Severe Storms

MD 1873 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 566... FOR EASTERN CO...WESTERN KS...SOUTHWEST NE
Mesoscale Discussion 1873 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0601 PM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025 Areas affected...Eastern CO...western KS...southwest NE Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 566... Valid 022301Z - 030030Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 566 continues. SUMMARY...Some increase in the severe threat is expected into the early evening. Downstream watch issuance is possible. DISCUSSION...A small storm cluster is moving eastward across east-central CO as of 23 UTC. Some strengthening of updrafts within the cluster has been noted over the last hour, and a 68 mph gust was recently observed in Adams County, along with 1-inch hail in Lincoln County. Recent mesoanalyses depict rather strong CINH immediately downstream of this cluster, and cumulus remains rather limited into far eastern CO, so this cluster may remain loosely organized in the short term. However, low/midlevel lapse rates are quite steep, and localized severe gusts and hail will continue to be possible with this cluster. Stronger instability and weaker CINH are in place farther east toward the CO/KS border. Some uptick in storm intensity and organization will be possible as ongoing convection moves into this more favorable environment early this evening. Some strengthening of the low-level jet is also expected near/after 00Z, which could result in somewhat more organized upscale growth. Downstream watch issuance is possible if trends support an increasing threat for organized severe storms into this evening. ..Dean/Gleason.. 08/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU... LAT...LON 40940336 40970201 40430142 38760144 37800143 37710252 37910343 38250416 39050389 39850435 40860412 40940336 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

WW 566 SEVERE TSTM CO NE NM OK TX 022100Z - 030300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 566 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 300 PM MDT Sat Aug 2 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Eastern Colorado Nebraska Panhandle Far Northeast New Mexico Western Oklahoma Panhandle Northwest Texas Panhandle * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 300 PM until 900 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to continue to develop and intensify this afternoon and move east across the Watch through the evening. The stronger thunderstorms will be potentially capable of large to very large hail and severe gusts. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 40 miles north northwest of Sidney NE to 50 miles west southwest of Dalhart TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 28020. ...Smith Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Aug 2 22:29:04 UTC 2025.

WW 0566 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 566 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..DEAN..08/02/25 ATTN...WFO...BOU...PUB...GLD...CYS...LBF...ABQ...AMA... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 566 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC001-005-009-011-017-025-039-061-063-071-073-075-087-089-095- 099-115-121-123-125-022240- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS ARAPAHOE BACA BENT CHEYENNE CROWLEY ELBERT KIOWA KIT CARSON LAS ANIMAS LINCOLN LOGAN MORGAN OTERO PHILLIPS PROWERS SEDGWICK WASHINGTON WELD YUMA NEC007-033-049-069-105-123-022240- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BANNER CHEYENNE DEUEL GARDEN KIMBALL MORRILL NMC021-059-022240- Read more

WW 0566 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 566 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..DEAN..08/02/25 ATTN...WFO...BOU...PUB...GLD...CYS...LBF...ABQ...AMA... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 566 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC001-005-009-011-017-025-039-061-063-071-073-075-087-089-095- 099-115-121-123-125-022240- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS ARAPAHOE BACA BENT CHEYENNE CROWLEY ELBERT KIOWA KIT CARSON LAS ANIMAS LINCOLN LOGAN MORGAN OTERO PHILLIPS PROWERS SEDGWICK WASHINGTON WELD YUMA NEC007-033-049-069-105-123-022240- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BANNER CHEYENNE DEUEL GARDEN KIMBALL MORRILL NMC021-059-022240- Read more

MD 1872 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR SOUTHWEST NE...EASTERN CO...NORTHEAST NM...AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE OK/TX PANHANDLES
Mesoscale Discussion 1872 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0236 PM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025 Areas affected...southwest NE...eastern CO...northeast NM...and western portions of the OK/TX Panhandles Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 021936Z - 022130Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorm potential will increase over the next couple of hours. Developing storms will pose a risk for large hail and severe wind gusts by late afternoon. A severe thunderstorm watch may be needed for portions of the central High Plains vicinity by 21z. DISCUSSION...Convection is increasing over higher terrain and within low-level upslope/confluent flow from northern NM into CO and WY. Mid/upper flow has increased, with 30-40 kt 0-6 km shear noted in latest mesoanalysis and regional 88-D VWP data. Backing south/southeasterly low-level winds are maintaining low to mid 60s F dewpoints across western KS into far eastern CO, with lower dewpoints into the 50s F elsewhere. Steep midlevel lapse rates were noted in morning RAOBs and latest forecast soundings, supporting ongoing moderate destabilization as surface temperatures continue to warm under mostly sunny skies. Initial convection moving off higher terrain will likely remain cellular amid elongated/straight hodographs. Thermodynamic and kinematic profiles will support large hail potential, possibly with a few hail stones up to 3.0 inch diameter. Strong heating and boundary layer mixing, with weaker low-level flow evident in VWP data and forecast soundings, also will support strong/severe gusts. As convection shifts east with time toward the CO/KS border vicinity, clustering/linear development is expected later this evening amid a strengthening low-level jet within the axis of deeper boundary layer moisture. Damaging wind potential will increase as this occurs. ..Leitman/Smith.. 08/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LBF...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...CYS...ABQ... LAT...LON 36800435 38820446 40510442 41300429 41520387 41610334 41480291 41050235 40320201 39520191 36780195 35990209 35480297 35670369 36140413 36800435 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0328 PM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z A mid/upper-level trough is forecast to remain entrenched across portions of the Northwest from Day 3/Monday into Day 8/Saturday. Meanwhile, a quasistationary mid/upper-level ridge, initially centered over portions of the Desert Southwest Day 3/Sunday, is forecast to gradually build northwestward, eventually reaching portions of the southern Great Basin by midweek and then retreating to the Desert Southwest by the end of the period. ...Great Basin... Multiple days of hot, very dry, and windy conditions are expected atop extremely receptive fuels across portions of the Great Basin and neighboring areas Day 3/Monday though at least Day 6/Thursday. Critical fire weather conditions appear likely across portions of central/southern Utah Day 3/Monday and Day 4/Tuesday as enhanced mid/upper-level winds strengthen over the area near the base of the trough and along the northern periphery of the ridge. While some guidance indicates subtle increases in low-level moisture Day 5/Wednesday into Day 6/Thursday, elevated to at least locally critical conditions will likely continue across much of the same areas given breezy conditions over receptive fuels (owing to lingering moderate/severe drought conditions). ...Isolated Dry Thunderstorms... While a few thunderstorms are possible Day 3/Monday across portions of Oregon into Idaho, PWAT values near or greater than 0.8" and multiple days of precipitation across the region reduce confidence in isolated dry thunderstorm potential. Nevertheless, new ignitions may be possible along the periphery of heavier thunderstorm cores wherever fuels remain receptive. Thunderstorms are also possible across portions of Arizona beginning Day 4/Tuesday and lingering through much of the work week. Isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible given fuels across this area remain extremely receptive to fire spread due to severe/extreme drought conditions. However, increasing PWATs suggest a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms, which precludes introducing probabilities for dry thunderstorms at this time. ..Elliott.. 08/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0328 PM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z A mid/upper-level trough is forecast to remain entrenched across portions of the Northwest from Day 3/Monday into Day 8/Saturday. Meanwhile, a quasistationary mid/upper-level ridge, initially centered over portions of the Desert Southwest Day 3/Sunday, is forecast to gradually build northwestward, eventually reaching portions of the southern Great Basin by midweek and then retreating to the Desert Southwest by the end of the period. ...Great Basin... Multiple days of hot, very dry, and windy conditions are expected atop extremely receptive fuels across portions of the Great Basin and neighboring areas Day 3/Monday though at least Day 6/Thursday. Critical fire weather conditions appear likely across portions of central/southern Utah Day 3/Monday and Day 4/Tuesday as enhanced mid/upper-level winds strengthen over the area near the base of the trough and along the northern periphery of the ridge. While some guidance indicates subtle increases in low-level moisture Day 5/Wednesday into Day 6/Thursday, elevated to at least locally critical conditions will likely continue across much of the same areas given breezy conditions over receptive fuels (owing to lingering moderate/severe drought conditions). ...Isolated Dry Thunderstorms... While a few thunderstorms are possible Day 3/Monday across portions of Oregon into Idaho, PWAT values near or greater than 0.8" and multiple days of precipitation across the region reduce confidence in isolated dry thunderstorm potential. Nevertheless, new ignitions may be possible along the periphery of heavier thunderstorm cores wherever fuels remain receptive. Thunderstorms are also possible across portions of Arizona beginning Day 4/Tuesday and lingering through much of the work week. Isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible given fuels across this area remain extremely receptive to fire spread due to severe/extreme drought conditions. However, increasing PWATs suggest a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms, which precludes introducing probabilities for dry thunderstorms at this time. ..Elliott.. 08/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0328 PM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z A mid/upper-level trough is forecast to remain entrenched across portions of the Northwest from Day 3/Monday into Day 8/Saturday. Meanwhile, a quasistationary mid/upper-level ridge, initially centered over portions of the Desert Southwest Day 3/Sunday, is forecast to gradually build northwestward, eventually reaching portions of the southern Great Basin by midweek and then retreating to the Desert Southwest by the end of the period. ...Great Basin... Multiple days of hot, very dry, and windy conditions are expected atop extremely receptive fuels across portions of the Great Basin and neighboring areas Day 3/Monday though at least Day 6/Thursday. Critical fire weather conditions appear likely across portions of central/southern Utah Day 3/Monday and Day 4/Tuesday as enhanced mid/upper-level winds strengthen over the area near the base of the trough and along the northern periphery of the ridge. While some guidance indicates subtle increases in low-level moisture Day 5/Wednesday into Day 6/Thursday, elevated to at least locally critical conditions will likely continue across much of the same areas given breezy conditions over receptive fuels (owing to lingering moderate/severe drought conditions). ...Isolated Dry Thunderstorms... While a few thunderstorms are possible Day 3/Monday across portions of Oregon into Idaho, PWAT values near or greater than 0.8" and multiple days of precipitation across the region reduce confidence in isolated dry thunderstorm potential. Nevertheless, new ignitions may be possible along the periphery of heavier thunderstorm cores wherever fuels remain receptive. Thunderstorms are also possible across portions of Arizona beginning Day 4/Tuesday and lingering through much of the work week. Isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible given fuels across this area remain extremely receptive to fire spread due to severe/extreme drought conditions. However, increasing PWATs suggest a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms, which precludes introducing probabilities for dry thunderstorms at this time. ..Elliott.. 08/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0328 PM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z A mid/upper-level trough is forecast to remain entrenched across portions of the Northwest from Day 3/Monday into Day 8/Saturday. Meanwhile, a quasistationary mid/upper-level ridge, initially centered over portions of the Desert Southwest Day 3/Sunday, is forecast to gradually build northwestward, eventually reaching portions of the southern Great Basin by midweek and then retreating to the Desert Southwest by the end of the period. ...Great Basin... Multiple days of hot, very dry, and windy conditions are expected atop extremely receptive fuels across portions of the Great Basin and neighboring areas Day 3/Monday though at least Day 6/Thursday. Critical fire weather conditions appear likely across portions of central/southern Utah Day 3/Monday and Day 4/Tuesday as enhanced mid/upper-level winds strengthen over the area near the base of the trough and along the northern periphery of the ridge. While some guidance indicates subtle increases in low-level moisture Day 5/Wednesday into Day 6/Thursday, elevated to at least locally critical conditions will likely continue across much of the same areas given breezy conditions over receptive fuels (owing to lingering moderate/severe drought conditions). ...Isolated Dry Thunderstorms... While a few thunderstorms are possible Day 3/Monday across portions of Oregon into Idaho, PWAT values near or greater than 0.8" and multiple days of precipitation across the region reduce confidence in isolated dry thunderstorm potential. Nevertheless, new ignitions may be possible along the periphery of heavier thunderstorm cores wherever fuels remain receptive. Thunderstorms are also possible across portions of Arizona beginning Day 4/Tuesday and lingering through much of the work week. Isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible given fuels across this area remain extremely receptive to fire spread due to severe/extreme drought conditions. However, increasing PWATs suggest a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms, which precludes introducing probabilities for dry thunderstorms at this time. ..Elliott.. 08/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0328 PM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z A mid/upper-level trough is forecast to remain entrenched across portions of the Northwest from Day 3/Monday into Day 8/Saturday. Meanwhile, a quasistationary mid/upper-level ridge, initially centered over portions of the Desert Southwest Day 3/Sunday, is forecast to gradually build northwestward, eventually reaching portions of the southern Great Basin by midweek and then retreating to the Desert Southwest by the end of the period. ...Great Basin... Multiple days of hot, very dry, and windy conditions are expected atop extremely receptive fuels across portions of the Great Basin and neighboring areas Day 3/Monday though at least Day 6/Thursday. Critical fire weather conditions appear likely across portions of central/southern Utah Day 3/Monday and Day 4/Tuesday as enhanced mid/upper-level winds strengthen over the area near the base of the trough and along the northern periphery of the ridge. While some guidance indicates subtle increases in low-level moisture Day 5/Wednesday into Day 6/Thursday, elevated to at least locally critical conditions will likely continue across much of the same areas given breezy conditions over receptive fuels (owing to lingering moderate/severe drought conditions). ...Isolated Dry Thunderstorms... While a few thunderstorms are possible Day 3/Monday across portions of Oregon into Idaho, PWAT values near or greater than 0.8" and multiple days of precipitation across the region reduce confidence in isolated dry thunderstorm potential. Nevertheless, new ignitions may be possible along the periphery of heavier thunderstorm cores wherever fuels remain receptive. Thunderstorms are also possible across portions of Arizona beginning Day 4/Tuesday and lingering through much of the work week. Isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible given fuels across this area remain extremely receptive to fire spread due to severe/extreme drought conditions. However, increasing PWATs suggest a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms, which precludes introducing probabilities for dry thunderstorms at this time. ..Elliott.. 08/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0328 PM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z A mid/upper-level trough is forecast to remain entrenched across portions of the Northwest from Day 3/Monday into Day 8/Saturday. Meanwhile, a quasistationary mid/upper-level ridge, initially centered over portions of the Desert Southwest Day 3/Sunday, is forecast to gradually build northwestward, eventually reaching portions of the southern Great Basin by midweek and then retreating to the Desert Southwest by the end of the period. ...Great Basin... Multiple days of hot, very dry, and windy conditions are expected atop extremely receptive fuels across portions of the Great Basin and neighboring areas Day 3/Monday though at least Day 6/Thursday. Critical fire weather conditions appear likely across portions of central/southern Utah Day 3/Monday and Day 4/Tuesday as enhanced mid/upper-level winds strengthen over the area near the base of the trough and along the northern periphery of the ridge. While some guidance indicates subtle increases in low-level moisture Day 5/Wednesday into Day 6/Thursday, elevated to at least locally critical conditions will likely continue across much of the same areas given breezy conditions over receptive fuels (owing to lingering moderate/severe drought conditions). ...Isolated Dry Thunderstorms... While a few thunderstorms are possible Day 3/Monday across portions of Oregon into Idaho, PWAT values near or greater than 0.8" and multiple days of precipitation across the region reduce confidence in isolated dry thunderstorm potential. Nevertheless, new ignitions may be possible along the periphery of heavier thunderstorm cores wherever fuels remain receptive. Thunderstorms are also possible across portions of Arizona beginning Day 4/Tuesday and lingering through much of the work week. Isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible given fuels across this area remain extremely receptive to fire spread due to severe/extreme drought conditions. However, increasing PWATs suggest a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms, which precludes introducing probabilities for dry thunderstorms at this time. ..Elliott.. 08/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0328 PM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z A mid/upper-level trough is forecast to remain entrenched across portions of the Northwest from Day 3/Monday into Day 8/Saturday. Meanwhile, a quasistationary mid/upper-level ridge, initially centered over portions of the Desert Southwest Day 3/Sunday, is forecast to gradually build northwestward, eventually reaching portions of the southern Great Basin by midweek and then retreating to the Desert Southwest by the end of the period. ...Great Basin... Multiple days of hot, very dry, and windy conditions are expected atop extremely receptive fuels across portions of the Great Basin and neighboring areas Day 3/Monday though at least Day 6/Thursday. Critical fire weather conditions appear likely across portions of central/southern Utah Day 3/Monday and Day 4/Tuesday as enhanced mid/upper-level winds strengthen over the area near the base of the trough and along the northern periphery of the ridge. While some guidance indicates subtle increases in low-level moisture Day 5/Wednesday into Day 6/Thursday, elevated to at least locally critical conditions will likely continue across much of the same areas given breezy conditions over receptive fuels (owing to lingering moderate/severe drought conditions). ...Isolated Dry Thunderstorms... While a few thunderstorms are possible Day 3/Monday across portions of Oregon into Idaho, PWAT values near or greater than 0.8" and multiple days of precipitation across the region reduce confidence in isolated dry thunderstorm potential. Nevertheless, new ignitions may be possible along the periphery of heavier thunderstorm cores wherever fuels remain receptive. Thunderstorms are also possible across portions of Arizona beginning Day 4/Tuesday and lingering through much of the work week. Isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible given fuels across this area remain extremely receptive to fire spread due to severe/extreme drought conditions. However, increasing PWATs suggest a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms, which precludes introducing probabilities for dry thunderstorms at this time. ..Elliott.. 08/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0328 PM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z A mid/upper-level trough is forecast to remain entrenched across portions of the Northwest from Day 3/Monday into Day 8/Saturday. Meanwhile, a quasistationary mid/upper-level ridge, initially centered over portions of the Desert Southwest Day 3/Sunday, is forecast to gradually build northwestward, eventually reaching portions of the southern Great Basin by midweek and then retreating to the Desert Southwest by the end of the period. ...Great Basin... Multiple days of hot, very dry, and windy conditions are expected atop extremely receptive fuels across portions of the Great Basin and neighboring areas Day 3/Monday though at least Day 6/Thursday. Critical fire weather conditions appear likely across portions of central/southern Utah Day 3/Monday and Day 4/Tuesday as enhanced mid/upper-level winds strengthen over the area near the base of the trough and along the northern periphery of the ridge. While some guidance indicates subtle increases in low-level moisture Day 5/Wednesday into Day 6/Thursday, elevated to at least locally critical conditions will likely continue across much of the same areas given breezy conditions over receptive fuels (owing to lingering moderate/severe drought conditions). ...Isolated Dry Thunderstorms... While a few thunderstorms are possible Day 3/Monday across portions of Oregon into Idaho, PWAT values near or greater than 0.8" and multiple days of precipitation across the region reduce confidence in isolated dry thunderstorm potential. Nevertheless, new ignitions may be possible along the periphery of heavier thunderstorm cores wherever fuels remain receptive. Thunderstorms are also possible across portions of Arizona beginning Day 4/Tuesday and lingering through much of the work week. Isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible given fuels across this area remain extremely receptive to fire spread due to severe/extreme drought conditions. However, increasing PWATs suggest a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms, which precludes introducing probabilities for dry thunderstorms at this time. ..Elliott.. 08/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0328 PM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z A mid/upper-level trough is forecast to remain entrenched across portions of the Northwest from Day 3/Monday into Day 8/Saturday. Meanwhile, a quasistationary mid/upper-level ridge, initially centered over portions of the Desert Southwest Day 3/Sunday, is forecast to gradually build northwestward, eventually reaching portions of the southern Great Basin by midweek and then retreating to the Desert Southwest by the end of the period. ...Great Basin... Multiple days of hot, very dry, and windy conditions are expected atop extremely receptive fuels across portions of the Great Basin and neighboring areas Day 3/Monday though at least Day 6/Thursday. Critical fire weather conditions appear likely across portions of central/southern Utah Day 3/Monday and Day 4/Tuesday as enhanced mid/upper-level winds strengthen over the area near the base of the trough and along the northern periphery of the ridge. While some guidance indicates subtle increases in low-level moisture Day 5/Wednesday into Day 6/Thursday, elevated to at least locally critical conditions will likely continue across much of the same areas given breezy conditions over receptive fuels (owing to lingering moderate/severe drought conditions). ...Isolated Dry Thunderstorms... While a few thunderstorms are possible Day 3/Monday across portions of Oregon into Idaho, PWAT values near or greater than 0.8" and multiple days of precipitation across the region reduce confidence in isolated dry thunderstorm potential. Nevertheless, new ignitions may be possible along the periphery of heavier thunderstorm cores wherever fuels remain receptive. Thunderstorms are also possible across portions of Arizona beginning Day 4/Tuesday and lingering through much of the work week. Isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible given fuels across this area remain extremely receptive to fire spread due to severe/extreme drought conditions. However, increasing PWATs suggest a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms, which precludes introducing probabilities for dry thunderstorms at this time. ..Elliott.. 08/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0328 PM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z A mid/upper-level trough is forecast to remain entrenched across portions of the Northwest from Day 3/Monday into Day 8/Saturday. Meanwhile, a quasistationary mid/upper-level ridge, initially centered over portions of the Desert Southwest Day 3/Sunday, is forecast to gradually build northwestward, eventually reaching portions of the southern Great Basin by midweek and then retreating to the Desert Southwest by the end of the period. ...Great Basin... Multiple days of hot, very dry, and windy conditions are expected atop extremely receptive fuels across portions of the Great Basin and neighboring areas Day 3/Monday though at least Day 6/Thursday. Critical fire weather conditions appear likely across portions of central/southern Utah Day 3/Monday and Day 4/Tuesday as enhanced mid/upper-level winds strengthen over the area near the base of the trough and along the northern periphery of the ridge. While some guidance indicates subtle increases in low-level moisture Day 5/Wednesday into Day 6/Thursday, elevated to at least locally critical conditions will likely continue across much of the same areas given breezy conditions over receptive fuels (owing to lingering moderate/severe drought conditions). ...Isolated Dry Thunderstorms... While a few thunderstorms are possible Day 3/Monday across portions of Oregon into Idaho, PWAT values near or greater than 0.8" and multiple days of precipitation across the region reduce confidence in isolated dry thunderstorm potential. Nevertheless, new ignitions may be possible along the periphery of heavier thunderstorm cores wherever fuels remain receptive. Thunderstorms are also possible across portions of Arizona beginning Day 4/Tuesday and lingering through much of the work week. Isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible given fuels across this area remain extremely receptive to fire spread due to severe/extreme drought conditions. However, increasing PWATs suggest a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms, which precludes introducing probabilities for dry thunderstorms at this time. ..Elliott.. 08/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0328 PM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z A mid/upper-level trough is forecast to remain entrenched across portions of the Northwest from Day 3/Monday into Day 8/Saturday. Meanwhile, a quasistationary mid/upper-level ridge, initially centered over portions of the Desert Southwest Day 3/Sunday, is forecast to gradually build northwestward, eventually reaching portions of the southern Great Basin by midweek and then retreating to the Desert Southwest by the end of the period. ...Great Basin... Multiple days of hot, very dry, and windy conditions are expected atop extremely receptive fuels across portions of the Great Basin and neighboring areas Day 3/Monday though at least Day 6/Thursday. Critical fire weather conditions appear likely across portions of central/southern Utah Day 3/Monday and Day 4/Tuesday as enhanced mid/upper-level winds strengthen over the area near the base of the trough and along the northern periphery of the ridge. While some guidance indicates subtle increases in low-level moisture Day 5/Wednesday into Day 6/Thursday, elevated to at least locally critical conditions will likely continue across much of the same areas given breezy conditions over receptive fuels (owing to lingering moderate/severe drought conditions). ...Isolated Dry Thunderstorms... While a few thunderstorms are possible Day 3/Monday across portions of Oregon into Idaho, PWAT values near or greater than 0.8" and multiple days of precipitation across the region reduce confidence in isolated dry thunderstorm potential. Nevertheless, new ignitions may be possible along the periphery of heavier thunderstorm cores wherever fuels remain receptive. Thunderstorms are also possible across portions of Arizona beginning Day 4/Tuesday and lingering through much of the work week. Isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible given fuels across this area remain extremely receptive to fire spread due to severe/extreme drought conditions. However, increasing PWATs suggest a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms, which precludes introducing probabilities for dry thunderstorms at this time. ..Elliott.. 08/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0328 PM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z A mid/upper-level trough is forecast to remain entrenched across portions of the Northwest from Day 3/Monday into Day 8/Saturday. Meanwhile, a quasistationary mid/upper-level ridge, initially centered over portions of the Desert Southwest Day 3/Sunday, is forecast to gradually build northwestward, eventually reaching portions of the southern Great Basin by midweek and then retreating to the Desert Southwest by the end of the period. ...Great Basin... Multiple days of hot, very dry, and windy conditions are expected atop extremely receptive fuels across portions of the Great Basin and neighboring areas Day 3/Monday though at least Day 6/Thursday. Critical fire weather conditions appear likely across portions of central/southern Utah Day 3/Monday and Day 4/Tuesday as enhanced mid/upper-level winds strengthen over the area near the base of the trough and along the northern periphery of the ridge. While some guidance indicates subtle increases in low-level moisture Day 5/Wednesday into Day 6/Thursday, elevated to at least locally critical conditions will likely continue across much of the same areas given breezy conditions over receptive fuels (owing to lingering moderate/severe drought conditions). ...Isolated Dry Thunderstorms... While a few thunderstorms are possible Day 3/Monday across portions of Oregon into Idaho, PWAT values near or greater than 0.8" and multiple days of precipitation across the region reduce confidence in isolated dry thunderstorm potential. Nevertheless, new ignitions may be possible along the periphery of heavier thunderstorm cores wherever fuels remain receptive. Thunderstorms are also possible across portions of Arizona beginning Day 4/Tuesday and lingering through much of the work week. Isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible given fuels across this area remain extremely receptive to fire spread due to severe/extreme drought conditions. However, increasing PWATs suggest a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms, which precludes introducing probabilities for dry thunderstorms at this time. ..Elliott.. 08/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No watches are valid as of Sat Aug 2 20:34:01 UTC 2025.

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible in parts of the central and southern High Plains late this afternoon into tonight. Large to very large hail and severe wind gusts (60-80 mph) are the primary threats. ...20z... The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments made to the significant hail/wind areas. Recent HRRR/RRFS solutions appear to be capturing ongoing convective trends well as thunderstorms begin to develop within the central Rockies and along a lee trough in eastern CO (see MCD #1872 for additional details). These deterministic CAM runs and time-lagged ensembles continue to suggest that initially semi-discrete/scattered thunderstorms will undergo some degree of upscale growth through the late evening hours with an uptick in severe wind potential, but continue to show disparity/spread regarding the emergence of a more predominant/intense convective line. Although the environment will be supportive of significant wind gusts (especially across southeast CO/southwest KS into the OK/TX Panhandles), it remains unclear where the corridor of greatest severe wind potential will emerge. Higher wind probabilities were withheld for this reason. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 08/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025/ ...Central/Southern High Plains... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a low-amplitude shortwave trough moving east through the eastern Great Basin and into the central Rockies this afternoon and adjacent plains tonight. An attendant belt of strong westerly high-level flow extends from the base of a trough over the eastern Pacific eastward across the Great Basin and into KS. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop over the higher terrain of the Sangre de Cristos and Front Range this afternoon before moving east into the plains. Additional storms may also develop in the vicinity of a residual frontal zone draped north-south over eastern CO. Strong heating over the High Plains coupled with dewpoints ranging from near 50 deg F near I-25 to the lower 60s over western KS and mid 60s in the eastern half of the TX Panhandle, will favor moderate to strong buoyancy developing by mid to late afternoon. Forecast soundings show very steep 700-500 mb lapse rates (8-9 deg C/km) near and west of the 102 deg W parallel (KS-CO border). Elongated hodographs will support supercells with some of the stronger updrafts early in the convective cycle. Large to very large hail will be the primary hazard with these storms but a brief window of opportunity may exist for a tornado during the early evening transition when low-level southerly flow increases. It is likely a few clusters of storms will evolve during the evening with one or more clusters persisting through the evening and into the overnight, especially across the TX Panhandle. Severe gusts will become the predominant hazard with time as a linear storm morphology evolves and outflow becomes much more widespread. ...Northern High Plains... Glancing large-scale ascent augmenting orographic effects is forecast to support isolated to scattered thunderstorms late this afternoon across the higher terrain over northern WY and southern MT. The stronger evaporatively cooled downdrafts will be potentially capable of isolated severe gusts (60-70 mph). ...Southeast... Low-level convergence in the vicinity of a weakening cold front and ample low-level moisture will support widespread thunderstorm development across the Southeast. Thunderstorm coverage will likely be maximized over southern AL, southern GA, and FL Panhandle/northern FL. Vertical shear is very weak, with a pulse, multicellular storm mode anticipated. Water-loaded downdrafts may yield strong to locally severe gusts (50-60 mph) capable of pockets of wind damage during the afternoon and early evening. ...Northern Great Basin... A low-amplitude mid-level trough moving east across the northern NV border region will be the impetus for scattered afternoon and early evening thunderstorms. Forecast soundings show very steep low and mid-level lapse rates and scant buoyancy during the 21-02 UTC period. Eastward-moving cells and coalesced outflow will yield a risk for severe gusts (60-70 mph) with the stronger dry microbursts. Read more