Severe Storms

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1213 AM CDT Wed Aug 06 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND PART OF NORTHERN MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the northern/central Plains to the Mid-Mississippi Valley, and over part of northern Minnesota today and tonight. ...Northern/Central Plains to IA/MO and northern MN... Low-amplitude upper ridging will persist across the region today. Moderate upper level west/northwesterly flow around 40 kt at 500 mb will spread across the northern Rockies to the Upper Midwest vicinity amid nebulous large-scale ascent. At the surface, a seasonally moist airmass is in place, with generally 60-70 F dewpoints present beneath a plume of steep midlevel lapse rates (weaker further north). This will support a corridor of moderate to strong instability across SD/NE into parts of MN/IA and vicinity. A decaying MCS may be located over IA or the Lower MO Valley at 12z. Some locally strong wind gusts could occur with this activity before weakening during the morning. Some guidance redevelops convection across the Lower-MO/Mid-MS Valley during the afternoon/evening across this area, possibly aided by any remnant MCV or outflow. This activity would conditionally pose a damaging wind risk. Additional convection may develop near the Black Hills into western NE along surface boundary/residual outflow and within southeasterly low-level upslope flow within a very moist/unstable airmass. Without any stronger forcing mechanism, coverage may be low and confidence is low. However, any storm developing within this strongly unstable airmass will encounter supercell wind profiles. A conditional risk for large hail and damaging winds will exist, but given uncertainty, will maintain Marginal risk (level 1 of 5). Further north across northern MN, a few storms may develop along the southern periphery of the Canadian Prairies shortwave upper trough and surface low. Lapse rates will be weaker across this area and the favorable thermodynamic environment will be narrow. Any stronger storms will likely remain close to the international border, but could produce locally strong gusts or marginal hail. ..Leitman/Weinman.. 08/06/2025 Read more

MD 1893 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 574... FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA
Mesoscale Discussion 1893 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025 Areas affected...central and eastern South Dakota into northern Nebraska Concerning...Tornado Watch 574... Valid 060100Z - 060300Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 574 continues. SUMMARY...A threat of a brief tornado remains over the South Dakota portion of the watch. However, a transition to damaging wind threat is anticipated. DISCUSSION...A large complex of thunderstorms within the warm advection zone over southeast ND continues to build southwestward into northeast SD, with new cells developing along the heated surface trough. Storms mode has been mixed, with clustering and merging outflows. The 00Z ABR sounding was moist, but relatively cool in the low-levels. As such, low-level shear from here northeastward has proved ineffective for tornadoes thus far. However, a substantial southerly low-level jet persists this evening, and instability remains substantial. New cells developing within the surface trough draped across SD could produce a brief tornado before storm mode becomes unfavorable. Most model solutions depict upscale growth into an MCS, propagating southeastward through tonight. Damaging winds should be the main threat in such a scenario. ..Jewell.. 08/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FGF...FSD...OAX...ABR...BIS...LBF...UNR... LAT...LON 42270194 43300137 44070108 44500095 46029948 46099911 46079811 45759749 44729730 43169764 42299842 42109938 41920053 41940133 42060179 42270194 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

WW 0574 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 574 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNE PHP TO 40 ENE MBG TO 45 WNW ABR TO 50 NE ABR. ..JEWELL..08/06/25 ATTN...WFO...BIS...ABR...UNR... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 574 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS SDC013-025-029-037-039-045-049-051-057-059-065-069-089-091-107- 109-115-117-119-129-060240- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BROWN CLARK CODINGTON DAY DEUEL EDMUNDS FAULK GRANT HAMLIN HAND HUGHES HYDE MCPHERSON MARSHALL POTTER ROBERTS SPINK STANLEY SULLY WALWORTH THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0574 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 574 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNE PHP TO 40 ENE MBG TO 45 WNW ABR TO 50 NE ABR. ..JEWELL..08/06/25 ATTN...WFO...BIS...ABR...UNR... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 574 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS SDC013-025-029-037-039-045-049-051-057-059-065-069-089-091-107- 109-115-117-119-129-060240- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BROWN CLARK CODINGTON DAY DEUEL EDMUNDS FAULK GRANT HAMLIN HAND HUGHES HYDE MCPHERSON MARSHALL POTTER ROBERTS SPINK STANLEY SULLY WALWORTH THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0574 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 574 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNE PHP TO 40 ENE MBG TO 45 WNW ABR TO 50 NE ABR. ..JEWELL..08/06/25 ATTN...WFO...BIS...ABR...UNR... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 574 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS SDC013-025-029-037-039-045-049-051-057-059-065-069-089-091-107- 109-115-117-119-129-060240- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BROWN CLARK CODINGTON DAY DEUEL EDMUNDS FAULK GRANT HAMLIN HAND HUGHES HYDE MCPHERSON MARSHALL POTTER ROBERTS SPINK STANLEY SULLY WALWORTH THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 574 TORNADO ND SD 052100Z - 060300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 574 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 400 PM CDT Tue Aug 5 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of South-Central North Dakota North-Central and Central South Dakota * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 400 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop and intensify through the remainder of the afternoon and into the evening. The stronger storms will probably become supercellular and pose a risk for large hail and severe gusts. A couple of tornadoes are possible with the stronger supercells. Upscale growth into a cluster of storms is forecast this evening with the severe threat gradually becoming predominately a wind risk. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles east and west of a line from 45 miles north northeast of Bismarck ND to 20 miles southeast of Pierre SD. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24020. ...Smith Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0745 PM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025 Valid 060100Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH DAKOTA AND FAR SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms with an accompanying risk for large hail and severe wind gusts will persist the remainder of the evening/early overnight. ...Northern Plains Vicinity... Strong to severe storms may persist/develop over the next several hours, mainly across parts of SD ahead of a surface low and cold front. Some marginally severe storms have occurred, with hail from around nickel to half dollar size noted in local storm reports the past few hours. Wind gusts from 45-60 mph have also occurred. Overall, convection outside of the ongoing cluster across southeast ND has not been very robust. Looking at the 00z RAOB from ABR, 0-3km lapse rate are lackluster (around 5.7 C/km), limiting vertical accelerations in the low-levels. Nevertheless, steep midlevel lapse rates are indicated (around 7.5 C/km 700-500 mb) amid 2000+ MLCAPE across SD, decreasing with north and east extent. Vertical shear also remains favorable for storm organization, if more robust convection can evolve behind the ND cluster. Evening CAMs guidance still suggests an MCS may develop across parts of SD downstream into the Mid-MO Valley vicinity overnight. However, stronger capping is evident into NE/IA. Given uncertainty amid an at least modestly favorable environment, severe probabilities have only been trimmed mainly across the western and northern outlook area (WY/MT into ND) where confidence is greatest potential has lessened. Severe probabilities across SD and vicinity will be maintained. ..Leitman.. 08/06/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0745 PM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025 Valid 060100Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH DAKOTA AND FAR SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms with an accompanying risk for large hail and severe wind gusts will persist the remainder of the evening/early overnight. ...Northern Plains Vicinity... Strong to severe storms may persist/develop over the next several hours, mainly across parts of SD ahead of a surface low and cold front. Some marginally severe storms have occurred, with hail from around nickel to half dollar size noted in local storm reports the past few hours. Wind gusts from 45-60 mph have also occurred. Overall, convection outside of the ongoing cluster across southeast ND has not been very robust. Looking at the 00z RAOB from ABR, 0-3km lapse rate are lackluster (around 5.7 C/km), limiting vertical accelerations in the low-levels. Nevertheless, steep midlevel lapse rates are indicated (around 7.5 C/km 700-500 mb) amid 2000+ MLCAPE across SD, decreasing with north and east extent. Vertical shear also remains favorable for storm organization, if more robust convection can evolve behind the ND cluster. Evening CAMs guidance still suggests an MCS may develop across parts of SD downstream into the Mid-MO Valley vicinity overnight. However, stronger capping is evident into NE/IA. Given uncertainty amid an at least modestly favorable environment, severe probabilities have only been trimmed mainly across the western and northern outlook area (WY/MT into ND) where confidence is greatest potential has lessened. Severe probabilities across SD and vicinity will be maintained. ..Leitman.. 08/06/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0745 PM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025 Valid 060100Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH DAKOTA AND FAR SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms with an accompanying risk for large hail and severe wind gusts will persist the remainder of the evening/early overnight. ...Northern Plains Vicinity... Strong to severe storms may persist/develop over the next several hours, mainly across parts of SD ahead of a surface low and cold front. Some marginally severe storms have occurred, with hail from around nickel to half dollar size noted in local storm reports the past few hours. Wind gusts from 45-60 mph have also occurred. Overall, convection outside of the ongoing cluster across southeast ND has not been very robust. Looking at the 00z RAOB from ABR, 0-3km lapse rate are lackluster (around 5.7 C/km), limiting vertical accelerations in the low-levels. Nevertheless, steep midlevel lapse rates are indicated (around 7.5 C/km 700-500 mb) amid 2000+ MLCAPE across SD, decreasing with north and east extent. Vertical shear also remains favorable for storm organization, if more robust convection can evolve behind the ND cluster. Evening CAMs guidance still suggests an MCS may develop across parts of SD downstream into the Mid-MO Valley vicinity overnight. However, stronger capping is evident into NE/IA. Given uncertainty amid an at least modestly favorable environment, severe probabilities have only been trimmed mainly across the western and northern outlook area (WY/MT into ND) where confidence is greatest potential has lessened. Severe probabilities across SD and vicinity will be maintained. ..Leitman.. 08/06/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0745 PM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025 Valid 060100Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH DAKOTA AND FAR SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms with an accompanying risk for large hail and severe wind gusts will persist the remainder of the evening/early overnight. ...Northern Plains Vicinity... Strong to severe storms may persist/develop over the next several hours, mainly across parts of SD ahead of a surface low and cold front. Some marginally severe storms have occurred, with hail from around nickel to half dollar size noted in local storm reports the past few hours. Wind gusts from 45-60 mph have also occurred. Overall, convection outside of the ongoing cluster across southeast ND has not been very robust. Looking at the 00z RAOB from ABR, 0-3km lapse rate are lackluster (around 5.7 C/km), limiting vertical accelerations in the low-levels. Nevertheless, steep midlevel lapse rates are indicated (around 7.5 C/km 700-500 mb) amid 2000+ MLCAPE across SD, decreasing with north and east extent. Vertical shear also remains favorable for storm organization, if more robust convection can evolve behind the ND cluster. Evening CAMs guidance still suggests an MCS may develop across parts of SD downstream into the Mid-MO Valley vicinity overnight. However, stronger capping is evident into NE/IA. Given uncertainty amid an at least modestly favorable environment, severe probabilities have only been trimmed mainly across the western and northern outlook area (WY/MT into ND) where confidence is greatest potential has lessened. Severe probabilities across SD and vicinity will be maintained. ..Leitman.. 08/06/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0745 PM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025 Valid 060100Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH DAKOTA AND FAR SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms with an accompanying risk for large hail and severe wind gusts will persist the remainder of the evening/early overnight. ...Northern Plains Vicinity... Strong to severe storms may persist/develop over the next several hours, mainly across parts of SD ahead of a surface low and cold front. Some marginally severe storms have occurred, with hail from around nickel to half dollar size noted in local storm reports the past few hours. Wind gusts from 45-60 mph have also occurred. Overall, convection outside of the ongoing cluster across southeast ND has not been very robust. Looking at the 00z RAOB from ABR, 0-3km lapse rate are lackluster (around 5.7 C/km), limiting vertical accelerations in the low-levels. Nevertheless, steep midlevel lapse rates are indicated (around 7.5 C/km 700-500 mb) amid 2000+ MLCAPE across SD, decreasing with north and east extent. Vertical shear also remains favorable for storm organization, if more robust convection can evolve behind the ND cluster. Evening CAMs guidance still suggests an MCS may develop across parts of SD downstream into the Mid-MO Valley vicinity overnight. However, stronger capping is evident into NE/IA. Given uncertainty amid an at least modestly favorable environment, severe probabilities have only been trimmed mainly across the western and northern outlook area (WY/MT into ND) where confidence is greatest potential has lessened. Severe probabilities across SD and vicinity will be maintained. ..Leitman.. 08/06/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0745 PM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025 Valid 060100Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH DAKOTA AND FAR SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms with an accompanying risk for large hail and severe wind gusts will persist the remainder of the evening/early overnight. ...Northern Plains Vicinity... Strong to severe storms may persist/develop over the next several hours, mainly across parts of SD ahead of a surface low and cold front. Some marginally severe storms have occurred, with hail from around nickel to half dollar size noted in local storm reports the past few hours. Wind gusts from 45-60 mph have also occurred. Overall, convection outside of the ongoing cluster across southeast ND has not been very robust. Looking at the 00z RAOB from ABR, 0-3km lapse rate are lackluster (around 5.7 C/km), limiting vertical accelerations in the low-levels. Nevertheless, steep midlevel lapse rates are indicated (around 7.5 C/km 700-500 mb) amid 2000+ MLCAPE across SD, decreasing with north and east extent. Vertical shear also remains favorable for storm organization, if more robust convection can evolve behind the ND cluster. Evening CAMs guidance still suggests an MCS may develop across parts of SD downstream into the Mid-MO Valley vicinity overnight. However, stronger capping is evident into NE/IA. Given uncertainty amid an at least modestly favorable environment, severe probabilities have only been trimmed mainly across the western and northern outlook area (WY/MT into ND) where confidence is greatest potential has lessened. Severe probabilities across SD and vicinity will be maintained. ..Leitman.. 08/06/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0745 PM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025 Valid 060100Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH DAKOTA AND FAR SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms with an accompanying risk for large hail and severe wind gusts will persist the remainder of the evening/early overnight. ...Northern Plains Vicinity... Strong to severe storms may persist/develop over the next several hours, mainly across parts of SD ahead of a surface low and cold front. Some marginally severe storms have occurred, with hail from around nickel to half dollar size noted in local storm reports the past few hours. Wind gusts from 45-60 mph have also occurred. Overall, convection outside of the ongoing cluster across southeast ND has not been very robust. Looking at the 00z RAOB from ABR, 0-3km lapse rate are lackluster (around 5.7 C/km), limiting vertical accelerations in the low-levels. Nevertheless, steep midlevel lapse rates are indicated (around 7.5 C/km 700-500 mb) amid 2000+ MLCAPE across SD, decreasing with north and east extent. Vertical shear also remains favorable for storm organization, if more robust convection can evolve behind the ND cluster. Evening CAMs guidance still suggests an MCS may develop across parts of SD downstream into the Mid-MO Valley vicinity overnight. However, stronger capping is evident into NE/IA. Given uncertainty amid an at least modestly favorable environment, severe probabilities have only been trimmed mainly across the western and northern outlook area (WY/MT into ND) where confidence is greatest potential has lessened. Severe probabilities across SD and vicinity will be maintained. ..Leitman.. 08/06/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0745 PM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025 Valid 060100Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH DAKOTA AND FAR SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms with an accompanying risk for large hail and severe wind gusts will persist the remainder of the evening/early overnight. ...Northern Plains Vicinity... Strong to severe storms may persist/develop over the next several hours, mainly across parts of SD ahead of a surface low and cold front. Some marginally severe storms have occurred, with hail from around nickel to half dollar size noted in local storm reports the past few hours. Wind gusts from 45-60 mph have also occurred. Overall, convection outside of the ongoing cluster across southeast ND has not been very robust. Looking at the 00z RAOB from ABR, 0-3km lapse rate are lackluster (around 5.7 C/km), limiting vertical accelerations in the low-levels. Nevertheless, steep midlevel lapse rates are indicated (around 7.5 C/km 700-500 mb) amid 2000+ MLCAPE across SD, decreasing with north and east extent. Vertical shear also remains favorable for storm organization, if more robust convection can evolve behind the ND cluster. Evening CAMs guidance still suggests an MCS may develop across parts of SD downstream into the Mid-MO Valley vicinity overnight. However, stronger capping is evident into NE/IA. Given uncertainty amid an at least modestly favorable environment, severe probabilities have only been trimmed mainly across the western and northern outlook area (WY/MT into ND) where confidence is greatest potential has lessened. Severe probabilities across SD and vicinity will be maintained. ..Leitman.. 08/06/2025 Read more

WW 0574 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 574 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNE PHP TO 10 NNE MBG TO 50 SSW JMS TO 35 E JMS. ..JEWELL..08/06/25 ATTN...WFO...BIS...ABR...UNR... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 574 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NDC021-045-051-060140- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DICKEY LAMOURE MCINTOSH SDC013-021-041-045-049-059-065-069-089-107-115-117-119-129- 060140- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BROWN CAMPBELL DEWEY EDMUNDS FAULK HAND HUGHES HYDE MCPHERSON POTTER SPINK STANLEY SULLY WALWORTH THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

MD 1892 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NORTHEAST WYOMING INTO FAR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 1892 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0521 PM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025 Areas affected...northeast Wyoming into far western South Dakota Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 052221Z - 060015Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Scattered storms may persist for a few hours from the Black Hills into northwest Nebraska, with isolated large hail possible. DISCUSSION...Cool but moist air is pushing southward into the area, with strong heating and a deeply mixed boundary layer ahead of this front. Despite the cooler air mass, the combination of surface convergence and increased dewpoints pushing into the steep-lapse rate environment is aiding storm development currently. Mid to high level westerlies of 30-50 kt in combination with the northeast surface winds in the post-frontal regime should aid cellular storm mode with isolated large hail. Therefore despite the overall weak forcing regime, at least isolated hail is expected for a few hours, but perhaps below threshold for a watch. ..Jewell/Gleason.. 08/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...CYS... LAT...LON 44130569 44420392 44380339 44280303 44110287 43810256 43320233 42810239 42400291 42460348 42840437 43280578 43520597 43780601 44130569 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

MD 1892 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NORTHEAST WYOMING INTO FAR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 1892 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0521 PM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025 Areas affected...northeast Wyoming into far western South Dakota Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 052221Z - 060015Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Scattered storms may persist for a few hours from the Black Hills into northwest Nebraska, with isolated large hail possible. DISCUSSION...Cool but moist air is pushing southward into the area, with strong heating and a deeply mixed boundary layer ahead of this front. Despite the cooler air mass, the combination of surface convergence and increased dewpoints pushing into the steep-lapse rate environment is aiding storm development currently. Mid to high level westerlies of 30-50 kt in combination with the northeast surface winds in the post-frontal regime should aid cellular storm mode with isolated large hail. Therefore despite the overall weak forcing regime, at least isolated hail is expected for a few hours, but perhaps below threshold for a watch. ..Jewell/Gleason.. 08/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...CYS... LAT...LON 44130569 44420392 44380339 44280303 44110287 43810256 43320233 42810239 42400291 42460348 42840437 43280578 43520597 43780601 44130569 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

WW 0574 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 574 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..JEWELL..08/05/25 ATTN...WFO...BIS...ABR...UNR... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 574 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NDC015-021-029-037-043-045-047-051-059-065-085-093-060040- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BURLEIGH DICKEY EMMONS GRANT KIDDER LAMOURE LOGAN MCINTOSH MORTON OLIVER SIOUX STUTSMAN SDC013-021-031-041-045-049-059-065-069-089-107-115-117-119-129- 137-060040- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BROWN CAMPBELL CORSON DEWEY EDMUNDS FAULK HAND HUGHES HYDE MCPHERSON POTTER SPINK STANLEY SULLY WALWORTH ZIEBACH THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE Read more

WW 574 TORNADO ND SD 052100Z - 060300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 574 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 400 PM CDT Tue Aug 5 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of South-Central North Dakota North-Central and Central South Dakota * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 400 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop and intensify through the remainder of the afternoon and into the evening. The stronger storms will probably become supercellular and pose a risk for large hail and severe gusts. A couple of tornadoes are possible with the stronger supercells. Upscale growth into a cluster of storms is forecast this evening with the severe threat gradually becoming predominately a wind risk. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles east and west of a line from 45 miles north northeast of Bismarck ND to 20 miles southeast of Pierre SD. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24020. ...Smith Read more

MD 1891 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHEAST CO...SOUTHWEST KS...WESTERN OK PANHANDLE...AND FAR NORTHERN TX PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 1891 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0512 PM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025 Areas affected...Southeast CO...southwest KS...western OK Panhandle...and far northern TX Panhandle Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 052212Z - 052345Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...An isolated severe risk may persist for the next couple hours. Large hail and locally severe wind gusts are possible with any sustained storms. DISCUSSION...An isolated/discrete supercell has evolved over far southeast CO -- on the eastern periphery of a deeply mixed boundary layer/dryline feature. This storm is now impinging on richer boundary-layer moisture to the east (lower/middle 60s dewpoints), where moderate-strong surface-based buoyancy is in place. This, combined with around 40 kt of effective shear, should continue to support supercellular structure -- with a risk of large hail and locally severe gusts. However, the small updraft size and weak forcing for ascent casts uncertainty on overall storm longevity -- especially given some lingering inhibition at the top of the boundary layer (see AMA 18Z observed sounding). For these reasons, the severe risk is expected to remain localized and brief. ..Weinman/Gleason.. 08/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DDC...AMA...PUB... LAT...LON 36570266 36960285 37440262 37630222 37560178 37150121 36360115 36190163 36300216 36570266 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more