Severe Storms

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0136 PM CST Fri Feb 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Dry and breezy conditions remain probable across the southern High Plains into parts of the central Plains. General lack of fuel receptiveness will keep concerns localized. Ahead of a secondary cold front, dry and windy conditions also can be anticipated in parts of the Southeast. Winds of 15-20 mph (with greater gusts) will coincide with RH that could fall below 30%. Fuels appear to be marginally dry, though perhaps drier than usual for this time of year. Without greater confidence in sufficiently dry fuels, only locally elevated conditions are expected. ..Wendt.. 02/23/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0152 AM CST Fri Feb 23 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level ridge will build in across the western US with downstream troughing across the east D2/Saturday through the remainder of the weekend. Surface high pressure over the Plains will slowly weaken allowing for increasing winds through the day. Southerly dry return flow will increase across the southern High Plains and breezy northwest flow is expected in the lee of the Rockies and central High Plains. While breezy, poor overlap of gusty winds, low humidity and dry fuels is expected. As such, fire weather concerns will remain low for much of the CONUS. Locally dry and breezy conditions are possible across parts of the northern/central Plains and central TX. However, fuels across these regions are less receptive to fire spread suggesting fire-weather concerns will remain localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0136 PM CST Fri Feb 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Dry and breezy conditions remain probable across the southern High Plains into parts of the central Plains. General lack of fuel receptiveness will keep concerns localized. Ahead of a secondary cold front, dry and windy conditions also can be anticipated in parts of the Southeast. Winds of 15-20 mph (with greater gusts) will coincide with RH that could fall below 30%. Fuels appear to be marginally dry, though perhaps drier than usual for this time of year. Without greater confidence in sufficiently dry fuels, only locally elevated conditions are expected. ..Wendt.. 02/23/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0152 AM CST Fri Feb 23 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level ridge will build in across the western US with downstream troughing across the east D2/Saturday through the remainder of the weekend. Surface high pressure over the Plains will slowly weaken allowing for increasing winds through the day. Southerly dry return flow will increase across the southern High Plains and breezy northwest flow is expected in the lee of the Rockies and central High Plains. While breezy, poor overlap of gusty winds, low humidity and dry fuels is expected. As such, fire weather concerns will remain low for much of the CONUS. Locally dry and breezy conditions are possible across parts of the northern/central Plains and central TX. However, fuels across these regions are less receptive to fire spread suggesting fire-weather concerns will remain localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0136 PM CST Fri Feb 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Dry and breezy conditions remain probable across the southern High Plains into parts of the central Plains. General lack of fuel receptiveness will keep concerns localized. Ahead of a secondary cold front, dry and windy conditions also can be anticipated in parts of the Southeast. Winds of 15-20 mph (with greater gusts) will coincide with RH that could fall below 30%. Fuels appear to be marginally dry, though perhaps drier than usual for this time of year. Without greater confidence in sufficiently dry fuels, only locally elevated conditions are expected. ..Wendt.. 02/23/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0152 AM CST Fri Feb 23 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level ridge will build in across the western US with downstream troughing across the east D2/Saturday through the remainder of the weekend. Surface high pressure over the Plains will slowly weaken allowing for increasing winds through the day. Southerly dry return flow will increase across the southern High Plains and breezy northwest flow is expected in the lee of the Rockies and central High Plains. While breezy, poor overlap of gusty winds, low humidity and dry fuels is expected. As such, fire weather concerns will remain low for much of the CONUS. Locally dry and breezy conditions are possible across parts of the northern/central Plains and central TX. However, fuels across these regions are less receptive to fire spread suggesting fire-weather concerns will remain localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0136 PM CST Fri Feb 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Dry and breezy conditions remain probable across the southern High Plains into parts of the central Plains. General lack of fuel receptiveness will keep concerns localized. Ahead of a secondary cold front, dry and windy conditions also can be anticipated in parts of the Southeast. Winds of 15-20 mph (with greater gusts) will coincide with RH that could fall below 30%. Fuels appear to be marginally dry, though perhaps drier than usual for this time of year. Without greater confidence in sufficiently dry fuels, only locally elevated conditions are expected. ..Wendt.. 02/23/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0152 AM CST Fri Feb 23 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level ridge will build in across the western US with downstream troughing across the east D2/Saturday through the remainder of the weekend. Surface high pressure over the Plains will slowly weaken allowing for increasing winds through the day. Southerly dry return flow will increase across the southern High Plains and breezy northwest flow is expected in the lee of the Rockies and central High Plains. While breezy, poor overlap of gusty winds, low humidity and dry fuels is expected. As such, fire weather concerns will remain low for much of the CONUS. Locally dry and breezy conditions are possible across parts of the northern/central Plains and central TX. However, fuels across these regions are less receptive to fire spread suggesting fire-weather concerns will remain localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CST Fri Feb 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Carolinas Saturday afternoon, but the risk of severe weather currently appears negligible. ...Synopsis... A more prominent blocking regime is evolving across the southern mid-latitude and subtropical eastern Pacific, with split belts of stronger westerlies becoming broadly confluent into/across the North American Pacific coast. Downstream, an initially amplified regime, including large-scale mid/upper troughing across much of eastern North America, may begin to slowly trend more zonal by the end of the period. While one vigorous embedded short wave impulse of Arctic origins turns eastward across the St. Lawrence Valley through the Canadian Maritimes, a couple of consolidating trailing perturbations (also emanating from the Arctic) are forecast to continue digging southeast of the lower Ohio Valley through the southern Mid Atlantic coast vicinity, before turning eastward into the Atlantic. Associated with these developments, in lower levels, models indicate that modifying Arctic air will be in the process of overspreading New England and northern Mid Atlantic coastal areas by daybreak Saturday, with a secondary surge overspreading the southern Appalachians and much of the Southeast Saturday afternoon through Saturday night. This will be preceded by a more modest surface front, initially stalling across the Canadian Maritimes, while advancing southeast of the Florida Peninsula, and well away from much of the remainder of the southern Atlantic Seaboard by early Saturday. In the wake of this lead front, low-level drying appears likely to continue across the southeastern Gulf of Mexico into the Caribbean. Generally dry conditions likely will prevail across much of the remainder of the Gulf Basin, though models suggest that some boundary-layer modification/moistening may slowly commence in a narrow corridor near the Mexican/northwestern Gulf coast vicinity. ...Carolinas... While boundary-layer moisture content will remain relatively low, insolation likely will contribute to steep low-level lapse rates ahead of the reinforcing cold front, and beneath a cold mid-level environment across most areas south and east of the southern Appalachians by Saturday afternoon. As a 70-90 kt mid-level jet streak (associated with the approaching Arctic impulse) noses toward the southern Atlantic coast, models suggest that forcing for ascent and cold advection may contribute to 500 mb temperatures cooling to as low as -28 to -30 C across the Carolinas Saturday afternoon. It appears that this will contribute to sufficient destabilization to support low topped thunderstorm development, initiating over the higher terrain before spreading east-southeastward into the coastal plain by early Saturday evening. Based on forecasting soundings, the risk for severe weather appears low. However, it may not be entirely out of the question that stronger cells could produce small hail or graupel and perhaps scattered gusts up to around 30-40 kt. ..Kerr.. 02/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CST Fri Feb 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Carolinas Saturday afternoon, but the risk of severe weather currently appears negligible. ...Synopsis... A more prominent blocking regime is evolving across the southern mid-latitude and subtropical eastern Pacific, with split belts of stronger westerlies becoming broadly confluent into/across the North American Pacific coast. Downstream, an initially amplified regime, including large-scale mid/upper troughing across much of eastern North America, may begin to slowly trend more zonal by the end of the period. While one vigorous embedded short wave impulse of Arctic origins turns eastward across the St. Lawrence Valley through the Canadian Maritimes, a couple of consolidating trailing perturbations (also emanating from the Arctic) are forecast to continue digging southeast of the lower Ohio Valley through the southern Mid Atlantic coast vicinity, before turning eastward into the Atlantic. Associated with these developments, in lower levels, models indicate that modifying Arctic air will be in the process of overspreading New England and northern Mid Atlantic coastal areas by daybreak Saturday, with a secondary surge overspreading the southern Appalachians and much of the Southeast Saturday afternoon through Saturday night. This will be preceded by a more modest surface front, initially stalling across the Canadian Maritimes, while advancing southeast of the Florida Peninsula, and well away from much of the remainder of the southern Atlantic Seaboard by early Saturday. In the wake of this lead front, low-level drying appears likely to continue across the southeastern Gulf of Mexico into the Caribbean. Generally dry conditions likely will prevail across much of the remainder of the Gulf Basin, though models suggest that some boundary-layer modification/moistening may slowly commence in a narrow corridor near the Mexican/northwestern Gulf coast vicinity. ...Carolinas... While boundary-layer moisture content will remain relatively low, insolation likely will contribute to steep low-level lapse rates ahead of the reinforcing cold front, and beneath a cold mid-level environment across most areas south and east of the southern Appalachians by Saturday afternoon. As a 70-90 kt mid-level jet streak (associated with the approaching Arctic impulse) noses toward the southern Atlantic coast, models suggest that forcing for ascent and cold advection may contribute to 500 mb temperatures cooling to as low as -28 to -30 C across the Carolinas Saturday afternoon. It appears that this will contribute to sufficient destabilization to support low topped thunderstorm development, initiating over the higher terrain before spreading east-southeastward into the coastal plain by early Saturday evening. Based on forecasting soundings, the risk for severe weather appears low. However, it may not be entirely out of the question that stronger cells could produce small hail or graupel and perhaps scattered gusts up to around 30-40 kt. ..Kerr.. 02/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CST Fri Feb 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Carolinas Saturday afternoon, but the risk of severe weather currently appears negligible. ...Synopsis... A more prominent blocking regime is evolving across the southern mid-latitude and subtropical eastern Pacific, with split belts of stronger westerlies becoming broadly confluent into/across the North American Pacific coast. Downstream, an initially amplified regime, including large-scale mid/upper troughing across much of eastern North America, may begin to slowly trend more zonal by the end of the period. While one vigorous embedded short wave impulse of Arctic origins turns eastward across the St. Lawrence Valley through the Canadian Maritimes, a couple of consolidating trailing perturbations (also emanating from the Arctic) are forecast to continue digging southeast of the lower Ohio Valley through the southern Mid Atlantic coast vicinity, before turning eastward into the Atlantic. Associated with these developments, in lower levels, models indicate that modifying Arctic air will be in the process of overspreading New England and northern Mid Atlantic coastal areas by daybreak Saturday, with a secondary surge overspreading the southern Appalachians and much of the Southeast Saturday afternoon through Saturday night. This will be preceded by a more modest surface front, initially stalling across the Canadian Maritimes, while advancing southeast of the Florida Peninsula, and well away from much of the remainder of the southern Atlantic Seaboard by early Saturday. In the wake of this lead front, low-level drying appears likely to continue across the southeastern Gulf of Mexico into the Caribbean. Generally dry conditions likely will prevail across much of the remainder of the Gulf Basin, though models suggest that some boundary-layer modification/moistening may slowly commence in a narrow corridor near the Mexican/northwestern Gulf coast vicinity. ...Carolinas... While boundary-layer moisture content will remain relatively low, insolation likely will contribute to steep low-level lapse rates ahead of the reinforcing cold front, and beneath a cold mid-level environment across most areas south and east of the southern Appalachians by Saturday afternoon. As a 70-90 kt mid-level jet streak (associated with the approaching Arctic impulse) noses toward the southern Atlantic coast, models suggest that forcing for ascent and cold advection may contribute to 500 mb temperatures cooling to as low as -28 to -30 C across the Carolinas Saturday afternoon. It appears that this will contribute to sufficient destabilization to support low topped thunderstorm development, initiating over the higher terrain before spreading east-southeastward into the coastal plain by early Saturday evening. Based on forecasting soundings, the risk for severe weather appears low. However, it may not be entirely out of the question that stronger cells could produce small hail or graupel and perhaps scattered gusts up to around 30-40 kt. ..Kerr.. 02/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CST Fri Feb 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Carolinas Saturday afternoon, but the risk of severe weather currently appears negligible. ...Synopsis... A more prominent blocking regime is evolving across the southern mid-latitude and subtropical eastern Pacific, with split belts of stronger westerlies becoming broadly confluent into/across the North American Pacific coast. Downstream, an initially amplified regime, including large-scale mid/upper troughing across much of eastern North America, may begin to slowly trend more zonal by the end of the period. While one vigorous embedded short wave impulse of Arctic origins turns eastward across the St. Lawrence Valley through the Canadian Maritimes, a couple of consolidating trailing perturbations (also emanating from the Arctic) are forecast to continue digging southeast of the lower Ohio Valley through the southern Mid Atlantic coast vicinity, before turning eastward into the Atlantic. Associated with these developments, in lower levels, models indicate that modifying Arctic air will be in the process of overspreading New England and northern Mid Atlantic coastal areas by daybreak Saturday, with a secondary surge overspreading the southern Appalachians and much of the Southeast Saturday afternoon through Saturday night. This will be preceded by a more modest surface front, initially stalling across the Canadian Maritimes, while advancing southeast of the Florida Peninsula, and well away from much of the remainder of the southern Atlantic Seaboard by early Saturday. In the wake of this lead front, low-level drying appears likely to continue across the southeastern Gulf of Mexico into the Caribbean. Generally dry conditions likely will prevail across much of the remainder of the Gulf Basin, though models suggest that some boundary-layer modification/moistening may slowly commence in a narrow corridor near the Mexican/northwestern Gulf coast vicinity. ...Carolinas... While boundary-layer moisture content will remain relatively low, insolation likely will contribute to steep low-level lapse rates ahead of the reinforcing cold front, and beneath a cold mid-level environment across most areas south and east of the southern Appalachians by Saturday afternoon. As a 70-90 kt mid-level jet streak (associated with the approaching Arctic impulse) noses toward the southern Atlantic coast, models suggest that forcing for ascent and cold advection may contribute to 500 mb temperatures cooling to as low as -28 to -30 C across the Carolinas Saturday afternoon. It appears that this will contribute to sufficient destabilization to support low topped thunderstorm development, initiating over the higher terrain before spreading east-southeastward into the coastal plain by early Saturday evening. Based on forecasting soundings, the risk for severe weather appears low. However, it may not be entirely out of the question that stronger cells could produce small hail or graupel and perhaps scattered gusts up to around 30-40 kt. ..Kerr.. 02/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CST Fri Feb 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Carolinas Saturday afternoon, but the risk of severe weather currently appears negligible. ...Synopsis... A more prominent blocking regime is evolving across the southern mid-latitude and subtropical eastern Pacific, with split belts of stronger westerlies becoming broadly confluent into/across the North American Pacific coast. Downstream, an initially amplified regime, including large-scale mid/upper troughing across much of eastern North America, may begin to slowly trend more zonal by the end of the period. While one vigorous embedded short wave impulse of Arctic origins turns eastward across the St. Lawrence Valley through the Canadian Maritimes, a couple of consolidating trailing perturbations (also emanating from the Arctic) are forecast to continue digging southeast of the lower Ohio Valley through the southern Mid Atlantic coast vicinity, before turning eastward into the Atlantic. Associated with these developments, in lower levels, models indicate that modifying Arctic air will be in the process of overspreading New England and northern Mid Atlantic coastal areas by daybreak Saturday, with a secondary surge overspreading the southern Appalachians and much of the Southeast Saturday afternoon through Saturday night. This will be preceded by a more modest surface front, initially stalling across the Canadian Maritimes, while advancing southeast of the Florida Peninsula, and well away from much of the remainder of the southern Atlantic Seaboard by early Saturday. In the wake of this lead front, low-level drying appears likely to continue across the southeastern Gulf of Mexico into the Caribbean. Generally dry conditions likely will prevail across much of the remainder of the Gulf Basin, though models suggest that some boundary-layer modification/moistening may slowly commence in a narrow corridor near the Mexican/northwestern Gulf coast vicinity. ...Carolinas... While boundary-layer moisture content will remain relatively low, insolation likely will contribute to steep low-level lapse rates ahead of the reinforcing cold front, and beneath a cold mid-level environment across most areas south and east of the southern Appalachians by Saturday afternoon. As a 70-90 kt mid-level jet streak (associated with the approaching Arctic impulse) noses toward the southern Atlantic coast, models suggest that forcing for ascent and cold advection may contribute to 500 mb temperatures cooling to as low as -28 to -30 C across the Carolinas Saturday afternoon. It appears that this will contribute to sufficient destabilization to support low topped thunderstorm development, initiating over the higher terrain before spreading east-southeastward into the coastal plain by early Saturday evening. Based on forecasting soundings, the risk for severe weather appears low. However, it may not be entirely out of the question that stronger cells could produce small hail or graupel and perhaps scattered gusts up to around 30-40 kt. ..Kerr.. 02/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CST Fri Feb 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Carolinas Saturday afternoon, but the risk of severe weather currently appears negligible. ...Synopsis... A more prominent blocking regime is evolving across the southern mid-latitude and subtropical eastern Pacific, with split belts of stronger westerlies becoming broadly confluent into/across the North American Pacific coast. Downstream, an initially amplified regime, including large-scale mid/upper troughing across much of eastern North America, may begin to slowly trend more zonal by the end of the period. While one vigorous embedded short wave impulse of Arctic origins turns eastward across the St. Lawrence Valley through the Canadian Maritimes, a couple of consolidating trailing perturbations (also emanating from the Arctic) are forecast to continue digging southeast of the lower Ohio Valley through the southern Mid Atlantic coast vicinity, before turning eastward into the Atlantic. Associated with these developments, in lower levels, models indicate that modifying Arctic air will be in the process of overspreading New England and northern Mid Atlantic coastal areas by daybreak Saturday, with a secondary surge overspreading the southern Appalachians and much of the Southeast Saturday afternoon through Saturday night. This will be preceded by a more modest surface front, initially stalling across the Canadian Maritimes, while advancing southeast of the Florida Peninsula, and well away from much of the remainder of the southern Atlantic Seaboard by early Saturday. In the wake of this lead front, low-level drying appears likely to continue across the southeastern Gulf of Mexico into the Caribbean. Generally dry conditions likely will prevail across much of the remainder of the Gulf Basin, though models suggest that some boundary-layer modification/moistening may slowly commence in a narrow corridor near the Mexican/northwestern Gulf coast vicinity. ...Carolinas... While boundary-layer moisture content will remain relatively low, insolation likely will contribute to steep low-level lapse rates ahead of the reinforcing cold front, and beneath a cold mid-level environment across most areas south and east of the southern Appalachians by Saturday afternoon. As a 70-90 kt mid-level jet streak (associated with the approaching Arctic impulse) noses toward the southern Atlantic coast, models suggest that forcing for ascent and cold advection may contribute to 500 mb temperatures cooling to as low as -28 to -30 C across the Carolinas Saturday afternoon. It appears that this will contribute to sufficient destabilization to support low topped thunderstorm development, initiating over the higher terrain before spreading east-southeastward into the coastal plain by early Saturday evening. Based on forecasting soundings, the risk for severe weather appears low. However, it may not be entirely out of the question that stronger cells could produce small hail or graupel and perhaps scattered gusts up to around 30-40 kt. ..Kerr.. 02/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CST Fri Feb 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Carolinas Saturday afternoon, but the risk of severe weather currently appears negligible. ...Synopsis... A more prominent blocking regime is evolving across the southern mid-latitude and subtropical eastern Pacific, with split belts of stronger westerlies becoming broadly confluent into/across the North American Pacific coast. Downstream, an initially amplified regime, including large-scale mid/upper troughing across much of eastern North America, may begin to slowly trend more zonal by the end of the period. While one vigorous embedded short wave impulse of Arctic origins turns eastward across the St. Lawrence Valley through the Canadian Maritimes, a couple of consolidating trailing perturbations (also emanating from the Arctic) are forecast to continue digging southeast of the lower Ohio Valley through the southern Mid Atlantic coast vicinity, before turning eastward into the Atlantic. Associated with these developments, in lower levels, models indicate that modifying Arctic air will be in the process of overspreading New England and northern Mid Atlantic coastal areas by daybreak Saturday, with a secondary surge overspreading the southern Appalachians and much of the Southeast Saturday afternoon through Saturday night. This will be preceded by a more modest surface front, initially stalling across the Canadian Maritimes, while advancing southeast of the Florida Peninsula, and well away from much of the remainder of the southern Atlantic Seaboard by early Saturday. In the wake of this lead front, low-level drying appears likely to continue across the southeastern Gulf of Mexico into the Caribbean. Generally dry conditions likely will prevail across much of the remainder of the Gulf Basin, though models suggest that some boundary-layer modification/moistening may slowly commence in a narrow corridor near the Mexican/northwestern Gulf coast vicinity. ...Carolinas... While boundary-layer moisture content will remain relatively low, insolation likely will contribute to steep low-level lapse rates ahead of the reinforcing cold front, and beneath a cold mid-level environment across most areas south and east of the southern Appalachians by Saturday afternoon. As a 70-90 kt mid-level jet streak (associated with the approaching Arctic impulse) noses toward the southern Atlantic coast, models suggest that forcing for ascent and cold advection may contribute to 500 mb temperatures cooling to as low as -28 to -30 C across the Carolinas Saturday afternoon. It appears that this will contribute to sufficient destabilization to support low topped thunderstorm development, initiating over the higher terrain before spreading east-southeastward into the coastal plain by early Saturday evening. Based on forecasting soundings, the risk for severe weather appears low. However, it may not be entirely out of the question that stronger cells could produce small hail or graupel and perhaps scattered gusts up to around 30-40 kt. ..Kerr.. 02/23/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1033 AM CST Fri Feb 23 2024 Valid 231700Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 02/23/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CST Fri Feb 23 2024/ ...Synopsis... In the mid levels, troughing is forecast to intensify over the eastern US as ridging builds over the West Coast. Strong mid-level flow will shift over the east as high pressure begins to move into the central US. At the surface, a weak cold front will move offshore with north/northwesterly winds likely behind it. While weaker winds are expected over much of the CONUS, somewhat stronger flow is possible in the lee of the Rockies over parts of the High Plains this afternoon. Localized dry and breezy conditions may emerge across portions of NE, CO, and KS. However, stronger winds will be limited in overlap with dry fuels suggesting fire-weather concerns will be limited for much of the country. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1033 AM CST Fri Feb 23 2024 Valid 231700Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 02/23/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CST Fri Feb 23 2024/ ...Synopsis... In the mid levels, troughing is forecast to intensify over the eastern US as ridging builds over the West Coast. Strong mid-level flow will shift over the east as high pressure begins to move into the central US. At the surface, a weak cold front will move offshore with north/northwesterly winds likely behind it. While weaker winds are expected over much of the CONUS, somewhat stronger flow is possible in the lee of the Rockies over parts of the High Plains this afternoon. Localized dry and breezy conditions may emerge across portions of NE, CO, and KS. However, stronger winds will be limited in overlap with dry fuels suggesting fire-weather concerns will be limited for much of the country. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1033 AM CST Fri Feb 23 2024 Valid 231700Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 02/23/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CST Fri Feb 23 2024/ ...Synopsis... In the mid levels, troughing is forecast to intensify over the eastern US as ridging builds over the West Coast. Strong mid-level flow will shift over the east as high pressure begins to move into the central US. At the surface, a weak cold front will move offshore with north/northwesterly winds likely behind it. While weaker winds are expected over much of the CONUS, somewhat stronger flow is possible in the lee of the Rockies over parts of the High Plains this afternoon. Localized dry and breezy conditions may emerge across portions of NE, CO, and KS. However, stronger winds will be limited in overlap with dry fuels suggesting fire-weather concerns will be limited for much of the country. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1033 AM CST Fri Feb 23 2024 Valid 231700Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 02/23/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CST Fri Feb 23 2024/ ...Synopsis... In the mid levels, troughing is forecast to intensify over the eastern US as ridging builds over the West Coast. Strong mid-level flow will shift over the east as high pressure begins to move into the central US. At the surface, a weak cold front will move offshore with north/northwesterly winds likely behind it. While weaker winds are expected over much of the CONUS, somewhat stronger flow is possible in the lee of the Rockies over parts of the High Plains this afternoon. Localized dry and breezy conditions may emerge across portions of NE, CO, and KS. However, stronger winds will be limited in overlap with dry fuels suggesting fire-weather concerns will be limited for much of the country. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1033 AM CST Fri Feb 23 2024 Valid 231700Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 02/23/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CST Fri Feb 23 2024/ ...Synopsis... In the mid levels, troughing is forecast to intensify over the eastern US as ridging builds over the West Coast. Strong mid-level flow will shift over the east as high pressure begins to move into the central US. At the surface, a weak cold front will move offshore with north/northwesterly winds likely behind it. While weaker winds are expected over much of the CONUS, somewhat stronger flow is possible in the lee of the Rockies over parts of the High Plains this afternoon. Localized dry and breezy conditions may emerge across portions of NE, CO, and KS. However, stronger winds will be limited in overlap with dry fuels suggesting fire-weather concerns will be limited for much of the country. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1033 AM CST Fri Feb 23 2024 Valid 231700Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 02/23/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CST Fri Feb 23 2024/ ...Synopsis... In the mid levels, troughing is forecast to intensify over the eastern US as ridging builds over the West Coast. Strong mid-level flow will shift over the east as high pressure begins to move into the central US. At the surface, a weak cold front will move offshore with north/northwesterly winds likely behind it. While weaker winds are expected over much of the CONUS, somewhat stronger flow is possible in the lee of the Rockies over parts of the High Plains this afternoon. Localized dry and breezy conditions may emerge across portions of NE, CO, and KS. However, stronger winds will be limited in overlap with dry fuels suggesting fire-weather concerns will be limited for much of the country. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1033 AM CST Fri Feb 23 2024 Valid 231700Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 02/23/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CST Fri Feb 23 2024/ ...Synopsis... In the mid levels, troughing is forecast to intensify over the eastern US as ridging builds over the West Coast. Strong mid-level flow will shift over the east as high pressure begins to move into the central US. At the surface, a weak cold front will move offshore with north/northwesterly winds likely behind it. While weaker winds are expected over much of the CONUS, somewhat stronger flow is possible in the lee of the Rockies over parts of the High Plains this afternoon. Localized dry and breezy conditions may emerge across portions of NE, CO, and KS. However, stronger winds will be limited in overlap with dry fuels suggesting fire-weather concerns will be limited for much of the country. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1003 AM CST Fri Feb 23 2024 Valid 231630Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No organized severe storms are expected today. ...Carolinas... Morning surface analysis shows a low over VA with a trailing cold front extending southwestward into the Gulf Coast states. This front will sweep southeastward today across the Carolinas. Cloud cover is diminishing across SC ahead of the front, which should result in some heating/destabilization. However, this heating will be behind a pre-frontal trough, where veering surface winds are weakening low-level convergence and shear. Cold temperatures aloft and steep lapse rates may still result in a few afternoon thunderstorms, with small hail possible in the stronger cells. However, guidance appears less favorable for severe storms than earlier anticipated. ..Hart/Bentley.. 02/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1003 AM CST Fri Feb 23 2024 Valid 231630Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No organized severe storms are expected today. ...Carolinas... Morning surface analysis shows a low over VA with a trailing cold front extending southwestward into the Gulf Coast states. This front will sweep southeastward today across the Carolinas. Cloud cover is diminishing across SC ahead of the front, which should result in some heating/destabilization. However, this heating will be behind a pre-frontal trough, where veering surface winds are weakening low-level convergence and shear. Cold temperatures aloft and steep lapse rates may still result in a few afternoon thunderstorms, with small hail possible in the stronger cells. However, guidance appears less favorable for severe storms than earlier anticipated. ..Hart/Bentley.. 02/23/2024 Read more