SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year 5 months ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CST Tue Feb 27 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA... ...Synopsis... Split mid-level flow will gradually consolidate as a Pacific trough merges with an increasingly strong subtropical jet stream over the central CONUS. Very strong westerly flow is expected over the Plains and Midwest, supporting dry and windy conditions. Widespread elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are excepted. ...Southern Plains... As the upper trough begins to move over the Plains, strong low-level flow is expected to develop by mid morning. Westerly winds of 20-25 mph, with gusts of 30-35 mph, are possible across parts of western and central OK and the TX Panhandle. Despite dry downsloping and the unusually warm temperatures, increasing mid and high-level cloud cover may limit diurnal RH minimums to near 20-25%. Still, widespread elevated to near/briefly critical fire-weather conditions appear likely given the increasingly strong wind gusts. Significant fire activity over the preceding days also suggests fuels are more receptive than some guidance indicated. Thus, greater confidence exists for critical conditions across parts of western and central OK and the eastern TX Panhandle where the strongest winds are expected to overlap more receptive fuels, despite marginal humidity. To the east, a pronounced low-level thermal ridge behind a surface trough will support afternoon RH values below 30% with southwest winds of 20-25 mph across the eastern Plains into western MO. While RH values are not overly dry, the strong winds and unusually warm temperatures should allow for widespread elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. Fire-weather concerns will begin to diminish later in the evening as a cold front rapidly moves south. Strong gusts may persist behind the front along with a rapid wind shift to north/northwesterly. Cooler temperatures and higher RH behind the front should quickly limit sustained fire-weather concerns through the overnight hours. ..Lyons.. 02/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year 5 months ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CST Tue Feb 27 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA... ...Synopsis... Split mid-level flow will gradually consolidate as a Pacific trough merges with an increasingly strong subtropical jet stream over the central CONUS. Very strong westerly flow is expected over the Plains and Midwest, supporting dry and windy conditions. Widespread elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are excepted. ...Southern Plains... As the upper trough begins to move over the Plains, strong low-level flow is expected to develop by mid morning. Westerly winds of 20-25 mph, with gusts of 30-35 mph, are possible across parts of western and central OK and the TX Panhandle. Despite dry downsloping and the unusually warm temperatures, increasing mid and high-level cloud cover may limit diurnal RH minimums to near 20-25%. Still, widespread elevated to near/briefly critical fire-weather conditions appear likely given the increasingly strong wind gusts. Significant fire activity over the preceding days also suggests fuels are more receptive than some guidance indicated. Thus, greater confidence exists for critical conditions across parts of western and central OK and the eastern TX Panhandle where the strongest winds are expected to overlap more receptive fuels, despite marginal humidity. To the east, a pronounced low-level thermal ridge behind a surface trough will support afternoon RH values below 30% with southwest winds of 20-25 mph across the eastern Plains into western MO. While RH values are not overly dry, the strong winds and unusually warm temperatures should allow for widespread elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. Fire-weather concerns will begin to diminish later in the evening as a cold front rapidly moves south. Strong gusts may persist behind the front along with a rapid wind shift to north/northwesterly. Cooler temperatures and higher RH behind the front should quickly limit sustained fire-weather concerns through the overnight hours. ..Lyons.. 02/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year 5 months ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CST Tue Feb 27 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA... ...Synopsis... Split mid-level flow will gradually consolidate as a Pacific trough merges with an increasingly strong subtropical jet stream over the central CONUS. Very strong westerly flow is expected over the Plains and Midwest, supporting dry and windy conditions. Widespread elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are excepted. ...Southern Plains... As the upper trough begins to move over the Plains, strong low-level flow is expected to develop by mid morning. Westerly winds of 20-25 mph, with gusts of 30-35 mph, are possible across parts of western and central OK and the TX Panhandle. Despite dry downsloping and the unusually warm temperatures, increasing mid and high-level cloud cover may limit diurnal RH minimums to near 20-25%. Still, widespread elevated to near/briefly critical fire-weather conditions appear likely given the increasingly strong wind gusts. Significant fire activity over the preceding days also suggests fuels are more receptive than some guidance indicated. Thus, greater confidence exists for critical conditions across parts of western and central OK and the eastern TX Panhandle where the strongest winds are expected to overlap more receptive fuels, despite marginal humidity. To the east, a pronounced low-level thermal ridge behind a surface trough will support afternoon RH values below 30% with southwest winds of 20-25 mph across the eastern Plains into western MO. While RH values are not overly dry, the strong winds and unusually warm temperatures should allow for widespread elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. Fire-weather concerns will begin to diminish later in the evening as a cold front rapidly moves south. Strong gusts may persist behind the front along with a rapid wind shift to north/northwesterly. Cooler temperatures and higher RH behind the front should quickly limit sustained fire-weather concerns through the overnight hours. ..Lyons.. 02/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year 5 months ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CST Tue Feb 27 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA... ...Synopsis... Split mid-level flow will gradually consolidate as a Pacific trough merges with an increasingly strong subtropical jet stream over the central CONUS. Very strong westerly flow is expected over the Plains and Midwest, supporting dry and windy conditions. Widespread elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are excepted. ...Southern Plains... As the upper trough begins to move over the Plains, strong low-level flow is expected to develop by mid morning. Westerly winds of 20-25 mph, with gusts of 30-35 mph, are possible across parts of western and central OK and the TX Panhandle. Despite dry downsloping and the unusually warm temperatures, increasing mid and high-level cloud cover may limit diurnal RH minimums to near 20-25%. Still, widespread elevated to near/briefly critical fire-weather conditions appear likely given the increasingly strong wind gusts. Significant fire activity over the preceding days also suggests fuels are more receptive than some guidance indicated. Thus, greater confidence exists for critical conditions across parts of western and central OK and the eastern TX Panhandle where the strongest winds are expected to overlap more receptive fuels, despite marginal humidity. To the east, a pronounced low-level thermal ridge behind a surface trough will support afternoon RH values below 30% with southwest winds of 20-25 mph across the eastern Plains into western MO. While RH values are not overly dry, the strong winds and unusually warm temperatures should allow for widespread elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. Fire-weather concerns will begin to diminish later in the evening as a cold front rapidly moves south. Strong gusts may persist behind the front along with a rapid wind shift to north/northwesterly. Cooler temperatures and higher RH behind the front should quickly limit sustained fire-weather concerns through the overnight hours. ..Lyons.. 02/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Feb 27, 2024 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

1 year 5 months ago
SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 AM CST Tue Feb 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will lift northeast over New England on Thursday while a shortwave upper trough weakens while shifting from the southern Plains to the Lower MS Valley. Meanwhile, a low-amplitude upper trough will move across the Pacific Northwest. A dearth of boundary-layer moisture is forecast in the wake of a cold frontal passage in the Day 2/Wed time period. However, midlevel moisture will increase across parts of TX into the Lower MS Valley ahead of the Plains shortwave trough. Modest midlevel lapse rates will also be present, providing support for weak elevated instability overnight. This should allow for isolated thunderstorms from east TX into parts the Lower MS Valley, though severe storms are not expected. Additional isolated thunderstorms are possible as the upper trough moves inland across the Pacific Northwest. ..Leitman.. 02/27/2024 Read more

SPC Feb 27, 2024 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

1 year 5 months ago
SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 AM CST Tue Feb 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will lift northeast over New England on Thursday while a shortwave upper trough weakens while shifting from the southern Plains to the Lower MS Valley. Meanwhile, a low-amplitude upper trough will move across the Pacific Northwest. A dearth of boundary-layer moisture is forecast in the wake of a cold frontal passage in the Day 2/Wed time period. However, midlevel moisture will increase across parts of TX into the Lower MS Valley ahead of the Plains shortwave trough. Modest midlevel lapse rates will also be present, providing support for weak elevated instability overnight. This should allow for isolated thunderstorms from east TX into parts the Lower MS Valley, though severe storms are not expected. Additional isolated thunderstorms are possible as the upper trough moves inland across the Pacific Northwest. ..Leitman.. 02/27/2024 Read more

SPC Feb 27, 2024 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

1 year 5 months ago
SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 AM CST Tue Feb 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will lift northeast over New England on Thursday while a shortwave upper trough weakens while shifting from the southern Plains to the Lower MS Valley. Meanwhile, a low-amplitude upper trough will move across the Pacific Northwest. A dearth of boundary-layer moisture is forecast in the wake of a cold frontal passage in the Day 2/Wed time period. However, midlevel moisture will increase across parts of TX into the Lower MS Valley ahead of the Plains shortwave trough. Modest midlevel lapse rates will also be present, providing support for weak elevated instability overnight. This should allow for isolated thunderstorms from east TX into parts the Lower MS Valley, though severe storms are not expected. Additional isolated thunderstorms are possible as the upper trough moves inland across the Pacific Northwest. ..Leitman.. 02/27/2024 Read more

SPC Feb 27, 2024 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

1 year 5 months ago
SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 AM CST Tue Feb 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will lift northeast over New England on Thursday while a shortwave upper trough weakens while shifting from the southern Plains to the Lower MS Valley. Meanwhile, a low-amplitude upper trough will move across the Pacific Northwest. A dearth of boundary-layer moisture is forecast in the wake of a cold frontal passage in the Day 2/Wed time period. However, midlevel moisture will increase across parts of TX into the Lower MS Valley ahead of the Plains shortwave trough. Modest midlevel lapse rates will also be present, providing support for weak elevated instability overnight. This should allow for isolated thunderstorms from east TX into parts the Lower MS Valley, though severe storms are not expected. Additional isolated thunderstorms are possible as the upper trough moves inland across the Pacific Northwest. ..Leitman.. 02/27/2024 Read more

SPC Feb 27, 2024 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

1 year 5 months ago
SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 AM CST Tue Feb 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will lift northeast over New England on Thursday while a shortwave upper trough weakens while shifting from the southern Plains to the Lower MS Valley. Meanwhile, a low-amplitude upper trough will move across the Pacific Northwest. A dearth of boundary-layer moisture is forecast in the wake of a cold frontal passage in the Day 2/Wed time period. However, midlevel moisture will increase across parts of TX into the Lower MS Valley ahead of the Plains shortwave trough. Modest midlevel lapse rates will also be present, providing support for weak elevated instability overnight. This should allow for isolated thunderstorms from east TX into parts the Lower MS Valley, though severe storms are not expected. Additional isolated thunderstorms are possible as the upper trough moves inland across the Pacific Northwest. ..Leitman.. 02/27/2024 Read more

SPC Feb 27, 2024 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

1 year 5 months ago
SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 AM CST Tue Feb 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will lift northeast over New England on Thursday while a shortwave upper trough weakens while shifting from the southern Plains to the Lower MS Valley. Meanwhile, a low-amplitude upper trough will move across the Pacific Northwest. A dearth of boundary-layer moisture is forecast in the wake of a cold frontal passage in the Day 2/Wed time period. However, midlevel moisture will increase across parts of TX into the Lower MS Valley ahead of the Plains shortwave trough. Modest midlevel lapse rates will also be present, providing support for weak elevated instability overnight. This should allow for isolated thunderstorms from east TX into parts the Lower MS Valley, though severe storms are not expected. Additional isolated thunderstorms are possible as the upper trough moves inland across the Pacific Northwest. ..Leitman.. 02/27/2024 Read more

SPC MD 158

1 year 5 months ago
MD 0158 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR EASTERN MISSOURI ACROSS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND TOWARD THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY
Mesoscale Discussion 0158 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 AM CST Tue Feb 27 2024 Areas affected...eastern Missouri across southern Illinois and toward the lower Ohio Valley Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 270600Z - 270800Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Storms may eventually form within a west-east oriented zone as midlevel convection moves out of Missouri and toward the lower Ohio Valley. Marginal hail or gusty winds may occur later tonight. DISCUSSION...Satellite and radar trends indicate gradually increasing midlevel convection over central MO, near the midlevel temperature gradient. Though no lightning has been observed, models do support increasing trends as the activity possibly interacts with increasing low-level moisture across the MS/OH Valleys. If the area of convection can increase in size and intensity, gusty winds and/or marginal hail could develop, as lapse rates are very steep aloft, and deep-layer shear is strong. In general, the activity is expected to remain elevated, barring any eventual cold pool from aggregating showers or storms. As such, limited severe potential exists in the near term, but trends will be monitored tonight. ..Jewell/Edwards.. 02/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...SGF... LAT...LON 37589094 37679122 37939178 38139187 38349177 38509152 38479067 38458902 38288771 38018725 37748709 37358718 37158742 37198806 37338904 37589094 Read more

SPC Feb 27, 2024 0700 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

1 year 5 months ago
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 AM CST Tue Feb 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WEDNESDAY MORNING... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will pose a risk of damaging gusts Wednesday morning from eastern Kentucky into far southern Ohio and West Virginia. ...Central Appalachians... A narrow corridor of strongly forced convection will be ongoing Wednesday morning along a cold front from central KY into southeast OH. Strong vertical shear will be present, with a 50-60 kt southwesterly 850 mb jet overspreading the region ahead of the main upper trough over the Great Lakes and Mid-MS Valley. Modest midlevel lapse rates will be in place, though boundary-layer dewpoints generally in the 55-59 F range will largely limit stronger surface-based instability. Still, around 150-400 J/kg MLCAPE is forecast, supporting isolated thunderstorms along the strongly forced line of convection. Background gradient winds will already be strong in the vicinity of the front, but a few convectively enhanced damaging gusts are possible for a few hours during the morning. More focused large-scale ascent will lift northeast with time and instability will generally wane with eastward extent as convection develops eastward through the afternoon. ..Leitman.. 02/27/2024 Read more

SPC Feb 27, 2024 0700 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

1 year 5 months ago
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 AM CST Tue Feb 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WEDNESDAY MORNING... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will pose a risk of damaging gusts Wednesday morning from eastern Kentucky into far southern Ohio and West Virginia. ...Central Appalachians... A narrow corridor of strongly forced convection will be ongoing Wednesday morning along a cold front from central KY into southeast OH. Strong vertical shear will be present, with a 50-60 kt southwesterly 850 mb jet overspreading the region ahead of the main upper trough over the Great Lakes and Mid-MS Valley. Modest midlevel lapse rates will be in place, though boundary-layer dewpoints generally in the 55-59 F range will largely limit stronger surface-based instability. Still, around 150-400 J/kg MLCAPE is forecast, supporting isolated thunderstorms along the strongly forced line of convection. Background gradient winds will already be strong in the vicinity of the front, but a few convectively enhanced damaging gusts are possible for a few hours during the morning. More focused large-scale ascent will lift northeast with time and instability will generally wane with eastward extent as convection develops eastward through the afternoon. ..Leitman.. 02/27/2024 Read more

SPC Feb 27, 2024 0700 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

1 year 5 months ago
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 AM CST Tue Feb 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WEDNESDAY MORNING... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will pose a risk of damaging gusts Wednesday morning from eastern Kentucky into far southern Ohio and West Virginia. ...Central Appalachians... A narrow corridor of strongly forced convection will be ongoing Wednesday morning along a cold front from central KY into southeast OH. Strong vertical shear will be present, with a 50-60 kt southwesterly 850 mb jet overspreading the region ahead of the main upper trough over the Great Lakes and Mid-MS Valley. Modest midlevel lapse rates will be in place, though boundary-layer dewpoints generally in the 55-59 F range will largely limit stronger surface-based instability. Still, around 150-400 J/kg MLCAPE is forecast, supporting isolated thunderstorms along the strongly forced line of convection. Background gradient winds will already be strong in the vicinity of the front, but a few convectively enhanced damaging gusts are possible for a few hours during the morning. More focused large-scale ascent will lift northeast with time and instability will generally wane with eastward extent as convection develops eastward through the afternoon. ..Leitman.. 02/27/2024 Read more

SPC Feb 27, 2024 0700 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

1 year 5 months ago
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 AM CST Tue Feb 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WEDNESDAY MORNING... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will pose a risk of damaging gusts Wednesday morning from eastern Kentucky into far southern Ohio and West Virginia. ...Central Appalachians... A narrow corridor of strongly forced convection will be ongoing Wednesday morning along a cold front from central KY into southeast OH. Strong vertical shear will be present, with a 50-60 kt southwesterly 850 mb jet overspreading the region ahead of the main upper trough over the Great Lakes and Mid-MS Valley. Modest midlevel lapse rates will be in place, though boundary-layer dewpoints generally in the 55-59 F range will largely limit stronger surface-based instability. Still, around 150-400 J/kg MLCAPE is forecast, supporting isolated thunderstorms along the strongly forced line of convection. Background gradient winds will already be strong in the vicinity of the front, but a few convectively enhanced damaging gusts are possible for a few hours during the morning. More focused large-scale ascent will lift northeast with time and instability will generally wane with eastward extent as convection develops eastward through the afternoon. ..Leitman.. 02/27/2024 Read more

SPC Feb 27, 2024 0700 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

1 year 5 months ago
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 AM CST Tue Feb 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WEDNESDAY MORNING... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will pose a risk of damaging gusts Wednesday morning from eastern Kentucky into far southern Ohio and West Virginia. ...Central Appalachians... A narrow corridor of strongly forced convection will be ongoing Wednesday morning along a cold front from central KY into southeast OH. Strong vertical shear will be present, with a 50-60 kt southwesterly 850 mb jet overspreading the region ahead of the main upper trough over the Great Lakes and Mid-MS Valley. Modest midlevel lapse rates will be in place, though boundary-layer dewpoints generally in the 55-59 F range will largely limit stronger surface-based instability. Still, around 150-400 J/kg MLCAPE is forecast, supporting isolated thunderstorms along the strongly forced line of convection. Background gradient winds will already be strong in the vicinity of the front, but a few convectively enhanced damaging gusts are possible for a few hours during the morning. More focused large-scale ascent will lift northeast with time and instability will generally wane with eastward extent as convection develops eastward through the afternoon. ..Leitman.. 02/27/2024 Read more

SPC Feb 27, 2024 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

1 year 5 months ago
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1156 PM CST Mon Feb 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID MS AND LOWER OH VALLEYS INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms, associated with large hail (some 2 inches diameter), damaging gusts, and a few tornadoes will be possible from late this afternoon into the evening and overnight, from parts of the mid Mississippi Valley to the Ohio Valley and southern Great Lakes. ...Synopsis... Low-amplitude, split mid-level flow over much of the central and western CONUS will gradually consolidate and amplify through the forecast period, as a northern-stream shortwave trough merges with strong southwesterly flow from the southern stream. Multiple weak perturbations embedded within the increasingly strong southern-stream flow ahead of the main vort max will aid in deepening a broad surface cyclone along a cold front over the northern Plains. As the surface low and trailing front advance, warm advection will draw limited, but sufficient, moisture northward into the lower OH Valley and Great Lakes. Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible ahead of the low and along the trailing front through early Wednesday. ...Mid MS and Lower OH Valley... Early in the forecast period, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms may be ongoing within a strong low-level warm advection regime over the lower OH Valley. Ahead of the main surge of deeper surface moisture, these storms are expected to remain primarily elevated through the mid morning. Elevated buoyancy, steep lapse rates and sufficient vertical shear for supercells may support a conditional risk for large hail through mid morning. Continued warm advection should gradually transport upper 50s to low 60s F surface dewpoints northward into parts of southern and central IL, IN and western OH by mid afternoon. A diffuse moisture gradient along a surface pressure trough/weak dryline should become established across western/central IL into far eastern MO by late afternoon. Strong surface heating and confluence along this feature may support isolated convective development by 21-00z across central/northern IL. At the same time, warm advection along an expected differential-heating zone near the nose of the returning surface moisture may allow for scattered thunderstorm development across portions of northern IN, southern lower MI and northwestern OH. Model soundings show moderate MLCAPE (1500-2000 J/kg) and strong effective shear of 40-50 kt favorable for supercells. A prominent EML for February, with lapse rates of 8 C/km, will favor strong updrafts with efficient hail growth and a risk for significant hail. Later in the evening, the approach of the deepening mid-level trough and surface pressure falls ahead of the surface low across northern IL will yield increasing mass response across the warm sector. Model soundings show enlarged low-level hodographs potentially supporting a few tornadoes and damaging gusts. As the cold front and low move eastward, additional storm development is possible along the surface pressure trough and the surging cold front across portions of far eastern MO and southern IL. Uncertainty on storm mode and coverage remains fairly high, with some CAM solutions suggesting more isolated development ahead of the line, while other show mostly linear growth along the front. Regardless, these storms should continue eastward overnight across southern IN, northern KY and into southwestern OH with the potential for hail and damaging gusts. Should more discrete development occur and be maintained ahead of the building squall line, increasingly strong low-level shear (0-1km SRH of 250-400 m2/s2) could support a risk for tornadoes. The severe threat should gradually diminish into Wednesday morning as the frontal squall line pushes eastward into parts of eastern OH and the central Appalachians with decreasing buoyancy. ..Lyons/Darrow.. 02/27/2024 Read more

SPC Feb 27, 2024 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

1 year 5 months ago
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1156 PM CST Mon Feb 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID MS AND LOWER OH VALLEYS INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms, associated with large hail (some 2 inches diameter), damaging gusts, and a few tornadoes will be possible from late this afternoon into the evening and overnight, from parts of the mid Mississippi Valley to the Ohio Valley and southern Great Lakes. ...Synopsis... Low-amplitude, split mid-level flow over much of the central and western CONUS will gradually consolidate and amplify through the forecast period, as a northern-stream shortwave trough merges with strong southwesterly flow from the southern stream. Multiple weak perturbations embedded within the increasingly strong southern-stream flow ahead of the main vort max will aid in deepening a broad surface cyclone along a cold front over the northern Plains. As the surface low and trailing front advance, warm advection will draw limited, but sufficient, moisture northward into the lower OH Valley and Great Lakes. Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible ahead of the low and along the trailing front through early Wednesday. ...Mid MS and Lower OH Valley... Early in the forecast period, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms may be ongoing within a strong low-level warm advection regime over the lower OH Valley. Ahead of the main surge of deeper surface moisture, these storms are expected to remain primarily elevated through the mid morning. Elevated buoyancy, steep lapse rates and sufficient vertical shear for supercells may support a conditional risk for large hail through mid morning. Continued warm advection should gradually transport upper 50s to low 60s F surface dewpoints northward into parts of southern and central IL, IN and western OH by mid afternoon. A diffuse moisture gradient along a surface pressure trough/weak dryline should become established across western/central IL into far eastern MO by late afternoon. Strong surface heating and confluence along this feature may support isolated convective development by 21-00z across central/northern IL. At the same time, warm advection along an expected differential-heating zone near the nose of the returning surface moisture may allow for scattered thunderstorm development across portions of northern IN, southern lower MI and northwestern OH. Model soundings show moderate MLCAPE (1500-2000 J/kg) and strong effective shear of 40-50 kt favorable for supercells. A prominent EML for February, with lapse rates of 8 C/km, will favor strong updrafts with efficient hail growth and a risk for significant hail. Later in the evening, the approach of the deepening mid-level trough and surface pressure falls ahead of the surface low across northern IL will yield increasing mass response across the warm sector. Model soundings show enlarged low-level hodographs potentially supporting a few tornadoes and damaging gusts. As the cold front and low move eastward, additional storm development is possible along the surface pressure trough and the surging cold front across portions of far eastern MO and southern IL. Uncertainty on storm mode and coverage remains fairly high, with some CAM solutions suggesting more isolated development ahead of the line, while other show mostly linear growth along the front. Regardless, these storms should continue eastward overnight across southern IN, northern KY and into southwestern OH with the potential for hail and damaging gusts. Should more discrete development occur and be maintained ahead of the building squall line, increasingly strong low-level shear (0-1km SRH of 250-400 m2/s2) could support a risk for tornadoes. The severe threat should gradually diminish into Wednesday morning as the frontal squall line pushes eastward into parts of eastern OH and the central Appalachians with decreasing buoyancy. ..Lyons/Darrow.. 02/27/2024 Read more

SPC Feb 27, 2024 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

1 year 5 months ago
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1156 PM CST Mon Feb 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID MS AND LOWER OH VALLEYS INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms, associated with large hail (some 2 inches diameter), damaging gusts, and a few tornadoes will be possible from late this afternoon into the evening and overnight, from parts of the mid Mississippi Valley to the Ohio Valley and southern Great Lakes. ...Synopsis... Low-amplitude, split mid-level flow over much of the central and western CONUS will gradually consolidate and amplify through the forecast period, as a northern-stream shortwave trough merges with strong southwesterly flow from the southern stream. Multiple weak perturbations embedded within the increasingly strong southern-stream flow ahead of the main vort max will aid in deepening a broad surface cyclone along a cold front over the northern Plains. As the surface low and trailing front advance, warm advection will draw limited, but sufficient, moisture northward into the lower OH Valley and Great Lakes. Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible ahead of the low and along the trailing front through early Wednesday. ...Mid MS and Lower OH Valley... Early in the forecast period, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms may be ongoing within a strong low-level warm advection regime over the lower OH Valley. Ahead of the main surge of deeper surface moisture, these storms are expected to remain primarily elevated through the mid morning. Elevated buoyancy, steep lapse rates and sufficient vertical shear for supercells may support a conditional risk for large hail through mid morning. Continued warm advection should gradually transport upper 50s to low 60s F surface dewpoints northward into parts of southern and central IL, IN and western OH by mid afternoon. A diffuse moisture gradient along a surface pressure trough/weak dryline should become established across western/central IL into far eastern MO by late afternoon. Strong surface heating and confluence along this feature may support isolated convective development by 21-00z across central/northern IL. At the same time, warm advection along an expected differential-heating zone near the nose of the returning surface moisture may allow for scattered thunderstorm development across portions of northern IN, southern lower MI and northwestern OH. Model soundings show moderate MLCAPE (1500-2000 J/kg) and strong effective shear of 40-50 kt favorable for supercells. A prominent EML for February, with lapse rates of 8 C/km, will favor strong updrafts with efficient hail growth and a risk for significant hail. Later in the evening, the approach of the deepening mid-level trough and surface pressure falls ahead of the surface low across northern IL will yield increasing mass response across the warm sector. Model soundings show enlarged low-level hodographs potentially supporting a few tornadoes and damaging gusts. As the cold front and low move eastward, additional storm development is possible along the surface pressure trough and the surging cold front across portions of far eastern MO and southern IL. Uncertainty on storm mode and coverage remains fairly high, with some CAM solutions suggesting more isolated development ahead of the line, while other show mostly linear growth along the front. Regardless, these storms should continue eastward overnight across southern IN, northern KY and into southwestern OH with the potential for hail and damaging gusts. Should more discrete development occur and be maintained ahead of the building squall line, increasingly strong low-level shear (0-1km SRH of 250-400 m2/s2) could support a risk for tornadoes. The severe threat should gradually diminish into Wednesday morning as the frontal squall line pushes eastward into parts of eastern OH and the central Appalachians with decreasing buoyancy. ..Lyons/Darrow.. 02/27/2024 Read more

SPC Feb 27, 2024 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

1 year 5 months ago
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1156 PM CST Mon Feb 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID MS AND LOWER OH VALLEYS INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms, associated with large hail (some 2 inches diameter), damaging gusts, and a few tornadoes will be possible from late this afternoon into the evening and overnight, from parts of the mid Mississippi Valley to the Ohio Valley and southern Great Lakes. ...Synopsis... Low-amplitude, split mid-level flow over much of the central and western CONUS will gradually consolidate and amplify through the forecast period, as a northern-stream shortwave trough merges with strong southwesterly flow from the southern stream. Multiple weak perturbations embedded within the increasingly strong southern-stream flow ahead of the main vort max will aid in deepening a broad surface cyclone along a cold front over the northern Plains. As the surface low and trailing front advance, warm advection will draw limited, but sufficient, moisture northward into the lower OH Valley and Great Lakes. Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible ahead of the low and along the trailing front through early Wednesday. ...Mid MS and Lower OH Valley... Early in the forecast period, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms may be ongoing within a strong low-level warm advection regime over the lower OH Valley. Ahead of the main surge of deeper surface moisture, these storms are expected to remain primarily elevated through the mid morning. Elevated buoyancy, steep lapse rates and sufficient vertical shear for supercells may support a conditional risk for large hail through mid morning. Continued warm advection should gradually transport upper 50s to low 60s F surface dewpoints northward into parts of southern and central IL, IN and western OH by mid afternoon. A diffuse moisture gradient along a surface pressure trough/weak dryline should become established across western/central IL into far eastern MO by late afternoon. Strong surface heating and confluence along this feature may support isolated convective development by 21-00z across central/northern IL. At the same time, warm advection along an expected differential-heating zone near the nose of the returning surface moisture may allow for scattered thunderstorm development across portions of northern IN, southern lower MI and northwestern OH. Model soundings show moderate MLCAPE (1500-2000 J/kg) and strong effective shear of 40-50 kt favorable for supercells. A prominent EML for February, with lapse rates of 8 C/km, will favor strong updrafts with efficient hail growth and a risk for significant hail. Later in the evening, the approach of the deepening mid-level trough and surface pressure falls ahead of the surface low across northern IL will yield increasing mass response across the warm sector. Model soundings show enlarged low-level hodographs potentially supporting a few tornadoes and damaging gusts. As the cold front and low move eastward, additional storm development is possible along the surface pressure trough and the surging cold front across portions of far eastern MO and southern IL. Uncertainty on storm mode and coverage remains fairly high, with some CAM solutions suggesting more isolated development ahead of the line, while other show mostly linear growth along the front. Regardless, these storms should continue eastward overnight across southern IN, northern KY and into southwestern OH with the potential for hail and damaging gusts. Should more discrete development occur and be maintained ahead of the building squall line, increasingly strong low-level shear (0-1km SRH of 250-400 m2/s2) could support a risk for tornadoes. The severe threat should gradually diminish into Wednesday morning as the frontal squall line pushes eastward into parts of eastern OH and the central Appalachians with decreasing buoyancy. ..Lyons/Darrow.. 02/27/2024 Read more
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