Severe Storms

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND NORTHERN ROCKIES... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with isolated severe gusts and hail will be possible on Thursday from parts of the northern Plains westward into the northern Rockies. ...Northern Plains... At mid-levels, a shortwave ridge is forecast to move eastward across the northern Plains on Thursday, as a speed max moves over the top of the ridge into southern Canada. At the surface, a moist and unstable airmass will be in place across most of the northern Plains. The ridge will move eastward toward the upper Mississippi Valley during the day. In its wake, isolated convective development is expected during the mid to late afternoon over the western Dakotas. This convection should remain elevated, due to a shallow capping inversion around 750 mb that is evident on forecast soundings. During the early to mid evening, some of the convection could become surface-based and be associated with a potential for isolated severe gusts and hail. ...Northern Rockies... A mid-level trough is forecast to move across the Pacific Northwest on Thursday, as flow remains southwesterly ahead of the trough over the northern Rockies. At the surface, dewpoints are forecast to be from the mid 40s to lower 50s F throughout much of the region. As surface temperatures warm during the day, scattered thunderstorms will likely develop in the higher terrain, with more isolated convection expected along an axis of instability across central Montana. By afternoon, forecast soundings along the axis of instability have weak instability in place (MLCAPE around 500 J/kg), with 0-6 km shear mostly in the 45 to 55 knot range. This, combined with steep low to mid-level lapse rates, should be enough for an isolated severe threat. A few severe wind gusts and hail will be possible. ..Broyles.. 08/05/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 AM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EAST-CENTRAL NEVADA...SOUTHERN/CENTRAL UTAH...AND NORTHWEST COLORADO... ...Synopsis... Similar to Day 1/Tuesday, enhanced west-southwesterly flow aloft will remain in place across much of the Great Basin into the northern/central Rockies -- between an expansive midlevel anticyclone over the Southwest and an increasingly pronounced large-scale trough over the Northwest. ...Great Basin into the central Rockies... The enhanced deep-layer west-southwesterly flow will overspread a dry/deeply mixed boundary layer during the afternoon. As a result, 10-15 percent RH will develop amid 15-20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds. The greatest overlap of strong winds and low RH is expected beneath the core of the stronger deep-layer flow -- extending from east-central NV across southern/central UT and northwest CO. Here, the combination of hot, dry, and breezy conditions atop receptive fuels will favor another day of critical fire-weather conditions. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Southwest into the central Rockies... A midlevel moisture plume will expand northeastward from the Southwest into the central Rockies, supporting isolated diurnally driven thunderstorms over the higher terrain during the afternoon. Inverted-V soundings and 0.50-0.75 inch PW will favor mostly dry storms, which will pose a risk of lightning-induced ignitions and gusty/erratic outflow winds. ..Weinman.. 08/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 AM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EAST-CENTRAL NEVADA...SOUTHERN/CENTRAL UTAH...AND NORTHWEST COLORADO... ...Synopsis... Similar to Day 1/Tuesday, enhanced west-southwesterly flow aloft will remain in place across much of the Great Basin into the northern/central Rockies -- between an expansive midlevel anticyclone over the Southwest and an increasingly pronounced large-scale trough over the Northwest. ...Great Basin into the central Rockies... The enhanced deep-layer west-southwesterly flow will overspread a dry/deeply mixed boundary layer during the afternoon. As a result, 10-15 percent RH will develop amid 15-20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds. The greatest overlap of strong winds and low RH is expected beneath the core of the stronger deep-layer flow -- extending from east-central NV across southern/central UT and northwest CO. Here, the combination of hot, dry, and breezy conditions atop receptive fuels will favor another day of critical fire-weather conditions. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Southwest into the central Rockies... A midlevel moisture plume will expand northeastward from the Southwest into the central Rockies, supporting isolated diurnally driven thunderstorms over the higher terrain during the afternoon. Inverted-V soundings and 0.50-0.75 inch PW will favor mostly dry storms, which will pose a risk of lightning-induced ignitions and gusty/erratic outflow winds. ..Weinman.. 08/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 AM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EAST-CENTRAL NEVADA...SOUTHERN/CENTRAL UTAH...AND NORTHWEST COLORADO... ...Synopsis... Similar to Day 1/Tuesday, enhanced west-southwesterly flow aloft will remain in place across much of the Great Basin into the northern/central Rockies -- between an expansive midlevel anticyclone over the Southwest and an increasingly pronounced large-scale trough over the Northwest. ...Great Basin into the central Rockies... The enhanced deep-layer west-southwesterly flow will overspread a dry/deeply mixed boundary layer during the afternoon. As a result, 10-15 percent RH will develop amid 15-20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds. The greatest overlap of strong winds and low RH is expected beneath the core of the stronger deep-layer flow -- extending from east-central NV across southern/central UT and northwest CO. Here, the combination of hot, dry, and breezy conditions atop receptive fuels will favor another day of critical fire-weather conditions. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Southwest into the central Rockies... A midlevel moisture plume will expand northeastward from the Southwest into the central Rockies, supporting isolated diurnally driven thunderstorms over the higher terrain during the afternoon. Inverted-V soundings and 0.50-0.75 inch PW will favor mostly dry storms, which will pose a risk of lightning-induced ignitions and gusty/erratic outflow winds. ..Weinman.. 08/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 AM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EAST-CENTRAL NEVADA...SOUTHERN/CENTRAL UTAH...AND NORTHWEST COLORADO... ...Synopsis... Similar to Day 1/Tuesday, enhanced west-southwesterly flow aloft will remain in place across much of the Great Basin into the northern/central Rockies -- between an expansive midlevel anticyclone over the Southwest and an increasingly pronounced large-scale trough over the Northwest. ...Great Basin into the central Rockies... The enhanced deep-layer west-southwesterly flow will overspread a dry/deeply mixed boundary layer during the afternoon. As a result, 10-15 percent RH will develop amid 15-20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds. The greatest overlap of strong winds and low RH is expected beneath the core of the stronger deep-layer flow -- extending from east-central NV across southern/central UT and northwest CO. Here, the combination of hot, dry, and breezy conditions atop receptive fuels will favor another day of critical fire-weather conditions. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Southwest into the central Rockies... A midlevel moisture plume will expand northeastward from the Southwest into the central Rockies, supporting isolated diurnally driven thunderstorms over the higher terrain during the afternoon. Inverted-V soundings and 0.50-0.75 inch PW will favor mostly dry storms, which will pose a risk of lightning-induced ignitions and gusty/erratic outflow winds. ..Weinman.. 08/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 AM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EAST-CENTRAL NEVADA...SOUTHERN/CENTRAL UTAH...AND NORTHWEST COLORADO... ...Synopsis... Similar to Day 1/Tuesday, enhanced west-southwesterly flow aloft will remain in place across much of the Great Basin into the northern/central Rockies -- between an expansive midlevel anticyclone over the Southwest and an increasingly pronounced large-scale trough over the Northwest. ...Great Basin into the central Rockies... The enhanced deep-layer west-southwesterly flow will overspread a dry/deeply mixed boundary layer during the afternoon. As a result, 10-15 percent RH will develop amid 15-20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds. The greatest overlap of strong winds and low RH is expected beneath the core of the stronger deep-layer flow -- extending from east-central NV across southern/central UT and northwest CO. Here, the combination of hot, dry, and breezy conditions atop receptive fuels will favor another day of critical fire-weather conditions. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Southwest into the central Rockies... A midlevel moisture plume will expand northeastward from the Southwest into the central Rockies, supporting isolated diurnally driven thunderstorms over the higher terrain during the afternoon. Inverted-V soundings and 0.50-0.75 inch PW will favor mostly dry storms, which will pose a risk of lightning-induced ignitions and gusty/erratic outflow winds. ..Weinman.. 08/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 AM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EAST-CENTRAL NEVADA...SOUTHERN/CENTRAL UTAH...AND NORTHWEST COLORADO... ...Synopsis... Similar to Day 1/Tuesday, enhanced west-southwesterly flow aloft will remain in place across much of the Great Basin into the northern/central Rockies -- between an expansive midlevel anticyclone over the Southwest and an increasingly pronounced large-scale trough over the Northwest. ...Great Basin into the central Rockies... The enhanced deep-layer west-southwesterly flow will overspread a dry/deeply mixed boundary layer during the afternoon. As a result, 10-15 percent RH will develop amid 15-20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds. The greatest overlap of strong winds and low RH is expected beneath the core of the stronger deep-layer flow -- extending from east-central NV across southern/central UT and northwest CO. Here, the combination of hot, dry, and breezy conditions atop receptive fuels will favor another day of critical fire-weather conditions. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Southwest into the central Rockies... A midlevel moisture plume will expand northeastward from the Southwest into the central Rockies, supporting isolated diurnally driven thunderstorms over the higher terrain during the afternoon. Inverted-V soundings and 0.50-0.75 inch PW will favor mostly dry storms, which will pose a risk of lightning-induced ignitions and gusty/erratic outflow winds. ..Weinman.. 08/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN/CENTRAL UTAH...FAR NORTHERN ARIZONA...AND NORTHWEST COLORADO... ...Synopsis... An expansive midlevel anticyclone will build over the Southwest, while broad midlevel troughing persists across much of the Intermountain West/Great Basin. Between these two features, enhanced deep-layer west-southwesterly flow will be maintained across the Great Basin into the northern/central Rockies. ...Great Basin into the central Rockies... Diurnal heating amid a warm/dry antecedent air mass will lead to another day of widespread single-digit to lower teens RH. At the same time, deep boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will favor breezy/gusty west-southwesterly surface winds area-wide. Across southern/central UT, far northern AZ, and northwest CO, the overlap of 20-25 mph sustained surface winds and single-digit RH will result in critical fire-weather conditions, given highly receptive fuels and several ongoing wildfires across the region. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Southwest... The 00Z TUS observed sounding sampled increasing midlevel moisture that is being drawn northward along the western periphery of the expansive midlevel anticyclone. Along the northern edge of the deeper moisture plume, inverted-V soundings and 0.60-0.75 inch PW will promote isolated dry thunderstorms across parts of eastern AZ and western NM during the afternoon. These storms will pose a risk of strong/erratic outflow winds and lightning-induced ignitions over dry fuels. ..Weinman.. 08/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN/CENTRAL UTAH...FAR NORTHERN ARIZONA...AND NORTHWEST COLORADO... ...Synopsis... An expansive midlevel anticyclone will build over the Southwest, while broad midlevel troughing persists across much of the Intermountain West/Great Basin. Between these two features, enhanced deep-layer west-southwesterly flow will be maintained across the Great Basin into the northern/central Rockies. ...Great Basin into the central Rockies... Diurnal heating amid a warm/dry antecedent air mass will lead to another day of widespread single-digit to lower teens RH. At the same time, deep boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will favor breezy/gusty west-southwesterly surface winds area-wide. Across southern/central UT, far northern AZ, and northwest CO, the overlap of 20-25 mph sustained surface winds and single-digit RH will result in critical fire-weather conditions, given highly receptive fuels and several ongoing wildfires across the region. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Southwest... The 00Z TUS observed sounding sampled increasing midlevel moisture that is being drawn northward along the western periphery of the expansive midlevel anticyclone. Along the northern edge of the deeper moisture plume, inverted-V soundings and 0.60-0.75 inch PW will promote isolated dry thunderstorms across parts of eastern AZ and western NM during the afternoon. These storms will pose a risk of strong/erratic outflow winds and lightning-induced ignitions over dry fuels. ..Weinman.. 08/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN/CENTRAL UTAH...FAR NORTHERN ARIZONA...AND NORTHWEST COLORADO... ...Synopsis... An expansive midlevel anticyclone will build over the Southwest, while broad midlevel troughing persists across much of the Intermountain West/Great Basin. Between these two features, enhanced deep-layer west-southwesterly flow will be maintained across the Great Basin into the northern/central Rockies. ...Great Basin into the central Rockies... Diurnal heating amid a warm/dry antecedent air mass will lead to another day of widespread single-digit to lower teens RH. At the same time, deep boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will favor breezy/gusty west-southwesterly surface winds area-wide. Across southern/central UT, far northern AZ, and northwest CO, the overlap of 20-25 mph sustained surface winds and single-digit RH will result in critical fire-weather conditions, given highly receptive fuels and several ongoing wildfires across the region. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Southwest... The 00Z TUS observed sounding sampled increasing midlevel moisture that is being drawn northward along the western periphery of the expansive midlevel anticyclone. Along the northern edge of the deeper moisture plume, inverted-V soundings and 0.60-0.75 inch PW will promote isolated dry thunderstorms across parts of eastern AZ and western NM during the afternoon. These storms will pose a risk of strong/erratic outflow winds and lightning-induced ignitions over dry fuels. ..Weinman.. 08/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN/CENTRAL UTAH...FAR NORTHERN ARIZONA...AND NORTHWEST COLORADO... ...Synopsis... An expansive midlevel anticyclone will build over the Southwest, while broad midlevel troughing persists across much of the Intermountain West/Great Basin. Between these two features, enhanced deep-layer west-southwesterly flow will be maintained across the Great Basin into the northern/central Rockies. ...Great Basin into the central Rockies... Diurnal heating amid a warm/dry antecedent air mass will lead to another day of widespread single-digit to lower teens RH. At the same time, deep boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will favor breezy/gusty west-southwesterly surface winds area-wide. Across southern/central UT, far northern AZ, and northwest CO, the overlap of 20-25 mph sustained surface winds and single-digit RH will result in critical fire-weather conditions, given highly receptive fuels and several ongoing wildfires across the region. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Southwest... The 00Z TUS observed sounding sampled increasing midlevel moisture that is being drawn northward along the western periphery of the expansive midlevel anticyclone. Along the northern edge of the deeper moisture plume, inverted-V soundings and 0.60-0.75 inch PW will promote isolated dry thunderstorms across parts of eastern AZ and western NM during the afternoon. These storms will pose a risk of strong/erratic outflow winds and lightning-induced ignitions over dry fuels. ..Weinman.. 08/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN/CENTRAL UTAH...FAR NORTHERN ARIZONA...AND NORTHWEST COLORADO... ...Synopsis... An expansive midlevel anticyclone will build over the Southwest, while broad midlevel troughing persists across much of the Intermountain West/Great Basin. Between these two features, enhanced deep-layer west-southwesterly flow will be maintained across the Great Basin into the northern/central Rockies. ...Great Basin into the central Rockies... Diurnal heating amid a warm/dry antecedent air mass will lead to another day of widespread single-digit to lower teens RH. At the same time, deep boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will favor breezy/gusty west-southwesterly surface winds area-wide. Across southern/central UT, far northern AZ, and northwest CO, the overlap of 20-25 mph sustained surface winds and single-digit RH will result in critical fire-weather conditions, given highly receptive fuels and several ongoing wildfires across the region. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Southwest... The 00Z TUS observed sounding sampled increasing midlevel moisture that is being drawn northward along the western periphery of the expansive midlevel anticyclone. Along the northern edge of the deeper moisture plume, inverted-V soundings and 0.60-0.75 inch PW will promote isolated dry thunderstorms across parts of eastern AZ and western NM during the afternoon. These storms will pose a risk of strong/erratic outflow winds and lightning-induced ignitions over dry fuels. ..Weinman.. 08/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN/CENTRAL UTAH...FAR NORTHERN ARIZONA...AND NORTHWEST COLORADO... ...Synopsis... An expansive midlevel anticyclone will build over the Southwest, while broad midlevel troughing persists across much of the Intermountain West/Great Basin. Between these two features, enhanced deep-layer west-southwesterly flow will be maintained across the Great Basin into the northern/central Rockies. ...Great Basin into the central Rockies... Diurnal heating amid a warm/dry antecedent air mass will lead to another day of widespread single-digit to lower teens RH. At the same time, deep boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will favor breezy/gusty west-southwesterly surface winds area-wide. Across southern/central UT, far northern AZ, and northwest CO, the overlap of 20-25 mph sustained surface winds and single-digit RH will result in critical fire-weather conditions, given highly receptive fuels and several ongoing wildfires across the region. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Southwest... The 00Z TUS observed sounding sampled increasing midlevel moisture that is being drawn northward along the western periphery of the expansive midlevel anticyclone. Along the northern edge of the deeper moisture plume, inverted-V soundings and 0.60-0.75 inch PW will promote isolated dry thunderstorms across parts of eastern AZ and western NM during the afternoon. These storms will pose a risk of strong/erratic outflow winds and lightning-induced ignitions over dry fuels. ..Weinman.. 08/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN/CENTRAL UTAH...FAR NORTHERN ARIZONA...AND NORTHWEST COLORADO... ...Synopsis... An expansive midlevel anticyclone will build over the Southwest, while broad midlevel troughing persists across much of the Intermountain West/Great Basin. Between these two features, enhanced deep-layer west-southwesterly flow will be maintained across the Great Basin into the northern/central Rockies. ...Great Basin into the central Rockies... Diurnal heating amid a warm/dry antecedent air mass will lead to another day of widespread single-digit to lower teens RH. At the same time, deep boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will favor breezy/gusty west-southwesterly surface winds area-wide. Across southern/central UT, far northern AZ, and northwest CO, the overlap of 20-25 mph sustained surface winds and single-digit RH will result in critical fire-weather conditions, given highly receptive fuels and several ongoing wildfires across the region. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Southwest... The 00Z TUS observed sounding sampled increasing midlevel moisture that is being drawn northward along the western periphery of the expansive midlevel anticyclone. Along the northern edge of the deeper moisture plume, inverted-V soundings and 0.60-0.75 inch PW will promote isolated dry thunderstorms across parts of eastern AZ and western NM during the afternoon. These storms will pose a risk of strong/erratic outflow winds and lightning-induced ignitions over dry fuels. ..Weinman.. 08/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL U.S.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms associated with severe gusts and hail will be possible across parts of the north-central U.S. on Wednesday. ...Central and Northern Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley... An anticyclonic mid-level flow pattern with rising heights will be in place across the north-central U.S. on Wednesday, with primarily westerly flow over the northern Plains. At the surface, a moist airmass will be located from Nebraska into the Dakotas. Along the eastern edge of this moist airmass, elevated thunderstorms appear likely to be ongoing at the start of the period. These storms are expected to move eastward into the upper Mississippi Valley, as moderate to strong instability develops further to the west. Convection may initiate during the afternoon across parts of this unstable airmass, where low-level convergence is sufficient. However, convective coverage will likely remain very isolated, due to a lack of large-scale ascent. Any cell that can develop into a thunderstorm and persist could have a severe threat, due to the instability, moderate deep-layer shear and steep low to mid-level lapse rates. Hail and isolated severe gusts will be the primary threats. For this outlook, will maintain a Marginal Risk due to the conditionality of the forecast, and due to the expected isolated nature of the threat. ..Broyles.. 08/05/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL U.S.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms associated with severe gusts and hail will be possible across parts of the north-central U.S. on Wednesday. ...Central and Northern Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley... An anticyclonic mid-level flow pattern with rising heights will be in place across the north-central U.S. on Wednesday, with primarily westerly flow over the northern Plains. At the surface, a moist airmass will be located from Nebraska into the Dakotas. Along the eastern edge of this moist airmass, elevated thunderstorms appear likely to be ongoing at the start of the period. These storms are expected to move eastward into the upper Mississippi Valley, as moderate to strong instability develops further to the west. Convection may initiate during the afternoon across parts of this unstable airmass, where low-level convergence is sufficient. However, convective coverage will likely remain very isolated, due to a lack of large-scale ascent. Any cell that can develop into a thunderstorm and persist could have a severe threat, due to the instability, moderate deep-layer shear and steep low to mid-level lapse rates. Hail and isolated severe gusts will be the primary threats. For this outlook, will maintain a Marginal Risk due to the conditionality of the forecast, and due to the expected isolated nature of the threat. ..Broyles.. 08/05/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL U.S.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms associated with severe gusts and hail will be possible across parts of the north-central U.S. on Wednesday. ...Central and Northern Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley... An anticyclonic mid-level flow pattern with rising heights will be in place across the north-central U.S. on Wednesday, with primarily westerly flow over the northern Plains. At the surface, a moist airmass will be located from Nebraska into the Dakotas. Along the eastern edge of this moist airmass, elevated thunderstorms appear likely to be ongoing at the start of the period. These storms are expected to move eastward into the upper Mississippi Valley, as moderate to strong instability develops further to the west. Convection may initiate during the afternoon across parts of this unstable airmass, where low-level convergence is sufficient. However, convective coverage will likely remain very isolated, due to a lack of large-scale ascent. Any cell that can develop into a thunderstorm and persist could have a severe threat, due to the instability, moderate deep-layer shear and steep low to mid-level lapse rates. Hail and isolated severe gusts will be the primary threats. For this outlook, will maintain a Marginal Risk due to the conditionality of the forecast, and due to the expected isolated nature of the threat. ..Broyles.. 08/05/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL U.S.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms associated with severe gusts and hail will be possible across parts of the north-central U.S. on Wednesday. ...Central and Northern Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley... An anticyclonic mid-level flow pattern with rising heights will be in place across the north-central U.S. on Wednesday, with primarily westerly flow over the northern Plains. At the surface, a moist airmass will be located from Nebraska into the Dakotas. Along the eastern edge of this moist airmass, elevated thunderstorms appear likely to be ongoing at the start of the period. These storms are expected to move eastward into the upper Mississippi Valley, as moderate to strong instability develops further to the west. Convection may initiate during the afternoon across parts of this unstable airmass, where low-level convergence is sufficient. However, convective coverage will likely remain very isolated, due to a lack of large-scale ascent. Any cell that can develop into a thunderstorm and persist could have a severe threat, due to the instability, moderate deep-layer shear and steep low to mid-level lapse rates. Hail and isolated severe gusts will be the primary threats. For this outlook, will maintain a Marginal Risk due to the conditionality of the forecast, and due to the expected isolated nature of the threat. ..Broyles.. 08/05/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL U.S.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms associated with severe gusts and hail will be possible across parts of the north-central U.S. on Wednesday. ...Central and Northern Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley... An anticyclonic mid-level flow pattern with rising heights will be in place across the north-central U.S. on Wednesday, with primarily westerly flow over the northern Plains. At the surface, a moist airmass will be located from Nebraska into the Dakotas. Along the eastern edge of this moist airmass, elevated thunderstorms appear likely to be ongoing at the start of the period. These storms are expected to move eastward into the upper Mississippi Valley, as moderate to strong instability develops further to the west. Convection may initiate during the afternoon across parts of this unstable airmass, where low-level convergence is sufficient. However, convective coverage will likely remain very isolated, due to a lack of large-scale ascent. Any cell that can develop into a thunderstorm and persist could have a severe threat, due to the instability, moderate deep-layer shear and steep low to mid-level lapse rates. Hail and isolated severe gusts will be the primary threats. For this outlook, will maintain a Marginal Risk due to the conditionality of the forecast, and due to the expected isolated nature of the threat. ..Broyles.. 08/05/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL U.S.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms associated with severe gusts and hail will be possible across parts of the north-central U.S. on Wednesday. ...Central and Northern Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley... An anticyclonic mid-level flow pattern with rising heights will be in place across the north-central U.S. on Wednesday, with primarily westerly flow over the northern Plains. At the surface, a moist airmass will be located from Nebraska into the Dakotas. Along the eastern edge of this moist airmass, elevated thunderstorms appear likely to be ongoing at the start of the period. These storms are expected to move eastward into the upper Mississippi Valley, as moderate to strong instability develops further to the west. Convection may initiate during the afternoon across parts of this unstable airmass, where low-level convergence is sufficient. However, convective coverage will likely remain very isolated, due to a lack of large-scale ascent. Any cell that can develop into a thunderstorm and persist could have a severe threat, due to the instability, moderate deep-layer shear and steep low to mid-level lapse rates. Hail and isolated severe gusts will be the primary threats. For this outlook, will maintain a Marginal Risk due to the conditionality of the forecast, and due to the expected isolated nature of the threat. ..Broyles.. 08/05/2025 Read more