Severe Storms

MD 0186 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA
Mesoscale Discussion 0186 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1206 PM CST Sun Mar 03 2024 Areas affected...central and southern Florida Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 031806Z - 032030Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Scattered strong thunderstorm development appears probable across much of the interior into southeastern peninsular Florida through 3-5 PM EST, accompanied by small to marginally severe hail and a risk for localized damaging wind gusts. DISCUSSION...Weak deep-layer warm advection appears underway across much of the Florida peninsula, with low-amplitude mid-level troughing in the process of gradually shifting offshore of the Atlantic coast. However, around 500 mb, temperatures are still generally around -13 to -15 C, with one lingering axis of colder temperatures forecast to spread across the interior peninsula into Atlantic coastal areas through 21-23Z. Beneath this environment, daytime heating of a relatively moist boundary layer with surface dew points ranging from the mid 60s to near 70 F is contributing to substantive destabilization, with CAPE increasing through 1000-1500+ J/kg. Although low-level convergence, and forcing for upward vertical motion in general, appears weak, deepening convection with widely scattered thunderstorm development is underway across the interior through southeastern peninsula coastal areas. And a gradual further increase and intensification of storms seems probable through mid to late afternoon, as potential instability peaks. Although flow in the lowest 5-6 km AGL is generally weak, stronger flow (50+ kt) in higher levels may still enhance thunderstorm development, and contribute to potential for small to marginally severe hail in the stronger cells developing this afternoon. As low-level lapse rates continue to steepen, heavy precipitation loading and latent cooling aided by melting hail probably will also contribute to potential for isolated locally damaging downbursts. ..Kerr/Hart.. 03/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX... LAT...LON 29618263 29658184 28808139 28348083 27778056 27138002 25998046 26348091 26608135 27628165 28158220 28698224 29618263 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 PM CST Sun Mar 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z Elevated highlights have been introduced for Day 2/Monday across portions of the southern High Plains. Here, the latest guidance consensus has trended warmer/windier, with most deterministic members and the HREF-member consensus showing periodic bouts of 15 mph sustained westerly surface winds coinciding with 15-20 percent RH for several hours tomorrow afternoon. Though the anticipated Elevated conditions are relatively low-end, continued dry conditions and available receptive fuels necessitates the addition of fire weather highlights this outlook. ..Squitieri.. 03/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0148 AM CST Sun Mar 03 2024/ ...Synopsis... Midlevel westerly flow will gradually weaken across the central/southern Plains on D2/Monday, while a weak surface cyclone departs the region. On the backside of this feature, locally dry/breezy post-frontal conditions are expected across portions of KS during the afternoon, yielding a brief period of elevated fire-weather conditions. However, current indications are that these conditions will be too brief/marginal for Elevated highlights. Farther south, a weak/remnant lee cyclone over the central High Plains will encourage breezy westerly surface winds amid marginally low RH across portions of the southern High Plains during the afternoon. Similarly, any elevated fire-weather conditions should remain too localized/marginal for Elevated highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 PM CST Sun Mar 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z Elevated highlights have been introduced for Day 2/Monday across portions of the southern High Plains. Here, the latest guidance consensus has trended warmer/windier, with most deterministic members and the HREF-member consensus showing periodic bouts of 15 mph sustained westerly surface winds coinciding with 15-20 percent RH for several hours tomorrow afternoon. Though the anticipated Elevated conditions are relatively low-end, continued dry conditions and available receptive fuels necessitates the addition of fire weather highlights this outlook. ..Squitieri.. 03/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0148 AM CST Sun Mar 03 2024/ ...Synopsis... Midlevel westerly flow will gradually weaken across the central/southern Plains on D2/Monday, while a weak surface cyclone departs the region. On the backside of this feature, locally dry/breezy post-frontal conditions are expected across portions of KS during the afternoon, yielding a brief period of elevated fire-weather conditions. However, current indications are that these conditions will be too brief/marginal for Elevated highlights. Farther south, a weak/remnant lee cyclone over the central High Plains will encourage breezy westerly surface winds amid marginally low RH across portions of the southern High Plains during the afternoon. Similarly, any elevated fire-weather conditions should remain too localized/marginal for Elevated highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 PM CST Sun Mar 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z Elevated highlights have been introduced for Day 2/Monday across portions of the southern High Plains. Here, the latest guidance consensus has trended warmer/windier, with most deterministic members and the HREF-member consensus showing periodic bouts of 15 mph sustained westerly surface winds coinciding with 15-20 percent RH for several hours tomorrow afternoon. Though the anticipated Elevated conditions are relatively low-end, continued dry conditions and available receptive fuels necessitates the addition of fire weather highlights this outlook. ..Squitieri.. 03/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0148 AM CST Sun Mar 03 2024/ ...Synopsis... Midlevel westerly flow will gradually weaken across the central/southern Plains on D2/Monday, while a weak surface cyclone departs the region. On the backside of this feature, locally dry/breezy post-frontal conditions are expected across portions of KS during the afternoon, yielding a brief period of elevated fire-weather conditions. However, current indications are that these conditions will be too brief/marginal for Elevated highlights. Farther south, a weak/remnant lee cyclone over the central High Plains will encourage breezy westerly surface winds amid marginally low RH across portions of the southern High Plains during the afternoon. Similarly, any elevated fire-weather conditions should remain too localized/marginal for Elevated highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 PM CST Sun Mar 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z Elevated highlights have been introduced for Day 2/Monday across portions of the southern High Plains. Here, the latest guidance consensus has trended warmer/windier, with most deterministic members and the HREF-member consensus showing periodic bouts of 15 mph sustained westerly surface winds coinciding with 15-20 percent RH for several hours tomorrow afternoon. Though the anticipated Elevated conditions are relatively low-end, continued dry conditions and available receptive fuels necessitates the addition of fire weather highlights this outlook. ..Squitieri.. 03/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0148 AM CST Sun Mar 03 2024/ ...Synopsis... Midlevel westerly flow will gradually weaken across the central/southern Plains on D2/Monday, while a weak surface cyclone departs the region. On the backside of this feature, locally dry/breezy post-frontal conditions are expected across portions of KS during the afternoon, yielding a brief period of elevated fire-weather conditions. However, current indications are that these conditions will be too brief/marginal for Elevated highlights. Farther south, a weak/remnant lee cyclone over the central High Plains will encourage breezy westerly surface winds amid marginally low RH across portions of the southern High Plains during the afternoon. Similarly, any elevated fire-weather conditions should remain too localized/marginal for Elevated highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 PM CST Sun Mar 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z Elevated highlights have been introduced for Day 2/Monday across portions of the southern High Plains. Here, the latest guidance consensus has trended warmer/windier, with most deterministic members and the HREF-member consensus showing periodic bouts of 15 mph sustained westerly surface winds coinciding with 15-20 percent RH for several hours tomorrow afternoon. Though the anticipated Elevated conditions are relatively low-end, continued dry conditions and available receptive fuels necessitates the addition of fire weather highlights this outlook. ..Squitieri.. 03/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0148 AM CST Sun Mar 03 2024/ ...Synopsis... Midlevel westerly flow will gradually weaken across the central/southern Plains on D2/Monday, while a weak surface cyclone departs the region. On the backside of this feature, locally dry/breezy post-frontal conditions are expected across portions of KS during the afternoon, yielding a brief period of elevated fire-weather conditions. However, current indications are that these conditions will be too brief/marginal for Elevated highlights. Farther south, a weak/remnant lee cyclone over the central High Plains will encourage breezy westerly surface winds amid marginally low RH across portions of the southern High Plains during the afternoon. Similarly, any elevated fire-weather conditions should remain too localized/marginal for Elevated highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 PM CST Sun Mar 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z Elevated highlights have been introduced for Day 2/Monday across portions of the southern High Plains. Here, the latest guidance consensus has trended warmer/windier, with most deterministic members and the HREF-member consensus showing periodic bouts of 15 mph sustained westerly surface winds coinciding with 15-20 percent RH for several hours tomorrow afternoon. Though the anticipated Elevated conditions are relatively low-end, continued dry conditions and available receptive fuels necessitates the addition of fire weather highlights this outlook. ..Squitieri.. 03/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0148 AM CST Sun Mar 03 2024/ ...Synopsis... Midlevel westerly flow will gradually weaken across the central/southern Plains on D2/Monday, while a weak surface cyclone departs the region. On the backside of this feature, locally dry/breezy post-frontal conditions are expected across portions of KS during the afternoon, yielding a brief period of elevated fire-weather conditions. However, current indications are that these conditions will be too brief/marginal for Elevated highlights. Farther south, a weak/remnant lee cyclone over the central High Plains will encourage breezy westerly surface winds amid marginally low RH across portions of the southern High Plains during the afternoon. Similarly, any elevated fire-weather conditions should remain too localized/marginal for Elevated highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 PM CST Sun Mar 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z Elevated highlights have been introduced for Day 2/Monday across portions of the southern High Plains. Here, the latest guidance consensus has trended warmer/windier, with most deterministic members and the HREF-member consensus showing periodic bouts of 15 mph sustained westerly surface winds coinciding with 15-20 percent RH for several hours tomorrow afternoon. Though the anticipated Elevated conditions are relatively low-end, continued dry conditions and available receptive fuels necessitates the addition of fire weather highlights this outlook. ..Squitieri.. 03/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0148 AM CST Sun Mar 03 2024/ ...Synopsis... Midlevel westerly flow will gradually weaken across the central/southern Plains on D2/Monday, while a weak surface cyclone departs the region. On the backside of this feature, locally dry/breezy post-frontal conditions are expected across portions of KS during the afternoon, yielding a brief period of elevated fire-weather conditions. However, current indications are that these conditions will be too brief/marginal for Elevated highlights. Farther south, a weak/remnant lee cyclone over the central High Plains will encourage breezy westerly surface winds amid marginally low RH across portions of the southern High Plains during the afternoon. Similarly, any elevated fire-weather conditions should remain too localized/marginal for Elevated highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1132 AM CST Sun Mar 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS INTO THE LOWER AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible Monday through Monday night from parts of central Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley, as well as the Ozarks into the Midwest. Large hail should be the main threat, but occasional strong/gusty winds may also occur. ...WI and mid MS Valley... A belt of strong southwesterly mid-level flow will extend through the base of a larger-scale trough situated over the north-central U.S. on Monday. Although an occluded surface low will migrate north into northwest Ontario during the day, a secondary weak frontal wave over the central Great Plains will move east towards the WI/IA/IL vicinity. Southerly low-level flow will transport increasingly moist air and a destabilizing airmass northward into the southwest Great Lakes/mid MS Valley. The latest model guidance varies some on the latitudinal extent of an appreciably unstable warm sector (south-central WI vs. WI/IL border). Relatively cool 500-mb temperatures (-17 deg C) with surface temperatures warming into the 60s to low-mid 70s with dewpoint into the 50s, indicate 500-1500 J/kg MLCAPE possible during the afternoon/early evening the southeastern fringe of stronger southwesterlies. It remains unclear whether storms will preferentially develop on the front or whether a mix of frontal and warm sector storms will develop. If storms manage to initiate away from the front (uncertain but possible at this point based on the latest guidance), an isolated supercell threat with accompanying hazards may develop over the WI/northern IL vicinity. Additional storm development is likely during the evening along the front with this activity diminishing in intensity as it moves into IN during the overnight. ...Southern Plains into the lower MS Valley... A mid-level disturbance, embedded within the southern stream of strong westerly flow across the southern U.S., is forecast to move from northern Mexico and across TX and into the lower MS Valley during the period. Aside from this mid-level feature, forcing will remain somewhat nebulous/weak within a gradually moistening environment over the southern Great Plains into the lower MS Valley. A dryline over the Edwards Plateau into north TX may focus a few widely spaced thunderstorms during the late afternoon/early evening. Relatively cool mid-level profiles atop a warm boundary layer will result in steep lapse rates. Strong high-level westerly flow will probably aid in some storm organization with large hail a possibility with any robust/sustained storm. A more moist/weaker instability regime will focus over the lower MS Valley. Some of the stronger storms will potentially be capable of a large hail/damaging wind threat. Some of the stronger storm activity could linger into the evening hours before gradually diminishing. ..Smith.. 03/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1132 AM CST Sun Mar 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS INTO THE LOWER AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible Monday through Monday night from parts of central Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley, as well as the Ozarks into the Midwest. Large hail should be the main threat, but occasional strong/gusty winds may also occur. ...WI and mid MS Valley... A belt of strong southwesterly mid-level flow will extend through the base of a larger-scale trough situated over the north-central U.S. on Monday. Although an occluded surface low will migrate north into northwest Ontario during the day, a secondary weak frontal wave over the central Great Plains will move east towards the WI/IA/IL vicinity. Southerly low-level flow will transport increasingly moist air and a destabilizing airmass northward into the southwest Great Lakes/mid MS Valley. The latest model guidance varies some on the latitudinal extent of an appreciably unstable warm sector (south-central WI vs. WI/IL border). Relatively cool 500-mb temperatures (-17 deg C) with surface temperatures warming into the 60s to low-mid 70s with dewpoint into the 50s, indicate 500-1500 J/kg MLCAPE possible during the afternoon/early evening the southeastern fringe of stronger southwesterlies. It remains unclear whether storms will preferentially develop on the front or whether a mix of frontal and warm sector storms will develop. If storms manage to initiate away from the front (uncertain but possible at this point based on the latest guidance), an isolated supercell threat with accompanying hazards may develop over the WI/northern IL vicinity. Additional storm development is likely during the evening along the front with this activity diminishing in intensity as it moves into IN during the overnight. ...Southern Plains into the lower MS Valley... A mid-level disturbance, embedded within the southern stream of strong westerly flow across the southern U.S., is forecast to move from northern Mexico and across TX and into the lower MS Valley during the period. Aside from this mid-level feature, forcing will remain somewhat nebulous/weak within a gradually moistening environment over the southern Great Plains into the lower MS Valley. A dryline over the Edwards Plateau into north TX may focus a few widely spaced thunderstorms during the late afternoon/early evening. Relatively cool mid-level profiles atop a warm boundary layer will result in steep lapse rates. Strong high-level westerly flow will probably aid in some storm organization with large hail a possibility with any robust/sustained storm. A more moist/weaker instability regime will focus over the lower MS Valley. Some of the stronger storms will potentially be capable of a large hail/damaging wind threat. Some of the stronger storm activity could linger into the evening hours before gradually diminishing. ..Smith.. 03/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1132 AM CST Sun Mar 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS INTO THE LOWER AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible Monday through Monday night from parts of central Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley, as well as the Ozarks into the Midwest. Large hail should be the main threat, but occasional strong/gusty winds may also occur. ...WI and mid MS Valley... A belt of strong southwesterly mid-level flow will extend through the base of a larger-scale trough situated over the north-central U.S. on Monday. Although an occluded surface low will migrate north into northwest Ontario during the day, a secondary weak frontal wave over the central Great Plains will move east towards the WI/IA/IL vicinity. Southerly low-level flow will transport increasingly moist air and a destabilizing airmass northward into the southwest Great Lakes/mid MS Valley. The latest model guidance varies some on the latitudinal extent of an appreciably unstable warm sector (south-central WI vs. WI/IL border). Relatively cool 500-mb temperatures (-17 deg C) with surface temperatures warming into the 60s to low-mid 70s with dewpoint into the 50s, indicate 500-1500 J/kg MLCAPE possible during the afternoon/early evening the southeastern fringe of stronger southwesterlies. It remains unclear whether storms will preferentially develop on the front or whether a mix of frontal and warm sector storms will develop. If storms manage to initiate away from the front (uncertain but possible at this point based on the latest guidance), an isolated supercell threat with accompanying hazards may develop over the WI/northern IL vicinity. Additional storm development is likely during the evening along the front with this activity diminishing in intensity as it moves into IN during the overnight. ...Southern Plains into the lower MS Valley... A mid-level disturbance, embedded within the southern stream of strong westerly flow across the southern U.S., is forecast to move from northern Mexico and across TX and into the lower MS Valley during the period. Aside from this mid-level feature, forcing will remain somewhat nebulous/weak within a gradually moistening environment over the southern Great Plains into the lower MS Valley. A dryline over the Edwards Plateau into north TX may focus a few widely spaced thunderstorms during the late afternoon/early evening. Relatively cool mid-level profiles atop a warm boundary layer will result in steep lapse rates. Strong high-level westerly flow will probably aid in some storm organization with large hail a possibility with any robust/sustained storm. A more moist/weaker instability regime will focus over the lower MS Valley. Some of the stronger storms will potentially be capable of a large hail/damaging wind threat. Some of the stronger storm activity could linger into the evening hours before gradually diminishing. ..Smith.. 03/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1132 AM CST Sun Mar 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS INTO THE LOWER AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible Monday through Monday night from parts of central Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley, as well as the Ozarks into the Midwest. Large hail should be the main threat, but occasional strong/gusty winds may also occur. ...WI and mid MS Valley... A belt of strong southwesterly mid-level flow will extend through the base of a larger-scale trough situated over the north-central U.S. on Monday. Although an occluded surface low will migrate north into northwest Ontario during the day, a secondary weak frontal wave over the central Great Plains will move east towards the WI/IA/IL vicinity. Southerly low-level flow will transport increasingly moist air and a destabilizing airmass northward into the southwest Great Lakes/mid MS Valley. The latest model guidance varies some on the latitudinal extent of an appreciably unstable warm sector (south-central WI vs. WI/IL border). Relatively cool 500-mb temperatures (-17 deg C) with surface temperatures warming into the 60s to low-mid 70s with dewpoint into the 50s, indicate 500-1500 J/kg MLCAPE possible during the afternoon/early evening the southeastern fringe of stronger southwesterlies. It remains unclear whether storms will preferentially develop on the front or whether a mix of frontal and warm sector storms will develop. If storms manage to initiate away from the front (uncertain but possible at this point based on the latest guidance), an isolated supercell threat with accompanying hazards may develop over the WI/northern IL vicinity. Additional storm development is likely during the evening along the front with this activity diminishing in intensity as it moves into IN during the overnight. ...Southern Plains into the lower MS Valley... A mid-level disturbance, embedded within the southern stream of strong westerly flow across the southern U.S., is forecast to move from northern Mexico and across TX and into the lower MS Valley during the period. Aside from this mid-level feature, forcing will remain somewhat nebulous/weak within a gradually moistening environment over the southern Great Plains into the lower MS Valley. A dryline over the Edwards Plateau into north TX may focus a few widely spaced thunderstorms during the late afternoon/early evening. Relatively cool mid-level profiles atop a warm boundary layer will result in steep lapse rates. Strong high-level westerly flow will probably aid in some storm organization with large hail a possibility with any robust/sustained storm. A more moist/weaker instability regime will focus over the lower MS Valley. Some of the stronger storms will potentially be capable of a large hail/damaging wind threat. Some of the stronger storm activity could linger into the evening hours before gradually diminishing. ..Smith.. 03/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1132 AM CST Sun Mar 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS INTO THE LOWER AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible Monday through Monday night from parts of central Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley, as well as the Ozarks into the Midwest. Large hail should be the main threat, but occasional strong/gusty winds may also occur. ...WI and mid MS Valley... A belt of strong southwesterly mid-level flow will extend through the base of a larger-scale trough situated over the north-central U.S. on Monday. Although an occluded surface low will migrate north into northwest Ontario during the day, a secondary weak frontal wave over the central Great Plains will move east towards the WI/IA/IL vicinity. Southerly low-level flow will transport increasingly moist air and a destabilizing airmass northward into the southwest Great Lakes/mid MS Valley. The latest model guidance varies some on the latitudinal extent of an appreciably unstable warm sector (south-central WI vs. WI/IL border). Relatively cool 500-mb temperatures (-17 deg C) with surface temperatures warming into the 60s to low-mid 70s with dewpoint into the 50s, indicate 500-1500 J/kg MLCAPE possible during the afternoon/early evening the southeastern fringe of stronger southwesterlies. It remains unclear whether storms will preferentially develop on the front or whether a mix of frontal and warm sector storms will develop. If storms manage to initiate away from the front (uncertain but possible at this point based on the latest guidance), an isolated supercell threat with accompanying hazards may develop over the WI/northern IL vicinity. Additional storm development is likely during the evening along the front with this activity diminishing in intensity as it moves into IN during the overnight. ...Southern Plains into the lower MS Valley... A mid-level disturbance, embedded within the southern stream of strong westerly flow across the southern U.S., is forecast to move from northern Mexico and across TX and into the lower MS Valley during the period. Aside from this mid-level feature, forcing will remain somewhat nebulous/weak within a gradually moistening environment over the southern Great Plains into the lower MS Valley. A dryline over the Edwards Plateau into north TX may focus a few widely spaced thunderstorms during the late afternoon/early evening. Relatively cool mid-level profiles atop a warm boundary layer will result in steep lapse rates. Strong high-level westerly flow will probably aid in some storm organization with large hail a possibility with any robust/sustained storm. A more moist/weaker instability regime will focus over the lower MS Valley. Some of the stronger storms will potentially be capable of a large hail/damaging wind threat. Some of the stronger storm activity could linger into the evening hours before gradually diminishing. ..Smith.. 03/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1132 AM CST Sun Mar 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS INTO THE LOWER AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible Monday through Monday night from parts of central Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley, as well as the Ozarks into the Midwest. Large hail should be the main threat, but occasional strong/gusty winds may also occur. ...WI and mid MS Valley... A belt of strong southwesterly mid-level flow will extend through the base of a larger-scale trough situated over the north-central U.S. on Monday. Although an occluded surface low will migrate north into northwest Ontario during the day, a secondary weak frontal wave over the central Great Plains will move east towards the WI/IA/IL vicinity. Southerly low-level flow will transport increasingly moist air and a destabilizing airmass northward into the southwest Great Lakes/mid MS Valley. The latest model guidance varies some on the latitudinal extent of an appreciably unstable warm sector (south-central WI vs. WI/IL border). Relatively cool 500-mb temperatures (-17 deg C) with surface temperatures warming into the 60s to low-mid 70s with dewpoint into the 50s, indicate 500-1500 J/kg MLCAPE possible during the afternoon/early evening the southeastern fringe of stronger southwesterlies. It remains unclear whether storms will preferentially develop on the front or whether a mix of frontal and warm sector storms will develop. If storms manage to initiate away from the front (uncertain but possible at this point based on the latest guidance), an isolated supercell threat with accompanying hazards may develop over the WI/northern IL vicinity. Additional storm development is likely during the evening along the front with this activity diminishing in intensity as it moves into IN during the overnight. ...Southern Plains into the lower MS Valley... A mid-level disturbance, embedded within the southern stream of strong westerly flow across the southern U.S., is forecast to move from northern Mexico and across TX and into the lower MS Valley during the period. Aside from this mid-level feature, forcing will remain somewhat nebulous/weak within a gradually moistening environment over the southern Great Plains into the lower MS Valley. A dryline over the Edwards Plateau into north TX may focus a few widely spaced thunderstorms during the late afternoon/early evening. Relatively cool mid-level profiles atop a warm boundary layer will result in steep lapse rates. Strong high-level westerly flow will probably aid in some storm organization with large hail a possibility with any robust/sustained storm. A more moist/weaker instability regime will focus over the lower MS Valley. Some of the stronger storms will potentially be capable of a large hail/damaging wind threat. Some of the stronger storm activity could linger into the evening hours before gradually diminishing. ..Smith.. 03/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1132 AM CST Sun Mar 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS INTO THE LOWER AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible Monday through Monday night from parts of central Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley, as well as the Ozarks into the Midwest. Large hail should be the main threat, but occasional strong/gusty winds may also occur. ...WI and mid MS Valley... A belt of strong southwesterly mid-level flow will extend through the base of a larger-scale trough situated over the north-central U.S. on Monday. Although an occluded surface low will migrate north into northwest Ontario during the day, a secondary weak frontal wave over the central Great Plains will move east towards the WI/IA/IL vicinity. Southerly low-level flow will transport increasingly moist air and a destabilizing airmass northward into the southwest Great Lakes/mid MS Valley. The latest model guidance varies some on the latitudinal extent of an appreciably unstable warm sector (south-central WI vs. WI/IL border). Relatively cool 500-mb temperatures (-17 deg C) with surface temperatures warming into the 60s to low-mid 70s with dewpoint into the 50s, indicate 500-1500 J/kg MLCAPE possible during the afternoon/early evening the southeastern fringe of stronger southwesterlies. It remains unclear whether storms will preferentially develop on the front or whether a mix of frontal and warm sector storms will develop. If storms manage to initiate away from the front (uncertain but possible at this point based on the latest guidance), an isolated supercell threat with accompanying hazards may develop over the WI/northern IL vicinity. Additional storm development is likely during the evening along the front with this activity diminishing in intensity as it moves into IN during the overnight. ...Southern Plains into the lower MS Valley... A mid-level disturbance, embedded within the southern stream of strong westerly flow across the southern U.S., is forecast to move from northern Mexico and across TX and into the lower MS Valley during the period. Aside from this mid-level feature, forcing will remain somewhat nebulous/weak within a gradually moistening environment over the southern Great Plains into the lower MS Valley. A dryline over the Edwards Plateau into north TX may focus a few widely spaced thunderstorms during the late afternoon/early evening. Relatively cool mid-level profiles atop a warm boundary layer will result in steep lapse rates. Strong high-level westerly flow will probably aid in some storm organization with large hail a possibility with any robust/sustained storm. A more moist/weaker instability regime will focus over the lower MS Valley. Some of the stronger storms will potentially be capable of a large hail/damaging wind threat. Some of the stronger storm activity could linger into the evening hours before gradually diminishing. ..Smith.. 03/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1132 AM CST Sun Mar 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS INTO THE LOWER AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible Monday through Monday night from parts of central Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley, as well as the Ozarks into the Midwest. Large hail should be the main threat, but occasional strong/gusty winds may also occur. ...WI and mid MS Valley... A belt of strong southwesterly mid-level flow will extend through the base of a larger-scale trough situated over the north-central U.S. on Monday. Although an occluded surface low will migrate north into northwest Ontario during the day, a secondary weak frontal wave over the central Great Plains will move east towards the WI/IA/IL vicinity. Southerly low-level flow will transport increasingly moist air and a destabilizing airmass northward into the southwest Great Lakes/mid MS Valley. The latest model guidance varies some on the latitudinal extent of an appreciably unstable warm sector (south-central WI vs. WI/IL border). Relatively cool 500-mb temperatures (-17 deg C) with surface temperatures warming into the 60s to low-mid 70s with dewpoint into the 50s, indicate 500-1500 J/kg MLCAPE possible during the afternoon/early evening the southeastern fringe of stronger southwesterlies. It remains unclear whether storms will preferentially develop on the front or whether a mix of frontal and warm sector storms will develop. If storms manage to initiate away from the front (uncertain but possible at this point based on the latest guidance), an isolated supercell threat with accompanying hazards may develop over the WI/northern IL vicinity. Additional storm development is likely during the evening along the front with this activity diminishing in intensity as it moves into IN during the overnight. ...Southern Plains into the lower MS Valley... A mid-level disturbance, embedded within the southern stream of strong westerly flow across the southern U.S., is forecast to move from northern Mexico and across TX and into the lower MS Valley during the period. Aside from this mid-level feature, forcing will remain somewhat nebulous/weak within a gradually moistening environment over the southern Great Plains into the lower MS Valley. A dryline over the Edwards Plateau into north TX may focus a few widely spaced thunderstorms during the late afternoon/early evening. Relatively cool mid-level profiles atop a warm boundary layer will result in steep lapse rates. Strong high-level westerly flow will probably aid in some storm organization with large hail a possibility with any robust/sustained storm. A more moist/weaker instability regime will focus over the lower MS Valley. Some of the stronger storms will potentially be capable of a large hail/damaging wind threat. Some of the stronger storm activity could linger into the evening hours before gradually diminishing. ..Smith.. 03/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1010 AM CST Sun Mar 03 2024 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER MUCH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... A few strong thunderstorms will be possible across parts of Florida this afternoon and early evening. Isolated hail is expected to be the primary threat, though locally gusty winds may also occur. ...FL... Morning water vapor loop shows a southern-stream shortwave trough moving across the eastern Gulf of Mexico into FL. Warm and moist low-level conditions are in place across FL today, with sufficient insolation to lead to afternoon temperatures well into the 80sF. A combination of weak large-scale ascent and convergence along sea-breeze boundaries will result in scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Forecast soundings show MLCAPE values around 1500 J/kg and weak wind fields in the lower 3 km, but 30+ westerly knot flow above 5km. This should support a few storms becoming organized multicells or transient supercells - capable of hail and gusty winds. At this time, coverage of the stronger cells appears limited so will maintain the ongoing MRGL risk. ..Hart/Moore.. 03/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1010 AM CST Sun Mar 03 2024 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER MUCH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... A few strong thunderstorms will be possible across parts of Florida this afternoon and early evening. Isolated hail is expected to be the primary threat, though locally gusty winds may also occur. ...FL... Morning water vapor loop shows a southern-stream shortwave trough moving across the eastern Gulf of Mexico into FL. Warm and moist low-level conditions are in place across FL today, with sufficient insolation to lead to afternoon temperatures well into the 80sF. A combination of weak large-scale ascent and convergence along sea-breeze boundaries will result in scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Forecast soundings show MLCAPE values around 1500 J/kg and weak wind fields in the lower 3 km, but 30+ westerly knot flow above 5km. This should support a few storms becoming organized multicells or transient supercells - capable of hail and gusty winds. At this time, coverage of the stronger cells appears limited so will maintain the ongoing MRGL risk. ..Hart/Moore.. 03/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1010 AM CST Sun Mar 03 2024 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER MUCH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... A few strong thunderstorms will be possible across parts of Florida this afternoon and early evening. Isolated hail is expected to be the primary threat, though locally gusty winds may also occur. ...FL... Morning water vapor loop shows a southern-stream shortwave trough moving across the eastern Gulf of Mexico into FL. Warm and moist low-level conditions are in place across FL today, with sufficient insolation to lead to afternoon temperatures well into the 80sF. A combination of weak large-scale ascent and convergence along sea-breeze boundaries will result in scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Forecast soundings show MLCAPE values around 1500 J/kg and weak wind fields in the lower 3 km, but 30+ westerly knot flow above 5km. This should support a few storms becoming organized multicells or transient supercells - capable of hail and gusty winds. At this time, coverage of the stronger cells appears limited so will maintain the ongoing MRGL risk. ..Hart/Moore.. 03/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1010 AM CST Sun Mar 03 2024 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER MUCH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... A few strong thunderstorms will be possible across parts of Florida this afternoon and early evening. Isolated hail is expected to be the primary threat, though locally gusty winds may also occur. ...FL... Morning water vapor loop shows a southern-stream shortwave trough moving across the eastern Gulf of Mexico into FL. Warm and moist low-level conditions are in place across FL today, with sufficient insolation to lead to afternoon temperatures well into the 80sF. A combination of weak large-scale ascent and convergence along sea-breeze boundaries will result in scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Forecast soundings show MLCAPE values around 1500 J/kg and weak wind fields in the lower 3 km, but 30+ westerly knot flow above 5km. This should support a few storms becoming organized multicells or transient supercells - capable of hail and gusty winds. At this time, coverage of the stronger cells appears limited so will maintain the ongoing MRGL risk. ..Hart/Moore.. 03/03/2024 Read more