Severe Storms

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SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0306 PM CST Sat Feb 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 031200Z A split-flow upper-level pattern will be present to begin the new week. A trough will be in the process of digging into the Great Basin while southern stream flow remains strong across the southern Rockies. The primary trough is forecast to phase with a weaker southern stream feature over the Plains by midweek. Large-scale ridging will then encompass much of the CONUS as the amplifying trough moves offshore late this coming week. Guidance then suggests general troughing in the West that will slowly shift eastward with time. ...Central/Southern High Plains... The approach of the early-week trough and continued strong southern stream flow across the southern Rockies will promote a moderately strong surface pressure gradient on Monday across the regions. Though mid/high-level cloud cover casts some uncertainty on RH reductions, surface winds of 20-25 mph appear probable with at least a few hours of critically low RH for some areas. Surface winds will also be enhanced across parts of eastern Wyoming into Nebraska, but RH reductions are more uncertain on top of currently low fuel receptiveness. For Tuesday, surface winds ahead of the cold front moving southward will be stronger than Monday. Winds of 20-30 mph can be expected with locally greater speeds possible. Due to increasing cloud cover, temperatures are likely to be cooler, limiting RH reductions. However, given the wind magnitudes, 40% probabilities will be maintained. The cold front will eventually pass and RH will increase rapidly. Guidance is in agreement that this will not occur until early evening. As the cold front passes and the surface high shifts to the east by Thursday, a few days of dry, southerly return flow will be possible across the southern High Plains into parts of the central Plains. The overall synoptic pattern should have some degree of predictability and precipitation in these areas should be minimal/light. However, potential for critical fire weather is uncertain given the lack of stronger large-scale features. These areas will continue to be monitored in the coming days. ..Wendt.. 02/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0306 PM CST Sat Feb 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 031200Z A split-flow upper-level pattern will be present to begin the new week. A trough will be in the process of digging into the Great Basin while southern stream flow remains strong across the southern Rockies. The primary trough is forecast to phase with a weaker southern stream feature over the Plains by midweek. Large-scale ridging will then encompass much of the CONUS as the amplifying trough moves offshore late this coming week. Guidance then suggests general troughing in the West that will slowly shift eastward with time. ...Central/Southern High Plains... The approach of the early-week trough and continued strong southern stream flow across the southern Rockies will promote a moderately strong surface pressure gradient on Monday across the regions. Though mid/high-level cloud cover casts some uncertainty on RH reductions, surface winds of 20-25 mph appear probable with at least a few hours of critically low RH for some areas. Surface winds will also be enhanced across parts of eastern Wyoming into Nebraska, but RH reductions are more uncertain on top of currently low fuel receptiveness. For Tuesday, surface winds ahead of the cold front moving southward will be stronger than Monday. Winds of 20-30 mph can be expected with locally greater speeds possible. Due to increasing cloud cover, temperatures are likely to be cooler, limiting RH reductions. However, given the wind magnitudes, 40% probabilities will be maintained. The cold front will eventually pass and RH will increase rapidly. Guidance is in agreement that this will not occur until early evening. As the cold front passes and the surface high shifts to the east by Thursday, a few days of dry, southerly return flow will be possible across the southern High Plains into parts of the central Plains. The overall synoptic pattern should have some degree of predictability and precipitation in these areas should be minimal/light. However, potential for critical fire weather is uncertain given the lack of stronger large-scale features. These areas will continue to be monitored in the coming days. ..Wendt.. 02/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0306 PM CST Sat Feb 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 031200Z A split-flow upper-level pattern will be present to begin the new week. A trough will be in the process of digging into the Great Basin while southern stream flow remains strong across the southern Rockies. The primary trough is forecast to phase with a weaker southern stream feature over the Plains by midweek. Large-scale ridging will then encompass much of the CONUS as the amplifying trough moves offshore late this coming week. Guidance then suggests general troughing in the West that will slowly shift eastward with time. ...Central/Southern High Plains... The approach of the early-week trough and continued strong southern stream flow across the southern Rockies will promote a moderately strong surface pressure gradient on Monday across the regions. Though mid/high-level cloud cover casts some uncertainty on RH reductions, surface winds of 20-25 mph appear probable with at least a few hours of critically low RH for some areas. Surface winds will also be enhanced across parts of eastern Wyoming into Nebraska, but RH reductions are more uncertain on top of currently low fuel receptiveness. For Tuesday, surface winds ahead of the cold front moving southward will be stronger than Monday. Winds of 20-30 mph can be expected with locally greater speeds possible. Due to increasing cloud cover, temperatures are likely to be cooler, limiting RH reductions. However, given the wind magnitudes, 40% probabilities will be maintained. The cold front will eventually pass and RH will increase rapidly. Guidance is in agreement that this will not occur until early evening. As the cold front passes and the surface high shifts to the east by Thursday, a few days of dry, southerly return flow will be possible across the southern High Plains into parts of the central Plains. The overall synoptic pattern should have some degree of predictability and precipitation in these areas should be minimal/light. However, potential for critical fire weather is uncertain given the lack of stronger large-scale features. These areas will continue to be monitored in the coming days. ..Wendt.. 02/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0306 PM CST Sat Feb 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 031200Z A split-flow upper-level pattern will be present to begin the new week. A trough will be in the process of digging into the Great Basin while southern stream flow remains strong across the southern Rockies. The primary trough is forecast to phase with a weaker southern stream feature over the Plains by midweek. Large-scale ridging will then encompass much of the CONUS as the amplifying trough moves offshore late this coming week. Guidance then suggests general troughing in the West that will slowly shift eastward with time. ...Central/Southern High Plains... The approach of the early-week trough and continued strong southern stream flow across the southern Rockies will promote a moderately strong surface pressure gradient on Monday across the regions. Though mid/high-level cloud cover casts some uncertainty on RH reductions, surface winds of 20-25 mph appear probable with at least a few hours of critically low RH for some areas. Surface winds will also be enhanced across parts of eastern Wyoming into Nebraska, but RH reductions are more uncertain on top of currently low fuel receptiveness. For Tuesday, surface winds ahead of the cold front moving southward will be stronger than Monday. Winds of 20-30 mph can be expected with locally greater speeds possible. Due to increasing cloud cover, temperatures are likely to be cooler, limiting RH reductions. However, given the wind magnitudes, 40% probabilities will be maintained. The cold front will eventually pass and RH will increase rapidly. Guidance is in agreement that this will not occur until early evening. As the cold front passes and the surface high shifts to the east by Thursday, a few days of dry, southerly return flow will be possible across the southern High Plains into parts of the central Plains. The overall synoptic pattern should have some degree of predictability and precipitation in these areas should be minimal/light. However, potential for critical fire weather is uncertain given the lack of stronger large-scale features. These areas will continue to be monitored in the coming days. ..Wendt.. 02/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0306 PM CST Sat Feb 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 031200Z A split-flow upper-level pattern will be present to begin the new week. A trough will be in the process of digging into the Great Basin while southern stream flow remains strong across the southern Rockies. The primary trough is forecast to phase with a weaker southern stream feature over the Plains by midweek. Large-scale ridging will then encompass much of the CONUS as the amplifying trough moves offshore late this coming week. Guidance then suggests general troughing in the West that will slowly shift eastward with time. ...Central/Southern High Plains... The approach of the early-week trough and continued strong southern stream flow across the southern Rockies will promote a moderately strong surface pressure gradient on Monday across the regions. Though mid/high-level cloud cover casts some uncertainty on RH reductions, surface winds of 20-25 mph appear probable with at least a few hours of critically low RH for some areas. Surface winds will also be enhanced across parts of eastern Wyoming into Nebraska, but RH reductions are more uncertain on top of currently low fuel receptiveness. For Tuesday, surface winds ahead of the cold front moving southward will be stronger than Monday. Winds of 20-30 mph can be expected with locally greater speeds possible. Due to increasing cloud cover, temperatures are likely to be cooler, limiting RH reductions. However, given the wind magnitudes, 40% probabilities will be maintained. The cold front will eventually pass and RH will increase rapidly. Guidance is in agreement that this will not occur until early evening. As the cold front passes and the surface high shifts to the east by Thursday, a few days of dry, southerly return flow will be possible across the southern High Plains into parts of the central Plains. The overall synoptic pattern should have some degree of predictability and precipitation in these areas should be minimal/light. However, potential for critical fire weather is uncertain given the lack of stronger large-scale features. These areas will continue to be monitored in the coming days. ..Wendt.. 02/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0120 PM CST Sat Feb 24 2024 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms remain possible across parts of the Carolinas this afternoon. ...20Z Update... No changes have been made to the prior outlook. ..Gleason.. 02/24/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1017 AM CST Sat Feb 24 2024/ ...Carolinas... A deep upper trough is rotating across the eastern states today, with an associated area of large scale lift and precipitation crossing the Appalachians. Mid-level temperatures are unusually cold across the Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas today, with 500mb temperatures of -28 to -30C. Considerable daytime heating over NC/SC will steepen low-level lapse rates and result in marginal CAPE around peak-heating - despite very meager low level moisture. Most 12z model guidance and machine-learning tools suggest potential for isolated thunderstorms, mainly in the 21-02z period. No severe storms are anticipated. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0120 PM CST Sat Feb 24 2024 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms remain possible across parts of the Carolinas this afternoon. ...20Z Update... No changes have been made to the prior outlook. ..Gleason.. 02/24/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1017 AM CST Sat Feb 24 2024/ ...Carolinas... A deep upper trough is rotating across the eastern states today, with an associated area of large scale lift and precipitation crossing the Appalachians. Mid-level temperatures are unusually cold across the Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas today, with 500mb temperatures of -28 to -30C. Considerable daytime heating over NC/SC will steepen low-level lapse rates and result in marginal CAPE around peak-heating - despite very meager low level moisture. Most 12z model guidance and machine-learning tools suggest potential for isolated thunderstorms, mainly in the 21-02z period. No severe storms are anticipated. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0120 PM CST Sat Feb 24 2024 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms remain possible across parts of the Carolinas this afternoon. ...20Z Update... No changes have been made to the prior outlook. ..Gleason.. 02/24/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1017 AM CST Sat Feb 24 2024/ ...Carolinas... A deep upper trough is rotating across the eastern states today, with an associated area of large scale lift and precipitation crossing the Appalachians. Mid-level temperatures are unusually cold across the Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas today, with 500mb temperatures of -28 to -30C. Considerable daytime heating over NC/SC will steepen low-level lapse rates and result in marginal CAPE around peak-heating - despite very meager low level moisture. Most 12z model guidance and machine-learning tools suggest potential for isolated thunderstorms, mainly in the 21-02z period. No severe storms are anticipated. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0120 PM CST Sat Feb 24 2024 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms remain possible across parts of the Carolinas this afternoon. ...20Z Update... No changes have been made to the prior outlook. ..Gleason.. 02/24/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1017 AM CST Sat Feb 24 2024/ ...Carolinas... A deep upper trough is rotating across the eastern states today, with an associated area of large scale lift and precipitation crossing the Appalachians. Mid-level temperatures are unusually cold across the Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas today, with 500mb temperatures of -28 to -30C. Considerable daytime heating over NC/SC will steepen low-level lapse rates and result in marginal CAPE around peak-heating - despite very meager low level moisture. Most 12z model guidance and machine-learning tools suggest potential for isolated thunderstorms, mainly in the 21-02z period. No severe storms are anticipated. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0120 PM CST Sat Feb 24 2024 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms remain possible across parts of the Carolinas this afternoon. ...20Z Update... No changes have been made to the prior outlook. ..Gleason.. 02/24/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1017 AM CST Sat Feb 24 2024/ ...Carolinas... A deep upper trough is rotating across the eastern states today, with an associated area of large scale lift and precipitation crossing the Appalachians. Mid-level temperatures are unusually cold across the Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas today, with 500mb temperatures of -28 to -30C. Considerable daytime heating over NC/SC will steepen low-level lapse rates and result in marginal CAPE around peak-heating - despite very meager low level moisture. Most 12z model guidance and machine-learning tools suggest potential for isolated thunderstorms, mainly in the 21-02z period. No severe storms are anticipated. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CST Sat Feb 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z The forecast remains unchanged. Locally elevated conditions appear probable farther north into the Front Range and southeast Wyoming. A strong cross-Divide pressure gradient will drive strong surface winds in the immediate vicinity of the terrain. Current fuel guidance continues to suggest limited fuel availability with northern extent, but quick drying of fine fuels in these scenarios could allow for fire spread should any ignitions occur. ..Wendt.. 02/24/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CST Sat Feb 24 2024/ ...Synopsis... Broad northwesterly flow aloft will continue to strengthen over much of the western and central US through D2/Sunday. At the surface, a lee trough/low will intensify over parts of TX and OK helping to increase surface winds farther west. Dry and breezy conditions should promote elevated to near-critical fire-weather concerns over the southern High Plains and Southwest D2/Sunday. ...Southwest and southern High Plains... Stronger northwest flow aloft will gradually increase over parts of the Southwest and southern High Plains through D2/Sunday. Downslope flow is expected behind a weak lee low over parts of central and north TX. Aided by the stronger flow aloft, gusty surface winds of 20-25 mph are possible across parts of eastern NM and west TX. Afternoon RH values below 20% will also be likely along with warm temperatures. With little rain over this area in the past several weeks, emerging dryness within area fuels is expected to support a risk for elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions through the afternoon hours. Gusty winds and poor humidity recoveries may continue overnight and into early D3/Monday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CST Sat Feb 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z The forecast remains unchanged. Locally elevated conditions appear probable farther north into the Front Range and southeast Wyoming. A strong cross-Divide pressure gradient will drive strong surface winds in the immediate vicinity of the terrain. Current fuel guidance continues to suggest limited fuel availability with northern extent, but quick drying of fine fuels in these scenarios could allow for fire spread should any ignitions occur. ..Wendt.. 02/24/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CST Sat Feb 24 2024/ ...Synopsis... Broad northwesterly flow aloft will continue to strengthen over much of the western and central US through D2/Sunday. At the surface, a lee trough/low will intensify over parts of TX and OK helping to increase surface winds farther west. Dry and breezy conditions should promote elevated to near-critical fire-weather concerns over the southern High Plains and Southwest D2/Sunday. ...Southwest and southern High Plains... Stronger northwest flow aloft will gradually increase over parts of the Southwest and southern High Plains through D2/Sunday. Downslope flow is expected behind a weak lee low over parts of central and north TX. Aided by the stronger flow aloft, gusty surface winds of 20-25 mph are possible across parts of eastern NM and west TX. Afternoon RH values below 20% will also be likely along with warm temperatures. With little rain over this area in the past several weeks, emerging dryness within area fuels is expected to support a risk for elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions through the afternoon hours. Gusty winds and poor humidity recoveries may continue overnight and into early D3/Monday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CST Sat Feb 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z The forecast remains unchanged. Locally elevated conditions appear probable farther north into the Front Range and southeast Wyoming. A strong cross-Divide pressure gradient will drive strong surface winds in the immediate vicinity of the terrain. Current fuel guidance continues to suggest limited fuel availability with northern extent, but quick drying of fine fuels in these scenarios could allow for fire spread should any ignitions occur. ..Wendt.. 02/24/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CST Sat Feb 24 2024/ ...Synopsis... Broad northwesterly flow aloft will continue to strengthen over much of the western and central US through D2/Sunday. At the surface, a lee trough/low will intensify over parts of TX and OK helping to increase surface winds farther west. Dry and breezy conditions should promote elevated to near-critical fire-weather concerns over the southern High Plains and Southwest D2/Sunday. ...Southwest and southern High Plains... Stronger northwest flow aloft will gradually increase over parts of the Southwest and southern High Plains through D2/Sunday. Downslope flow is expected behind a weak lee low over parts of central and north TX. Aided by the stronger flow aloft, gusty surface winds of 20-25 mph are possible across parts of eastern NM and west TX. Afternoon RH values below 20% will also be likely along with warm temperatures. With little rain over this area in the past several weeks, emerging dryness within area fuels is expected to support a risk for elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions through the afternoon hours. Gusty winds and poor humidity recoveries may continue overnight and into early D3/Monday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CST Sat Feb 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z The forecast remains unchanged. Locally elevated conditions appear probable farther north into the Front Range and southeast Wyoming. A strong cross-Divide pressure gradient will drive strong surface winds in the immediate vicinity of the terrain. Current fuel guidance continues to suggest limited fuel availability with northern extent, but quick drying of fine fuels in these scenarios could allow for fire spread should any ignitions occur. ..Wendt.. 02/24/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CST Sat Feb 24 2024/ ...Synopsis... Broad northwesterly flow aloft will continue to strengthen over much of the western and central US through D2/Sunday. At the surface, a lee trough/low will intensify over parts of TX and OK helping to increase surface winds farther west. Dry and breezy conditions should promote elevated to near-critical fire-weather concerns over the southern High Plains and Southwest D2/Sunday. ...Southwest and southern High Plains... Stronger northwest flow aloft will gradually increase over parts of the Southwest and southern High Plains through D2/Sunday. Downslope flow is expected behind a weak lee low over parts of central and north TX. Aided by the stronger flow aloft, gusty surface winds of 20-25 mph are possible across parts of eastern NM and west TX. Afternoon RH values below 20% will also be likely along with warm temperatures. With little rain over this area in the past several weeks, emerging dryness within area fuels is expected to support a risk for elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions through the afternoon hours. Gusty winds and poor humidity recoveries may continue overnight and into early D3/Monday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CST Sat Feb 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z The forecast remains unchanged. Locally elevated conditions appear probable farther north into the Front Range and southeast Wyoming. A strong cross-Divide pressure gradient will drive strong surface winds in the immediate vicinity of the terrain. Current fuel guidance continues to suggest limited fuel availability with northern extent, but quick drying of fine fuels in these scenarios could allow for fire spread should any ignitions occur. ..Wendt.. 02/24/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CST Sat Feb 24 2024/ ...Synopsis... Broad northwesterly flow aloft will continue to strengthen over much of the western and central US through D2/Sunday. At the surface, a lee trough/low will intensify over parts of TX and OK helping to increase surface winds farther west. Dry and breezy conditions should promote elevated to near-critical fire-weather concerns over the southern High Plains and Southwest D2/Sunday. ...Southwest and southern High Plains... Stronger northwest flow aloft will gradually increase over parts of the Southwest and southern High Plains through D2/Sunday. Downslope flow is expected behind a weak lee low over parts of central and north TX. Aided by the stronger flow aloft, gusty surface winds of 20-25 mph are possible across parts of eastern NM and west TX. Afternoon RH values below 20% will also be likely along with warm temperatures. With little rain over this area in the past several weeks, emerging dryness within area fuels is expected to support a risk for elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions through the afternoon hours. Gusty winds and poor humidity recoveries may continue overnight and into early D3/Monday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CST Sat Feb 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may occur Sunday night across parts of coastal/northwest Washington. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Thunderstorm potential is expected to remain quite low Sunday across a large majority of the CONUS, with one or two possible exceptions. An upper trough, with associated mid/upper-level jet, is forecast to gradually amplify over British Columbia and the Pacific Northwest through the period. Mid-level temperatures should gradually cool while lapse rates aloft steepen as this amplification occurs. Low-topped convection may eventually develop offshore Sunday night and spread across parts of coastal/northwest WA. Latest NAM/RAP forecast soundings suggest some chance for updrafts to extend deep enough to support charge separation and occasional lightning flashes. A lightning flash or two also cannot be ruled out across parts of northern CA through the day as weak MUCAPE develops with diurnal heating. But with weak forcing aloft, overall thunderstorm coverage across this area should remain below 10%. ..Gleason.. 02/24/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CST Sat Feb 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may occur Sunday night across parts of coastal/northwest Washington. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Thunderstorm potential is expected to remain quite low Sunday across a large majority of the CONUS, with one or two possible exceptions. An upper trough, with associated mid/upper-level jet, is forecast to gradually amplify over British Columbia and the Pacific Northwest through the period. Mid-level temperatures should gradually cool while lapse rates aloft steepen as this amplification occurs. Low-topped convection may eventually develop offshore Sunday night and spread across parts of coastal/northwest WA. Latest NAM/RAP forecast soundings suggest some chance for updrafts to extend deep enough to support charge separation and occasional lightning flashes. A lightning flash or two also cannot be ruled out across parts of northern CA through the day as weak MUCAPE develops with diurnal heating. But with weak forcing aloft, overall thunderstorm coverage across this area should remain below 10%. ..Gleason.. 02/24/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CST Sat Feb 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may occur Sunday night across parts of coastal/northwest Washington. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Thunderstorm potential is expected to remain quite low Sunday across a large majority of the CONUS, with one or two possible exceptions. An upper trough, with associated mid/upper-level jet, is forecast to gradually amplify over British Columbia and the Pacific Northwest through the period. Mid-level temperatures should gradually cool while lapse rates aloft steepen as this amplification occurs. Low-topped convection may eventually develop offshore Sunday night and spread across parts of coastal/northwest WA. Latest NAM/RAP forecast soundings suggest some chance for updrafts to extend deep enough to support charge separation and occasional lightning flashes. A lightning flash or two also cannot be ruled out across parts of northern CA through the day as weak MUCAPE develops with diurnal heating. But with weak forcing aloft, overall thunderstorm coverage across this area should remain below 10%. ..Gleason.. 02/24/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CST Sat Feb 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may occur Sunday night across parts of coastal/northwest Washington. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Thunderstorm potential is expected to remain quite low Sunday across a large majority of the CONUS, with one or two possible exceptions. An upper trough, with associated mid/upper-level jet, is forecast to gradually amplify over British Columbia and the Pacific Northwest through the period. Mid-level temperatures should gradually cool while lapse rates aloft steepen as this amplification occurs. Low-topped convection may eventually develop offshore Sunday night and spread across parts of coastal/northwest WA. Latest NAM/RAP forecast soundings suggest some chance for updrafts to extend deep enough to support charge separation and occasional lightning flashes. A lightning flash or two also cannot be ruled out across parts of northern CA through the day as weak MUCAPE develops with diurnal heating. But with weak forcing aloft, overall thunderstorm coverage across this area should remain below 10%. ..Gleason.. 02/24/2024 Read more