Severe Storms

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0643 PM CST Fri Feb 23 2024 Valid 240100Z - 241200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm threat is decreasing along the South Carolina coast. Lightning will shift offshore soon. ...01z Update... Early-evening water-vapor imagery depicts a short-wave trough ejecting across the Carolinas. This feature appears partly responsible for convection that developed along/immediately behind a weak surface front that is advancing toward the coast. Primary risk of convection is shifting offshore quickly in response to the progressive short wave. While a lingering flash or two of lightning may accompany weak showers for the next hour or so, primary risk for thunderstorms is now east of the SC coast. ..Darrow.. 02/24/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0643 PM CST Fri Feb 23 2024 Valid 240100Z - 241200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm threat is decreasing along the South Carolina coast. Lightning will shift offshore soon. ...01z Update... Early-evening water-vapor imagery depicts a short-wave trough ejecting across the Carolinas. This feature appears partly responsible for convection that developed along/immediately behind a weak surface front that is advancing toward the coast. Primary risk of convection is shifting offshore quickly in response to the progressive short wave. While a lingering flash or two of lightning may accompany weak showers for the next hour or so, primary risk for thunderstorms is now east of the SC coast. ..Darrow.. 02/24/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0643 PM CST Fri Feb 23 2024 Valid 240100Z - 241200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm threat is decreasing along the South Carolina coast. Lightning will shift offshore soon. ...01z Update... Early-evening water-vapor imagery depicts a short-wave trough ejecting across the Carolinas. This feature appears partly responsible for convection that developed along/immediately behind a weak surface front that is advancing toward the coast. Primary risk of convection is shifting offshore quickly in response to the progressive short wave. While a lingering flash or two of lightning may accompany weak showers for the next hour or so, primary risk for thunderstorms is now east of the SC coast. ..Darrow.. 02/24/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0643 PM CST Fri Feb 23 2024 Valid 240100Z - 241200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm threat is decreasing along the South Carolina coast. Lightning will shift offshore soon. ...01z Update... Early-evening water-vapor imagery depicts a short-wave trough ejecting across the Carolinas. This feature appears partly responsible for convection that developed along/immediately behind a weak surface front that is advancing toward the coast. Primary risk of convection is shifting offshore quickly in response to the progressive short wave. While a lingering flash or two of lightning may accompany weak showers for the next hour or so, primary risk for thunderstorms is now east of the SC coast. ..Darrow.. 02/24/2024 Read more

No watches are valid as of Fri Feb 23 22:26:01 UTC 2024.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Feb 23 22:26:01 UTC 2024.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0308 PM CST Fri Feb 23 2024 Valid 251200Z - 021200Z A split-flow regime will be in place this weekend into early next week. An upper-level trough is forecast to dig into the Great Basin on Monday. Model trends with regard to this trough have been for it to be slightly faster, less amplified, and farther north. Even so, strong mid-level winds will be present across the central/southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. This trough will move into the Midwest/East by mid to late next week. At the surface, a cold front will move southward through the Plains into the northern Gulf coincident with the trough moving to the east. ...Southern High Plains... Despite some shortwave ridging aloft in the Southwest, a belt of stronger mid-level winds will develop through the day on Sunday across the southern Rockies. A modest lee trough should promote strong enough downslope winds to produce elevated to near critical fire weather in parts of eastern New Mexico and West Texas. Some concerns with the duration of critical fire weather limits confidence to only 40%. Farther north into southeastern Colorado, there is some potential for elevated fire weather to develop given the cross-Divide pressure gradient. However, there is enough uncertainty in the duration of these conditions combined with lesser fuel receptiveness to hold off highlights at this time. As the upper trough begins to dig into the Great Basin, stronger mid-level winds and a deeper lee trough should develop in the region. Critical fire weather appears to be most likely on Monday across a broad area. RH reductions may be impacted by mid/high-level cloud cover, but winds will still be quite strong nonetheless. Uncertainty increases by Tuesday across the region. Given the model trends in the progression/evolution of the trough, it is not clear what the temporal/spatial extent of the fire weather will be. Cloud cover will increase further from Monday and a cold front moving southward will quickly increase RH as it passes through. There will, however, be a strong pressure gradient ahead of the front with westerly, downslope winds possible for some period of time. A 40% area will be maintained this outlook despite the mentioned caveats. ..Wendt.. 02/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0308 PM CST Fri Feb 23 2024 Valid 251200Z - 021200Z A split-flow regime will be in place this weekend into early next week. An upper-level trough is forecast to dig into the Great Basin on Monday. Model trends with regard to this trough have been for it to be slightly faster, less amplified, and farther north. Even so, strong mid-level winds will be present across the central/southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. This trough will move into the Midwest/East by mid to late next week. At the surface, a cold front will move southward through the Plains into the northern Gulf coincident with the trough moving to the east. ...Southern High Plains... Despite some shortwave ridging aloft in the Southwest, a belt of stronger mid-level winds will develop through the day on Sunday across the southern Rockies. A modest lee trough should promote strong enough downslope winds to produce elevated to near critical fire weather in parts of eastern New Mexico and West Texas. Some concerns with the duration of critical fire weather limits confidence to only 40%. Farther north into southeastern Colorado, there is some potential for elevated fire weather to develop given the cross-Divide pressure gradient. However, there is enough uncertainty in the duration of these conditions combined with lesser fuel receptiveness to hold off highlights at this time. As the upper trough begins to dig into the Great Basin, stronger mid-level winds and a deeper lee trough should develop in the region. Critical fire weather appears to be most likely on Monday across a broad area. RH reductions may be impacted by mid/high-level cloud cover, but winds will still be quite strong nonetheless. Uncertainty increases by Tuesday across the region. Given the model trends in the progression/evolution of the trough, it is not clear what the temporal/spatial extent of the fire weather will be. Cloud cover will increase further from Monday and a cold front moving southward will quickly increase RH as it passes through. There will, however, be a strong pressure gradient ahead of the front with westerly, downslope winds possible for some period of time. A 40% area will be maintained this outlook despite the mentioned caveats. ..Wendt.. 02/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0308 PM CST Fri Feb 23 2024 Valid 251200Z - 021200Z A split-flow regime will be in place this weekend into early next week. An upper-level trough is forecast to dig into the Great Basin on Monday. Model trends with regard to this trough have been for it to be slightly faster, less amplified, and farther north. Even so, strong mid-level winds will be present across the central/southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. This trough will move into the Midwest/East by mid to late next week. At the surface, a cold front will move southward through the Plains into the northern Gulf coincident with the trough moving to the east. ...Southern High Plains... Despite some shortwave ridging aloft in the Southwest, a belt of stronger mid-level winds will develop through the day on Sunday across the southern Rockies. A modest lee trough should promote strong enough downslope winds to produce elevated to near critical fire weather in parts of eastern New Mexico and West Texas. Some concerns with the duration of critical fire weather limits confidence to only 40%. Farther north into southeastern Colorado, there is some potential for elevated fire weather to develop given the cross-Divide pressure gradient. However, there is enough uncertainty in the duration of these conditions combined with lesser fuel receptiveness to hold off highlights at this time. As the upper trough begins to dig into the Great Basin, stronger mid-level winds and a deeper lee trough should develop in the region. Critical fire weather appears to be most likely on Monday across a broad area. RH reductions may be impacted by mid/high-level cloud cover, but winds will still be quite strong nonetheless. Uncertainty increases by Tuesday across the region. Given the model trends in the progression/evolution of the trough, it is not clear what the temporal/spatial extent of the fire weather will be. Cloud cover will increase further from Monday and a cold front moving southward will quickly increase RH as it passes through. There will, however, be a strong pressure gradient ahead of the front with westerly, downslope winds possible for some period of time. A 40% area will be maintained this outlook despite the mentioned caveats. ..Wendt.. 02/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0308 PM CST Fri Feb 23 2024 Valid 251200Z - 021200Z A split-flow regime will be in place this weekend into early next week. An upper-level trough is forecast to dig into the Great Basin on Monday. Model trends with regard to this trough have been for it to be slightly faster, less amplified, and farther north. Even so, strong mid-level winds will be present across the central/southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. This trough will move into the Midwest/East by mid to late next week. At the surface, a cold front will move southward through the Plains into the northern Gulf coincident with the trough moving to the east. ...Southern High Plains... Despite some shortwave ridging aloft in the Southwest, a belt of stronger mid-level winds will develop through the day on Sunday across the southern Rockies. A modest lee trough should promote strong enough downslope winds to produce elevated to near critical fire weather in parts of eastern New Mexico and West Texas. Some concerns with the duration of critical fire weather limits confidence to only 40%. Farther north into southeastern Colorado, there is some potential for elevated fire weather to develop given the cross-Divide pressure gradient. However, there is enough uncertainty in the duration of these conditions combined with lesser fuel receptiveness to hold off highlights at this time. As the upper trough begins to dig into the Great Basin, stronger mid-level winds and a deeper lee trough should develop in the region. Critical fire weather appears to be most likely on Monday across a broad area. RH reductions may be impacted by mid/high-level cloud cover, but winds will still be quite strong nonetheless. Uncertainty increases by Tuesday across the region. Given the model trends in the progression/evolution of the trough, it is not clear what the temporal/spatial extent of the fire weather will be. Cloud cover will increase further from Monday and a cold front moving southward will quickly increase RH as it passes through. There will, however, be a strong pressure gradient ahead of the front with westerly, downslope winds possible for some period of time. A 40% area will be maintained this outlook despite the mentioned caveats. ..Wendt.. 02/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0308 PM CST Fri Feb 23 2024 Valid 251200Z - 021200Z A split-flow regime will be in place this weekend into early next week. An upper-level trough is forecast to dig into the Great Basin on Monday. Model trends with regard to this trough have been for it to be slightly faster, less amplified, and farther north. Even so, strong mid-level winds will be present across the central/southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. This trough will move into the Midwest/East by mid to late next week. At the surface, a cold front will move southward through the Plains into the northern Gulf coincident with the trough moving to the east. ...Southern High Plains... Despite some shortwave ridging aloft in the Southwest, a belt of stronger mid-level winds will develop through the day on Sunday across the southern Rockies. A modest lee trough should promote strong enough downslope winds to produce elevated to near critical fire weather in parts of eastern New Mexico and West Texas. Some concerns with the duration of critical fire weather limits confidence to only 40%. Farther north into southeastern Colorado, there is some potential for elevated fire weather to develop given the cross-Divide pressure gradient. However, there is enough uncertainty in the duration of these conditions combined with lesser fuel receptiveness to hold off highlights at this time. As the upper trough begins to dig into the Great Basin, stronger mid-level winds and a deeper lee trough should develop in the region. Critical fire weather appears to be most likely on Monday across a broad area. RH reductions may be impacted by mid/high-level cloud cover, but winds will still be quite strong nonetheless. Uncertainty increases by Tuesday across the region. Given the model trends in the progression/evolution of the trough, it is not clear what the temporal/spatial extent of the fire weather will be. Cloud cover will increase further from Monday and a cold front moving southward will quickly increase RH as it passes through. There will, however, be a strong pressure gradient ahead of the front with westerly, downslope winds possible for some period of time. A 40% area will be maintained this outlook despite the mentioned caveats. ..Wendt.. 02/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 PM CST Fri Feb 23 2024 Valid 232000Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe storms appears negligible across the U.S. through tonight. ...20Z Update... The primary, and increasing, thunderstorm development has become focused offshore, in a narrow pre-cold frontal corridor, downstream of one increasingly sheared short wave perturbation within broader-scale cyclonic, southwesterly mid-level flow. As this continues to overspread middle into southern Atlantic coastal areas late this afternoon through tonight, higher thunderstorm probabilities will remain offshore. However, near pre-frontal surface troughing still overspreading portions of northern Florida and southeastern Georgia into South Carolina, cooling aloft is contributing to steeping low-level lapse rates, with boundary-layer moisture sufficient to contribute to weak ongoing destabilization. This is already supporting the initiation of widely scattered weak thunderstorm development, which may persist across the South Carolina Piedmont into coastal plain, and portions of the southeast Georgia coastal plain vicinity, into early evening. West of the Appalachians, deepening convection is evident within a narrow plume of warmer low-level air/stronger boundary-layer heating spreading into the Allegheny and Cumberland Plateau vicinity. Lightning has recently been detected across parts of northwestern Alabama into northern middle Tennessee, and further convective development capable of generating occasional lightning beneath seasonably mid-level air remains possible. Based on various ensemble output and NAM/Rapid Refresh forecast soundings, this potential (though with probabilities generally near the minimum threshold for a categorical thunder area) may become maximized across parts of the Allegheny Plateau late this afternoon, perhaps aided by somewhat stronger mid/upper forcing for ascent overspreading that region. ..Kerr.. 02/23/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1003 AM CST Fri Feb 23 2024/ ...Carolinas... Morning surface analysis shows a low over VA with a trailing cold front extending southwestward into the Gulf Coast states. This front will sweep southeastward today across the Carolinas. Cloud cover is diminishing across SC ahead of the front, which should result in some heating/destabilization. However, this heating will be behind a pre-frontal trough, where veering surface winds are weakening low-level convergence and shear. Cold temperatures aloft and steep lapse rates may still result in a few afternoon thunderstorms, with small hail possible in the stronger cells. However, guidance appears less favorable for severe storms than earlier anticipated. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 PM CST Fri Feb 23 2024 Valid 232000Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe storms appears negligible across the U.S. through tonight. ...20Z Update... The primary, and increasing, thunderstorm development has become focused offshore, in a narrow pre-cold frontal corridor, downstream of one increasingly sheared short wave perturbation within broader-scale cyclonic, southwesterly mid-level flow. As this continues to overspread middle into southern Atlantic coastal areas late this afternoon through tonight, higher thunderstorm probabilities will remain offshore. However, near pre-frontal surface troughing still overspreading portions of northern Florida and southeastern Georgia into South Carolina, cooling aloft is contributing to steeping low-level lapse rates, with boundary-layer moisture sufficient to contribute to weak ongoing destabilization. This is already supporting the initiation of widely scattered weak thunderstorm development, which may persist across the South Carolina Piedmont into coastal plain, and portions of the southeast Georgia coastal plain vicinity, into early evening. West of the Appalachians, deepening convection is evident within a narrow plume of warmer low-level air/stronger boundary-layer heating spreading into the Allegheny and Cumberland Plateau vicinity. Lightning has recently been detected across parts of northwestern Alabama into northern middle Tennessee, and further convective development capable of generating occasional lightning beneath seasonably mid-level air remains possible. Based on various ensemble output and NAM/Rapid Refresh forecast soundings, this potential (though with probabilities generally near the minimum threshold for a categorical thunder area) may become maximized across parts of the Allegheny Plateau late this afternoon, perhaps aided by somewhat stronger mid/upper forcing for ascent overspreading that region. ..Kerr.. 02/23/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1003 AM CST Fri Feb 23 2024/ ...Carolinas... Morning surface analysis shows a low over VA with a trailing cold front extending southwestward into the Gulf Coast states. This front will sweep southeastward today across the Carolinas. Cloud cover is diminishing across SC ahead of the front, which should result in some heating/destabilization. However, this heating will be behind a pre-frontal trough, where veering surface winds are weakening low-level convergence and shear. Cold temperatures aloft and steep lapse rates may still result in a few afternoon thunderstorms, with small hail possible in the stronger cells. However, guidance appears less favorable for severe storms than earlier anticipated. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 PM CST Fri Feb 23 2024 Valid 232000Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe storms appears negligible across the U.S. through tonight. ...20Z Update... The primary, and increasing, thunderstorm development has become focused offshore, in a narrow pre-cold frontal corridor, downstream of one increasingly sheared short wave perturbation within broader-scale cyclonic, southwesterly mid-level flow. As this continues to overspread middle into southern Atlantic coastal areas late this afternoon through tonight, higher thunderstorm probabilities will remain offshore. However, near pre-frontal surface troughing still overspreading portions of northern Florida and southeastern Georgia into South Carolina, cooling aloft is contributing to steeping low-level lapse rates, with boundary-layer moisture sufficient to contribute to weak ongoing destabilization. This is already supporting the initiation of widely scattered weak thunderstorm development, which may persist across the South Carolina Piedmont into coastal plain, and portions of the southeast Georgia coastal plain vicinity, into early evening. West of the Appalachians, deepening convection is evident within a narrow plume of warmer low-level air/stronger boundary-layer heating spreading into the Allegheny and Cumberland Plateau vicinity. Lightning has recently been detected across parts of northwestern Alabama into northern middle Tennessee, and further convective development capable of generating occasional lightning beneath seasonably mid-level air remains possible. Based on various ensemble output and NAM/Rapid Refresh forecast soundings, this potential (though with probabilities generally near the minimum threshold for a categorical thunder area) may become maximized across parts of the Allegheny Plateau late this afternoon, perhaps aided by somewhat stronger mid/upper forcing for ascent overspreading that region. ..Kerr.. 02/23/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1003 AM CST Fri Feb 23 2024/ ...Carolinas... Morning surface analysis shows a low over VA with a trailing cold front extending southwestward into the Gulf Coast states. This front will sweep southeastward today across the Carolinas. Cloud cover is diminishing across SC ahead of the front, which should result in some heating/destabilization. However, this heating will be behind a pre-frontal trough, where veering surface winds are weakening low-level convergence and shear. Cold temperatures aloft and steep lapse rates may still result in a few afternoon thunderstorms, with small hail possible in the stronger cells. However, guidance appears less favorable for severe storms than earlier anticipated. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 PM CST Fri Feb 23 2024 Valid 232000Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe storms appears negligible across the U.S. through tonight. ...20Z Update... The primary, and increasing, thunderstorm development has become focused offshore, in a narrow pre-cold frontal corridor, downstream of one increasingly sheared short wave perturbation within broader-scale cyclonic, southwesterly mid-level flow. As this continues to overspread middle into southern Atlantic coastal areas late this afternoon through tonight, higher thunderstorm probabilities will remain offshore. However, near pre-frontal surface troughing still overspreading portions of northern Florida and southeastern Georgia into South Carolina, cooling aloft is contributing to steeping low-level lapse rates, with boundary-layer moisture sufficient to contribute to weak ongoing destabilization. This is already supporting the initiation of widely scattered weak thunderstorm development, which may persist across the South Carolina Piedmont into coastal plain, and portions of the southeast Georgia coastal plain vicinity, into early evening. West of the Appalachians, deepening convection is evident within a narrow plume of warmer low-level air/stronger boundary-layer heating spreading into the Allegheny and Cumberland Plateau vicinity. Lightning has recently been detected across parts of northwestern Alabama into northern middle Tennessee, and further convective development capable of generating occasional lightning beneath seasonably mid-level air remains possible. Based on various ensemble output and NAM/Rapid Refresh forecast soundings, this potential (though with probabilities generally near the minimum threshold for a categorical thunder area) may become maximized across parts of the Allegheny Plateau late this afternoon, perhaps aided by somewhat stronger mid/upper forcing for ascent overspreading that region. ..Kerr.. 02/23/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1003 AM CST Fri Feb 23 2024/ ...Carolinas... Morning surface analysis shows a low over VA with a trailing cold front extending southwestward into the Gulf Coast states. This front will sweep southeastward today across the Carolinas. Cloud cover is diminishing across SC ahead of the front, which should result in some heating/destabilization. However, this heating will be behind a pre-frontal trough, where veering surface winds are weakening low-level convergence and shear. Cold temperatures aloft and steep lapse rates may still result in a few afternoon thunderstorms, with small hail possible in the stronger cells. However, guidance appears less favorable for severe storms than earlier anticipated. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 PM CST Fri Feb 23 2024 Valid 232000Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe storms appears negligible across the U.S. through tonight. ...20Z Update... The primary, and increasing, thunderstorm development has become focused offshore, in a narrow pre-cold frontal corridor, downstream of one increasingly sheared short wave perturbation within broader-scale cyclonic, southwesterly mid-level flow. As this continues to overspread middle into southern Atlantic coastal areas late this afternoon through tonight, higher thunderstorm probabilities will remain offshore. However, near pre-frontal surface troughing still overspreading portions of northern Florida and southeastern Georgia into South Carolina, cooling aloft is contributing to steeping low-level lapse rates, with boundary-layer moisture sufficient to contribute to weak ongoing destabilization. This is already supporting the initiation of widely scattered weak thunderstorm development, which may persist across the South Carolina Piedmont into coastal plain, and portions of the southeast Georgia coastal plain vicinity, into early evening. West of the Appalachians, deepening convection is evident within a narrow plume of warmer low-level air/stronger boundary-layer heating spreading into the Allegheny and Cumberland Plateau vicinity. Lightning has recently been detected across parts of northwestern Alabama into northern middle Tennessee, and further convective development capable of generating occasional lightning beneath seasonably mid-level air remains possible. Based on various ensemble output and NAM/Rapid Refresh forecast soundings, this potential (though with probabilities generally near the minimum threshold for a categorical thunder area) may become maximized across parts of the Allegheny Plateau late this afternoon, perhaps aided by somewhat stronger mid/upper forcing for ascent overspreading that region. ..Kerr.. 02/23/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1003 AM CST Fri Feb 23 2024/ ...Carolinas... Morning surface analysis shows a low over VA with a trailing cold front extending southwestward into the Gulf Coast states. This front will sweep southeastward today across the Carolinas. Cloud cover is diminishing across SC ahead of the front, which should result in some heating/destabilization. However, this heating will be behind a pre-frontal trough, where veering surface winds are weakening low-level convergence and shear. Cold temperatures aloft and steep lapse rates may still result in a few afternoon thunderstorms, with small hail possible in the stronger cells. However, guidance appears less favorable for severe storms than earlier anticipated. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 PM CST Fri Feb 23 2024 Valid 232000Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe storms appears negligible across the U.S. through tonight. ...20Z Update... The primary, and increasing, thunderstorm development has become focused offshore, in a narrow pre-cold frontal corridor, downstream of one increasingly sheared short wave perturbation within broader-scale cyclonic, southwesterly mid-level flow. As this continues to overspread middle into southern Atlantic coastal areas late this afternoon through tonight, higher thunderstorm probabilities will remain offshore. However, near pre-frontal surface troughing still overspreading portions of northern Florida and southeastern Georgia into South Carolina, cooling aloft is contributing to steeping low-level lapse rates, with boundary-layer moisture sufficient to contribute to weak ongoing destabilization. This is already supporting the initiation of widely scattered weak thunderstorm development, which may persist across the South Carolina Piedmont into coastal plain, and portions of the southeast Georgia coastal plain vicinity, into early evening. West of the Appalachians, deepening convection is evident within a narrow plume of warmer low-level air/stronger boundary-layer heating spreading into the Allegheny and Cumberland Plateau vicinity. Lightning has recently been detected across parts of northwestern Alabama into northern middle Tennessee, and further convective development capable of generating occasional lightning beneath seasonably mid-level air remains possible. Based on various ensemble output and NAM/Rapid Refresh forecast soundings, this potential (though with probabilities generally near the minimum threshold for a categorical thunder area) may become maximized across parts of the Allegheny Plateau late this afternoon, perhaps aided by somewhat stronger mid/upper forcing for ascent overspreading that region. ..Kerr.. 02/23/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1003 AM CST Fri Feb 23 2024/ ...Carolinas... Morning surface analysis shows a low over VA with a trailing cold front extending southwestward into the Gulf Coast states. This front will sweep southeastward today across the Carolinas. Cloud cover is diminishing across SC ahead of the front, which should result in some heating/destabilization. However, this heating will be behind a pre-frontal trough, where veering surface winds are weakening low-level convergence and shear. Cold temperatures aloft and steep lapse rates may still result in a few afternoon thunderstorms, with small hail possible in the stronger cells. However, guidance appears less favorable for severe storms than earlier anticipated. Read more

MD 0157 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA
Mesoscale Discussion 0157 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CST Fri Feb 23 2024 Areas affected...northern Florida into southeast Georgia and southern South Carolina Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 231725Z - 232030Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...A gradual increase in convective coverage is possible over the next several hours, and localized strong gusts may occur. DISCUSSION...A strong upper trough with cooling aloft continues to rapidly overspread the region, with a cold front now extending from central SC into the FL Panhandle. A narrow plume of warming temperatures and dewpoints to around 60 F extend from the FL Panhandle across southeast GA and toward southern SC, and is contributing to up to 500 J/kg SBCAPE. Modified soundings from the area depict generally shallow storm potential, however, if cooling aloft can remove the midlevel warm layer prior to the cold front moving offshore, a brief period may exist for deeper convection. Given the strong deep-layer wind fields, but generally weak instability, localized wind damage would appear to be the main concern. ..Jewell/Hart.. 02/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC...TAE... LAT...LON 30248148 30138246 30128256 30228292 30418318 30708341 31018342 31328332 31568289 31838239 32588165 33718090 33568021 33157970 32727976 32398033 32008076 31588109 31028134 30668137 30248148 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0136 PM CST Fri Feb 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Dry and breezy conditions remain probable across the southern High Plains into parts of the central Plains. General lack of fuel receptiveness will keep concerns localized. Ahead of a secondary cold front, dry and windy conditions also can be anticipated in parts of the Southeast. Winds of 15-20 mph (with greater gusts) will coincide with RH that could fall below 30%. Fuels appear to be marginally dry, though perhaps drier than usual for this time of year. Without greater confidence in sufficiently dry fuels, only locally elevated conditions are expected. ..Wendt.. 02/23/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0152 AM CST Fri Feb 23 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level ridge will build in across the western US with downstream troughing across the east D2/Saturday through the remainder of the weekend. Surface high pressure over the Plains will slowly weaken allowing for increasing winds through the day. Southerly dry return flow will increase across the southern High Plains and breezy northwest flow is expected in the lee of the Rockies and central High Plains. While breezy, poor overlap of gusty winds, low humidity and dry fuels is expected. As such, fire weather concerns will remain low for much of the CONUS. Locally dry and breezy conditions are possible across parts of the northern/central Plains and central TX. However, fuels across these regions are less receptive to fire spread suggesting fire-weather concerns will remain localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0136 PM CST Fri Feb 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Dry and breezy conditions remain probable across the southern High Plains into parts of the central Plains. General lack of fuel receptiveness will keep concerns localized. Ahead of a secondary cold front, dry and windy conditions also can be anticipated in parts of the Southeast. Winds of 15-20 mph (with greater gusts) will coincide with RH that could fall below 30%. Fuels appear to be marginally dry, though perhaps drier than usual for this time of year. Without greater confidence in sufficiently dry fuels, only locally elevated conditions are expected. ..Wendt.. 02/23/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0152 AM CST Fri Feb 23 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level ridge will build in across the western US with downstream troughing across the east D2/Saturday through the remainder of the weekend. Surface high pressure over the Plains will slowly weaken allowing for increasing winds through the day. Southerly dry return flow will increase across the southern High Plains and breezy northwest flow is expected in the lee of the Rockies and central High Plains. While breezy, poor overlap of gusty winds, low humidity and dry fuels is expected. As such, fire weather concerns will remain low for much of the CONUS. Locally dry and breezy conditions are possible across parts of the northern/central Plains and central TX. However, fuels across these regions are less receptive to fire spread suggesting fire-weather concerns will remain localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more