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1 year 5 months ago
SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 AM CST Sun Mar 03 2024
Valid 051200Z - 061200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
EAST TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms appear possible mainly
Tuesday morning across parts of east Texas into the lower
Mississippi Valley.
...East Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley...
Multiple clusters of thunderstorms will probably be ongoing at the
start of the period Tuesday morning from parts of east TX into the
lower MS Valley. Some of this activity could be strong to locally
severe, as a moist and modestly unstable airmass will be in place
across this region. A low-amplitude, southern-stream shortwave
trough is forecast to move quickly northeastward across the
Southeast and away from the lower MS Valley through the day.
Corresponding deep-layer shear should gradually weaken through
Tuesday afternoon as the related mid-level flow likewise lessens.
Still, there should be sufficient shear for at least modest updraft
organization with any ongoing convection Tuesday morning.
Occasional strong to damaging winds and perhaps isolated severe hail
may occur with more robust updrafts, before convection either
weakens or moves offshore. The potential for additional robust
thunderstorm development in the wake of the morning activity appears
highly uncertain/conditional. But, some guidance suggests that the
airmass will attempt to recover along/east of a dryline across east
TX into the ArkLaTex vicinity. Regardless, large-scale subsidence
behind the shortwave trough should tend to hinder additional
development both along the dryline and with a slowly
southeastward-moving cold front.
..Gleason.. 03/03/2024
Read more
1 year 5 months ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0148 AM CST Sun Mar 03 2024
Valid 041200Z - 051200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
Midlevel westerly flow will gradually weaken across the
central/southern Plains on D2/Monday, while a weak surface cyclone
departs the region. On the backside of this feature, locally
dry/breezy post-frontal conditions are expected across portions of
KS during the afternoon, yielding a brief period of elevated
fire-weather conditions. However, current indications are that these
conditions will be too brief/marginal for Elevated highlights.
Farther south, a weak/remnant lee cyclone over the central High
Plains will encourage breezy westerly surface winds amid marginally
low RH across portions of the southern High Plains during the
afternoon. Similarly, any elevated fire-weather conditions should
remain too localized/marginal for Elevated highlights.
..Weinman.. 03/03/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
1 year 5 months ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0148 AM CST Sun Mar 03 2024
Valid 041200Z - 051200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
Midlevel westerly flow will gradually weaken across the
central/southern Plains on D2/Monday, while a weak surface cyclone
departs the region. On the backside of this feature, locally
dry/breezy post-frontal conditions are expected across portions of
KS during the afternoon, yielding a brief period of elevated
fire-weather conditions. However, current indications are that these
conditions will be too brief/marginal for Elevated highlights.
Farther south, a weak/remnant lee cyclone over the central High
Plains will encourage breezy westerly surface winds amid marginally
low RH across portions of the southern High Plains during the
afternoon. Similarly, any elevated fire-weather conditions should
remain too localized/marginal for Elevated highlights.
..Weinman.. 03/03/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
1 year 5 months ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0148 AM CST Sun Mar 03 2024
Valid 041200Z - 051200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
Midlevel westerly flow will gradually weaken across the
central/southern Plains on D2/Monday, while a weak surface cyclone
departs the region. On the backside of this feature, locally
dry/breezy post-frontal conditions are expected across portions of
KS during the afternoon, yielding a brief period of elevated
fire-weather conditions. However, current indications are that these
conditions will be too brief/marginal for Elevated highlights.
Farther south, a weak/remnant lee cyclone over the central High
Plains will encourage breezy westerly surface winds amid marginally
low RH across portions of the southern High Plains during the
afternoon. Similarly, any elevated fire-weather conditions should
remain too localized/marginal for Elevated highlights.
..Weinman.. 03/03/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
1 year 5 months ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0148 AM CST Sun Mar 03 2024
Valid 041200Z - 051200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
Midlevel westerly flow will gradually weaken across the
central/southern Plains on D2/Monday, while a weak surface cyclone
departs the region. On the backside of this feature, locally
dry/breezy post-frontal conditions are expected across portions of
KS during the afternoon, yielding a brief period of elevated
fire-weather conditions. However, current indications are that these
conditions will be too brief/marginal for Elevated highlights.
Farther south, a weak/remnant lee cyclone over the central High
Plains will encourage breezy westerly surface winds amid marginally
low RH across portions of the southern High Plains during the
afternoon. Similarly, any elevated fire-weather conditions should
remain too localized/marginal for Elevated highlights.
..Weinman.. 03/03/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
1 year 5 months ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0147 AM CST Sun Mar 03 2024
Valid 031200Z - 041200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS...
...Synopsis...
A belt of strong west-southwesterly midlevel flow will persist
across the Rockies and adjacent Plains, while an embedded shortwave
trough and attendant surface cyclone lift northeastward across the
northern Plains. At the same time, the core of the strongest flow
aloft will overspread the central Rockies, encouraging secondary/lee
cyclogenesis over eastern CO into western KS. In response to these
developments, a tight surface pressure gradient will develop across
much of the Great Plains into the Mid/Upper MS Valley, where
seasonably warm, dry, and windy conditions will favor widespread
elevated to critical fire-weather conditions.
...Southern High Plains...
Along/south of the deepening lee cyclone over the central High
Plains, 20-25 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (higher
along the I-25 corridor) will develop across much of the southern
High Plains in response to the tightening surface pressure gradient.
In addition, deep boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft
will support gusts upwards of 30-40 mph over the Plains, and 50-60
mph gusts along the higher terrain/I-25 corridor. These strong/gusty
surface winds, coupled with 10-15 percent minimum RH (aided by the
strong downsloping), will yield critical fire-weather conditions
given dry fuels across the region. While a slight minimum in
sustained surface winds is possible over the TX South Plains (owing
to terrain influences), breezy/gusty winds amid single-digit RH
should still support near-critical to critical conditions.
For the northern Plains, the strongest westerly surface winds will
generally remain to the north of the lowest RH (where cooler surface
temperatures are expected). However, high-end elevated to locally
critical fire-weather conditions are still expected given 25 mph
sustained westerly surface winds (with higher gusts). Similarly,
20-25 mph sustained south-southwesterly surface winds (with higher
gusts) will develop across the Mid/Upper MS Valley -- along the
eastern periphery of the lowest RH. Despite the slightly higher RH
here, high-end elevated to near-critical fire-weather conditions are
still expected owing to the strong/gusty surface winds atop
increasingly receptive fuels.
..Weinman.. 03/03/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
1 year 5 months ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0147 AM CST Sun Mar 03 2024
Valid 031200Z - 041200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS...
...Synopsis...
A belt of strong west-southwesterly midlevel flow will persist
across the Rockies and adjacent Plains, while an embedded shortwave
trough and attendant surface cyclone lift northeastward across the
northern Plains. At the same time, the core of the strongest flow
aloft will overspread the central Rockies, encouraging secondary/lee
cyclogenesis over eastern CO into western KS. In response to these
developments, a tight surface pressure gradient will develop across
much of the Great Plains into the Mid/Upper MS Valley, where
seasonably warm, dry, and windy conditions will favor widespread
elevated to critical fire-weather conditions.
...Southern High Plains...
Along/south of the deepening lee cyclone over the central High
Plains, 20-25 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (higher
along the I-25 corridor) will develop across much of the southern
High Plains in response to the tightening surface pressure gradient.
In addition, deep boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft
will support gusts upwards of 30-40 mph over the Plains, and 50-60
mph gusts along the higher terrain/I-25 corridor. These strong/gusty
surface winds, coupled with 10-15 percent minimum RH (aided by the
strong downsloping), will yield critical fire-weather conditions
given dry fuels across the region. While a slight minimum in
sustained surface winds is possible over the TX South Plains (owing
to terrain influences), breezy/gusty winds amid single-digit RH
should still support near-critical to critical conditions.
For the northern Plains, the strongest westerly surface winds will
generally remain to the north of the lowest RH (where cooler surface
temperatures are expected). However, high-end elevated to locally
critical fire-weather conditions are still expected given 25 mph
sustained westerly surface winds (with higher gusts). Similarly,
20-25 mph sustained south-southwesterly surface winds (with higher
gusts) will develop across the Mid/Upper MS Valley -- along the
eastern periphery of the lowest RH. Despite the slightly higher RH
here, high-end elevated to near-critical fire-weather conditions are
still expected owing to the strong/gusty surface winds atop
increasingly receptive fuels.
..Weinman.. 03/03/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
1 year 5 months ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0147 AM CST Sun Mar 03 2024
Valid 031200Z - 041200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS...
...Synopsis...
A belt of strong west-southwesterly midlevel flow will persist
across the Rockies and adjacent Plains, while an embedded shortwave
trough and attendant surface cyclone lift northeastward across the
northern Plains. At the same time, the core of the strongest flow
aloft will overspread the central Rockies, encouraging secondary/lee
cyclogenesis over eastern CO into western KS. In response to these
developments, a tight surface pressure gradient will develop across
much of the Great Plains into the Mid/Upper MS Valley, where
seasonably warm, dry, and windy conditions will favor widespread
elevated to critical fire-weather conditions.
...Southern High Plains...
Along/south of the deepening lee cyclone over the central High
Plains, 20-25 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (higher
along the I-25 corridor) will develop across much of the southern
High Plains in response to the tightening surface pressure gradient.
In addition, deep boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft
will support gusts upwards of 30-40 mph over the Plains, and 50-60
mph gusts along the higher terrain/I-25 corridor. These strong/gusty
surface winds, coupled with 10-15 percent minimum RH (aided by the
strong downsloping), will yield critical fire-weather conditions
given dry fuels across the region. While a slight minimum in
sustained surface winds is possible over the TX South Plains (owing
to terrain influences), breezy/gusty winds amid single-digit RH
should still support near-critical to critical conditions.
For the northern Plains, the strongest westerly surface winds will
generally remain to the north of the lowest RH (where cooler surface
temperatures are expected). However, high-end elevated to locally
critical fire-weather conditions are still expected given 25 mph
sustained westerly surface winds (with higher gusts). Similarly,
20-25 mph sustained south-southwesterly surface winds (with higher
gusts) will develop across the Mid/Upper MS Valley -- along the
eastern periphery of the lowest RH. Despite the slightly higher RH
here, high-end elevated to near-critical fire-weather conditions are
still expected owing to the strong/gusty surface winds atop
increasingly receptive fuels.
..Weinman.. 03/03/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
1 year 5 months ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0147 AM CST Sun Mar 03 2024
Valid 031200Z - 041200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS...
...Synopsis...
A belt of strong west-southwesterly midlevel flow will persist
across the Rockies and adjacent Plains, while an embedded shortwave
trough and attendant surface cyclone lift northeastward across the
northern Plains. At the same time, the core of the strongest flow
aloft will overspread the central Rockies, encouraging secondary/lee
cyclogenesis over eastern CO into western KS. In response to these
developments, a tight surface pressure gradient will develop across
much of the Great Plains into the Mid/Upper MS Valley, where
seasonably warm, dry, and windy conditions will favor widespread
elevated to critical fire-weather conditions.
...Southern High Plains...
Along/south of the deepening lee cyclone over the central High
Plains, 20-25 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (higher
along the I-25 corridor) will develop across much of the southern
High Plains in response to the tightening surface pressure gradient.
In addition, deep boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft
will support gusts upwards of 30-40 mph over the Plains, and 50-60
mph gusts along the higher terrain/I-25 corridor. These strong/gusty
surface winds, coupled with 10-15 percent minimum RH (aided by the
strong downsloping), will yield critical fire-weather conditions
given dry fuels across the region. While a slight minimum in
sustained surface winds is possible over the TX South Plains (owing
to terrain influences), breezy/gusty winds amid single-digit RH
should still support near-critical to critical conditions.
For the northern Plains, the strongest westerly surface winds will
generally remain to the north of the lowest RH (where cooler surface
temperatures are expected). However, high-end elevated to locally
critical fire-weather conditions are still expected given 25 mph
sustained westerly surface winds (with higher gusts). Similarly,
20-25 mph sustained south-southwesterly surface winds (with higher
gusts) will develop across the Mid/Upper MS Valley -- along the
eastern periphery of the lowest RH. Despite the slightly higher RH
here, high-end elevated to near-critical fire-weather conditions are
still expected owing to the strong/gusty surface winds atop
increasingly receptive fuels.
..Weinman.. 03/03/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
1 year 5 months ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0147 AM CST Sun Mar 03 2024
Valid 031200Z - 041200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS...
...Synopsis...
A belt of strong west-southwesterly midlevel flow will persist
across the Rockies and adjacent Plains, while an embedded shortwave
trough and attendant surface cyclone lift northeastward across the
northern Plains. At the same time, the core of the strongest flow
aloft will overspread the central Rockies, encouraging secondary/lee
cyclogenesis over eastern CO into western KS. In response to these
developments, a tight surface pressure gradient will develop across
much of the Great Plains into the Mid/Upper MS Valley, where
seasonably warm, dry, and windy conditions will favor widespread
elevated to critical fire-weather conditions.
...Southern High Plains...
Along/south of the deepening lee cyclone over the central High
Plains, 20-25 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (higher
along the I-25 corridor) will develop across much of the southern
High Plains in response to the tightening surface pressure gradient.
In addition, deep boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft
will support gusts upwards of 30-40 mph over the Plains, and 50-60
mph gusts along the higher terrain/I-25 corridor. These strong/gusty
surface winds, coupled with 10-15 percent minimum RH (aided by the
strong downsloping), will yield critical fire-weather conditions
given dry fuels across the region. While a slight minimum in
sustained surface winds is possible over the TX South Plains (owing
to terrain influences), breezy/gusty winds amid single-digit RH
should still support near-critical to critical conditions.
For the northern Plains, the strongest westerly surface winds will
generally remain to the north of the lowest RH (where cooler surface
temperatures are expected). However, high-end elevated to locally
critical fire-weather conditions are still expected given 25 mph
sustained westerly surface winds (with higher gusts). Similarly,
20-25 mph sustained south-southwesterly surface winds (with higher
gusts) will develop across the Mid/Upper MS Valley -- along the
eastern periphery of the lowest RH. Despite the slightly higher RH
here, high-end elevated to near-critical fire-weather conditions are
still expected owing to the strong/gusty surface winds atop
increasingly receptive fuels.
..Weinman.. 03/03/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
1 year 5 months ago
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CST Sun Mar 03 2024
Valid 041200Z - 051200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
CENTRAL/EAST TEXAS INTO THE LOWER/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
MIDWEST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible Monday
through Monday night from parts of central Texas into the lower
Mississippi Valley, as well as the Ozarks into the Midwest. Large
hail should be the main threat, but occasional strong/gusty winds
may also occur.
...Synopsis...
A split flow upper pattern will persist on Monday across the CONUS,
with a southern-stream upper jet extending across northern Mexico
and parts of the southern Plains through the day. Farther north,
broad upper troughing will remain over much of the northwestern
states into the northern/central Plains and Upper Midwest. A subtle
mid-level shortwave trough moving eastward across TX and the lower
MS Valley may encourage convective development through the period,
while thunderstorm initiation from the Ozarks into the mid MS
Valley/Midwest may be tied more to a southeastward-moving cold front
Monday evening through early Tuesday morning.
...Central Texas into the ArkLaTex/Lower Mississippi Valley...
A moist low-level airmass will be present along/east of a surface
dryline across central TX Monday afternoon. The presence of steep
mid-level lapse rates and diurnal heating of the moist airmass will
support the development of weak to moderate instability from parts
of central/east TX into the lower MS Valley/Mid-South. While
mid-level flow is not forecast to be overly strong, it should still
be enough to foster some updraft organization with around 25-35 kt
of deep-layer shear. The main uncertainty is convective initiation
through the day, as a lingering cap and generally weak forcing
associated with the ejecting mid-level shortwave trough may keep
overall thunderstorm coverage fairly isolated.
Still, some guidance suggests that convection will gradually
increase in intensity and coverage through Monday evening in a
modest low-level warm advection regime. Additional thunderstorms may
develop along/east of the dryline extending southward into central
TX. Any convection that can initiate may pose an isolated threat for
large hail and strong to locally damaging winds as it continues
eastward through Monday night. The Marginal Risk has been expanded
westward into parts of central TX to account for the possibility of
isolated initiation along the dryline. But, confidence in a corridor
of greater severe potential remains too low to include higher severe
hail probabilities across this region.
...Ozarks into the mid Mississippi Valley and Midwest...
Elevated thunderstorms may be ongoing Monday morning across parts of
IA and vicinity, associated with a northeastward-ejecting shortwave
trough embedded within the larger upper troughing present over the
northern/central Plains. This activity is expected to remain
elevated as it continues northeastward across the Upper Midwest
through the day. At the surface, a weak low is forecast to develop
northeastward from the central Plains to the Midwest along a
southeastward-advancing cold front. Modest low-level moisture, with
surface dewpoints generally in the mid to upper 50s, should advance
northeastward through the period ahead of the front. Even with the
quality of the low-level moisture remaining limited, somewhat
steepened mid-level lapse rates should aid in at least weak MUCAPE
developing by Monday evening.
While the stronger mid/upper-level southwesterly flow will likely
remain displaced to the cool side of the front, sufficient
deep-layer shear to support updraft organization should be present
over the warm sector extending from the Ozarks into the mid MS
Valley/Midwest. Most guidance shows a convective precipitation
signal along the front beginning Monday evening and continuing
through early Tuesday morning. Isolated severe hail may occur with
any of the stronger cells that can develop and remain at least
semi-discrete. Occasional strong/gusty winds may also occur, even
though low-level stability from nocturnal cooling of the boundary
layer may mostly hinder convective downdrafts from reaching the
surface.
..Gleason.. 03/03/2024
Read more
1 year 5 months ago
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CST Sun Mar 03 2024
Valid 041200Z - 051200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
CENTRAL/EAST TEXAS INTO THE LOWER/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
MIDWEST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible Monday
through Monday night from parts of central Texas into the lower
Mississippi Valley, as well as the Ozarks into the Midwest. Large
hail should be the main threat, but occasional strong/gusty winds
may also occur.
...Synopsis...
A split flow upper pattern will persist on Monday across the CONUS,
with a southern-stream upper jet extending across northern Mexico
and parts of the southern Plains through the day. Farther north,
broad upper troughing will remain over much of the northwestern
states into the northern/central Plains and Upper Midwest. A subtle
mid-level shortwave trough moving eastward across TX and the lower
MS Valley may encourage convective development through the period,
while thunderstorm initiation from the Ozarks into the mid MS
Valley/Midwest may be tied more to a southeastward-moving cold front
Monday evening through early Tuesday morning.
...Central Texas into the ArkLaTex/Lower Mississippi Valley...
A moist low-level airmass will be present along/east of a surface
dryline across central TX Monday afternoon. The presence of steep
mid-level lapse rates and diurnal heating of the moist airmass will
support the development of weak to moderate instability from parts
of central/east TX into the lower MS Valley/Mid-South. While
mid-level flow is not forecast to be overly strong, it should still
be enough to foster some updraft organization with around 25-35 kt
of deep-layer shear. The main uncertainty is convective initiation
through the day, as a lingering cap and generally weak forcing
associated with the ejecting mid-level shortwave trough may keep
overall thunderstorm coverage fairly isolated.
Still, some guidance suggests that convection will gradually
increase in intensity and coverage through Monday evening in a
modest low-level warm advection regime. Additional thunderstorms may
develop along/east of the dryline extending southward into central
TX. Any convection that can initiate may pose an isolated threat for
large hail and strong to locally damaging winds as it continues
eastward through Monday night. The Marginal Risk has been expanded
westward into parts of central TX to account for the possibility of
isolated initiation along the dryline. But, confidence in a corridor
of greater severe potential remains too low to include higher severe
hail probabilities across this region.
...Ozarks into the mid Mississippi Valley and Midwest...
Elevated thunderstorms may be ongoing Monday morning across parts of
IA and vicinity, associated with a northeastward-ejecting shortwave
trough embedded within the larger upper troughing present over the
northern/central Plains. This activity is expected to remain
elevated as it continues northeastward across the Upper Midwest
through the day. At the surface, a weak low is forecast to develop
northeastward from the central Plains to the Midwest along a
southeastward-advancing cold front. Modest low-level moisture, with
surface dewpoints generally in the mid to upper 50s, should advance
northeastward through the period ahead of the front. Even with the
quality of the low-level moisture remaining limited, somewhat
steepened mid-level lapse rates should aid in at least weak MUCAPE
developing by Monday evening.
While the stronger mid/upper-level southwesterly flow will likely
remain displaced to the cool side of the front, sufficient
deep-layer shear to support updraft organization should be present
over the warm sector extending from the Ozarks into the mid MS
Valley/Midwest. Most guidance shows a convective precipitation
signal along the front beginning Monday evening and continuing
through early Tuesday morning. Isolated severe hail may occur with
any of the stronger cells that can develop and remain at least
semi-discrete. Occasional strong/gusty winds may also occur, even
though low-level stability from nocturnal cooling of the boundary
layer may mostly hinder convective downdrafts from reaching the
surface.
..Gleason.. 03/03/2024
Read more
1 year 5 months ago
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CST Sun Mar 03 2024
Valid 041200Z - 051200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
CENTRAL/EAST TEXAS INTO THE LOWER/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
MIDWEST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible Monday
through Monday night from parts of central Texas into the lower
Mississippi Valley, as well as the Ozarks into the Midwest. Large
hail should be the main threat, but occasional strong/gusty winds
may also occur.
...Synopsis...
A split flow upper pattern will persist on Monday across the CONUS,
with a southern-stream upper jet extending across northern Mexico
and parts of the southern Plains through the day. Farther north,
broad upper troughing will remain over much of the northwestern
states into the northern/central Plains and Upper Midwest. A subtle
mid-level shortwave trough moving eastward across TX and the lower
MS Valley may encourage convective development through the period,
while thunderstorm initiation from the Ozarks into the mid MS
Valley/Midwest may be tied more to a southeastward-moving cold front
Monday evening through early Tuesday morning.
...Central Texas into the ArkLaTex/Lower Mississippi Valley...
A moist low-level airmass will be present along/east of a surface
dryline across central TX Monday afternoon. The presence of steep
mid-level lapse rates and diurnal heating of the moist airmass will
support the development of weak to moderate instability from parts
of central/east TX into the lower MS Valley/Mid-South. While
mid-level flow is not forecast to be overly strong, it should still
be enough to foster some updraft organization with around 25-35 kt
of deep-layer shear. The main uncertainty is convective initiation
through the day, as a lingering cap and generally weak forcing
associated with the ejecting mid-level shortwave trough may keep
overall thunderstorm coverage fairly isolated.
Still, some guidance suggests that convection will gradually
increase in intensity and coverage through Monday evening in a
modest low-level warm advection regime. Additional thunderstorms may
develop along/east of the dryline extending southward into central
TX. Any convection that can initiate may pose an isolated threat for
large hail and strong to locally damaging winds as it continues
eastward through Monday night. The Marginal Risk has been expanded
westward into parts of central TX to account for the possibility of
isolated initiation along the dryline. But, confidence in a corridor
of greater severe potential remains too low to include higher severe
hail probabilities across this region.
...Ozarks into the mid Mississippi Valley and Midwest...
Elevated thunderstorms may be ongoing Monday morning across parts of
IA and vicinity, associated with a northeastward-ejecting shortwave
trough embedded within the larger upper troughing present over the
northern/central Plains. This activity is expected to remain
elevated as it continues northeastward across the Upper Midwest
through the day. At the surface, a weak low is forecast to develop
northeastward from the central Plains to the Midwest along a
southeastward-advancing cold front. Modest low-level moisture, with
surface dewpoints generally in the mid to upper 50s, should advance
northeastward through the period ahead of the front. Even with the
quality of the low-level moisture remaining limited, somewhat
steepened mid-level lapse rates should aid in at least weak MUCAPE
developing by Monday evening.
While the stronger mid/upper-level southwesterly flow will likely
remain displaced to the cool side of the front, sufficient
deep-layer shear to support updraft organization should be present
over the warm sector extending from the Ozarks into the mid MS
Valley/Midwest. Most guidance shows a convective precipitation
signal along the front beginning Monday evening and continuing
through early Tuesday morning. Isolated severe hail may occur with
any of the stronger cells that can develop and remain at least
semi-discrete. Occasional strong/gusty winds may also occur, even
though low-level stability from nocturnal cooling of the boundary
layer may mostly hinder convective downdrafts from reaching the
surface.
..Gleason.. 03/03/2024
Read more
1 year 5 months ago
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CST Sun Mar 03 2024
Valid 041200Z - 051200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
CENTRAL/EAST TEXAS INTO THE LOWER/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
MIDWEST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible Monday
through Monday night from parts of central Texas into the lower
Mississippi Valley, as well as the Ozarks into the Midwest. Large
hail should be the main threat, but occasional strong/gusty winds
may also occur.
...Synopsis...
A split flow upper pattern will persist on Monday across the CONUS,
with a southern-stream upper jet extending across northern Mexico
and parts of the southern Plains through the day. Farther north,
broad upper troughing will remain over much of the northwestern
states into the northern/central Plains and Upper Midwest. A subtle
mid-level shortwave trough moving eastward across TX and the lower
MS Valley may encourage convective development through the period,
while thunderstorm initiation from the Ozarks into the mid MS
Valley/Midwest may be tied more to a southeastward-moving cold front
Monday evening through early Tuesday morning.
...Central Texas into the ArkLaTex/Lower Mississippi Valley...
A moist low-level airmass will be present along/east of a surface
dryline across central TX Monday afternoon. The presence of steep
mid-level lapse rates and diurnal heating of the moist airmass will
support the development of weak to moderate instability from parts
of central/east TX into the lower MS Valley/Mid-South. While
mid-level flow is not forecast to be overly strong, it should still
be enough to foster some updraft organization with around 25-35 kt
of deep-layer shear. The main uncertainty is convective initiation
through the day, as a lingering cap and generally weak forcing
associated with the ejecting mid-level shortwave trough may keep
overall thunderstorm coverage fairly isolated.
Still, some guidance suggests that convection will gradually
increase in intensity and coverage through Monday evening in a
modest low-level warm advection regime. Additional thunderstorms may
develop along/east of the dryline extending southward into central
TX. Any convection that can initiate may pose an isolated threat for
large hail and strong to locally damaging winds as it continues
eastward through Monday night. The Marginal Risk has been expanded
westward into parts of central TX to account for the possibility of
isolated initiation along the dryline. But, confidence in a corridor
of greater severe potential remains too low to include higher severe
hail probabilities across this region.
...Ozarks into the mid Mississippi Valley and Midwest...
Elevated thunderstorms may be ongoing Monday morning across parts of
IA and vicinity, associated with a northeastward-ejecting shortwave
trough embedded within the larger upper troughing present over the
northern/central Plains. This activity is expected to remain
elevated as it continues northeastward across the Upper Midwest
through the day. At the surface, a weak low is forecast to develop
northeastward from the central Plains to the Midwest along a
southeastward-advancing cold front. Modest low-level moisture, with
surface dewpoints generally in the mid to upper 50s, should advance
northeastward through the period ahead of the front. Even with the
quality of the low-level moisture remaining limited, somewhat
steepened mid-level lapse rates should aid in at least weak MUCAPE
developing by Monday evening.
While the stronger mid/upper-level southwesterly flow will likely
remain displaced to the cool side of the front, sufficient
deep-layer shear to support updraft organization should be present
over the warm sector extending from the Ozarks into the mid MS
Valley/Midwest. Most guidance shows a convective precipitation
signal along the front beginning Monday evening and continuing
through early Tuesday morning. Isolated severe hail may occur with
any of the stronger cells that can develop and remain at least
semi-discrete. Occasional strong/gusty winds may also occur, even
though low-level stability from nocturnal cooling of the boundary
layer may mostly hinder convective downdrafts from reaching the
surface.
..Gleason.. 03/03/2024
Read more
1 year 5 months ago
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CST Sun Mar 03 2024
Valid 041200Z - 051200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
CENTRAL/EAST TEXAS INTO THE LOWER/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
MIDWEST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible Monday
through Monday night from parts of central Texas into the lower
Mississippi Valley, as well as the Ozarks into the Midwest. Large
hail should be the main threat, but occasional strong/gusty winds
may also occur.
...Synopsis...
A split flow upper pattern will persist on Monday across the CONUS,
with a southern-stream upper jet extending across northern Mexico
and parts of the southern Plains through the day. Farther north,
broad upper troughing will remain over much of the northwestern
states into the northern/central Plains and Upper Midwest. A subtle
mid-level shortwave trough moving eastward across TX and the lower
MS Valley may encourage convective development through the period,
while thunderstorm initiation from the Ozarks into the mid MS
Valley/Midwest may be tied more to a southeastward-moving cold front
Monday evening through early Tuesday morning.
...Central Texas into the ArkLaTex/Lower Mississippi Valley...
A moist low-level airmass will be present along/east of a surface
dryline across central TX Monday afternoon. The presence of steep
mid-level lapse rates and diurnal heating of the moist airmass will
support the development of weak to moderate instability from parts
of central/east TX into the lower MS Valley/Mid-South. While
mid-level flow is not forecast to be overly strong, it should still
be enough to foster some updraft organization with around 25-35 kt
of deep-layer shear. The main uncertainty is convective initiation
through the day, as a lingering cap and generally weak forcing
associated with the ejecting mid-level shortwave trough may keep
overall thunderstorm coverage fairly isolated.
Still, some guidance suggests that convection will gradually
increase in intensity and coverage through Monday evening in a
modest low-level warm advection regime. Additional thunderstorms may
develop along/east of the dryline extending southward into central
TX. Any convection that can initiate may pose an isolated threat for
large hail and strong to locally damaging winds as it continues
eastward through Monday night. The Marginal Risk has been expanded
westward into parts of central TX to account for the possibility of
isolated initiation along the dryline. But, confidence in a corridor
of greater severe potential remains too low to include higher severe
hail probabilities across this region.
...Ozarks into the mid Mississippi Valley and Midwest...
Elevated thunderstorms may be ongoing Monday morning across parts of
IA and vicinity, associated with a northeastward-ejecting shortwave
trough embedded within the larger upper troughing present over the
northern/central Plains. This activity is expected to remain
elevated as it continues northeastward across the Upper Midwest
through the day. At the surface, a weak low is forecast to develop
northeastward from the central Plains to the Midwest along a
southeastward-advancing cold front. Modest low-level moisture, with
surface dewpoints generally in the mid to upper 50s, should advance
northeastward through the period ahead of the front. Even with the
quality of the low-level moisture remaining limited, somewhat
steepened mid-level lapse rates should aid in at least weak MUCAPE
developing by Monday evening.
While the stronger mid/upper-level southwesterly flow will likely
remain displaced to the cool side of the front, sufficient
deep-layer shear to support updraft organization should be present
over the warm sector extending from the Ozarks into the mid MS
Valley/Midwest. Most guidance shows a convective precipitation
signal along the front beginning Monday evening and continuing
through early Tuesday morning. Isolated severe hail may occur with
any of the stronger cells that can develop and remain at least
semi-discrete. Occasional strong/gusty winds may also occur, even
though low-level stability from nocturnal cooling of the boundary
layer may mostly hinder convective downdrafts from reaching the
surface.
..Gleason.. 03/03/2024
Read more
1 year 5 months ago
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1155 PM CST Sat Mar 02 2024
Valid 031200Z - 041200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA...
CORRECTED FOR THUNDER LINES
...SUMMARY...
A few strong thunderstorms will be possible across parts of Florida
during the afternoon and early evening. Isolated hail is expected to
be the primary threat, though locally gusty winds may also occur.
...Synopsis...
A deep upper-level trough will persist over the western CONUS
through the period, as a strong embedded shortwave moves from the
central High Plains toward the upper Great Lakes region. A surface
low attendant to this shortwave will move northward across the
Dakotas and Minnesota, with secondary cyclogenesis expected over the
central High Plains during the afternoon/evening. Farther east, a
weak upper-level trough will move slowly eastward across parts of
the Southeast, to the south of a building upper ridge across the Mid
Atlantic/Northeast.
...Florida...
Moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg) will likely develop
during the afternoon across much of the FL Peninsula, resulting from
seasonably strong diurnal heating of a relatively moist low-level
environment. Diminishing MLCINH will support scattered thunderstorm
development, especially in association with sea-breeze circulations
and possibly near any other boundaries left over from
overnight/early-morning convection.
Very weak low-level flow and only modest deep-layer flow/shear will
tend to limit storm organization and longevity, but storm
interactions and locally enhanced shear near the sea breezes could
yield a couple stronger multicells and perhaps a marginal supercell.
With relatively cold temperatures aloft (-13C to -16C at 500 mb)
associated with the upper trough, the strongest storms could pose an
isolated hail threat. Locally gusty winds will also be possible,
though the severe-wind threat appears relatively limited due to very
weak low-level flow and limited potential for organized upscale
growth.
..Dean/Weinman.. 03/03/2024
Read more
1 year 5 months ago
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1155 PM CST Sat Mar 02 2024
Valid 031200Z - 041200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA...
CORRECTED FOR THUNDER LINES
...SUMMARY...
A few strong thunderstorms will be possible across parts of Florida
during the afternoon and early evening. Isolated hail is expected to
be the primary threat, though locally gusty winds may also occur.
...Synopsis...
A deep upper-level trough will persist over the western CONUS
through the period, as a strong embedded shortwave moves from the
central High Plains toward the upper Great Lakes region. A surface
low attendant to this shortwave will move northward across the
Dakotas and Minnesota, with secondary cyclogenesis expected over the
central High Plains during the afternoon/evening. Farther east, a
weak upper-level trough will move slowly eastward across parts of
the Southeast, to the south of a building upper ridge across the Mid
Atlantic/Northeast.
...Florida...
Moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg) will likely develop
during the afternoon across much of the FL Peninsula, resulting from
seasonably strong diurnal heating of a relatively moist low-level
environment. Diminishing MLCINH will support scattered thunderstorm
development, especially in association with sea-breeze circulations
and possibly near any other boundaries left over from
overnight/early-morning convection.
Very weak low-level flow and only modest deep-layer flow/shear will
tend to limit storm organization and longevity, but storm
interactions and locally enhanced shear near the sea breezes could
yield a couple stronger multicells and perhaps a marginal supercell.
With relatively cold temperatures aloft (-13C to -16C at 500 mb)
associated with the upper trough, the strongest storms could pose an
isolated hail threat. Locally gusty winds will also be possible,
though the severe-wind threat appears relatively limited due to very
weak low-level flow and limited potential for organized upscale
growth.
..Dean/Weinman.. 03/03/2024
Read more
1 year 5 months ago
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1155 PM CST Sat Mar 02 2024
Valid 031200Z - 041200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA...
CORRECTED FOR THUNDER LINES
...SUMMARY...
A few strong thunderstorms will be possible across parts of Florida
during the afternoon and early evening. Isolated hail is expected to
be the primary threat, though locally gusty winds may also occur.
...Synopsis...
A deep upper-level trough will persist over the western CONUS
through the period, as a strong embedded shortwave moves from the
central High Plains toward the upper Great Lakes region. A surface
low attendant to this shortwave will move northward across the
Dakotas and Minnesota, with secondary cyclogenesis expected over the
central High Plains during the afternoon/evening. Farther east, a
weak upper-level trough will move slowly eastward across parts of
the Southeast, to the south of a building upper ridge across the Mid
Atlantic/Northeast.
...Florida...
Moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg) will likely develop
during the afternoon across much of the FL Peninsula, resulting from
seasonably strong diurnal heating of a relatively moist low-level
environment. Diminishing MLCINH will support scattered thunderstorm
development, especially in association with sea-breeze circulations
and possibly near any other boundaries left over from
overnight/early-morning convection.
Very weak low-level flow and only modest deep-layer flow/shear will
tend to limit storm organization and longevity, but storm
interactions and locally enhanced shear near the sea breezes could
yield a couple stronger multicells and perhaps a marginal supercell.
With relatively cold temperatures aloft (-13C to -16C at 500 mb)
associated with the upper trough, the strongest storms could pose an
isolated hail threat. Locally gusty winds will also be possible,
though the severe-wind threat appears relatively limited due to very
weak low-level flow and limited potential for organized upscale
growth.
..Dean/Weinman.. 03/03/2024
Read more
1 year 5 months ago
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1155 PM CST Sat Mar 02 2024
Valid 031200Z - 041200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA...
CORRECTED FOR THUNDER LINES
...SUMMARY...
A few strong thunderstorms will be possible across parts of Florida
during the afternoon and early evening. Isolated hail is expected to
be the primary threat, though locally gusty winds may also occur.
...Synopsis...
A deep upper-level trough will persist over the western CONUS
through the period, as a strong embedded shortwave moves from the
central High Plains toward the upper Great Lakes region. A surface
low attendant to this shortwave will move northward across the
Dakotas and Minnesota, with secondary cyclogenesis expected over the
central High Plains during the afternoon/evening. Farther east, a
weak upper-level trough will move slowly eastward across parts of
the Southeast, to the south of a building upper ridge across the Mid
Atlantic/Northeast.
...Florida...
Moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg) will likely develop
during the afternoon across much of the FL Peninsula, resulting from
seasonably strong diurnal heating of a relatively moist low-level
environment. Diminishing MLCINH will support scattered thunderstorm
development, especially in association with sea-breeze circulations
and possibly near any other boundaries left over from
overnight/early-morning convection.
Very weak low-level flow and only modest deep-layer flow/shear will
tend to limit storm organization and longevity, but storm
interactions and locally enhanced shear near the sea breezes could
yield a couple stronger multicells and perhaps a marginal supercell.
With relatively cold temperatures aloft (-13C to -16C at 500 mb)
associated with the upper trough, the strongest storms could pose an
isolated hail threat. Locally gusty winds will also be possible,
though the severe-wind threat appears relatively limited due to very
weak low-level flow and limited potential for organized upscale
growth.
..Dean/Weinman.. 03/03/2024
Read more
1 year 5 months ago
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1155 PM CST Sat Mar 02 2024
Valid 031200Z - 041200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA...
CORRECTED FOR THUNDER LINES
...SUMMARY...
A few strong thunderstorms will be possible across parts of Florida
during the afternoon and early evening. Isolated hail is expected to
be the primary threat, though locally gusty winds may also occur.
...Synopsis...
A deep upper-level trough will persist over the western CONUS
through the period, as a strong embedded shortwave moves from the
central High Plains toward the upper Great Lakes region. A surface
low attendant to this shortwave will move northward across the
Dakotas and Minnesota, with secondary cyclogenesis expected over the
central High Plains during the afternoon/evening. Farther east, a
weak upper-level trough will move slowly eastward across parts of
the Southeast, to the south of a building upper ridge across the Mid
Atlantic/Northeast.
...Florida...
Moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg) will likely develop
during the afternoon across much of the FL Peninsula, resulting from
seasonably strong diurnal heating of a relatively moist low-level
environment. Diminishing MLCINH will support scattered thunderstorm
development, especially in association with sea-breeze circulations
and possibly near any other boundaries left over from
overnight/early-morning convection.
Very weak low-level flow and only modest deep-layer flow/shear will
tend to limit storm organization and longevity, but storm
interactions and locally enhanced shear near the sea breezes could
yield a couple stronger multicells and perhaps a marginal supercell.
With relatively cold temperatures aloft (-13C to -16C at 500 mb)
associated with the upper trough, the strongest storms could pose an
isolated hail threat. Locally gusty winds will also be possible,
though the severe-wind threat appears relatively limited due to very
weak low-level flow and limited potential for organized upscale
growth.
..Dean/Weinman.. 03/03/2024
Read more
Checked
5 years 10 months ago
Storm Prediction Center
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