Severe Storms

MD 1874 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 566...567... FOR SOUTHEAST CO...SOUTHWEST KS...NORTHEAST NM...OK AND NORTHERN TX PANHANDLES
Mesoscale Discussion 1874 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0747 PM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025 Areas affected...Southeast CO...southwest KS...northeast NM...OK and northern TX Panhandles Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 566...567... Valid 030047Z - 030215Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 566, 567 continues. SUMMARY...A large-hail threat will continue in the short term, with some increase in the severe-wind threat possible with time. DISCUSSION...Multiple supercells have recently intensified across southeast CO, as high-based convection and attendant outflow has encountered a more unstable and less capped environment. Steep lapse rates, MLCAPE near/above 2000 J/kg, and moderate effective shear within the midlevel northwesterly flow regime will support a short-term threat for large to very large hail with these cells, along with some potential for isolated strong to severe gusts and possibly a tornado. Storm mergers and expanding outflow are expected to eventually result in some upscale growth, which would be aided by a modestly strengthening low-level jet through the evening. This evolution could lead to a greater coverage of severe-wind potential with time. Farther south, multiple strong to severe cells have persisted across Union County, NM. While CINH remains downstream, one or more of these storms may eventually move into the western OK/TX Panhandles with at least a localized severe hail/wind threat, especially if any clustering can occur. New watch issuance is possible into more of the OK/TX Panhandles later this evening, especially if an organized MCS evolves across southeast CO and moves southeastward, as suggested by recent short-term CAM guidance. ..Dean/Gleason.. 08/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ... LAT...LON 38890255 38760175 38220072 36800072 35900126 35440171 35320240 35430329 36310391 38550398 38890255 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

WW 0566 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 566 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ENE COS TO 30 W ITR TO 40 N ITR TO 30 WSW IML TO 30 NE AKO TO 45 E FCL TO 35 SW FCL. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1874 ..DEAN..08/03/25 ATTN...WFO...BOU...PUB...GLD...CYS...LBF...ABQ...AMA... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 566 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC009-011-017-025-061-063-071-075-089-095-099-115-030240- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BACA BENT CHEYENNE CROWLEY KIOWA KIT CARSON LAS ANIMAS LOGAN OTERO PHILLIPS PROWERS SEDGWICK NEC007-033-049-069-105-123-030240- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BANNER CHEYENNE DEUEL GARDEN KIMBALL MORRILL NMC021-059-030240- Read more

WW 0567 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 567 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1874 ..DEAN..08/03/25 ATTN...WFO...GLD...DDC...LBF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 567 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC023-025-039-055-057-063-067-069-071-075-081-093-101-109-119- 129-153-171-175-179-181-187-189-193-199-203-030240- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE CLARK DECATUR FINNEY FORD GOVE GRANT GRAY GREELEY HAMILTON HASKELL KEARNY LANE LOGAN MEADE MORTON RAWLINS SCOTT SEWARD SHERIDAN SHERMAN STANTON STEVENS THOMAS WALLACE WICHITA NEC029-057-085-087-135-145-030240- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHASE DUNDY HAYES HITCHCOCK PERKINS RED WILLOW Read more

WW 0567 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 567 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1874 ..DEAN..08/03/25 ATTN...WFO...GLD...DDC...LBF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 567 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC023-025-039-055-057-063-067-069-071-075-081-093-101-109-119- 129-153-171-175-179-181-187-189-193-199-203-030240- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE CLARK DECATUR FINNEY FORD GOVE GRANT GRAY GREELEY HAMILTON HASKELL KEARNY LANE LOGAN MEADE MORTON RAWLINS SCOTT SEWARD SHERIDAN SHERMAN STANTON STEVENS THOMAS WALLACE WICHITA NEC029-057-085-087-135-145-030240- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHASE DUNDY HAYES HITCHCOCK PERKINS RED WILLOW Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0758 PM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025 Valid 030100Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible in parts of the central and southern High Plains through tonight. Isolated large hail and severe wind gusts are the primary threats. ...Central and Southern High Plains... Numerous thunderstorms have developed over the central High Plains early this evening aided by low-level upslope flow and weak ascent from a shortwave trough progressing through the Rockies. Enhanced west/northwesterly flow aloft near the upper trough has resulted in a few organized storms and supercells so far. Modest surface winds have generally favored more outflow dominant structures, and this is likely to continue this evening. Upscale growth into an organized cluster or linear MCS is likely as storms continue across eastern CO and into parts of NE and western KS. A few supercell structures may remain organized for some time this evening, supporting some risk for hail given 2000-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE and 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear. However, as outflow continues to strengthen and consolidate, the damaging wind threat is expected to increase with time. Observational trends and evening CAM guidance suggest supercells across southeastern CO should continue to merge into a stronger cluster moving southeast into parts of southwestern KS and eventually the TX/OK Panhandles tonight. Hail and damaging gusts are likely with this activity through the next couple of hours. Surface dewpoints in the 60s contributing to moderate/large buoyancy and a 30-35 kt low-level jet could support additional organization into a more linear system tonight. This would favor an increased risk for damaging gusts. See MCD#1874 for additional short-term information. ...Northern High Plains... Broad troughing over the West has aided in the development of scattered thunderstorms across the higher terrain of southern MT into northern WY early this evening. While vertical shear is overall modest, (generally less than 25 kt) a few loosely organized thunderstorm clusters may emerge from the higher terrain into the northern High Plains this evening. With sufficient MLCAPE (1000-1500 J/kg) for robust updrafts, any persistent clusters with stronger downdrafts will be potentially capable of isolated severe gusts (60-70 mph) before weakening overnight. ..Lyons.. 08/03/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0758 PM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025 Valid 030100Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible in parts of the central and southern High Plains through tonight. Isolated large hail and severe wind gusts are the primary threats. ...Central and Southern High Plains... Numerous thunderstorms have developed over the central High Plains early this evening aided by low-level upslope flow and weak ascent from a shortwave trough progressing through the Rockies. Enhanced west/northwesterly flow aloft near the upper trough has resulted in a few organized storms and supercells so far. Modest surface winds have generally favored more outflow dominant structures, and this is likely to continue this evening. Upscale growth into an organized cluster or linear MCS is likely as storms continue across eastern CO and into parts of NE and western KS. A few supercell structures may remain organized for some time this evening, supporting some risk for hail given 2000-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE and 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear. However, as outflow continues to strengthen and consolidate, the damaging wind threat is expected to increase with time. Observational trends and evening CAM guidance suggest supercells across southeastern CO should continue to merge into a stronger cluster moving southeast into parts of southwestern KS and eventually the TX/OK Panhandles tonight. Hail and damaging gusts are likely with this activity through the next couple of hours. Surface dewpoints in the 60s contributing to moderate/large buoyancy and a 30-35 kt low-level jet could support additional organization into a more linear system tonight. This would favor an increased risk for damaging gusts. See MCD#1874 for additional short-term information. ...Northern High Plains... Broad troughing over the West has aided in the development of scattered thunderstorms across the higher terrain of southern MT into northern WY early this evening. While vertical shear is overall modest, (generally less than 25 kt) a few loosely organized thunderstorm clusters may emerge from the higher terrain into the northern High Plains this evening. With sufficient MLCAPE (1000-1500 J/kg) for robust updrafts, any persistent clusters with stronger downdrafts will be potentially capable of isolated severe gusts (60-70 mph) before weakening overnight. ..Lyons.. 08/03/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0758 PM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025 Valid 030100Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible in parts of the central and southern High Plains through tonight. Isolated large hail and severe wind gusts are the primary threats. ...Central and Southern High Plains... Numerous thunderstorms have developed over the central High Plains early this evening aided by low-level upslope flow and weak ascent from a shortwave trough progressing through the Rockies. Enhanced west/northwesterly flow aloft near the upper trough has resulted in a few organized storms and supercells so far. Modest surface winds have generally favored more outflow dominant structures, and this is likely to continue this evening. Upscale growth into an organized cluster or linear MCS is likely as storms continue across eastern CO and into parts of NE and western KS. A few supercell structures may remain organized for some time this evening, supporting some risk for hail given 2000-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE and 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear. However, as outflow continues to strengthen and consolidate, the damaging wind threat is expected to increase with time. Observational trends and evening CAM guidance suggest supercells across southeastern CO should continue to merge into a stronger cluster moving southeast into parts of southwestern KS and eventually the TX/OK Panhandles tonight. Hail and damaging gusts are likely with this activity through the next couple of hours. Surface dewpoints in the 60s contributing to moderate/large buoyancy and a 30-35 kt low-level jet could support additional organization into a more linear system tonight. This would favor an increased risk for damaging gusts. See MCD#1874 for additional short-term information. ...Northern High Plains... Broad troughing over the West has aided in the development of scattered thunderstorms across the higher terrain of southern MT into northern WY early this evening. While vertical shear is overall modest, (generally less than 25 kt) a few loosely organized thunderstorm clusters may emerge from the higher terrain into the northern High Plains this evening. With sufficient MLCAPE (1000-1500 J/kg) for robust updrafts, any persistent clusters with stronger downdrafts will be potentially capable of isolated severe gusts (60-70 mph) before weakening overnight. ..Lyons.. 08/03/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0758 PM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025 Valid 030100Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible in parts of the central and southern High Plains through tonight. Isolated large hail and severe wind gusts are the primary threats. ...Central and Southern High Plains... Numerous thunderstorms have developed over the central High Plains early this evening aided by low-level upslope flow and weak ascent from a shortwave trough progressing through the Rockies. Enhanced west/northwesterly flow aloft near the upper trough has resulted in a few organized storms and supercells so far. Modest surface winds have generally favored more outflow dominant structures, and this is likely to continue this evening. Upscale growth into an organized cluster or linear MCS is likely as storms continue across eastern CO and into parts of NE and western KS. A few supercell structures may remain organized for some time this evening, supporting some risk for hail given 2000-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE and 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear. However, as outflow continues to strengthen and consolidate, the damaging wind threat is expected to increase with time. Observational trends and evening CAM guidance suggest supercells across southeastern CO should continue to merge into a stronger cluster moving southeast into parts of southwestern KS and eventually the TX/OK Panhandles tonight. Hail and damaging gusts are likely with this activity through the next couple of hours. Surface dewpoints in the 60s contributing to moderate/large buoyancy and a 30-35 kt low-level jet could support additional organization into a more linear system tonight. This would favor an increased risk for damaging gusts. See MCD#1874 for additional short-term information. ...Northern High Plains... Broad troughing over the West has aided in the development of scattered thunderstorms across the higher terrain of southern MT into northern WY early this evening. While vertical shear is overall modest, (generally less than 25 kt) a few loosely organized thunderstorm clusters may emerge from the higher terrain into the northern High Plains this evening. With sufficient MLCAPE (1000-1500 J/kg) for robust updrafts, any persistent clusters with stronger downdrafts will be potentially capable of isolated severe gusts (60-70 mph) before weakening overnight. ..Lyons.. 08/03/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0758 PM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025 Valid 030100Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible in parts of the central and southern High Plains through tonight. Isolated large hail and severe wind gusts are the primary threats. ...Central and Southern High Plains... Numerous thunderstorms have developed over the central High Plains early this evening aided by low-level upslope flow and weak ascent from a shortwave trough progressing through the Rockies. Enhanced west/northwesterly flow aloft near the upper trough has resulted in a few organized storms and supercells so far. Modest surface winds have generally favored more outflow dominant structures, and this is likely to continue this evening. Upscale growth into an organized cluster or linear MCS is likely as storms continue across eastern CO and into parts of NE and western KS. A few supercell structures may remain organized for some time this evening, supporting some risk for hail given 2000-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE and 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear. However, as outflow continues to strengthen and consolidate, the damaging wind threat is expected to increase with time. Observational trends and evening CAM guidance suggest supercells across southeastern CO should continue to merge into a stronger cluster moving southeast into parts of southwestern KS and eventually the TX/OK Panhandles tonight. Hail and damaging gusts are likely with this activity through the next couple of hours. Surface dewpoints in the 60s contributing to moderate/large buoyancy and a 30-35 kt low-level jet could support additional organization into a more linear system tonight. This would favor an increased risk for damaging gusts. See MCD#1874 for additional short-term information. ...Northern High Plains... Broad troughing over the West has aided in the development of scattered thunderstorms across the higher terrain of southern MT into northern WY early this evening. While vertical shear is overall modest, (generally less than 25 kt) a few loosely organized thunderstorm clusters may emerge from the higher terrain into the northern High Plains this evening. With sufficient MLCAPE (1000-1500 J/kg) for robust updrafts, any persistent clusters with stronger downdrafts will be potentially capable of isolated severe gusts (60-70 mph) before weakening overnight. ..Lyons.. 08/03/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0758 PM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025 Valid 030100Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible in parts of the central and southern High Plains through tonight. Isolated large hail and severe wind gusts are the primary threats. ...Central and Southern High Plains... Numerous thunderstorms have developed over the central High Plains early this evening aided by low-level upslope flow and weak ascent from a shortwave trough progressing through the Rockies. Enhanced west/northwesterly flow aloft near the upper trough has resulted in a few organized storms and supercells so far. Modest surface winds have generally favored more outflow dominant structures, and this is likely to continue this evening. Upscale growth into an organized cluster or linear MCS is likely as storms continue across eastern CO and into parts of NE and western KS. A few supercell structures may remain organized for some time this evening, supporting some risk for hail given 2000-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE and 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear. However, as outflow continues to strengthen and consolidate, the damaging wind threat is expected to increase with time. Observational trends and evening CAM guidance suggest supercells across southeastern CO should continue to merge into a stronger cluster moving southeast into parts of southwestern KS and eventually the TX/OK Panhandles tonight. Hail and damaging gusts are likely with this activity through the next couple of hours. Surface dewpoints in the 60s contributing to moderate/large buoyancy and a 30-35 kt low-level jet could support additional organization into a more linear system tonight. This would favor an increased risk for damaging gusts. See MCD#1874 for additional short-term information. ...Northern High Plains... Broad troughing over the West has aided in the development of scattered thunderstorms across the higher terrain of southern MT into northern WY early this evening. While vertical shear is overall modest, (generally less than 25 kt) a few loosely organized thunderstorm clusters may emerge from the higher terrain into the northern High Plains this evening. With sufficient MLCAPE (1000-1500 J/kg) for robust updrafts, any persistent clusters with stronger downdrafts will be potentially capable of isolated severe gusts (60-70 mph) before weakening overnight. ..Lyons.. 08/03/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0758 PM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025 Valid 030100Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible in parts of the central and southern High Plains through tonight. Isolated large hail and severe wind gusts are the primary threats. ...Central and Southern High Plains... Numerous thunderstorms have developed over the central High Plains early this evening aided by low-level upslope flow and weak ascent from a shortwave trough progressing through the Rockies. Enhanced west/northwesterly flow aloft near the upper trough has resulted in a few organized storms and supercells so far. Modest surface winds have generally favored more outflow dominant structures, and this is likely to continue this evening. Upscale growth into an organized cluster or linear MCS is likely as storms continue across eastern CO and into parts of NE and western KS. A few supercell structures may remain organized for some time this evening, supporting some risk for hail given 2000-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE and 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear. However, as outflow continues to strengthen and consolidate, the damaging wind threat is expected to increase with time. Observational trends and evening CAM guidance suggest supercells across southeastern CO should continue to merge into a stronger cluster moving southeast into parts of southwestern KS and eventually the TX/OK Panhandles tonight. Hail and damaging gusts are likely with this activity through the next couple of hours. Surface dewpoints in the 60s contributing to moderate/large buoyancy and a 30-35 kt low-level jet could support additional organization into a more linear system tonight. This would favor an increased risk for damaging gusts. See MCD#1874 for additional short-term information. ...Northern High Plains... Broad troughing over the West has aided in the development of scattered thunderstorms across the higher terrain of southern MT into northern WY early this evening. While vertical shear is overall modest, (generally less than 25 kt) a few loosely organized thunderstorm clusters may emerge from the higher terrain into the northern High Plains this evening. With sufficient MLCAPE (1000-1500 J/kg) for robust updrafts, any persistent clusters with stronger downdrafts will be potentially capable of isolated severe gusts (60-70 mph) before weakening overnight. ..Lyons.. 08/03/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0758 PM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025 Valid 030100Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible in parts of the central and southern High Plains through tonight. Isolated large hail and severe wind gusts are the primary threats. ...Central and Southern High Plains... Numerous thunderstorms have developed over the central High Plains early this evening aided by low-level upslope flow and weak ascent from a shortwave trough progressing through the Rockies. Enhanced west/northwesterly flow aloft near the upper trough has resulted in a few organized storms and supercells so far. Modest surface winds have generally favored more outflow dominant structures, and this is likely to continue this evening. Upscale growth into an organized cluster or linear MCS is likely as storms continue across eastern CO and into parts of NE and western KS. A few supercell structures may remain organized for some time this evening, supporting some risk for hail given 2000-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE and 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear. However, as outflow continues to strengthen and consolidate, the damaging wind threat is expected to increase with time. Observational trends and evening CAM guidance suggest supercells across southeastern CO should continue to merge into a stronger cluster moving southeast into parts of southwestern KS and eventually the TX/OK Panhandles tonight. Hail and damaging gusts are likely with this activity through the next couple of hours. Surface dewpoints in the 60s contributing to moderate/large buoyancy and a 30-35 kt low-level jet could support additional organization into a more linear system tonight. This would favor an increased risk for damaging gusts. See MCD#1874 for additional short-term information. ...Northern High Plains... Broad troughing over the West has aided in the development of scattered thunderstorms across the higher terrain of southern MT into northern WY early this evening. While vertical shear is overall modest, (generally less than 25 kt) a few loosely organized thunderstorm clusters may emerge from the higher terrain into the northern High Plains this evening. With sufficient MLCAPE (1000-1500 J/kg) for robust updrafts, any persistent clusters with stronger downdrafts will be potentially capable of isolated severe gusts (60-70 mph) before weakening overnight. ..Lyons.. 08/03/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0758 PM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025 Valid 030100Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible in parts of the central and southern High Plains through tonight. Isolated large hail and severe wind gusts are the primary threats. ...Central and Southern High Plains... Numerous thunderstorms have developed over the central High Plains early this evening aided by low-level upslope flow and weak ascent from a shortwave trough progressing through the Rockies. Enhanced west/northwesterly flow aloft near the upper trough has resulted in a few organized storms and supercells so far. Modest surface winds have generally favored more outflow dominant structures, and this is likely to continue this evening. Upscale growth into an organized cluster or linear MCS is likely as storms continue across eastern CO and into parts of NE and western KS. A few supercell structures may remain organized for some time this evening, supporting some risk for hail given 2000-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE and 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear. However, as outflow continues to strengthen and consolidate, the damaging wind threat is expected to increase with time. Observational trends and evening CAM guidance suggest supercells across southeastern CO should continue to merge into a stronger cluster moving southeast into parts of southwestern KS and eventually the TX/OK Panhandles tonight. Hail and damaging gusts are likely with this activity through the next couple of hours. Surface dewpoints in the 60s contributing to moderate/large buoyancy and a 30-35 kt low-level jet could support additional organization into a more linear system tonight. This would favor an increased risk for damaging gusts. See MCD#1874 for additional short-term information. ...Northern High Plains... Broad troughing over the West has aided in the development of scattered thunderstorms across the higher terrain of southern MT into northern WY early this evening. While vertical shear is overall modest, (generally less than 25 kt) a few loosely organized thunderstorm clusters may emerge from the higher terrain into the northern High Plains this evening. With sufficient MLCAPE (1000-1500 J/kg) for robust updrafts, any persistent clusters with stronger downdrafts will be potentially capable of isolated severe gusts (60-70 mph) before weakening overnight. ..Lyons.. 08/03/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0758 PM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025 Valid 030100Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible in parts of the central and southern High Plains through tonight. Isolated large hail and severe wind gusts are the primary threats. ...Central and Southern High Plains... Numerous thunderstorms have developed over the central High Plains early this evening aided by low-level upslope flow and weak ascent from a shortwave trough progressing through the Rockies. Enhanced west/northwesterly flow aloft near the upper trough has resulted in a few organized storms and supercells so far. Modest surface winds have generally favored more outflow dominant structures, and this is likely to continue this evening. Upscale growth into an organized cluster or linear MCS is likely as storms continue across eastern CO and into parts of NE and western KS. A few supercell structures may remain organized for some time this evening, supporting some risk for hail given 2000-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE and 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear. However, as outflow continues to strengthen and consolidate, the damaging wind threat is expected to increase with time. Observational trends and evening CAM guidance suggest supercells across southeastern CO should continue to merge into a stronger cluster moving southeast into parts of southwestern KS and eventually the TX/OK Panhandles tonight. Hail and damaging gusts are likely with this activity through the next couple of hours. Surface dewpoints in the 60s contributing to moderate/large buoyancy and a 30-35 kt low-level jet could support additional organization into a more linear system tonight. This would favor an increased risk for damaging gusts. See MCD#1874 for additional short-term information. ...Northern High Plains... Broad troughing over the West has aided in the development of scattered thunderstorms across the higher terrain of southern MT into northern WY early this evening. While vertical shear is overall modest, (generally less than 25 kt) a few loosely organized thunderstorm clusters may emerge from the higher terrain into the northern High Plains this evening. With sufficient MLCAPE (1000-1500 J/kg) for robust updrafts, any persistent clusters with stronger downdrafts will be potentially capable of isolated severe gusts (60-70 mph) before weakening overnight. ..Lyons.. 08/03/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0758 PM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025 Valid 030100Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible in parts of the central and southern High Plains through tonight. Isolated large hail and severe wind gusts are the primary threats. ...Central and Southern High Plains... Numerous thunderstorms have developed over the central High Plains early this evening aided by low-level upslope flow and weak ascent from a shortwave trough progressing through the Rockies. Enhanced west/northwesterly flow aloft near the upper trough has resulted in a few organized storms and supercells so far. Modest surface winds have generally favored more outflow dominant structures, and this is likely to continue this evening. Upscale growth into an organized cluster or linear MCS is likely as storms continue across eastern CO and into parts of NE and western KS. A few supercell structures may remain organized for some time this evening, supporting some risk for hail given 2000-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE and 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear. However, as outflow continues to strengthen and consolidate, the damaging wind threat is expected to increase with time. Observational trends and evening CAM guidance suggest supercells across southeastern CO should continue to merge into a stronger cluster moving southeast into parts of southwestern KS and eventually the TX/OK Panhandles tonight. Hail and damaging gusts are likely with this activity through the next couple of hours. Surface dewpoints in the 60s contributing to moderate/large buoyancy and a 30-35 kt low-level jet could support additional organization into a more linear system tonight. This would favor an increased risk for damaging gusts. See MCD#1874 for additional short-term information. ...Northern High Plains... Broad troughing over the West has aided in the development of scattered thunderstorms across the higher terrain of southern MT into northern WY early this evening. While vertical shear is overall modest, (generally less than 25 kt) a few loosely organized thunderstorm clusters may emerge from the higher terrain into the northern High Plains this evening. With sufficient MLCAPE (1000-1500 J/kg) for robust updrafts, any persistent clusters with stronger downdrafts will be potentially capable of isolated severe gusts (60-70 mph) before weakening overnight. ..Lyons.. 08/03/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0758 PM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025 Valid 030100Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible in parts of the central and southern High Plains through tonight. Isolated large hail and severe wind gusts are the primary threats. ...Central and Southern High Plains... Numerous thunderstorms have developed over the central High Plains early this evening aided by low-level upslope flow and weak ascent from a shortwave trough progressing through the Rockies. Enhanced west/northwesterly flow aloft near the upper trough has resulted in a few organized storms and supercells so far. Modest surface winds have generally favored more outflow dominant structures, and this is likely to continue this evening. Upscale growth into an organized cluster or linear MCS is likely as storms continue across eastern CO and into parts of NE and western KS. A few supercell structures may remain organized for some time this evening, supporting some risk for hail given 2000-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE and 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear. However, as outflow continues to strengthen and consolidate, the damaging wind threat is expected to increase with time. Observational trends and evening CAM guidance suggest supercells across southeastern CO should continue to merge into a stronger cluster moving southeast into parts of southwestern KS and eventually the TX/OK Panhandles tonight. Hail and damaging gusts are likely with this activity through the next couple of hours. Surface dewpoints in the 60s contributing to moderate/large buoyancy and a 30-35 kt low-level jet could support additional organization into a more linear system tonight. This would favor an increased risk for damaging gusts. See MCD#1874 for additional short-term information. ...Northern High Plains... Broad troughing over the West has aided in the development of scattered thunderstorms across the higher terrain of southern MT into northern WY early this evening. While vertical shear is overall modest, (generally less than 25 kt) a few loosely organized thunderstorm clusters may emerge from the higher terrain into the northern High Plains this evening. With sufficient MLCAPE (1000-1500 J/kg) for robust updrafts, any persistent clusters with stronger downdrafts will be potentially capable of isolated severe gusts (60-70 mph) before weakening overnight. ..Lyons.. 08/03/2025 Read more

WW 0567 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0567 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

MD 1873 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 566... FOR EASTERN CO...WESTERN KS...SOUTHWEST NE
Mesoscale Discussion 1873 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0601 PM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025 Areas affected...Eastern CO...western KS...southwest NE Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 566... Valid 022301Z - 030030Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 566 continues. SUMMARY...Some increase in the severe threat is expected into the early evening. Downstream watch issuance is possible. DISCUSSION...A small storm cluster is moving eastward across east-central CO as of 23 UTC. Some strengthening of updrafts within the cluster has been noted over the last hour, and a 68 mph gust was recently observed in Adams County, along with 1-inch hail in Lincoln County. Recent mesoanalyses depict rather strong CINH immediately downstream of this cluster, and cumulus remains rather limited into far eastern CO, so this cluster may remain loosely organized in the short term. However, low/midlevel lapse rates are quite steep, and localized severe gusts and hail will continue to be possible with this cluster. Stronger instability and weaker CINH are in place farther east toward the CO/KS border. Some uptick in storm intensity and organization will be possible as ongoing convection moves into this more favorable environment early this evening. Some strengthening of the low-level jet is also expected near/after 00Z, which could result in somewhat more organized upscale growth. Downstream watch issuance is possible if trends support an increasing threat for organized severe storms into this evening. ..Dean/Gleason.. 08/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU... LAT...LON 40940336 40970201 40430142 38760144 37800143 37710252 37910343 38250416 39050389 39850435 40860412 40940336 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

WW 0566 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 566 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1873 ..DEAN..08/02/25 ATTN...WFO...BOU...PUB...GLD...CYS...LBF...ABQ...AMA... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 566 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC001-005-009-011-017-025-039-061-063-071-073-075-087-089-095- 099-115-121-123-125-030040- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS ARAPAHOE BACA BENT CHEYENNE CROWLEY ELBERT KIOWA KIT CARSON LAS ANIMAS LINCOLN LOGAN MORGAN OTERO PHILLIPS PROWERS SEDGWICK WASHINGTON WELD YUMA NEC007-033-049-069-105-123-030040- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BANNER CHEYENNE DEUEL GARDEN KIMBALL MORRILL Read more

WW 0566 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 566 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1873 ..DEAN..08/02/25 ATTN...WFO...BOU...PUB...GLD...CYS...LBF...ABQ...AMA... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 566 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC001-005-009-011-017-025-039-061-063-071-073-075-087-089-095- 099-115-121-123-125-030040- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS ARAPAHOE BACA BENT CHEYENNE CROWLEY ELBERT KIOWA KIT CARSON LAS ANIMAS LINCOLN LOGAN MORGAN OTERO PHILLIPS PROWERS SEDGWICK WASHINGTON WELD YUMA NEC007-033-049-069-105-123-030040- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BANNER CHEYENNE DEUEL GARDEN KIMBALL MORRILL Read more