layer west-southwesterly flow will move eastward across the western CONUS, with the leading edge of the strong flow aloft impinging on the Rockies during the afternoon hours. In response, a surface cyclone will rapidly deepen as it tracks slowly eastward across the northern Plains, while a deepening lee trough and tightening surface pressure gradient develop southward across much of the central and southern Plains. This large-scale pattern will result in an expansive area of warm, dry, and windy conditions across the central/southern High Plains, leading to a large area of elevated to high-end critical fire-weather conditions. ...Central and Southern High Plains... The strong deep-layer west-southwesterlies will support robust downslope warming/drying across the central and southern High Plains, where upper 60s to lower/middle 70s temperatures and 5-10 percent minimum RH is expected during the afternoon. At the same time, the tightening surface pressure gradient and deep boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft will favor an expansive area of 25 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with gusts upwards of 40 mph). Over the I-25 corridor, gusts could reach 50-60 mph, though RH will be slightly higher compared to areas farther east over the Plains. Given mostly receptive fuels across the central and southern High Plains, high-end critical fire-weather conditions are expected -- with the most volatile fire-weather conditions expected over portions of southern CO, northeast NM, and the TX Panhandle. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0628 AM CST Sat Mar 02 2024 Valid 021300Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are unlikely through early Sunday morning. ...Discussion... Cyclonic flow aloft is forecast to expand eastward across much of the western U.S. though the period, as embedded short-wave troughs south of the weakening low near the Vancouver Island vicinity eject eastward. As these smaller-scale disturbances shift eastward, ascent -- aided by westerly upslope flow -- will support convection and occasional lightning, particularly along windward-facing slopes across an increasingly broad area of the western states. Meanwhile, a southern-stream short-wave trough will cross the Southeast today and tonight. While lightning is ongoing over the Gulf of Mexico and off the southern Atlantic Coast over the Gulf Stream, occasional inland lightning will also be possible. In all areas, severe weather is not expected, with convection expected to remain weak and disorganized. ..Goss/Broyles.. 03/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0628 AM CST Sat Mar 02 2024 Valid 021300Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are unlikely through early Sunday morning. ...Discussion... Cyclonic flow aloft is forecast to expand eastward across much of the western U.S. though the period, as embedded short-wave troughs south of the weakening low near the Vancouver Island vicinity eject eastward. As these smaller-scale disturbances shift eastward, ascent -- aided by westerly upslope flow -- will support convection and occasional lightning, particularly along windward-facing slopes across an increasingly broad area of the western states. Meanwhile, a southern-stream short-wave trough will cross the Southeast today and tonight. While lightning is ongoing over the Gulf of Mexico and off the southern Atlantic Coast over the Gulf Stream, occasional inland lightning will also be possible. In all areas, severe weather is not expected, with convection expected to remain weak and disorganized. ..Goss/Broyles.. 03/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0628 AM CST Sat Mar 02 2024 Valid 021300Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are unlikely through early Sunday morning. ...Discussion... Cyclonic flow aloft is forecast to expand eastward across much of the western U.S. though the period, as embedded short-wave troughs south of the weakening low near the Vancouver Island vicinity eject eastward. As these smaller-scale disturbances shift eastward, ascent -- aided by westerly upslope flow -- will support convection and occasional lightning, particularly along windward-facing slopes across an increasingly broad area of the western states. Meanwhile, a southern-stream short-wave trough will cross the Southeast today and tonight. While lightning is ongoing over the Gulf of Mexico and off the southern Atlantic Coast over the Gulf Stream, occasional inland lightning will also be possible. In all areas, severe weather is not expected, with convection expected to remain weak and disorganized. ..Goss/Broyles.. 03/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0628 AM CST Sat Mar 02 2024 Valid 021300Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are unlikely through early Sunday morning. ...Discussion... Cyclonic flow aloft is forecast to expand eastward across much of the western U.S. though the period, as embedded short-wave troughs south of the weakening low near the Vancouver Island vicinity eject eastward. As these smaller-scale disturbances shift eastward, ascent -- aided by westerly upslope flow -- will support convection and occasional lightning, particularly along windward-facing slopes across an increasingly broad area of the western states. Meanwhile, a southern-stream short-wave trough will cross the Southeast today and tonight. While lightning is ongoing over the Gulf of Mexico and off the southern Atlantic Coast over the Gulf Stream, occasional inland lightning will also be possible. In all areas, severe weather is not expected, with convection expected to remain weak and disorganized. ..Goss/Broyles.. 03/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0628 AM CST Sat Mar 02 2024 Valid 021300Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are unlikely through early Sunday morning. ...Discussion... Cyclonic flow aloft is forecast to expand eastward across much of the western U.S. though the period, as embedded short-wave troughs south of the weakening low near the Vancouver Island vicinity eject eastward. As these smaller-scale disturbances shift eastward, ascent -- aided by westerly upslope flow -- will support convection and occasional lightning, particularly along windward-facing slopes across an increasingly broad area of the western states. Meanwhile, a southern-stream short-wave trough will cross the Southeast today and tonight. While lightning is ongoing over the Gulf of Mexico and off the southern Atlantic Coast over the Gulf Stream, occasional inland lightning will also be possible. In all areas, severe weather is not expected, with convection expected to remain weak and disorganized. ..Goss/Broyles.. 03/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0628 AM CST Sat Mar 02 2024 Valid 021300Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are unlikely through early Sunday morning. ...Discussion... Cyclonic flow aloft is forecast to expand eastward across much of the western U.S. though the period, as embedded short-wave troughs south of the weakening low near the Vancouver Island vicinity eject eastward. As these smaller-scale disturbances shift eastward, ascent -- aided by westerly upslope flow -- will support convection and occasional lightning, particularly along windward-facing slopes across an increasingly broad area of the western states. Meanwhile, a southern-stream short-wave trough will cross the Southeast today and tonight. While lightning is ongoing over the Gulf of Mexico and off the southern Atlantic Coast over the Gulf Stream, occasional inland lightning will also be possible. In all areas, severe weather is not expected, with convection expected to remain weak and disorganized. ..Goss/Broyles.. 03/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0628 AM CST Sat Mar 02 2024 Valid 021300Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are unlikely through early Sunday morning. ...Discussion... Cyclonic flow aloft is forecast to expand eastward across much of the western U.S. though the period, as embedded short-wave troughs south of the weakening low near the Vancouver Island vicinity eject eastward. As these smaller-scale disturbances shift eastward, ascent -- aided by westerly upslope flow -- will support convection and occasional lightning, particularly along windward-facing slopes across an increasingly broad area of the western states. Meanwhile, a southern-stream short-wave trough will cross the Southeast today and tonight. While lightning is ongoing over the Gulf of Mexico and off the southern Atlantic Coast over the Gulf Stream, occasional inland lightning will also be possible. In all areas, severe weather is not expected, with convection expected to remain weak and disorganized. ..Goss/Broyles.. 03/02/2024 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 AM CST Sat Mar 02 2024 Valid 051200Z - 101200Z ...DISCUSSION... Quasi-zonal flow aloft will be prevalent across the CONUS beginning next Tuesday. Model guidance has reasonable agreement that a lead shortwave trough will develop in the southern Appalachians late Tuesday into Wednesday. This feature will promote a modestly deep surface cyclone in the Southeast that will lift north and east with time. Farther west, a broader and more amplified trough is forecast to evolve within the lower Colorado River Valley by midweek. This lower-latitude feature will shift eastward and eject into the southern Plains around Thursday. While model guidance diverges on the evolution of this trough by the end of next week, the general theme is that the trough will intensify as it move into the Southeast. While there will be moisture return ahead of the stronger western trough, the presence of the surface low near the eastern Gulf will drive offshore flow. This will act to restrict the magnitude/quality of moisture return into the southern Plains. Severe weather could occur in the southern Plains on Thursday, but uncertainty remains too high for highlights. Additional potential for severe weather may exist Friday into the weekend from east Texas into the Southeast. However, given the low latitude nature of the trough, there is ample uncertainty as to the degree of quality moisture return inland. Models differ with regard to the position and evolution of the surface low next weekend. Confidence remains too low for highlights this far in advance. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 AM CST Sat Mar 02 2024 Valid 051200Z - 101200Z ...DISCUSSION... Quasi-zonal flow aloft will be prevalent across the CONUS beginning next Tuesday. Model guidance has reasonable agreement that a lead shortwave trough will develop in the southern Appalachians late Tuesday into Wednesday. This feature will promote a modestly deep surface cyclone in the Southeast that will lift north and east with time. Farther west, a broader and more amplified trough is forecast to evolve within the lower Colorado River Valley by midweek. This lower-latitude feature will shift eastward and eject into the southern Plains around Thursday. While model guidance diverges on the evolution of this trough by the end of next week, the general theme is that the trough will intensify as it move into the Southeast. While there will be moisture return ahead of the stronger western trough, the presence of the surface low near the eastern Gulf will drive offshore flow. This will act to restrict the magnitude/quality of moisture return into the southern Plains. Severe weather could occur in the southern Plains on Thursday, but uncertainty remains too high for highlights. Additional potential for severe weather may exist Friday into the weekend from east Texas into the Southeast. However, given the low latitude nature of the trough, there is ample uncertainty as to the degree of quality moisture return inland. Models differ with regard to the position and evolution of the surface low next weekend. Confidence remains too low for highlights this far in advance. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 AM CST Sat Mar 02 2024 Valid 051200Z - 101200Z ...DISCUSSION... Quasi-zonal flow aloft will be prevalent across the CONUS beginning next Tuesday. Model guidance has reasonable agreement that a lead shortwave trough will develop in the southern Appalachians late Tuesday into Wednesday. This feature will promote a modestly deep surface cyclone in the Southeast that will lift north and east with time. Farther west, a broader and more amplified trough is forecast to evolve within the lower Colorado River Valley by midweek. This lower-latitude feature will shift eastward and eject into the southern Plains around Thursday. While model guidance diverges on the evolution of this trough by the end of next week, the general theme is that the trough will intensify as it move into the Southeast. While there will be moisture return ahead of the stronger western trough, the presence of the surface low near the eastern Gulf will drive offshore flow. This will act to restrict the magnitude/quality of moisture return into the southern Plains. Severe weather could occur in the southern Plains on Thursday, but uncertainty remains too high for highlights. Additional potential for severe weather may exist Friday into the weekend from east Texas into the Southeast. However, given the low latitude nature of the trough, there is ample uncertainty as to the degree of quality moisture return inland. Models differ with regard to the position and evolution of the surface low next weekend. Confidence remains too low for highlights this far in advance. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 AM CST Sat Mar 02 2024 Valid 051200Z - 101200Z ...DISCUSSION... Quasi-zonal flow aloft will be prevalent across the CONUS beginning next Tuesday. Model guidance has reasonable agreement that a lead shortwave trough will develop in the southern Appalachians late Tuesday into Wednesday. This feature will promote a modestly deep surface cyclone in the Southeast that will lift north and east with time. Farther west, a broader and more amplified trough is forecast to evolve within the lower Colorado River Valley by midweek. This lower-latitude feature will shift eastward and eject into the southern Plains around Thursday. While model guidance diverges on the evolution of this trough by the end of next week, the general theme is that the trough will intensify as it move into the Southeast. While there will be moisture return ahead of the stronger western trough, the presence of the surface low near the eastern Gulf will drive offshore flow. This will act to restrict the magnitude/quality of moisture return into the southern Plains. Severe weather could occur in the southern Plains on Thursday, but uncertainty remains too high for highlights. Additional potential for severe weather may exist Friday into the weekend from east Texas into the Southeast. However, given the low latitude nature of the trough, there is ample uncertainty as to the degree of quality moisture return inland. Models differ with regard to the position and evolution of the surface low next weekend. Confidence remains too low for highlights this far in advance. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 AM CST Sat Mar 02 2024 Valid 051200Z - 101200Z ...DISCUSSION... Quasi-zonal flow aloft will be prevalent across the CONUS beginning next Tuesday. Model guidance has reasonable agreement that a lead shortwave trough will develop in the southern Appalachians late Tuesday into Wednesday. This feature will promote a modestly deep surface cyclone in the Southeast that will lift north and east with time. Farther west, a broader and more amplified trough is forecast to evolve within the lower Colorado River Valley by midweek. This lower-latitude feature will shift eastward and eject into the southern Plains around Thursday. While model guidance diverges on the evolution of this trough by the end of next week, the general theme is that the trough will intensify as it move into the Southeast. While there will be moisture return ahead of the stronger western trough, the presence of the surface low near the eastern Gulf will drive offshore flow. This will act to restrict the magnitude/quality of moisture return into the southern Plains. Severe weather could occur in the southern Plains on Thursday, but uncertainty remains too high for highlights. Additional potential for severe weather may exist Friday into the weekend from east Texas into the Southeast. However, given the low latitude nature of the trough, there is ample uncertainty as to the degree of quality moisture return inland. Models differ with regard to the position and evolution of the surface low next weekend. Confidence remains too low for highlights this far in advance. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 AM CST Sat Mar 02 2024 Valid 051200Z - 101200Z ...DISCUSSION... Quasi-zonal flow aloft will be prevalent across the CONUS beginning next Tuesday. Model guidance has reasonable agreement that a lead shortwave trough will develop in the southern Appalachians late Tuesday into Wednesday. This feature will promote a modestly deep surface cyclone in the Southeast that will lift north and east with time. Farther west, a broader and more amplified trough is forecast to evolve within the lower Colorado River Valley by midweek. This lower-latitude feature will shift eastward and eject into the southern Plains around Thursday. While model guidance diverges on the evolution of this trough by the end of next week, the general theme is that the trough will intensify as it move into the Southeast. While there will be moisture return ahead of the stronger western trough, the presence of the surface low near the eastern Gulf will drive offshore flow. This will act to restrict the magnitude/quality of moisture return into the southern Plains. Severe weather could occur in the southern Plains on Thursday, but uncertainty remains too high for highlights. Additional potential for severe weather may exist Friday into the weekend from east Texas into the Southeast. However, given the low latitude nature of the trough, there is ample uncertainty as to the degree of quality moisture return inland. Models differ with regard to the position and evolution of the surface low next weekend. Confidence remains too low for highlights this far in advance. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CST Sat Mar 02 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE ARKLATEX VICINITY INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible from the ArkLaTex vicinity into parts of the lower Mississippi Valley region on Monday. ...Synopsis... While a strong upper-level trough will move northward into Canada, broad troughing will remain across the south-central CONUS. A subtle, southern stream shortwave trough will move into the Sabine Valley and into the Southeast by the afternoon. A surface low in Oklahoma/Kansas will weaken during the day and a cold front will gradually sag southward toward the ArkLaTex by early Tuesday. A dryline is forecast to extent from south-central Oklahoma into parts of central Texas. ...ArkLaTex into the lower Mississippi Valley... Continued moistening at low levels through Monday evening and into Tuesday will lead weakened capping in the Sabine River vicinity Tuesday morning. As the subtle wave moves through, a few strong to severe thunderstorms may develop and move eastward. Despite strong enough shear for storm organization, storm interactions may lead to a messy mode. Steep mid-level lapse rates and long hodographs will promote large hail in the strongest storms. Damaging winds also may occur. Storms will eventually encounter drier air to the east and weaken. Capping will be stronger into southeast Oklahoma into Arkansas. Storm development is less certain in these areas. There is a conditional risk for a more supercellular mode should storms develop near the cold font/dryline intersection. These storms would pose a greater hail risk given favorable mode as well as greater instability/buoyancy. During the evening, the cold front will push southward. Storms may develop along the front. Deep-layer shear will be parallel to the front and a linear mode would be expected. Furthermore, there may be some tendency for storms to become elevated behind the boundary. Even so, initial updrafts would be capable of large hail and perhaps an isolated strong/damaging gust. ..Wendt.. 03/02/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CST Sat Mar 02 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE ARKLATEX VICINITY INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible from the ArkLaTex vicinity into parts of the lower Mississippi Valley region on Monday. ...Synopsis... While a strong upper-level trough will move northward into Canada, broad troughing will remain across the south-central CONUS. A subtle, southern stream shortwave trough will move into the Sabine Valley and into the Southeast by the afternoon. A surface low in Oklahoma/Kansas will weaken during the day and a cold front will gradually sag southward toward the ArkLaTex by early Tuesday. A dryline is forecast to extent from south-central Oklahoma into parts of central Texas. ...ArkLaTex into the lower Mississippi Valley... Continued moistening at low levels through Monday evening and into Tuesday will lead weakened capping in the Sabine River vicinity Tuesday morning. As the subtle wave moves through, a few strong to severe thunderstorms may develop and move eastward. Despite strong enough shear for storm organization, storm interactions may lead to a messy mode. Steep mid-level lapse rates and long hodographs will promote large hail in the strongest storms. Damaging winds also may occur. Storms will eventually encounter drier air to the east and weaken. Capping will be stronger into southeast Oklahoma into Arkansas. Storm development is less certain in these areas. There is a conditional risk for a more supercellular mode should storms develop near the cold font/dryline intersection. These storms would pose a greater hail risk given favorable mode as well as greater instability/buoyancy. During the evening, the cold front will push southward. Storms may develop along the front. Deep-layer shear will be parallel to the front and a linear mode would be expected. Furthermore, there may be some tendency for storms to become elevated behind the boundary. Even so, initial updrafts would be capable of large hail and perhaps an isolated strong/damaging gust. ..Wendt.. 03/02/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CST Sat Mar 02 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE ARKLATEX VICINITY INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible from the ArkLaTex vicinity into parts of the lower Mississippi Valley region on Monday. ...Synopsis... While a strong upper-level trough will move northward into Canada, broad troughing will remain across the south-central CONUS. A subtle, southern stream shortwave trough will move into the Sabine Valley and into the Southeast by the afternoon. A surface low in Oklahoma/Kansas will weaken during the day and a cold front will gradually sag southward toward the ArkLaTex by early Tuesday. A dryline is forecast to extent from south-central Oklahoma into parts of central Texas. ...ArkLaTex into the lower Mississippi Valley... Continued moistening at low levels through Monday evening and into Tuesday will lead weakened capping in the Sabine River vicinity Tuesday morning. As the subtle wave moves through, a few strong to severe thunderstorms may develop and move eastward. Despite strong enough shear for storm organization, storm interactions may lead to a messy mode. Steep mid-level lapse rates and long hodographs will promote large hail in the strongest storms. Damaging winds also may occur. Storms will eventually encounter drier air to the east and weaken. Capping will be stronger into southeast Oklahoma into Arkansas. Storm development is less certain in these areas. There is a conditional risk for a more supercellular mode should storms develop near the cold font/dryline intersection. These storms would pose a greater hail risk given favorable mode as well as greater instability/buoyancy. During the evening, the cold front will push southward. Storms may develop along the front. Deep-layer shear will be parallel to the front and a linear mode would be expected. Furthermore, there may be some tendency for storms to become elevated behind the boundary. Even so, initial updrafts would be capable of large hail and perhaps an isolated strong/damaging gust. ..Wendt.. 03/02/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CST Sat Mar 02 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE ARKLATEX VICINITY INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible from the ArkLaTex vicinity into parts of the lower Mississippi Valley region on Monday. ...Synopsis... While a strong upper-level trough will move northward into Canada, broad troughing will remain across the south-central CONUS. A subtle, southern stream shortwave trough will move into the Sabine Valley and into the Southeast by the afternoon. A surface low in Oklahoma/Kansas will weaken during the day and a cold front will gradually sag southward toward the ArkLaTex by early Tuesday. A dryline is forecast to extent from south-central Oklahoma into parts of central Texas. ...ArkLaTex into the lower Mississippi Valley... Continued moistening at low levels through Monday evening and into Tuesday will lead weakened capping in the Sabine River vicinity Tuesday morning. As the subtle wave moves through, a few strong to severe thunderstorms may develop and move eastward. Despite strong enough shear for storm organization, storm interactions may lead to a messy mode. Steep mid-level lapse rates and long hodographs will promote large hail in the strongest storms. Damaging winds also may occur. Storms will eventually encounter drier air to the east and weaken. Capping will be stronger into southeast Oklahoma into Arkansas. Storm development is less certain in these areas. There is a conditional risk for a more supercellular mode should storms develop near the cold font/dryline intersection. These storms would pose a greater hail risk given favorable mode as well as greater instability/buoyancy. During the evening, the cold front will push southward. Storms may develop along the front. Deep-layer shear will be parallel to the front and a linear mode would be expected. Furthermore, there may be some tendency for storms to become elevated behind the boundary. Even so, initial updrafts would be capable of large hail and perhaps an isolated strong/damaging gust. ..Wendt.. 03/02/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CST Sat Mar 02 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE ARKLATEX VICINITY INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible from the ArkLaTex vicinity into parts of the lower Mississippi Valley region on Monday. ...Synopsis... While a strong upper-level trough will move northward into Canada, broad troughing will remain across the south-central CONUS. A subtle, southern stream shortwave trough will move into the Sabine Valley and into the Southeast by the afternoon. A surface low in Oklahoma/Kansas will weaken during the day and a cold front will gradually sag southward toward the ArkLaTex by early Tuesday. A dryline is forecast to extent from south-central Oklahoma into parts of central Texas. ...ArkLaTex into the lower Mississippi Valley... Continued moistening at low levels through Monday evening and into Tuesday will lead weakened capping in the Sabine River vicinity Tuesday morning. As the subtle wave moves through, a few strong to severe thunderstorms may develop and move eastward. Despite strong enough shear for storm organization, storm interactions may lead to a messy mode. Steep mid-level lapse rates and long hodographs will promote large hail in the strongest storms. Damaging winds also may occur. Storms will eventually encounter drier air to the east and weaken. Capping will be stronger into southeast Oklahoma into Arkansas. Storm development is less certain in these areas. There is a conditional risk for a more supercellular mode should storms develop near the cold font/dryline intersection. These storms would pose a greater hail risk given favorable mode as well as greater instability/buoyancy. During the evening, the cold front will push southward. Storms may develop along the front. Deep-layer shear will be parallel to the front and a linear mode would be expected. Furthermore, there may be some tendency for storms to become elevated behind the boundary. Even so, initial updrafts would be capable of large hail and perhaps an isolated strong/damaging gust. ..Wendt.. 03/02/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CST Sat Mar 02 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE ARKLATEX VICINITY INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible from the ArkLaTex vicinity into parts of the lower Mississippi Valley region on Monday. ...Synopsis... While a strong upper-level trough will move northward into Canada, broad troughing will remain across the south-central CONUS. A subtle, southern stream shortwave trough will move into the Sabine Valley and into the Southeast by the afternoon. A surface low in Oklahoma/Kansas will weaken during the day and a cold front will gradually sag southward toward the ArkLaTex by early Tuesday. A dryline is forecast to extent from south-central Oklahoma into parts of central Texas. ...ArkLaTex into the lower Mississippi Valley... Continued moistening at low levels through Monday evening and into Tuesday will lead weakened capping in the Sabine River vicinity Tuesday morning. As the subtle wave moves through, a few strong to severe thunderstorms may develop and move eastward. Despite strong enough shear for storm organization, storm interactions may lead to a messy mode. Steep mid-level lapse rates and long hodographs will promote large hail in the strongest storms. Damaging winds also may occur. Storms will eventually encounter drier air to the east and weaken. Capping will be stronger into southeast Oklahoma into Arkansas. Storm development is less certain in these areas. There is a conditional risk for a more supercellular mode should storms develop near the cold font/dryline intersection. These storms would pose a greater hail risk given favorable mode as well as greater instability/buoyancy. During the evening, the cold front will push southward. Storms may develop along the front. Deep-layer shear will be parallel to the front and a linear mode would be expected. Furthermore, there may be some tendency for storms to become elevated behind the boundary. Even so, initial updrafts would be capable of large hail and perhaps an isolated strong/damaging gust. ..Wendt.. 03/02/2024 Read more