Severe Storms

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CST Sat Feb 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...Synopsis... Broad northwesterly flow aloft will continue to strengthen over much of the western and central US through D2/Sunday. At the surface, a lee trough/low will intensify over parts of TX and OK helping to increase surface winds farther west. Dry and breezy conditions should promote elevated to near-critical fire-weather concerns over the southern High Plains and Southwest D2/Sunday. ...Southwest and southern High Plains... Stronger northwest flow aloft will gradually increase over parts of the Southwest and southern High Plains through D2/Sunday. Downslope flow is expected behind a weak lee low over parts of central and north TX. Aided by the stronger flow aloft, gusty surface winds of 20-25 mph are possible across parts of eastern NM and west TX. Afternoon RH values below 20% will also be likely along with warm temperatures. With little rain over this area in the past several weeks, emerging dryness within area fuels is expected to support a risk for elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions through the afternoon hours. Gusty winds and poor humidity recoveries may continue overnight and into early D3/Monday. ..Lyons.. 02/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CST Sat Feb 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...Synopsis... Broad northwesterly flow aloft will continue to strengthen over much of the western and central US through D2/Sunday. At the surface, a lee trough/low will intensify over parts of TX and OK helping to increase surface winds farther west. Dry and breezy conditions should promote elevated to near-critical fire-weather concerns over the southern High Plains and Southwest D2/Sunday. ...Southwest and southern High Plains... Stronger northwest flow aloft will gradually increase over parts of the Southwest and southern High Plains through D2/Sunday. Downslope flow is expected behind a weak lee low over parts of central and north TX. Aided by the stronger flow aloft, gusty surface winds of 20-25 mph are possible across parts of eastern NM and west TX. Afternoon RH values below 20% will also be likely along with warm temperatures. With little rain over this area in the past several weeks, emerging dryness within area fuels is expected to support a risk for elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions through the afternoon hours. Gusty winds and poor humidity recoveries may continue overnight and into early D3/Monday. ..Lyons.. 02/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CST Sat Feb 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...Synopsis... Broad northwesterly flow aloft will continue to strengthen over much of the western and central US through D2/Sunday. At the surface, a lee trough/low will intensify over parts of TX and OK helping to increase surface winds farther west. Dry and breezy conditions should promote elevated to near-critical fire-weather concerns over the southern High Plains and Southwest D2/Sunday. ...Southwest and southern High Plains... Stronger northwest flow aloft will gradually increase over parts of the Southwest and southern High Plains through D2/Sunday. Downslope flow is expected behind a weak lee low over parts of central and north TX. Aided by the stronger flow aloft, gusty surface winds of 20-25 mph are possible across parts of eastern NM and west TX. Afternoon RH values below 20% will also be likely along with warm temperatures. With little rain over this area in the past several weeks, emerging dryness within area fuels is expected to support a risk for elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions through the afternoon hours. Gusty winds and poor humidity recoveries may continue overnight and into early D3/Monday. ..Lyons.. 02/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CST Sat Feb 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...Synopsis... Broad northwesterly flow aloft will continue to strengthen over much of the western and central US through D2/Sunday. At the surface, a lee trough/low will intensify over parts of TX and OK helping to increase surface winds farther west. Dry and breezy conditions should promote elevated to near-critical fire-weather concerns over the southern High Plains and Southwest D2/Sunday. ...Southwest and southern High Plains... Stronger northwest flow aloft will gradually increase over parts of the Southwest and southern High Plains through D2/Sunday. Downslope flow is expected behind a weak lee low over parts of central and north TX. Aided by the stronger flow aloft, gusty surface winds of 20-25 mph are possible across parts of eastern NM and west TX. Afternoon RH values below 20% will also be likely along with warm temperatures. With little rain over this area in the past several weeks, emerging dryness within area fuels is expected to support a risk for elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions through the afternoon hours. Gusty winds and poor humidity recoveries may continue overnight and into early D3/Monday. ..Lyons.. 02/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CST Sat Feb 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...Synopsis... Broad northwesterly flow aloft will continue to strengthen over much of the western and central US through D2/Sunday. At the surface, a lee trough/low will intensify over parts of TX and OK helping to increase surface winds farther west. Dry and breezy conditions should promote elevated to near-critical fire-weather concerns over the southern High Plains and Southwest D2/Sunday. ...Southwest and southern High Plains... Stronger northwest flow aloft will gradually increase over parts of the Southwest and southern High Plains through D2/Sunday. Downslope flow is expected behind a weak lee low over parts of central and north TX. Aided by the stronger flow aloft, gusty surface winds of 20-25 mph are possible across parts of eastern NM and west TX. Afternoon RH values below 20% will also be likely along with warm temperatures. With little rain over this area in the past several weeks, emerging dryness within area fuels is expected to support a risk for elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions through the afternoon hours. Gusty winds and poor humidity recoveries may continue overnight and into early D3/Monday. ..Lyons.. 02/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 AM CST Sat Feb 24 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Northwesterly flow aloft is expected across the western and central CONUS in the wake of a departing eastern US trough and surface cold front. Building high pressure should keep winds modest over the central US. However, stronger surface winds are expected along the fringes of the high across the Plains and Gulf Coast. Some fire-weather concerns are possible, though limited overlap with dry fuels should keep conditions localized. ...Central/Southern High Plains... While high pressure settles over the eastern half of the US and into the Great Basin, strong downslope winds are expected to develop in the lee of the Rockies to the West. Aided by increasingly strong northwesterly flow aloft and a subtle lee trough, gusty surface winds of 20-25 mph are possible. Somewhat drier conditions are also expected with minimum RH values as low as 20-25% briefly possible through the afternoon hours. Elevated to locally critical meteorological conditions appear likely across parts of CO, KS, NM and NE through this afternoon. However, fuels are only partially receptive to fire spread. This suggests fire-weather concerns should remain more localized. ...Southeast... As offshore flow continues behind the departing cold front, gusty afternoon winds of 10-15 mph are possible over parts of the Southeast and Gulf Coast. Coincident with drier than normal conditions and RH values below 30%, some locally elevated conditions are possible. However, recent rainfall should keep any fire-weather concerns localized due to limited overlap with only marginally dry fuels. ..Lyons.. 02/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 AM CST Sat Feb 24 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Northwesterly flow aloft is expected across the western and central CONUS in the wake of a departing eastern US trough and surface cold front. Building high pressure should keep winds modest over the central US. However, stronger surface winds are expected along the fringes of the high across the Plains and Gulf Coast. Some fire-weather concerns are possible, though limited overlap with dry fuels should keep conditions localized. ...Central/Southern High Plains... While high pressure settles over the eastern half of the US and into the Great Basin, strong downslope winds are expected to develop in the lee of the Rockies to the West. Aided by increasingly strong northwesterly flow aloft and a subtle lee trough, gusty surface winds of 20-25 mph are possible. Somewhat drier conditions are also expected with minimum RH values as low as 20-25% briefly possible through the afternoon hours. Elevated to locally critical meteorological conditions appear likely across parts of CO, KS, NM and NE through this afternoon. However, fuels are only partially receptive to fire spread. This suggests fire-weather concerns should remain more localized. ...Southeast... As offshore flow continues behind the departing cold front, gusty afternoon winds of 10-15 mph are possible over parts of the Southeast and Gulf Coast. Coincident with drier than normal conditions and RH values below 30%, some locally elevated conditions are possible. However, recent rainfall should keep any fire-weather concerns localized due to limited overlap with only marginally dry fuels. ..Lyons.. 02/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 AM CST Sat Feb 24 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Northwesterly flow aloft is expected across the western and central CONUS in the wake of a departing eastern US trough and surface cold front. Building high pressure should keep winds modest over the central US. However, stronger surface winds are expected along the fringes of the high across the Plains and Gulf Coast. Some fire-weather concerns are possible, though limited overlap with dry fuels should keep conditions localized. ...Central/Southern High Plains... While high pressure settles over the eastern half of the US and into the Great Basin, strong downslope winds are expected to develop in the lee of the Rockies to the West. Aided by increasingly strong northwesterly flow aloft and a subtle lee trough, gusty surface winds of 20-25 mph are possible. Somewhat drier conditions are also expected with minimum RH values as low as 20-25% briefly possible through the afternoon hours. Elevated to locally critical meteorological conditions appear likely across parts of CO, KS, NM and NE through this afternoon. However, fuels are only partially receptive to fire spread. This suggests fire-weather concerns should remain more localized. ...Southeast... As offshore flow continues behind the departing cold front, gusty afternoon winds of 10-15 mph are possible over parts of the Southeast and Gulf Coast. Coincident with drier than normal conditions and RH values below 30%, some locally elevated conditions are possible. However, recent rainfall should keep any fire-weather concerns localized due to limited overlap with only marginally dry fuels. ..Lyons.. 02/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 AM CST Sat Feb 24 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Northwesterly flow aloft is expected across the western and central CONUS in the wake of a departing eastern US trough and surface cold front. Building high pressure should keep winds modest over the central US. However, stronger surface winds are expected along the fringes of the high across the Plains and Gulf Coast. Some fire-weather concerns are possible, though limited overlap with dry fuels should keep conditions localized. ...Central/Southern High Plains... While high pressure settles over the eastern half of the US and into the Great Basin, strong downslope winds are expected to develop in the lee of the Rockies to the West. Aided by increasingly strong northwesterly flow aloft and a subtle lee trough, gusty surface winds of 20-25 mph are possible. Somewhat drier conditions are also expected with minimum RH values as low as 20-25% briefly possible through the afternoon hours. Elevated to locally critical meteorological conditions appear likely across parts of CO, KS, NM and NE through this afternoon. However, fuels are only partially receptive to fire spread. This suggests fire-weather concerns should remain more localized. ...Southeast... As offshore flow continues behind the departing cold front, gusty afternoon winds of 10-15 mph are possible over parts of the Southeast and Gulf Coast. Coincident with drier than normal conditions and RH values below 30%, some locally elevated conditions are possible. However, recent rainfall should keep any fire-weather concerns localized due to limited overlap with only marginally dry fuels. ..Lyons.. 02/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 AM CST Sat Feb 24 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Northwesterly flow aloft is expected across the western and central CONUS in the wake of a departing eastern US trough and surface cold front. Building high pressure should keep winds modest over the central US. However, stronger surface winds are expected along the fringes of the high across the Plains and Gulf Coast. Some fire-weather concerns are possible, though limited overlap with dry fuels should keep conditions localized. ...Central/Southern High Plains... While high pressure settles over the eastern half of the US and into the Great Basin, strong downslope winds are expected to develop in the lee of the Rockies to the West. Aided by increasingly strong northwesterly flow aloft and a subtle lee trough, gusty surface winds of 20-25 mph are possible. Somewhat drier conditions are also expected with minimum RH values as low as 20-25% briefly possible through the afternoon hours. Elevated to locally critical meteorological conditions appear likely across parts of CO, KS, NM and NE through this afternoon. However, fuels are only partially receptive to fire spread. This suggests fire-weather concerns should remain more localized. ...Southeast... As offshore flow continues behind the departing cold front, gusty afternoon winds of 10-15 mph are possible over parts of the Southeast and Gulf Coast. Coincident with drier than normal conditions and RH values below 30%, some locally elevated conditions are possible. However, recent rainfall should keep any fire-weather concerns localized due to limited overlap with only marginally dry fuels. ..Lyons.. 02/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 AM CST Sat Feb 24 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Northwesterly flow aloft is expected across the western and central CONUS in the wake of a departing eastern US trough and surface cold front. Building high pressure should keep winds modest over the central US. However, stronger surface winds are expected along the fringes of the high across the Plains and Gulf Coast. Some fire-weather concerns are possible, though limited overlap with dry fuels should keep conditions localized. ...Central/Southern High Plains... While high pressure settles over the eastern half of the US and into the Great Basin, strong downslope winds are expected to develop in the lee of the Rockies to the West. Aided by increasingly strong northwesterly flow aloft and a subtle lee trough, gusty surface winds of 20-25 mph are possible. Somewhat drier conditions are also expected with minimum RH values as low as 20-25% briefly possible through the afternoon hours. Elevated to locally critical meteorological conditions appear likely across parts of CO, KS, NM and NE through this afternoon. However, fuels are only partially receptive to fire spread. This suggests fire-weather concerns should remain more localized. ...Southeast... As offshore flow continues behind the departing cold front, gusty afternoon winds of 10-15 mph are possible over parts of the Southeast and Gulf Coast. Coincident with drier than normal conditions and RH values below 30%, some locally elevated conditions are possible. However, recent rainfall should keep any fire-weather concerns localized due to limited overlap with only marginally dry fuels. ..Lyons.. 02/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1154 PM CST Fri Feb 23 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential appears low on Sunday. ...Synopsis... Northwesterly mid/upper-level flow will cover most of the CONUS on Sunday. A mid/upper-level low is expected to remain nearly stationary offshore of Baja California, while a northern-stream trough is forecast to dig southeastward across the Pacific Northwest late in the period. Generally dry and stable conditions should limit thunderstorm potential across most of the CONUS. Some weak destabilization will be possible across parts of northern CA during the afternoon, but in the absence of stronger large-scale ascent, coverage of thunderstorm potential appears quite limited at this time. Low-topped convection will accompany the digging trough across the Pacific Northwest on Sunday night, but with only very meager instability, coverage of any thunderstorm threat appears limited in this area as well. Modest low-level moisture will begin to return to parts of TX Sunday night, but negligible forcing is expected to limit elevated thunderstorm potential. ..Dean.. 02/24/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1154 PM CST Fri Feb 23 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential appears low on Sunday. ...Synopsis... Northwesterly mid/upper-level flow will cover most of the CONUS on Sunday. A mid/upper-level low is expected to remain nearly stationary offshore of Baja California, while a northern-stream trough is forecast to dig southeastward across the Pacific Northwest late in the period. Generally dry and stable conditions should limit thunderstorm potential across most of the CONUS. Some weak destabilization will be possible across parts of northern CA during the afternoon, but in the absence of stronger large-scale ascent, coverage of thunderstorm potential appears quite limited at this time. Low-topped convection will accompany the digging trough across the Pacific Northwest on Sunday night, but with only very meager instability, coverage of any thunderstorm threat appears limited in this area as well. Modest low-level moisture will begin to return to parts of TX Sunday night, but negligible forcing is expected to limit elevated thunderstorm potential. ..Dean.. 02/24/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1154 PM CST Fri Feb 23 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential appears low on Sunday. ...Synopsis... Northwesterly mid/upper-level flow will cover most of the CONUS on Sunday. A mid/upper-level low is expected to remain nearly stationary offshore of Baja California, while a northern-stream trough is forecast to dig southeastward across the Pacific Northwest late in the period. Generally dry and stable conditions should limit thunderstorm potential across most of the CONUS. Some weak destabilization will be possible across parts of northern CA during the afternoon, but in the absence of stronger large-scale ascent, coverage of thunderstorm potential appears quite limited at this time. Low-topped convection will accompany the digging trough across the Pacific Northwest on Sunday night, but with only very meager instability, coverage of any thunderstorm threat appears limited in this area as well. Modest low-level moisture will begin to return to parts of TX Sunday night, but negligible forcing is expected to limit elevated thunderstorm potential. ..Dean.. 02/24/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1154 PM CST Fri Feb 23 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential appears low on Sunday. ...Synopsis... Northwesterly mid/upper-level flow will cover most of the CONUS on Sunday. A mid/upper-level low is expected to remain nearly stationary offshore of Baja California, while a northern-stream trough is forecast to dig southeastward across the Pacific Northwest late in the period. Generally dry and stable conditions should limit thunderstorm potential across most of the CONUS. Some weak destabilization will be possible across parts of northern CA during the afternoon, but in the absence of stronger large-scale ascent, coverage of thunderstorm potential appears quite limited at this time. Low-topped convection will accompany the digging trough across the Pacific Northwest on Sunday night, but with only very meager instability, coverage of any thunderstorm threat appears limited in this area as well. Modest low-level moisture will begin to return to parts of TX Sunday night, but negligible forcing is expected to limit elevated thunderstorm potential. ..Dean.. 02/24/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1154 PM CST Fri Feb 23 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential appears low on Sunday. ...Synopsis... Northwesterly mid/upper-level flow will cover most of the CONUS on Sunday. A mid/upper-level low is expected to remain nearly stationary offshore of Baja California, while a northern-stream trough is forecast to dig southeastward across the Pacific Northwest late in the period. Generally dry and stable conditions should limit thunderstorm potential across most of the CONUS. Some weak destabilization will be possible across parts of northern CA during the afternoon, but in the absence of stronger large-scale ascent, coverage of thunderstorm potential appears quite limited at this time. Low-topped convection will accompany the digging trough across the Pacific Northwest on Sunday night, but with only very meager instability, coverage of any thunderstorm threat appears limited in this area as well. Modest low-level moisture will begin to return to parts of TX Sunday night, but negligible forcing is expected to limit elevated thunderstorm potential. ..Dean.. 02/24/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 PM CST Fri Feb 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Carolinas this afternoon. ...Carolinas... Notable midlevel short-wave trough is currently located over northern IL. This feature is forecast to advance into the southern Appalachians by 18z, as a 90kt 500mb speed max translates across western TN into northwest GA, then off the GA Coast by early evening. Very cold midlevel temperatures will overspread the southern Appalachians/Carolinas where 500mb values will approach -30C. This will contribute to steep surface-6km lapse rates (8 C/km) within deep west-northwesterly flow regime. While surface dew points will remain poor, along with seasonally low PW values, SBCAPE should be on the order of 200 J/kg. This will be adequate for updrafts capable of penetrating levels necessary for lightning discharge. Any lightning should be affiliated with diurnally-enhanced convection. Thunderstorms will quickly wane/migrate off the coast by early evening. ..Darrow/Lyons.. 02/24/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 PM CST Fri Feb 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Carolinas this afternoon. ...Carolinas... Notable midlevel short-wave trough is currently located over northern IL. This feature is forecast to advance into the southern Appalachians by 18z, as a 90kt 500mb speed max translates across western TN into northwest GA, then off the GA Coast by early evening. Very cold midlevel temperatures will overspread the southern Appalachians/Carolinas where 500mb values will approach -30C. This will contribute to steep surface-6km lapse rates (8 C/km) within deep west-northwesterly flow regime. While surface dew points will remain poor, along with seasonally low PW values, SBCAPE should be on the order of 200 J/kg. This will be adequate for updrafts capable of penetrating levels necessary for lightning discharge. Any lightning should be affiliated with diurnally-enhanced convection. Thunderstorms will quickly wane/migrate off the coast by early evening. ..Darrow/Lyons.. 02/24/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 PM CST Fri Feb 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Carolinas this afternoon. ...Carolinas... Notable midlevel short-wave trough is currently located over northern IL. This feature is forecast to advance into the southern Appalachians by 18z, as a 90kt 500mb speed max translates across western TN into northwest GA, then off the GA Coast by early evening. Very cold midlevel temperatures will overspread the southern Appalachians/Carolinas where 500mb values will approach -30C. This will contribute to steep surface-6km lapse rates (8 C/km) within deep west-northwesterly flow regime. While surface dew points will remain poor, along with seasonally low PW values, SBCAPE should be on the order of 200 J/kg. This will be adequate for updrafts capable of penetrating levels necessary for lightning discharge. Any lightning should be affiliated with diurnally-enhanced convection. Thunderstorms will quickly wane/migrate off the coast by early evening. ..Darrow/Lyons.. 02/24/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 PM CST Fri Feb 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Carolinas this afternoon. ...Carolinas... Notable midlevel short-wave trough is currently located over northern IL. This feature is forecast to advance into the southern Appalachians by 18z, as a 90kt 500mb speed max translates across western TN into northwest GA, then off the GA Coast by early evening. Very cold midlevel temperatures will overspread the southern Appalachians/Carolinas where 500mb values will approach -30C. This will contribute to steep surface-6km lapse rates (8 C/km) within deep west-northwesterly flow regime. While surface dew points will remain poor, along with seasonally low PW values, SBCAPE should be on the order of 200 J/kg. This will be adequate for updrafts capable of penetrating levels necessary for lightning discharge. Any lightning should be affiliated with diurnally-enhanced convection. Thunderstorms will quickly wane/migrate off the coast by early evening. ..Darrow/Lyons.. 02/24/2024 Read more