Severe Storms

WW 0572 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0572 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

MD 1884 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY FOR THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
Mesoscale Discussion 1884 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0307 PM CDT Mon Aug 04 2025 Areas affected...the central High Plains Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely Valid 042007Z - 042200Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Isolated supercells capable of very large hail, severe gusts, and a brief tornado or two are possible across parts of the central High Plains. A single or pair of Severe Thunderstorm Watches will likely be needed. DISCUSSION...Widely scattered high-based CU/CBs have been noted from the Laramie Mountains to Pikes Peak, with isolated development along the South Platte and AR Valleys in eastern CO. Much of this initial activity is occurring where surface dew point depressions of 35-45 F are common. This suggests convection may struggle to rapidly intensify, but should gradually strengthen into early evening. Farther east, the western extent of low to mid 60s surface dewpoints exists across far eastern CO, yielding much more ample MLCAPE. Most guidance suggests at least one storm should become sustained in southeast CO over the AR Valley and could be a longer-lasting supercell given the environment. Otherwise, the higher-based convection to the west and northwest will probably consist of outflow-dominated supercell structures with a mix of sporadic large hail and severe gusts. ..Grams/Smith.. 08/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LBF...DDC...UNR...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...CYS... LAT...LON 37650346 39770418 40910460 42590500 42990461 43100391 42710323 41340222 39960202 38280179 37150185 36940244 37050295 37650346 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN Read more

WW 0571 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 571 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..JEWELL..08/04/25 ATTN...WFO...GLD...BOU...LBF...CYS... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 571 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC017-063-073-075-087-095-115-121-125-042240- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE KIT CARSON LINCOLN LOGAN MORGAN PHILLIPS SEDGWICK WASHINGTON YUMA KSC023-181-042240- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE SHERMAN NEC005-007-013-029-033-045-049-057-069-075-101-105-123-135-157- 161-165-042240- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARTHUR BANNER BOX BUTTE CHASE CHEYENNE DAWES Read more

WW 0571 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 571 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..JEWELL..08/04/25 ATTN...WFO...GLD...BOU...LBF...CYS... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 571 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC017-063-073-075-087-095-115-121-125-042240- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE KIT CARSON LINCOLN LOGAN MORGAN PHILLIPS SEDGWICK WASHINGTON YUMA KSC023-181-042240- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE SHERMAN NEC005-007-013-029-033-045-049-057-069-075-101-105-123-135-157- 161-165-042240- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARTHUR BANNER BOX BUTTE CHASE CHEYENNE DAWES Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 PM CDT Mon Aug 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 121200Z An upper-level ridge will continue to build into the Southwest through at least D4/Thursday and remain quasi-stationary thereafter. An upper-level trough will enter the Pacific Northwest by D4/Thursday and traverse the Northern Rockies through D7/Saturday. ...Great Basin/Southwest/Rocky Mountains: Day 3/Wednesday - Day 5/Friday... As enhanced upper-level flow overspreads the region, diurnally driven heating/mixing will result in increasing potential for critical fire-weather conditions each day, amid a dry antecedent airmass and critically dry fuels. On D3/D4, 70% probabilities have been confined to areas where sustained winds of 20-30 mph appear probable, with D4/Thursday appearing to have the most widespread potential in advance of an approaching cold front. On D5/Friday, 70% probabilities were considered, but 40% have been maintained given uncertainty among medium-rand guidance in the placement of the cold front. By D6/Saturday the cold front is expected to traverse the region, though a small region of potential elevated to critical conditions may remain ahead of the front. For now, have excluded the introduction of 40% probabilities until details of the frontal position become more certain. Thereafter, generally weak flow aloft is expected, along with hot/dry conditions, but given a lack of appreciable surface wind speeds, potential appears too low to introduce probabilities for D7/D8. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Subtropical moisture beneath the upper-level ridge will continue to build into portions of the Southwest, leading to increasing chances for isolated dry thunderstorms. Therefore, 10% probabilities have been introduced for portions northeast Arizona, northwest New Mexico, and southwest Colorado on D3/Wednesday. For D4/Thursday and beyond potential will exist for dry thunderstorm development across a similar region and into peripheral areas, though the spatial details remain too uncertain to introduce additional highlights. ..Karstens.. 08/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 PM CDT Mon Aug 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 121200Z An upper-level ridge will continue to build into the Southwest through at least D4/Thursday and remain quasi-stationary thereafter. An upper-level trough will enter the Pacific Northwest by D4/Thursday and traverse the Northern Rockies through D7/Saturday. ...Great Basin/Southwest/Rocky Mountains: Day 3/Wednesday - Day 5/Friday... As enhanced upper-level flow overspreads the region, diurnally driven heating/mixing will result in increasing potential for critical fire-weather conditions each day, amid a dry antecedent airmass and critically dry fuels. On D3/D4, 70% probabilities have been confined to areas where sustained winds of 20-30 mph appear probable, with D4/Thursday appearing to have the most widespread potential in advance of an approaching cold front. On D5/Friday, 70% probabilities were considered, but 40% have been maintained given uncertainty among medium-rand guidance in the placement of the cold front. By D6/Saturday the cold front is expected to traverse the region, though a small region of potential elevated to critical conditions may remain ahead of the front. For now, have excluded the introduction of 40% probabilities until details of the frontal position become more certain. Thereafter, generally weak flow aloft is expected, along with hot/dry conditions, but given a lack of appreciable surface wind speeds, potential appears too low to introduce probabilities for D7/D8. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Subtropical moisture beneath the upper-level ridge will continue to build into portions of the Southwest, leading to increasing chances for isolated dry thunderstorms. Therefore, 10% probabilities have been introduced for portions northeast Arizona, northwest New Mexico, and southwest Colorado on D3/Wednesday. For D4/Thursday and beyond potential will exist for dry thunderstorm development across a similar region and into peripheral areas, though the spatial details remain too uncertain to introduce additional highlights. ..Karstens.. 08/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 PM CDT Mon Aug 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 121200Z An upper-level ridge will continue to build into the Southwest through at least D4/Thursday and remain quasi-stationary thereafter. An upper-level trough will enter the Pacific Northwest by D4/Thursday and traverse the Northern Rockies through D7/Saturday. ...Great Basin/Southwest/Rocky Mountains: Day 3/Wednesday - Day 5/Friday... As enhanced upper-level flow overspreads the region, diurnally driven heating/mixing will result in increasing potential for critical fire-weather conditions each day, amid a dry antecedent airmass and critically dry fuels. On D3/D4, 70% probabilities have been confined to areas where sustained winds of 20-30 mph appear probable, with D4/Thursday appearing to have the most widespread potential in advance of an approaching cold front. On D5/Friday, 70% probabilities were considered, but 40% have been maintained given uncertainty among medium-rand guidance in the placement of the cold front. By D6/Saturday the cold front is expected to traverse the region, though a small region of potential elevated to critical conditions may remain ahead of the front. For now, have excluded the introduction of 40% probabilities until details of the frontal position become more certain. Thereafter, generally weak flow aloft is expected, along with hot/dry conditions, but given a lack of appreciable surface wind speeds, potential appears too low to introduce probabilities for D7/D8. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Subtropical moisture beneath the upper-level ridge will continue to build into portions of the Southwest, leading to increasing chances for isolated dry thunderstorms. Therefore, 10% probabilities have been introduced for portions northeast Arizona, northwest New Mexico, and southwest Colorado on D3/Wednesday. For D4/Thursday and beyond potential will exist for dry thunderstorm development across a similar region and into peripheral areas, though the spatial details remain too uncertain to introduce additional highlights. ..Karstens.. 08/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 PM CDT Mon Aug 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 121200Z An upper-level ridge will continue to build into the Southwest through at least D4/Thursday and remain quasi-stationary thereafter. An upper-level trough will enter the Pacific Northwest by D4/Thursday and traverse the Northern Rockies through D7/Saturday. ...Great Basin/Southwest/Rocky Mountains: Day 3/Wednesday - Day 5/Friday... As enhanced upper-level flow overspreads the region, diurnally driven heating/mixing will result in increasing potential for critical fire-weather conditions each day, amid a dry antecedent airmass and critically dry fuels. On D3/D4, 70% probabilities have been confined to areas where sustained winds of 20-30 mph appear probable, with D4/Thursday appearing to have the most widespread potential in advance of an approaching cold front. On D5/Friday, 70% probabilities were considered, but 40% have been maintained given uncertainty among medium-rand guidance in the placement of the cold front. By D6/Saturday the cold front is expected to traverse the region, though a small region of potential elevated to critical conditions may remain ahead of the front. For now, have excluded the introduction of 40% probabilities until details of the frontal position become more certain. Thereafter, generally weak flow aloft is expected, along with hot/dry conditions, but given a lack of appreciable surface wind speeds, potential appears too low to introduce probabilities for D7/D8. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Subtropical moisture beneath the upper-level ridge will continue to build into portions of the Southwest, leading to increasing chances for isolated dry thunderstorms. Therefore, 10% probabilities have been introduced for portions northeast Arizona, northwest New Mexico, and southwest Colorado on D3/Wednesday. For D4/Thursday and beyond potential will exist for dry thunderstorm development across a similar region and into peripheral areas, though the spatial details remain too uncertain to introduce additional highlights. ..Karstens.. 08/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 PM CDT Mon Aug 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 121200Z An upper-level ridge will continue to build into the Southwest through at least D4/Thursday and remain quasi-stationary thereafter. An upper-level trough will enter the Pacific Northwest by D4/Thursday and traverse the Northern Rockies through D7/Saturday. ...Great Basin/Southwest/Rocky Mountains: Day 3/Wednesday - Day 5/Friday... As enhanced upper-level flow overspreads the region, diurnally driven heating/mixing will result in increasing potential for critical fire-weather conditions each day, amid a dry antecedent airmass and critically dry fuels. On D3/D4, 70% probabilities have been confined to areas where sustained winds of 20-30 mph appear probable, with D4/Thursday appearing to have the most widespread potential in advance of an approaching cold front. On D5/Friday, 70% probabilities were considered, but 40% have been maintained given uncertainty among medium-rand guidance in the placement of the cold front. By D6/Saturday the cold front is expected to traverse the region, though a small region of potential elevated to critical conditions may remain ahead of the front. For now, have excluded the introduction of 40% probabilities until details of the frontal position become more certain. Thereafter, generally weak flow aloft is expected, along with hot/dry conditions, but given a lack of appreciable surface wind speeds, potential appears too low to introduce probabilities for D7/D8. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Subtropical moisture beneath the upper-level ridge will continue to build into portions of the Southwest, leading to increasing chances for isolated dry thunderstorms. Therefore, 10% probabilities have been introduced for portions northeast Arizona, northwest New Mexico, and southwest Colorado on D3/Wednesday. For D4/Thursday and beyond potential will exist for dry thunderstorm development across a similar region and into peripheral areas, though the spatial details remain too uncertain to introduce additional highlights. ..Karstens.. 08/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 PM CDT Mon Aug 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 121200Z An upper-level ridge will continue to build into the Southwest through at least D4/Thursday and remain quasi-stationary thereafter. An upper-level trough will enter the Pacific Northwest by D4/Thursday and traverse the Northern Rockies through D7/Saturday. ...Great Basin/Southwest/Rocky Mountains: Day 3/Wednesday - Day 5/Friday... As enhanced upper-level flow overspreads the region, diurnally driven heating/mixing will result in increasing potential for critical fire-weather conditions each day, amid a dry antecedent airmass and critically dry fuels. On D3/D4, 70% probabilities have been confined to areas where sustained winds of 20-30 mph appear probable, with D4/Thursday appearing to have the most widespread potential in advance of an approaching cold front. On D5/Friday, 70% probabilities were considered, but 40% have been maintained given uncertainty among medium-rand guidance in the placement of the cold front. By D6/Saturday the cold front is expected to traverse the region, though a small region of potential elevated to critical conditions may remain ahead of the front. For now, have excluded the introduction of 40% probabilities until details of the frontal position become more certain. Thereafter, generally weak flow aloft is expected, along with hot/dry conditions, but given a lack of appreciable surface wind speeds, potential appears too low to introduce probabilities for D7/D8. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Subtropical moisture beneath the upper-level ridge will continue to build into portions of the Southwest, leading to increasing chances for isolated dry thunderstorms. Therefore, 10% probabilities have been introduced for portions northeast Arizona, northwest New Mexico, and southwest Colorado on D3/Wednesday. For D4/Thursday and beyond potential will exist for dry thunderstorm development across a similar region and into peripheral areas, though the spatial details remain too uncertain to introduce additional highlights. ..Karstens.. 08/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 PM CDT Mon Aug 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 121200Z An upper-level ridge will continue to build into the Southwest through at least D4/Thursday and remain quasi-stationary thereafter. An upper-level trough will enter the Pacific Northwest by D4/Thursday and traverse the Northern Rockies through D7/Saturday. ...Great Basin/Southwest/Rocky Mountains: Day 3/Wednesday - Day 5/Friday... As enhanced upper-level flow overspreads the region, diurnally driven heating/mixing will result in increasing potential for critical fire-weather conditions each day, amid a dry antecedent airmass and critically dry fuels. On D3/D4, 70% probabilities have been confined to areas where sustained winds of 20-30 mph appear probable, with D4/Thursday appearing to have the most widespread potential in advance of an approaching cold front. On D5/Friday, 70% probabilities were considered, but 40% have been maintained given uncertainty among medium-rand guidance in the placement of the cold front. By D6/Saturday the cold front is expected to traverse the region, though a small region of potential elevated to critical conditions may remain ahead of the front. For now, have excluded the introduction of 40% probabilities until details of the frontal position become more certain. Thereafter, generally weak flow aloft is expected, along with hot/dry conditions, but given a lack of appreciable surface wind speeds, potential appears too low to introduce probabilities for D7/D8. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Subtropical moisture beneath the upper-level ridge will continue to build into portions of the Southwest, leading to increasing chances for isolated dry thunderstorms. Therefore, 10% probabilities have been introduced for portions northeast Arizona, northwest New Mexico, and southwest Colorado on D3/Wednesday. For D4/Thursday and beyond potential will exist for dry thunderstorm development across a similar region and into peripheral areas, though the spatial details remain too uncertain to introduce additional highlights. ..Karstens.. 08/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 PM CDT Mon Aug 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 121200Z An upper-level ridge will continue to build into the Southwest through at least D4/Thursday and remain quasi-stationary thereafter. An upper-level trough will enter the Pacific Northwest by D4/Thursday and traverse the Northern Rockies through D7/Saturday. ...Great Basin/Southwest/Rocky Mountains: Day 3/Wednesday - Day 5/Friday... As enhanced upper-level flow overspreads the region, diurnally driven heating/mixing will result in increasing potential for critical fire-weather conditions each day, amid a dry antecedent airmass and critically dry fuels. On D3/D4, 70% probabilities have been confined to areas where sustained winds of 20-30 mph appear probable, with D4/Thursday appearing to have the most widespread potential in advance of an approaching cold front. On D5/Friday, 70% probabilities were considered, but 40% have been maintained given uncertainty among medium-rand guidance in the placement of the cold front. By D6/Saturday the cold front is expected to traverse the region, though a small region of potential elevated to critical conditions may remain ahead of the front. For now, have excluded the introduction of 40% probabilities until details of the frontal position become more certain. Thereafter, generally weak flow aloft is expected, along with hot/dry conditions, but given a lack of appreciable surface wind speeds, potential appears too low to introduce probabilities for D7/D8. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Subtropical moisture beneath the upper-level ridge will continue to build into portions of the Southwest, leading to increasing chances for isolated dry thunderstorms. Therefore, 10% probabilities have been introduced for portions northeast Arizona, northwest New Mexico, and southwest Colorado on D3/Wednesday. For D4/Thursday and beyond potential will exist for dry thunderstorm development across a similar region and into peripheral areas, though the spatial details remain too uncertain to introduce additional highlights. ..Karstens.. 08/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 PM CDT Mon Aug 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 121200Z An upper-level ridge will continue to build into the Southwest through at least D4/Thursday and remain quasi-stationary thereafter. An upper-level trough will enter the Pacific Northwest by D4/Thursday and traverse the Northern Rockies through D7/Saturday. ...Great Basin/Southwest/Rocky Mountains: Day 3/Wednesday - Day 5/Friday... As enhanced upper-level flow overspreads the region, diurnally driven heating/mixing will result in increasing potential for critical fire-weather conditions each day, amid a dry antecedent airmass and critically dry fuels. On D3/D4, 70% probabilities have been confined to areas where sustained winds of 20-30 mph appear probable, with D4/Thursday appearing to have the most widespread potential in advance of an approaching cold front. On D5/Friday, 70% probabilities were considered, but 40% have been maintained given uncertainty among medium-rand guidance in the placement of the cold front. By D6/Saturday the cold front is expected to traverse the region, though a small region of potential elevated to critical conditions may remain ahead of the front. For now, have excluded the introduction of 40% probabilities until details of the frontal position become more certain. Thereafter, generally weak flow aloft is expected, along with hot/dry conditions, but given a lack of appreciable surface wind speeds, potential appears too low to introduce probabilities for D7/D8. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Subtropical moisture beneath the upper-level ridge will continue to build into portions of the Southwest, leading to increasing chances for isolated dry thunderstorms. Therefore, 10% probabilities have been introduced for portions northeast Arizona, northwest New Mexico, and southwest Colorado on D3/Wednesday. For D4/Thursday and beyond potential will exist for dry thunderstorm development across a similar region and into peripheral areas, though the spatial details remain too uncertain to introduce additional highlights. ..Karstens.. 08/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 PM CDT Mon Aug 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 121200Z An upper-level ridge will continue to build into the Southwest through at least D4/Thursday and remain quasi-stationary thereafter. An upper-level trough will enter the Pacific Northwest by D4/Thursday and traverse the Northern Rockies through D7/Saturday. ...Great Basin/Southwest/Rocky Mountains: Day 3/Wednesday - Day 5/Friday... As enhanced upper-level flow overspreads the region, diurnally driven heating/mixing will result in increasing potential for critical fire-weather conditions each day, amid a dry antecedent airmass and critically dry fuels. On D3/D4, 70% probabilities have been confined to areas where sustained winds of 20-30 mph appear probable, with D4/Thursday appearing to have the most widespread potential in advance of an approaching cold front. On D5/Friday, 70% probabilities were considered, but 40% have been maintained given uncertainty among medium-rand guidance in the placement of the cold front. By D6/Saturday the cold front is expected to traverse the region, though a small region of potential elevated to critical conditions may remain ahead of the front. For now, have excluded the introduction of 40% probabilities until details of the frontal position become more certain. Thereafter, generally weak flow aloft is expected, along with hot/dry conditions, but given a lack of appreciable surface wind speeds, potential appears too low to introduce probabilities for D7/D8. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Subtropical moisture beneath the upper-level ridge will continue to build into portions of the Southwest, leading to increasing chances for isolated dry thunderstorms. Therefore, 10% probabilities have been introduced for portions northeast Arizona, northwest New Mexico, and southwest Colorado on D3/Wednesday. For D4/Thursday and beyond potential will exist for dry thunderstorm development across a similar region and into peripheral areas, though the spatial details remain too uncertain to introduce additional highlights. ..Karstens.. 08/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 PM CDT Mon Aug 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 121200Z An upper-level ridge will continue to build into the Southwest through at least D4/Thursday and remain quasi-stationary thereafter. An upper-level trough will enter the Pacific Northwest by D4/Thursday and traverse the Northern Rockies through D7/Saturday. ...Great Basin/Southwest/Rocky Mountains: Day 3/Wednesday - Day 5/Friday... As enhanced upper-level flow overspreads the region, diurnally driven heating/mixing will result in increasing potential for critical fire-weather conditions each day, amid a dry antecedent airmass and critically dry fuels. On D3/D4, 70% probabilities have been confined to areas where sustained winds of 20-30 mph appear probable, with D4/Thursday appearing to have the most widespread potential in advance of an approaching cold front. On D5/Friday, 70% probabilities were considered, but 40% have been maintained given uncertainty among medium-rand guidance in the placement of the cold front. By D6/Saturday the cold front is expected to traverse the region, though a small region of potential elevated to critical conditions may remain ahead of the front. For now, have excluded the introduction of 40% probabilities until details of the frontal position become more certain. Thereafter, generally weak flow aloft is expected, along with hot/dry conditions, but given a lack of appreciable surface wind speeds, potential appears too low to introduce probabilities for D7/D8. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Subtropical moisture beneath the upper-level ridge will continue to build into portions of the Southwest, leading to increasing chances for isolated dry thunderstorms. Therefore, 10% probabilities have been introduced for portions northeast Arizona, northwest New Mexico, and southwest Colorado on D3/Wednesday. For D4/Thursday and beyond potential will exist for dry thunderstorm development across a similar region and into peripheral areas, though the spatial details remain too uncertain to introduce additional highlights. ..Karstens.. 08/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No watches are valid as of Mon Aug 4 20:41:02 UTC 2025.

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Mon Aug 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN/CENTRAL UTAH AND FAR NORTHERN ARIZONA... An area delineating potential for isolated dry thunderstorms has been added for portions of northeast Arizona and northwest New Mexico. 12z CAM guidance suggests at least some potential for isolated thunderstorms across this region. The highlighted area has been confined to areas where fuels appear at least marginally receptive to dry lightning ignitions. Minor expansions were made along the eastern periphery of the elevated area into portions of eastern Wyoming and north-central Colorado. Elsewhere, the previous forecast appears to be on track. See the discussion below for more details. ..Karstens.. 08/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Mon Aug 04 2025/ ...Synopsis... Broad midlevel troughing will persist across the Northwest/Intermountain West, while an expansive midlevel anticyclone builds over the Southwest and southern/central Rockies. ...Great Basin into the central/northern Rockies... Between the expansive midlevel anticyclone and broad midlevel troughing, a belt of enhanced deep-layer west-southwesterly flow will persist across the Great Basin into the northern/central Rockies. Diurnal heating amid a dry antecedent air mass will yield a deeply mixed boundary layer (single-digit to lower teens RH). These dry conditions combined with 15-20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds will lead to widespread elevated fire-weather conditions, with critical conditions expected over southern/central UT into northern AZ (where the overlap of strong winds and low RH atop receptive fuels will be maximized). ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Mon Aug 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN/CENTRAL UTAH AND FAR NORTHERN ARIZONA... An area delineating potential for isolated dry thunderstorms has been added for portions of northeast Arizona and northwest New Mexico. 12z CAM guidance suggests at least some potential for isolated thunderstorms across this region. The highlighted area has been confined to areas where fuels appear at least marginally receptive to dry lightning ignitions. Minor expansions were made along the eastern periphery of the elevated area into portions of eastern Wyoming and north-central Colorado. Elsewhere, the previous forecast appears to be on track. See the discussion below for more details. ..Karstens.. 08/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Mon Aug 04 2025/ ...Synopsis... Broad midlevel troughing will persist across the Northwest/Intermountain West, while an expansive midlevel anticyclone builds over the Southwest and southern/central Rockies. ...Great Basin into the central/northern Rockies... Between the expansive midlevel anticyclone and broad midlevel troughing, a belt of enhanced deep-layer west-southwesterly flow will persist across the Great Basin into the northern/central Rockies. Diurnal heating amid a dry antecedent air mass will yield a deeply mixed boundary layer (single-digit to lower teens RH). These dry conditions combined with 15-20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds will lead to widespread elevated fire-weather conditions, with critical conditions expected over southern/central UT into northern AZ (where the overlap of strong winds and low RH atop receptive fuels will be maximized). ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Mon Aug 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN/CENTRAL UTAH AND FAR NORTHERN ARIZONA... An area delineating potential for isolated dry thunderstorms has been added for portions of northeast Arizona and northwest New Mexico. 12z CAM guidance suggests at least some potential for isolated thunderstorms across this region. The highlighted area has been confined to areas where fuels appear at least marginally receptive to dry lightning ignitions. Minor expansions were made along the eastern periphery of the elevated area into portions of eastern Wyoming and north-central Colorado. Elsewhere, the previous forecast appears to be on track. See the discussion below for more details. ..Karstens.. 08/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Mon Aug 04 2025/ ...Synopsis... Broad midlevel troughing will persist across the Northwest/Intermountain West, while an expansive midlevel anticyclone builds over the Southwest and southern/central Rockies. ...Great Basin into the central/northern Rockies... Between the expansive midlevel anticyclone and broad midlevel troughing, a belt of enhanced deep-layer west-southwesterly flow will persist across the Great Basin into the northern/central Rockies. Diurnal heating amid a dry antecedent air mass will yield a deeply mixed boundary layer (single-digit to lower teens RH). These dry conditions combined with 15-20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds will lead to widespread elevated fire-weather conditions, with critical conditions expected over southern/central UT into northern AZ (where the overlap of strong winds and low RH atop receptive fuels will be maximized). ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Mon Aug 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN/CENTRAL UTAH AND FAR NORTHERN ARIZONA... An area delineating potential for isolated dry thunderstorms has been added for portions of northeast Arizona and northwest New Mexico. 12z CAM guidance suggests at least some potential for isolated thunderstorms across this region. The highlighted area has been confined to areas where fuels appear at least marginally receptive to dry lightning ignitions. Minor expansions were made along the eastern periphery of the elevated area into portions of eastern Wyoming and north-central Colorado. Elsewhere, the previous forecast appears to be on track. See the discussion below for more details. ..Karstens.. 08/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Mon Aug 04 2025/ ...Synopsis... Broad midlevel troughing will persist across the Northwest/Intermountain West, while an expansive midlevel anticyclone builds over the Southwest and southern/central Rockies. ...Great Basin into the central/northern Rockies... Between the expansive midlevel anticyclone and broad midlevel troughing, a belt of enhanced deep-layer west-southwesterly flow will persist across the Great Basin into the northern/central Rockies. Diurnal heating amid a dry antecedent air mass will yield a deeply mixed boundary layer (single-digit to lower teens RH). These dry conditions combined with 15-20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds will lead to widespread elevated fire-weather conditions, with critical conditions expected over southern/central UT into northern AZ (where the overlap of strong winds and low RH atop receptive fuels will be maximized). ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more