Severe Storms

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CST Sun Feb 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO WEST TEXAS AND THE PANHANDLE.... ...Synopsis... Split mid-level flow over the western and central US will gradually coalesce into broad and strong southwesterly flow as a Pacific trough digs south over the northern Great Basin. Several weak perturbations within the amplified sub-tropical jet will move across the southern and central Rockies intensifying a robust surface lee trough. Increasing downslope pressure gradients and momentum transfer from the flow aloft will bolster strong surface winds across the southern and central High Plains. With unusually warm and dry conditions also present, widespread elevated and critical fire-weather conditions are expected over the southern High Plains. ...Southern and central High Plains... As flow aloft strengthens and gradually becomes southwesterly, lee troughing should rapidly intensify across the southern and central High Plains. Downslope winds of 25-30 mph appear likely Monday afternoon across parts of eastern NM, southeastern CO and western TX/OK. Coincident with temperatures in the 70s to 80s F, afternoon RH values will fall to 15-20%. Intensifying dryness in area fuels is expected to support the risk for fire spread in combination with the aforementioned meteorological conditions. Widespread elevated to critical fire-weather concerns appear likely for the southern and central High Plains. Localized fire-weather concerns are also possible farther north into parts of eastern WY and western NE, though fuels here are less receptive and uncertainty is higher. ..Lyons.. 02/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CST Sun Feb 25 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...Synopsis... Split flow aloft will continue to strengthen over much of the western and central US before turning more zonal with time. Several small perturbations within the southern branch of the strong flow will cross the southern Rockies strengthening a lee trough. Downslope winds across parts of the southern High Plains will likely support elevated to near-critical fire-weather conditions. ...Southwest and Southern High Plains... Northwest flow aloft is forecast to intensify over parts of the Southwest and southern High Plains through D2/Sunday. Aided by the stronger flow aloft, and a lee trough, gusty downslope winds of 20-25 mph are possible across parts of eastern NM, southeastern CO and west TX. Afternoon RH values below 20% will also be likely with unseasonably warm temperatures. With little rain over this area in the past several weeks, emerging dryness within area fuels is expected to support a risk for elevated to near-critical fire-weather conditions through the afternoon hours. Strong winds and low humidity may also extend farther north across parts of eastern CO and southeastern WY where strong gusts are expected through terrain gaps. While meteorological conditions appear likely to support some risk for critical fire-weather conditions, area fuels remain only modestly receptive. Uncertainty on fuel availability is high suggesting concerns will likely remain more localized. ..Lyons.. 02/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CST Sun Feb 25 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...Synopsis... Split flow aloft will continue to strengthen over much of the western and central US before turning more zonal with time. Several small perturbations within the southern branch of the strong flow will cross the southern Rockies strengthening a lee trough. Downslope winds across parts of the southern High Plains will likely support elevated to near-critical fire-weather conditions. ...Southwest and Southern High Plains... Northwest flow aloft is forecast to intensify over parts of the Southwest and southern High Plains through D2/Sunday. Aided by the stronger flow aloft, and a lee trough, gusty downslope winds of 20-25 mph are possible across parts of eastern NM, southeastern CO and west TX. Afternoon RH values below 20% will also be likely with unseasonably warm temperatures. With little rain over this area in the past several weeks, emerging dryness within area fuels is expected to support a risk for elevated to near-critical fire-weather conditions through the afternoon hours. Strong winds and low humidity may also extend farther north across parts of eastern CO and southeastern WY where strong gusts are expected through terrain gaps. While meteorological conditions appear likely to support some risk for critical fire-weather conditions, area fuels remain only modestly receptive. Uncertainty on fuel availability is high suggesting concerns will likely remain more localized. ..Lyons.. 02/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CST Sun Feb 25 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...Synopsis... Split flow aloft will continue to strengthen over much of the western and central US before turning more zonal with time. Several small perturbations within the southern branch of the strong flow will cross the southern Rockies strengthening a lee trough. Downslope winds across parts of the southern High Plains will likely support elevated to near-critical fire-weather conditions. ...Southwest and Southern High Plains... Northwest flow aloft is forecast to intensify over parts of the Southwest and southern High Plains through D2/Sunday. Aided by the stronger flow aloft, and a lee trough, gusty downslope winds of 20-25 mph are possible across parts of eastern NM, southeastern CO and west TX. Afternoon RH values below 20% will also be likely with unseasonably warm temperatures. With little rain over this area in the past several weeks, emerging dryness within area fuels is expected to support a risk for elevated to near-critical fire-weather conditions through the afternoon hours. Strong winds and low humidity may also extend farther north across parts of eastern CO and southeastern WY where strong gusts are expected through terrain gaps. While meteorological conditions appear likely to support some risk for critical fire-weather conditions, area fuels remain only modestly receptive. Uncertainty on fuel availability is high suggesting concerns will likely remain more localized. ..Lyons.. 02/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CST Sun Feb 25 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...Synopsis... Split flow aloft will continue to strengthen over much of the western and central US before turning more zonal with time. Several small perturbations within the southern branch of the strong flow will cross the southern Rockies strengthening a lee trough. Downslope winds across parts of the southern High Plains will likely support elevated to near-critical fire-weather conditions. ...Southwest and Southern High Plains... Northwest flow aloft is forecast to intensify over parts of the Southwest and southern High Plains through D2/Sunday. Aided by the stronger flow aloft, and a lee trough, gusty downslope winds of 20-25 mph are possible across parts of eastern NM, southeastern CO and west TX. Afternoon RH values below 20% will also be likely with unseasonably warm temperatures. With little rain over this area in the past several weeks, emerging dryness within area fuels is expected to support a risk for elevated to near-critical fire-weather conditions through the afternoon hours. Strong winds and low humidity may also extend farther north across parts of eastern CO and southeastern WY where strong gusts are expected through terrain gaps. While meteorological conditions appear likely to support some risk for critical fire-weather conditions, area fuels remain only modestly receptive. Uncertainty on fuel availability is high suggesting concerns will likely remain more localized. ..Lyons.. 02/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CST Sun Feb 25 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...Synopsis... Split flow aloft will continue to strengthen over much of the western and central US before turning more zonal with time. Several small perturbations within the southern branch of the strong flow will cross the southern Rockies strengthening a lee trough. Downslope winds across parts of the southern High Plains will likely support elevated to near-critical fire-weather conditions. ...Southwest and Southern High Plains... Northwest flow aloft is forecast to intensify over parts of the Southwest and southern High Plains through D2/Sunday. Aided by the stronger flow aloft, and a lee trough, gusty downslope winds of 20-25 mph are possible across parts of eastern NM, southeastern CO and west TX. Afternoon RH values below 20% will also be likely with unseasonably warm temperatures. With little rain over this area in the past several weeks, emerging dryness within area fuels is expected to support a risk for elevated to near-critical fire-weather conditions through the afternoon hours. Strong winds and low humidity may also extend farther north across parts of eastern CO and southeastern WY where strong gusts are expected through terrain gaps. While meteorological conditions appear likely to support some risk for critical fire-weather conditions, area fuels remain only modestly receptive. Uncertainty on fuel availability is high suggesting concerns will likely remain more localized. ..Lyons.. 02/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CST Sun Feb 25 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...Synopsis... Split flow aloft will continue to strengthen over much of the western and central US before turning more zonal with time. Several small perturbations within the southern branch of the strong flow will cross the southern Rockies strengthening a lee trough. Downslope winds across parts of the southern High Plains will likely support elevated to near-critical fire-weather conditions. ...Southwest and Southern High Plains... Northwest flow aloft is forecast to intensify over parts of the Southwest and southern High Plains through D2/Sunday. Aided by the stronger flow aloft, and a lee trough, gusty downslope winds of 20-25 mph are possible across parts of eastern NM, southeastern CO and west TX. Afternoon RH values below 20% will also be likely with unseasonably warm temperatures. With little rain over this area in the past several weeks, emerging dryness within area fuels is expected to support a risk for elevated to near-critical fire-weather conditions through the afternoon hours. Strong winds and low humidity may also extend farther north across parts of eastern CO and southeastern WY where strong gusts are expected through terrain gaps. While meteorological conditions appear likely to support some risk for critical fire-weather conditions, area fuels remain only modestly receptive. Uncertainty on fuel availability is high suggesting concerns will likely remain more localized. ..Lyons.. 02/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 AM CST Sun Feb 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Monday. ...Synopsis... Across the West, an upper-level trough initially over the Pacific Northwest is forecast to move east-southeastward through the day. An upper-level low initially off of the Baja California coast is forecast to evolve into an open wave and begin moving eastward, in response to the digging trough to the north. Weak convection related to these troughs will be possible across much of the West. At this time, the greatest relative threat of sporadic lightning flashes is expected near the Pacific Northwest coast (supported by very cold temperatures aloft), eastern Great Basin into the central Rockies (as ascent spreads east-southeastward with the upper trough), and in the vicinity of the Channel Islands offshore of southern CA (associated with the southernmost ejecting trough). Farther east, MUCAPE may increase into the 500-1500 J/kg range Monday night from eastern portions of the southern Plains into parts of the MS/OH Valleys and Great Lakes region, related to modest moisture return beneath steepening midlevel lapse rates. However, with moisture quality expected to be lackluster and large-scale ascent rather nebulous, lingering MUCINH may preclude vigorous deep convection across most of the region. A broad general thunderstorm area has been maintained with this outlook, though confidence is low regarding coverage and favored location of nocturnal storm development. If deep convection can be sustained overnight, then a strong storm or two capable of at least small hail could evolve prior to the end of the forecast period. ..Dean.. 02/25/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 AM CST Sun Feb 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Monday. ...Synopsis... Across the West, an upper-level trough initially over the Pacific Northwest is forecast to move east-southeastward through the day. An upper-level low initially off of the Baja California coast is forecast to evolve into an open wave and begin moving eastward, in response to the digging trough to the north. Weak convection related to these troughs will be possible across much of the West. At this time, the greatest relative threat of sporadic lightning flashes is expected near the Pacific Northwest coast (supported by very cold temperatures aloft), eastern Great Basin into the central Rockies (as ascent spreads east-southeastward with the upper trough), and in the vicinity of the Channel Islands offshore of southern CA (associated with the southernmost ejecting trough). Farther east, MUCAPE may increase into the 500-1500 J/kg range Monday night from eastern portions of the southern Plains into parts of the MS/OH Valleys and Great Lakes region, related to modest moisture return beneath steepening midlevel lapse rates. However, with moisture quality expected to be lackluster and large-scale ascent rather nebulous, lingering MUCINH may preclude vigorous deep convection across most of the region. A broad general thunderstorm area has been maintained with this outlook, though confidence is low regarding coverage and favored location of nocturnal storm development. If deep convection can be sustained overnight, then a strong storm or two capable of at least small hail could evolve prior to the end of the forecast period. ..Dean.. 02/25/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 AM CST Sun Feb 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Monday. ...Synopsis... Across the West, an upper-level trough initially over the Pacific Northwest is forecast to move east-southeastward through the day. An upper-level low initially off of the Baja California coast is forecast to evolve into an open wave and begin moving eastward, in response to the digging trough to the north. Weak convection related to these troughs will be possible across much of the West. At this time, the greatest relative threat of sporadic lightning flashes is expected near the Pacific Northwest coast (supported by very cold temperatures aloft), eastern Great Basin into the central Rockies (as ascent spreads east-southeastward with the upper trough), and in the vicinity of the Channel Islands offshore of southern CA (associated with the southernmost ejecting trough). Farther east, MUCAPE may increase into the 500-1500 J/kg range Monday night from eastern portions of the southern Plains into parts of the MS/OH Valleys and Great Lakes region, related to modest moisture return beneath steepening midlevel lapse rates. However, with moisture quality expected to be lackluster and large-scale ascent rather nebulous, lingering MUCINH may preclude vigorous deep convection across most of the region. A broad general thunderstorm area has been maintained with this outlook, though confidence is low regarding coverage and favored location of nocturnal storm development. If deep convection can be sustained overnight, then a strong storm or two capable of at least small hail could evolve prior to the end of the forecast period. ..Dean.. 02/25/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 AM CST Sun Feb 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Monday. ...Synopsis... Across the West, an upper-level trough initially over the Pacific Northwest is forecast to move east-southeastward through the day. An upper-level low initially off of the Baja California coast is forecast to evolve into an open wave and begin moving eastward, in response to the digging trough to the north. Weak convection related to these troughs will be possible across much of the West. At this time, the greatest relative threat of sporadic lightning flashes is expected near the Pacific Northwest coast (supported by very cold temperatures aloft), eastern Great Basin into the central Rockies (as ascent spreads east-southeastward with the upper trough), and in the vicinity of the Channel Islands offshore of southern CA (associated with the southernmost ejecting trough). Farther east, MUCAPE may increase into the 500-1500 J/kg range Monday night from eastern portions of the southern Plains into parts of the MS/OH Valleys and Great Lakes region, related to modest moisture return beneath steepening midlevel lapse rates. However, with moisture quality expected to be lackluster and large-scale ascent rather nebulous, lingering MUCINH may preclude vigorous deep convection across most of the region. A broad general thunderstorm area has been maintained with this outlook, though confidence is low regarding coverage and favored location of nocturnal storm development. If deep convection can be sustained overnight, then a strong storm or two capable of at least small hail could evolve prior to the end of the forecast period. ..Dean.. 02/25/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 AM CST Sun Feb 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Monday. ...Synopsis... Across the West, an upper-level trough initially over the Pacific Northwest is forecast to move east-southeastward through the day. An upper-level low initially off of the Baja California coast is forecast to evolve into an open wave and begin moving eastward, in response to the digging trough to the north. Weak convection related to these troughs will be possible across much of the West. At this time, the greatest relative threat of sporadic lightning flashes is expected near the Pacific Northwest coast (supported by very cold temperatures aloft), eastern Great Basin into the central Rockies (as ascent spreads east-southeastward with the upper trough), and in the vicinity of the Channel Islands offshore of southern CA (associated with the southernmost ejecting trough). Farther east, MUCAPE may increase into the 500-1500 J/kg range Monday night from eastern portions of the southern Plains into parts of the MS/OH Valleys and Great Lakes region, related to modest moisture return beneath steepening midlevel lapse rates. However, with moisture quality expected to be lackluster and large-scale ascent rather nebulous, lingering MUCINH may preclude vigorous deep convection across most of the region. A broad general thunderstorm area has been maintained with this outlook, though confidence is low regarding coverage and favored location of nocturnal storm development. If deep convection can be sustained overnight, then a strong storm or two capable of at least small hail could evolve prior to the end of the forecast period. ..Dean.. 02/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1124 PM CST Sat Feb 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may occur Sunday night across parts of coastal/northwest Washington. ...Pacific Northwest... Strong midlevel height falls (180m in 12hr) will spread across the Pacific Northwest later today in advance of a very cold upper trough. Latest model guidance suggests 500mb temperatures will decrease to less than -30C north of the sagging jet. This will encourage lapse rates to steepen such that surface-based parcels should become buoyant, primarily after 06z. Greatest instability will be near the coast where marine-influenced boundary layer may contribute to SBCAPE on the order of 100-200 J/kg. Forecast soundings suggest charge separation is possible as cloud tops could exceed 4km AGL, likely adequate for lightning. Will maintain thunder probabilities along the WA Coast to account for this late-night possibility. ..Darrow/Lyons.. 02/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1124 PM CST Sat Feb 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may occur Sunday night across parts of coastal/northwest Washington. ...Pacific Northwest... Strong midlevel height falls (180m in 12hr) will spread across the Pacific Northwest later today in advance of a very cold upper trough. Latest model guidance suggests 500mb temperatures will decrease to less than -30C north of the sagging jet. This will encourage lapse rates to steepen such that surface-based parcels should become buoyant, primarily after 06z. Greatest instability will be near the coast where marine-influenced boundary layer may contribute to SBCAPE on the order of 100-200 J/kg. Forecast soundings suggest charge separation is possible as cloud tops could exceed 4km AGL, likely adequate for lightning. Will maintain thunder probabilities along the WA Coast to account for this late-night possibility. ..Darrow/Lyons.. 02/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1124 PM CST Sat Feb 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may occur Sunday night across parts of coastal/northwest Washington. ...Pacific Northwest... Strong midlevel height falls (180m in 12hr) will spread across the Pacific Northwest later today in advance of a very cold upper trough. Latest model guidance suggests 500mb temperatures will decrease to less than -30C north of the sagging jet. This will encourage lapse rates to steepen such that surface-based parcels should become buoyant, primarily after 06z. Greatest instability will be near the coast where marine-influenced boundary layer may contribute to SBCAPE on the order of 100-200 J/kg. Forecast soundings suggest charge separation is possible as cloud tops could exceed 4km AGL, likely adequate for lightning. Will maintain thunder probabilities along the WA Coast to account for this late-night possibility. ..Darrow/Lyons.. 02/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1124 PM CST Sat Feb 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may occur Sunday night across parts of coastal/northwest Washington. ...Pacific Northwest... Strong midlevel height falls (180m in 12hr) will spread across the Pacific Northwest later today in advance of a very cold upper trough. Latest model guidance suggests 500mb temperatures will decrease to less than -30C north of the sagging jet. This will encourage lapse rates to steepen such that surface-based parcels should become buoyant, primarily after 06z. Greatest instability will be near the coast where marine-influenced boundary layer may contribute to SBCAPE on the order of 100-200 J/kg. Forecast soundings suggest charge separation is possible as cloud tops could exceed 4km AGL, likely adequate for lightning. Will maintain thunder probabilities along the WA Coast to account for this late-night possibility. ..Darrow/Lyons.. 02/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1124 PM CST Sat Feb 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may occur Sunday night across parts of coastal/northwest Washington. ...Pacific Northwest... Strong midlevel height falls (180m in 12hr) will spread across the Pacific Northwest later today in advance of a very cold upper trough. Latest model guidance suggests 500mb temperatures will decrease to less than -30C north of the sagging jet. This will encourage lapse rates to steepen such that surface-based parcels should become buoyant, primarily after 06z. Greatest instability will be near the coast where marine-influenced boundary layer may contribute to SBCAPE on the order of 100-200 J/kg. Forecast soundings suggest charge separation is possible as cloud tops could exceed 4km AGL, likely adequate for lightning. Will maintain thunder probabilities along the WA Coast to account for this late-night possibility. ..Darrow/Lyons.. 02/25/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0612 PM CST Sat Feb 24 2024 Valid 250100Z - 251200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast the rest of tonight. ...01z Update... Northwesterly flow is deepening across the Carolinas this evening as the primary corridor of low-level convergence focuses offshore in response to the progressive short-wave trough. While a few showers will linger across Coastal Carolinas this evening, the prospect for lightning is lessening with this activity given the weakening low-level lapse rates/buoyancy (nocturnal cooling) and downstream convergence. ..Darrow.. 02/25/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0612 PM CST Sat Feb 24 2024 Valid 250100Z - 251200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast the rest of tonight. ...01z Update... Northwesterly flow is deepening across the Carolinas this evening as the primary corridor of low-level convergence focuses offshore in response to the progressive short-wave trough. While a few showers will linger across Coastal Carolinas this evening, the prospect for lightning is lessening with this activity given the weakening low-level lapse rates/buoyancy (nocturnal cooling) and downstream convergence. ..Darrow.. 02/25/2024 Read more

No watches are valid as of Sat Feb 24 23:31:01 UTC 2024.