Severe Storms

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0625 AM CST Sun Feb 25 2024 Valid 251300Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may occur Sunday night across parts of coastal/northwest Washington. ...Discussion... The upper flow field across the U.S. will continue to trend toward an increasingly zonal configuration with time, as upper troughing continues to shift away from the East Coast into the western Atlantic. At the surface, high pressure will prevail across much of the country, along with generally dry/stable conditions. During the second half of the period, a short-wave trough digging southward along the British Columbia coast will reach the Pacific Northwest. Cold air aloft/steep lapse rates will likely yield weak destabilization late -- largely across the western Washington vicinity. As such, sporadic lighting may evolve with showery convection anticipated across this area. Elsewhere, thunderstorms are not expected. ..Goss/Broyles.. 02/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0625 AM CST Sun Feb 25 2024 Valid 251300Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may occur Sunday night across parts of coastal/northwest Washington. ...Discussion... The upper flow field across the U.S. will continue to trend toward an increasingly zonal configuration with time, as upper troughing continues to shift away from the East Coast into the western Atlantic. At the surface, high pressure will prevail across much of the country, along with generally dry/stable conditions. During the second half of the period, a short-wave trough digging southward along the British Columbia coast will reach the Pacific Northwest. Cold air aloft/steep lapse rates will likely yield weak destabilization late -- largely across the western Washington vicinity. As such, sporadic lighting may evolve with showery convection anticipated across this area. Elsewhere, thunderstorms are not expected. ..Goss/Broyles.. 02/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0625 AM CST Sun Feb 25 2024 Valid 251300Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may occur Sunday night across parts of coastal/northwest Washington. ...Discussion... The upper flow field across the U.S. will continue to trend toward an increasingly zonal configuration with time, as upper troughing continues to shift away from the East Coast into the western Atlantic. At the surface, high pressure will prevail across much of the country, along with generally dry/stable conditions. During the second half of the period, a short-wave trough digging southward along the British Columbia coast will reach the Pacific Northwest. Cold air aloft/steep lapse rates will likely yield weak destabilization late -- largely across the western Washington vicinity. As such, sporadic lighting may evolve with showery convection anticipated across this area. Elsewhere, thunderstorms are not expected. ..Goss/Broyles.. 02/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0625 AM CST Sun Feb 25 2024 Valid 251300Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may occur Sunday night across parts of coastal/northwest Washington. ...Discussion... The upper flow field across the U.S. will continue to trend toward an increasingly zonal configuration with time, as upper troughing continues to shift away from the East Coast into the western Atlantic. At the surface, high pressure will prevail across much of the country, along with generally dry/stable conditions. During the second half of the period, a short-wave trough digging southward along the British Columbia coast will reach the Pacific Northwest. Cold air aloft/steep lapse rates will likely yield weak destabilization late -- largely across the western Washington vicinity. As such, sporadic lighting may evolve with showery convection anticipated across this area. Elsewhere, thunderstorms are not expected. ..Goss/Broyles.. 02/25/2024 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 AM CST Sun Feb 25 2024 Valid 281200Z - 041200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Wednesday/Day 4... An upper-level trough is forecast to move into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley on Wednesday, as a cold front sweeps quickly southeastward across the southern and central Appalachians. Instability ahead of the front is forecast to be very weak at the start of the period. Wednesday morning, scattered thunderstorms appear likely to be ongoing across parts of the Ohio Valley and southern Great Lakes, where a marginal severe threat is anticipated. As the cold front progresses southeastward during the day, additional storm development could take place near the front in parts of the lower Great Lakes and central Appalachians. Although a marginal wind-damage threat could occur along parts of the front, abundant cloud cover and very weak instability will likely limit any potential for severe storms Wednesday afternoon. Due to downward trends in the model forecasts concerning severe potential, the 15 percent area has been removed. ...Thursday/Day 5 to Sunday/Day 8... A large area of surface high pressure will likely move through the eastern U.S. from Thursday into Friday. Thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the central Gulf Coast on Friday, on the far northern edge of a moist airmass. As winds return to the south across the southern Plains, moisture advection is expected from late Friday into Saturday. An upper-level trough is forecast to develop in the western U.S., with winds remaining southwesterly across the central states over the weekend. The ECMWF is currently forecasting a corridor of instability to develop across the southern and central Plains on Sunday/Day 8, with an upper-level low moving into the central High Plains. This solution would suggest a severe threat across parts of the region Sunday afternoon and evening. However, the GFS solution is not in agreement with weaker moisture return and much less instability. At this point, a wide spread in model solutions suggests too much uncertainty is present to consider adding a severe threat area. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 AM CST Sun Feb 25 2024 Valid 281200Z - 041200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Wednesday/Day 4... An upper-level trough is forecast to move into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley on Wednesday, as a cold front sweeps quickly southeastward across the southern and central Appalachians. Instability ahead of the front is forecast to be very weak at the start of the period. Wednesday morning, scattered thunderstorms appear likely to be ongoing across parts of the Ohio Valley and southern Great Lakes, where a marginal severe threat is anticipated. As the cold front progresses southeastward during the day, additional storm development could take place near the front in parts of the lower Great Lakes and central Appalachians. Although a marginal wind-damage threat could occur along parts of the front, abundant cloud cover and very weak instability will likely limit any potential for severe storms Wednesday afternoon. Due to downward trends in the model forecasts concerning severe potential, the 15 percent area has been removed. ...Thursday/Day 5 to Sunday/Day 8... A large area of surface high pressure will likely move through the eastern U.S. from Thursday into Friday. Thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the central Gulf Coast on Friday, on the far northern edge of a moist airmass. As winds return to the south across the southern Plains, moisture advection is expected from late Friday into Saturday. An upper-level trough is forecast to develop in the western U.S., with winds remaining southwesterly across the central states over the weekend. The ECMWF is currently forecasting a corridor of instability to develop across the southern and central Plains on Sunday/Day 8, with an upper-level low moving into the central High Plains. This solution would suggest a severe threat across parts of the region Sunday afternoon and evening. However, the GFS solution is not in agreement with weaker moisture return and much less instability. At this point, a wide spread in model solutions suggests too much uncertainty is present to consider adding a severe threat area. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 AM CST Sun Feb 25 2024 Valid 281200Z - 041200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Wednesday/Day 4... An upper-level trough is forecast to move into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley on Wednesday, as a cold front sweeps quickly southeastward across the southern and central Appalachians. Instability ahead of the front is forecast to be very weak at the start of the period. Wednesday morning, scattered thunderstorms appear likely to be ongoing across parts of the Ohio Valley and southern Great Lakes, where a marginal severe threat is anticipated. As the cold front progresses southeastward during the day, additional storm development could take place near the front in parts of the lower Great Lakes and central Appalachians. Although a marginal wind-damage threat could occur along parts of the front, abundant cloud cover and very weak instability will likely limit any potential for severe storms Wednesday afternoon. Due to downward trends in the model forecasts concerning severe potential, the 15 percent area has been removed. ...Thursday/Day 5 to Sunday/Day 8... A large area of surface high pressure will likely move through the eastern U.S. from Thursday into Friday. Thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the central Gulf Coast on Friday, on the far northern edge of a moist airmass. As winds return to the south across the southern Plains, moisture advection is expected from late Friday into Saturday. An upper-level trough is forecast to develop in the western U.S., with winds remaining southwesterly across the central states over the weekend. The ECMWF is currently forecasting a corridor of instability to develop across the southern and central Plains on Sunday/Day 8, with an upper-level low moving into the central High Plains. This solution would suggest a severe threat across parts of the region Sunday afternoon and evening. However, the GFS solution is not in agreement with weaker moisture return and much less instability. At this point, a wide spread in model solutions suggests too much uncertainty is present to consider adding a severe threat area. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 AM CST Sun Feb 25 2024 Valid 281200Z - 041200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Wednesday/Day 4... An upper-level trough is forecast to move into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley on Wednesday, as a cold front sweeps quickly southeastward across the southern and central Appalachians. Instability ahead of the front is forecast to be very weak at the start of the period. Wednesday morning, scattered thunderstorms appear likely to be ongoing across parts of the Ohio Valley and southern Great Lakes, where a marginal severe threat is anticipated. As the cold front progresses southeastward during the day, additional storm development could take place near the front in parts of the lower Great Lakes and central Appalachians. Although a marginal wind-damage threat could occur along parts of the front, abundant cloud cover and very weak instability will likely limit any potential for severe storms Wednesday afternoon. Due to downward trends in the model forecasts concerning severe potential, the 15 percent area has been removed. ...Thursday/Day 5 to Sunday/Day 8... A large area of surface high pressure will likely move through the eastern U.S. from Thursday into Friday. Thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the central Gulf Coast on Friday, on the far northern edge of a moist airmass. As winds return to the south across the southern Plains, moisture advection is expected from late Friday into Saturday. An upper-level trough is forecast to develop in the western U.S., with winds remaining southwesterly across the central states over the weekend. The ECMWF is currently forecasting a corridor of instability to develop across the southern and central Plains on Sunday/Day 8, with an upper-level low moving into the central High Plains. This solution would suggest a severe threat across parts of the region Sunday afternoon and evening. However, the GFS solution is not in agreement with weaker moisture return and much less instability. At this point, a wide spread in model solutions suggests too much uncertainty is present to consider adding a severe threat area. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 AM CST Sun Feb 25 2024 Valid 281200Z - 041200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Wednesday/Day 4... An upper-level trough is forecast to move into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley on Wednesday, as a cold front sweeps quickly southeastward across the southern and central Appalachians. Instability ahead of the front is forecast to be very weak at the start of the period. Wednesday morning, scattered thunderstorms appear likely to be ongoing across parts of the Ohio Valley and southern Great Lakes, where a marginal severe threat is anticipated. As the cold front progresses southeastward during the day, additional storm development could take place near the front in parts of the lower Great Lakes and central Appalachians. Although a marginal wind-damage threat could occur along parts of the front, abundant cloud cover and very weak instability will likely limit any potential for severe storms Wednesday afternoon. Due to downward trends in the model forecasts concerning severe potential, the 15 percent area has been removed. ...Thursday/Day 5 to Sunday/Day 8... A large area of surface high pressure will likely move through the eastern U.S. from Thursday into Friday. Thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the central Gulf Coast on Friday, on the far northern edge of a moist airmass. As winds return to the south across the southern Plains, moisture advection is expected from late Friday into Saturday. An upper-level trough is forecast to develop in the western U.S., with winds remaining southwesterly across the central states over the weekend. The ECMWF is currently forecasting a corridor of instability to develop across the southern and central Plains on Sunday/Day 8, with an upper-level low moving into the central High Plains. This solution would suggest a severe threat across parts of the region Sunday afternoon and evening. However, the GFS solution is not in agreement with weaker moisture return and much less instability. At this point, a wide spread in model solutions suggests too much uncertainty is present to consider adding a severe threat area. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 AM CST Sun Feb 25 2024 Valid 281200Z - 041200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Wednesday/Day 4... An upper-level trough is forecast to move into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley on Wednesday, as a cold front sweeps quickly southeastward across the southern and central Appalachians. Instability ahead of the front is forecast to be very weak at the start of the period. Wednesday morning, scattered thunderstorms appear likely to be ongoing across parts of the Ohio Valley and southern Great Lakes, where a marginal severe threat is anticipated. As the cold front progresses southeastward during the day, additional storm development could take place near the front in parts of the lower Great Lakes and central Appalachians. Although a marginal wind-damage threat could occur along parts of the front, abundant cloud cover and very weak instability will likely limit any potential for severe storms Wednesday afternoon. Due to downward trends in the model forecasts concerning severe potential, the 15 percent area has been removed. ...Thursday/Day 5 to Sunday/Day 8... A large area of surface high pressure will likely move through the eastern U.S. from Thursday into Friday. Thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the central Gulf Coast on Friday, on the far northern edge of a moist airmass. As winds return to the south across the southern Plains, moisture advection is expected from late Friday into Saturday. An upper-level trough is forecast to develop in the western U.S., with winds remaining southwesterly across the central states over the weekend. The ECMWF is currently forecasting a corridor of instability to develop across the southern and central Plains on Sunday/Day 8, with an upper-level low moving into the central High Plains. This solution would suggest a severe threat across parts of the region Sunday afternoon and evening. However, the GFS solution is not in agreement with weaker moisture return and much less instability. At this point, a wide spread in model solutions suggests too much uncertainty is present to consider adding a severe threat area. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0234 AM CST Sun Feb 25 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE OZARKS...MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHWESTERN GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms, associated with isolated wind damage, hail and possibly a few tornadoes, will be possible from late Tuesday afternoon, into the evening and overnight from parts of the Ozarks into the mid Mississippi Valley, and southwestern Great Lakes. ...Ozarks/Mid Mississippi Valley/Southwestern Great Lakes... An upper-level trough will move eastward into the central Rockies and northern Plains on Tuesday, as mid-level flow remains west-southwesterly across much of the central and eastern U.S. Well ahead of the system, moisture will return north-northeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley and southwestern Great Lakes, reaching as far north as southern lower Michigan. A cold front is forecast to move southeastward into the mid to upper Mississippi Valley. Destabilization ahead of the front, along with increasing low-level convergence, will likely result in thunderstorm development by early evening. Thunderstorms are expected to first initiate in parts of central Illinois and north-central Indiana. Convective coverage is expected to increase through the evening, as storms develop ahead of the front, southward into parts of the mid Mississippi Valley and northern Ozarks. For this event, low-level moisture return is forecast to be weak, with surface dewpoints only increasing into the upper 50s and lower 60s F across parts of the mid Mississippi. For this reason, MLCAPE is forecast to peak only in the 500 to 1000 J/kg range across much of the moist sector. Increasing large-scale ascent ahead of the approaching system is forecast to be sufficient for the development of scattered thunderstorms. Forecast soundings in north-central Illinois, along and near the moist axis, by 03Z/Wednesday have 0-6 km shear in the 55 to 65 knot range, with 700-500 mb lapse rates of 7.5 to 8 C/km. This should be enough for strong to severe updrafts. Isolated wind damage, hail and a possibly a few tornadoes are expected to be the primary threats. Although a Slight Risk appears warranted for this event, there is still uncertainty concerning the magnitude of the severe threat. This uncertainty is mainly due to the weak moisture return, and to the later timing of the convective potential, which is forecast to be mostly in the evening and overnight period. ..Broyles.. 02/25/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0234 AM CST Sun Feb 25 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE OZARKS...MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHWESTERN GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms, associated with isolated wind damage, hail and possibly a few tornadoes, will be possible from late Tuesday afternoon, into the evening and overnight from parts of the Ozarks into the mid Mississippi Valley, and southwestern Great Lakes. ...Ozarks/Mid Mississippi Valley/Southwestern Great Lakes... An upper-level trough will move eastward into the central Rockies and northern Plains on Tuesday, as mid-level flow remains west-southwesterly across much of the central and eastern U.S. Well ahead of the system, moisture will return north-northeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley and southwestern Great Lakes, reaching as far north as southern lower Michigan. A cold front is forecast to move southeastward into the mid to upper Mississippi Valley. Destabilization ahead of the front, along with increasing low-level convergence, will likely result in thunderstorm development by early evening. Thunderstorms are expected to first initiate in parts of central Illinois and north-central Indiana. Convective coverage is expected to increase through the evening, as storms develop ahead of the front, southward into parts of the mid Mississippi Valley and northern Ozarks. For this event, low-level moisture return is forecast to be weak, with surface dewpoints only increasing into the upper 50s and lower 60s F across parts of the mid Mississippi. For this reason, MLCAPE is forecast to peak only in the 500 to 1000 J/kg range across much of the moist sector. Increasing large-scale ascent ahead of the approaching system is forecast to be sufficient for the development of scattered thunderstorms. Forecast soundings in north-central Illinois, along and near the moist axis, by 03Z/Wednesday have 0-6 km shear in the 55 to 65 knot range, with 700-500 mb lapse rates of 7.5 to 8 C/km. This should be enough for strong to severe updrafts. Isolated wind damage, hail and a possibly a few tornadoes are expected to be the primary threats. Although a Slight Risk appears warranted for this event, there is still uncertainty concerning the magnitude of the severe threat. This uncertainty is mainly due to the weak moisture return, and to the later timing of the convective potential, which is forecast to be mostly in the evening and overnight period. ..Broyles.. 02/25/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0234 AM CST Sun Feb 25 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE OZARKS...MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHWESTERN GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms, associated with isolated wind damage, hail and possibly a few tornadoes, will be possible from late Tuesday afternoon, into the evening and overnight from parts of the Ozarks into the mid Mississippi Valley, and southwestern Great Lakes. ...Ozarks/Mid Mississippi Valley/Southwestern Great Lakes... An upper-level trough will move eastward into the central Rockies and northern Plains on Tuesday, as mid-level flow remains west-southwesterly across much of the central and eastern U.S. Well ahead of the system, moisture will return north-northeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley and southwestern Great Lakes, reaching as far north as southern lower Michigan. A cold front is forecast to move southeastward into the mid to upper Mississippi Valley. Destabilization ahead of the front, along with increasing low-level convergence, will likely result in thunderstorm development by early evening. Thunderstorms are expected to first initiate in parts of central Illinois and north-central Indiana. Convective coverage is expected to increase through the evening, as storms develop ahead of the front, southward into parts of the mid Mississippi Valley and northern Ozarks. For this event, low-level moisture return is forecast to be weak, with surface dewpoints only increasing into the upper 50s and lower 60s F across parts of the mid Mississippi. For this reason, MLCAPE is forecast to peak only in the 500 to 1000 J/kg range across much of the moist sector. Increasing large-scale ascent ahead of the approaching system is forecast to be sufficient for the development of scattered thunderstorms. Forecast soundings in north-central Illinois, along and near the moist axis, by 03Z/Wednesday have 0-6 km shear in the 55 to 65 knot range, with 700-500 mb lapse rates of 7.5 to 8 C/km. This should be enough for strong to severe updrafts. Isolated wind damage, hail and a possibly a few tornadoes are expected to be the primary threats. Although a Slight Risk appears warranted for this event, there is still uncertainty concerning the magnitude of the severe threat. This uncertainty is mainly due to the weak moisture return, and to the later timing of the convective potential, which is forecast to be mostly in the evening and overnight period. ..Broyles.. 02/25/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0234 AM CST Sun Feb 25 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE OZARKS...MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHWESTERN GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms, associated with isolated wind damage, hail and possibly a few tornadoes, will be possible from late Tuesday afternoon, into the evening and overnight from parts of the Ozarks into the mid Mississippi Valley, and southwestern Great Lakes. ...Ozarks/Mid Mississippi Valley/Southwestern Great Lakes... An upper-level trough will move eastward into the central Rockies and northern Plains on Tuesday, as mid-level flow remains west-southwesterly across much of the central and eastern U.S. Well ahead of the system, moisture will return north-northeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley and southwestern Great Lakes, reaching as far north as southern lower Michigan. A cold front is forecast to move southeastward into the mid to upper Mississippi Valley. Destabilization ahead of the front, along with increasing low-level convergence, will likely result in thunderstorm development by early evening. Thunderstorms are expected to first initiate in parts of central Illinois and north-central Indiana. Convective coverage is expected to increase through the evening, as storms develop ahead of the front, southward into parts of the mid Mississippi Valley and northern Ozarks. For this event, low-level moisture return is forecast to be weak, with surface dewpoints only increasing into the upper 50s and lower 60s F across parts of the mid Mississippi. For this reason, MLCAPE is forecast to peak only in the 500 to 1000 J/kg range across much of the moist sector. Increasing large-scale ascent ahead of the approaching system is forecast to be sufficient for the development of scattered thunderstorms. Forecast soundings in north-central Illinois, along and near the moist axis, by 03Z/Wednesday have 0-6 km shear in the 55 to 65 knot range, with 700-500 mb lapse rates of 7.5 to 8 C/km. This should be enough for strong to severe updrafts. Isolated wind damage, hail and a possibly a few tornadoes are expected to be the primary threats. Although a Slight Risk appears warranted for this event, there is still uncertainty concerning the magnitude of the severe threat. This uncertainty is mainly due to the weak moisture return, and to the later timing of the convective potential, which is forecast to be mostly in the evening and overnight period. ..Broyles.. 02/25/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0234 AM CST Sun Feb 25 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE OZARKS...MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHWESTERN GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms, associated with isolated wind damage, hail and possibly a few tornadoes, will be possible from late Tuesday afternoon, into the evening and overnight from parts of the Ozarks into the mid Mississippi Valley, and southwestern Great Lakes. ...Ozarks/Mid Mississippi Valley/Southwestern Great Lakes... An upper-level trough will move eastward into the central Rockies and northern Plains on Tuesday, as mid-level flow remains west-southwesterly across much of the central and eastern U.S. Well ahead of the system, moisture will return north-northeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley and southwestern Great Lakes, reaching as far north as southern lower Michigan. A cold front is forecast to move southeastward into the mid to upper Mississippi Valley. Destabilization ahead of the front, along with increasing low-level convergence, will likely result in thunderstorm development by early evening. Thunderstorms are expected to first initiate in parts of central Illinois and north-central Indiana. Convective coverage is expected to increase through the evening, as storms develop ahead of the front, southward into parts of the mid Mississippi Valley and northern Ozarks. For this event, low-level moisture return is forecast to be weak, with surface dewpoints only increasing into the upper 50s and lower 60s F across parts of the mid Mississippi. For this reason, MLCAPE is forecast to peak only in the 500 to 1000 J/kg range across much of the moist sector. Increasing large-scale ascent ahead of the approaching system is forecast to be sufficient for the development of scattered thunderstorms. Forecast soundings in north-central Illinois, along and near the moist axis, by 03Z/Wednesday have 0-6 km shear in the 55 to 65 knot range, with 700-500 mb lapse rates of 7.5 to 8 C/km. This should be enough for strong to severe updrafts. Isolated wind damage, hail and a possibly a few tornadoes are expected to be the primary threats. Although a Slight Risk appears warranted for this event, there is still uncertainty concerning the magnitude of the severe threat. This uncertainty is mainly due to the weak moisture return, and to the later timing of the convective potential, which is forecast to be mostly in the evening and overnight period. ..Broyles.. 02/25/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0234 AM CST Sun Feb 25 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE OZARKS...MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHWESTERN GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms, associated with isolated wind damage, hail and possibly a few tornadoes, will be possible from late Tuesday afternoon, into the evening and overnight from parts of the Ozarks into the mid Mississippi Valley, and southwestern Great Lakes. ...Ozarks/Mid Mississippi Valley/Southwestern Great Lakes... An upper-level trough will move eastward into the central Rockies and northern Plains on Tuesday, as mid-level flow remains west-southwesterly across much of the central and eastern U.S. Well ahead of the system, moisture will return north-northeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley and southwestern Great Lakes, reaching as far north as southern lower Michigan. A cold front is forecast to move southeastward into the mid to upper Mississippi Valley. Destabilization ahead of the front, along with increasing low-level convergence, will likely result in thunderstorm development by early evening. Thunderstorms are expected to first initiate in parts of central Illinois and north-central Indiana. Convective coverage is expected to increase through the evening, as storms develop ahead of the front, southward into parts of the mid Mississippi Valley and northern Ozarks. For this event, low-level moisture return is forecast to be weak, with surface dewpoints only increasing into the upper 50s and lower 60s F across parts of the mid Mississippi. For this reason, MLCAPE is forecast to peak only in the 500 to 1000 J/kg range across much of the moist sector. Increasing large-scale ascent ahead of the approaching system is forecast to be sufficient for the development of scattered thunderstorms. Forecast soundings in north-central Illinois, along and near the moist axis, by 03Z/Wednesday have 0-6 km shear in the 55 to 65 knot range, with 700-500 mb lapse rates of 7.5 to 8 C/km. This should be enough for strong to severe updrafts. Isolated wind damage, hail and a possibly a few tornadoes are expected to be the primary threats. Although a Slight Risk appears warranted for this event, there is still uncertainty concerning the magnitude of the severe threat. This uncertainty is mainly due to the weak moisture return, and to the later timing of the convective potential, which is forecast to be mostly in the evening and overnight period. ..Broyles.. 02/25/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CST Sun Feb 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO WEST TEXAS AND THE PANHANDLE.... ...Synopsis... Split mid-level flow over the western and central US will gradually coalesce into broad and strong southwesterly flow as a Pacific trough digs south over the northern Great Basin. Several weak perturbations within the amplified sub-tropical jet will move across the southern and central Rockies intensifying a robust surface lee trough. Increasing downslope pressure gradients and momentum transfer from the flow aloft will bolster strong surface winds across the southern and central High Plains. With unusually warm and dry conditions also present, widespread elevated and critical fire-weather conditions are expected over the southern High Plains. ...Southern and central High Plains... As flow aloft strengthens and gradually becomes southwesterly, lee troughing should rapidly intensify across the southern and central High Plains. Downslope winds of 25-30 mph appear likely Monday afternoon across parts of eastern NM, southeastern CO and western TX/OK. Coincident with temperatures in the 70s to 80s F, afternoon RH values will fall to 15-20%. Intensifying dryness in area fuels is expected to support the risk for fire spread in combination with the aforementioned meteorological conditions. Widespread elevated to critical fire-weather concerns appear likely for the southern and central High Plains. Localized fire-weather concerns are also possible farther north into parts of eastern WY and western NE, though fuels here are less receptive and uncertainty is higher. ..Lyons.. 02/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CST Sun Feb 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO WEST TEXAS AND THE PANHANDLE.... ...Synopsis... Split mid-level flow over the western and central US will gradually coalesce into broad and strong southwesterly flow as a Pacific trough digs south over the northern Great Basin. Several weak perturbations within the amplified sub-tropical jet will move across the southern and central Rockies intensifying a robust surface lee trough. Increasing downslope pressure gradients and momentum transfer from the flow aloft will bolster strong surface winds across the southern and central High Plains. With unusually warm and dry conditions also present, widespread elevated and critical fire-weather conditions are expected over the southern High Plains. ...Southern and central High Plains... As flow aloft strengthens and gradually becomes southwesterly, lee troughing should rapidly intensify across the southern and central High Plains. Downslope winds of 25-30 mph appear likely Monday afternoon across parts of eastern NM, southeastern CO and western TX/OK. Coincident with temperatures in the 70s to 80s F, afternoon RH values will fall to 15-20%. Intensifying dryness in area fuels is expected to support the risk for fire spread in combination with the aforementioned meteorological conditions. Widespread elevated to critical fire-weather concerns appear likely for the southern and central High Plains. Localized fire-weather concerns are also possible farther north into parts of eastern WY and western NE, though fuels here are less receptive and uncertainty is higher. ..Lyons.. 02/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CST Sun Feb 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO WEST TEXAS AND THE PANHANDLE.... ...Synopsis... Split mid-level flow over the western and central US will gradually coalesce into broad and strong southwesterly flow as a Pacific trough digs south over the northern Great Basin. Several weak perturbations within the amplified sub-tropical jet will move across the southern and central Rockies intensifying a robust surface lee trough. Increasing downslope pressure gradients and momentum transfer from the flow aloft will bolster strong surface winds across the southern and central High Plains. With unusually warm and dry conditions also present, widespread elevated and critical fire-weather conditions are expected over the southern High Plains. ...Southern and central High Plains... As flow aloft strengthens and gradually becomes southwesterly, lee troughing should rapidly intensify across the southern and central High Plains. Downslope winds of 25-30 mph appear likely Monday afternoon across parts of eastern NM, southeastern CO and western TX/OK. Coincident with temperatures in the 70s to 80s F, afternoon RH values will fall to 15-20%. Intensifying dryness in area fuels is expected to support the risk for fire spread in combination with the aforementioned meteorological conditions. Widespread elevated to critical fire-weather concerns appear likely for the southern and central High Plains. Localized fire-weather concerns are also possible farther north into parts of eastern WY and western NE, though fuels here are less receptive and uncertainty is higher. ..Lyons.. 02/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CST Sun Feb 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO WEST TEXAS AND THE PANHANDLE.... ...Synopsis... Split mid-level flow over the western and central US will gradually coalesce into broad and strong southwesterly flow as a Pacific trough digs south over the northern Great Basin. Several weak perturbations within the amplified sub-tropical jet will move across the southern and central Rockies intensifying a robust surface lee trough. Increasing downslope pressure gradients and momentum transfer from the flow aloft will bolster strong surface winds across the southern and central High Plains. With unusually warm and dry conditions also present, widespread elevated and critical fire-weather conditions are expected over the southern High Plains. ...Southern and central High Plains... As flow aloft strengthens and gradually becomes southwesterly, lee troughing should rapidly intensify across the southern and central High Plains. Downslope winds of 25-30 mph appear likely Monday afternoon across parts of eastern NM, southeastern CO and western TX/OK. Coincident with temperatures in the 70s to 80s F, afternoon RH values will fall to 15-20%. Intensifying dryness in area fuels is expected to support the risk for fire spread in combination with the aforementioned meteorological conditions. Widespread elevated to critical fire-weather concerns appear likely for the southern and central High Plains. Localized fire-weather concerns are also possible farther north into parts of eastern WY and western NE, though fuels here are less receptive and uncertainty is higher. ..Lyons.. 02/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more