Severe Storms

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms capable of large hail and severe wind gusts are expected in parts of the central and southern High Plains today/tonight. Additional strong storms are possible across parts of the Southeast and northern High Plains. ...Central High Plains... Enhanced northwesterly flow aloft within a shortwave trough along the periphery of an upper ridge centered over the Southwest will overspread the central Rockies and High Plains today. At the surface, a weakening frontal zone/lee trough will serve as the focus for strong/severe storm development across the central High Plains within a broad low-level upslope flow regime. As ascent increases throughout the day, modest low-level moisture will pool along the front and near the higher terrain across parts of CO/WY. Diurnal heating will support the development of moderate to large buoyancy overlain by 40+ kt of deep-layer shear, and fairly steep low/mid-level lapse rates. This should allow for storm organization with a mix of clusters and supercell structures capable of large hail initially. Stronger backed low-level flow along the stalled front, plus local terrain enhancement could also support a tornado or two. However, generally weaker low-level shear and large temperature/dewpoint spreads may be somewhat prohibitive away from the boundary where surface moisture is less robust. With weak inhibition and broad-scale ascent supporting the potential for numerous storms this afternoon, outflow consolidation is expected fairly quickly this afternoon. The upscale growth should allow for one or more clusters with a mainly damaging wind threat to continue across the High Plains. A modest low-level jet is expected to develop during the evening, further sustaining a stronger cluster with potentially damaging gusts and hail into parts of southeastern CO/western KS and TX/OK Panhandles tonight. ...Northern High Plains... Broad troughing over the Northwest will aide the development of scattered thunderstorms this afternoon along the northern reaches of the stalled front/lee trough. While stronger flow aloft will be displaced to the south, steep mid-level lapse rates and ~1500 J/kg of MLCAPE could support a few strong multicell clusters potentially capable of severe gusts. The highest storm coverage is most likely near the higher terrain across northern WY and southern MT through the afternoon and early evening hours. ...Southeast... A cold front over the southern US will continue to slowly move south toward the Gulf Coast tonight. Ahead of the front, a seasonably warm and moist air mass will be in place over much of the Southeast. Strong diurnal heating, along with weak ascent near the front and from a broad but weak eastern US trough should allow for scattered to numerous thunderstorms to develop by early afternoon across much of the South. Limited vertical shear (average less than 20 kts) will favor a multicellular/pulse storm mode with the potential for clustering. High PWATs could support occasional wet microbursts and damaging gusts through the afternoon and evening. Slightly stronger low-level convergence maximized near a weak frontal wave/MCV could allow for greater storm coverage/clustering across portions of southeastern AL, southern GA into northern FL. ..Lyons.. 08/02/2025 Read more

WW 0565 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 565 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NNE DGW TO 55 WNW RAP TO 55 SSW 2WX TO 55 N RAP TO 65 NNW PHP TO 40 NNE PHP TO 30 WSW PIR TO 30 SE PIR. ..DEAN..08/02/25 ATTN...WFO...UNR...ABR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 565 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS SDC019-055-075-081-093-103-020540- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUTTE HAAKON JONES LAWRENCE MEADE PENNINGTON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 565 SEVERE TSTM SD 012155Z - 020500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 565 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 355 PM MDT Fri Aug 1 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Western and Central South Dakota * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 355 PM until 1100 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...An ongoing supercell/small cluster may continue to pose a threat for large hail up to 1-2 inches in diameter across parts of northwest South Dakota. Over the next several hours, additional thunderstorms may form and consolidate into a bowing cluster with a greater threat for severe/damaging winds up to 65-75 mph. A tornado or two also appears possible. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles north and south of a line from 40 miles west northwest of Rapid City SD to 80 miles northeast of Philip SD. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 564... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 31020. ...Gleason Read more

MD 1871 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 565... FOR NORTHEAST WY INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL SD
Mesoscale Discussion 1871 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0948 PM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025 Areas affected...Northeast WY into western/central SD Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 565... Valid 020248Z - 020415Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 565 continues. SUMMARY...Some severe threat may continue into late evening. DISCUSSION...Convection initially associated with an MCV across northwest SD has evolved into a forward-propagating MCS this evening. Winds associated with this MCS have largely been subsevere thus far, though a strengthening low-level jet continues to help maintain this system, and strong to locally severe gusts remain possible as it propagates south-southeastward. Moderate buoyancy and steep lapse rates (as noted on the 00Z UNR sounding), along with a favorable wind profile (as observed in recent VWPs from KUDX), may also continue to support at least transient supercells along the southwestern flank of this system, accompanied by a threat for isolated large hail and possibly a brief tornado. Farther west, a cluster of storms is moving eastward across far northeast WY. Some short-term intensification cannot be ruled out with this cluster, as it encounters somewhat more favorable low-level moisture and buoyancy with eastward extent. Eventually, increasing CINH should result in a general weakening trend for both areas of convection within WW 565, though some remnant of the MCS across western SD may persist into late tonight. ..Dean.. 08/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ABR...UNR... LAT...LON 44950518 44890315 44750160 45380105 45470061 45410023 44930020 44160000 43680035 43620119 43800254 43760378 43620438 43700472 44100489 44950518 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

WW 0564 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 564 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WNW ITR TO 30 ESE AKO TO 40 E SNY. WW 564 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 020400Z. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1870 ..DEAN..08/02/25 ATTN...WFO...BOU...CYS... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 564 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC095-115-020400- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE PHILLIPS SEDGWICK THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0564 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 564 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WNW ITR TO 30 ESE AKO TO 40 E SNY. WW 564 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 020400Z. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1870 ..DEAN..08/02/25 ATTN...WFO...BOU...CYS... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 564 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC095-115-020400- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE PHILLIPS SEDGWICK THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 564 TORNADO CO NE WY 012045Z - 020400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 564 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 245 PM MDT Fri Aug 1 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Northeast Colorado Nebraska Panhandle Southeast Wyoming * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 245 PM until 1000 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are forecast to continue to develop and intensify this afternoon and persist through the evening. The stronger storms will likely become supercellular and pose a risk for large to very large hail (1 to 3 inches in diameter). A couple of tornadoes are also possible mainly towards the late afternoon and early evening when the peak supercell phase is forecast. Upscale growth into a thunderstorm cluster may subsequently occur this evening and the risk for severe gusts may correspondingly increase. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles east and west of a line from 15 miles west northwest of Scottsbluff NE to 30 miles west southwest of Akron CO. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 28015. ...Smith Read more

WW 0565 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 565 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNE DGW TO 35 E GCC TO 35 SSE 4BQ TO 55 N RAP TO 65 S Y22 TO 50 SW MBG TO 35 W MBG TO 25 E MBG. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1871 ..DEAN..08/02/25 ATTN...WFO...UNR...ABR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 565 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS SDC019-033-041-055-071-075-081-093-095-103-117-137-020440- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUTTE CUSTER DEWEY HAAKON JACKSON JONES LAWRENCE MEADE MELLETTE PENNINGTON STANLEY ZIEBACH WYC011-045-020440- WY . WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CROOK WESTON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES Read more

MD 1870 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 564... FOR PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN COLORADO AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA
Mesoscale Discussion 1870 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0919 PM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025 Areas affected...Parts of northeastern Colorado and far southwestern Nebraska Concerning...Tornado Watch 564... Valid 020219Z - 020345Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 564 continues. SUMMARY...A localized severe risk will continue for another hour or two across parts of Tornado Watch 564. A downstream watch is not currently expected. DISCUSSION...A well-established storm cluster (with recent measured gusts up to 70 mph) is tracking southeastward at around 30 kt across far northeastern CO. A narrow corridor of moderately unstable inflow (lower 60s dewpoints), 30-40 kt of effective shear, and an established 30-35 kt low-level jet (per VWP data) will support the maintenance of these storms with southeastward extent for at least the next hour or two. Given the cluster storm mode, severe wind gusts continue to be the primary concern, though a brief tornado cannot be entirely ruled out -- given enhanced low-level hodograph curvature accompanying the low-level jet (around 250 m2/s2 effective SRH) and moist boundary layer. While these storms may move out of Tornado Watch 564, current thinking is that increasing nocturnal static stability should eventually limit the severe risk with east-southeastward extent. Therefore, a downstream watch is not currently expected, though convective trends are being monitored. ..Weinman/Gleason.. 08/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS... LAT...LON 40740360 41170300 41230248 41020199 40390156 39970181 39740234 39850308 40310362 40740360 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

MD 1869 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO
Mesoscale Discussion 1869 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0754 PM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025 Areas affected...Parts of southeastern Colorado Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 020054Z - 020230Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A localized risk of severe wind and hail will continue for another hour or so across southeastern Colorado. DISCUSSION...Two fairly persistent/organized clusters of severe storms continue advancing eastward across the southeastern CO Plains this evening -- both generally focused along intersecting outflow boundaries. Rich boundary-layer moisture (lower 60s dewpoints) and steep deep-layer lapse rates are yielding a corridor of weak-moderate surface-based buoyancy, which should continue to support the maintenance of these storm clusters for another hour or so -- especially given around 30 kt of deep-layer shear (per nearby VWP data). While these storms will continue to pose a risk of severe wind gusts and isolated large hail in the near-term, the overall risk still appears too spatially/temporally limited for a watch (see DDC 00Z sounding). ..Weinman/Gleason.. 08/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU... LAT...LON 37600334 38480357 38830351 39290315 39380258 39120210 38360218 37590224 37130260 37120295 37600334 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

WW 0564 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 564 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ENE DEN TO 35 WNW SNY TO 50 ENE SNY. ..WEINMAN..08/02/25 ATTN...WFO...BOU...CYS... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 564 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC075-087-095-115-121-123-020240- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE LOGAN MORGAN PHILLIPS SEDGWICK WASHINGTON WELD NEC033-105-020240- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE KIMBALL THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0564 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 564 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ENE DEN TO 35 WNW SNY TO 50 ENE SNY. ..WEINMAN..08/02/25 ATTN...WFO...BOU...CYS... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 564 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC075-087-095-115-121-123-020240- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE LOGAN MORGAN PHILLIPS SEDGWICK WASHINGTON WELD NEC033-105-020240- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE KIMBALL THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0565 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 565 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SW 4BQ TO 55 SW 2WX TO 50 SSE 2WX TO 60 S Y22 TO 45 ESE Y22 TO 30 ENE MBG. ..DEAN..08/02/25 ATTN...WFO...UNR...ABR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 565 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS SDC019-033-041-055-071-075-081-093-095-103-117-137-020240- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUTTE CUSTER DEWEY HAAKON JACKSON JONES LAWRENCE MEADE MELLETTE PENNINGTON STANLEY ZIEBACH WYC005-011-045-020240- WY . WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CAMPBELL CROOK WESTON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0565 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 565 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SW 4BQ TO 55 SW 2WX TO 50 SSE 2WX TO 60 S Y22 TO 45 ESE Y22 TO 30 ENE MBG. ..DEAN..08/02/25 ATTN...WFO...UNR...ABR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 565 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS SDC019-033-041-055-071-075-081-093-095-103-117-137-020240- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUTTE CUSTER DEWEY HAAKON JACKSON JONES LAWRENCE MEADE MELLETTE PENNINGTON STANLEY ZIEBACH WYC005-011-045-020240- WY . WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CAMPBELL CROOK WESTON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0801 PM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025 Valid 020100Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms remain likely across parts of the High Plains this evening. Large to very large hail, a couple of tornadoes, and severe gusts may occur. Early evening water vapor imagery showed broad troughing over much of the eastern US with subtropical ridging and several weaker disturbances over the western US. At the surface, numerous thunderstorms are ongoing along and south of a slow-moving cold front from the southern Plains to the Southeast states. To the west, the stalled front and several MCVs over the High Plains will continue to be the focus for severe storm activity through this evening. ...Northern Rockies... Several clusters of strong to severe storms from eastern MT to northeast WY and western SD are likely to continue for a few hours this evening. The strongest of these clusters is located near a remnant MCV northeast of the Black Hills. The downstream environment over SD remains broadly favorable for organized clusters and supercells with moderate buoyancy and 30-40 kt of deep-layer bulk shear. CAM guidance and observational trends show a continued risk for severe gusts and hail into this evening with this cluster of storms, and any additional convection able to mature off the Black Hills. The favorable environment and increased low-level convergence/shear near the MCV could also perhaps support a brief tornado or two. Elsewhere, isolated severe gusts and/or some hail may accompany occasional stronger storms from eastern MT to northeast WY. However, the loss of diurnal heating and weaker forcing should keep the risk isolated as convection gradually weakens this evening. ...Central High Plains... Several clusters of severe storms, including supercells, have developed and rapidly matured across southeastern Wyoming and eastern Colorado. Seasonably rich moisture along the stalled boundary over the High Plains will continue to support moderate instability beneath a belt of enhanced mid-level west/northwesterly flow. With supercell wind profiles near the Cheyenne Ridge and adjacent northeast CO, large to very large hail remains likely. A tornado or two is also possible as storms move farther east/southeast near the front where deeper moisture and stronger low-level shear are expected for the next couple of hours. Thereafter, upscale growth with this activity should gradually transition to primarily a risk for severe gusts with organized clusters/line segments this evening with eastward extent. ...Southeast... Numerous showers and thunderstorm clusters have evolved ahead of the slow-moving cold front across such of the Southeast. Moderate buoyancy should gradually begin to wane with the loss of diurnal heating this evening. However, a few of the stronger clusters are likely to persist for an hour or two after sunset, especially where greater storm coverage exists across parts of eastern GA and SC. Isolated damaging gusts will remain possible before storms gradually weaken into the overnight hours. ..Lyons.. 08/02/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0801 PM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025 Valid 020100Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms remain likely across parts of the High Plains this evening. Large to very large hail, a couple of tornadoes, and severe gusts may occur. Early evening water vapor imagery showed broad troughing over much of the eastern US with subtropical ridging and several weaker disturbances over the western US. At the surface, numerous thunderstorms are ongoing along and south of a slow-moving cold front from the southern Plains to the Southeast states. To the west, the stalled front and several MCVs over the High Plains will continue to be the focus for severe storm activity through this evening. ...Northern Rockies... Several clusters of strong to severe storms from eastern MT to northeast WY and western SD are likely to continue for a few hours this evening. The strongest of these clusters is located near a remnant MCV northeast of the Black Hills. The downstream environment over SD remains broadly favorable for organized clusters and supercells with moderate buoyancy and 30-40 kt of deep-layer bulk shear. CAM guidance and observational trends show a continued risk for severe gusts and hail into this evening with this cluster of storms, and any additional convection able to mature off the Black Hills. The favorable environment and increased low-level convergence/shear near the MCV could also perhaps support a brief tornado or two. Elsewhere, isolated severe gusts and/or some hail may accompany occasional stronger storms from eastern MT to northeast WY. However, the loss of diurnal heating and weaker forcing should keep the risk isolated as convection gradually weakens this evening. ...Central High Plains... Several clusters of severe storms, including supercells, have developed and rapidly matured across southeastern Wyoming and eastern Colorado. Seasonably rich moisture along the stalled boundary over the High Plains will continue to support moderate instability beneath a belt of enhanced mid-level west/northwesterly flow. With supercell wind profiles near the Cheyenne Ridge and adjacent northeast CO, large to very large hail remains likely. A tornado or two is also possible as storms move farther east/southeast near the front where deeper moisture and stronger low-level shear are expected for the next couple of hours. Thereafter, upscale growth with this activity should gradually transition to primarily a risk for severe gusts with organized clusters/line segments this evening with eastward extent. ...Southeast... Numerous showers and thunderstorm clusters have evolved ahead of the slow-moving cold front across such of the Southeast. Moderate buoyancy should gradually begin to wane with the loss of diurnal heating this evening. However, a few of the stronger clusters are likely to persist for an hour or two after sunset, especially where greater storm coverage exists across parts of eastern GA and SC. Isolated damaging gusts will remain possible before storms gradually weaken into the overnight hours. ..Lyons.. 08/02/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0801 PM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025 Valid 020100Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms remain likely across parts of the High Plains this evening. Large to very large hail, a couple of tornadoes, and severe gusts may occur. Early evening water vapor imagery showed broad troughing over much of the eastern US with subtropical ridging and several weaker disturbances over the western US. At the surface, numerous thunderstorms are ongoing along and south of a slow-moving cold front from the southern Plains to the Southeast states. To the west, the stalled front and several MCVs over the High Plains will continue to be the focus for severe storm activity through this evening. ...Northern Rockies... Several clusters of strong to severe storms from eastern MT to northeast WY and western SD are likely to continue for a few hours this evening. The strongest of these clusters is located near a remnant MCV northeast of the Black Hills. The downstream environment over SD remains broadly favorable for organized clusters and supercells with moderate buoyancy and 30-40 kt of deep-layer bulk shear. CAM guidance and observational trends show a continued risk for severe gusts and hail into this evening with this cluster of storms, and any additional convection able to mature off the Black Hills. The favorable environment and increased low-level convergence/shear near the MCV could also perhaps support a brief tornado or two. Elsewhere, isolated severe gusts and/or some hail may accompany occasional stronger storms from eastern MT to northeast WY. However, the loss of diurnal heating and weaker forcing should keep the risk isolated as convection gradually weakens this evening. ...Central High Plains... Several clusters of severe storms, including supercells, have developed and rapidly matured across southeastern Wyoming and eastern Colorado. Seasonably rich moisture along the stalled boundary over the High Plains will continue to support moderate instability beneath a belt of enhanced mid-level west/northwesterly flow. With supercell wind profiles near the Cheyenne Ridge and adjacent northeast CO, large to very large hail remains likely. A tornado or two is also possible as storms move farther east/southeast near the front where deeper moisture and stronger low-level shear are expected for the next couple of hours. Thereafter, upscale growth with this activity should gradually transition to primarily a risk for severe gusts with organized clusters/line segments this evening with eastward extent. ...Southeast... Numerous showers and thunderstorm clusters have evolved ahead of the slow-moving cold front across such of the Southeast. Moderate buoyancy should gradually begin to wane with the loss of diurnal heating this evening. However, a few of the stronger clusters are likely to persist for an hour or two after sunset, especially where greater storm coverage exists across parts of eastern GA and SC. Isolated damaging gusts will remain possible before storms gradually weaken into the overnight hours. ..Lyons.. 08/02/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0801 PM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025 Valid 020100Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms remain likely across parts of the High Plains this evening. Large to very large hail, a couple of tornadoes, and severe gusts may occur. Early evening water vapor imagery showed broad troughing over much of the eastern US with subtropical ridging and several weaker disturbances over the western US. At the surface, numerous thunderstorms are ongoing along and south of a slow-moving cold front from the southern Plains to the Southeast states. To the west, the stalled front and several MCVs over the High Plains will continue to be the focus for severe storm activity through this evening. ...Northern Rockies... Several clusters of strong to severe storms from eastern MT to northeast WY and western SD are likely to continue for a few hours this evening. The strongest of these clusters is located near a remnant MCV northeast of the Black Hills. The downstream environment over SD remains broadly favorable for organized clusters and supercells with moderate buoyancy and 30-40 kt of deep-layer bulk shear. CAM guidance and observational trends show a continued risk for severe gusts and hail into this evening with this cluster of storms, and any additional convection able to mature off the Black Hills. The favorable environment and increased low-level convergence/shear near the MCV could also perhaps support a brief tornado or two. Elsewhere, isolated severe gusts and/or some hail may accompany occasional stronger storms from eastern MT to northeast WY. However, the loss of diurnal heating and weaker forcing should keep the risk isolated as convection gradually weakens this evening. ...Central High Plains... Several clusters of severe storms, including supercells, have developed and rapidly matured across southeastern Wyoming and eastern Colorado. Seasonably rich moisture along the stalled boundary over the High Plains will continue to support moderate instability beneath a belt of enhanced mid-level west/northwesterly flow. With supercell wind profiles near the Cheyenne Ridge and adjacent northeast CO, large to very large hail remains likely. A tornado or two is also possible as storms move farther east/southeast near the front where deeper moisture and stronger low-level shear are expected for the next couple of hours. Thereafter, upscale growth with this activity should gradually transition to primarily a risk for severe gusts with organized clusters/line segments this evening with eastward extent. ...Southeast... Numerous showers and thunderstorm clusters have evolved ahead of the slow-moving cold front across such of the Southeast. Moderate buoyancy should gradually begin to wane with the loss of diurnal heating this evening. However, a few of the stronger clusters are likely to persist for an hour or two after sunset, especially where greater storm coverage exists across parts of eastern GA and SC. Isolated damaging gusts will remain possible before storms gradually weaken into the overnight hours. ..Lyons.. 08/02/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0801 PM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025 Valid 020100Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms remain likely across parts of the High Plains this evening. Large to very large hail, a couple of tornadoes, and severe gusts may occur. Early evening water vapor imagery showed broad troughing over much of the eastern US with subtropical ridging and several weaker disturbances over the western US. At the surface, numerous thunderstorms are ongoing along and south of a slow-moving cold front from the southern Plains to the Southeast states. To the west, the stalled front and several MCVs over the High Plains will continue to be the focus for severe storm activity through this evening. ...Northern Rockies... Several clusters of strong to severe storms from eastern MT to northeast WY and western SD are likely to continue for a few hours this evening. The strongest of these clusters is located near a remnant MCV northeast of the Black Hills. The downstream environment over SD remains broadly favorable for organized clusters and supercells with moderate buoyancy and 30-40 kt of deep-layer bulk shear. CAM guidance and observational trends show a continued risk for severe gusts and hail into this evening with this cluster of storms, and any additional convection able to mature off the Black Hills. The favorable environment and increased low-level convergence/shear near the MCV could also perhaps support a brief tornado or two. Elsewhere, isolated severe gusts and/or some hail may accompany occasional stronger storms from eastern MT to northeast WY. However, the loss of diurnal heating and weaker forcing should keep the risk isolated as convection gradually weakens this evening. ...Central High Plains... Several clusters of severe storms, including supercells, have developed and rapidly matured across southeastern Wyoming and eastern Colorado. Seasonably rich moisture along the stalled boundary over the High Plains will continue to support moderate instability beneath a belt of enhanced mid-level west/northwesterly flow. With supercell wind profiles near the Cheyenne Ridge and adjacent northeast CO, large to very large hail remains likely. A tornado or two is also possible as storms move farther east/southeast near the front where deeper moisture and stronger low-level shear are expected for the next couple of hours. Thereafter, upscale growth with this activity should gradually transition to primarily a risk for severe gusts with organized clusters/line segments this evening with eastward extent. ...Southeast... Numerous showers and thunderstorm clusters have evolved ahead of the slow-moving cold front across such of the Southeast. Moderate buoyancy should gradually begin to wane with the loss of diurnal heating this evening. However, a few of the stronger clusters are likely to persist for an hour or two after sunset, especially where greater storm coverage exists across parts of eastern GA and SC. Isolated damaging gusts will remain possible before storms gradually weaken into the overnight hours. ..Lyons.. 08/02/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0801 PM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025 Valid 020100Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms remain likely across parts of the High Plains this evening. Large to very large hail, a couple of tornadoes, and severe gusts may occur. Early evening water vapor imagery showed broad troughing over much of the eastern US with subtropical ridging and several weaker disturbances over the western US. At the surface, numerous thunderstorms are ongoing along and south of a slow-moving cold front from the southern Plains to the Southeast states. To the west, the stalled front and several MCVs over the High Plains will continue to be the focus for severe storm activity through this evening. ...Northern Rockies... Several clusters of strong to severe storms from eastern MT to northeast WY and western SD are likely to continue for a few hours this evening. The strongest of these clusters is located near a remnant MCV northeast of the Black Hills. The downstream environment over SD remains broadly favorable for organized clusters and supercells with moderate buoyancy and 30-40 kt of deep-layer bulk shear. CAM guidance and observational trends show a continued risk for severe gusts and hail into this evening with this cluster of storms, and any additional convection able to mature off the Black Hills. The favorable environment and increased low-level convergence/shear near the MCV could also perhaps support a brief tornado or two. Elsewhere, isolated severe gusts and/or some hail may accompany occasional stronger storms from eastern MT to northeast WY. However, the loss of diurnal heating and weaker forcing should keep the risk isolated as convection gradually weakens this evening. ...Central High Plains... Several clusters of severe storms, including supercells, have developed and rapidly matured across southeastern Wyoming and eastern Colorado. Seasonably rich moisture along the stalled boundary over the High Plains will continue to support moderate instability beneath a belt of enhanced mid-level west/northwesterly flow. With supercell wind profiles near the Cheyenne Ridge and adjacent northeast CO, large to very large hail remains likely. A tornado or two is also possible as storms move farther east/southeast near the front where deeper moisture and stronger low-level shear are expected for the next couple of hours. Thereafter, upscale growth with this activity should gradually transition to primarily a risk for severe gusts with organized clusters/line segments this evening with eastward extent. ...Southeast... Numerous showers and thunderstorm clusters have evolved ahead of the slow-moving cold front across such of the Southeast. Moderate buoyancy should gradually begin to wane with the loss of diurnal heating this evening. However, a few of the stronger clusters are likely to persist for an hour or two after sunset, especially where greater storm coverage exists across parts of eastern GA and SC. Isolated damaging gusts will remain possible before storms gradually weaken into the overnight hours. ..Lyons.. 08/02/2025 Read more