Severe Storms

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...NORTHERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms are possible from the northern Rockies into the northern High Plains. Additional storms possible in parts of Nebraska/South Dakota. Severe winds and isolated large hail may occur. ...Northern Rockies/High Plains... A compact shortwave trough will move into the Northern Rockies. This feature will be well-timed with peak diurnal destabilization. Scattered thunderstorms appear likely within the higher terrain of central Idaho into southwest Montana. The main limiting factor for a greater severe risk will be the overall lack of moisture. Surface dewpoints may only be in the low/mid 40s F, though some increase can be expected during the evening. Inverted-v profiles will support a threat for severe winds. Given the forcing and shear, this activity will spread eastward with time. Even if storms become slightly elevated, severe gusts are still possible given the relatively dry boundary layer. Wind profiles would support larger hail, but lack of steeper mid-level lapse rates and limited moisture suggest only small to marginally severe hail should be expected. ...Nebraska/South Dakota... The forecast for this area remains rather uncertain. The upper-level ridge will be building over the much of the Plains through the period. Though the mid-level trough will be approaching the northern Plains, this will occur towards Tuesday morning. Underneath the ridge, strong heating will occur. Low/mid 60s F dewpoints over parts of Nebraska/South Dakota will support 1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE. The mechanism for forcing will likely be a nebulous theta-a boundary where local surface heating can be maximized. If a storm or two can develop, shear will improve by late afternoon/evening. There is a conditional threat for large hail and severe winds. ..Wendt.. 08/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...NORTHERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms are possible from the northern Rockies into the northern High Plains. Additional storms possible in parts of Nebraska/South Dakota. Severe winds and isolated large hail may occur. ...Northern Rockies/High Plains... A compact shortwave trough will move into the Northern Rockies. This feature will be well-timed with peak diurnal destabilization. Scattered thunderstorms appear likely within the higher terrain of central Idaho into southwest Montana. The main limiting factor for a greater severe risk will be the overall lack of moisture. Surface dewpoints may only be in the low/mid 40s F, though some increase can be expected during the evening. Inverted-v profiles will support a threat for severe winds. Given the forcing and shear, this activity will spread eastward with time. Even if storms become slightly elevated, severe gusts are still possible given the relatively dry boundary layer. Wind profiles would support larger hail, but lack of steeper mid-level lapse rates and limited moisture suggest only small to marginally severe hail should be expected. ...Nebraska/South Dakota... The forecast for this area remains rather uncertain. The upper-level ridge will be building over the much of the Plains through the period. Though the mid-level trough will be approaching the northern Plains, this will occur towards Tuesday morning. Underneath the ridge, strong heating will occur. Low/mid 60s F dewpoints over parts of Nebraska/South Dakota will support 1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE. The mechanism for forcing will likely be a nebulous theta-a boundary where local surface heating can be maximized. If a storm or two can develop, shear will improve by late afternoon/evening. There is a conditional threat for large hail and severe winds. ..Wendt.. 08/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...NORTHERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms are possible from the northern Rockies into the northern High Plains. Additional storms possible in parts of Nebraska/South Dakota. Severe winds and isolated large hail may occur. ...Northern Rockies/High Plains... A compact shortwave trough will move into the Northern Rockies. This feature will be well-timed with peak diurnal destabilization. Scattered thunderstorms appear likely within the higher terrain of central Idaho into southwest Montana. The main limiting factor for a greater severe risk will be the overall lack of moisture. Surface dewpoints may only be in the low/mid 40s F, though some increase can be expected during the evening. Inverted-v profiles will support a threat for severe winds. Given the forcing and shear, this activity will spread eastward with time. Even if storms become slightly elevated, severe gusts are still possible given the relatively dry boundary layer. Wind profiles would support larger hail, but lack of steeper mid-level lapse rates and limited moisture suggest only small to marginally severe hail should be expected. ...Nebraska/South Dakota... The forecast for this area remains rather uncertain. The upper-level ridge will be building over the much of the Plains through the period. Though the mid-level trough will be approaching the northern Plains, this will occur towards Tuesday morning. Underneath the ridge, strong heating will occur. Low/mid 60s F dewpoints over parts of Nebraska/South Dakota will support 1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE. The mechanism for forcing will likely be a nebulous theta-a boundary where local surface heating can be maximized. If a storm or two can develop, shear will improve by late afternoon/evening. There is a conditional threat for large hail and severe winds. ..Wendt.. 08/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...NORTHERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms are possible from the northern Rockies into the northern High Plains. Additional storms possible in parts of Nebraska/South Dakota. Severe winds and isolated large hail may occur. ...Northern Rockies/High Plains... A compact shortwave trough will move into the Northern Rockies. This feature will be well-timed with peak diurnal destabilization. Scattered thunderstorms appear likely within the higher terrain of central Idaho into southwest Montana. The main limiting factor for a greater severe risk will be the overall lack of moisture. Surface dewpoints may only be in the low/mid 40s F, though some increase can be expected during the evening. Inverted-v profiles will support a threat for severe winds. Given the forcing and shear, this activity will spread eastward with time. Even if storms become slightly elevated, severe gusts are still possible given the relatively dry boundary layer. Wind profiles would support larger hail, but lack of steeper mid-level lapse rates and limited moisture suggest only small to marginally severe hail should be expected. ...Nebraska/South Dakota... The forecast for this area remains rather uncertain. The upper-level ridge will be building over the much of the Plains through the period. Though the mid-level trough will be approaching the northern Plains, this will occur towards Tuesday morning. Underneath the ridge, strong heating will occur. Low/mid 60s F dewpoints over parts of Nebraska/South Dakota will support 1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE. The mechanism for forcing will likely be a nebulous theta-a boundary where local surface heating can be maximized. If a storm or two can develop, shear will improve by late afternoon/evening. There is a conditional threat for large hail and severe winds. ..Wendt.. 08/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...NORTHERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms are possible from the northern Rockies into the northern High Plains. Additional storms possible in parts of Nebraska/South Dakota. Severe winds and isolated large hail may occur. ...Northern Rockies/High Plains... A compact shortwave trough will move into the Northern Rockies. This feature will be well-timed with peak diurnal destabilization. Scattered thunderstorms appear likely within the higher terrain of central Idaho into southwest Montana. The main limiting factor for a greater severe risk will be the overall lack of moisture. Surface dewpoints may only be in the low/mid 40s F, though some increase can be expected during the evening. Inverted-v profiles will support a threat for severe winds. Given the forcing and shear, this activity will spread eastward with time. Even if storms become slightly elevated, severe gusts are still possible given the relatively dry boundary layer. Wind profiles would support larger hail, but lack of steeper mid-level lapse rates and limited moisture suggest only small to marginally severe hail should be expected. ...Nebraska/South Dakota... The forecast for this area remains rather uncertain. The upper-level ridge will be building over the much of the Plains through the period. Though the mid-level trough will be approaching the northern Plains, this will occur towards Tuesday morning. Underneath the ridge, strong heating will occur. Low/mid 60s F dewpoints over parts of Nebraska/South Dakota will support 1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE. The mechanism for forcing will likely be a nebulous theta-a boundary where local surface heating can be maximized. If a storm or two can develop, shear will improve by late afternoon/evening. There is a conditional threat for large hail and severe winds. ..Wendt.. 08/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...NORTHERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms are possible from the northern Rockies into the northern High Plains. Additional storms possible in parts of Nebraska/South Dakota. Severe winds and isolated large hail may occur. ...Northern Rockies/High Plains... A compact shortwave trough will move into the Northern Rockies. This feature will be well-timed with peak diurnal destabilization. Scattered thunderstorms appear likely within the higher terrain of central Idaho into southwest Montana. The main limiting factor for a greater severe risk will be the overall lack of moisture. Surface dewpoints may only be in the low/mid 40s F, though some increase can be expected during the evening. Inverted-v profiles will support a threat for severe winds. Given the forcing and shear, this activity will spread eastward with time. Even if storms become slightly elevated, severe gusts are still possible given the relatively dry boundary layer. Wind profiles would support larger hail, but lack of steeper mid-level lapse rates and limited moisture suggest only small to marginally severe hail should be expected. ...Nebraska/South Dakota... The forecast for this area remains rather uncertain. The upper-level ridge will be building over the much of the Plains through the period. Though the mid-level trough will be approaching the northern Plains, this will occur towards Tuesday morning. Underneath the ridge, strong heating will occur. Low/mid 60s F dewpoints over parts of Nebraska/South Dakota will support 1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE. The mechanism for forcing will likely be a nebulous theta-a boundary where local surface heating can be maximized. If a storm or two can develop, shear will improve by late afternoon/evening. There is a conditional threat for large hail and severe winds. ..Wendt.. 08/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...NORTHERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms are possible from the northern Rockies into the northern High Plains. Additional storms possible in parts of Nebraska/South Dakota. Severe winds and isolated large hail may occur. ...Northern Rockies/High Plains... A compact shortwave trough will move into the Northern Rockies. This feature will be well-timed with peak diurnal destabilization. Scattered thunderstorms appear likely within the higher terrain of central Idaho into southwest Montana. The main limiting factor for a greater severe risk will be the overall lack of moisture. Surface dewpoints may only be in the low/mid 40s F, though some increase can be expected during the evening. Inverted-v profiles will support a threat for severe winds. Given the forcing and shear, this activity will spread eastward with time. Even if storms become slightly elevated, severe gusts are still possible given the relatively dry boundary layer. Wind profiles would support larger hail, but lack of steeper mid-level lapse rates and limited moisture suggest only small to marginally severe hail should be expected. ...Nebraska/South Dakota... The forecast for this area remains rather uncertain. The upper-level ridge will be building over the much of the Plains through the period. Though the mid-level trough will be approaching the northern Plains, this will occur towards Tuesday morning. Underneath the ridge, strong heating will occur. Low/mid 60s F dewpoints over parts of Nebraska/South Dakota will support 1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE. The mechanism for forcing will likely be a nebulous theta-a boundary where local surface heating can be maximized. If a storm or two can develop, shear will improve by late afternoon/evening. There is a conditional threat for large hail and severe winds. ..Wendt.. 08/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...NORTHERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms are possible from the northern Rockies into the northern High Plains. Additional storms possible in parts of Nebraska/South Dakota. Severe winds and isolated large hail may occur. ...Northern Rockies/High Plains... A compact shortwave trough will move into the Northern Rockies. This feature will be well-timed with peak diurnal destabilization. Scattered thunderstorms appear likely within the higher terrain of central Idaho into southwest Montana. The main limiting factor for a greater severe risk will be the overall lack of moisture. Surface dewpoints may only be in the low/mid 40s F, though some increase can be expected during the evening. Inverted-v profiles will support a threat for severe winds. Given the forcing and shear, this activity will spread eastward with time. Even if storms become slightly elevated, severe gusts are still possible given the relatively dry boundary layer. Wind profiles would support larger hail, but lack of steeper mid-level lapse rates and limited moisture suggest only small to marginally severe hail should be expected. ...Nebraska/South Dakota... The forecast for this area remains rather uncertain. The upper-level ridge will be building over the much of the Plains through the period. Though the mid-level trough will be approaching the northern Plains, this will occur towards Tuesday morning. Underneath the ridge, strong heating will occur. Low/mid 60s F dewpoints over parts of Nebraska/South Dakota will support 1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE. The mechanism for forcing will likely be a nebulous theta-a boundary where local surface heating can be maximized. If a storm or two can develop, shear will improve by late afternoon/evening. There is a conditional threat for large hail and severe winds. ..Wendt.. 08/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...NORTHERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms are possible from the northern Rockies into the northern High Plains. Additional storms possible in parts of Nebraska/South Dakota. Severe winds and isolated large hail may occur. ...Northern Rockies/High Plains... A compact shortwave trough will move into the Northern Rockies. This feature will be well-timed with peak diurnal destabilization. Scattered thunderstorms appear likely within the higher terrain of central Idaho into southwest Montana. The main limiting factor for a greater severe risk will be the overall lack of moisture. Surface dewpoints may only be in the low/mid 40s F, though some increase can be expected during the evening. Inverted-v profiles will support a threat for severe winds. Given the forcing and shear, this activity will spread eastward with time. Even if storms become slightly elevated, severe gusts are still possible given the relatively dry boundary layer. Wind profiles would support larger hail, but lack of steeper mid-level lapse rates and limited moisture suggest only small to marginally severe hail should be expected. ...Nebraska/South Dakota... The forecast for this area remains rather uncertain. The upper-level ridge will be building over the much of the Plains through the period. Though the mid-level trough will be approaching the northern Plains, this will occur towards Tuesday morning. Underneath the ridge, strong heating will occur. Low/mid 60s F dewpoints over parts of Nebraska/South Dakota will support 1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE. The mechanism for forcing will likely be a nebulous theta-a boundary where local surface heating can be maximized. If a storm or two can develop, shear will improve by late afternoon/evening. There is a conditional threat for large hail and severe winds. ..Wendt.. 08/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...NORTHERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms are possible from the northern Rockies into the northern High Plains. Additional storms possible in parts of Nebraska/South Dakota. Severe winds and isolated large hail may occur. ...Northern Rockies/High Plains... A compact shortwave trough will move into the Northern Rockies. This feature will be well-timed with peak diurnal destabilization. Scattered thunderstorms appear likely within the higher terrain of central Idaho into southwest Montana. The main limiting factor for a greater severe risk will be the overall lack of moisture. Surface dewpoints may only be in the low/mid 40s F, though some increase can be expected during the evening. Inverted-v profiles will support a threat for severe winds. Given the forcing and shear, this activity will spread eastward with time. Even if storms become slightly elevated, severe gusts are still possible given the relatively dry boundary layer. Wind profiles would support larger hail, but lack of steeper mid-level lapse rates and limited moisture suggest only small to marginally severe hail should be expected. ...Nebraska/South Dakota... The forecast for this area remains rather uncertain. The upper-level ridge will be building over the much of the Plains through the period. Though the mid-level trough will be approaching the northern Plains, this will occur towards Tuesday morning. Underneath the ridge, strong heating will occur. Low/mid 60s F dewpoints over parts of Nebraska/South Dakota will support 1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE. The mechanism for forcing will likely be a nebulous theta-a boundary where local surface heating can be maximized. If a storm or two can develop, shear will improve by late afternoon/evening. There is a conditional threat for large hail and severe winds. ..Wendt.. 08/02/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0205 PM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z Tomorrow's fire weather forecast remains largely on-track, with only minor modifications needed based on the latest high-resolution ensemble guidance. Strong/erratic thunderstorm outflow winds will be possible nearby any thunderstorms across portions of central/eastern Oregon, where there is a Level 1/5 Marginal Risk of severe wind gusts in the SPC Day 2 Convective Outlook. Small to marginally severe hail may also accompany the strongest thunderstorm cores. Isolated dry thunderstorms may be possible a bit farther north into east-central Oregon, though greater thunderstorm coverage, a bit higher PWATs, and greater QPF signals precludes an area at this time. If guidance trends lower with QPF then the isolated dry thunderstorm area may need to be extended into this area. Nevertheless, new ignitions could occur on the periphery of heavier storm cores, wherever fuels remain receptive. Please see the discussion below for more information on tomorrow's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 08/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel trough will track eastward into the Northwest on Sunday. Preceding the trough, related forcing for ascent and sufficient midlevel moisture will support isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms across the Intermountain West during the afternoon/evening. Inverted-V soundings (characterized by 0.5-0.7 inch PW) and modest storm motions will favor mostly dry thunderstorms across northern CA, southeastern OR, far northwestern NV, and southwestern ID -- with a mix of wet/dry storms farther north in east-central OR. These storms will pose a risk of isolated ignitions over any receptive fuels and strong outflow winds. Within the base of the trough, a belt of moderate (30-40 kt) midlevel westerly flow will overspread a deep/well-mixed boundary layer across the Great Basin during the afternoon. As a result, breezy/gusty west-southwesterly surface winds and single-digit RH will yield elevated fire-weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0205 PM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z Tomorrow's fire weather forecast remains largely on-track, with only minor modifications needed based on the latest high-resolution ensemble guidance. Strong/erratic thunderstorm outflow winds will be possible nearby any thunderstorms across portions of central/eastern Oregon, where there is a Level 1/5 Marginal Risk of severe wind gusts in the SPC Day 2 Convective Outlook. Small to marginally severe hail may also accompany the strongest thunderstorm cores. Isolated dry thunderstorms may be possible a bit farther north into east-central Oregon, though greater thunderstorm coverage, a bit higher PWATs, and greater QPF signals precludes an area at this time. If guidance trends lower with QPF then the isolated dry thunderstorm area may need to be extended into this area. Nevertheless, new ignitions could occur on the periphery of heavier storm cores, wherever fuels remain receptive. Please see the discussion below for more information on tomorrow's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 08/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel trough will track eastward into the Northwest on Sunday. Preceding the trough, related forcing for ascent and sufficient midlevel moisture will support isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms across the Intermountain West during the afternoon/evening. Inverted-V soundings (characterized by 0.5-0.7 inch PW) and modest storm motions will favor mostly dry thunderstorms across northern CA, southeastern OR, far northwestern NV, and southwestern ID -- with a mix of wet/dry storms farther north in east-central OR. These storms will pose a risk of isolated ignitions over any receptive fuels and strong outflow winds. Within the base of the trough, a belt of moderate (30-40 kt) midlevel westerly flow will overspread a deep/well-mixed boundary layer across the Great Basin during the afternoon. As a result, breezy/gusty west-southwesterly surface winds and single-digit RH will yield elevated fire-weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0205 PM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z Tomorrow's fire weather forecast remains largely on-track, with only minor modifications needed based on the latest high-resolution ensemble guidance. Strong/erratic thunderstorm outflow winds will be possible nearby any thunderstorms across portions of central/eastern Oregon, where there is a Level 1/5 Marginal Risk of severe wind gusts in the SPC Day 2 Convective Outlook. Small to marginally severe hail may also accompany the strongest thunderstorm cores. Isolated dry thunderstorms may be possible a bit farther north into east-central Oregon, though greater thunderstorm coverage, a bit higher PWATs, and greater QPF signals precludes an area at this time. If guidance trends lower with QPF then the isolated dry thunderstorm area may need to be extended into this area. Nevertheless, new ignitions could occur on the periphery of heavier storm cores, wherever fuels remain receptive. Please see the discussion below for more information on tomorrow's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 08/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel trough will track eastward into the Northwest on Sunday. Preceding the trough, related forcing for ascent and sufficient midlevel moisture will support isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms across the Intermountain West during the afternoon/evening. Inverted-V soundings (characterized by 0.5-0.7 inch PW) and modest storm motions will favor mostly dry thunderstorms across northern CA, southeastern OR, far northwestern NV, and southwestern ID -- with a mix of wet/dry storms farther north in east-central OR. These storms will pose a risk of isolated ignitions over any receptive fuels and strong outflow winds. Within the base of the trough, a belt of moderate (30-40 kt) midlevel westerly flow will overspread a deep/well-mixed boundary layer across the Great Basin during the afternoon. As a result, breezy/gusty west-southwesterly surface winds and single-digit RH will yield elevated fire-weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0205 PM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z Tomorrow's fire weather forecast remains largely on-track, with only minor modifications needed based on the latest high-resolution ensemble guidance. Strong/erratic thunderstorm outflow winds will be possible nearby any thunderstorms across portions of central/eastern Oregon, where there is a Level 1/5 Marginal Risk of severe wind gusts in the SPC Day 2 Convective Outlook. Small to marginally severe hail may also accompany the strongest thunderstorm cores. Isolated dry thunderstorms may be possible a bit farther north into east-central Oregon, though greater thunderstorm coverage, a bit higher PWATs, and greater QPF signals precludes an area at this time. If guidance trends lower with QPF then the isolated dry thunderstorm area may need to be extended into this area. Nevertheless, new ignitions could occur on the periphery of heavier storm cores, wherever fuels remain receptive. Please see the discussion below for more information on tomorrow's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 08/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel trough will track eastward into the Northwest on Sunday. Preceding the trough, related forcing for ascent and sufficient midlevel moisture will support isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms across the Intermountain West during the afternoon/evening. Inverted-V soundings (characterized by 0.5-0.7 inch PW) and modest storm motions will favor mostly dry thunderstorms across northern CA, southeastern OR, far northwestern NV, and southwestern ID -- with a mix of wet/dry storms farther north in east-central OR. These storms will pose a risk of isolated ignitions over any receptive fuels and strong outflow winds. Within the base of the trough, a belt of moderate (30-40 kt) midlevel westerly flow will overspread a deep/well-mixed boundary layer across the Great Basin during the afternoon. As a result, breezy/gusty west-southwesterly surface winds and single-digit RH will yield elevated fire-weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0205 PM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z Tomorrow's fire weather forecast remains largely on-track, with only minor modifications needed based on the latest high-resolution ensemble guidance. Strong/erratic thunderstorm outflow winds will be possible nearby any thunderstorms across portions of central/eastern Oregon, where there is a Level 1/5 Marginal Risk of severe wind gusts in the SPC Day 2 Convective Outlook. Small to marginally severe hail may also accompany the strongest thunderstorm cores. Isolated dry thunderstorms may be possible a bit farther north into east-central Oregon, though greater thunderstorm coverage, a bit higher PWATs, and greater QPF signals precludes an area at this time. If guidance trends lower with QPF then the isolated dry thunderstorm area may need to be extended into this area. Nevertheless, new ignitions could occur on the periphery of heavier storm cores, wherever fuels remain receptive. Please see the discussion below for more information on tomorrow's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 08/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel trough will track eastward into the Northwest on Sunday. Preceding the trough, related forcing for ascent and sufficient midlevel moisture will support isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms across the Intermountain West during the afternoon/evening. Inverted-V soundings (characterized by 0.5-0.7 inch PW) and modest storm motions will favor mostly dry thunderstorms across northern CA, southeastern OR, far northwestern NV, and southwestern ID -- with a mix of wet/dry storms farther north in east-central OR. These storms will pose a risk of isolated ignitions over any receptive fuels and strong outflow winds. Within the base of the trough, a belt of moderate (30-40 kt) midlevel westerly flow will overspread a deep/well-mixed boundary layer across the Great Basin during the afternoon. As a result, breezy/gusty west-southwesterly surface winds and single-digit RH will yield elevated fire-weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0205 PM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z Tomorrow's fire weather forecast remains largely on-track, with only minor modifications needed based on the latest high-resolution ensemble guidance. Strong/erratic thunderstorm outflow winds will be possible nearby any thunderstorms across portions of central/eastern Oregon, where there is a Level 1/5 Marginal Risk of severe wind gusts in the SPC Day 2 Convective Outlook. Small to marginally severe hail may also accompany the strongest thunderstorm cores. Isolated dry thunderstorms may be possible a bit farther north into east-central Oregon, though greater thunderstorm coverage, a bit higher PWATs, and greater QPF signals precludes an area at this time. If guidance trends lower with QPF then the isolated dry thunderstorm area may need to be extended into this area. Nevertheless, new ignitions could occur on the periphery of heavier storm cores, wherever fuels remain receptive. Please see the discussion below for more information on tomorrow's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 08/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel trough will track eastward into the Northwest on Sunday. Preceding the trough, related forcing for ascent and sufficient midlevel moisture will support isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms across the Intermountain West during the afternoon/evening. Inverted-V soundings (characterized by 0.5-0.7 inch PW) and modest storm motions will favor mostly dry thunderstorms across northern CA, southeastern OR, far northwestern NV, and southwestern ID -- with a mix of wet/dry storms farther north in east-central OR. These storms will pose a risk of isolated ignitions over any receptive fuels and strong outflow winds. Within the base of the trough, a belt of moderate (30-40 kt) midlevel westerly flow will overspread a deep/well-mixed boundary layer across the Great Basin during the afternoon. As a result, breezy/gusty west-southwesterly surface winds and single-digit RH will yield elevated fire-weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0205 PM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z Tomorrow's fire weather forecast remains largely on-track, with only minor modifications needed based on the latest high-resolution ensemble guidance. Strong/erratic thunderstorm outflow winds will be possible nearby any thunderstorms across portions of central/eastern Oregon, where there is a Level 1/5 Marginal Risk of severe wind gusts in the SPC Day 2 Convective Outlook. Small to marginally severe hail may also accompany the strongest thunderstorm cores. Isolated dry thunderstorms may be possible a bit farther north into east-central Oregon, though greater thunderstorm coverage, a bit higher PWATs, and greater QPF signals precludes an area at this time. If guidance trends lower with QPF then the isolated dry thunderstorm area may need to be extended into this area. Nevertheless, new ignitions could occur on the periphery of heavier storm cores, wherever fuels remain receptive. Please see the discussion below for more information on tomorrow's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 08/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel trough will track eastward into the Northwest on Sunday. Preceding the trough, related forcing for ascent and sufficient midlevel moisture will support isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms across the Intermountain West during the afternoon/evening. Inverted-V soundings (characterized by 0.5-0.7 inch PW) and modest storm motions will favor mostly dry thunderstorms across northern CA, southeastern OR, far northwestern NV, and southwestern ID -- with a mix of wet/dry storms farther north in east-central OR. These storms will pose a risk of isolated ignitions over any receptive fuels and strong outflow winds. Within the base of the trough, a belt of moderate (30-40 kt) midlevel westerly flow will overspread a deep/well-mixed boundary layer across the Great Basin during the afternoon. As a result, breezy/gusty west-southwesterly surface winds and single-digit RH will yield elevated fire-weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0205 PM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z Tomorrow's fire weather forecast remains largely on-track, with only minor modifications needed based on the latest high-resolution ensemble guidance. Strong/erratic thunderstorm outflow winds will be possible nearby any thunderstorms across portions of central/eastern Oregon, where there is a Level 1/5 Marginal Risk of severe wind gusts in the SPC Day 2 Convective Outlook. Small to marginally severe hail may also accompany the strongest thunderstorm cores. Isolated dry thunderstorms may be possible a bit farther north into east-central Oregon, though greater thunderstorm coverage, a bit higher PWATs, and greater QPF signals precludes an area at this time. If guidance trends lower with QPF then the isolated dry thunderstorm area may need to be extended into this area. Nevertheless, new ignitions could occur on the periphery of heavier storm cores, wherever fuels remain receptive. Please see the discussion below for more information on tomorrow's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 08/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel trough will track eastward into the Northwest on Sunday. Preceding the trough, related forcing for ascent and sufficient midlevel moisture will support isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms across the Intermountain West during the afternoon/evening. Inverted-V soundings (characterized by 0.5-0.7 inch PW) and modest storm motions will favor mostly dry thunderstorms across northern CA, southeastern OR, far northwestern NV, and southwestern ID -- with a mix of wet/dry storms farther north in east-central OR. These storms will pose a risk of isolated ignitions over any receptive fuels and strong outflow winds. Within the base of the trough, a belt of moderate (30-40 kt) midlevel westerly flow will overspread a deep/well-mixed boundary layer across the Great Basin during the afternoon. As a result, breezy/gusty west-southwesterly surface winds and single-digit RH will yield elevated fire-weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0205 PM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z Tomorrow's fire weather forecast remains largely on-track, with only minor modifications needed based on the latest high-resolution ensemble guidance. Strong/erratic thunderstorm outflow winds will be possible nearby any thunderstorms across portions of central/eastern Oregon, where there is a Level 1/5 Marginal Risk of severe wind gusts in the SPC Day 2 Convective Outlook. Small to marginally severe hail may also accompany the strongest thunderstorm cores. Isolated dry thunderstorms may be possible a bit farther north into east-central Oregon, though greater thunderstorm coverage, a bit higher PWATs, and greater QPF signals precludes an area at this time. If guidance trends lower with QPF then the isolated dry thunderstorm area may need to be extended into this area. Nevertheless, new ignitions could occur on the periphery of heavier storm cores, wherever fuels remain receptive. Please see the discussion below for more information on tomorrow's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 08/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel trough will track eastward into the Northwest on Sunday. Preceding the trough, related forcing for ascent and sufficient midlevel moisture will support isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms across the Intermountain West during the afternoon/evening. Inverted-V soundings (characterized by 0.5-0.7 inch PW) and modest storm motions will favor mostly dry thunderstorms across northern CA, southeastern OR, far northwestern NV, and southwestern ID -- with a mix of wet/dry storms farther north in east-central OR. These storms will pose a risk of isolated ignitions over any receptive fuels and strong outflow winds. Within the base of the trough, a belt of moderate (30-40 kt) midlevel westerly flow will overspread a deep/well-mixed boundary layer across the Great Basin during the afternoon. As a result, breezy/gusty west-southwesterly surface winds and single-digit RH will yield elevated fire-weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0205 PM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z Tomorrow's fire weather forecast remains largely on-track, with only minor modifications needed based on the latest high-resolution ensemble guidance. Strong/erratic thunderstorm outflow winds will be possible nearby any thunderstorms across portions of central/eastern Oregon, where there is a Level 1/5 Marginal Risk of severe wind gusts in the SPC Day 2 Convective Outlook. Small to marginally severe hail may also accompany the strongest thunderstorm cores. Isolated dry thunderstorms may be possible a bit farther north into east-central Oregon, though greater thunderstorm coverage, a bit higher PWATs, and greater QPF signals precludes an area at this time. If guidance trends lower with QPF then the isolated dry thunderstorm area may need to be extended into this area. Nevertheless, new ignitions could occur on the periphery of heavier storm cores, wherever fuels remain receptive. Please see the discussion below for more information on tomorrow's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 08/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel trough will track eastward into the Northwest on Sunday. Preceding the trough, related forcing for ascent and sufficient midlevel moisture will support isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms across the Intermountain West during the afternoon/evening. Inverted-V soundings (characterized by 0.5-0.7 inch PW) and modest storm motions will favor mostly dry thunderstorms across northern CA, southeastern OR, far northwestern NV, and southwestern ID -- with a mix of wet/dry storms farther north in east-central OR. These storms will pose a risk of isolated ignitions over any receptive fuels and strong outflow winds. Within the base of the trough, a belt of moderate (30-40 kt) midlevel westerly flow will overspread a deep/well-mixed boundary layer across the Great Basin during the afternoon. As a result, breezy/gusty west-southwesterly surface winds and single-digit RH will yield elevated fire-weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more