Severe Storms

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1010 AM CST Sun Mar 03 2024 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER MUCH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... A few strong thunderstorms will be possible across parts of Florida this afternoon and early evening. Isolated hail is expected to be the primary threat, though locally gusty winds may also occur. ...FL... Morning water vapor loop shows a southern-stream shortwave trough moving across the eastern Gulf of Mexico into FL. Warm and moist low-level conditions are in place across FL today, with sufficient insolation to lead to afternoon temperatures well into the 80sF. A combination of weak large-scale ascent and convergence along sea-breeze boundaries will result in scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Forecast soundings show MLCAPE values around 1500 J/kg and weak wind fields in the lower 3 km, but 30+ westerly knot flow above 5km. This should support a few storms becoming organized multicells or transient supercells - capable of hail and gusty winds. At this time, coverage of the stronger cells appears limited so will maintain the ongoing MRGL risk. ..Hart/Moore.. 03/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1010 AM CST Sun Mar 03 2024 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER MUCH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... A few strong thunderstorms will be possible across parts of Florida this afternoon and early evening. Isolated hail is expected to be the primary threat, though locally gusty winds may also occur. ...FL... Morning water vapor loop shows a southern-stream shortwave trough moving across the eastern Gulf of Mexico into FL. Warm and moist low-level conditions are in place across FL today, with sufficient insolation to lead to afternoon temperatures well into the 80sF. A combination of weak large-scale ascent and convergence along sea-breeze boundaries will result in scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Forecast soundings show MLCAPE values around 1500 J/kg and weak wind fields in the lower 3 km, but 30+ westerly knot flow above 5km. This should support a few storms becoming organized multicells or transient supercells - capable of hail and gusty winds. At this time, coverage of the stronger cells appears limited so will maintain the ongoing MRGL risk. ..Hart/Moore.. 03/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1010 AM CST Sun Mar 03 2024 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER MUCH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... A few strong thunderstorms will be possible across parts of Florida this afternoon and early evening. Isolated hail is expected to be the primary threat, though locally gusty winds may also occur. ...FL... Morning water vapor loop shows a southern-stream shortwave trough moving across the eastern Gulf of Mexico into FL. Warm and moist low-level conditions are in place across FL today, with sufficient insolation to lead to afternoon temperatures well into the 80sF. A combination of weak large-scale ascent and convergence along sea-breeze boundaries will result in scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Forecast soundings show MLCAPE values around 1500 J/kg and weak wind fields in the lower 3 km, but 30+ westerly knot flow above 5km. This should support a few storms becoming organized multicells or transient supercells - capable of hail and gusty winds. At this time, coverage of the stronger cells appears limited so will maintain the ongoing MRGL risk. ..Hart/Moore.. 03/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1010 AM CST Sun Mar 03 2024 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER MUCH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... A few strong thunderstorms will be possible across parts of Florida this afternoon and early evening. Isolated hail is expected to be the primary threat, though locally gusty winds may also occur. ...FL... Morning water vapor loop shows a southern-stream shortwave trough moving across the eastern Gulf of Mexico into FL. Warm and moist low-level conditions are in place across FL today, with sufficient insolation to lead to afternoon temperatures well into the 80sF. A combination of weak large-scale ascent and convergence along sea-breeze boundaries will result in scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Forecast soundings show MLCAPE values around 1500 J/kg and weak wind fields in the lower 3 km, but 30+ westerly knot flow above 5km. This should support a few storms becoming organized multicells or transient supercells - capable of hail and gusty winds. At this time, coverage of the stronger cells appears limited so will maintain the ongoing MRGL risk. ..Hart/Moore.. 03/03/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0935 AM CST Sun Mar 03 2024 Valid 031700Z - 041200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL INTO SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... The primary change made to the Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook Update was to expand Elevated highlights northeastward into portions of the Upper Mississippi Valley. Here, 25 mph sustained southerly winds (with higher gusts) will overspread dry fuels for several hours this afternoon and early evening. Though RH may only drop into the 35-45 percent range in spots, the very strong winds and dry fuels (driven by a lack of recent rainfall and longer term drought) should compensate to support some potential for rapid wildfire spread. Otherwise, the rest of the forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 03/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0147 AM CST Sun Mar 03 2024/ ...Synopsis... A belt of strong west-southwesterly midlevel flow will persist across the Rockies and adjacent Plains, while an embedded shortwave trough and attendant surface cyclone lift northeastward across the northern Plains. At the same time, the core of the strongest flow aloft will overspread the central Rockies, encouraging secondary/lee cyclogenesis over eastern CO into western KS. In response to these developments, a tight surface pressure gradient will develop across much of the Great Plains into the Mid/Upper MS Valley, where seasonably warm, dry, and windy conditions will favor widespread elevated to critical fire-weather conditions. ...Southern High Plains... Along/south of the deepening lee cyclone over the central High Plains, 20-25 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (higher along the I-25 corridor) will develop across much of the southern High Plains in response to the tightening surface pressure gradient. In addition, deep boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft will support gusts upwards of 30-40 mph over the Plains, and 50-60 mph gusts along the higher terrain/I-25 corridor. These strong/gusty surface winds, coupled with 10-15 percent minimum RH (aided by the strong downsloping), will yield critical fire-weather conditions given dry fuels across the region. While a slight minimum in sustained surface winds is possible over the TX South Plains (owing to terrain influences), breezy/gusty winds amid single-digit RH should still support near-critical to critical conditions. For the northern Plains, the strongest westerly surface winds will generally remain to the north of the lowest RH (where cooler surface temperatures are expected). However, high-end elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are still expected given 25 mph sustained westerly surface winds (with higher gusts). Similarly, 20-25 mph sustained south-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) will develop across the Mid/Upper MS Valley -- along the eastern periphery of the lowest RH. Despite the slightly higher RH here, high-end elevated to near-critical fire-weather conditions are still expected owing to the strong/gusty surface winds atop increasingly receptive fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0935 AM CST Sun Mar 03 2024 Valid 031700Z - 041200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL INTO SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... The primary change made to the Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook Update was to expand Elevated highlights northeastward into portions of the Upper Mississippi Valley. Here, 25 mph sustained southerly winds (with higher gusts) will overspread dry fuels for several hours this afternoon and early evening. Though RH may only drop into the 35-45 percent range in spots, the very strong winds and dry fuels (driven by a lack of recent rainfall and longer term drought) should compensate to support some potential for rapid wildfire spread. Otherwise, the rest of the forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 03/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0147 AM CST Sun Mar 03 2024/ ...Synopsis... A belt of strong west-southwesterly midlevel flow will persist across the Rockies and adjacent Plains, while an embedded shortwave trough and attendant surface cyclone lift northeastward across the northern Plains. At the same time, the core of the strongest flow aloft will overspread the central Rockies, encouraging secondary/lee cyclogenesis over eastern CO into western KS. In response to these developments, a tight surface pressure gradient will develop across much of the Great Plains into the Mid/Upper MS Valley, where seasonably warm, dry, and windy conditions will favor widespread elevated to critical fire-weather conditions. ...Southern High Plains... Along/south of the deepening lee cyclone over the central High Plains, 20-25 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (higher along the I-25 corridor) will develop across much of the southern High Plains in response to the tightening surface pressure gradient. In addition, deep boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft will support gusts upwards of 30-40 mph over the Plains, and 50-60 mph gusts along the higher terrain/I-25 corridor. These strong/gusty surface winds, coupled with 10-15 percent minimum RH (aided by the strong downsloping), will yield critical fire-weather conditions given dry fuels across the region. While a slight minimum in sustained surface winds is possible over the TX South Plains (owing to terrain influences), breezy/gusty winds amid single-digit RH should still support near-critical to critical conditions. For the northern Plains, the strongest westerly surface winds will generally remain to the north of the lowest RH (where cooler surface temperatures are expected). However, high-end elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are still expected given 25 mph sustained westerly surface winds (with higher gusts). Similarly, 20-25 mph sustained south-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) will develop across the Mid/Upper MS Valley -- along the eastern periphery of the lowest RH. Despite the slightly higher RH here, high-end elevated to near-critical fire-weather conditions are still expected owing to the strong/gusty surface winds atop increasingly receptive fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0935 AM CST Sun Mar 03 2024 Valid 031700Z - 041200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL INTO SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... The primary change made to the Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook Update was to expand Elevated highlights northeastward into portions of the Upper Mississippi Valley. Here, 25 mph sustained southerly winds (with higher gusts) will overspread dry fuels for several hours this afternoon and early evening. Though RH may only drop into the 35-45 percent range in spots, the very strong winds and dry fuels (driven by a lack of recent rainfall and longer term drought) should compensate to support some potential for rapid wildfire spread. Otherwise, the rest of the forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 03/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0147 AM CST Sun Mar 03 2024/ ...Synopsis... A belt of strong west-southwesterly midlevel flow will persist across the Rockies and adjacent Plains, while an embedded shortwave trough and attendant surface cyclone lift northeastward across the northern Plains. At the same time, the core of the strongest flow aloft will overspread the central Rockies, encouraging secondary/lee cyclogenesis over eastern CO into western KS. In response to these developments, a tight surface pressure gradient will develop across much of the Great Plains into the Mid/Upper MS Valley, where seasonably warm, dry, and windy conditions will favor widespread elevated to critical fire-weather conditions. ...Southern High Plains... Along/south of the deepening lee cyclone over the central High Plains, 20-25 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (higher along the I-25 corridor) will develop across much of the southern High Plains in response to the tightening surface pressure gradient. In addition, deep boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft will support gusts upwards of 30-40 mph over the Plains, and 50-60 mph gusts along the higher terrain/I-25 corridor. These strong/gusty surface winds, coupled with 10-15 percent minimum RH (aided by the strong downsloping), will yield critical fire-weather conditions given dry fuels across the region. While a slight minimum in sustained surface winds is possible over the TX South Plains (owing to terrain influences), breezy/gusty winds amid single-digit RH should still support near-critical to critical conditions. For the northern Plains, the strongest westerly surface winds will generally remain to the north of the lowest RH (where cooler surface temperatures are expected). However, high-end elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are still expected given 25 mph sustained westerly surface winds (with higher gusts). Similarly, 20-25 mph sustained south-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) will develop across the Mid/Upper MS Valley -- along the eastern periphery of the lowest RH. Despite the slightly higher RH here, high-end elevated to near-critical fire-weather conditions are still expected owing to the strong/gusty surface winds atop increasingly receptive fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0935 AM CST Sun Mar 03 2024 Valid 031700Z - 041200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL INTO SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... The primary change made to the Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook Update was to expand Elevated highlights northeastward into portions of the Upper Mississippi Valley. Here, 25 mph sustained southerly winds (with higher gusts) will overspread dry fuels for several hours this afternoon and early evening. Though RH may only drop into the 35-45 percent range in spots, the very strong winds and dry fuels (driven by a lack of recent rainfall and longer term drought) should compensate to support some potential for rapid wildfire spread. Otherwise, the rest of the forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 03/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0147 AM CST Sun Mar 03 2024/ ...Synopsis... A belt of strong west-southwesterly midlevel flow will persist across the Rockies and adjacent Plains, while an embedded shortwave trough and attendant surface cyclone lift northeastward across the northern Plains. At the same time, the core of the strongest flow aloft will overspread the central Rockies, encouraging secondary/lee cyclogenesis over eastern CO into western KS. In response to these developments, a tight surface pressure gradient will develop across much of the Great Plains into the Mid/Upper MS Valley, where seasonably warm, dry, and windy conditions will favor widespread elevated to critical fire-weather conditions. ...Southern High Plains... Along/south of the deepening lee cyclone over the central High Plains, 20-25 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (higher along the I-25 corridor) will develop across much of the southern High Plains in response to the tightening surface pressure gradient. In addition, deep boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft will support gusts upwards of 30-40 mph over the Plains, and 50-60 mph gusts along the higher terrain/I-25 corridor. These strong/gusty surface winds, coupled with 10-15 percent minimum RH (aided by the strong downsloping), will yield critical fire-weather conditions given dry fuels across the region. While a slight minimum in sustained surface winds is possible over the TX South Plains (owing to terrain influences), breezy/gusty winds amid single-digit RH should still support near-critical to critical conditions. For the northern Plains, the strongest westerly surface winds will generally remain to the north of the lowest RH (where cooler surface temperatures are expected). However, high-end elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are still expected given 25 mph sustained westerly surface winds (with higher gusts). Similarly, 20-25 mph sustained south-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) will develop across the Mid/Upper MS Valley -- along the eastern periphery of the lowest RH. Despite the slightly higher RH here, high-end elevated to near-critical fire-weather conditions are still expected owing to the strong/gusty surface winds atop increasingly receptive fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0935 AM CST Sun Mar 03 2024 Valid 031700Z - 041200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL INTO SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... The primary change made to the Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook Update was to expand Elevated highlights northeastward into portions of the Upper Mississippi Valley. Here, 25 mph sustained southerly winds (with higher gusts) will overspread dry fuels for several hours this afternoon and early evening. Though RH may only drop into the 35-45 percent range in spots, the very strong winds and dry fuels (driven by a lack of recent rainfall and longer term drought) should compensate to support some potential for rapid wildfire spread. Otherwise, the rest of the forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 03/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0147 AM CST Sun Mar 03 2024/ ...Synopsis... A belt of strong west-southwesterly midlevel flow will persist across the Rockies and adjacent Plains, while an embedded shortwave trough and attendant surface cyclone lift northeastward across the northern Plains. At the same time, the core of the strongest flow aloft will overspread the central Rockies, encouraging secondary/lee cyclogenesis over eastern CO into western KS. In response to these developments, a tight surface pressure gradient will develop across much of the Great Plains into the Mid/Upper MS Valley, where seasonably warm, dry, and windy conditions will favor widespread elevated to critical fire-weather conditions. ...Southern High Plains... Along/south of the deepening lee cyclone over the central High Plains, 20-25 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (higher along the I-25 corridor) will develop across much of the southern High Plains in response to the tightening surface pressure gradient. In addition, deep boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft will support gusts upwards of 30-40 mph over the Plains, and 50-60 mph gusts along the higher terrain/I-25 corridor. These strong/gusty surface winds, coupled with 10-15 percent minimum RH (aided by the strong downsloping), will yield critical fire-weather conditions given dry fuels across the region. While a slight minimum in sustained surface winds is possible over the TX South Plains (owing to terrain influences), breezy/gusty winds amid single-digit RH should still support near-critical to critical conditions. For the northern Plains, the strongest westerly surface winds will generally remain to the north of the lowest RH (where cooler surface temperatures are expected). However, high-end elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are still expected given 25 mph sustained westerly surface winds (with higher gusts). Similarly, 20-25 mph sustained south-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) will develop across the Mid/Upper MS Valley -- along the eastern periphery of the lowest RH. Despite the slightly higher RH here, high-end elevated to near-critical fire-weather conditions are still expected owing to the strong/gusty surface winds atop increasingly receptive fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0935 AM CST Sun Mar 03 2024 Valid 031700Z - 041200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL INTO SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... The primary change made to the Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook Update was to expand Elevated highlights northeastward into portions of the Upper Mississippi Valley. Here, 25 mph sustained southerly winds (with higher gusts) will overspread dry fuels for several hours this afternoon and early evening. Though RH may only drop into the 35-45 percent range in spots, the very strong winds and dry fuels (driven by a lack of recent rainfall and longer term drought) should compensate to support some potential for rapid wildfire spread. Otherwise, the rest of the forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 03/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0147 AM CST Sun Mar 03 2024/ ...Synopsis... A belt of strong west-southwesterly midlevel flow will persist across the Rockies and adjacent Plains, while an embedded shortwave trough and attendant surface cyclone lift northeastward across the northern Plains. At the same time, the core of the strongest flow aloft will overspread the central Rockies, encouraging secondary/lee cyclogenesis over eastern CO into western KS. In response to these developments, a tight surface pressure gradient will develop across much of the Great Plains into the Mid/Upper MS Valley, where seasonably warm, dry, and windy conditions will favor widespread elevated to critical fire-weather conditions. ...Southern High Plains... Along/south of the deepening lee cyclone over the central High Plains, 20-25 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (higher along the I-25 corridor) will develop across much of the southern High Plains in response to the tightening surface pressure gradient. In addition, deep boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft will support gusts upwards of 30-40 mph over the Plains, and 50-60 mph gusts along the higher terrain/I-25 corridor. These strong/gusty surface winds, coupled with 10-15 percent minimum RH (aided by the strong downsloping), will yield critical fire-weather conditions given dry fuels across the region. While a slight minimum in sustained surface winds is possible over the TX South Plains (owing to terrain influences), breezy/gusty winds amid single-digit RH should still support near-critical to critical conditions. For the northern Plains, the strongest westerly surface winds will generally remain to the north of the lowest RH (where cooler surface temperatures are expected). However, high-end elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are still expected given 25 mph sustained westerly surface winds (with higher gusts). Similarly, 20-25 mph sustained south-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) will develop across the Mid/Upper MS Valley -- along the eastern periphery of the lowest RH. Despite the slightly higher RH here, high-end elevated to near-critical fire-weather conditions are still expected owing to the strong/gusty surface winds atop increasingly receptive fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0935 AM CST Sun Mar 03 2024 Valid 031700Z - 041200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL INTO SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... The primary change made to the Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook Update was to expand Elevated highlights northeastward into portions of the Upper Mississippi Valley. Here, 25 mph sustained southerly winds (with higher gusts) will overspread dry fuels for several hours this afternoon and early evening. Though RH may only drop into the 35-45 percent range in spots, the very strong winds and dry fuels (driven by a lack of recent rainfall and longer term drought) should compensate to support some potential for rapid wildfire spread. Otherwise, the rest of the forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 03/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0147 AM CST Sun Mar 03 2024/ ...Synopsis... A belt of strong west-southwesterly midlevel flow will persist across the Rockies and adjacent Plains, while an embedded shortwave trough and attendant surface cyclone lift northeastward across the northern Plains. At the same time, the core of the strongest flow aloft will overspread the central Rockies, encouraging secondary/lee cyclogenesis over eastern CO into western KS. In response to these developments, a tight surface pressure gradient will develop across much of the Great Plains into the Mid/Upper MS Valley, where seasonably warm, dry, and windy conditions will favor widespread elevated to critical fire-weather conditions. ...Southern High Plains... Along/south of the deepening lee cyclone over the central High Plains, 20-25 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (higher along the I-25 corridor) will develop across much of the southern High Plains in response to the tightening surface pressure gradient. In addition, deep boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft will support gusts upwards of 30-40 mph over the Plains, and 50-60 mph gusts along the higher terrain/I-25 corridor. These strong/gusty surface winds, coupled with 10-15 percent minimum RH (aided by the strong downsloping), will yield critical fire-weather conditions given dry fuels across the region. While a slight minimum in sustained surface winds is possible over the TX South Plains (owing to terrain influences), breezy/gusty winds amid single-digit RH should still support near-critical to critical conditions. For the northern Plains, the strongest westerly surface winds will generally remain to the north of the lowest RH (where cooler surface temperatures are expected). However, high-end elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are still expected given 25 mph sustained westerly surface winds (with higher gusts). Similarly, 20-25 mph sustained south-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) will develop across the Mid/Upper MS Valley -- along the eastern periphery of the lowest RH. Despite the slightly higher RH here, high-end elevated to near-critical fire-weather conditions are still expected owing to the strong/gusty surface winds atop increasingly receptive fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0659 AM CST Sun Mar 03 2024 Valid 031300Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... A few strong thunderstorms will be possible across parts of Florida during the afternoon and early evening. Isolated hail is expected to be the primary threat, though locally gusty winds may also occur. ...Synopsis... A broad area of cyclonic flow aloft will continue to envelop much of the western 2/3 of the country today, while ridging prevails over the East. The exception will be a weak southern-stream short-wave trough, that will shift across Florida today. At the surface, a baroclinic zone lying from the upper Mississippi Valley area southwestward across the central Plains, and then westward across the Intermountain West will make little progress today, while high pressure prevails in the East. ...Florida Peninsula... Thunderstorms are ongoing this morning across portions of the northern half of the Florida Peninsula, with additional/more widespread convection offshore. The convection is occurring near and south of a weak surface boundary, in tandem with the southern-stream short-wave trough that will continue to move slowly eastward across the Peninsula today. A moist airmass remains in place south of the northern Florida surface boundary. This, combined with relatively cool mid-levels associated with the short-wave trough, will allow 1000 to 1500 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE to evolve through this afternoon. Weak surface winds in the warm sector suggest inland penetration of both sea-breeze boundaries, which will support scattered thunderstorm development inland later today. While deep-layer shear will remain marginal for well-organized storms, hail will be possible with a stronger storm or two, aided by the cool air aloft. Storms should gradually diminish inland, this evening. ..Goss/Broyles.. 03/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0659 AM CST Sun Mar 03 2024 Valid 031300Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... A few strong thunderstorms will be possible across parts of Florida during the afternoon and early evening. Isolated hail is expected to be the primary threat, though locally gusty winds may also occur. ...Synopsis... A broad area of cyclonic flow aloft will continue to envelop much of the western 2/3 of the country today, while ridging prevails over the East. The exception will be a weak southern-stream short-wave trough, that will shift across Florida today. At the surface, a baroclinic zone lying from the upper Mississippi Valley area southwestward across the central Plains, and then westward across the Intermountain West will make little progress today, while high pressure prevails in the East. ...Florida Peninsula... Thunderstorms are ongoing this morning across portions of the northern half of the Florida Peninsula, with additional/more widespread convection offshore. The convection is occurring near and south of a weak surface boundary, in tandem with the southern-stream short-wave trough that will continue to move slowly eastward across the Peninsula today. A moist airmass remains in place south of the northern Florida surface boundary. This, combined with relatively cool mid-levels associated with the short-wave trough, will allow 1000 to 1500 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE to evolve through this afternoon. Weak surface winds in the warm sector suggest inland penetration of both sea-breeze boundaries, which will support scattered thunderstorm development inland later today. While deep-layer shear will remain marginal for well-organized storms, hail will be possible with a stronger storm or two, aided by the cool air aloft. Storms should gradually diminish inland, this evening. ..Goss/Broyles.. 03/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0659 AM CST Sun Mar 03 2024 Valid 031300Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... A few strong thunderstorms will be possible across parts of Florida during the afternoon and early evening. Isolated hail is expected to be the primary threat, though locally gusty winds may also occur. ...Synopsis... A broad area of cyclonic flow aloft will continue to envelop much of the western 2/3 of the country today, while ridging prevails over the East. The exception will be a weak southern-stream short-wave trough, that will shift across Florida today. At the surface, a baroclinic zone lying from the upper Mississippi Valley area southwestward across the central Plains, and then westward across the Intermountain West will make little progress today, while high pressure prevails in the East. ...Florida Peninsula... Thunderstorms are ongoing this morning across portions of the northern half of the Florida Peninsula, with additional/more widespread convection offshore. The convection is occurring near and south of a weak surface boundary, in tandem with the southern-stream short-wave trough that will continue to move slowly eastward across the Peninsula today. A moist airmass remains in place south of the northern Florida surface boundary. This, combined with relatively cool mid-levels associated with the short-wave trough, will allow 1000 to 1500 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE to evolve through this afternoon. Weak surface winds in the warm sector suggest inland penetration of both sea-breeze boundaries, which will support scattered thunderstorm development inland later today. While deep-layer shear will remain marginal for well-organized storms, hail will be possible with a stronger storm or two, aided by the cool air aloft. Storms should gradually diminish inland, this evening. ..Goss/Broyles.. 03/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0659 AM CST Sun Mar 03 2024 Valid 031300Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... A few strong thunderstorms will be possible across parts of Florida during the afternoon and early evening. Isolated hail is expected to be the primary threat, though locally gusty winds may also occur. ...Synopsis... A broad area of cyclonic flow aloft will continue to envelop much of the western 2/3 of the country today, while ridging prevails over the East. The exception will be a weak southern-stream short-wave trough, that will shift across Florida today. At the surface, a baroclinic zone lying from the upper Mississippi Valley area southwestward across the central Plains, and then westward across the Intermountain West will make little progress today, while high pressure prevails in the East. ...Florida Peninsula... Thunderstorms are ongoing this morning across portions of the northern half of the Florida Peninsula, with additional/more widespread convection offshore. The convection is occurring near and south of a weak surface boundary, in tandem with the southern-stream short-wave trough that will continue to move slowly eastward across the Peninsula today. A moist airmass remains in place south of the northern Florida surface boundary. This, combined with relatively cool mid-levels associated with the short-wave trough, will allow 1000 to 1500 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE to evolve through this afternoon. Weak surface winds in the warm sector suggest inland penetration of both sea-breeze boundaries, which will support scattered thunderstorm development inland later today. While deep-layer shear will remain marginal for well-organized storms, hail will be possible with a stronger storm or two, aided by the cool air aloft. Storms should gradually diminish inland, this evening. ..Goss/Broyles.. 03/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0659 AM CST Sun Mar 03 2024 Valid 031300Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... A few strong thunderstorms will be possible across parts of Florida during the afternoon and early evening. Isolated hail is expected to be the primary threat, though locally gusty winds may also occur. ...Synopsis... A broad area of cyclonic flow aloft will continue to envelop much of the western 2/3 of the country today, while ridging prevails over the East. The exception will be a weak southern-stream short-wave trough, that will shift across Florida today. At the surface, a baroclinic zone lying from the upper Mississippi Valley area southwestward across the central Plains, and then westward across the Intermountain West will make little progress today, while high pressure prevails in the East. ...Florida Peninsula... Thunderstorms are ongoing this morning across portions of the northern half of the Florida Peninsula, with additional/more widespread convection offshore. The convection is occurring near and south of a weak surface boundary, in tandem with the southern-stream short-wave trough that will continue to move slowly eastward across the Peninsula today. A moist airmass remains in place south of the northern Florida surface boundary. This, combined with relatively cool mid-levels associated with the short-wave trough, will allow 1000 to 1500 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE to evolve through this afternoon. Weak surface winds in the warm sector suggest inland penetration of both sea-breeze boundaries, which will support scattered thunderstorm development inland later today. While deep-layer shear will remain marginal for well-organized storms, hail will be possible with a stronger storm or two, aided by the cool air aloft. Storms should gradually diminish inland, this evening. ..Goss/Broyles.. 03/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0659 AM CST Sun Mar 03 2024 Valid 031300Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... A few strong thunderstorms will be possible across parts of Florida during the afternoon and early evening. Isolated hail is expected to be the primary threat, though locally gusty winds may also occur. ...Synopsis... A broad area of cyclonic flow aloft will continue to envelop much of the western 2/3 of the country today, while ridging prevails over the East. The exception will be a weak southern-stream short-wave trough, that will shift across Florida today. At the surface, a baroclinic zone lying from the upper Mississippi Valley area southwestward across the central Plains, and then westward across the Intermountain West will make little progress today, while high pressure prevails in the East. ...Florida Peninsula... Thunderstorms are ongoing this morning across portions of the northern half of the Florida Peninsula, with additional/more widespread convection offshore. The convection is occurring near and south of a weak surface boundary, in tandem with the southern-stream short-wave trough that will continue to move slowly eastward across the Peninsula today. A moist airmass remains in place south of the northern Florida surface boundary. This, combined with relatively cool mid-levels associated with the short-wave trough, will allow 1000 to 1500 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE to evolve through this afternoon. Weak surface winds in the warm sector suggest inland penetration of both sea-breeze boundaries, which will support scattered thunderstorm development inland later today. While deep-layer shear will remain marginal for well-organized storms, hail will be possible with a stronger storm or two, aided by the cool air aloft. Storms should gradually diminish inland, this evening. ..Goss/Broyles.. 03/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0659 AM CST Sun Mar 03 2024 Valid 031300Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... A few strong thunderstorms will be possible across parts of Florida during the afternoon and early evening. Isolated hail is expected to be the primary threat, though locally gusty winds may also occur. ...Synopsis... A broad area of cyclonic flow aloft will continue to envelop much of the western 2/3 of the country today, while ridging prevails over the East. The exception will be a weak southern-stream short-wave trough, that will shift across Florida today. At the surface, a baroclinic zone lying from the upper Mississippi Valley area southwestward across the central Plains, and then westward across the Intermountain West will make little progress today, while high pressure prevails in the East. ...Florida Peninsula... Thunderstorms are ongoing this morning across portions of the northern half of the Florida Peninsula, with additional/more widespread convection offshore. The convection is occurring near and south of a weak surface boundary, in tandem with the southern-stream short-wave trough that will continue to move slowly eastward across the Peninsula today. A moist airmass remains in place south of the northern Florida surface boundary. This, combined with relatively cool mid-levels associated with the short-wave trough, will allow 1000 to 1500 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE to evolve through this afternoon. Weak surface winds in the warm sector suggest inland penetration of both sea-breeze boundaries, which will support scattered thunderstorm development inland later today. While deep-layer shear will remain marginal for well-organized storms, hail will be possible with a stronger storm or two, aided by the cool air aloft. Storms should gradually diminish inland, this evening. ..Goss/Broyles.. 03/03/2024 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 AM CST Sun Mar 03 2024 Valid 061200Z - 111200Z ...DISCUSSION... An upper trough should move quickly eastward across FL and the East Coast up to the Mid-Atlantic on Day 4/Wednesday. While sufficient moisture to support thunderstorms will likely be in place to support thunderstorms across these areas, limited instability should tend to keep any severe threat fairly isolated/marginal. Attention then turns to another upper trough/low that is forecast to advance from the eastern Pacific across the Southwest and southern Plains from the middle to latter portion of the upcoming week. Lee cyclogenesis is expected to occur ahead of this feature across the southern High Plains, and corresponding low-level mass response should encourage low-level moisture to advance northward across parts of OK/TX into the lower MS Valley and Southeast. Severe potential may gradually increase across parts of OK/TX around Day 5/Thursday, as sufficient shear and instability should be present to support some risk for organized convection. This severe threat will probably continue into Day 6/Friday across parts of central/east TX into the lower MS Valley as the upper trough ejects eastward over these areas. By Day 7/Saturday, uncertainty increases regarding the evolution of the upper trough, as well as potential for convection to outpace the low-level moisture return and related warm sector. But, some severe threat may persist across parts of the Southeast ahead of an advancing cold front. While confidence is not high enough to include 15% severe areas for Thursday (OK/TX), Friday (southern Plains into lower MS Valley), and/or Saturday (Southeast) at this time, deterministic and ensemble model trends will be closely monitored for signs of increasing severe potential with this ejecting upper trough. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 AM CST Sun Mar 03 2024 Valid 061200Z - 111200Z ...DISCUSSION... An upper trough should move quickly eastward across FL and the East Coast up to the Mid-Atlantic on Day 4/Wednesday. While sufficient moisture to support thunderstorms will likely be in place to support thunderstorms across these areas, limited instability should tend to keep any severe threat fairly isolated/marginal. Attention then turns to another upper trough/low that is forecast to advance from the eastern Pacific across the Southwest and southern Plains from the middle to latter portion of the upcoming week. Lee cyclogenesis is expected to occur ahead of this feature across the southern High Plains, and corresponding low-level mass response should encourage low-level moisture to advance northward across parts of OK/TX into the lower MS Valley and Southeast. Severe potential may gradually increase across parts of OK/TX around Day 5/Thursday, as sufficient shear and instability should be present to support some risk for organized convection. This severe threat will probably continue into Day 6/Friday across parts of central/east TX into the lower MS Valley as the upper trough ejects eastward over these areas. By Day 7/Saturday, uncertainty increases regarding the evolution of the upper trough, as well as potential for convection to outpace the low-level moisture return and related warm sector. But, some severe threat may persist across parts of the Southeast ahead of an advancing cold front. While confidence is not high enough to include 15% severe areas for Thursday (OK/TX), Friday (southern Plains into lower MS Valley), and/or Saturday (Southeast) at this time, deterministic and ensemble model trends will be closely monitored for signs of increasing severe potential with this ejecting upper trough. Read more