Severe Storms

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Wed Aug 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PART OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with large hail and severe wind gusts are likely on Friday across parts of the northern Plains and upper Mississippi Valley. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible. ...Central and Northern Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley... A mid-level trough will progress eastward into the northern High Plains on Friday, as an associated speed max moves over the northern Plains. At the surface, a low will deepen across the central Plains, as a cold front advances eastward the north-central states. Ahead of the front, a moist and unstable airmass will be in place from the central Dakotas eastward to the upper Mississippi Valley. A pronounced axis of strong instability is forecast by afternoon from northeastern South Dakota into far eastern North Dakota. Surface-based thunderstorms are expected to develop along an instability gradient located just ahead of the front during the mid to late afternoon. A cluster of strong to severe thunderstorms will move eastward across the eastern Dakotas into Minnesota from late afternoon into the evening. At 21Z on Friday, forecast soundings near the axis of instability have an impressive thermodynamic environment. To the west of Fargo, North Dakota, MLCAPE is forecast to peak in the 4500 to 6000 J/kg range, with 700-500 mb lapse rates in the 8 to 9 C/km range. In addition, 0-6 km shear is forecast to be in the 35 to 40 knot range, suggesting supercells with large hail will be likely. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with the stronger cores. In addition, 0-3 km storm-relative helicity is forecast reach the 200 to 275 m2/s2 range by late afternoon, suggesting that a tornado threat could develop. The potential for severe gusts is expected to increase in the early evening, as a cluster or broken line of strong to severe storms moves eastward across the region. Further south into southeastern South Dakota and northeastern Nebraska, cell coverage is forecast to be more isolated due to a capping inversion that is evident on forecast soundings. In spite of the cap, low-level convergence is forecast to become strong just ahead of the front. This should be enough for convective initiation during the evening. The environment along this part of the front will likely support large hail and severe wind gusts, but the threat should be more isolated with southward extent. ..Broyles.. 08/06/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 AM CDT Wed Aug 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES... ...Synopsis... A robust midlevel trough will advance eastward across the northwestern CONUS, while an expansive large-scale ridge remains in place across the southern Rockies and adjacent Plains. ...Great Basin into the Central Rockies... Compared to Day 1/Wednesday, slightly stronger deep-layer west-southwesterly flow will overspread the Great Basin into the central Rockies -- between the robust midlevel trough and expansive large-scale ridge. Diurnal heating amid a dry antecedent air mass will yield deep boundary-layer mixing into the strengthening flow aloft, resulting in 5-10 percent RH and 20-25 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts). These hot, dry, and windy conditions atop receptive fuels will lead to another critical fire-weather day across the region. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Southwest into the Central Rockies... Midlevel moisture beneath the expansive large-scale ridge will once again contribute to inverted-V soundings and sufficient instability for diurnally driven high-based thunderstorms. Around 0.5 to 0.70 inch PW will favor dry thunderstorms, and given receptive fuels, lightning-induced ignitions will be a continued concern (along with strong/erratic outflow winds). ..Weinman.. 08/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 AM CDT Wed Aug 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES... ...Synopsis... A robust midlevel trough will advance eastward across the northwestern CONUS, while an expansive large-scale ridge remains in place across the southern Rockies and adjacent Plains. ...Great Basin into the Central Rockies... Compared to Day 1/Wednesday, slightly stronger deep-layer west-southwesterly flow will overspread the Great Basin into the central Rockies -- between the robust midlevel trough and expansive large-scale ridge. Diurnal heating amid a dry antecedent air mass will yield deep boundary-layer mixing into the strengthening flow aloft, resulting in 5-10 percent RH and 20-25 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts). These hot, dry, and windy conditions atop receptive fuels will lead to another critical fire-weather day across the region. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Southwest into the Central Rockies... Midlevel moisture beneath the expansive large-scale ridge will once again contribute to inverted-V soundings and sufficient instability for diurnally driven high-based thunderstorms. Around 0.5 to 0.70 inch PW will favor dry thunderstorms, and given receptive fuels, lightning-induced ignitions will be a continued concern (along with strong/erratic outflow winds). ..Weinman.. 08/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 AM CDT Wed Aug 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES... ...Synopsis... A robust midlevel trough will advance eastward across the northwestern CONUS, while an expansive large-scale ridge remains in place across the southern Rockies and adjacent Plains. ...Great Basin into the Central Rockies... Compared to Day 1/Wednesday, slightly stronger deep-layer west-southwesterly flow will overspread the Great Basin into the central Rockies -- between the robust midlevel trough and expansive large-scale ridge. Diurnal heating amid a dry antecedent air mass will yield deep boundary-layer mixing into the strengthening flow aloft, resulting in 5-10 percent RH and 20-25 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts). These hot, dry, and windy conditions atop receptive fuels will lead to another critical fire-weather day across the region. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Southwest into the Central Rockies... Midlevel moisture beneath the expansive large-scale ridge will once again contribute to inverted-V soundings and sufficient instability for diurnally driven high-based thunderstorms. Around 0.5 to 0.70 inch PW will favor dry thunderstorms, and given receptive fuels, lightning-induced ignitions will be a continued concern (along with strong/erratic outflow winds). ..Weinman.. 08/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 AM CDT Wed Aug 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES... ...Synopsis... A robust midlevel trough will advance eastward across the northwestern CONUS, while an expansive large-scale ridge remains in place across the southern Rockies and adjacent Plains. ...Great Basin into the Central Rockies... Compared to Day 1/Wednesday, slightly stronger deep-layer west-southwesterly flow will overspread the Great Basin into the central Rockies -- between the robust midlevel trough and expansive large-scale ridge. Diurnal heating amid a dry antecedent air mass will yield deep boundary-layer mixing into the strengthening flow aloft, resulting in 5-10 percent RH and 20-25 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts). These hot, dry, and windy conditions atop receptive fuels will lead to another critical fire-weather day across the region. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Southwest into the Central Rockies... Midlevel moisture beneath the expansive large-scale ridge will once again contribute to inverted-V soundings and sufficient instability for diurnally driven high-based thunderstorms. Around 0.5 to 0.70 inch PW will favor dry thunderstorms, and given receptive fuels, lightning-induced ignitions will be a continued concern (along with strong/erratic outflow winds). ..Weinman.. 08/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 AM CDT Wed Aug 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES... ...Synopsis... A robust midlevel trough will advance eastward across the northwestern CONUS, while an expansive large-scale ridge remains in place across the southern Rockies and adjacent Plains. ...Great Basin into the Central Rockies... Compared to Day 1/Wednesday, slightly stronger deep-layer west-southwesterly flow will overspread the Great Basin into the central Rockies -- between the robust midlevel trough and expansive large-scale ridge. Diurnal heating amid a dry antecedent air mass will yield deep boundary-layer mixing into the strengthening flow aloft, resulting in 5-10 percent RH and 20-25 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts). These hot, dry, and windy conditions atop receptive fuels will lead to another critical fire-weather day across the region. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Southwest into the Central Rockies... Midlevel moisture beneath the expansive large-scale ridge will once again contribute to inverted-V soundings and sufficient instability for diurnally driven high-based thunderstorms. Around 0.5 to 0.70 inch PW will favor dry thunderstorms, and given receptive fuels, lightning-induced ignitions will be a continued concern (along with strong/erratic outflow winds). ..Weinman.. 08/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 AM CDT Wed Aug 06 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES... ...Synopsis... Broad midlevel troughing will persist across the northwestern CONUS, while an expansive mid/upper-level anticyclone remains centered on the Southwest/southern Rockies. ...Great Basin into the Central Rockies... Between the midlevel troughing and expansive mid/upper-level anticyclone, a belt of enhanced deep-layer west-southwesterly flow will remain in place across the Great Basin into the central Rockies. A diurnally deepening PBL will extent into this enhanced flow aloft, yielding an expansive overlap of around 20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds and 10-15 percent RH. These conditions, combined with highly receptive fuels, will favor another day of critical fire-weather conditions across the region. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Southwest into the Central Rockies... Boundary-layer mixing beneath a plume of well-established midlevel moisture extending from the Southwest into the central Rockies will yield sufficient instability (characterized by inverted-V soundings) for isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development -- generally focused along terrain features. PW values of 0.50 to 0.75 inches will promote mostly dry thunderstorms, which will pose a risk of lightning-induced ignitions and strong outflow winds. ..Weinman.. 08/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 AM CDT Wed Aug 06 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES... ...Synopsis... Broad midlevel troughing will persist across the northwestern CONUS, while an expansive mid/upper-level anticyclone remains centered on the Southwest/southern Rockies. ...Great Basin into the Central Rockies... Between the midlevel troughing and expansive mid/upper-level anticyclone, a belt of enhanced deep-layer west-southwesterly flow will remain in place across the Great Basin into the central Rockies. A diurnally deepening PBL will extent into this enhanced flow aloft, yielding an expansive overlap of around 20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds and 10-15 percent RH. These conditions, combined with highly receptive fuels, will favor another day of critical fire-weather conditions across the region. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Southwest into the Central Rockies... Boundary-layer mixing beneath a plume of well-established midlevel moisture extending from the Southwest into the central Rockies will yield sufficient instability (characterized by inverted-V soundings) for isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development -- generally focused along terrain features. PW values of 0.50 to 0.75 inches will promote mostly dry thunderstorms, which will pose a risk of lightning-induced ignitions and strong outflow winds. ..Weinman.. 08/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 AM CDT Wed Aug 06 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES... ...Synopsis... Broad midlevel troughing will persist across the northwestern CONUS, while an expansive mid/upper-level anticyclone remains centered on the Southwest/southern Rockies. ...Great Basin into the Central Rockies... Between the midlevel troughing and expansive mid/upper-level anticyclone, a belt of enhanced deep-layer west-southwesterly flow will remain in place across the Great Basin into the central Rockies. A diurnally deepening PBL will extent into this enhanced flow aloft, yielding an expansive overlap of around 20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds and 10-15 percent RH. These conditions, combined with highly receptive fuels, will favor another day of critical fire-weather conditions across the region. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Southwest into the Central Rockies... Boundary-layer mixing beneath a plume of well-established midlevel moisture extending from the Southwest into the central Rockies will yield sufficient instability (characterized by inverted-V soundings) for isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development -- generally focused along terrain features. PW values of 0.50 to 0.75 inches will promote mostly dry thunderstorms, which will pose a risk of lightning-induced ignitions and strong outflow winds. ..Weinman.. 08/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 AM CDT Wed Aug 06 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES... ...Synopsis... Broad midlevel troughing will persist across the northwestern CONUS, while an expansive mid/upper-level anticyclone remains centered on the Southwest/southern Rockies. ...Great Basin into the Central Rockies... Between the midlevel troughing and expansive mid/upper-level anticyclone, a belt of enhanced deep-layer west-southwesterly flow will remain in place across the Great Basin into the central Rockies. A diurnally deepening PBL will extent into this enhanced flow aloft, yielding an expansive overlap of around 20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds and 10-15 percent RH. These conditions, combined with highly receptive fuels, will favor another day of critical fire-weather conditions across the region. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Southwest into the Central Rockies... Boundary-layer mixing beneath a plume of well-established midlevel moisture extending from the Southwest into the central Rockies will yield sufficient instability (characterized by inverted-V soundings) for isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development -- generally focused along terrain features. PW values of 0.50 to 0.75 inches will promote mostly dry thunderstorms, which will pose a risk of lightning-induced ignitions and strong outflow winds. ..Weinman.. 08/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 AM CDT Wed Aug 06 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES... ...Synopsis... Broad midlevel troughing will persist across the northwestern CONUS, while an expansive mid/upper-level anticyclone remains centered on the Southwest/southern Rockies. ...Great Basin into the Central Rockies... Between the midlevel troughing and expansive mid/upper-level anticyclone, a belt of enhanced deep-layer west-southwesterly flow will remain in place across the Great Basin into the central Rockies. A diurnally deepening PBL will extent into this enhanced flow aloft, yielding an expansive overlap of around 20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds and 10-15 percent RH. These conditions, combined with highly receptive fuels, will favor another day of critical fire-weather conditions across the region. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Southwest into the Central Rockies... Boundary-layer mixing beneath a plume of well-established midlevel moisture extending from the Southwest into the central Rockies will yield sufficient instability (characterized by inverted-V soundings) for isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development -- generally focused along terrain features. PW values of 0.50 to 0.75 inches will promote mostly dry thunderstorms, which will pose a risk of lightning-induced ignitions and strong outflow winds. ..Weinman.. 08/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0101 AM CDT Wed Aug 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible Thursday afternoon and evening across the northern Plains. Isolated very large hail and severe gusts will be the primary threats. ...Northern Plains... A mid-level shortwave ridge will move eastward across the northern Plains on Thursday, as southwesterly flow becomes established across the northern High Plains. At the surface, a low will deepen in western South Dakota, as a cold front moves southward across western North Dakota. To the southeast of the front, a moist and unstable airmass will be in place across most of the northern Plains. Surface dewpoints across this airmass should be from the mid 60s to the lower 70s F. Ahead of the front and near the surface low, an axis of strong instability is forecast to develop over the western Dakotas by afternoon. Isolated convective initiation will likely take place near the instability axis and front in the afternoon. Surface-based thunderstorms are expected to develop and move eastward across the northern Plains during the late afternoon and evening. A severe threat appears likely. Forecast soundings near the instability axis at 21Z are impressive, with MLCAPE near 5000 J/kg, 0-6 km shear around 40 knots, and 700-500 mb lapse rates near 8.5 C/km. This environment will be favorable for supercells with large hail. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with the more intense cores. A potential for severe gusts will also exist, with a greater threat in the evening if cells can congeal into a short line segment. An isolated tornado threat could also develop. Any severe threat is expected to persist into the mid to late evening. Further to the east-southeastward into Minnesota, and southward into South Dakota, large-scale ascent is forecast to be weak. For this reason, convective coverage is forecast to be limited. However, isolated convection could initiate along zones of low-level convergence and maximized surface heating. Any cell that could develop and persist, could obtain an isolated threat for hail and severe gusts. ...Montana... A mid-level trough will move eastward across the northern Rockies on Thursday, as the exit region of an associated jet max moves into the northern High Plains. The western edge of a moist and unstable airmass will likely be in place across parts of central Montana, where model forecast suggest MLCAPE could reach the 1200 to 2500 J/kg range. Convective initiation is expected in the higher terrain of west-central Montana, and this activity will move eastward into the stronger instability during the evening. Additional storms appear likely to develop in northeastern Montana during the mid to late evening, within an upslope flow regime. In addition to the instability, moderate to strong deep-layer shear will be in place over the northern High Plains, mainly due to influence of the mid-level jet. This environment should be favorable for severe storms, with large hail and severe gusts possible in the late afternoon and evening. ..Broyles.. 08/06/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0101 AM CDT Wed Aug 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible Thursday afternoon and evening across the northern Plains. Isolated very large hail and severe gusts will be the primary threats. ...Northern Plains... A mid-level shortwave ridge will move eastward across the northern Plains on Thursday, as southwesterly flow becomes established across the northern High Plains. At the surface, a low will deepen in western South Dakota, as a cold front moves southward across western North Dakota. To the southeast of the front, a moist and unstable airmass will be in place across most of the northern Plains. Surface dewpoints across this airmass should be from the mid 60s to the lower 70s F. Ahead of the front and near the surface low, an axis of strong instability is forecast to develop over the western Dakotas by afternoon. Isolated convective initiation will likely take place near the instability axis and front in the afternoon. Surface-based thunderstorms are expected to develop and move eastward across the northern Plains during the late afternoon and evening. A severe threat appears likely. Forecast soundings near the instability axis at 21Z are impressive, with MLCAPE near 5000 J/kg, 0-6 km shear around 40 knots, and 700-500 mb lapse rates near 8.5 C/km. This environment will be favorable for supercells with large hail. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with the more intense cores. A potential for severe gusts will also exist, with a greater threat in the evening if cells can congeal into a short line segment. An isolated tornado threat could also develop. Any severe threat is expected to persist into the mid to late evening. Further to the east-southeastward into Minnesota, and southward into South Dakota, large-scale ascent is forecast to be weak. For this reason, convective coverage is forecast to be limited. However, isolated convection could initiate along zones of low-level convergence and maximized surface heating. Any cell that could develop and persist, could obtain an isolated threat for hail and severe gusts. ...Montana... A mid-level trough will move eastward across the northern Rockies on Thursday, as the exit region of an associated jet max moves into the northern High Plains. The western edge of a moist and unstable airmass will likely be in place across parts of central Montana, where model forecast suggest MLCAPE could reach the 1200 to 2500 J/kg range. Convective initiation is expected in the higher terrain of west-central Montana, and this activity will move eastward into the stronger instability during the evening. Additional storms appear likely to develop in northeastern Montana during the mid to late evening, within an upslope flow regime. In addition to the instability, moderate to strong deep-layer shear will be in place over the northern High Plains, mainly due to influence of the mid-level jet. This environment should be favorable for severe storms, with large hail and severe gusts possible in the late afternoon and evening. ..Broyles.. 08/06/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0101 AM CDT Wed Aug 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible Thursday afternoon and evening across the northern Plains. Isolated very large hail and severe gusts will be the primary threats. ...Northern Plains... A mid-level shortwave ridge will move eastward across the northern Plains on Thursday, as southwesterly flow becomes established across the northern High Plains. At the surface, a low will deepen in western South Dakota, as a cold front moves southward across western North Dakota. To the southeast of the front, a moist and unstable airmass will be in place across most of the northern Plains. Surface dewpoints across this airmass should be from the mid 60s to the lower 70s F. Ahead of the front and near the surface low, an axis of strong instability is forecast to develop over the western Dakotas by afternoon. Isolated convective initiation will likely take place near the instability axis and front in the afternoon. Surface-based thunderstorms are expected to develop and move eastward across the northern Plains during the late afternoon and evening. A severe threat appears likely. Forecast soundings near the instability axis at 21Z are impressive, with MLCAPE near 5000 J/kg, 0-6 km shear around 40 knots, and 700-500 mb lapse rates near 8.5 C/km. This environment will be favorable for supercells with large hail. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with the more intense cores. A potential for severe gusts will also exist, with a greater threat in the evening if cells can congeal into a short line segment. An isolated tornado threat could also develop. Any severe threat is expected to persist into the mid to late evening. Further to the east-southeastward into Minnesota, and southward into South Dakota, large-scale ascent is forecast to be weak. For this reason, convective coverage is forecast to be limited. However, isolated convection could initiate along zones of low-level convergence and maximized surface heating. Any cell that could develop and persist, could obtain an isolated threat for hail and severe gusts. ...Montana... A mid-level trough will move eastward across the northern Rockies on Thursday, as the exit region of an associated jet max moves into the northern High Plains. The western edge of a moist and unstable airmass will likely be in place across parts of central Montana, where model forecast suggest MLCAPE could reach the 1200 to 2500 J/kg range. Convective initiation is expected in the higher terrain of west-central Montana, and this activity will move eastward into the stronger instability during the evening. Additional storms appear likely to develop in northeastern Montana during the mid to late evening, within an upslope flow regime. In addition to the instability, moderate to strong deep-layer shear will be in place over the northern High Plains, mainly due to influence of the mid-level jet. This environment should be favorable for severe storms, with large hail and severe gusts possible in the late afternoon and evening. ..Broyles.. 08/06/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0101 AM CDT Wed Aug 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible Thursday afternoon and evening across the northern Plains. Isolated very large hail and severe gusts will be the primary threats. ...Northern Plains... A mid-level shortwave ridge will move eastward across the northern Plains on Thursday, as southwesterly flow becomes established across the northern High Plains. At the surface, a low will deepen in western South Dakota, as a cold front moves southward across western North Dakota. To the southeast of the front, a moist and unstable airmass will be in place across most of the northern Plains. Surface dewpoints across this airmass should be from the mid 60s to the lower 70s F. Ahead of the front and near the surface low, an axis of strong instability is forecast to develop over the western Dakotas by afternoon. Isolated convective initiation will likely take place near the instability axis and front in the afternoon. Surface-based thunderstorms are expected to develop and move eastward across the northern Plains during the late afternoon and evening. A severe threat appears likely. Forecast soundings near the instability axis at 21Z are impressive, with MLCAPE near 5000 J/kg, 0-6 km shear around 40 knots, and 700-500 mb lapse rates near 8.5 C/km. This environment will be favorable for supercells with large hail. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with the more intense cores. A potential for severe gusts will also exist, with a greater threat in the evening if cells can congeal into a short line segment. An isolated tornado threat could also develop. Any severe threat is expected to persist into the mid to late evening. Further to the east-southeastward into Minnesota, and southward into South Dakota, large-scale ascent is forecast to be weak. For this reason, convective coverage is forecast to be limited. However, isolated convection could initiate along zones of low-level convergence and maximized surface heating. Any cell that could develop and persist, could obtain an isolated threat for hail and severe gusts. ...Montana... A mid-level trough will move eastward across the northern Rockies on Thursday, as the exit region of an associated jet max moves into the northern High Plains. The western edge of a moist and unstable airmass will likely be in place across parts of central Montana, where model forecast suggest MLCAPE could reach the 1200 to 2500 J/kg range. Convective initiation is expected in the higher terrain of west-central Montana, and this activity will move eastward into the stronger instability during the evening. Additional storms appear likely to develop in northeastern Montana during the mid to late evening, within an upslope flow regime. In addition to the instability, moderate to strong deep-layer shear will be in place over the northern High Plains, mainly due to influence of the mid-level jet. This environment should be favorable for severe storms, with large hail and severe gusts possible in the late afternoon and evening. ..Broyles.. 08/06/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0101 AM CDT Wed Aug 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible Thursday afternoon and evening across the northern Plains. Isolated very large hail and severe gusts will be the primary threats. ...Northern Plains... A mid-level shortwave ridge will move eastward across the northern Plains on Thursday, as southwesterly flow becomes established across the northern High Plains. At the surface, a low will deepen in western South Dakota, as a cold front moves southward across western North Dakota. To the southeast of the front, a moist and unstable airmass will be in place across most of the northern Plains. Surface dewpoints across this airmass should be from the mid 60s to the lower 70s F. Ahead of the front and near the surface low, an axis of strong instability is forecast to develop over the western Dakotas by afternoon. Isolated convective initiation will likely take place near the instability axis and front in the afternoon. Surface-based thunderstorms are expected to develop and move eastward across the northern Plains during the late afternoon and evening. A severe threat appears likely. Forecast soundings near the instability axis at 21Z are impressive, with MLCAPE near 5000 J/kg, 0-6 km shear around 40 knots, and 700-500 mb lapse rates near 8.5 C/km. This environment will be favorable for supercells with large hail. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with the more intense cores. A potential for severe gusts will also exist, with a greater threat in the evening if cells can congeal into a short line segment. An isolated tornado threat could also develop. Any severe threat is expected to persist into the mid to late evening. Further to the east-southeastward into Minnesota, and southward into South Dakota, large-scale ascent is forecast to be weak. For this reason, convective coverage is forecast to be limited. However, isolated convection could initiate along zones of low-level convergence and maximized surface heating. Any cell that could develop and persist, could obtain an isolated threat for hail and severe gusts. ...Montana... A mid-level trough will move eastward across the northern Rockies on Thursday, as the exit region of an associated jet max moves into the northern High Plains. The western edge of a moist and unstable airmass will likely be in place across parts of central Montana, where model forecast suggest MLCAPE could reach the 1200 to 2500 J/kg range. Convective initiation is expected in the higher terrain of west-central Montana, and this activity will move eastward into the stronger instability during the evening. Additional storms appear likely to develop in northeastern Montana during the mid to late evening, within an upslope flow regime. In addition to the instability, moderate to strong deep-layer shear will be in place over the northern High Plains, mainly due to influence of the mid-level jet. This environment should be favorable for severe storms, with large hail and severe gusts possible in the late afternoon and evening. ..Broyles.. 08/06/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0101 AM CDT Wed Aug 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible Thursday afternoon and evening across the northern Plains. Isolated very large hail and severe gusts will be the primary threats. ...Northern Plains... A mid-level shortwave ridge will move eastward across the northern Plains on Thursday, as southwesterly flow becomes established across the northern High Plains. At the surface, a low will deepen in western South Dakota, as a cold front moves southward across western North Dakota. To the southeast of the front, a moist and unstable airmass will be in place across most of the northern Plains. Surface dewpoints across this airmass should be from the mid 60s to the lower 70s F. Ahead of the front and near the surface low, an axis of strong instability is forecast to develop over the western Dakotas by afternoon. Isolated convective initiation will likely take place near the instability axis and front in the afternoon. Surface-based thunderstorms are expected to develop and move eastward across the northern Plains during the late afternoon and evening. A severe threat appears likely. Forecast soundings near the instability axis at 21Z are impressive, with MLCAPE near 5000 J/kg, 0-6 km shear around 40 knots, and 700-500 mb lapse rates near 8.5 C/km. This environment will be favorable for supercells with large hail. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with the more intense cores. A potential for severe gusts will also exist, with a greater threat in the evening if cells can congeal into a short line segment. An isolated tornado threat could also develop. Any severe threat is expected to persist into the mid to late evening. Further to the east-southeastward into Minnesota, and southward into South Dakota, large-scale ascent is forecast to be weak. For this reason, convective coverage is forecast to be limited. However, isolated convection could initiate along zones of low-level convergence and maximized surface heating. Any cell that could develop and persist, could obtain an isolated threat for hail and severe gusts. ...Montana... A mid-level trough will move eastward across the northern Rockies on Thursday, as the exit region of an associated jet max moves into the northern High Plains. The western edge of a moist and unstable airmass will likely be in place across parts of central Montana, where model forecast suggest MLCAPE could reach the 1200 to 2500 J/kg range. Convective initiation is expected in the higher terrain of west-central Montana, and this activity will move eastward into the stronger instability during the evening. Additional storms appear likely to develop in northeastern Montana during the mid to late evening, within an upslope flow regime. In addition to the instability, moderate to strong deep-layer shear will be in place over the northern High Plains, mainly due to influence of the mid-level jet. This environment should be favorable for severe storms, with large hail and severe gusts possible in the late afternoon and evening. ..Broyles.. 08/06/2025 Read more

MD 1894 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...FAR SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST IOWA
Mesoscale Discussion 1894 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1133 PM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025 Areas affected...eastern South Dakota...far southwest Minnesota...northeast Nebraska and northwest Iowa Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 060433Z - 060630Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...A complex of storms may persist with at least isolated severe gust potential as it travels south/southeast across eastern South Dakota and nearby states tonight. DISCUSSION...Storms have congealed into an east-west oriented MCS this evening over northeast SD, and extending just across the MN border. Recently, a 58 kt gust was measured at KATY. As 850 mb winds are nearly due south, minimal eastward shift in the instability gradient has occurred. However, some veering is expected tonight, which may push the effective threat area farther east into MN and IA. The strongest part of the line appears to be where it intersects the warm front/along the instability gradient, near the SD/MN border. If further strengthening can occur, a watch may be considered. At the very least, isolated severe gusts will remain possible across the remainder of eastern SD, far southwest MN, and perhaps into NE/IA later tonight. ..Jewell/Gleason.. 08/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MPX...FSD...OAX...ABR...LBF... LAT...LON 44649935 44929904 45049813 45019740 44979675 43749563 42979556 42279627 42119758 42299865 43209913 44649935 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1213 AM CDT Wed Aug 06 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND PART OF NORTHERN MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the northern/central Plains to the Mid-Mississippi Valley, and over part of northern Minnesota today and tonight. ...Northern/Central Plains to IA/MO and northern MN... Low-amplitude upper ridging will persist across the region today. Moderate upper level west/northwesterly flow around 40 kt at 500 mb will spread across the northern Rockies to the Upper Midwest vicinity amid nebulous large-scale ascent. At the surface, a seasonally moist airmass is in place, with generally 60-70 F dewpoints present beneath a plume of steep midlevel lapse rates (weaker further north). This will support a corridor of moderate to strong instability across SD/NE into parts of MN/IA and vicinity. A decaying MCS may be located over IA or the Lower MO Valley at 12z. Some locally strong wind gusts could occur with this activity before weakening during the morning. Some guidance redevelops convection across the Lower-MO/Mid-MS Valley during the afternoon/evening across this area, possibly aided by any remnant MCV or outflow. This activity would conditionally pose a damaging wind risk. Additional convection may develop near the Black Hills into western NE along surface boundary/residual outflow and within southeasterly low-level upslope flow within a very moist/unstable airmass. Without any stronger forcing mechanism, coverage may be low and confidence is low. However, any storm developing within this strongly unstable airmass will encounter supercell wind profiles. A conditional risk for large hail and damaging winds will exist, but given uncertainty, will maintain Marginal risk (level 1 of 5). Further north across northern MN, a few storms may develop along the southern periphery of the Canadian Prairies shortwave upper trough and surface low. Lapse rates will be weaker across this area and the favorable thermodynamic environment will be narrow. Any stronger storms will likely remain close to the international border, but could produce locally strong gusts or marginal hail. ..Leitman/Weinman.. 08/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1213 AM CDT Wed Aug 06 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND PART OF NORTHERN MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the northern/central Plains to the Mid-Mississippi Valley, and over part of northern Minnesota today and tonight. ...Northern/Central Plains to IA/MO and northern MN... Low-amplitude upper ridging will persist across the region today. Moderate upper level west/northwesterly flow around 40 kt at 500 mb will spread across the northern Rockies to the Upper Midwest vicinity amid nebulous large-scale ascent. At the surface, a seasonally moist airmass is in place, with generally 60-70 F dewpoints present beneath a plume of steep midlevel lapse rates (weaker further north). This will support a corridor of moderate to strong instability across SD/NE into parts of MN/IA and vicinity. A decaying MCS may be located over IA or the Lower MO Valley at 12z. Some locally strong wind gusts could occur with this activity before weakening during the morning. Some guidance redevelops convection across the Lower-MO/Mid-MS Valley during the afternoon/evening across this area, possibly aided by any remnant MCV or outflow. This activity would conditionally pose a damaging wind risk. Additional convection may develop near the Black Hills into western NE along surface boundary/residual outflow and within southeasterly low-level upslope flow within a very moist/unstable airmass. Without any stronger forcing mechanism, coverage may be low and confidence is low. However, any storm developing within this strongly unstable airmass will encounter supercell wind profiles. A conditional risk for large hail and damaging winds will exist, but given uncertainty, will maintain Marginal risk (level 1 of 5). Further north across northern MN, a few storms may develop along the southern periphery of the Canadian Prairies shortwave upper trough and surface low. Lapse rates will be weaker across this area and the favorable thermodynamic environment will be narrow. Any stronger storms will likely remain close to the international border, but could produce locally strong gusts or marginal hail. ..Leitman/Weinman.. 08/06/2025 Read more