Severe Storms

WW 0564 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0564 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

No watches are valid as of Fri Aug 1 20:01:01 UTC 2025.

MD 1861 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR FAR SOUTHERN VIRGINIA INTO NORTH CAROLINA AND NORTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA
Mesoscale Discussion 1861 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0144 PM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025 Areas affected...Far southern Virginia into North Carolina and northern South Carolina Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 011844Z - 012045Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms emanating off the Blue Ridge Mountains and developing along a cold front will pose a damaging wind threat through early evening. Watch issuance is not expected. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm development is well underway along the Blue Ridge Mountains amid a combination of diurnal destabilization and increasing ascent due to both lift along an approaching baroclinic zone and modest upslope flow. Additionally, thunderstorms are beginning to slowly intensify along a weak cold front across northern SC where temperatures have warmed into the low 90s. Although deep-layer flow is fairly weak (generally less than 20 knots through 6 km), somewhat uniform ascent along the terrain/front is promoting sufficient convective coverage/spacing to favor multicell clusters with consolidated cold pools. The expectation through early evening is for one or more clusters to emerge off the terrain and propagate south/southeast into the more buoyant air mass across the Carolinas ahead of the primary baroclinic zone. As this occurs, a combination of high PWAT values (well above 2.0 inches) and steepening 0-2 km lapse rates should promote wet downbursts capable of transient strong to severe gusts (mainly 45-65 mph) within the stronger clusters. While wind damage is probable, the poor kinematic environment should limit the overall propensity for severe convection and precludes watch issuance. ..Moore/Smith.. 08/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CAE...GSP... LAT...LON 33687892 33588016 33988178 34288245 34528268 34838282 35118283 35438264 35858221 36408152 37008045 37148005 37177980 37107962 36977939 36807927 36627916 36407912 36177914 35927911 35697897 35517885 35297865 35167840 34977805 34817776 34627758 34487755 34337753 34147757 33917782 33807822 33687892 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025 Valid 012000Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the High Plains this afternoon and evening. Large to very large hail, a couple of tornadoes, and severe gusts are possible. ...20z Update... The forecast largely remains on track. The primary update was to introduce 5% tornado probabilities across portions of northwest SD ahead of a pronounced MCV where initial stages of thunderstorm development are noted in recent GOES/lightning data. Visible imagery shows slowly building cumulus within the southeasterly flow regime ahead of the MCV as temperatures warm into the mid/upper 70s. Forecast soundings suggest this is adequate for surface-based convection, and depict enlarging hodographs later this evening as the nocturnal jet strengthens. While localized, this environment may be somewhat more favorable for tornadoes compared to adjacent portions of SD. Elsewhere, minimal changes are required. 5% wind probabilities were amended slightly across portions of the Carolinas to better reflect recent thunderstorm development/trends. See the previous discussion below as well as MCDs #1860-1862 for additional details. ..Moore.. 08/01/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025/ ...High Plains... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a few disturbances undercutting an upper ridge currently over the High Plains/Alberta. An MCV is slowly moving eastward near the MT/WY/SD/ND border, a more pronounced upper trough will remain over the northern Rockies and adjacent high plains of MT, and a more subtle disturbance will move east-northeastward across the central Rockies. A residual frontal zone draped generally south-north abutting the higher terrain is providing a focus for richer moisture east of this boundary over the High Plains. Surface dewpoints will likely range from the mid 50s to the lower 60s across much of the Slight Risk. A belt of slightly stronger westerly upper flow is forecast across the central High Plains which will act to elongate hodographs. Additionally, a plume of steep 700-500 mb lapse rates (7.5 to 9 deg C/km) will contribute to MLCAPE 2000-3000 by mid-late afternoon. The aforementioned low-amplitude disturbance over the central Rockies coupled with low-level upslope flow/orographic effects will result in initial thunderstorm development over the high terrain and the Cheyenne Ridge. The best overlap between buoyancy and shear is expected from western SD into northeast CO/WY/NE Panhandle border region. Model ensemble data suggest a few favored corridors for severe may result. The most notable area may focus near the Cheyenne Ridge and adjacent northeast CO where supercell potential appears greatest. Large to very large hail and a tornado or two are possible with this activity before gradually transitioning to primarily a risk for severe gusts. One other area of interest is across northwest SD, where an MCV moving slowly into the region could result in a focused area of thunderstorms. Increased low-level convergence and low-level vertical shear near this MCV could lead to a greater threat for all severe hazards, including large hail and perhaps a brief tornado or two. ...Carolinas into Georgia-Alabama-Mississippi... A seasonably moist airmass was sampled by 12 UTC area raobs this morning (near 16 g/kg lowest 100-mb mean mixing ratio). Visible-satellite imagery shows extensive low cloud cover across central and eastern NC near and behind the wind shift/cold front. Farther west, initial cumulus field development is noted over the southern Appalachians where strong heating is occurring and farther south/southeast over the Piedmont and to the coastal plain. As temperatures continue to warm through early afternoon, erosion of convective inhibition will result in scattered storms favoring the higher terrain and eventually near the wind shift. High PW (2 inches or greater) and diurnally steepened surface to 1.5 km lapse rates will support a risk for wet microbursts with the more intense water-loaded downdrafts. Localized gusts 50-65 mph are possible and scattered pockets of wind damage may result. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025 Valid 012000Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the High Plains this afternoon and evening. Large to very large hail, a couple of tornadoes, and severe gusts are possible. ...20z Update... The forecast largely remains on track. The primary update was to introduce 5% tornado probabilities across portions of northwest SD ahead of a pronounced MCV where initial stages of thunderstorm development are noted in recent GOES/lightning data. Visible imagery shows slowly building cumulus within the southeasterly flow regime ahead of the MCV as temperatures warm into the mid/upper 70s. Forecast soundings suggest this is adequate for surface-based convection, and depict enlarging hodographs later this evening as the nocturnal jet strengthens. While localized, this environment may be somewhat more favorable for tornadoes compared to adjacent portions of SD. Elsewhere, minimal changes are required. 5% wind probabilities were amended slightly across portions of the Carolinas to better reflect recent thunderstorm development/trends. See the previous discussion below as well as MCDs #1860-1862 for additional details. ..Moore.. 08/01/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025/ ...High Plains... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a few disturbances undercutting an upper ridge currently over the High Plains/Alberta. An MCV is slowly moving eastward near the MT/WY/SD/ND border, a more pronounced upper trough will remain over the northern Rockies and adjacent high plains of MT, and a more subtle disturbance will move east-northeastward across the central Rockies. A residual frontal zone draped generally south-north abutting the higher terrain is providing a focus for richer moisture east of this boundary over the High Plains. Surface dewpoints will likely range from the mid 50s to the lower 60s across much of the Slight Risk. A belt of slightly stronger westerly upper flow is forecast across the central High Plains which will act to elongate hodographs. Additionally, a plume of steep 700-500 mb lapse rates (7.5 to 9 deg C/km) will contribute to MLCAPE 2000-3000 by mid-late afternoon. The aforementioned low-amplitude disturbance over the central Rockies coupled with low-level upslope flow/orographic effects will result in initial thunderstorm development over the high terrain and the Cheyenne Ridge. The best overlap between buoyancy and shear is expected from western SD into northeast CO/WY/NE Panhandle border region. Model ensemble data suggest a few favored corridors for severe may result. The most notable area may focus near the Cheyenne Ridge and adjacent northeast CO where supercell potential appears greatest. Large to very large hail and a tornado or two are possible with this activity before gradually transitioning to primarily a risk for severe gusts. One other area of interest is across northwest SD, where an MCV moving slowly into the region could result in a focused area of thunderstorms. Increased low-level convergence and low-level vertical shear near this MCV could lead to a greater threat for all severe hazards, including large hail and perhaps a brief tornado or two. ...Carolinas into Georgia-Alabama-Mississippi... A seasonably moist airmass was sampled by 12 UTC area raobs this morning (near 16 g/kg lowest 100-mb mean mixing ratio). Visible-satellite imagery shows extensive low cloud cover across central and eastern NC near and behind the wind shift/cold front. Farther west, initial cumulus field development is noted over the southern Appalachians where strong heating is occurring and farther south/southeast over the Piedmont and to the coastal plain. As temperatures continue to warm through early afternoon, erosion of convective inhibition will result in scattered storms favoring the higher terrain and eventually near the wind shift. High PW (2 inches or greater) and diurnally steepened surface to 1.5 km lapse rates will support a risk for wet microbursts with the more intense water-loaded downdrafts. Localized gusts 50-65 mph are possible and scattered pockets of wind damage may result. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025 Valid 012000Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the High Plains this afternoon and evening. Large to very large hail, a couple of tornadoes, and severe gusts are possible. ...20z Update... The forecast largely remains on track. The primary update was to introduce 5% tornado probabilities across portions of northwest SD ahead of a pronounced MCV where initial stages of thunderstorm development are noted in recent GOES/lightning data. Visible imagery shows slowly building cumulus within the southeasterly flow regime ahead of the MCV as temperatures warm into the mid/upper 70s. Forecast soundings suggest this is adequate for surface-based convection, and depict enlarging hodographs later this evening as the nocturnal jet strengthens. While localized, this environment may be somewhat more favorable for tornadoes compared to adjacent portions of SD. Elsewhere, minimal changes are required. 5% wind probabilities were amended slightly across portions of the Carolinas to better reflect recent thunderstorm development/trends. See the previous discussion below as well as MCDs #1860-1862 for additional details. ..Moore.. 08/01/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025/ ...High Plains... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a few disturbances undercutting an upper ridge currently over the High Plains/Alberta. An MCV is slowly moving eastward near the MT/WY/SD/ND border, a more pronounced upper trough will remain over the northern Rockies and adjacent high plains of MT, and a more subtle disturbance will move east-northeastward across the central Rockies. A residual frontal zone draped generally south-north abutting the higher terrain is providing a focus for richer moisture east of this boundary over the High Plains. Surface dewpoints will likely range from the mid 50s to the lower 60s across much of the Slight Risk. A belt of slightly stronger westerly upper flow is forecast across the central High Plains which will act to elongate hodographs. Additionally, a plume of steep 700-500 mb lapse rates (7.5 to 9 deg C/km) will contribute to MLCAPE 2000-3000 by mid-late afternoon. The aforementioned low-amplitude disturbance over the central Rockies coupled with low-level upslope flow/orographic effects will result in initial thunderstorm development over the high terrain and the Cheyenne Ridge. The best overlap between buoyancy and shear is expected from western SD into northeast CO/WY/NE Panhandle border region. Model ensemble data suggest a few favored corridors for severe may result. The most notable area may focus near the Cheyenne Ridge and adjacent northeast CO where supercell potential appears greatest. Large to very large hail and a tornado or two are possible with this activity before gradually transitioning to primarily a risk for severe gusts. One other area of interest is across northwest SD, where an MCV moving slowly into the region could result in a focused area of thunderstorms. Increased low-level convergence and low-level vertical shear near this MCV could lead to a greater threat for all severe hazards, including large hail and perhaps a brief tornado or two. ...Carolinas into Georgia-Alabama-Mississippi... A seasonably moist airmass was sampled by 12 UTC area raobs this morning (near 16 g/kg lowest 100-mb mean mixing ratio). Visible-satellite imagery shows extensive low cloud cover across central and eastern NC near and behind the wind shift/cold front. Farther west, initial cumulus field development is noted over the southern Appalachians where strong heating is occurring and farther south/southeast over the Piedmont and to the coastal plain. As temperatures continue to warm through early afternoon, erosion of convective inhibition will result in scattered storms favoring the higher terrain and eventually near the wind shift. High PW (2 inches or greater) and diurnally steepened surface to 1.5 km lapse rates will support a risk for wet microbursts with the more intense water-loaded downdrafts. Localized gusts 50-65 mph are possible and scattered pockets of wind damage may result. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025 Valid 012000Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the High Plains this afternoon and evening. Large to very large hail, a couple of tornadoes, and severe gusts are possible. ...20z Update... The forecast largely remains on track. The primary update was to introduce 5% tornado probabilities across portions of northwest SD ahead of a pronounced MCV where initial stages of thunderstorm development are noted in recent GOES/lightning data. Visible imagery shows slowly building cumulus within the southeasterly flow regime ahead of the MCV as temperatures warm into the mid/upper 70s. Forecast soundings suggest this is adequate for surface-based convection, and depict enlarging hodographs later this evening as the nocturnal jet strengthens. While localized, this environment may be somewhat more favorable for tornadoes compared to adjacent portions of SD. Elsewhere, minimal changes are required. 5% wind probabilities were amended slightly across portions of the Carolinas to better reflect recent thunderstorm development/trends. See the previous discussion below as well as MCDs #1860-1862 for additional details. ..Moore.. 08/01/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025/ ...High Plains... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a few disturbances undercutting an upper ridge currently over the High Plains/Alberta. An MCV is slowly moving eastward near the MT/WY/SD/ND border, a more pronounced upper trough will remain over the northern Rockies and adjacent high plains of MT, and a more subtle disturbance will move east-northeastward across the central Rockies. A residual frontal zone draped generally south-north abutting the higher terrain is providing a focus for richer moisture east of this boundary over the High Plains. Surface dewpoints will likely range from the mid 50s to the lower 60s across much of the Slight Risk. A belt of slightly stronger westerly upper flow is forecast across the central High Plains which will act to elongate hodographs. Additionally, a plume of steep 700-500 mb lapse rates (7.5 to 9 deg C/km) will contribute to MLCAPE 2000-3000 by mid-late afternoon. The aforementioned low-amplitude disturbance over the central Rockies coupled with low-level upslope flow/orographic effects will result in initial thunderstorm development over the high terrain and the Cheyenne Ridge. The best overlap between buoyancy and shear is expected from western SD into northeast CO/WY/NE Panhandle border region. Model ensemble data suggest a few favored corridors for severe may result. The most notable area may focus near the Cheyenne Ridge and adjacent northeast CO where supercell potential appears greatest. Large to very large hail and a tornado or two are possible with this activity before gradually transitioning to primarily a risk for severe gusts. One other area of interest is across northwest SD, where an MCV moving slowly into the region could result in a focused area of thunderstorms. Increased low-level convergence and low-level vertical shear near this MCV could lead to a greater threat for all severe hazards, including large hail and perhaps a brief tornado or two. ...Carolinas into Georgia-Alabama-Mississippi... A seasonably moist airmass was sampled by 12 UTC area raobs this morning (near 16 g/kg lowest 100-mb mean mixing ratio). Visible-satellite imagery shows extensive low cloud cover across central and eastern NC near and behind the wind shift/cold front. Farther west, initial cumulus field development is noted over the southern Appalachians where strong heating is occurring and farther south/southeast over the Piedmont and to the coastal plain. As temperatures continue to warm through early afternoon, erosion of convective inhibition will result in scattered storms favoring the higher terrain and eventually near the wind shift. High PW (2 inches or greater) and diurnally steepened surface to 1.5 km lapse rates will support a risk for wet microbursts with the more intense water-loaded downdrafts. Localized gusts 50-65 mph are possible and scattered pockets of wind damage may result. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025 Valid 012000Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the High Plains this afternoon and evening. Large to very large hail, a couple of tornadoes, and severe gusts are possible. ...20z Update... The forecast largely remains on track. The primary update was to introduce 5% tornado probabilities across portions of northwest SD ahead of a pronounced MCV where initial stages of thunderstorm development are noted in recent GOES/lightning data. Visible imagery shows slowly building cumulus within the southeasterly flow regime ahead of the MCV as temperatures warm into the mid/upper 70s. Forecast soundings suggest this is adequate for surface-based convection, and depict enlarging hodographs later this evening as the nocturnal jet strengthens. While localized, this environment may be somewhat more favorable for tornadoes compared to adjacent portions of SD. Elsewhere, minimal changes are required. 5% wind probabilities were amended slightly across portions of the Carolinas to better reflect recent thunderstorm development/trends. See the previous discussion below as well as MCDs #1860-1862 for additional details. ..Moore.. 08/01/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025/ ...High Plains... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a few disturbances undercutting an upper ridge currently over the High Plains/Alberta. An MCV is slowly moving eastward near the MT/WY/SD/ND border, a more pronounced upper trough will remain over the northern Rockies and adjacent high plains of MT, and a more subtle disturbance will move east-northeastward across the central Rockies. A residual frontal zone draped generally south-north abutting the higher terrain is providing a focus for richer moisture east of this boundary over the High Plains. Surface dewpoints will likely range from the mid 50s to the lower 60s across much of the Slight Risk. A belt of slightly stronger westerly upper flow is forecast across the central High Plains which will act to elongate hodographs. Additionally, a plume of steep 700-500 mb lapse rates (7.5 to 9 deg C/km) will contribute to MLCAPE 2000-3000 by mid-late afternoon. The aforementioned low-amplitude disturbance over the central Rockies coupled with low-level upslope flow/orographic effects will result in initial thunderstorm development over the high terrain and the Cheyenne Ridge. The best overlap between buoyancy and shear is expected from western SD into northeast CO/WY/NE Panhandle border region. Model ensemble data suggest a few favored corridors for severe may result. The most notable area may focus near the Cheyenne Ridge and adjacent northeast CO where supercell potential appears greatest. Large to very large hail and a tornado or two are possible with this activity before gradually transitioning to primarily a risk for severe gusts. One other area of interest is across northwest SD, where an MCV moving slowly into the region could result in a focused area of thunderstorms. Increased low-level convergence and low-level vertical shear near this MCV could lead to a greater threat for all severe hazards, including large hail and perhaps a brief tornado or two. ...Carolinas into Georgia-Alabama-Mississippi... A seasonably moist airmass was sampled by 12 UTC area raobs this morning (near 16 g/kg lowest 100-mb mean mixing ratio). Visible-satellite imagery shows extensive low cloud cover across central and eastern NC near and behind the wind shift/cold front. Farther west, initial cumulus field development is noted over the southern Appalachians where strong heating is occurring and farther south/southeast over the Piedmont and to the coastal plain. As temperatures continue to warm through early afternoon, erosion of convective inhibition will result in scattered storms favoring the higher terrain and eventually near the wind shift. High PW (2 inches or greater) and diurnally steepened surface to 1.5 km lapse rates will support a risk for wet microbursts with the more intense water-loaded downdrafts. Localized gusts 50-65 mph are possible and scattered pockets of wind damage may result. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025 Valid 012000Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the High Plains this afternoon and evening. Large to very large hail, a couple of tornadoes, and severe gusts are possible. ...20z Update... The forecast largely remains on track. The primary update was to introduce 5% tornado probabilities across portions of northwest SD ahead of a pronounced MCV where initial stages of thunderstorm development are noted in recent GOES/lightning data. Visible imagery shows slowly building cumulus within the southeasterly flow regime ahead of the MCV as temperatures warm into the mid/upper 70s. Forecast soundings suggest this is adequate for surface-based convection, and depict enlarging hodographs later this evening as the nocturnal jet strengthens. While localized, this environment may be somewhat more favorable for tornadoes compared to adjacent portions of SD. Elsewhere, minimal changes are required. 5% wind probabilities were amended slightly across portions of the Carolinas to better reflect recent thunderstorm development/trends. See the previous discussion below as well as MCDs #1860-1862 for additional details. ..Moore.. 08/01/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025/ ...High Plains... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a few disturbances undercutting an upper ridge currently over the High Plains/Alberta. An MCV is slowly moving eastward near the MT/WY/SD/ND border, a more pronounced upper trough will remain over the northern Rockies and adjacent high plains of MT, and a more subtle disturbance will move east-northeastward across the central Rockies. A residual frontal zone draped generally south-north abutting the higher terrain is providing a focus for richer moisture east of this boundary over the High Plains. Surface dewpoints will likely range from the mid 50s to the lower 60s across much of the Slight Risk. A belt of slightly stronger westerly upper flow is forecast across the central High Plains which will act to elongate hodographs. Additionally, a plume of steep 700-500 mb lapse rates (7.5 to 9 deg C/km) will contribute to MLCAPE 2000-3000 by mid-late afternoon. The aforementioned low-amplitude disturbance over the central Rockies coupled with low-level upslope flow/orographic effects will result in initial thunderstorm development over the high terrain and the Cheyenne Ridge. The best overlap between buoyancy and shear is expected from western SD into northeast CO/WY/NE Panhandle border region. Model ensemble data suggest a few favored corridors for severe may result. The most notable area may focus near the Cheyenne Ridge and adjacent northeast CO where supercell potential appears greatest. Large to very large hail and a tornado or two are possible with this activity before gradually transitioning to primarily a risk for severe gusts. One other area of interest is across northwest SD, where an MCV moving slowly into the region could result in a focused area of thunderstorms. Increased low-level convergence and low-level vertical shear near this MCV could lead to a greater threat for all severe hazards, including large hail and perhaps a brief tornado or two. ...Carolinas into Georgia-Alabama-Mississippi... A seasonably moist airmass was sampled by 12 UTC area raobs this morning (near 16 g/kg lowest 100-mb mean mixing ratio). Visible-satellite imagery shows extensive low cloud cover across central and eastern NC near and behind the wind shift/cold front. Farther west, initial cumulus field development is noted over the southern Appalachians where strong heating is occurring and farther south/southeast over the Piedmont and to the coastal plain. As temperatures continue to warm through early afternoon, erosion of convective inhibition will result in scattered storms favoring the higher terrain and eventually near the wind shift. High PW (2 inches or greater) and diurnally steepened surface to 1.5 km lapse rates will support a risk for wet microbursts with the more intense water-loaded downdrafts. Localized gusts 50-65 mph are possible and scattered pockets of wind damage may result. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025 Valid 012000Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the High Plains this afternoon and evening. Large to very large hail, a couple of tornadoes, and severe gusts are possible. ...20z Update... The forecast largely remains on track. The primary update was to introduce 5% tornado probabilities across portions of northwest SD ahead of a pronounced MCV where initial stages of thunderstorm development are noted in recent GOES/lightning data. Visible imagery shows slowly building cumulus within the southeasterly flow regime ahead of the MCV as temperatures warm into the mid/upper 70s. Forecast soundings suggest this is adequate for surface-based convection, and depict enlarging hodographs later this evening as the nocturnal jet strengthens. While localized, this environment may be somewhat more favorable for tornadoes compared to adjacent portions of SD. Elsewhere, minimal changes are required. 5% wind probabilities were amended slightly across portions of the Carolinas to better reflect recent thunderstorm development/trends. See the previous discussion below as well as MCDs #1860-1862 for additional details. ..Moore.. 08/01/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025/ ...High Plains... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a few disturbances undercutting an upper ridge currently over the High Plains/Alberta. An MCV is slowly moving eastward near the MT/WY/SD/ND border, a more pronounced upper trough will remain over the northern Rockies and adjacent high plains of MT, and a more subtle disturbance will move east-northeastward across the central Rockies. A residual frontal zone draped generally south-north abutting the higher terrain is providing a focus for richer moisture east of this boundary over the High Plains. Surface dewpoints will likely range from the mid 50s to the lower 60s across much of the Slight Risk. A belt of slightly stronger westerly upper flow is forecast across the central High Plains which will act to elongate hodographs. Additionally, a plume of steep 700-500 mb lapse rates (7.5 to 9 deg C/km) will contribute to MLCAPE 2000-3000 by mid-late afternoon. The aforementioned low-amplitude disturbance over the central Rockies coupled with low-level upslope flow/orographic effects will result in initial thunderstorm development over the high terrain and the Cheyenne Ridge. The best overlap between buoyancy and shear is expected from western SD into northeast CO/WY/NE Panhandle border region. Model ensemble data suggest a few favored corridors for severe may result. The most notable area may focus near the Cheyenne Ridge and adjacent northeast CO where supercell potential appears greatest. Large to very large hail and a tornado or two are possible with this activity before gradually transitioning to primarily a risk for severe gusts. One other area of interest is across northwest SD, where an MCV moving slowly into the region could result in a focused area of thunderstorms. Increased low-level convergence and low-level vertical shear near this MCV could lead to a greater threat for all severe hazards, including large hail and perhaps a brief tornado or two. ...Carolinas into Georgia-Alabama-Mississippi... A seasonably moist airmass was sampled by 12 UTC area raobs this morning (near 16 g/kg lowest 100-mb mean mixing ratio). Visible-satellite imagery shows extensive low cloud cover across central and eastern NC near and behind the wind shift/cold front. Farther west, initial cumulus field development is noted over the southern Appalachians where strong heating is occurring and farther south/southeast over the Piedmont and to the coastal plain. As temperatures continue to warm through early afternoon, erosion of convective inhibition will result in scattered storms favoring the higher terrain and eventually near the wind shift. High PW (2 inches or greater) and diurnally steepened surface to 1.5 km lapse rates will support a risk for wet microbursts with the more intense water-loaded downdrafts. Localized gusts 50-65 mph are possible and scattered pockets of wind damage may result. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025 Valid 012000Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the High Plains this afternoon and evening. Large to very large hail, a couple of tornadoes, and severe gusts are possible. ...20z Update... The forecast largely remains on track. The primary update was to introduce 5% tornado probabilities across portions of northwest SD ahead of a pronounced MCV where initial stages of thunderstorm development are noted in recent GOES/lightning data. Visible imagery shows slowly building cumulus within the southeasterly flow regime ahead of the MCV as temperatures warm into the mid/upper 70s. Forecast soundings suggest this is adequate for surface-based convection, and depict enlarging hodographs later this evening as the nocturnal jet strengthens. While localized, this environment may be somewhat more favorable for tornadoes compared to adjacent portions of SD. Elsewhere, minimal changes are required. 5% wind probabilities were amended slightly across portions of the Carolinas to better reflect recent thunderstorm development/trends. See the previous discussion below as well as MCDs #1860-1862 for additional details. ..Moore.. 08/01/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025/ ...High Plains... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a few disturbances undercutting an upper ridge currently over the High Plains/Alberta. An MCV is slowly moving eastward near the MT/WY/SD/ND border, a more pronounced upper trough will remain over the northern Rockies and adjacent high plains of MT, and a more subtle disturbance will move east-northeastward across the central Rockies. A residual frontal zone draped generally south-north abutting the higher terrain is providing a focus for richer moisture east of this boundary over the High Plains. Surface dewpoints will likely range from the mid 50s to the lower 60s across much of the Slight Risk. A belt of slightly stronger westerly upper flow is forecast across the central High Plains which will act to elongate hodographs. Additionally, a plume of steep 700-500 mb lapse rates (7.5 to 9 deg C/km) will contribute to MLCAPE 2000-3000 by mid-late afternoon. The aforementioned low-amplitude disturbance over the central Rockies coupled with low-level upslope flow/orographic effects will result in initial thunderstorm development over the high terrain and the Cheyenne Ridge. The best overlap between buoyancy and shear is expected from western SD into northeast CO/WY/NE Panhandle border region. Model ensemble data suggest a few favored corridors for severe may result. The most notable area may focus near the Cheyenne Ridge and adjacent northeast CO where supercell potential appears greatest. Large to very large hail and a tornado or two are possible with this activity before gradually transitioning to primarily a risk for severe gusts. One other area of interest is across northwest SD, where an MCV moving slowly into the region could result in a focused area of thunderstorms. Increased low-level convergence and low-level vertical shear near this MCV could lead to a greater threat for all severe hazards, including large hail and perhaps a brief tornado or two. ...Carolinas into Georgia-Alabama-Mississippi... A seasonably moist airmass was sampled by 12 UTC area raobs this morning (near 16 g/kg lowest 100-mb mean mixing ratio). Visible-satellite imagery shows extensive low cloud cover across central and eastern NC near and behind the wind shift/cold front. Farther west, initial cumulus field development is noted over the southern Appalachians where strong heating is occurring and farther south/southeast over the Piedmont and to the coastal plain. As temperatures continue to warm through early afternoon, erosion of convective inhibition will result in scattered storms favoring the higher terrain and eventually near the wind shift. High PW (2 inches or greater) and diurnally steepened surface to 1.5 km lapse rates will support a risk for wet microbursts with the more intense water-loaded downdrafts. Localized gusts 50-65 mph are possible and scattered pockets of wind damage may result. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025 Valid 012000Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the High Plains this afternoon and evening. Large to very large hail, a couple of tornadoes, and severe gusts are possible. ...20z Update... The forecast largely remains on track. The primary update was to introduce 5% tornado probabilities across portions of northwest SD ahead of a pronounced MCV where initial stages of thunderstorm development are noted in recent GOES/lightning data. Visible imagery shows slowly building cumulus within the southeasterly flow regime ahead of the MCV as temperatures warm into the mid/upper 70s. Forecast soundings suggest this is adequate for surface-based convection, and depict enlarging hodographs later this evening as the nocturnal jet strengthens. While localized, this environment may be somewhat more favorable for tornadoes compared to adjacent portions of SD. Elsewhere, minimal changes are required. 5% wind probabilities were amended slightly across portions of the Carolinas to better reflect recent thunderstorm development/trends. See the previous discussion below as well as MCDs #1860-1862 for additional details. ..Moore.. 08/01/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025/ ...High Plains... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a few disturbances undercutting an upper ridge currently over the High Plains/Alberta. An MCV is slowly moving eastward near the MT/WY/SD/ND border, a more pronounced upper trough will remain over the northern Rockies and adjacent high plains of MT, and a more subtle disturbance will move east-northeastward across the central Rockies. A residual frontal zone draped generally south-north abutting the higher terrain is providing a focus for richer moisture east of this boundary over the High Plains. Surface dewpoints will likely range from the mid 50s to the lower 60s across much of the Slight Risk. A belt of slightly stronger westerly upper flow is forecast across the central High Plains which will act to elongate hodographs. Additionally, a plume of steep 700-500 mb lapse rates (7.5 to 9 deg C/km) will contribute to MLCAPE 2000-3000 by mid-late afternoon. The aforementioned low-amplitude disturbance over the central Rockies coupled with low-level upslope flow/orographic effects will result in initial thunderstorm development over the high terrain and the Cheyenne Ridge. The best overlap between buoyancy and shear is expected from western SD into northeast CO/WY/NE Panhandle border region. Model ensemble data suggest a few favored corridors for severe may result. The most notable area may focus near the Cheyenne Ridge and adjacent northeast CO where supercell potential appears greatest. Large to very large hail and a tornado or two are possible with this activity before gradually transitioning to primarily a risk for severe gusts. One other area of interest is across northwest SD, where an MCV moving slowly into the region could result in a focused area of thunderstorms. Increased low-level convergence and low-level vertical shear near this MCV could lead to a greater threat for all severe hazards, including large hail and perhaps a brief tornado or two. ...Carolinas into Georgia-Alabama-Mississippi... A seasonably moist airmass was sampled by 12 UTC area raobs this morning (near 16 g/kg lowest 100-mb mean mixing ratio). Visible-satellite imagery shows extensive low cloud cover across central and eastern NC near and behind the wind shift/cold front. Farther west, initial cumulus field development is noted over the southern Appalachians where strong heating is occurring and farther south/southeast over the Piedmont and to the coastal plain. As temperatures continue to warm through early afternoon, erosion of convective inhibition will result in scattered storms favoring the higher terrain and eventually near the wind shift. High PW (2 inches or greater) and diurnally steepened surface to 1.5 km lapse rates will support a risk for wet microbursts with the more intense water-loaded downdrafts. Localized gusts 50-65 mph are possible and scattered pockets of wind damage may result. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025 Valid 012000Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the High Plains this afternoon and evening. Large to very large hail, a couple of tornadoes, and severe gusts are possible. ...20z Update... The forecast largely remains on track. The primary update was to introduce 5% tornado probabilities across portions of northwest SD ahead of a pronounced MCV where initial stages of thunderstorm development are noted in recent GOES/lightning data. Visible imagery shows slowly building cumulus within the southeasterly flow regime ahead of the MCV as temperatures warm into the mid/upper 70s. Forecast soundings suggest this is adequate for surface-based convection, and depict enlarging hodographs later this evening as the nocturnal jet strengthens. While localized, this environment may be somewhat more favorable for tornadoes compared to adjacent portions of SD. Elsewhere, minimal changes are required. 5% wind probabilities were amended slightly across portions of the Carolinas to better reflect recent thunderstorm development/trends. See the previous discussion below as well as MCDs #1860-1862 for additional details. ..Moore.. 08/01/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025/ ...High Plains... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a few disturbances undercutting an upper ridge currently over the High Plains/Alberta. An MCV is slowly moving eastward near the MT/WY/SD/ND border, a more pronounced upper trough will remain over the northern Rockies and adjacent high plains of MT, and a more subtle disturbance will move east-northeastward across the central Rockies. A residual frontal zone draped generally south-north abutting the higher terrain is providing a focus for richer moisture east of this boundary over the High Plains. Surface dewpoints will likely range from the mid 50s to the lower 60s across much of the Slight Risk. A belt of slightly stronger westerly upper flow is forecast across the central High Plains which will act to elongate hodographs. Additionally, a plume of steep 700-500 mb lapse rates (7.5 to 9 deg C/km) will contribute to MLCAPE 2000-3000 by mid-late afternoon. The aforementioned low-amplitude disturbance over the central Rockies coupled with low-level upslope flow/orographic effects will result in initial thunderstorm development over the high terrain and the Cheyenne Ridge. The best overlap between buoyancy and shear is expected from western SD into northeast CO/WY/NE Panhandle border region. Model ensemble data suggest a few favored corridors for severe may result. The most notable area may focus near the Cheyenne Ridge and adjacent northeast CO where supercell potential appears greatest. Large to very large hail and a tornado or two are possible with this activity before gradually transitioning to primarily a risk for severe gusts. One other area of interest is across northwest SD, where an MCV moving slowly into the region could result in a focused area of thunderstorms. Increased low-level convergence and low-level vertical shear near this MCV could lead to a greater threat for all severe hazards, including large hail and perhaps a brief tornado or two. ...Carolinas into Georgia-Alabama-Mississippi... A seasonably moist airmass was sampled by 12 UTC area raobs this morning (near 16 g/kg lowest 100-mb mean mixing ratio). Visible-satellite imagery shows extensive low cloud cover across central and eastern NC near and behind the wind shift/cold front. Farther west, initial cumulus field development is noted over the southern Appalachians where strong heating is occurring and farther south/southeast over the Piedmont and to the coastal plain. As temperatures continue to warm through early afternoon, erosion of convective inhibition will result in scattered storms favoring the higher terrain and eventually near the wind shift. High PW (2 inches or greater) and diurnally steepened surface to 1.5 km lapse rates will support a risk for wet microbursts with the more intense water-loaded downdrafts. Localized gusts 50-65 mph are possible and scattered pockets of wind damage may result. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025 Valid 012000Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the High Plains this afternoon and evening. Large to very large hail, a couple of tornadoes, and severe gusts are possible. ...20z Update... The forecast largely remains on track. The primary update was to introduce 5% tornado probabilities across portions of northwest SD ahead of a pronounced MCV where initial stages of thunderstorm development are noted in recent GOES/lightning data. Visible imagery shows slowly building cumulus within the southeasterly flow regime ahead of the MCV as temperatures warm into the mid/upper 70s. Forecast soundings suggest this is adequate for surface-based convection, and depict enlarging hodographs later this evening as the nocturnal jet strengthens. While localized, this environment may be somewhat more favorable for tornadoes compared to adjacent portions of SD. Elsewhere, minimal changes are required. 5% wind probabilities were amended slightly across portions of the Carolinas to better reflect recent thunderstorm development/trends. See the previous discussion below as well as MCDs #1860-1862 for additional details. ..Moore.. 08/01/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025/ ...High Plains... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a few disturbances undercutting an upper ridge currently over the High Plains/Alberta. An MCV is slowly moving eastward near the MT/WY/SD/ND border, a more pronounced upper trough will remain over the northern Rockies and adjacent high plains of MT, and a more subtle disturbance will move east-northeastward across the central Rockies. A residual frontal zone draped generally south-north abutting the higher terrain is providing a focus for richer moisture east of this boundary over the High Plains. Surface dewpoints will likely range from the mid 50s to the lower 60s across much of the Slight Risk. A belt of slightly stronger westerly upper flow is forecast across the central High Plains which will act to elongate hodographs. Additionally, a plume of steep 700-500 mb lapse rates (7.5 to 9 deg C/km) will contribute to MLCAPE 2000-3000 by mid-late afternoon. The aforementioned low-amplitude disturbance over the central Rockies coupled with low-level upslope flow/orographic effects will result in initial thunderstorm development over the high terrain and the Cheyenne Ridge. The best overlap between buoyancy and shear is expected from western SD into northeast CO/WY/NE Panhandle border region. Model ensemble data suggest a few favored corridors for severe may result. The most notable area may focus near the Cheyenne Ridge and adjacent northeast CO where supercell potential appears greatest. Large to very large hail and a tornado or two are possible with this activity before gradually transitioning to primarily a risk for severe gusts. One other area of interest is across northwest SD, where an MCV moving slowly into the region could result in a focused area of thunderstorms. Increased low-level convergence and low-level vertical shear near this MCV could lead to a greater threat for all severe hazards, including large hail and perhaps a brief tornado or two. ...Carolinas into Georgia-Alabama-Mississippi... A seasonably moist airmass was sampled by 12 UTC area raobs this morning (near 16 g/kg lowest 100-mb mean mixing ratio). Visible-satellite imagery shows extensive low cloud cover across central and eastern NC near and behind the wind shift/cold front. Farther west, initial cumulus field development is noted over the southern Appalachians where strong heating is occurring and farther south/southeast over the Piedmont and to the coastal plain. As temperatures continue to warm through early afternoon, erosion of convective inhibition will result in scattered storms favoring the higher terrain and eventually near the wind shift. High PW (2 inches or greater) and diurnally steepened surface to 1.5 km lapse rates will support a risk for wet microbursts with the more intense water-loaded downdrafts. Localized gusts 50-65 mph are possible and scattered pockets of wind damage may result. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025 Valid 012000Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the High Plains this afternoon and evening. Large to very large hail, a couple of tornadoes, and severe gusts are possible. ...20z Update... The forecast largely remains on track. The primary update was to introduce 5% tornado probabilities across portions of northwest SD ahead of a pronounced MCV where initial stages of thunderstorm development are noted in recent GOES/lightning data. Visible imagery shows slowly building cumulus within the southeasterly flow regime ahead of the MCV as temperatures warm into the mid/upper 70s. Forecast soundings suggest this is adequate for surface-based convection, and depict enlarging hodographs later this evening as the nocturnal jet strengthens. While localized, this environment may be somewhat more favorable for tornadoes compared to adjacent portions of SD. Elsewhere, minimal changes are required. 5% wind probabilities were amended slightly across portions of the Carolinas to better reflect recent thunderstorm development/trends. See the previous discussion below as well as MCDs #1860-1862 for additional details. ..Moore.. 08/01/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025/ ...High Plains... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a few disturbances undercutting an upper ridge currently over the High Plains/Alberta. An MCV is slowly moving eastward near the MT/WY/SD/ND border, a more pronounced upper trough will remain over the northern Rockies and adjacent high plains of MT, and a more subtle disturbance will move east-northeastward across the central Rockies. A residual frontal zone draped generally south-north abutting the higher terrain is providing a focus for richer moisture east of this boundary over the High Plains. Surface dewpoints will likely range from the mid 50s to the lower 60s across much of the Slight Risk. A belt of slightly stronger westerly upper flow is forecast across the central High Plains which will act to elongate hodographs. Additionally, a plume of steep 700-500 mb lapse rates (7.5 to 9 deg C/km) will contribute to MLCAPE 2000-3000 by mid-late afternoon. The aforementioned low-amplitude disturbance over the central Rockies coupled with low-level upslope flow/orographic effects will result in initial thunderstorm development over the high terrain and the Cheyenne Ridge. The best overlap between buoyancy and shear is expected from western SD into northeast CO/WY/NE Panhandle border region. Model ensemble data suggest a few favored corridors for severe may result. The most notable area may focus near the Cheyenne Ridge and adjacent northeast CO where supercell potential appears greatest. Large to very large hail and a tornado or two are possible with this activity before gradually transitioning to primarily a risk for severe gusts. One other area of interest is across northwest SD, where an MCV moving slowly into the region could result in a focused area of thunderstorms. Increased low-level convergence and low-level vertical shear near this MCV could lead to a greater threat for all severe hazards, including large hail and perhaps a brief tornado or two. ...Carolinas into Georgia-Alabama-Mississippi... A seasonably moist airmass was sampled by 12 UTC area raobs this morning (near 16 g/kg lowest 100-mb mean mixing ratio). Visible-satellite imagery shows extensive low cloud cover across central and eastern NC near and behind the wind shift/cold front. Farther west, initial cumulus field development is noted over the southern Appalachians where strong heating is occurring and farther south/southeast over the Piedmont and to the coastal plain. As temperatures continue to warm through early afternoon, erosion of convective inhibition will result in scattered storms favoring the higher terrain and eventually near the wind shift. High PW (2 inches or greater) and diurnally steepened surface to 1.5 km lapse rates will support a risk for wet microbursts with the more intense water-loaded downdrafts. Localized gusts 50-65 mph are possible and scattered pockets of wind damage may result. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025 Valid 012000Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the High Plains this afternoon and evening. Large to very large hail, a couple of tornadoes, and severe gusts are possible. ...20z Update... The forecast largely remains on track. The primary update was to introduce 5% tornado probabilities across portions of northwest SD ahead of a pronounced MCV where initial stages of thunderstorm development are noted in recent GOES/lightning data. Visible imagery shows slowly building cumulus within the southeasterly flow regime ahead of the MCV as temperatures warm into the mid/upper 70s. Forecast soundings suggest this is adequate for surface-based convection, and depict enlarging hodographs later this evening as the nocturnal jet strengthens. While localized, this environment may be somewhat more favorable for tornadoes compared to adjacent portions of SD. Elsewhere, minimal changes are required. 5% wind probabilities were amended slightly across portions of the Carolinas to better reflect recent thunderstorm development/trends. See the previous discussion below as well as MCDs #1860-1862 for additional details. ..Moore.. 08/01/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025/ ...High Plains... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a few disturbances undercutting an upper ridge currently over the High Plains/Alberta. An MCV is slowly moving eastward near the MT/WY/SD/ND border, a more pronounced upper trough will remain over the northern Rockies and adjacent high plains of MT, and a more subtle disturbance will move east-northeastward across the central Rockies. A residual frontal zone draped generally south-north abutting the higher terrain is providing a focus for richer moisture east of this boundary over the High Plains. Surface dewpoints will likely range from the mid 50s to the lower 60s across much of the Slight Risk. A belt of slightly stronger westerly upper flow is forecast across the central High Plains which will act to elongate hodographs. Additionally, a plume of steep 700-500 mb lapse rates (7.5 to 9 deg C/km) will contribute to MLCAPE 2000-3000 by mid-late afternoon. The aforementioned low-amplitude disturbance over the central Rockies coupled with low-level upslope flow/orographic effects will result in initial thunderstorm development over the high terrain and the Cheyenne Ridge. The best overlap between buoyancy and shear is expected from western SD into northeast CO/WY/NE Panhandle border region. Model ensemble data suggest a few favored corridors for severe may result. The most notable area may focus near the Cheyenne Ridge and adjacent northeast CO where supercell potential appears greatest. Large to very large hail and a tornado or two are possible with this activity before gradually transitioning to primarily a risk for severe gusts. One other area of interest is across northwest SD, where an MCV moving slowly into the region could result in a focused area of thunderstorms. Increased low-level convergence and low-level vertical shear near this MCV could lead to a greater threat for all severe hazards, including large hail and perhaps a brief tornado or two. ...Carolinas into Georgia-Alabama-Mississippi... A seasonably moist airmass was sampled by 12 UTC area raobs this morning (near 16 g/kg lowest 100-mb mean mixing ratio). Visible-satellite imagery shows extensive low cloud cover across central and eastern NC near and behind the wind shift/cold front. Farther west, initial cumulus field development is noted over the southern Appalachians where strong heating is occurring and farther south/southeast over the Piedmont and to the coastal plain. As temperatures continue to warm through early afternoon, erosion of convective inhibition will result in scattered storms favoring the higher terrain and eventually near the wind shift. High PW (2 inches or greater) and diurnally steepened surface to 1.5 km lapse rates will support a risk for wet microbursts with the more intense water-loaded downdrafts. Localized gusts 50-65 mph are possible and scattered pockets of wind damage may result. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025 Valid 012000Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the High Plains this afternoon and evening. Large to very large hail, a couple of tornadoes, and severe gusts are possible. ...20z Update... The forecast largely remains on track. The primary update was to introduce 5% tornado probabilities across portions of northwest SD ahead of a pronounced MCV where initial stages of thunderstorm development are noted in recent GOES/lightning data. Visible imagery shows slowly building cumulus within the southeasterly flow regime ahead of the MCV as temperatures warm into the mid/upper 70s. Forecast soundings suggest this is adequate for surface-based convection, and depict enlarging hodographs later this evening as the nocturnal jet strengthens. While localized, this environment may be somewhat more favorable for tornadoes compared to adjacent portions of SD. Elsewhere, minimal changes are required. 5% wind probabilities were amended slightly across portions of the Carolinas to better reflect recent thunderstorm development/trends. See the previous discussion below as well as MCDs #1860-1862 for additional details. ..Moore.. 08/01/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025/ ...High Plains... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a few disturbances undercutting an upper ridge currently over the High Plains/Alberta. An MCV is slowly moving eastward near the MT/WY/SD/ND border, a more pronounced upper trough will remain over the northern Rockies and adjacent high plains of MT, and a more subtle disturbance will move east-northeastward across the central Rockies. A residual frontal zone draped generally south-north abutting the higher terrain is providing a focus for richer moisture east of this boundary over the High Plains. Surface dewpoints will likely range from the mid 50s to the lower 60s across much of the Slight Risk. A belt of slightly stronger westerly upper flow is forecast across the central High Plains which will act to elongate hodographs. Additionally, a plume of steep 700-500 mb lapse rates (7.5 to 9 deg C/km) will contribute to MLCAPE 2000-3000 by mid-late afternoon. The aforementioned low-amplitude disturbance over the central Rockies coupled with low-level upslope flow/orographic effects will result in initial thunderstorm development over the high terrain and the Cheyenne Ridge. The best overlap between buoyancy and shear is expected from western SD into northeast CO/WY/NE Panhandle border region. Model ensemble data suggest a few favored corridors for severe may result. The most notable area may focus near the Cheyenne Ridge and adjacent northeast CO where supercell potential appears greatest. Large to very large hail and a tornado or two are possible with this activity before gradually transitioning to primarily a risk for severe gusts. One other area of interest is across northwest SD, where an MCV moving slowly into the region could result in a focused area of thunderstorms. Increased low-level convergence and low-level vertical shear near this MCV could lead to a greater threat for all severe hazards, including large hail and perhaps a brief tornado or two. ...Carolinas into Georgia-Alabama-Mississippi... A seasonably moist airmass was sampled by 12 UTC area raobs this morning (near 16 g/kg lowest 100-mb mean mixing ratio). Visible-satellite imagery shows extensive low cloud cover across central and eastern NC near and behind the wind shift/cold front. Farther west, initial cumulus field development is noted over the southern Appalachians where strong heating is occurring and farther south/southeast over the Piedmont and to the coastal plain. As temperatures continue to warm through early afternoon, erosion of convective inhibition will result in scattered storms favoring the higher terrain and eventually near the wind shift. High PW (2 inches or greater) and diurnally steepened surface to 1.5 km lapse rates will support a risk for wet microbursts with the more intense water-loaded downdrafts. Localized gusts 50-65 mph are possible and scattered pockets of wind damage may result. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025 Valid 012000Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the High Plains this afternoon and evening. Large to very large hail, a couple of tornadoes, and severe gusts are possible. ...20z Update... The forecast largely remains on track. The primary update was to introduce 5% tornado probabilities across portions of northwest SD ahead of a pronounced MCV where initial stages of thunderstorm development are noted in recent GOES/lightning data. Visible imagery shows slowly building cumulus within the southeasterly flow regime ahead of the MCV as temperatures warm into the mid/upper 70s. Forecast soundings suggest this is adequate for surface-based convection, and depict enlarging hodographs later this evening as the nocturnal jet strengthens. While localized, this environment may be somewhat more favorable for tornadoes compared to adjacent portions of SD. Elsewhere, minimal changes are required. 5% wind probabilities were amended slightly across portions of the Carolinas to better reflect recent thunderstorm development/trends. See the previous discussion below as well as MCDs #1860-1862 for additional details. ..Moore.. 08/01/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025/ ...High Plains... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a few disturbances undercutting an upper ridge currently over the High Plains/Alberta. An MCV is slowly moving eastward near the MT/WY/SD/ND border, a more pronounced upper trough will remain over the northern Rockies and adjacent high plains of MT, and a more subtle disturbance will move east-northeastward across the central Rockies. A residual frontal zone draped generally south-north abutting the higher terrain is providing a focus for richer moisture east of this boundary over the High Plains. Surface dewpoints will likely range from the mid 50s to the lower 60s across much of the Slight Risk. A belt of slightly stronger westerly upper flow is forecast across the central High Plains which will act to elongate hodographs. Additionally, a plume of steep 700-500 mb lapse rates (7.5 to 9 deg C/km) will contribute to MLCAPE 2000-3000 by mid-late afternoon. The aforementioned low-amplitude disturbance over the central Rockies coupled with low-level upslope flow/orographic effects will result in initial thunderstorm development over the high terrain and the Cheyenne Ridge. The best overlap between buoyancy and shear is expected from western SD into northeast CO/WY/NE Panhandle border region. Model ensemble data suggest a few favored corridors for severe may result. The most notable area may focus near the Cheyenne Ridge and adjacent northeast CO where supercell potential appears greatest. Large to very large hail and a tornado or two are possible with this activity before gradually transitioning to primarily a risk for severe gusts. One other area of interest is across northwest SD, where an MCV moving slowly into the region could result in a focused area of thunderstorms. Increased low-level convergence and low-level vertical shear near this MCV could lead to a greater threat for all severe hazards, including large hail and perhaps a brief tornado or two. ...Carolinas into Georgia-Alabama-Mississippi... A seasonably moist airmass was sampled by 12 UTC area raobs this morning (near 16 g/kg lowest 100-mb mean mixing ratio). Visible-satellite imagery shows extensive low cloud cover across central and eastern NC near and behind the wind shift/cold front. Farther west, initial cumulus field development is noted over the southern Appalachians where strong heating is occurring and farther south/southeast over the Piedmont and to the coastal plain. As temperatures continue to warm through early afternoon, erosion of convective inhibition will result in scattered storms favoring the higher terrain and eventually near the wind shift. High PW (2 inches or greater) and diurnally steepened surface to 1.5 km lapse rates will support a risk for wet microbursts with the more intense water-loaded downdrafts. Localized gusts 50-65 mph are possible and scattered pockets of wind damage may result. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN UTAH INTO NORTHWEST COLORADO... Another day of hot, dry, and breezy conditions is likely tomorrow (Saturday) afternoon/evening across much of the southern/eastern Great Basin and adjacent portions of northern Arizona, western Colorado, and southwestern Wyoming. A Critical fire weather area was introduced across portions of southern/eastern Utah and northwestern Colorado, where several hours of sustained winds in excess of 20 mph and minimum RH values around 10-15% overlapping critically receptive fuels are expected. Minor modifications were also made to the isolated dry thunderstorm area over portions of the northern Great Basin and Intermountain West based on the latest high-resolution ensemble guidance. Please see the previous discussion below for more information on tomorrow's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 08/01/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel shortwave trough will deamplify as it moves slowly eastward across the northern Great Basin during the day. Large-scale forcing for ascent and steep low/midlevel lapse rates preceding this feature will promote another day of isolated to widely scattered high-based thunderstorms across the northern Great Basin/Intermountain West. Around 0.5-0.7 inch PW and modest storm motions will support mostly dry thunderstorms, posing a risk of lightning-induced ignitions over receptive fuels. Between the shortwave trough and a large-scale ridge over the Southwest/northern Mexico, moderate midlevel westerly flow will overspread a deeply mixed boundary layer over parts of the Southwest/Great Basin into the central Rockies. Single-digit to lower teens RH and breezy west-southwesterly surface winds will yield elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions across parts of northern AZ, much of southern/central UT, and far western CO during the afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN UTAH INTO NORTHWEST COLORADO... Another day of hot, dry, and breezy conditions is likely tomorrow (Saturday) afternoon/evening across much of the southern/eastern Great Basin and adjacent portions of northern Arizona, western Colorado, and southwestern Wyoming. A Critical fire weather area was introduced across portions of southern/eastern Utah and northwestern Colorado, where several hours of sustained winds in excess of 20 mph and minimum RH values around 10-15% overlapping critically receptive fuels are expected. Minor modifications were also made to the isolated dry thunderstorm area over portions of the northern Great Basin and Intermountain West based on the latest high-resolution ensemble guidance. Please see the previous discussion below for more information on tomorrow's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 08/01/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel shortwave trough will deamplify as it moves slowly eastward across the northern Great Basin during the day. Large-scale forcing for ascent and steep low/midlevel lapse rates preceding this feature will promote another day of isolated to widely scattered high-based thunderstorms across the northern Great Basin/Intermountain West. Around 0.5-0.7 inch PW and modest storm motions will support mostly dry thunderstorms, posing a risk of lightning-induced ignitions over receptive fuels. Between the shortwave trough and a large-scale ridge over the Southwest/northern Mexico, moderate midlevel westerly flow will overspread a deeply mixed boundary layer over parts of the Southwest/Great Basin into the central Rockies. Single-digit to lower teens RH and breezy west-southwesterly surface winds will yield elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions across parts of northern AZ, much of southern/central UT, and far western CO during the afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more