Severe Storms

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CST Thu Feb 29 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Synopsis... A low-amplitude southern-stream shortwave trough is forecast to progress from the Mid/Lower MS Valley eastward/northeastward across the OH and TN Valleys on Friday. A relatively cool and dry continental air mass will be in place across the eastern CONUS ahead of this wave, with little low-level air mass modification anticipated throughout the day. Even so, moderate mid-level moisture will accompany the shortwave, contributing to enough elevated buoyancy to support thunderstorms. Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing over the Lower MS Valley early Friday morning, and are expected to gradually progress eastward in tandem with the shortwave throughout the day. Late afternoon development is also expected ahead of the shortwave in the eastern GA and SC vicinity, supported by persistent warm-air advection. There is low chance that the warm sector may move inland over portion of the SC coast. Poor lapse rates will limit buoyancy, but strong kinematics could support a strong storm or two. Overall probability of severe is currently expected to remain lower than thresholds needed to delineate any areas. Farther west, upper troughing is expected to continue deepening across the western CONUS, with strong westerlies/southwesterlies persisting from West Coast through the Great Basin and northern Rockies. This westerly/southwesterly flow will help maintain mid-level moisture across the region while temperature continue to cool aloft. Early Friday, overall thermodynamic conditions appear most favorable for isolated thunderstorms along the Pacific Northwest coast. Conditions are expected to become gradually more supportive further south into northern CA as temperatures continue to cool and large-scale ascent attendant to an approaching embedded shortwave increases. ..Mosier.. 02/29/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CST Thu Feb 29 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Synopsis... A low-amplitude southern-stream shortwave trough is forecast to progress from the Mid/Lower MS Valley eastward/northeastward across the OH and TN Valleys on Friday. A relatively cool and dry continental air mass will be in place across the eastern CONUS ahead of this wave, with little low-level air mass modification anticipated throughout the day. Even so, moderate mid-level moisture will accompany the shortwave, contributing to enough elevated buoyancy to support thunderstorms. Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing over the Lower MS Valley early Friday morning, and are expected to gradually progress eastward in tandem with the shortwave throughout the day. Late afternoon development is also expected ahead of the shortwave in the eastern GA and SC vicinity, supported by persistent warm-air advection. There is low chance that the warm sector may move inland over portion of the SC coast. Poor lapse rates will limit buoyancy, but strong kinematics could support a strong storm or two. Overall probability of severe is currently expected to remain lower than thresholds needed to delineate any areas. Farther west, upper troughing is expected to continue deepening across the western CONUS, with strong westerlies/southwesterlies persisting from West Coast through the Great Basin and northern Rockies. This westerly/southwesterly flow will help maintain mid-level moisture across the region while temperature continue to cool aloft. Early Friday, overall thermodynamic conditions appear most favorable for isolated thunderstorms along the Pacific Northwest coast. Conditions are expected to become gradually more supportive further south into northern CA as temperatures continue to cool and large-scale ascent attendant to an approaching embedded shortwave increases. ..Mosier.. 02/29/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CST Thu Feb 29 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Synopsis... A low-amplitude southern-stream shortwave trough is forecast to progress from the Mid/Lower MS Valley eastward/northeastward across the OH and TN Valleys on Friday. A relatively cool and dry continental air mass will be in place across the eastern CONUS ahead of this wave, with little low-level air mass modification anticipated throughout the day. Even so, moderate mid-level moisture will accompany the shortwave, contributing to enough elevated buoyancy to support thunderstorms. Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing over the Lower MS Valley early Friday morning, and are expected to gradually progress eastward in tandem with the shortwave throughout the day. Late afternoon development is also expected ahead of the shortwave in the eastern GA and SC vicinity, supported by persistent warm-air advection. There is low chance that the warm sector may move inland over portion of the SC coast. Poor lapse rates will limit buoyancy, but strong kinematics could support a strong storm or two. Overall probability of severe is currently expected to remain lower than thresholds needed to delineate any areas. Farther west, upper troughing is expected to continue deepening across the western CONUS, with strong westerlies/southwesterlies persisting from West Coast through the Great Basin and northern Rockies. This westerly/southwesterly flow will help maintain mid-level moisture across the region while temperature continue to cool aloft. Early Friday, overall thermodynamic conditions appear most favorable for isolated thunderstorms along the Pacific Northwest coast. Conditions are expected to become gradually more supportive further south into northern CA as temperatures continue to cool and large-scale ascent attendant to an approaching embedded shortwave increases. ..Mosier.. 02/29/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CST Thu Feb 29 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Synopsis... A low-amplitude southern-stream shortwave trough is forecast to progress from the Mid/Lower MS Valley eastward/northeastward across the OH and TN Valleys on Friday. A relatively cool and dry continental air mass will be in place across the eastern CONUS ahead of this wave, with little low-level air mass modification anticipated throughout the day. Even so, moderate mid-level moisture will accompany the shortwave, contributing to enough elevated buoyancy to support thunderstorms. Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing over the Lower MS Valley early Friday morning, and are expected to gradually progress eastward in tandem with the shortwave throughout the day. Late afternoon development is also expected ahead of the shortwave in the eastern GA and SC vicinity, supported by persistent warm-air advection. There is low chance that the warm sector may move inland over portion of the SC coast. Poor lapse rates will limit buoyancy, but strong kinematics could support a strong storm or two. Overall probability of severe is currently expected to remain lower than thresholds needed to delineate any areas. Farther west, upper troughing is expected to continue deepening across the western CONUS, with strong westerlies/southwesterlies persisting from West Coast through the Great Basin and northern Rockies. This westerly/southwesterly flow will help maintain mid-level moisture across the region while temperature continue to cool aloft. Early Friday, overall thermodynamic conditions appear most favorable for isolated thunderstorms along the Pacific Northwest coast. Conditions are expected to become gradually more supportive further south into northern CA as temperatures continue to cool and large-scale ascent attendant to an approaching embedded shortwave increases. ..Mosier.. 02/29/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CST Thu Feb 29 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Synopsis... A low-amplitude southern-stream shortwave trough is forecast to progress from the Mid/Lower MS Valley eastward/northeastward across the OH and TN Valleys on Friday. A relatively cool and dry continental air mass will be in place across the eastern CONUS ahead of this wave, with little low-level air mass modification anticipated throughout the day. Even so, moderate mid-level moisture will accompany the shortwave, contributing to enough elevated buoyancy to support thunderstorms. Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing over the Lower MS Valley early Friday morning, and are expected to gradually progress eastward in tandem with the shortwave throughout the day. Late afternoon development is also expected ahead of the shortwave in the eastern GA and SC vicinity, supported by persistent warm-air advection. There is low chance that the warm sector may move inland over portion of the SC coast. Poor lapse rates will limit buoyancy, but strong kinematics could support a strong storm or two. Overall probability of severe is currently expected to remain lower than thresholds needed to delineate any areas. Farther west, upper troughing is expected to continue deepening across the western CONUS, with strong westerlies/southwesterlies persisting from West Coast through the Great Basin and northern Rockies. This westerly/southwesterly flow will help maintain mid-level moisture across the region while temperature continue to cool aloft. Early Friday, overall thermodynamic conditions appear most favorable for isolated thunderstorms along the Pacific Northwest coast. Conditions are expected to become gradually more supportive further south into northern CA as temperatures continue to cool and large-scale ascent attendant to an approaching embedded shortwave increases. ..Mosier.. 02/29/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1040 AM CST Thu Feb 29 2024 Valid 291700Z - 011200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTH-CENTRAL KANSAS INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA... No changes to the ongoing forecast. RH values in parts of northern Kansas into southern Nebraska and southwest Iowa have already fallen into the 20s with winds of 20-25 mph (with gusts into the low 30s mph). With continued heating, Elevated to Critical fire weather will occur for a few hours through the afternoon. ..Wendt.. 02/29/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0202 AM CST Thu Feb 29 2024/ ...Synopsis... In the wake of a departing upper trough over the eastern US, a weak trough over the southern Plains should lift north into the central US. At the surface, high pressure over the eastern US will drive strong southerly return flow across parts of OK KS and NE this afternoon. Warm and dry surface conditions will also be present supporting potential for critical fire-weather conditions. ...Central Plains... With the approach of the weak upper low, surface pressure gradients are forecast to quickly tighten over the southern and central Plains. Surface winds will quickly increase to 20-25 mph with gusts as high as 30-35 mph through the day. Aided by clear skies and strong heating, afternoon RH values within the dry southerly flow should fall as low as 15-20%. While area fuel loading is not particularly dense, numerous days of preceding dry and windy conditions have resulted in critical dryness of short-hour fuels. Large vapor pressure deficits combined with the strong winds and clear skies should support additional drying through the day. Thus, widespread elevated and critical fire-weather conditions appear likely across parts of north-central/northeast KS into southeastern NE. ...Gulf Coast... Dry surface conditions are also possible across parts of the Southeast and central Gulf Coast in the wake of the departing cold front. While winds are not overly strong, lower humidity should overlap with areas of limited rainfall in recent weeks. Localized fire-weather concerns are possible before rain chances increase late tonight into Friday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1040 AM CST Thu Feb 29 2024 Valid 291700Z - 011200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTH-CENTRAL KANSAS INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA... No changes to the ongoing forecast. RH values in parts of northern Kansas into southern Nebraska and southwest Iowa have already fallen into the 20s with winds of 20-25 mph (with gusts into the low 30s mph). With continued heating, Elevated to Critical fire weather will occur for a few hours through the afternoon. ..Wendt.. 02/29/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0202 AM CST Thu Feb 29 2024/ ...Synopsis... In the wake of a departing upper trough over the eastern US, a weak trough over the southern Plains should lift north into the central US. At the surface, high pressure over the eastern US will drive strong southerly return flow across parts of OK KS and NE this afternoon. Warm and dry surface conditions will also be present supporting potential for critical fire-weather conditions. ...Central Plains... With the approach of the weak upper low, surface pressure gradients are forecast to quickly tighten over the southern and central Plains. Surface winds will quickly increase to 20-25 mph with gusts as high as 30-35 mph through the day. Aided by clear skies and strong heating, afternoon RH values within the dry southerly flow should fall as low as 15-20%. While area fuel loading is not particularly dense, numerous days of preceding dry and windy conditions have resulted in critical dryness of short-hour fuels. Large vapor pressure deficits combined with the strong winds and clear skies should support additional drying through the day. Thus, widespread elevated and critical fire-weather conditions appear likely across parts of north-central/northeast KS into southeastern NE. ...Gulf Coast... Dry surface conditions are also possible across parts of the Southeast and central Gulf Coast in the wake of the departing cold front. While winds are not overly strong, lower humidity should overlap with areas of limited rainfall in recent weeks. Localized fire-weather concerns are possible before rain chances increase late tonight into Friday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1040 AM CST Thu Feb 29 2024 Valid 291700Z - 011200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTH-CENTRAL KANSAS INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA... No changes to the ongoing forecast. RH values in parts of northern Kansas into southern Nebraska and southwest Iowa have already fallen into the 20s with winds of 20-25 mph (with gusts into the low 30s mph). With continued heating, Elevated to Critical fire weather will occur for a few hours through the afternoon. ..Wendt.. 02/29/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0202 AM CST Thu Feb 29 2024/ ...Synopsis... In the wake of a departing upper trough over the eastern US, a weak trough over the southern Plains should lift north into the central US. At the surface, high pressure over the eastern US will drive strong southerly return flow across parts of OK KS and NE this afternoon. Warm and dry surface conditions will also be present supporting potential for critical fire-weather conditions. ...Central Plains... With the approach of the weak upper low, surface pressure gradients are forecast to quickly tighten over the southern and central Plains. Surface winds will quickly increase to 20-25 mph with gusts as high as 30-35 mph through the day. Aided by clear skies and strong heating, afternoon RH values within the dry southerly flow should fall as low as 15-20%. While area fuel loading is not particularly dense, numerous days of preceding dry and windy conditions have resulted in critical dryness of short-hour fuels. Large vapor pressure deficits combined with the strong winds and clear skies should support additional drying through the day. Thus, widespread elevated and critical fire-weather conditions appear likely across parts of north-central/northeast KS into southeastern NE. ...Gulf Coast... Dry surface conditions are also possible across parts of the Southeast and central Gulf Coast in the wake of the departing cold front. While winds are not overly strong, lower humidity should overlap with areas of limited rainfall in recent weeks. Localized fire-weather concerns are possible before rain chances increase late tonight into Friday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1040 AM CST Thu Feb 29 2024 Valid 291700Z - 011200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTH-CENTRAL KANSAS INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA... No changes to the ongoing forecast. RH values in parts of northern Kansas into southern Nebraska and southwest Iowa have already fallen into the 20s with winds of 20-25 mph (with gusts into the low 30s mph). With continued heating, Elevated to Critical fire weather will occur for a few hours through the afternoon. ..Wendt.. 02/29/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0202 AM CST Thu Feb 29 2024/ ...Synopsis... In the wake of a departing upper trough over the eastern US, a weak trough over the southern Plains should lift north into the central US. At the surface, high pressure over the eastern US will drive strong southerly return flow across parts of OK KS and NE this afternoon. Warm and dry surface conditions will also be present supporting potential for critical fire-weather conditions. ...Central Plains... With the approach of the weak upper low, surface pressure gradients are forecast to quickly tighten over the southern and central Plains. Surface winds will quickly increase to 20-25 mph with gusts as high as 30-35 mph through the day. Aided by clear skies and strong heating, afternoon RH values within the dry southerly flow should fall as low as 15-20%. While area fuel loading is not particularly dense, numerous days of preceding dry and windy conditions have resulted in critical dryness of short-hour fuels. Large vapor pressure deficits combined with the strong winds and clear skies should support additional drying through the day. Thus, widespread elevated and critical fire-weather conditions appear likely across parts of north-central/northeast KS into southeastern NE. ...Gulf Coast... Dry surface conditions are also possible across parts of the Southeast and central Gulf Coast in the wake of the departing cold front. While winds are not overly strong, lower humidity should overlap with areas of limited rainfall in recent weeks. Localized fire-weather concerns are possible before rain chances increase late tonight into Friday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1040 AM CST Thu Feb 29 2024 Valid 291700Z - 011200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTH-CENTRAL KANSAS INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA... No changes to the ongoing forecast. RH values in parts of northern Kansas into southern Nebraska and southwest Iowa have already fallen into the 20s with winds of 20-25 mph (with gusts into the low 30s mph). With continued heating, Elevated to Critical fire weather will occur for a few hours through the afternoon. ..Wendt.. 02/29/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0202 AM CST Thu Feb 29 2024/ ...Synopsis... In the wake of a departing upper trough over the eastern US, a weak trough over the southern Plains should lift north into the central US. At the surface, high pressure over the eastern US will drive strong southerly return flow across parts of OK KS and NE this afternoon. Warm and dry surface conditions will also be present supporting potential for critical fire-weather conditions. ...Central Plains... With the approach of the weak upper low, surface pressure gradients are forecast to quickly tighten over the southern and central Plains. Surface winds will quickly increase to 20-25 mph with gusts as high as 30-35 mph through the day. Aided by clear skies and strong heating, afternoon RH values within the dry southerly flow should fall as low as 15-20%. While area fuel loading is not particularly dense, numerous days of preceding dry and windy conditions have resulted in critical dryness of short-hour fuels. Large vapor pressure deficits combined with the strong winds and clear skies should support additional drying through the day. Thus, widespread elevated and critical fire-weather conditions appear likely across parts of north-central/northeast KS into southeastern NE. ...Gulf Coast... Dry surface conditions are also possible across parts of the Southeast and central Gulf Coast in the wake of the departing cold front. While winds are not overly strong, lower humidity should overlap with areas of limited rainfall in recent weeks. Localized fire-weather concerns are possible before rain chances increase late tonight into Friday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1040 AM CST Thu Feb 29 2024 Valid 291700Z - 011200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTH-CENTRAL KANSAS INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA... No changes to the ongoing forecast. RH values in parts of northern Kansas into southern Nebraska and southwest Iowa have already fallen into the 20s with winds of 20-25 mph (with gusts into the low 30s mph). With continued heating, Elevated to Critical fire weather will occur for a few hours through the afternoon. ..Wendt.. 02/29/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0202 AM CST Thu Feb 29 2024/ ...Synopsis... In the wake of a departing upper trough over the eastern US, a weak trough over the southern Plains should lift north into the central US. At the surface, high pressure over the eastern US will drive strong southerly return flow across parts of OK KS and NE this afternoon. Warm and dry surface conditions will also be present supporting potential for critical fire-weather conditions. ...Central Plains... With the approach of the weak upper low, surface pressure gradients are forecast to quickly tighten over the southern and central Plains. Surface winds will quickly increase to 20-25 mph with gusts as high as 30-35 mph through the day. Aided by clear skies and strong heating, afternoon RH values within the dry southerly flow should fall as low as 15-20%. While area fuel loading is not particularly dense, numerous days of preceding dry and windy conditions have resulted in critical dryness of short-hour fuels. Large vapor pressure deficits combined with the strong winds and clear skies should support additional drying through the day. Thus, widespread elevated and critical fire-weather conditions appear likely across parts of north-central/northeast KS into southeastern NE. ...Gulf Coast... Dry surface conditions are also possible across parts of the Southeast and central Gulf Coast in the wake of the departing cold front. While winds are not overly strong, lower humidity should overlap with areas of limited rainfall in recent weeks. Localized fire-weather concerns are possible before rain chances increase late tonight into Friday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1015 AM CST Thu Feb 29 2024 Valid 291630Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today. ...Northwest States... Scattered thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and tonight in vicinity of the Pacific Northwest coast, and along a cold front moving across ID. Activity is expected to be low-topped and weak. ...ArkLaTex Region... A southern-stream shortwave trough over NM will continue tracking eastward, enhancing low-level warm advection across areas from TX/OK eastward into the lower MS valley. Forecast soundings suggest weak but sufficient CAPE for isolated thunderstorms across the region through tonight. Some small hail is possible over east TX and southern LA late tonight, but no severe storms are currently anticipated. ..Hart/Bentley.. 02/29/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1015 AM CST Thu Feb 29 2024 Valid 291630Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today. ...Northwest States... Scattered thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and tonight in vicinity of the Pacific Northwest coast, and along a cold front moving across ID. Activity is expected to be low-topped and weak. ...ArkLaTex Region... A southern-stream shortwave trough over NM will continue tracking eastward, enhancing low-level warm advection across areas from TX/OK eastward into the lower MS valley. Forecast soundings suggest weak but sufficient CAPE for isolated thunderstorms across the region through tonight. Some small hail is possible over east TX and southern LA late tonight, but no severe storms are currently anticipated. ..Hart/Bentley.. 02/29/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1015 AM CST Thu Feb 29 2024 Valid 291630Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today. ...Northwest States... Scattered thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and tonight in vicinity of the Pacific Northwest coast, and along a cold front moving across ID. Activity is expected to be low-topped and weak. ...ArkLaTex Region... A southern-stream shortwave trough over NM will continue tracking eastward, enhancing low-level warm advection across areas from TX/OK eastward into the lower MS valley. Forecast soundings suggest weak but sufficient CAPE for isolated thunderstorms across the region through tonight. Some small hail is possible over east TX and southern LA late tonight, but no severe storms are currently anticipated. ..Hart/Bentley.. 02/29/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1015 AM CST Thu Feb 29 2024 Valid 291630Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today. ...Northwest States... Scattered thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and tonight in vicinity of the Pacific Northwest coast, and along a cold front moving across ID. Activity is expected to be low-topped and weak. ...ArkLaTex Region... A southern-stream shortwave trough over NM will continue tracking eastward, enhancing low-level warm advection across areas from TX/OK eastward into the lower MS valley. Forecast soundings suggest weak but sufficient CAPE for isolated thunderstorms across the region through tonight. Some small hail is possible over east TX and southern LA late tonight, but no severe storms are currently anticipated. ..Hart/Bentley.. 02/29/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1015 AM CST Thu Feb 29 2024 Valid 291630Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today. ...Northwest States... Scattered thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and tonight in vicinity of the Pacific Northwest coast, and along a cold front moving across ID. Activity is expected to be low-topped and weak. ...ArkLaTex Region... A southern-stream shortwave trough over NM will continue tracking eastward, enhancing low-level warm advection across areas from TX/OK eastward into the lower MS valley. Forecast soundings suggest weak but sufficient CAPE for isolated thunderstorms across the region through tonight. Some small hail is possible over east TX and southern LA late tonight, but no severe storms are currently anticipated. ..Hart/Bentley.. 02/29/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1015 AM CST Thu Feb 29 2024 Valid 291630Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today. ...Northwest States... Scattered thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and tonight in vicinity of the Pacific Northwest coast, and along a cold front moving across ID. Activity is expected to be low-topped and weak. ...ArkLaTex Region... A southern-stream shortwave trough over NM will continue tracking eastward, enhancing low-level warm advection across areas from TX/OK eastward into the lower MS valley. Forecast soundings suggest weak but sufficient CAPE for isolated thunderstorms across the region through tonight. Some small hail is possible over east TX and southern LA late tonight, but no severe storms are currently anticipated. ..Hart/Bentley.. 02/29/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1015 AM CST Thu Feb 29 2024 Valid 291630Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today. ...Northwest States... Scattered thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and tonight in vicinity of the Pacific Northwest coast, and along a cold front moving across ID. Activity is expected to be low-topped and weak. ...ArkLaTex Region... A southern-stream shortwave trough over NM will continue tracking eastward, enhancing low-level warm advection across areas from TX/OK eastward into the lower MS valley. Forecast soundings suggest weak but sufficient CAPE for isolated thunderstorms across the region through tonight. Some small hail is possible over east TX and southern LA late tonight, but no severe storms are currently anticipated. ..Hart/Bentley.. 02/29/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0658 AM CST Thu Feb 29 2024 Valid 291300Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today. ...Synopsis... A negatively tilted upper trough -- extending from James Bay to southern New England this morning -- will continue to pivot northeastward across New England through the day, and into the Canadian Maritimes overnight. Meanwhile, a second upper short-wave trough, embedded within cyclonic flow around a Gulf of Alaska cyclone, will shift inland/across the Pacific Northwest. In between the two troughs, weak ridging will prevail, though a smaller-scale southern-stream trough will continue undercutting the northern-stream ridge, crossing the south-central U.S. through the period. At the surface, high pressure will prevail over the eastern half of the country in the wake of the prior cold-frontal passage. Meanwhile, a cold front will advance southeastward across the Northwest in conjunction with the aforementioned upper troughing. Other features of note will be a lee trough over the high Plains, and a warm front over the north-central states that will gradually lift northward across the international border. Thunderstorms will be possible along the West Coast today and tonight, primarily in orographically favored areas of the Coast Ranges of the Pacific Northwest, and secondarily across portions of Idaho in the vicinity of the advancing cold front. Weak instability is anticipated, with shallow/low-topped convection the result. Meanwhile, elevated thunderstorms based above 850mb are ongoing across portions of western Texas and the Transpecos region, ahead of the southern-stream vort max described earlier. Showers and embedded thunderstorms will spread eastward across the southern Plains in advance of this feature, reaching as far east as Mississippi/Louisiana late in the period. While small hail will be possible overnight from East Texas eastward, as more substantial elevated CAPE evolves, severe risk appears likely to remain minimal at best. ..Goss/Broyles.. 02/29/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0658 AM CST Thu Feb 29 2024 Valid 291300Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today. ...Synopsis... A negatively tilted upper trough -- extending from James Bay to southern New England this morning -- will continue to pivot northeastward across New England through the day, and into the Canadian Maritimes overnight. Meanwhile, a second upper short-wave trough, embedded within cyclonic flow around a Gulf of Alaska cyclone, will shift inland/across the Pacific Northwest. In between the two troughs, weak ridging will prevail, though a smaller-scale southern-stream trough will continue undercutting the northern-stream ridge, crossing the south-central U.S. through the period. At the surface, high pressure will prevail over the eastern half of the country in the wake of the prior cold-frontal passage. Meanwhile, a cold front will advance southeastward across the Northwest in conjunction with the aforementioned upper troughing. Other features of note will be a lee trough over the high Plains, and a warm front over the north-central states that will gradually lift northward across the international border. Thunderstorms will be possible along the West Coast today and tonight, primarily in orographically favored areas of the Coast Ranges of the Pacific Northwest, and secondarily across portions of Idaho in the vicinity of the advancing cold front. Weak instability is anticipated, with shallow/low-topped convection the result. Meanwhile, elevated thunderstorms based above 850mb are ongoing across portions of western Texas and the Transpecos region, ahead of the southern-stream vort max described earlier. Showers and embedded thunderstorms will spread eastward across the southern Plains in advance of this feature, reaching as far east as Mississippi/Louisiana late in the period. While small hail will be possible overnight from East Texas eastward, as more substantial elevated CAPE evolves, severe risk appears likely to remain minimal at best. ..Goss/Broyles.. 02/29/2024 Read more