Severe Storms

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0403 AM CDT Mon Aug 04 2025 Valid 071200Z - 121200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Thursday/Day 4 to Saturday/Day 6... During the late week time-frame, a mid-level trough is forecast to develop over the Pacific Northwest and move eastward into the northern Plains. As the system approaches, a moist and unstable airmass is forecast across the northern Plains and upper Mississippi Valley. On Thursday, a lead shortwave trough is forecast to move across the northern Plains. Large-scale ascent associated with the trough could result in a cluster of storms with an isolated severe threat from Thursday evening into the overnight period. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms may again develop Friday afternoon and evening, as the exit region of a mid-level jet moves across the northern Plains. As instability becomes maximized on Friday afternoon, a severe threat will be possible across parts of the Dakotas and Minnesota. Large hail and severe gusts will be the primary threats. The models are in reasonably good agreement on the timing of the mid-level system. For this reason, have added a 15 percent into the northern Plains to coincide with the projected locations of the instability axis and mid-level jet. On Saturday, the mid-level trough is forecast to move into the northern Plains, as a belt of southwesterly flow shifts eastward across the Upper Midwest. Thunderstorm development will be possible in the afternoon and evening, to the east of a front within an unstable airmass in the upper Mississippi Valley. Moderate deep-layer shear will again support an isolated severe threat across the region. ...Sunday/Day 7 and Monday/Day 8... The front is forecast to move southeastward into the upper Mississippi Valley on Sunday. This will favor thunderstorm development along a corridor from Iowa northeastward into Wisconsin, where an isolated severe threat will be possible in the afternoon and evening. On Monday, forecasts suggest the instability axis will remain in a similar location. For this reason, a severe threat could again affect this same corridor. Due to the extended range in the forecast, there is some uncertainty concerning this scenario early next week. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0403 AM CDT Mon Aug 04 2025 Valid 071200Z - 121200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Thursday/Day 4 to Saturday/Day 6... During the late week time-frame, a mid-level trough is forecast to develop over the Pacific Northwest and move eastward into the northern Plains. As the system approaches, a moist and unstable airmass is forecast across the northern Plains and upper Mississippi Valley. On Thursday, a lead shortwave trough is forecast to move across the northern Plains. Large-scale ascent associated with the trough could result in a cluster of storms with an isolated severe threat from Thursday evening into the overnight period. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms may again develop Friday afternoon and evening, as the exit region of a mid-level jet moves across the northern Plains. As instability becomes maximized on Friday afternoon, a severe threat will be possible across parts of the Dakotas and Minnesota. Large hail and severe gusts will be the primary threats. The models are in reasonably good agreement on the timing of the mid-level system. For this reason, have added a 15 percent into the northern Plains to coincide with the projected locations of the instability axis and mid-level jet. On Saturday, the mid-level trough is forecast to move into the northern Plains, as a belt of southwesterly flow shifts eastward across the Upper Midwest. Thunderstorm development will be possible in the afternoon and evening, to the east of a front within an unstable airmass in the upper Mississippi Valley. Moderate deep-layer shear will again support an isolated severe threat across the region. ...Sunday/Day 7 and Monday/Day 8... The front is forecast to move southeastward into the upper Mississippi Valley on Sunday. This will favor thunderstorm development along a corridor from Iowa northeastward into Wisconsin, where an isolated severe threat will be possible in the afternoon and evening. On Monday, forecasts suggest the instability axis will remain in a similar location. For this reason, a severe threat could again affect this same corridor. Due to the extended range in the forecast, there is some uncertainty concerning this scenario early next week. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0403 AM CDT Mon Aug 04 2025 Valid 071200Z - 121200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Thursday/Day 4 to Saturday/Day 6... During the late week time-frame, a mid-level trough is forecast to develop over the Pacific Northwest and move eastward into the northern Plains. As the system approaches, a moist and unstable airmass is forecast across the northern Plains and upper Mississippi Valley. On Thursday, a lead shortwave trough is forecast to move across the northern Plains. Large-scale ascent associated with the trough could result in a cluster of storms with an isolated severe threat from Thursday evening into the overnight period. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms may again develop Friday afternoon and evening, as the exit region of a mid-level jet moves across the northern Plains. As instability becomes maximized on Friday afternoon, a severe threat will be possible across parts of the Dakotas and Minnesota. Large hail and severe gusts will be the primary threats. The models are in reasonably good agreement on the timing of the mid-level system. For this reason, have added a 15 percent into the northern Plains to coincide with the projected locations of the instability axis and mid-level jet. On Saturday, the mid-level trough is forecast to move into the northern Plains, as a belt of southwesterly flow shifts eastward across the Upper Midwest. Thunderstorm development will be possible in the afternoon and evening, to the east of a front within an unstable airmass in the upper Mississippi Valley. Moderate deep-layer shear will again support an isolated severe threat across the region. ...Sunday/Day 7 and Monday/Day 8... The front is forecast to move southeastward into the upper Mississippi Valley on Sunday. This will favor thunderstorm development along a corridor from Iowa northeastward into Wisconsin, where an isolated severe threat will be possible in the afternoon and evening. On Monday, forecasts suggest the instability axis will remain in a similar location. For this reason, a severe threat could again affect this same corridor. Due to the extended range in the forecast, there is some uncertainty concerning this scenario early next week. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0403 AM CDT Mon Aug 04 2025 Valid 071200Z - 121200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Thursday/Day 4 to Saturday/Day 6... During the late week time-frame, a mid-level trough is forecast to develop over the Pacific Northwest and move eastward into the northern Plains. As the system approaches, a moist and unstable airmass is forecast across the northern Plains and upper Mississippi Valley. On Thursday, a lead shortwave trough is forecast to move across the northern Plains. Large-scale ascent associated with the trough could result in a cluster of storms with an isolated severe threat from Thursday evening into the overnight period. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms may again develop Friday afternoon and evening, as the exit region of a mid-level jet moves across the northern Plains. As instability becomes maximized on Friday afternoon, a severe threat will be possible across parts of the Dakotas and Minnesota. Large hail and severe gusts will be the primary threats. The models are in reasonably good agreement on the timing of the mid-level system. For this reason, have added a 15 percent into the northern Plains to coincide with the projected locations of the instability axis and mid-level jet. On Saturday, the mid-level trough is forecast to move into the northern Plains, as a belt of southwesterly flow shifts eastward across the Upper Midwest. Thunderstorm development will be possible in the afternoon and evening, to the east of a front within an unstable airmass in the upper Mississippi Valley. Moderate deep-layer shear will again support an isolated severe threat across the region. ...Sunday/Day 7 and Monday/Day 8... The front is forecast to move southeastward into the upper Mississippi Valley on Sunday. This will favor thunderstorm development along a corridor from Iowa northeastward into Wisconsin, where an isolated severe threat will be possible in the afternoon and evening. On Monday, forecasts suggest the instability axis will remain in a similar location. For this reason, a severe threat could again affect this same corridor. Due to the extended range in the forecast, there is some uncertainty concerning this scenario early next week. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 AM CDT Mon Aug 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL U.S.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms associated with severe gusts and hail will be possible across parts of the north-central U.S. on Wednesday. ...Central and Northern Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley... A large-scale anticyclonic flow pattern is forecast across the central and northern U.S. on Wednesday. At the surface, a moist airmass should be located from the Great Plains into the Mississippi Valley. As surface temperatures warm on Wednesday, moderate instability is expected to develop across much of the moist airmass. Due to the anticyclonic flow pattern and lack of any shortwave trough, large-scale ascent is forecast to remain weak over much of the north-central U.S. In spite of this, isolated thunderstorms may develop in areas that heat up that most, or along pre-existing boundaries. For cells that initiate and persist, deep-layer shear may be strong enough for an isolated severe threat. A few severe gusts and hail will be possible, but any threat should remain localized. ..Broyles.. 08/04/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 AM CDT Mon Aug 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL U.S.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms associated with severe gusts and hail will be possible across parts of the north-central U.S. on Wednesday. ...Central and Northern Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley... A large-scale anticyclonic flow pattern is forecast across the central and northern U.S. on Wednesday. At the surface, a moist airmass should be located from the Great Plains into the Mississippi Valley. As surface temperatures warm on Wednesday, moderate instability is expected to develop across much of the moist airmass. Due to the anticyclonic flow pattern and lack of any shortwave trough, large-scale ascent is forecast to remain weak over much of the north-central U.S. In spite of this, isolated thunderstorms may develop in areas that heat up that most, or along pre-existing boundaries. For cells that initiate and persist, deep-layer shear may be strong enough for an isolated severe threat. A few severe gusts and hail will be possible, but any threat should remain localized. ..Broyles.. 08/04/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 AM CDT Mon Aug 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL U.S.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms associated with severe gusts and hail will be possible across parts of the north-central U.S. on Wednesday. ...Central and Northern Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley... A large-scale anticyclonic flow pattern is forecast across the central and northern U.S. on Wednesday. At the surface, a moist airmass should be located from the Great Plains into the Mississippi Valley. As surface temperatures warm on Wednesday, moderate instability is expected to develop across much of the moist airmass. Due to the anticyclonic flow pattern and lack of any shortwave trough, large-scale ascent is forecast to remain weak over much of the north-central U.S. In spite of this, isolated thunderstorms may develop in areas that heat up that most, or along pre-existing boundaries. For cells that initiate and persist, deep-layer shear may be strong enough for an isolated severe threat. A few severe gusts and hail will be possible, but any threat should remain localized. ..Broyles.. 08/04/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 AM CDT Mon Aug 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL U.S.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms associated with severe gusts and hail will be possible across parts of the north-central U.S. on Wednesday. ...Central and Northern Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley... A large-scale anticyclonic flow pattern is forecast across the central and northern U.S. on Wednesday. At the surface, a moist airmass should be located from the Great Plains into the Mississippi Valley. As surface temperatures warm on Wednesday, moderate instability is expected to develop across much of the moist airmass. Due to the anticyclonic flow pattern and lack of any shortwave trough, large-scale ascent is forecast to remain weak over much of the north-central U.S. In spite of this, isolated thunderstorms may develop in areas that heat up that most, or along pre-existing boundaries. For cells that initiate and persist, deep-layer shear may be strong enough for an isolated severe threat. A few severe gusts and hail will be possible, but any threat should remain localized. ..Broyles.. 08/04/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 AM CDT Mon Aug 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN/CENTRAL UTAH AND FAR NORTHERN ARIZONA... ...Synopsis... Broad midlevel troughing will persist across the Northwest/Intermountain West, while an expansive midlevel anticyclone builds over the Southwest and southern/central Rockies. ...Great Basin into the central/northern Rockies... Between the expansive midlevel anticyclone and broad midlevel troughing, a belt of enhanced deep-layer west-southwesterly flow will persist across the Great Basin into the northern/central Rockies. Diurnal heating amid a dry antecedent air mass will yield a deeply mixed boundary layer (single-digit to lower teens RH). These dry conditions combined with 15-20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds will lead to widespread elevated fire-weather conditions, with critical conditions expected over southern/central UT into northern AZ (where the overlap of strong winds and low RH atop receptive fuels will be maximized). ..Weinman.. 08/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 AM CDT Mon Aug 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN/CENTRAL UTAH AND FAR NORTHERN ARIZONA... ...Synopsis... Broad midlevel troughing will persist across the Northwest/Intermountain West, while an expansive midlevel anticyclone builds over the Southwest and southern/central Rockies. ...Great Basin into the central/northern Rockies... Between the expansive midlevel anticyclone and broad midlevel troughing, a belt of enhanced deep-layer west-southwesterly flow will persist across the Great Basin into the northern/central Rockies. Diurnal heating amid a dry antecedent air mass will yield a deeply mixed boundary layer (single-digit to lower teens RH). These dry conditions combined with 15-20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds will lead to widespread elevated fire-weather conditions, with critical conditions expected over southern/central UT into northern AZ (where the overlap of strong winds and low RH atop receptive fuels will be maximized). ..Weinman.. 08/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 AM CDT Mon Aug 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN/CENTRAL UTAH AND FAR NORTHERN ARIZONA... ...Synopsis... Broad midlevel troughing will persist across the Northwest/Intermountain West, while an expansive midlevel anticyclone builds over the Southwest and southern/central Rockies. ...Great Basin into the central/northern Rockies... Between the expansive midlevel anticyclone and broad midlevel troughing, a belt of enhanced deep-layer west-southwesterly flow will persist across the Great Basin into the northern/central Rockies. Diurnal heating amid a dry antecedent air mass will yield a deeply mixed boundary layer (single-digit to lower teens RH). These dry conditions combined with 15-20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds will lead to widespread elevated fire-weather conditions, with critical conditions expected over southern/central UT into northern AZ (where the overlap of strong winds and low RH atop receptive fuels will be maximized). ..Weinman.. 08/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 AM CDT Mon Aug 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN/CENTRAL UTAH AND FAR NORTHERN ARIZONA... ...Synopsis... Broad midlevel troughing will persist across the Northwest/Intermountain West, while an expansive midlevel anticyclone builds over the Southwest and southern/central Rockies. ...Great Basin into the central/northern Rockies... Between the expansive midlevel anticyclone and broad midlevel troughing, a belt of enhanced deep-layer west-southwesterly flow will persist across the Great Basin into the northern/central Rockies. Diurnal heating amid a dry antecedent air mass will yield a deeply mixed boundary layer (single-digit to lower teens RH). These dry conditions combined with 15-20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds will lead to widespread elevated fire-weather conditions, with critical conditions expected over southern/central UT into northern AZ (where the overlap of strong winds and low RH atop receptive fuels will be maximized). ..Weinman.. 08/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 AM CDT Mon Aug 04 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES... ...Synopsis... Along the northwestern periphery of a large-scale ridge extending from the Southwest into the northern Plains, a compact/robust midlevel trough will advance east-northeastward from the Northwest into the northern Rockies during the day. ...Great Basin into the central Rockies... Between the large-scale ridge and midlevel trough, a belt of moderate deep-layer west-southwesterly flow will overspread the Great Basin into the central Rockies through the afternoon. Here, deep boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will favor widespread single-digit RH and 15-25 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds. These dry/windy conditions will lead to critical fire-weather conditions across much of UT and adjacent states, given very receptive fuels. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Intermountain West/Northern Rockies... Strong/focused forcing for ascent accompanying the midlevel trough will aid in thunderstorm development across much of the Intermountain West and northern Rockies throughout the day. Along the southern periphery of deeper midlevel moisture across parts of the Northwest into the northern Rockies, isolated high-based thunderstorms are expected in an air mass characterized by 0.60-0.75 inch PW and inverted-V soundings. This will promote mostly dry thunderstorms with a risk of lightning-induced ignitions and strong-severe outflow winds. Reference the SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook for information on the severe risk. ..Weinman.. 08/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 AM CDT Mon Aug 04 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES... ...Synopsis... Along the northwestern periphery of a large-scale ridge extending from the Southwest into the northern Plains, a compact/robust midlevel trough will advance east-northeastward from the Northwest into the northern Rockies during the day. ...Great Basin into the central Rockies... Between the large-scale ridge and midlevel trough, a belt of moderate deep-layer west-southwesterly flow will overspread the Great Basin into the central Rockies through the afternoon. Here, deep boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will favor widespread single-digit RH and 15-25 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds. These dry/windy conditions will lead to critical fire-weather conditions across much of UT and adjacent states, given very receptive fuels. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Intermountain West/Northern Rockies... Strong/focused forcing for ascent accompanying the midlevel trough will aid in thunderstorm development across much of the Intermountain West and northern Rockies throughout the day. Along the southern periphery of deeper midlevel moisture across parts of the Northwest into the northern Rockies, isolated high-based thunderstorms are expected in an air mass characterized by 0.60-0.75 inch PW and inverted-V soundings. This will promote mostly dry thunderstorms with a risk of lightning-induced ignitions and strong-severe outflow winds. Reference the SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook for information on the severe risk. ..Weinman.. 08/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 AM CDT Mon Aug 04 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES... ...Synopsis... Along the northwestern periphery of a large-scale ridge extending from the Southwest into the northern Plains, a compact/robust midlevel trough will advance east-northeastward from the Northwest into the northern Rockies during the day. ...Great Basin into the central Rockies... Between the large-scale ridge and midlevel trough, a belt of moderate deep-layer west-southwesterly flow will overspread the Great Basin into the central Rockies through the afternoon. Here, deep boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will favor widespread single-digit RH and 15-25 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds. These dry/windy conditions will lead to critical fire-weather conditions across much of UT and adjacent states, given very receptive fuels. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Intermountain West/Northern Rockies... Strong/focused forcing for ascent accompanying the midlevel trough will aid in thunderstorm development across much of the Intermountain West and northern Rockies throughout the day. Along the southern periphery of deeper midlevel moisture across parts of the Northwest into the northern Rockies, isolated high-based thunderstorms are expected in an air mass characterized by 0.60-0.75 inch PW and inverted-V soundings. This will promote mostly dry thunderstorms with a risk of lightning-induced ignitions and strong-severe outflow winds. Reference the SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook for information on the severe risk. ..Weinman.. 08/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 AM CDT Mon Aug 04 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES... ...Synopsis... Along the northwestern periphery of a large-scale ridge extending from the Southwest into the northern Plains, a compact/robust midlevel trough will advance east-northeastward from the Northwest into the northern Rockies during the day. ...Great Basin into the central Rockies... Between the large-scale ridge and midlevel trough, a belt of moderate deep-layer west-southwesterly flow will overspread the Great Basin into the central Rockies through the afternoon. Here, deep boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will favor widespread single-digit RH and 15-25 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds. These dry/windy conditions will lead to critical fire-weather conditions across much of UT and adjacent states, given very receptive fuels. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Intermountain West/Northern Rockies... Strong/focused forcing for ascent accompanying the midlevel trough will aid in thunderstorm development across much of the Intermountain West and northern Rockies throughout the day. Along the southern periphery of deeper midlevel moisture across parts of the Northwest into the northern Rockies, isolated high-based thunderstorms are expected in an air mass characterized by 0.60-0.75 inch PW and inverted-V soundings. This will promote mostly dry thunderstorms with a risk of lightning-induced ignitions and strong-severe outflow winds. Reference the SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook for information on the severe risk. ..Weinman.. 08/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 1883 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 570... FOR PARTS OF SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL OK INTO FAR NORTH TX
Mesoscale Discussion 1883 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 PM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025 Areas affected...Parts of southwest/central OK into far north TX Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 570... Valid 040441Z - 040615Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 570 continues. SUMMARY...A threat for isolated strong to severe gusts and localized hail may continue into the early overnight hours. DISCUSSION...An MCS is propagating southeastward toward central OK as of 0430 UTC. Measured gusts over the last hour have generally been in the 45-55 mph range, but this system has a well-defined cold pool and could continue to pose a short-term threat for strong to locally severe gusts. Moderate buoyancy and favorable deep-layer shear could also support an isolated hail threat with any vigorous updraft development along the gust front. Recent objective analyses depict relatively weaker MLCINH and stronger instability to the southeast of this system, which may allow it to continue moving toward southern/central OK into the early overnight hours. However, somewhat weaker deep-layer shear with eastward extent and the lack of a stronger nocturnal low-level jet may tend to limit the organization of this system with time. The remaining severe threat may remain rather isolated, but trends will be continue to be monitored regarding the need for any local watch expansion or new watch issuance. ..Dean.. 08/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN... LAT...LON 35189929 35639862 36449836 36439765 35649648 34669657 33629705 33739840 34509937 34819943 35189929 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Mon Aug 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with a threat for severe gusts and isolated large hail will be possible across parts of the central and northern Plains on Tuesday. ...Central and Northern Plains... A mid-level shortwave trough will move into the northern Plains on Tuesday. At the surface, a trough is forecast to sharpen during the day across the far western Dakotas. To the east of the trough, a moist airmass will be in place across much of the northern Plains. By afternoon, a north-to-south axis of moderate instability is forecast to develop to the east of the surface trough from western Nebraska northward into the western Dakotas. Within the moist sector, model consensus suggests that MLCAPE will peak in the 2500 to 3500 J/kg range, with the overall maximum located in western South Dakota. Low-level convergence will likely increase near and to the east of the surface trough, with scattered convective initiation expected near the trough in the late afternoon. These storms should spread eastward across west-central South Dakota and southwestern North Dakota during the late afternoon and early evening. A severe threat appears likely. Forecast soundings during the late afternoon across northwestern South Dakota have supercell wind profiles, with directional shear in the low to mid-levels, and 35 to 40 knots of 0-6 km shear. In addition, 700-500 mb lapse rates are forecast to be near 8 C/km. This environment would favor isolated large hail with rotating cells that remain discrete. A potential for severe wind gusts will also be possible, mainly with short line segments that form within a larger-scale cluster. The severe threat should persist into the mid evening, and could extend southward into northern Nebraska. However, severe threat magnitude is expected to be more isolated with southward extent, mainly due to more limited large-scale ascent. Further north into parts of north-central North Dakota and westward into northeast Montana, an isolated severe threat will be possible during the late afternoon and early evening. However, the combination of instability and deep-layer shear is expected less favorable than in areas to the south. This will likely keep any severe threat localized. ..Broyles.. 08/04/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Mon Aug 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with a threat for severe gusts and isolated large hail will be possible across parts of the central and northern Plains on Tuesday. ...Central and Northern Plains... A mid-level shortwave trough will move into the northern Plains on Tuesday. At the surface, a trough is forecast to sharpen during the day across the far western Dakotas. To the east of the trough, a moist airmass will be in place across much of the northern Plains. By afternoon, a north-to-south axis of moderate instability is forecast to develop to the east of the surface trough from western Nebraska northward into the western Dakotas. Within the moist sector, model consensus suggests that MLCAPE will peak in the 2500 to 3500 J/kg range, with the overall maximum located in western South Dakota. Low-level convergence will likely increase near and to the east of the surface trough, with scattered convective initiation expected near the trough in the late afternoon. These storms should spread eastward across west-central South Dakota and southwestern North Dakota during the late afternoon and early evening. A severe threat appears likely. Forecast soundings during the late afternoon across northwestern South Dakota have supercell wind profiles, with directional shear in the low to mid-levels, and 35 to 40 knots of 0-6 km shear. In addition, 700-500 mb lapse rates are forecast to be near 8 C/km. This environment would favor isolated large hail with rotating cells that remain discrete. A potential for severe wind gusts will also be possible, mainly with short line segments that form within a larger-scale cluster. The severe threat should persist into the mid evening, and could extend southward into northern Nebraska. However, severe threat magnitude is expected to be more isolated with southward extent, mainly due to more limited large-scale ascent. Further north into parts of north-central North Dakota and westward into northeast Montana, an isolated severe threat will be possible during the late afternoon and early evening. However, the combination of instability and deep-layer shear is expected less favorable than in areas to the south. This will likely keep any severe threat localized. ..Broyles.. 08/04/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Mon Aug 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with a threat for severe gusts and isolated large hail will be possible across parts of the central and northern Plains on Tuesday. ...Central and Northern Plains... A mid-level shortwave trough will move into the northern Plains on Tuesday. At the surface, a trough is forecast to sharpen during the day across the far western Dakotas. To the east of the trough, a moist airmass will be in place across much of the northern Plains. By afternoon, a north-to-south axis of moderate instability is forecast to develop to the east of the surface trough from western Nebraska northward into the western Dakotas. Within the moist sector, model consensus suggests that MLCAPE will peak in the 2500 to 3500 J/kg range, with the overall maximum located in western South Dakota. Low-level convergence will likely increase near and to the east of the surface trough, with scattered convective initiation expected near the trough in the late afternoon. These storms should spread eastward across west-central South Dakota and southwestern North Dakota during the late afternoon and early evening. A severe threat appears likely. Forecast soundings during the late afternoon across northwestern South Dakota have supercell wind profiles, with directional shear in the low to mid-levels, and 35 to 40 knots of 0-6 km shear. In addition, 700-500 mb lapse rates are forecast to be near 8 C/km. This environment would favor isolated large hail with rotating cells that remain discrete. A potential for severe wind gusts will also be possible, mainly with short line segments that form within a larger-scale cluster. The severe threat should persist into the mid evening, and could extend southward into northern Nebraska. However, severe threat magnitude is expected to be more isolated with southward extent, mainly due to more limited large-scale ascent. Further north into parts of north-central North Dakota and westward into northeast Montana, an isolated severe threat will be possible during the late afternoon and early evening. However, the combination of instability and deep-layer shear is expected less favorable than in areas to the south. This will likely keep any severe threat localized. ..Broyles.. 08/04/2025 Read more