Severe Storms

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 PM CST Sun Feb 25 2024 Valid 252000Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may occur tonight across parts of coastal/northwest Washington. ...Discussion... No change was made to the previous convective outlook. ..Smith.. 02/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1021 AM CST Sun Feb 25 2024/ ...Synopsis... A split-flow pattern is present across the CONUS today with surface high pressure and a dry air mass in place across most of the country except for the Northwest. A mid-level trough will amplify across the Pacific Northwest through the period which will bring significant rain and mountain snow. As cold air overspreads the region tonight, enough destabilization may occur to support some lightning strikes with cellular convection across the ocean, but perhaps also inland across western Washington. Elsewhere, no thunderstorms are anticipated. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 PM CST Sun Feb 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND SOUTH PLAINS... The Elevated area has been expanded into more of the central Plains and Midwest. Surface winds should reach 15-20 mph ahead of the surface front with RH likely falling to around 20-25% (locally lower, particularly with westward extent). Elsewhere, only minor modifications were made based on the most recent guidance. ..Wendt.. 02/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CST Sun Feb 25 2024/ ...Synopsis... Split mid-level flow over the western and central US will gradually coalesce into broad and strong southwesterly flow as a Pacific trough digs south over the northern Great Basin. Several weak perturbations within the amplified sub-tropical jet will move across the southern and central Rockies intensifying a robust surface lee trough. Increasing downslope pressure gradients and momentum transfer from the flow aloft will bolster strong surface winds across the southern and central High Plains. With unusually warm and dry conditions also present, widespread elevated and critical fire-weather conditions are expected over the southern High Plains. ...Southern and central High Plains... As flow aloft strengthens and gradually becomes southwesterly, lee troughing should rapidly intensify across the southern and central High Plains. Downslope winds of 25-30 mph appear likely Monday afternoon across parts of eastern NM, southeastern CO and western TX/OK. Coincident with temperatures in the 70s to 80s F, afternoon RH values will fall to 15-20%. Intensifying dryness in area fuels is expected to support the risk for fire spread in combination with the aforementioned meteorological conditions. Widespread elevated to critical fire-weather concerns appear likely for the southern and central High Plains. Localized fire-weather concerns are also possible farther north into parts of eastern WY and western NE, though fuels here are less receptive and uncertainty is higher. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 PM CST Sun Feb 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND SOUTH PLAINS... The Elevated area has been expanded into more of the central Plains and Midwest. Surface winds should reach 15-20 mph ahead of the surface front with RH likely falling to around 20-25% (locally lower, particularly with westward extent). Elsewhere, only minor modifications were made based on the most recent guidance. ..Wendt.. 02/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CST Sun Feb 25 2024/ ...Synopsis... Split mid-level flow over the western and central US will gradually coalesce into broad and strong southwesterly flow as a Pacific trough digs south over the northern Great Basin. Several weak perturbations within the amplified sub-tropical jet will move across the southern and central Rockies intensifying a robust surface lee trough. Increasing downslope pressure gradients and momentum transfer from the flow aloft will bolster strong surface winds across the southern and central High Plains. With unusually warm and dry conditions also present, widespread elevated and critical fire-weather conditions are expected over the southern High Plains. ...Southern and central High Plains... As flow aloft strengthens and gradually becomes southwesterly, lee troughing should rapidly intensify across the southern and central High Plains. Downslope winds of 25-30 mph appear likely Monday afternoon across parts of eastern NM, southeastern CO and western TX/OK. Coincident with temperatures in the 70s to 80s F, afternoon RH values will fall to 15-20%. Intensifying dryness in area fuels is expected to support the risk for fire spread in combination with the aforementioned meteorological conditions. Widespread elevated to critical fire-weather concerns appear likely for the southern and central High Plains. Localized fire-weather concerns are also possible farther north into parts of eastern WY and western NE, though fuels here are less receptive and uncertainty is higher. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 PM CST Sun Feb 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND SOUTH PLAINS... The Elevated area has been expanded into more of the central Plains and Midwest. Surface winds should reach 15-20 mph ahead of the surface front with RH likely falling to around 20-25% (locally lower, particularly with westward extent). Elsewhere, only minor modifications were made based on the most recent guidance. ..Wendt.. 02/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CST Sun Feb 25 2024/ ...Synopsis... Split mid-level flow over the western and central US will gradually coalesce into broad and strong southwesterly flow as a Pacific trough digs south over the northern Great Basin. Several weak perturbations within the amplified sub-tropical jet will move across the southern and central Rockies intensifying a robust surface lee trough. Increasing downslope pressure gradients and momentum transfer from the flow aloft will bolster strong surface winds across the southern and central High Plains. With unusually warm and dry conditions also present, widespread elevated and critical fire-weather conditions are expected over the southern High Plains. ...Southern and central High Plains... As flow aloft strengthens and gradually becomes southwesterly, lee troughing should rapidly intensify across the southern and central High Plains. Downslope winds of 25-30 mph appear likely Monday afternoon across parts of eastern NM, southeastern CO and western TX/OK. Coincident with temperatures in the 70s to 80s F, afternoon RH values will fall to 15-20%. Intensifying dryness in area fuels is expected to support the risk for fire spread in combination with the aforementioned meteorological conditions. Widespread elevated to critical fire-weather concerns appear likely for the southern and central High Plains. Localized fire-weather concerns are also possible farther north into parts of eastern WY and western NE, though fuels here are less receptive and uncertainty is higher. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 PM CST Sun Feb 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND SOUTH PLAINS... The Elevated area has been expanded into more of the central Plains and Midwest. Surface winds should reach 15-20 mph ahead of the surface front with RH likely falling to around 20-25% (locally lower, particularly with westward extent). Elsewhere, only minor modifications were made based on the most recent guidance. ..Wendt.. 02/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CST Sun Feb 25 2024/ ...Synopsis... Split mid-level flow over the western and central US will gradually coalesce into broad and strong southwesterly flow as a Pacific trough digs south over the northern Great Basin. Several weak perturbations within the amplified sub-tropical jet will move across the southern and central Rockies intensifying a robust surface lee trough. Increasing downslope pressure gradients and momentum transfer from the flow aloft will bolster strong surface winds across the southern and central High Plains. With unusually warm and dry conditions also present, widespread elevated and critical fire-weather conditions are expected over the southern High Plains. ...Southern and central High Plains... As flow aloft strengthens and gradually becomes southwesterly, lee troughing should rapidly intensify across the southern and central High Plains. Downslope winds of 25-30 mph appear likely Monday afternoon across parts of eastern NM, southeastern CO and western TX/OK. Coincident with temperatures in the 70s to 80s F, afternoon RH values will fall to 15-20%. Intensifying dryness in area fuels is expected to support the risk for fire spread in combination with the aforementioned meteorological conditions. Widespread elevated to critical fire-weather concerns appear likely for the southern and central High Plains. Localized fire-weather concerns are also possible farther north into parts of eastern WY and western NE, though fuels here are less receptive and uncertainty is higher. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 PM CST Sun Feb 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND SOUTH PLAINS... The Elevated area has been expanded into more of the central Plains and Midwest. Surface winds should reach 15-20 mph ahead of the surface front with RH likely falling to around 20-25% (locally lower, particularly with westward extent). Elsewhere, only minor modifications were made based on the most recent guidance. ..Wendt.. 02/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CST Sun Feb 25 2024/ ...Synopsis... Split mid-level flow over the western and central US will gradually coalesce into broad and strong southwesterly flow as a Pacific trough digs south over the northern Great Basin. Several weak perturbations within the amplified sub-tropical jet will move across the southern and central Rockies intensifying a robust surface lee trough. Increasing downslope pressure gradients and momentum transfer from the flow aloft will bolster strong surface winds across the southern and central High Plains. With unusually warm and dry conditions also present, widespread elevated and critical fire-weather conditions are expected over the southern High Plains. ...Southern and central High Plains... As flow aloft strengthens and gradually becomes southwesterly, lee troughing should rapidly intensify across the southern and central High Plains. Downslope winds of 25-30 mph appear likely Monday afternoon across parts of eastern NM, southeastern CO and western TX/OK. Coincident with temperatures in the 70s to 80s F, afternoon RH values will fall to 15-20%. Intensifying dryness in area fuels is expected to support the risk for fire spread in combination with the aforementioned meteorological conditions. Widespread elevated to critical fire-weather concerns appear likely for the southern and central High Plains. Localized fire-weather concerns are also possible farther north into parts of eastern WY and western NE, though fuels here are less receptive and uncertainty is higher. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1116 AM CST Sun Feb 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Monday. ...Synopsis... The upper-air pattern on Monday will feature a split-flow regime over the West. A mid-level trough over the Pacific Northwest coast will amplify as it moves southeastward into the northern Rockies/northern Intermountain regions. A belt of strong subtropical flow will extend from the eastern Pacific east-northeastward into the Desert Southwest/south-central U.S. In the low levels, a surface low over the Upper Midwest will shift southeast, as a cold front pushes through the northern Rockies and the northern Great Plains. A warm conveyor belt farther east over the mid MS Valley will likely lead to isolated to widely scattered showers and a few thunderstorms developing within a broad zone of warm-air advection from the Mid South northward into the southern Great Lakes. Current indications by model guidance suggest only low thunderstorm probabilities across the southern Great Lakes Monday night, lending doubt to the need for low-severe probabilities. ..Smith.. 02/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1116 AM CST Sun Feb 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Monday. ...Synopsis... The upper-air pattern on Monday will feature a split-flow regime over the West. A mid-level trough over the Pacific Northwest coast will amplify as it moves southeastward into the northern Rockies/northern Intermountain regions. A belt of strong subtropical flow will extend from the eastern Pacific east-northeastward into the Desert Southwest/south-central U.S. In the low levels, a surface low over the Upper Midwest will shift southeast, as a cold front pushes through the northern Rockies and the northern Great Plains. A warm conveyor belt farther east over the mid MS Valley will likely lead to isolated to widely scattered showers and a few thunderstorms developing within a broad zone of warm-air advection from the Mid South northward into the southern Great Lakes. Current indications by model guidance suggest only low thunderstorm probabilities across the southern Great Lakes Monday night, lending doubt to the need for low-severe probabilities. ..Smith.. 02/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1116 AM CST Sun Feb 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Monday. ...Synopsis... The upper-air pattern on Monday will feature a split-flow regime over the West. A mid-level trough over the Pacific Northwest coast will amplify as it moves southeastward into the northern Rockies/northern Intermountain regions. A belt of strong subtropical flow will extend from the eastern Pacific east-northeastward into the Desert Southwest/south-central U.S. In the low levels, a surface low over the Upper Midwest will shift southeast, as a cold front pushes through the northern Rockies and the northern Great Plains. A warm conveyor belt farther east over the mid MS Valley will likely lead to isolated to widely scattered showers and a few thunderstorms developing within a broad zone of warm-air advection from the Mid South northward into the southern Great Lakes. Current indications by model guidance suggest only low thunderstorm probabilities across the southern Great Lakes Monday night, lending doubt to the need for low-severe probabilities. ..Smith.. 02/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1116 AM CST Sun Feb 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Monday. ...Synopsis... The upper-air pattern on Monday will feature a split-flow regime over the West. A mid-level trough over the Pacific Northwest coast will amplify as it moves southeastward into the northern Rockies/northern Intermountain regions. A belt of strong subtropical flow will extend from the eastern Pacific east-northeastward into the Desert Southwest/south-central U.S. In the low levels, a surface low over the Upper Midwest will shift southeast, as a cold front pushes through the northern Rockies and the northern Great Plains. A warm conveyor belt farther east over the mid MS Valley will likely lead to isolated to widely scattered showers and a few thunderstorms developing within a broad zone of warm-air advection from the Mid South northward into the southern Great Lakes. Current indications by model guidance suggest only low thunderstorm probabilities across the southern Great Lakes Monday night, lending doubt to the need for low-severe probabilities. ..Smith.. 02/25/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1051 AM CST Sun Feb 25 2024 Valid 251700Z - 261200Z The elevated area has been expanded based on observed conditions this morning as well as updated fuel information. ..Wendt.. 02/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CST Sun Feb 25 2024/ ...Synopsis... Split flow aloft will continue to strengthen over much of the western and central US before turning more zonal with time. Several small perturbations within the southern branch of the strong flow will cross the southern Rockies strengthening a lee trough. Downslope winds across parts of the southern High Plains will likely support elevated to near-critical fire-weather conditions. ...Southwest and Southern High Plains... Northwest flow aloft is forecast to intensify over parts of the Southwest and southern High Plains through D2/Sunday. Aided by the stronger flow aloft, and a lee trough, gusty downslope winds of 20-25 mph are possible across parts of eastern NM, southeastern CO and west TX. Afternoon RH values below 20% will also be likely with unseasonably warm temperatures. With little rain over this area in the past several weeks, emerging dryness within area fuels is expected to support a risk for elevated to near-critical fire-weather conditions through the afternoon hours. Strong winds and low humidity may also extend farther north across parts of eastern CO and southeastern WY where strong gusts are expected through terrain gaps. While meteorological conditions appear likely to support some risk for critical fire-weather conditions, area fuels remain only modestly receptive. Uncertainty on fuel availability is high suggesting concerns will likely remain more localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1051 AM CST Sun Feb 25 2024 Valid 251700Z - 261200Z The elevated area has been expanded based on observed conditions this morning as well as updated fuel information. ..Wendt.. 02/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CST Sun Feb 25 2024/ ...Synopsis... Split flow aloft will continue to strengthen over much of the western and central US before turning more zonal with time. Several small perturbations within the southern branch of the strong flow will cross the southern Rockies strengthening a lee trough. Downslope winds across parts of the southern High Plains will likely support elevated to near-critical fire-weather conditions. ...Southwest and Southern High Plains... Northwest flow aloft is forecast to intensify over parts of the Southwest and southern High Plains through D2/Sunday. Aided by the stronger flow aloft, and a lee trough, gusty downslope winds of 20-25 mph are possible across parts of eastern NM, southeastern CO and west TX. Afternoon RH values below 20% will also be likely with unseasonably warm temperatures. With little rain over this area in the past several weeks, emerging dryness within area fuels is expected to support a risk for elevated to near-critical fire-weather conditions through the afternoon hours. Strong winds and low humidity may also extend farther north across parts of eastern CO and southeastern WY where strong gusts are expected through terrain gaps. While meteorological conditions appear likely to support some risk for critical fire-weather conditions, area fuels remain only modestly receptive. Uncertainty on fuel availability is high suggesting concerns will likely remain more localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1051 AM CST Sun Feb 25 2024 Valid 251700Z - 261200Z The elevated area has been expanded based on observed conditions this morning as well as updated fuel information. ..Wendt.. 02/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CST Sun Feb 25 2024/ ...Synopsis... Split flow aloft will continue to strengthen over much of the western and central US before turning more zonal with time. Several small perturbations within the southern branch of the strong flow will cross the southern Rockies strengthening a lee trough. Downslope winds across parts of the southern High Plains will likely support elevated to near-critical fire-weather conditions. ...Southwest and Southern High Plains... Northwest flow aloft is forecast to intensify over parts of the Southwest and southern High Plains through D2/Sunday. Aided by the stronger flow aloft, and a lee trough, gusty downslope winds of 20-25 mph are possible across parts of eastern NM, southeastern CO and west TX. Afternoon RH values below 20% will also be likely with unseasonably warm temperatures. With little rain over this area in the past several weeks, emerging dryness within area fuels is expected to support a risk for elevated to near-critical fire-weather conditions through the afternoon hours. Strong winds and low humidity may also extend farther north across parts of eastern CO and southeastern WY where strong gusts are expected through terrain gaps. While meteorological conditions appear likely to support some risk for critical fire-weather conditions, area fuels remain only modestly receptive. Uncertainty on fuel availability is high suggesting concerns will likely remain more localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1051 AM CST Sun Feb 25 2024 Valid 251700Z - 261200Z The elevated area has been expanded based on observed conditions this morning as well as updated fuel information. ..Wendt.. 02/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CST Sun Feb 25 2024/ ...Synopsis... Split flow aloft will continue to strengthen over much of the western and central US before turning more zonal with time. Several small perturbations within the southern branch of the strong flow will cross the southern Rockies strengthening a lee trough. Downslope winds across parts of the southern High Plains will likely support elevated to near-critical fire-weather conditions. ...Southwest and Southern High Plains... Northwest flow aloft is forecast to intensify over parts of the Southwest and southern High Plains through D2/Sunday. Aided by the stronger flow aloft, and a lee trough, gusty downslope winds of 20-25 mph are possible across parts of eastern NM, southeastern CO and west TX. Afternoon RH values below 20% will also be likely with unseasonably warm temperatures. With little rain over this area in the past several weeks, emerging dryness within area fuels is expected to support a risk for elevated to near-critical fire-weather conditions through the afternoon hours. Strong winds and low humidity may also extend farther north across parts of eastern CO and southeastern WY where strong gusts are expected through terrain gaps. While meteorological conditions appear likely to support some risk for critical fire-weather conditions, area fuels remain only modestly receptive. Uncertainty on fuel availability is high suggesting concerns will likely remain more localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1021 AM CST Sun Feb 25 2024 Valid 251630Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may occur tonight across parts of coastal/northwest Washington. ...Synopsis... A split-flow pattern is present across the CONUS today with surface high pressure and a dry air mass in place across most of the country except for the Northwest. A mid-level trough will amplify across the Pacific Northwest through the period which will bring significant rain and mountain snow. As cold air overspreads the region tonight, enough destabilization may occur to support some lightning strikes with cellular convection across the ocean, but perhaps also inland across western Washington. Elsewhere, no thunderstorms are anticipated. ..Bentley.. 02/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1021 AM CST Sun Feb 25 2024 Valid 251630Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may occur tonight across parts of coastal/northwest Washington. ...Synopsis... A split-flow pattern is present across the CONUS today with surface high pressure and a dry air mass in place across most of the country except for the Northwest. A mid-level trough will amplify across the Pacific Northwest through the period which will bring significant rain and mountain snow. As cold air overspreads the region tonight, enough destabilization may occur to support some lightning strikes with cellular convection across the ocean, but perhaps also inland across western Washington. Elsewhere, no thunderstorms are anticipated. ..Bentley.. 02/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1021 AM CST Sun Feb 25 2024 Valid 251630Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may occur tonight across parts of coastal/northwest Washington. ...Synopsis... A split-flow pattern is present across the CONUS today with surface high pressure and a dry air mass in place across most of the country except for the Northwest. A mid-level trough will amplify across the Pacific Northwest through the period which will bring significant rain and mountain snow. As cold air overspreads the region tonight, enough destabilization may occur to support some lightning strikes with cellular convection across the ocean, but perhaps also inland across western Washington. Elsewhere, no thunderstorms are anticipated. ..Bentley.. 02/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1021 AM CST Sun Feb 25 2024 Valid 251630Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may occur tonight across parts of coastal/northwest Washington. ...Synopsis... A split-flow pattern is present across the CONUS today with surface high pressure and a dry air mass in place across most of the country except for the Northwest. A mid-level trough will amplify across the Pacific Northwest through the period which will bring significant rain and mountain snow. As cold air overspreads the region tonight, enough destabilization may occur to support some lightning strikes with cellular convection across the ocean, but perhaps also inland across western Washington. Elsewhere, no thunderstorms are anticipated. ..Bentley.. 02/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0625 AM CST Sun Feb 25 2024 Valid 251300Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may occur Sunday night across parts of coastal/northwest Washington. ...Discussion... The upper flow field across the U.S. will continue to trend toward an increasingly zonal configuration with time, as upper troughing continues to shift away from the East Coast into the western Atlantic. At the surface, high pressure will prevail across much of the country, along with generally dry/stable conditions. During the second half of the period, a short-wave trough digging southward along the British Columbia coast will reach the Pacific Northwest. Cold air aloft/steep lapse rates will likely yield weak destabilization late -- largely across the western Washington vicinity. As such, sporadic lighting may evolve with showery convection anticipated across this area. Elsewhere, thunderstorms are not expected. ..Goss/Broyles.. 02/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0625 AM CST Sun Feb 25 2024 Valid 251300Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may occur Sunday night across parts of coastal/northwest Washington. ...Discussion... The upper flow field across the U.S. will continue to trend toward an increasingly zonal configuration with time, as upper troughing continues to shift away from the East Coast into the western Atlantic. At the surface, high pressure will prevail across much of the country, along with generally dry/stable conditions. During the second half of the period, a short-wave trough digging southward along the British Columbia coast will reach the Pacific Northwest. Cold air aloft/steep lapse rates will likely yield weak destabilization late -- largely across the western Washington vicinity. As such, sporadic lighting may evolve with showery convection anticipated across this area. Elsewhere, thunderstorms are not expected. ..Goss/Broyles.. 02/25/2024 Read more