Severe Storms

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0745 PM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025 Valid 060100Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH DAKOTA AND FAR SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms with an accompanying risk for large hail and severe wind gusts will persist the remainder of the evening/early overnight. ...Northern Plains Vicinity... Strong to severe storms may persist/develop over the next several hours, mainly across parts of SD ahead of a surface low and cold front. Some marginally severe storms have occurred, with hail from around nickel to half dollar size noted in local storm reports the past few hours. Wind gusts from 45-60 mph have also occurred. Overall, convection outside of the ongoing cluster across southeast ND has not been very robust. Looking at the 00z RAOB from ABR, 0-3km lapse rate are lackluster (around 5.7 C/km), limiting vertical accelerations in the low-levels. Nevertheless, steep midlevel lapse rates are indicated (around 7.5 C/km 700-500 mb) amid 2000+ MLCAPE across SD, decreasing with north and east extent. Vertical shear also remains favorable for storm organization, if more robust convection can evolve behind the ND cluster. Evening CAMs guidance still suggests an MCS may develop across parts of SD downstream into the Mid-MO Valley vicinity overnight. However, stronger capping is evident into NE/IA. Given uncertainty amid an at least modestly favorable environment, severe probabilities have only been trimmed mainly across the western and northern outlook area (WY/MT into ND) where confidence is greatest potential has lessened. Severe probabilities across SD and vicinity will be maintained. ..Leitman.. 08/06/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0745 PM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025 Valid 060100Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH DAKOTA AND FAR SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms with an accompanying risk for large hail and severe wind gusts will persist the remainder of the evening/early overnight. ...Northern Plains Vicinity... Strong to severe storms may persist/develop over the next several hours, mainly across parts of SD ahead of a surface low and cold front. Some marginally severe storms have occurred, with hail from around nickel to half dollar size noted in local storm reports the past few hours. Wind gusts from 45-60 mph have also occurred. Overall, convection outside of the ongoing cluster across southeast ND has not been very robust. Looking at the 00z RAOB from ABR, 0-3km lapse rate are lackluster (around 5.7 C/km), limiting vertical accelerations in the low-levels. Nevertheless, steep midlevel lapse rates are indicated (around 7.5 C/km 700-500 mb) amid 2000+ MLCAPE across SD, decreasing with north and east extent. Vertical shear also remains favorable for storm organization, if more robust convection can evolve behind the ND cluster. Evening CAMs guidance still suggests an MCS may develop across parts of SD downstream into the Mid-MO Valley vicinity overnight. However, stronger capping is evident into NE/IA. Given uncertainty amid an at least modestly favorable environment, severe probabilities have only been trimmed mainly across the western and northern outlook area (WY/MT into ND) where confidence is greatest potential has lessened. Severe probabilities across SD and vicinity will be maintained. ..Leitman.. 08/06/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0745 PM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025 Valid 060100Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH DAKOTA AND FAR SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms with an accompanying risk for large hail and severe wind gusts will persist the remainder of the evening/early overnight. ...Northern Plains Vicinity... Strong to severe storms may persist/develop over the next several hours, mainly across parts of SD ahead of a surface low and cold front. Some marginally severe storms have occurred, with hail from around nickel to half dollar size noted in local storm reports the past few hours. Wind gusts from 45-60 mph have also occurred. Overall, convection outside of the ongoing cluster across southeast ND has not been very robust. Looking at the 00z RAOB from ABR, 0-3km lapse rate are lackluster (around 5.7 C/km), limiting vertical accelerations in the low-levels. Nevertheless, steep midlevel lapse rates are indicated (around 7.5 C/km 700-500 mb) amid 2000+ MLCAPE across SD, decreasing with north and east extent. Vertical shear also remains favorable for storm organization, if more robust convection can evolve behind the ND cluster. Evening CAMs guidance still suggests an MCS may develop across parts of SD downstream into the Mid-MO Valley vicinity overnight. However, stronger capping is evident into NE/IA. Given uncertainty amid an at least modestly favorable environment, severe probabilities have only been trimmed mainly across the western and northern outlook area (WY/MT into ND) where confidence is greatest potential has lessened. Severe probabilities across SD and vicinity will be maintained. ..Leitman.. 08/06/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0745 PM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025 Valid 060100Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH DAKOTA AND FAR SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms with an accompanying risk for large hail and severe wind gusts will persist the remainder of the evening/early overnight. ...Northern Plains Vicinity... Strong to severe storms may persist/develop over the next several hours, mainly across parts of SD ahead of a surface low and cold front. Some marginally severe storms have occurred, with hail from around nickel to half dollar size noted in local storm reports the past few hours. Wind gusts from 45-60 mph have also occurred. Overall, convection outside of the ongoing cluster across southeast ND has not been very robust. Looking at the 00z RAOB from ABR, 0-3km lapse rate are lackluster (around 5.7 C/km), limiting vertical accelerations in the low-levels. Nevertheless, steep midlevel lapse rates are indicated (around 7.5 C/km 700-500 mb) amid 2000+ MLCAPE across SD, decreasing with north and east extent. Vertical shear also remains favorable for storm organization, if more robust convection can evolve behind the ND cluster. Evening CAMs guidance still suggests an MCS may develop across parts of SD downstream into the Mid-MO Valley vicinity overnight. However, stronger capping is evident into NE/IA. Given uncertainty amid an at least modestly favorable environment, severe probabilities have only been trimmed mainly across the western and northern outlook area (WY/MT into ND) where confidence is greatest potential has lessened. Severe probabilities across SD and vicinity will be maintained. ..Leitman.. 08/06/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0745 PM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025 Valid 060100Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH DAKOTA AND FAR SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms with an accompanying risk for large hail and severe wind gusts will persist the remainder of the evening/early overnight. ...Northern Plains Vicinity... Strong to severe storms may persist/develop over the next several hours, mainly across parts of SD ahead of a surface low and cold front. Some marginally severe storms have occurred, with hail from around nickel to half dollar size noted in local storm reports the past few hours. Wind gusts from 45-60 mph have also occurred. Overall, convection outside of the ongoing cluster across southeast ND has not been very robust. Looking at the 00z RAOB from ABR, 0-3km lapse rate are lackluster (around 5.7 C/km), limiting vertical accelerations in the low-levels. Nevertheless, steep midlevel lapse rates are indicated (around 7.5 C/km 700-500 mb) amid 2000+ MLCAPE across SD, decreasing with north and east extent. Vertical shear also remains favorable for storm organization, if more robust convection can evolve behind the ND cluster. Evening CAMs guidance still suggests an MCS may develop across parts of SD downstream into the Mid-MO Valley vicinity overnight. However, stronger capping is evident into NE/IA. Given uncertainty amid an at least modestly favorable environment, severe probabilities have only been trimmed mainly across the western and northern outlook area (WY/MT into ND) where confidence is greatest potential has lessened. Severe probabilities across SD and vicinity will be maintained. ..Leitman.. 08/06/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0745 PM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025 Valid 060100Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH DAKOTA AND FAR SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms with an accompanying risk for large hail and severe wind gusts will persist the remainder of the evening/early overnight. ...Northern Plains Vicinity... Strong to severe storms may persist/develop over the next several hours, mainly across parts of SD ahead of a surface low and cold front. Some marginally severe storms have occurred, with hail from around nickel to half dollar size noted in local storm reports the past few hours. Wind gusts from 45-60 mph have also occurred. Overall, convection outside of the ongoing cluster across southeast ND has not been very robust. Looking at the 00z RAOB from ABR, 0-3km lapse rate are lackluster (around 5.7 C/km), limiting vertical accelerations in the low-levels. Nevertheless, steep midlevel lapse rates are indicated (around 7.5 C/km 700-500 mb) amid 2000+ MLCAPE across SD, decreasing with north and east extent. Vertical shear also remains favorable for storm organization, if more robust convection can evolve behind the ND cluster. Evening CAMs guidance still suggests an MCS may develop across parts of SD downstream into the Mid-MO Valley vicinity overnight. However, stronger capping is evident into NE/IA. Given uncertainty amid an at least modestly favorable environment, severe probabilities have only been trimmed mainly across the western and northern outlook area (WY/MT into ND) where confidence is greatest potential has lessened. Severe probabilities across SD and vicinity will be maintained. ..Leitman.. 08/06/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0745 PM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025 Valid 060100Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH DAKOTA AND FAR SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms with an accompanying risk for large hail and severe wind gusts will persist the remainder of the evening/early overnight. ...Northern Plains Vicinity... Strong to severe storms may persist/develop over the next several hours, mainly across parts of SD ahead of a surface low and cold front. Some marginally severe storms have occurred, with hail from around nickel to half dollar size noted in local storm reports the past few hours. Wind gusts from 45-60 mph have also occurred. Overall, convection outside of the ongoing cluster across southeast ND has not been very robust. Looking at the 00z RAOB from ABR, 0-3km lapse rate are lackluster (around 5.7 C/km), limiting vertical accelerations in the low-levels. Nevertheless, steep midlevel lapse rates are indicated (around 7.5 C/km 700-500 mb) amid 2000+ MLCAPE across SD, decreasing with north and east extent. Vertical shear also remains favorable for storm organization, if more robust convection can evolve behind the ND cluster. Evening CAMs guidance still suggests an MCS may develop across parts of SD downstream into the Mid-MO Valley vicinity overnight. However, stronger capping is evident into NE/IA. Given uncertainty amid an at least modestly favorable environment, severe probabilities have only been trimmed mainly across the western and northern outlook area (WY/MT into ND) where confidence is greatest potential has lessened. Severe probabilities across SD and vicinity will be maintained. ..Leitman.. 08/06/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0745 PM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025 Valid 060100Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH DAKOTA AND FAR SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms with an accompanying risk for large hail and severe wind gusts will persist the remainder of the evening/early overnight. ...Northern Plains Vicinity... Strong to severe storms may persist/develop over the next several hours, mainly across parts of SD ahead of a surface low and cold front. Some marginally severe storms have occurred, with hail from around nickel to half dollar size noted in local storm reports the past few hours. Wind gusts from 45-60 mph have also occurred. Overall, convection outside of the ongoing cluster across southeast ND has not been very robust. Looking at the 00z RAOB from ABR, 0-3km lapse rate are lackluster (around 5.7 C/km), limiting vertical accelerations in the low-levels. Nevertheless, steep midlevel lapse rates are indicated (around 7.5 C/km 700-500 mb) amid 2000+ MLCAPE across SD, decreasing with north and east extent. Vertical shear also remains favorable for storm organization, if more robust convection can evolve behind the ND cluster. Evening CAMs guidance still suggests an MCS may develop across parts of SD downstream into the Mid-MO Valley vicinity overnight. However, stronger capping is evident into NE/IA. Given uncertainty amid an at least modestly favorable environment, severe probabilities have only been trimmed mainly across the western and northern outlook area (WY/MT into ND) where confidence is greatest potential has lessened. Severe probabilities across SD and vicinity will be maintained. ..Leitman.. 08/06/2025 Read more

WW 0574 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 574 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNE PHP TO 10 NNE MBG TO 50 SSW JMS TO 35 E JMS. ..JEWELL..08/06/25 ATTN...WFO...BIS...ABR...UNR... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 574 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NDC021-045-051-060140- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DICKEY LAMOURE MCINTOSH SDC013-021-041-045-049-059-065-069-089-107-115-117-119-129- 060140- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BROWN CAMPBELL DEWEY EDMUNDS FAULK HAND HUGHES HYDE MCPHERSON POTTER SPINK STANLEY SULLY WALWORTH THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

MD 1892 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NORTHEAST WYOMING INTO FAR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 1892 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0521 PM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025 Areas affected...northeast Wyoming into far western South Dakota Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 052221Z - 060015Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Scattered storms may persist for a few hours from the Black Hills into northwest Nebraska, with isolated large hail possible. DISCUSSION...Cool but moist air is pushing southward into the area, with strong heating and a deeply mixed boundary layer ahead of this front. Despite the cooler air mass, the combination of surface convergence and increased dewpoints pushing into the steep-lapse rate environment is aiding storm development currently. Mid to high level westerlies of 30-50 kt in combination with the northeast surface winds in the post-frontal regime should aid cellular storm mode with isolated large hail. Therefore despite the overall weak forcing regime, at least isolated hail is expected for a few hours, but perhaps below threshold for a watch. ..Jewell/Gleason.. 08/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...CYS... LAT...LON 44130569 44420392 44380339 44280303 44110287 43810256 43320233 42810239 42400291 42460348 42840437 43280578 43520597 43780601 44130569 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

MD 1892 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NORTHEAST WYOMING INTO FAR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 1892 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0521 PM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025 Areas affected...northeast Wyoming into far western South Dakota Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 052221Z - 060015Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Scattered storms may persist for a few hours from the Black Hills into northwest Nebraska, with isolated large hail possible. DISCUSSION...Cool but moist air is pushing southward into the area, with strong heating and a deeply mixed boundary layer ahead of this front. Despite the cooler air mass, the combination of surface convergence and increased dewpoints pushing into the steep-lapse rate environment is aiding storm development currently. Mid to high level westerlies of 30-50 kt in combination with the northeast surface winds in the post-frontal regime should aid cellular storm mode with isolated large hail. Therefore despite the overall weak forcing regime, at least isolated hail is expected for a few hours, but perhaps below threshold for a watch. ..Jewell/Gleason.. 08/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...CYS... LAT...LON 44130569 44420392 44380339 44280303 44110287 43810256 43320233 42810239 42400291 42460348 42840437 43280578 43520597 43780601 44130569 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

WW 0574 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 574 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..JEWELL..08/05/25 ATTN...WFO...BIS...ABR...UNR... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 574 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NDC015-021-029-037-043-045-047-051-059-065-085-093-060040- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BURLEIGH DICKEY EMMONS GRANT KIDDER LAMOURE LOGAN MCINTOSH MORTON OLIVER SIOUX STUTSMAN SDC013-021-031-041-045-049-059-065-069-089-107-115-117-119-129- 137-060040- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BROWN CAMPBELL CORSON DEWEY EDMUNDS FAULK HAND HUGHES HYDE MCPHERSON POTTER SPINK STANLEY SULLY WALWORTH ZIEBACH THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE Read more

WW 574 TORNADO ND SD 052100Z - 060300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 574 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 400 PM CDT Tue Aug 5 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of South-Central North Dakota North-Central and Central South Dakota * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 400 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop and intensify through the remainder of the afternoon and into the evening. The stronger storms will probably become supercellular and pose a risk for large hail and severe gusts. A couple of tornadoes are possible with the stronger supercells. Upscale growth into a cluster of storms is forecast this evening with the severe threat gradually becoming predominately a wind risk. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles east and west of a line from 45 miles north northeast of Bismarck ND to 20 miles southeast of Pierre SD. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24020. ...Smith Read more

MD 1891 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHEAST CO...SOUTHWEST KS...WESTERN OK PANHANDLE...AND FAR NORTHERN TX PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 1891 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0512 PM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025 Areas affected...Southeast CO...southwest KS...western OK Panhandle...and far northern TX Panhandle Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 052212Z - 052345Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...An isolated severe risk may persist for the next couple hours. Large hail and locally severe wind gusts are possible with any sustained storms. DISCUSSION...An isolated/discrete supercell has evolved over far southeast CO -- on the eastern periphery of a deeply mixed boundary layer/dryline feature. This storm is now impinging on richer boundary-layer moisture to the east (lower/middle 60s dewpoints), where moderate-strong surface-based buoyancy is in place. This, combined with around 40 kt of effective shear, should continue to support supercellular structure -- with a risk of large hail and locally severe gusts. However, the small updraft size and weak forcing for ascent casts uncertainty on overall storm longevity -- especially given some lingering inhibition at the top of the boundary layer (see AMA 18Z observed sounding). For these reasons, the severe risk is expected to remain localized and brief. ..Weinman/Gleason.. 08/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DDC...AMA...PUB... LAT...LON 36570266 36960285 37440262 37630222 37560178 37150121 36360115 36190163 36300216 36570266 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Tue Aug 5 21:45:12 UTC 2025.

MD 1890 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND ADJACENT NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 1890 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0240 PM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025 Areas affected...south central North Dakota and adjacent north central South Dakota Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 051940Z - 052145Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Intensifying thunderstorm activity, perhaps including the evolution of a sustained supercell appears probable by 5-7 PM CDT, if not earlier, before transitioning to an organizing, southeastward propagating cluster into this evening. A severe weather watch will likely be needed, but timing remains uncertain. DISCUSSION...In the wake of a generally dissipating cluster of thunderstorms spreading into the Red River Valley, lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection is being maintained across much of the Dakotas, on the northern periphery of a plume of warm and capping elevated mixed-layer air. This includes temperatures as warm as +10 to +12 C around 700 mb, as far northeast as southwestern North Dakota through north central and northeastern South Dakota, beneath which stronger boundary-layer warming and destabilization is ongoing. Around and north through east of the Bismarck ND vicinity, the boundary-layer has been slower to modify in the wake of the preceding convection, but forcing for ascent has been sufficient to overcome inhibition and support renewed thunderstorm development. This has been gradually increasing near the nose of a 30 kt southerly low-level jet, which may strengthen a bit further into early evening. Northward advection of warmer and more moist boundary-layer air along this axis is likely to contribute to substantive further boundary-layer destabilization, and, at some point, a rapid intensification of thunderstorm activity. Once this occurs, in the presence of strong deep-layer shear beneath 30-40 kt westerly 500 mb flow, the environment appears conducive to the evolution of a significant supercell with potential to produce large hail and perhaps a couple of tornadoes, before growing growing upscale into an organizing southeastward propagating cluster by this evening. ..Kerr/Smith.. 08/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...UNR... LAT...LON 46380187 47080062 46989902 46439791 45929837 45549908 45379992 45600092 45870202 46380187 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

WW 0574 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0574 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0574 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0574 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0318 PM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z A mid-level trough will gradually progress across the northwestern U.S. through the weekend, before ejecting into the Plains and zonal flow becoming established west of the Rockies by early next week. Multiple mid-level impulses are poised to pivot around the main upper trough, promoting critically dry and windy conditions across parts of the Interior West toward the end of this week, with isolated dry thunderstorms possible each day through the weekend. ...Days 3-4 (Thursday-Friday) - Great Basin into the Rockies... As multiple mid-level impulses continue to graze the Interior West, 15-25 mph sustained southwesterly surface wind should coincide with 5-15 percent RH Thursday and Friday. Fuels are receptive across the entire region, and 40/70 percent highlights have been added where confidence is highest in the aforementioned dry/windy conditions overlapping for several hours each afternoon. Surface winds should be strongest across the Great Basin on Thursday, where high-end Critical conditions are possible as a 500 mb wind maximum glances by to the north. ...Days 3-6 (Thursday-Sunday) - Portions of the Southwest... Toward the end of the week into the weekend, isolated thunderstorm development is expected each afternoon to the immediate south and east of the Four Corners region. Modest southwesterly 500 mb flow pivoting around an upper ridge will encourage forward motion of any thunderstorms that develop. Given the presence of a hot and dry boundary layer across the Southwest, these storms should be high-based, with at least a mix of wet/dry storms likely. Isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been added on Thursday-Sunday for areas that have experienced minimal rainfall, and where fuels appear to be highly susceptible to lightning-induced ignitions. ..Squitieri.. 08/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0318 PM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z A mid-level trough will gradually progress across the northwestern U.S. through the weekend, before ejecting into the Plains and zonal flow becoming established west of the Rockies by early next week. Multiple mid-level impulses are poised to pivot around the main upper trough, promoting critically dry and windy conditions across parts of the Interior West toward the end of this week, with isolated dry thunderstorms possible each day through the weekend. ...Days 3-4 (Thursday-Friday) - Great Basin into the Rockies... As multiple mid-level impulses continue to graze the Interior West, 15-25 mph sustained southwesterly surface wind should coincide with 5-15 percent RH Thursday and Friday. Fuels are receptive across the entire region, and 40/70 percent highlights have been added where confidence is highest in the aforementioned dry/windy conditions overlapping for several hours each afternoon. Surface winds should be strongest across the Great Basin on Thursday, where high-end Critical conditions are possible as a 500 mb wind maximum glances by to the north. ...Days 3-6 (Thursday-Sunday) - Portions of the Southwest... Toward the end of the week into the weekend, isolated thunderstorm development is expected each afternoon to the immediate south and east of the Four Corners region. Modest southwesterly 500 mb flow pivoting around an upper ridge will encourage forward motion of any thunderstorms that develop. Given the presence of a hot and dry boundary layer across the Southwest, these storms should be high-based, with at least a mix of wet/dry storms likely. Isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been added on Thursday-Sunday for areas that have experienced minimal rainfall, and where fuels appear to be highly susceptible to lightning-induced ignitions. ..Squitieri.. 08/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more