Severe Storms

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0119 PM CDT Mon Aug 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA SOUTHWARD INTO PARTS OF IOWA AND NEBRASKA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms associated with severe gusts and hail will be possible across parts of the north-central U.S. on Wednesday. ...Northern Plains/Upper Midwest... Thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing Wednesday morning across parts of MN/IA. These storms may be strong with gusty winds and hail through the morning before weakening. In the wake of morning activity, strong destabilization will occur across the eastern Dakotas, western MN, and central NE. However, large-scale upper ridging and height rises will also be occurring in this region, with limited forcing mechanisms for afternoon re-development of storms. Given the inherent uncertainties at this time range, and the favorable conditional environment, will maintain MRGL risk for now and re-evaluate in later updates. ..Hart.. 08/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0119 PM CDT Mon Aug 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA SOUTHWARD INTO PARTS OF IOWA AND NEBRASKA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms associated with severe gusts and hail will be possible across parts of the north-central U.S. on Wednesday. ...Northern Plains/Upper Midwest... Thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing Wednesday morning across parts of MN/IA. These storms may be strong with gusty winds and hail through the morning before weakening. In the wake of morning activity, strong destabilization will occur across the eastern Dakotas, western MN, and central NE. However, large-scale upper ridging and height rises will also be occurring in this region, with limited forcing mechanisms for afternoon re-development of storms. Given the inherent uncertainties at this time range, and the favorable conditional environment, will maintain MRGL risk for now and re-evaluate in later updates. ..Hart.. 08/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0119 PM CDT Mon Aug 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA SOUTHWARD INTO PARTS OF IOWA AND NEBRASKA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms associated with severe gusts and hail will be possible across parts of the north-central U.S. on Wednesday. ...Northern Plains/Upper Midwest... Thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing Wednesday morning across parts of MN/IA. These storms may be strong with gusty winds and hail through the morning before weakening. In the wake of morning activity, strong destabilization will occur across the eastern Dakotas, western MN, and central NE. However, large-scale upper ridging and height rises will also be occurring in this region, with limited forcing mechanisms for afternoon re-development of storms. Given the inherent uncertainties at this time range, and the favorable conditional environment, will maintain MRGL risk for now and re-evaluate in later updates. ..Hart.. 08/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0119 PM CDT Mon Aug 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA SOUTHWARD INTO PARTS OF IOWA AND NEBRASKA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms associated with severe gusts and hail will be possible across parts of the north-central U.S. on Wednesday. ...Northern Plains/Upper Midwest... Thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing Wednesday morning across parts of MN/IA. These storms may be strong with gusty winds and hail through the morning before weakening. In the wake of morning activity, strong destabilization will occur across the eastern Dakotas, western MN, and central NE. However, large-scale upper ridging and height rises will also be occurring in this region, with limited forcing mechanisms for afternoon re-development of storms. Given the inherent uncertainties at this time range, and the favorable conditional environment, will maintain MRGL risk for now and re-evaluate in later updates. ..Hart.. 08/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0119 PM CDT Mon Aug 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA SOUTHWARD INTO PARTS OF IOWA AND NEBRASKA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms associated with severe gusts and hail will be possible across parts of the north-central U.S. on Wednesday. ...Northern Plains/Upper Midwest... Thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing Wednesday morning across parts of MN/IA. These storms may be strong with gusty winds and hail through the morning before weakening. In the wake of morning activity, strong destabilization will occur across the eastern Dakotas, western MN, and central NE. However, large-scale upper ridging and height rises will also be occurring in this region, with limited forcing mechanisms for afternoon re-development of storms. Given the inherent uncertainties at this time range, and the favorable conditional environment, will maintain MRGL risk for now and re-evaluate in later updates. ..Hart.. 08/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0119 PM CDT Mon Aug 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA SOUTHWARD INTO PARTS OF IOWA AND NEBRASKA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms associated with severe gusts and hail will be possible across parts of the north-central U.S. on Wednesday. ...Northern Plains/Upper Midwest... Thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing Wednesday morning across parts of MN/IA. These storms may be strong with gusty winds and hail through the morning before weakening. In the wake of morning activity, strong destabilization will occur across the eastern Dakotas, western MN, and central NE. However, large-scale upper ridging and height rises will also be occurring in this region, with limited forcing mechanisms for afternoon re-development of storms. Given the inherent uncertainties at this time range, and the favorable conditional environment, will maintain MRGL risk for now and re-evaluate in later updates. ..Hart.. 08/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0119 PM CDT Mon Aug 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA SOUTHWARD INTO PARTS OF IOWA AND NEBRASKA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms associated with severe gusts and hail will be possible across parts of the north-central U.S. on Wednesday. ...Northern Plains/Upper Midwest... Thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing Wednesday morning across parts of MN/IA. These storms may be strong with gusty winds and hail through the morning before weakening. In the wake of morning activity, strong destabilization will occur across the eastern Dakotas, western MN, and central NE. However, large-scale upper ridging and height rises will also be occurring in this region, with limited forcing mechanisms for afternoon re-development of storms. Given the inherent uncertainties at this time range, and the favorable conditional environment, will maintain MRGL risk for now and re-evaluate in later updates. ..Hart.. 08/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 PM CDT Mon Aug 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY OVER PARTS OF NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with a threat for severe gusts and isolated large hail will be possible across parts of the Dakotas on Tuesday. ...Dakotas... A prominent shortwave trough now over northern CA/southern OR will track northeastward and top the upper ridge on Tuesday. An associated cold front will sag southeastward across MT and into western ND by afternoon, promoting the development of scattered thunderstorms. Models are in general agreement that rapid destabilization will occur in the wake of morning clouds/precip, with MLCAPE values of 2500+ J/kg across a broad region of the Dakotas and northern NE. The storms that form along the front will likely become supercellular with a risk of large hail and perhaps a tornado or two. Activity is expected to organize upscale by early evening, tracking across the Dakotas and northern NE with a continued risk of damaging winds and hail. ..Hart.. 08/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 PM CDT Mon Aug 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY OVER PARTS OF NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with a threat for severe gusts and isolated large hail will be possible across parts of the Dakotas on Tuesday. ...Dakotas... A prominent shortwave trough now over northern CA/southern OR will track northeastward and top the upper ridge on Tuesday. An associated cold front will sag southeastward across MT and into western ND by afternoon, promoting the development of scattered thunderstorms. Models are in general agreement that rapid destabilization will occur in the wake of morning clouds/precip, with MLCAPE values of 2500+ J/kg across a broad region of the Dakotas and northern NE. The storms that form along the front will likely become supercellular with a risk of large hail and perhaps a tornado or two. Activity is expected to organize upscale by early evening, tracking across the Dakotas and northern NE with a continued risk of damaging winds and hail. ..Hart.. 08/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 PM CDT Mon Aug 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY OVER PARTS OF NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with a threat for severe gusts and isolated large hail will be possible across parts of the Dakotas on Tuesday. ...Dakotas... A prominent shortwave trough now over northern CA/southern OR will track northeastward and top the upper ridge on Tuesday. An associated cold front will sag southeastward across MT and into western ND by afternoon, promoting the development of scattered thunderstorms. Models are in general agreement that rapid destabilization will occur in the wake of morning clouds/precip, with MLCAPE values of 2500+ J/kg across a broad region of the Dakotas and northern NE. The storms that form along the front will likely become supercellular with a risk of large hail and perhaps a tornado or two. Activity is expected to organize upscale by early evening, tracking across the Dakotas and northern NE with a continued risk of damaging winds and hail. ..Hart.. 08/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 PM CDT Mon Aug 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY OVER PARTS OF NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with a threat for severe gusts and isolated large hail will be possible across parts of the Dakotas on Tuesday. ...Dakotas... A prominent shortwave trough now over northern CA/southern OR will track northeastward and top the upper ridge on Tuesday. An associated cold front will sag southeastward across MT and into western ND by afternoon, promoting the development of scattered thunderstorms. Models are in general agreement that rapid destabilization will occur in the wake of morning clouds/precip, with MLCAPE values of 2500+ J/kg across a broad region of the Dakotas and northern NE. The storms that form along the front will likely become supercellular with a risk of large hail and perhaps a tornado or two. Activity is expected to organize upscale by early evening, tracking across the Dakotas and northern NE with a continued risk of damaging winds and hail. ..Hart.. 08/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 PM CDT Mon Aug 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY OVER PARTS OF NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with a threat for severe gusts and isolated large hail will be possible across parts of the Dakotas on Tuesday. ...Dakotas... A prominent shortwave trough now over northern CA/southern OR will track northeastward and top the upper ridge on Tuesday. An associated cold front will sag southeastward across MT and into western ND by afternoon, promoting the development of scattered thunderstorms. Models are in general agreement that rapid destabilization will occur in the wake of morning clouds/precip, with MLCAPE values of 2500+ J/kg across a broad region of the Dakotas and northern NE. The storms that form along the front will likely become supercellular with a risk of large hail and perhaps a tornado or two. Activity is expected to organize upscale by early evening, tracking across the Dakotas and northern NE with a continued risk of damaging winds and hail. ..Hart.. 08/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 PM CDT Mon Aug 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY OVER PARTS OF NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with a threat for severe gusts and isolated large hail will be possible across parts of the Dakotas on Tuesday. ...Dakotas... A prominent shortwave trough now over northern CA/southern OR will track northeastward and top the upper ridge on Tuesday. An associated cold front will sag southeastward across MT and into western ND by afternoon, promoting the development of scattered thunderstorms. Models are in general agreement that rapid destabilization will occur in the wake of morning clouds/precip, with MLCAPE values of 2500+ J/kg across a broad region of the Dakotas and northern NE. The storms that form along the front will likely become supercellular with a risk of large hail and perhaps a tornado or two. Activity is expected to organize upscale by early evening, tracking across the Dakotas and northern NE with a continued risk of damaging winds and hail. ..Hart.. 08/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 PM CDT Mon Aug 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY OVER PARTS OF NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with a threat for severe gusts and isolated large hail will be possible across parts of the Dakotas on Tuesday. ...Dakotas... A prominent shortwave trough now over northern CA/southern OR will track northeastward and top the upper ridge on Tuesday. An associated cold front will sag southeastward across MT and into western ND by afternoon, promoting the development of scattered thunderstorms. Models are in general agreement that rapid destabilization will occur in the wake of morning clouds/precip, with MLCAPE values of 2500+ J/kg across a broad region of the Dakotas and northern NE. The storms that form along the front will likely become supercellular with a risk of large hail and perhaps a tornado or two. Activity is expected to organize upscale by early evening, tracking across the Dakotas and northern NE with a continued risk of damaging winds and hail. ..Hart.. 08/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 PM CDT Mon Aug 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY OVER PARTS OF NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with a threat for severe gusts and isolated large hail will be possible across parts of the Dakotas on Tuesday. ...Dakotas... A prominent shortwave trough now over northern CA/southern OR will track northeastward and top the upper ridge on Tuesday. An associated cold front will sag southeastward across MT and into western ND by afternoon, promoting the development of scattered thunderstorms. Models are in general agreement that rapid destabilization will occur in the wake of morning clouds/precip, with MLCAPE values of 2500+ J/kg across a broad region of the Dakotas and northern NE. The storms that form along the front will likely become supercellular with a risk of large hail and perhaps a tornado or two. Activity is expected to organize upscale by early evening, tracking across the Dakotas and northern NE with a continued risk of damaging winds and hail. ..Hart.. 08/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 PM CDT Mon Aug 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY OVER PARTS OF NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with a threat for severe gusts and isolated large hail will be possible across parts of the Dakotas on Tuesday. ...Dakotas... A prominent shortwave trough now over northern CA/southern OR will track northeastward and top the upper ridge on Tuesday. An associated cold front will sag southeastward across MT and into western ND by afternoon, promoting the development of scattered thunderstorms. Models are in general agreement that rapid destabilization will occur in the wake of morning clouds/precip, with MLCAPE values of 2500+ J/kg across a broad region of the Dakotas and northern NE. The storms that form along the front will likely become supercellular with a risk of large hail and perhaps a tornado or two. Activity is expected to organize upscale by early evening, tracking across the Dakotas and northern NE with a continued risk of damaging winds and hail. ..Hart.. 08/04/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1138 AM CDT Mon Aug 04 2025 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES... A minor expansion of the area delineating potential for isolated dry thunderstorms was made into parts of far northern Nevada and central Oregon. Some potential for scattered dry thunderstorms exists within this region, though confined to areas where fuels appear more marginally receptive to dry lightning ignitions. The balance of the previous forecast generally remains on track. Breezy northwest winds across portions of northwest California may result in brief/localized elevated conditions. Otherwise, see the discussion below for more details. ..Karstens.. 08/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Mon Aug 04 2025/ ...Synopsis... Along the northwestern periphery of a large-scale ridge extending from the Southwest into the northern Plains, a compact/robust midlevel trough will advance east-northeastward from the Northwest into the northern Rockies during the day. ...Great Basin into the central Rockies... Between the large-scale ridge and midlevel trough, a belt of moderate deep-layer west-southwesterly flow will overspread the Great Basin into the central Rockies through the afternoon. Here, deep boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will favor widespread single-digit RH and 15-25 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds. These dry/windy conditions will lead to critical fire-weather conditions across much of UT and adjacent states, given very receptive fuels. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Intermountain West/Northern Rockies... Strong/focused forcing for ascent accompanying the midlevel trough will aid in thunderstorm development across much of the Intermountain West and northern Rockies throughout the day. Along the southern periphery of deeper midlevel moisture across parts of the Northwest into the northern Rockies, isolated high-based thunderstorms are expected in an air mass characterized by 0.60-0.75 inch PW and inverted-V soundings. This will promote mostly dry thunderstorms with a risk of lightning-induced ignitions and strong-severe outflow winds. Reference the SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook for information on the severe risk. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1138 AM CDT Mon Aug 04 2025 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES... A minor expansion of the area delineating potential for isolated dry thunderstorms was made into parts of far northern Nevada and central Oregon. Some potential for scattered dry thunderstorms exists within this region, though confined to areas where fuels appear more marginally receptive to dry lightning ignitions. The balance of the previous forecast generally remains on track. Breezy northwest winds across portions of northwest California may result in brief/localized elevated conditions. Otherwise, see the discussion below for more details. ..Karstens.. 08/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Mon Aug 04 2025/ ...Synopsis... Along the northwestern periphery of a large-scale ridge extending from the Southwest into the northern Plains, a compact/robust midlevel trough will advance east-northeastward from the Northwest into the northern Rockies during the day. ...Great Basin into the central Rockies... Between the large-scale ridge and midlevel trough, a belt of moderate deep-layer west-southwesterly flow will overspread the Great Basin into the central Rockies through the afternoon. Here, deep boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will favor widespread single-digit RH and 15-25 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds. These dry/windy conditions will lead to critical fire-weather conditions across much of UT and adjacent states, given very receptive fuels. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Intermountain West/Northern Rockies... Strong/focused forcing for ascent accompanying the midlevel trough will aid in thunderstorm development across much of the Intermountain West and northern Rockies throughout the day. Along the southern periphery of deeper midlevel moisture across parts of the Northwest into the northern Rockies, isolated high-based thunderstorms are expected in an air mass characterized by 0.60-0.75 inch PW and inverted-V soundings. This will promote mostly dry thunderstorms with a risk of lightning-induced ignitions and strong-severe outflow winds. Reference the SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook for information on the severe risk. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1138 AM CDT Mon Aug 04 2025 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES... A minor expansion of the area delineating potential for isolated dry thunderstorms was made into parts of far northern Nevada and central Oregon. Some potential for scattered dry thunderstorms exists within this region, though confined to areas where fuels appear more marginally receptive to dry lightning ignitions. The balance of the previous forecast generally remains on track. Breezy northwest winds across portions of northwest California may result in brief/localized elevated conditions. Otherwise, see the discussion below for more details. ..Karstens.. 08/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Mon Aug 04 2025/ ...Synopsis... Along the northwestern periphery of a large-scale ridge extending from the Southwest into the northern Plains, a compact/robust midlevel trough will advance east-northeastward from the Northwest into the northern Rockies during the day. ...Great Basin into the central Rockies... Between the large-scale ridge and midlevel trough, a belt of moderate deep-layer west-southwesterly flow will overspread the Great Basin into the central Rockies through the afternoon. Here, deep boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will favor widespread single-digit RH and 15-25 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds. These dry/windy conditions will lead to critical fire-weather conditions across much of UT and adjacent states, given very receptive fuels. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Intermountain West/Northern Rockies... Strong/focused forcing for ascent accompanying the midlevel trough will aid in thunderstorm development across much of the Intermountain West and northern Rockies throughout the day. Along the southern periphery of deeper midlevel moisture across parts of the Northwest into the northern Rockies, isolated high-based thunderstorms are expected in an air mass characterized by 0.60-0.75 inch PW and inverted-V soundings. This will promote mostly dry thunderstorms with a risk of lightning-induced ignitions and strong-severe outflow winds. Reference the SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook for information on the severe risk. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1138 AM CDT Mon Aug 04 2025 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES... A minor expansion of the area delineating potential for isolated dry thunderstorms was made into parts of far northern Nevada and central Oregon. Some potential for scattered dry thunderstorms exists within this region, though confined to areas where fuels appear more marginally receptive to dry lightning ignitions. The balance of the previous forecast generally remains on track. Breezy northwest winds across portions of northwest California may result in brief/localized elevated conditions. Otherwise, see the discussion below for more details. ..Karstens.. 08/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Mon Aug 04 2025/ ...Synopsis... Along the northwestern periphery of a large-scale ridge extending from the Southwest into the northern Plains, a compact/robust midlevel trough will advance east-northeastward from the Northwest into the northern Rockies during the day. ...Great Basin into the central Rockies... Between the large-scale ridge and midlevel trough, a belt of moderate deep-layer west-southwesterly flow will overspread the Great Basin into the central Rockies through the afternoon. Here, deep boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will favor widespread single-digit RH and 15-25 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds. These dry/windy conditions will lead to critical fire-weather conditions across much of UT and adjacent states, given very receptive fuels. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Intermountain West/Northern Rockies... Strong/focused forcing for ascent accompanying the midlevel trough will aid in thunderstorm development across much of the Intermountain West and northern Rockies throughout the day. Along the southern periphery of deeper midlevel moisture across parts of the Northwest into the northern Rockies, isolated high-based thunderstorms are expected in an air mass characterized by 0.60-0.75 inch PW and inverted-V soundings. This will promote mostly dry thunderstorms with a risk of lightning-induced ignitions and strong-severe outflow winds. Reference the SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook for information on the severe risk. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more