Severe Storms

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL U.S.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms associated with severe gusts and hail will be possible across parts of the north-central U.S. on Wednesday. ...Central and Northern Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley... An anticyclonic mid-level flow pattern with rising heights will be in place across the north-central U.S. on Wednesday, with primarily westerly flow over the northern Plains. At the surface, a moist airmass will be located from Nebraska into the Dakotas. Along the eastern edge of this moist airmass, elevated thunderstorms appear likely to be ongoing at the start of the period. These storms are expected to move eastward into the upper Mississippi Valley, as moderate to strong instability develops further to the west. Convection may initiate during the afternoon across parts of this unstable airmass, where low-level convergence is sufficient. However, convective coverage will likely remain very isolated, due to a lack of large-scale ascent. Any cell that can develop into a thunderstorm and persist could have a severe threat, due to the instability, moderate deep-layer shear and steep low to mid-level lapse rates. Hail and isolated severe gusts will be the primary threats. For this outlook, will maintain a Marginal Risk due to the conditionality of the forecast, and due to the expected isolated nature of the threat. ..Broyles.. 08/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 AM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH AND SOUTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with a threat for severe gusts and large hail will be possible across parts of the Dakotas today into this evening. ...Northern Plains... An upper shortwave trough over the northern Rockies will shift east across the Dakotas and the Canadian Prairies today/tonight. At the surface, a cold front will develop east/southeast across MT into the western Dakotas during the afternoon. Ahead of the front southeasterly low-level flow will maintain low to mid 60s dewpoints beneath steep midlevel lapse rates. This will support moderate to strong destabilization across portions of the western Dakotas and western NE (MLCAPE 2500+ J/kg), with more modest destabilization further north and east. Around 30-40 kt of mid/upper level northwesterly flow atop vertically veering low-level wind profiles will support supercell storms initially across western portions of the outlook area. This will overlap with the corridor of stronger instability and scattered storms produce large hail and strong/severe gusts will be possible. Toward evening, a 30-40 kt southerly low-level jet is expected to develop and upscale development into an MCS is possible across eastern portions of the outlook area. Forecast guidance varies regarding the degree of capping that will exist with eastward extent, but potential for an organized MCS producing strong/severe gusts appears possible across eastern SD, and may persist east/southeast toward the Mid-MO Valley during the nighttime hours. ..Leitman/Weinman.. 08/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 AM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH AND SOUTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with a threat for severe gusts and large hail will be possible across parts of the Dakotas today into this evening. ...Northern Plains... An upper shortwave trough over the northern Rockies will shift east across the Dakotas and the Canadian Prairies today/tonight. At the surface, a cold front will develop east/southeast across MT into the western Dakotas during the afternoon. Ahead of the front southeasterly low-level flow will maintain low to mid 60s dewpoints beneath steep midlevel lapse rates. This will support moderate to strong destabilization across portions of the western Dakotas and western NE (MLCAPE 2500+ J/kg), with more modest destabilization further north and east. Around 30-40 kt of mid/upper level northwesterly flow atop vertically veering low-level wind profiles will support supercell storms initially across western portions of the outlook area. This will overlap with the corridor of stronger instability and scattered storms produce large hail and strong/severe gusts will be possible. Toward evening, a 30-40 kt southerly low-level jet is expected to develop and upscale development into an MCS is possible across eastern portions of the outlook area. Forecast guidance varies regarding the degree of capping that will exist with eastward extent, but potential for an organized MCS producing strong/severe gusts appears possible across eastern SD, and may persist east/southeast toward the Mid-MO Valley during the nighttime hours. ..Leitman/Weinman.. 08/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 AM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH AND SOUTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with a threat for severe gusts and large hail will be possible across parts of the Dakotas today into this evening. ...Northern Plains... An upper shortwave trough over the northern Rockies will shift east across the Dakotas and the Canadian Prairies today/tonight. At the surface, a cold front will develop east/southeast across MT into the western Dakotas during the afternoon. Ahead of the front southeasterly low-level flow will maintain low to mid 60s dewpoints beneath steep midlevel lapse rates. This will support moderate to strong destabilization across portions of the western Dakotas and western NE (MLCAPE 2500+ J/kg), with more modest destabilization further north and east. Around 30-40 kt of mid/upper level northwesterly flow atop vertically veering low-level wind profiles will support supercell storms initially across western portions of the outlook area. This will overlap with the corridor of stronger instability and scattered storms produce large hail and strong/severe gusts will be possible. Toward evening, a 30-40 kt southerly low-level jet is expected to develop and upscale development into an MCS is possible across eastern portions of the outlook area. Forecast guidance varies regarding the degree of capping that will exist with eastward extent, but potential for an organized MCS producing strong/severe gusts appears possible across eastern SD, and may persist east/southeast toward the Mid-MO Valley during the nighttime hours. ..Leitman/Weinman.. 08/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 AM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH AND SOUTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with a threat for severe gusts and large hail will be possible across parts of the Dakotas today into this evening. ...Northern Plains... An upper shortwave trough over the northern Rockies will shift east across the Dakotas and the Canadian Prairies today/tonight. At the surface, a cold front will develop east/southeast across MT into the western Dakotas during the afternoon. Ahead of the front southeasterly low-level flow will maintain low to mid 60s dewpoints beneath steep midlevel lapse rates. This will support moderate to strong destabilization across portions of the western Dakotas and western NE (MLCAPE 2500+ J/kg), with more modest destabilization further north and east. Around 30-40 kt of mid/upper level northwesterly flow atop vertically veering low-level wind profiles will support supercell storms initially across western portions of the outlook area. This will overlap with the corridor of stronger instability and scattered storms produce large hail and strong/severe gusts will be possible. Toward evening, a 30-40 kt southerly low-level jet is expected to develop and upscale development into an MCS is possible across eastern portions of the outlook area. Forecast guidance varies regarding the degree of capping that will exist with eastward extent, but potential for an organized MCS producing strong/severe gusts appears possible across eastern SD, and may persist east/southeast toward the Mid-MO Valley during the nighttime hours. ..Leitman/Weinman.. 08/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 AM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH AND SOUTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with a threat for severe gusts and large hail will be possible across parts of the Dakotas today into this evening. ...Northern Plains... An upper shortwave trough over the northern Rockies will shift east across the Dakotas and the Canadian Prairies today/tonight. At the surface, a cold front will develop east/southeast across MT into the western Dakotas during the afternoon. Ahead of the front southeasterly low-level flow will maintain low to mid 60s dewpoints beneath steep midlevel lapse rates. This will support moderate to strong destabilization across portions of the western Dakotas and western NE (MLCAPE 2500+ J/kg), with more modest destabilization further north and east. Around 30-40 kt of mid/upper level northwesterly flow atop vertically veering low-level wind profiles will support supercell storms initially across western portions of the outlook area. This will overlap with the corridor of stronger instability and scattered storms produce large hail and strong/severe gusts will be possible. Toward evening, a 30-40 kt southerly low-level jet is expected to develop and upscale development into an MCS is possible across eastern portions of the outlook area. Forecast guidance varies regarding the degree of capping that will exist with eastward extent, but potential for an organized MCS producing strong/severe gusts appears possible across eastern SD, and may persist east/southeast toward the Mid-MO Valley during the nighttime hours. ..Leitman/Weinman.. 08/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 AM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH AND SOUTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with a threat for severe gusts and large hail will be possible across parts of the Dakotas today into this evening. ...Northern Plains... An upper shortwave trough over the northern Rockies will shift east across the Dakotas and the Canadian Prairies today/tonight. At the surface, a cold front will develop east/southeast across MT into the western Dakotas during the afternoon. Ahead of the front southeasterly low-level flow will maintain low to mid 60s dewpoints beneath steep midlevel lapse rates. This will support moderate to strong destabilization across portions of the western Dakotas and western NE (MLCAPE 2500+ J/kg), with more modest destabilization further north and east. Around 30-40 kt of mid/upper level northwesterly flow atop vertically veering low-level wind profiles will support supercell storms initially across western portions of the outlook area. This will overlap with the corridor of stronger instability and scattered storms produce large hail and strong/severe gusts will be possible. Toward evening, a 30-40 kt southerly low-level jet is expected to develop and upscale development into an MCS is possible across eastern portions of the outlook area. Forecast guidance varies regarding the degree of capping that will exist with eastward extent, but potential for an organized MCS producing strong/severe gusts appears possible across eastern SD, and may persist east/southeast toward the Mid-MO Valley during the nighttime hours. ..Leitman/Weinman.. 08/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 AM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH AND SOUTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with a threat for severe gusts and large hail will be possible across parts of the Dakotas today into this evening. ...Northern Plains... An upper shortwave trough over the northern Rockies will shift east across the Dakotas and the Canadian Prairies today/tonight. At the surface, a cold front will develop east/southeast across MT into the western Dakotas during the afternoon. Ahead of the front southeasterly low-level flow will maintain low to mid 60s dewpoints beneath steep midlevel lapse rates. This will support moderate to strong destabilization across portions of the western Dakotas and western NE (MLCAPE 2500+ J/kg), with more modest destabilization further north and east. Around 30-40 kt of mid/upper level northwesterly flow atop vertically veering low-level wind profiles will support supercell storms initially across western portions of the outlook area. This will overlap with the corridor of stronger instability and scattered storms produce large hail and strong/severe gusts will be possible. Toward evening, a 30-40 kt southerly low-level jet is expected to develop and upscale development into an MCS is possible across eastern portions of the outlook area. Forecast guidance varies regarding the degree of capping that will exist with eastward extent, but potential for an organized MCS producing strong/severe gusts appears possible across eastern SD, and may persist east/southeast toward the Mid-MO Valley during the nighttime hours. ..Leitman/Weinman.. 08/05/2025 Read more

WW 0573 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 573 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NW SHR TO 15 NNW MLS. WW 573 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 050500Z. ..GLEASON..08/05/25 ATTN...WFO...BYZ...TFX...GGW... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 573 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MTC003-087-050500- MT . MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BIG HORN ROSEBUD THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 573 SEVERE TSTM MT 042240Z - 050500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 573 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 440 PM MDT Mon Aug 4 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Central and Eastern Montana * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 440 PM until 1100 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Clusters of thunderstorms should spread east-northeastward this afternoon and evening while posing a threat for mainly scattered severe/damaging winds up to 60-75 mph. Isolated large hail around 1-1.5 inches in diameter may also occur with any of the stronger cells that can persist. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 100 statute miles north and south of a line from 60 miles west of Great Falls MT to 75 miles south of Glasgow MT. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 571...WW 572... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24035. ...Gleason Read more

WW 0572 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 572 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE TAD TO 45 W SPD TO 25 WNW SPD TO 5 SSE SPD TO 5 SSW EHA. ..JEWELL..08/05/25 ATTN...WFO...PUB...ABQ...AMA... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 572 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC009-071-050440- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BACA LAS ANIMAS NMC059-050440- NM . NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE UNION OKC025-050440- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CIMARRON TXC111-050440- Read more

WW 0572 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 572 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE TAD TO 45 W SPD TO 25 WNW SPD TO 5 SSE SPD TO 5 SSW EHA. ..JEWELL..08/05/25 ATTN...WFO...PUB...ABQ...AMA... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 572 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC009-071-050440- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BACA LAS ANIMAS NMC059-050440- NM . NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE UNION OKC025-050440- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CIMARRON TXC111-050440- Read more

WW 572 SEVERE TSTM CO NM OK TX 042205Z - 050400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 572 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 405 PM MDT Mon Aug 4 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southeast Colorado Far Northeast New Mexico The Western Oklahoma Panhandle The Far Northwest Texas Panhandle * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 405 PM until 1000 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Slow-moving supercells should pose a threat for mainly large to very large hail this afternoon and evening. Peak hailstone diameters may reach up to 2-3 inches on an isolated basis. Occasional severe/damaging winds could also occur if any clusters can form, although this potential remains uncertain. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles east and west of a line from 30 miles northwest of Lamar CO to 30 miles south southeast of Clayton NM. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 571... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 32010. ...Gleason Read more

WW 0573 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 573 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NW SHR TO 55 SW GGW TO 60 SE GPI. ..WEINMAN..08/05/25 ATTN...WFO...BYZ...TFX...GGW... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 573 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MTC003-005-015-033-041-051-071-073-087-099-101-103-105-050340- MT . MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BIG HORN BLAINE CHOUTEAU GARFIELD HILL LIBERTY PHILLIPS PONDERA ROSEBUD TETON TOOLE TREASURE VALLEY THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0573 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 573 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NW SHR TO 55 SW GGW TO 60 SE GPI. ..WEINMAN..08/05/25 ATTN...WFO...BYZ...TFX...GGW... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 573 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MTC003-005-015-033-041-051-071-073-087-099-101-103-105-050340- MT . MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BIG HORN BLAINE CHOUTEAU GARFIELD HILL LIBERTY PHILLIPS PONDERA ROSEBUD TETON TOOLE TREASURE VALLEY THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

MD 1888 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 571...572... FOR CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
Mesoscale Discussion 1888 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0746 PM CDT Mon Aug 04 2025 Areas affected...central High Plains Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 571...572... Valid 050046Z - 050245Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 571, 572 continues. SUMMARY...Widely spaced severe storms persist across the central High Plains, with mainly a large hail threat. These storms should remain within a relatively narrow north-south corridor this evening. DISCUSSION...Two main clusters of cells persist this evening over eastern CO where southeast low-level winds have maintained lower 60s F dewpoints. Modest northwest flow aloft exists as well, helping to elongate hodographs with splitting cells noted earlier. Recently, cells have accelerated in a relative sense, now with southward propagation into the increasing nocturnal low-level jet. Increasing MLCIN as seen on available 00Z soundings suggest the existing storm corridor will not shift eastward much, but perhaps toward the CO/KS border. The cluster of storms west of GLD has shown some eastward progression recently as outflow increases. For areas from far southeast CO into northeast NM and the western Panhandles, capping is not as strong and this region will remain firmly within the 850 mb theta-e plume. As such, at least isolated cells may persist well into the evening with hail and localized wind threat. ..Jewell.. 08/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LBF...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...CYS...ABQ... LAT...LON 37300209 36730231 36600250 36320278 36150320 36310376 37130364 39360365 41320381 42050402 42600399 42890371 42980332 42640287 39200217 38270195 37300209 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

WW 0572 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 572 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..JEWELL..08/05/25 ATTN...WFO...PUB...ABQ...AMA... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 572 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC009-011-025-061-071-089-099-050340- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BACA BENT CROWLEY KIOWA LAS ANIMAS OTERO PROWERS NMC059-050340- NM . NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE UNION OKC025-050340- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CIMARRON Read more

WW 0572 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 572 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..JEWELL..08/05/25 ATTN...WFO...PUB...ABQ...AMA... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 572 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC009-011-025-061-071-089-099-050340- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BACA BENT CROWLEY KIOWA LAS ANIMAS OTERO PROWERS NMC059-050340- NM . NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE UNION OKC025-050340- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CIMARRON Read more

MD 1887 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 573... FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL MONTANA
Mesoscale Discussion 1887 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0743 PM CDT Mon Aug 04 2025 Areas affected...Parts of central Montana Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 573... Valid 050043Z - 050215Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 573 continues. SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will continue increasing in intensity and coverage while spreading northeastward across Severe Thunderstorm Watch 573. Severe wind gusts and isolated large hail are the main concerns. DISCUSSION...The latest water-vapor imagery indicates strengthening midlevel ascent impinging on western/central MT this evening -- preceding a compact/negative-tilt midlevel trough over the northern Rockies. Regional VWP data shows strengthening midlevel southwesterly flow ahead of the trough, which is contributing to around 40 kt of deep-layer shear. In response to these factors, thunderstorms will continue increasing in intensity and coverage while spreading/developing northeastward across central MT -- within Severe Thunderstorm Watch 573. The strengthening large-scale ascent, well-mixed boundary layer, and favorable deep-layer shear is favoring the development of a loosely organized broken band of storms, capable of producing severe outflow winds. However, the west-southwesterly deep-layer shear vectors (orthogonal to the developing larger-scale cold pool) are also supporting semi-discrete supercell structures along the evolving convective band, as well as ahead of this activity. Large hail is also a concern with these more discrete storms. ..Weinman.. 08/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX... LAT...LON 45750798 46670854 46910922 46881019 46901159 47141242 47381260 47761249 48661120 49041032 49080936 48820820 48310719 47580653 46260630 45670660 45660727 45750798 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

WW 0571 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 571 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNW LIC TO 30 ENE GLD TO 10 WSW MHN TO 5 SE TOR TO 55 WNW CDR. ..JEWELL..08/05/25 ATTN...WFO...GLD...BOU...LBF...CYS... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 571 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC017-063-073-050340- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE KIT CARSON LINCOLN KSC071-181-199-050340- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE GREELEY SHERMAN WALLACE NEC013-045-161-165-050340- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOX BUTTE DAWES SHERIDAN SIOUX Read more