Severe Storms

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025 Valid 051200Z - 101200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Tuesday/Day 4 to Thursday/Day 6... On Tuesday, a mid-level ridge is forecast to remain over the central Rockies, as a subtle shortwave trough moves into the northern Plains. Thunderstorm development will be possible near and ahead of the trough across parts of the Dakotas during the afternoon and evening. Model forecasts suggest that the environment will support severe storms, mainly across western and central South Dakota where an axis of instability and moderate deep-layer shear is forecast. Isolated large hail and severe gusts are expected to be the primary threats. On Wednesday, the shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward into the upper Mississippi Valley, outrunning the moist and unstable airmass over the central and northern Plains. Isolated storms could develop in the wake of the trough over parts of the region, but the negative effects of a ridge aloft will likely keep any severe threat localized. The mid-level ridge is forecast to move eastward into the upper Mississippi Valley on Thursday, as flow become west-southwesterly in its wake over the northern Plains. Strong instability could develop across parts of the region, mainly due to surface dewpoints in the 70s F. Although large-scale ascent is forecast to remain weak in most areas, a few storms with hail and isolated severe gusts could develop in the afternoon and evening. ...Friday/Day 7 and Saturday/Day 8... On Friday, a mid-level shortwave ridge is forecast to move across the north-central U.S., as a trough moves into the northern Rockies. Strong instability is forecast to develop by afternoon across much of the northern Plains and upper Mississippi Valley. Isolated thunderstorms are expected across parts of the region as surface temperatures become maximized in the mid to late afternoon. Although a severe threat will be possible, the presence of the mid-level ridge could be problematic for a greater severe threat. On Saturday, a mid-level trough and an associated jet max, is forecast to move eastward into the northern Plains. Thunderstorm development will be possible ahead of the trough from the eastern Dakotas into the upper Mississippi Valley. It appears that the environment should support a severe threat due strong instability and substantial deep-layer shear. However, the projected scenario remains uncertain due to the extended range. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS...AND IN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES... ...SUMMARY... An isolated severe threat will be possible on Monday across parts of the central and northern Plains, and in the northern Rockies. ...Central ad Northern Plains... A mid-level ridge is forecast to move across the central Rockies on Monday, as a trough remains in place from the upper Mississippi Valley. At the surface, an axis of low-level moisture is forecast from eastern Nebraska northward into the eastern Dakotas. As surface temperatures warm and instability increases during the day along and near the moist axis, isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop. More isolated cells may also form southwestward into Nebraska, ahead of the central Plains ridge. Any severe threat will likely be co-located with areas that have the strongest instability. Forecast soundings in the late afternoon from southern South Dakota into northern Nebraska have MLCAPE peaking in the 1500 to 3000 J/kg range, and have moderate deep-layer shear in place. This would be sufficient for isolated severe gusts and hail. However, the overall pattern will be diffuse, suggesting that any severe threat the develops will remain localized. ...Northern Rockies... At mid-levels, a shortwave trough is forecast to move northeastward across the northwestern U.S. on Monday, as flow remains southwesterly over the northern Rockies. At the surface, upslope flow should be in place over the northern High Plains extending westward into the northern Rockies. As surface temperatures warm during the day, scattered thunderstorm are expected to develop from northern Idaho into western and central Montana. NAM forecast soundings in western and central Montana by late afternoon have MLCAPE peaking near 1200 J/kg, with 0-6 km shear of 40 to 50 knots. This could support an isolated severe threat. Large surface temperature-dewpoint spreads and nearly dry adiabatic lapse rates from the surface to 700 mb should result in high-based storms capable of isolated severe gusts. Hail will also be possible. ..Broyles.. 08/02/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS...AND IN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES... ...SUMMARY... An isolated severe threat will be possible on Monday across parts of the central and northern Plains, and in the northern Rockies. ...Central ad Northern Plains... A mid-level ridge is forecast to move across the central Rockies on Monday, as a trough remains in place from the upper Mississippi Valley. At the surface, an axis of low-level moisture is forecast from eastern Nebraska northward into the eastern Dakotas. As surface temperatures warm and instability increases during the day along and near the moist axis, isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop. More isolated cells may also form southwestward into Nebraska, ahead of the central Plains ridge. Any severe threat will likely be co-located with areas that have the strongest instability. Forecast soundings in the late afternoon from southern South Dakota into northern Nebraska have MLCAPE peaking in the 1500 to 3000 J/kg range, and have moderate deep-layer shear in place. This would be sufficient for isolated severe gusts and hail. However, the overall pattern will be diffuse, suggesting that any severe threat the develops will remain localized. ...Northern Rockies... At mid-levels, a shortwave trough is forecast to move northeastward across the northwestern U.S. on Monday, as flow remains southwesterly over the northern Rockies. At the surface, upslope flow should be in place over the northern High Plains extending westward into the northern Rockies. As surface temperatures warm during the day, scattered thunderstorm are expected to develop from northern Idaho into western and central Montana. NAM forecast soundings in western and central Montana by late afternoon have MLCAPE peaking near 1200 J/kg, with 0-6 km shear of 40 to 50 knots. This could support an isolated severe threat. Large surface temperature-dewpoint spreads and nearly dry adiabatic lapse rates from the surface to 700 mb should result in high-based storms capable of isolated severe gusts. Hail will also be possible. ..Broyles.. 08/02/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS...AND IN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES... ...SUMMARY... An isolated severe threat will be possible on Monday across parts of the central and northern Plains, and in the northern Rockies. ...Central ad Northern Plains... A mid-level ridge is forecast to move across the central Rockies on Monday, as a trough remains in place from the upper Mississippi Valley. At the surface, an axis of low-level moisture is forecast from eastern Nebraska northward into the eastern Dakotas. As surface temperatures warm and instability increases during the day along and near the moist axis, isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop. More isolated cells may also form southwestward into Nebraska, ahead of the central Plains ridge. Any severe threat will likely be co-located with areas that have the strongest instability. Forecast soundings in the late afternoon from southern South Dakota into northern Nebraska have MLCAPE peaking in the 1500 to 3000 J/kg range, and have moderate deep-layer shear in place. This would be sufficient for isolated severe gusts and hail. However, the overall pattern will be diffuse, suggesting that any severe threat the develops will remain localized. ...Northern Rockies... At mid-levels, a shortwave trough is forecast to move northeastward across the northwestern U.S. on Monday, as flow remains southwesterly over the northern Rockies. At the surface, upslope flow should be in place over the northern High Plains extending westward into the northern Rockies. As surface temperatures warm during the day, scattered thunderstorm are expected to develop from northern Idaho into western and central Montana. NAM forecast soundings in western and central Montana by late afternoon have MLCAPE peaking near 1200 J/kg, with 0-6 km shear of 40 to 50 knots. This could support an isolated severe threat. Large surface temperature-dewpoint spreads and nearly dry adiabatic lapse rates from the surface to 700 mb should result in high-based storms capable of isolated severe gusts. Hail will also be possible. ..Broyles.. 08/02/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS...AND IN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES... ...SUMMARY... An isolated severe threat will be possible on Monday across parts of the central and northern Plains, and in the northern Rockies. ...Central ad Northern Plains... A mid-level ridge is forecast to move across the central Rockies on Monday, as a trough remains in place from the upper Mississippi Valley. At the surface, an axis of low-level moisture is forecast from eastern Nebraska northward into the eastern Dakotas. As surface temperatures warm and instability increases during the day along and near the moist axis, isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop. More isolated cells may also form southwestward into Nebraska, ahead of the central Plains ridge. Any severe threat will likely be co-located with areas that have the strongest instability. Forecast soundings in the late afternoon from southern South Dakota into northern Nebraska have MLCAPE peaking in the 1500 to 3000 J/kg range, and have moderate deep-layer shear in place. This would be sufficient for isolated severe gusts and hail. However, the overall pattern will be diffuse, suggesting that any severe threat the develops will remain localized. ...Northern Rockies... At mid-levels, a shortwave trough is forecast to move northeastward across the northwestern U.S. on Monday, as flow remains southwesterly over the northern Rockies. At the surface, upslope flow should be in place over the northern High Plains extending westward into the northern Rockies. As surface temperatures warm during the day, scattered thunderstorm are expected to develop from northern Idaho into western and central Montana. NAM forecast soundings in western and central Montana by late afternoon have MLCAPE peaking near 1200 J/kg, with 0-6 km shear of 40 to 50 knots. This could support an isolated severe threat. Large surface temperature-dewpoint spreads and nearly dry adiabatic lapse rates from the surface to 700 mb should result in high-based storms capable of isolated severe gusts. Hail will also be possible. ..Broyles.. 08/02/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...Synopsis... A midlevel trough will track eastward into the Northwest on Sunday. Preceding the trough, related forcing for ascent and sufficient midlevel moisture will support isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms across the Intermountain West during the afternoon/evening. Inverted-V soundings (characterized by 0.5-0.7 inch PW) and modest storm motions will favor mostly dry thunderstorms across northern CA, southeastern OR, far northwestern NV, and southwestern ID -- with a mix of wet/dry storms farther north in east-central OR. These storms will pose a risk of isolated ignitions over any receptive fuels and strong outflow winds. Within the base of the trough, a belt of moderate (30-40 kt) midlevel westerly flow will overspread a deep/well-mixed boundary layer across the Great Basin during the afternoon. As a result, breezy/gusty west-southwesterly surface winds and single-digit RH will yield elevated fire-weather conditions. ..Weinman.. 08/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...Synopsis... A midlevel trough will track eastward into the Northwest on Sunday. Preceding the trough, related forcing for ascent and sufficient midlevel moisture will support isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms across the Intermountain West during the afternoon/evening. Inverted-V soundings (characterized by 0.5-0.7 inch PW) and modest storm motions will favor mostly dry thunderstorms across northern CA, southeastern OR, far northwestern NV, and southwestern ID -- with a mix of wet/dry storms farther north in east-central OR. These storms will pose a risk of isolated ignitions over any receptive fuels and strong outflow winds. Within the base of the trough, a belt of moderate (30-40 kt) midlevel westerly flow will overspread a deep/well-mixed boundary layer across the Great Basin during the afternoon. As a result, breezy/gusty west-southwesterly surface winds and single-digit RH will yield elevated fire-weather conditions. ..Weinman.. 08/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...Synopsis... A midlevel trough will track eastward into the Northwest on Sunday. Preceding the trough, related forcing for ascent and sufficient midlevel moisture will support isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms across the Intermountain West during the afternoon/evening. Inverted-V soundings (characterized by 0.5-0.7 inch PW) and modest storm motions will favor mostly dry thunderstorms across northern CA, southeastern OR, far northwestern NV, and southwestern ID -- with a mix of wet/dry storms farther north in east-central OR. These storms will pose a risk of isolated ignitions over any receptive fuels and strong outflow winds. Within the base of the trough, a belt of moderate (30-40 kt) midlevel westerly flow will overspread a deep/well-mixed boundary layer across the Great Basin during the afternoon. As a result, breezy/gusty west-southwesterly surface winds and single-digit RH will yield elevated fire-weather conditions. ..Weinman.. 08/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN UTAH INTO NORTHWESTERN COLORADO... ...Synopsis... Along the northern periphery of a large-scale ridge centered on the Southwest/northern Mexico, a westerly midlevel jet streak will overspread the southern/eastern Great Basin. In response, a weak surface low will develop over eastern UT, resulting in a tightening pressure gradient across the area. ...Southern/eastern UT into northwest CO... Diurnal heating will result in a deeply mixed boundary layer across the southern/eastern Great Basin, where widespread single-digit RH is expected during the afternoon. Boundary-layer mixing into the strengthening flow aloft, coupled with an enhanced pressure gradient, will yield 20 mph west-southwesterly surface wind from southern/eastern UT into northwest CO. The combination of breezy surface winds and low RH will favor critical fire-weather conditions, given receptive fuels across the region. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Intermountain West... Diurnally driven high-based thunderstorms are expected across the Intermountain West, aided by weak large-scale forcing for ascent ahead of a deamplifying midlevel trough. Around 0.7 inch PW and a deep/dry boundary layer will support mostly dry thunderstorms, capable of lightning-induced ignitions over any receptive fuels. ..Weinman.. 08/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN UTAH INTO NORTHWESTERN COLORADO... ...Synopsis... Along the northern periphery of a large-scale ridge centered on the Southwest/northern Mexico, a westerly midlevel jet streak will overspread the southern/eastern Great Basin. In response, a weak surface low will develop over eastern UT, resulting in a tightening pressure gradient across the area. ...Southern/eastern UT into northwest CO... Diurnal heating will result in a deeply mixed boundary layer across the southern/eastern Great Basin, where widespread single-digit RH is expected during the afternoon. Boundary-layer mixing into the strengthening flow aloft, coupled with an enhanced pressure gradient, will yield 20 mph west-southwesterly surface wind from southern/eastern UT into northwest CO. The combination of breezy surface winds and low RH will favor critical fire-weather conditions, given receptive fuels across the region. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Intermountain West... Diurnally driven high-based thunderstorms are expected across the Intermountain West, aided by weak large-scale forcing for ascent ahead of a deamplifying midlevel trough. Around 0.7 inch PW and a deep/dry boundary layer will support mostly dry thunderstorms, capable of lightning-induced ignitions over any receptive fuels. ..Weinman.. 08/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN UTAH INTO NORTHWESTERN COLORADO... ...Synopsis... Along the northern periphery of a large-scale ridge centered on the Southwest/northern Mexico, a westerly midlevel jet streak will overspread the southern/eastern Great Basin. In response, a weak surface low will develop over eastern UT, resulting in a tightening pressure gradient across the area. ...Southern/eastern UT into northwest CO... Diurnal heating will result in a deeply mixed boundary layer across the southern/eastern Great Basin, where widespread single-digit RH is expected during the afternoon. Boundary-layer mixing into the strengthening flow aloft, coupled with an enhanced pressure gradient, will yield 20 mph west-southwesterly surface wind from southern/eastern UT into northwest CO. The combination of breezy surface winds and low RH will favor critical fire-weather conditions, given receptive fuels across the region. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Intermountain West... Diurnally driven high-based thunderstorms are expected across the Intermountain West, aided by weak large-scale forcing for ascent ahead of a deamplifying midlevel trough. Around 0.7 inch PW and a deep/dry boundary layer will support mostly dry thunderstorms, capable of lightning-induced ignitions over any receptive fuels. ..Weinman.. 08/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN UTAH INTO NORTHWESTERN COLORADO... ...Synopsis... Along the northern periphery of a large-scale ridge centered on the Southwest/northern Mexico, a westerly midlevel jet streak will overspread the southern/eastern Great Basin. In response, a weak surface low will develop over eastern UT, resulting in a tightening pressure gradient across the area. ...Southern/eastern UT into northwest CO... Diurnal heating will result in a deeply mixed boundary layer across the southern/eastern Great Basin, where widespread single-digit RH is expected during the afternoon. Boundary-layer mixing into the strengthening flow aloft, coupled with an enhanced pressure gradient, will yield 20 mph west-southwesterly surface wind from southern/eastern UT into northwest CO. The combination of breezy surface winds and low RH will favor critical fire-weather conditions, given receptive fuels across the region. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Intermountain West... Diurnally driven high-based thunderstorms are expected across the Intermountain West, aided by weak large-scale forcing for ascent ahead of a deamplifying midlevel trough. Around 0.7 inch PW and a deep/dry boundary layer will support mostly dry thunderstorms, capable of lightning-induced ignitions over any receptive fuels. ..Weinman.. 08/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with potential for hail and isolated severe gusts will be possible across parts of the High Plains on Sunday. ...High Plains... A subtle mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to move across the central and southern Plains on Sunday, as northwest mid-level flow remains over much of the High Plains. Near the trough, elevated convection is forecast to be ongoing at the start of the period. This slow-moving convection will likely be co-located with a moist axis from northwestern Oklahoma extending northward into east-central Nebraska, and is expected to persist into the early afternoon. Outflow from these storms will negatively impact destabilization. In spite of this, instability is forecast to develop further to the west from the Texas Panhandle northward into western Kansas and west-central Nebraska. NAM forecast soundings from the Texas Panhandle into western Kansas in the late afternoon have moderate deep-layer, mainly due to a substantial amount of directional shear in the low to mid-levels. In addition, low to mid-level lapse rates are forecast to be steep. This could be enough for isolated severe gusts and hail. However, the potential for severe storms could be dampened by subsidence in the wake of the exiting mid-level trough. ..Broyles.. 08/02/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with potential for hail and isolated severe gusts will be possible across parts of the High Plains on Sunday. ...High Plains... A subtle mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to move across the central and southern Plains on Sunday, as northwest mid-level flow remains over much of the High Plains. Near the trough, elevated convection is forecast to be ongoing at the start of the period. This slow-moving convection will likely be co-located with a moist axis from northwestern Oklahoma extending northward into east-central Nebraska, and is expected to persist into the early afternoon. Outflow from these storms will negatively impact destabilization. In spite of this, instability is forecast to develop further to the west from the Texas Panhandle northward into western Kansas and west-central Nebraska. NAM forecast soundings from the Texas Panhandle into western Kansas in the late afternoon have moderate deep-layer, mainly due to a substantial amount of directional shear in the low to mid-levels. In addition, low to mid-level lapse rates are forecast to be steep. This could be enough for isolated severe gusts and hail. However, the potential for severe storms could be dampened by subsidence in the wake of the exiting mid-level trough. ..Broyles.. 08/02/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with potential for hail and isolated severe gusts will be possible across parts of the High Plains on Sunday. ...High Plains... A subtle mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to move across the central and southern Plains on Sunday, as northwest mid-level flow remains over much of the High Plains. Near the trough, elevated convection is forecast to be ongoing at the start of the period. This slow-moving convection will likely be co-located with a moist axis from northwestern Oklahoma extending northward into east-central Nebraska, and is expected to persist into the early afternoon. Outflow from these storms will negatively impact destabilization. In spite of this, instability is forecast to develop further to the west from the Texas Panhandle northward into western Kansas and west-central Nebraska. NAM forecast soundings from the Texas Panhandle into western Kansas in the late afternoon have moderate deep-layer, mainly due to a substantial amount of directional shear in the low to mid-levels. In addition, low to mid-level lapse rates are forecast to be steep. This could be enough for isolated severe gusts and hail. However, the potential for severe storms could be dampened by subsidence in the wake of the exiting mid-level trough. ..Broyles.. 08/02/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with potential for hail and isolated severe gusts will be possible across parts of the High Plains on Sunday. ...High Plains... A subtle mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to move across the central and southern Plains on Sunday, as northwest mid-level flow remains over much of the High Plains. Near the trough, elevated convection is forecast to be ongoing at the start of the period. This slow-moving convection will likely be co-located with a moist axis from northwestern Oklahoma extending northward into east-central Nebraska, and is expected to persist into the early afternoon. Outflow from these storms will negatively impact destabilization. In spite of this, instability is forecast to develop further to the west from the Texas Panhandle northward into western Kansas and west-central Nebraska. NAM forecast soundings from the Texas Panhandle into western Kansas in the late afternoon have moderate deep-layer, mainly due to a substantial amount of directional shear in the low to mid-levels. In addition, low to mid-level lapse rates are forecast to be steep. This could be enough for isolated severe gusts and hail. However, the potential for severe storms could be dampened by subsidence in the wake of the exiting mid-level trough. ..Broyles.. 08/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms capable of large hail and severe wind gusts are expected in parts of the central and southern High Plains today/tonight. Additional strong storms are possible across parts of the Southeast and northern High Plains. ...Central High Plains... Enhanced northwesterly flow aloft within a shortwave trough along the periphery of an upper ridge centered over the Southwest will overspread the central Rockies and High Plains today. At the surface, a weakening frontal zone/lee trough will serve as the focus for strong/severe storm development across the central High Plains within a broad low-level upslope flow regime. As ascent increases throughout the day, modest low-level moisture will pool along the front and near the higher terrain across parts of CO/WY. Diurnal heating will support the development of moderate to large buoyancy overlain by 40+ kt of deep-layer shear, and fairly steep low/mid-level lapse rates. This should allow for storm organization with a mix of clusters and supercell structures capable of large hail initially. Stronger backed low-level flow along the stalled front, plus local terrain enhancement could also support a tornado or two. However, generally weaker low-level shear and large temperature/dewpoint spreads may be somewhat prohibitive away from the boundary where surface moisture is less robust. With weak inhibition and broad-scale ascent supporting the potential for numerous storms this afternoon, outflow consolidation is expected fairly quickly this afternoon. The upscale growth should allow for one or more clusters with a mainly damaging wind threat to continue across the High Plains. A modest low-level jet is expected to develop during the evening, further sustaining a stronger cluster with potentially damaging gusts and hail into parts of southeastern CO/western KS and TX/OK Panhandles tonight. ...Northern High Plains... Broad troughing over the Northwest will aide the development of scattered thunderstorms this afternoon along the northern reaches of the stalled front/lee trough. While stronger flow aloft will be displaced to the south, steep mid-level lapse rates and ~1500 J/kg of MLCAPE could support a few strong multicell clusters potentially capable of severe gusts. The highest storm coverage is most likely near the higher terrain across northern WY and southern MT through the afternoon and early evening hours. ...Southeast... A cold front over the southern US will continue to slowly move south toward the Gulf Coast tonight. Ahead of the front, a seasonably warm and moist air mass will be in place over much of the Southeast. Strong diurnal heating, along with weak ascent near the front and from a broad but weak eastern US trough should allow for scattered to numerous thunderstorms to develop by early afternoon across much of the South. Limited vertical shear (average less than 20 kts) will favor a multicellular/pulse storm mode with the potential for clustering. High PWATs could support occasional wet microbursts and damaging gusts through the afternoon and evening. Slightly stronger low-level convergence maximized near a weak frontal wave/MCV could allow for greater storm coverage/clustering across portions of southeastern AL, southern GA into northern FL. ..Lyons.. 08/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms capable of large hail and severe wind gusts are expected in parts of the central and southern High Plains today/tonight. Additional strong storms are possible across parts of the Southeast and northern High Plains. ...Central High Plains... Enhanced northwesterly flow aloft within a shortwave trough along the periphery of an upper ridge centered over the Southwest will overspread the central Rockies and High Plains today. At the surface, a weakening frontal zone/lee trough will serve as the focus for strong/severe storm development across the central High Plains within a broad low-level upslope flow regime. As ascent increases throughout the day, modest low-level moisture will pool along the front and near the higher terrain across parts of CO/WY. Diurnal heating will support the development of moderate to large buoyancy overlain by 40+ kt of deep-layer shear, and fairly steep low/mid-level lapse rates. This should allow for storm organization with a mix of clusters and supercell structures capable of large hail initially. Stronger backed low-level flow along the stalled front, plus local terrain enhancement could also support a tornado or two. However, generally weaker low-level shear and large temperature/dewpoint spreads may be somewhat prohibitive away from the boundary where surface moisture is less robust. With weak inhibition and broad-scale ascent supporting the potential for numerous storms this afternoon, outflow consolidation is expected fairly quickly this afternoon. The upscale growth should allow for one or more clusters with a mainly damaging wind threat to continue across the High Plains. A modest low-level jet is expected to develop during the evening, further sustaining a stronger cluster with potentially damaging gusts and hail into parts of southeastern CO/western KS and TX/OK Panhandles tonight. ...Northern High Plains... Broad troughing over the Northwest will aide the development of scattered thunderstorms this afternoon along the northern reaches of the stalled front/lee trough. While stronger flow aloft will be displaced to the south, steep mid-level lapse rates and ~1500 J/kg of MLCAPE could support a few strong multicell clusters potentially capable of severe gusts. The highest storm coverage is most likely near the higher terrain across northern WY and southern MT through the afternoon and early evening hours. ...Southeast... A cold front over the southern US will continue to slowly move south toward the Gulf Coast tonight. Ahead of the front, a seasonably warm and moist air mass will be in place over much of the Southeast. Strong diurnal heating, along with weak ascent near the front and from a broad but weak eastern US trough should allow for scattered to numerous thunderstorms to develop by early afternoon across much of the South. Limited vertical shear (average less than 20 kts) will favor a multicellular/pulse storm mode with the potential for clustering. High PWATs could support occasional wet microbursts and damaging gusts through the afternoon and evening. Slightly stronger low-level convergence maximized near a weak frontal wave/MCV could allow for greater storm coverage/clustering across portions of southeastern AL, southern GA into northern FL. ..Lyons.. 08/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms capable of large hail and severe wind gusts are expected in parts of the central and southern High Plains today/tonight. Additional strong storms are possible across parts of the Southeast and northern High Plains. ...Central High Plains... Enhanced northwesterly flow aloft within a shortwave trough along the periphery of an upper ridge centered over the Southwest will overspread the central Rockies and High Plains today. At the surface, a weakening frontal zone/lee trough will serve as the focus for strong/severe storm development across the central High Plains within a broad low-level upslope flow regime. As ascent increases throughout the day, modest low-level moisture will pool along the front and near the higher terrain across parts of CO/WY. Diurnal heating will support the development of moderate to large buoyancy overlain by 40+ kt of deep-layer shear, and fairly steep low/mid-level lapse rates. This should allow for storm organization with a mix of clusters and supercell structures capable of large hail initially. Stronger backed low-level flow along the stalled front, plus local terrain enhancement could also support a tornado or two. However, generally weaker low-level shear and large temperature/dewpoint spreads may be somewhat prohibitive away from the boundary where surface moisture is less robust. With weak inhibition and broad-scale ascent supporting the potential for numerous storms this afternoon, outflow consolidation is expected fairly quickly this afternoon. The upscale growth should allow for one or more clusters with a mainly damaging wind threat to continue across the High Plains. A modest low-level jet is expected to develop during the evening, further sustaining a stronger cluster with potentially damaging gusts and hail into parts of southeastern CO/western KS and TX/OK Panhandles tonight. ...Northern High Plains... Broad troughing over the Northwest will aide the development of scattered thunderstorms this afternoon along the northern reaches of the stalled front/lee trough. While stronger flow aloft will be displaced to the south, steep mid-level lapse rates and ~1500 J/kg of MLCAPE could support a few strong multicell clusters potentially capable of severe gusts. The highest storm coverage is most likely near the higher terrain across northern WY and southern MT through the afternoon and early evening hours. ...Southeast... A cold front over the southern US will continue to slowly move south toward the Gulf Coast tonight. Ahead of the front, a seasonably warm and moist air mass will be in place over much of the Southeast. Strong diurnal heating, along with weak ascent near the front and from a broad but weak eastern US trough should allow for scattered to numerous thunderstorms to develop by early afternoon across much of the South. Limited vertical shear (average less than 20 kts) will favor a multicellular/pulse storm mode with the potential for clustering. High PWATs could support occasional wet microbursts and damaging gusts through the afternoon and evening. Slightly stronger low-level convergence maximized near a weak frontal wave/MCV could allow for greater storm coverage/clustering across portions of southeastern AL, southern GA into northern FL. ..Lyons.. 08/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms capable of large hail and severe wind gusts are expected in parts of the central and southern High Plains today/tonight. Additional strong storms are possible across parts of the Southeast and northern High Plains. ...Central High Plains... Enhanced northwesterly flow aloft within a shortwave trough along the periphery of an upper ridge centered over the Southwest will overspread the central Rockies and High Plains today. At the surface, a weakening frontal zone/lee trough will serve as the focus for strong/severe storm development across the central High Plains within a broad low-level upslope flow regime. As ascent increases throughout the day, modest low-level moisture will pool along the front and near the higher terrain across parts of CO/WY. Diurnal heating will support the development of moderate to large buoyancy overlain by 40+ kt of deep-layer shear, and fairly steep low/mid-level lapse rates. This should allow for storm organization with a mix of clusters and supercell structures capable of large hail initially. Stronger backed low-level flow along the stalled front, plus local terrain enhancement could also support a tornado or two. However, generally weaker low-level shear and large temperature/dewpoint spreads may be somewhat prohibitive away from the boundary where surface moisture is less robust. With weak inhibition and broad-scale ascent supporting the potential for numerous storms this afternoon, outflow consolidation is expected fairly quickly this afternoon. The upscale growth should allow for one or more clusters with a mainly damaging wind threat to continue across the High Plains. A modest low-level jet is expected to develop during the evening, further sustaining a stronger cluster with potentially damaging gusts and hail into parts of southeastern CO/western KS and TX/OK Panhandles tonight. ...Northern High Plains... Broad troughing over the Northwest will aide the development of scattered thunderstorms this afternoon along the northern reaches of the stalled front/lee trough. While stronger flow aloft will be displaced to the south, steep mid-level lapse rates and ~1500 J/kg of MLCAPE could support a few strong multicell clusters potentially capable of severe gusts. The highest storm coverage is most likely near the higher terrain across northern WY and southern MT through the afternoon and early evening hours. ...Southeast... A cold front over the southern US will continue to slowly move south toward the Gulf Coast tonight. Ahead of the front, a seasonably warm and moist air mass will be in place over much of the Southeast. Strong diurnal heating, along with weak ascent near the front and from a broad but weak eastern US trough should allow for scattered to numerous thunderstorms to develop by early afternoon across much of the South. Limited vertical shear (average less than 20 kts) will favor a multicellular/pulse storm mode with the potential for clustering. High PWATs could support occasional wet microbursts and damaging gusts through the afternoon and evening. Slightly stronger low-level convergence maximized near a weak frontal wave/MCV could allow for greater storm coverage/clustering across portions of southeastern AL, southern GA into northern FL. ..Lyons.. 08/02/2025 Read more