Severe Storms

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0101 AM CDT Wed Aug 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible Thursday afternoon and evening across the northern Plains. Isolated very large hail and severe gusts will be the primary threats. ...Northern Plains... A mid-level shortwave ridge will move eastward across the northern Plains on Thursday, as southwesterly flow becomes established across the northern High Plains. At the surface, a low will deepen in western South Dakota, as a cold front moves southward across western North Dakota. To the southeast of the front, a moist and unstable airmass will be in place across most of the northern Plains. Surface dewpoints across this airmass should be from the mid 60s to the lower 70s F. Ahead of the front and near the surface low, an axis of strong instability is forecast to develop over the western Dakotas by afternoon. Isolated convective initiation will likely take place near the instability axis and front in the afternoon. Surface-based thunderstorms are expected to develop and move eastward across the northern Plains during the late afternoon and evening. A severe threat appears likely. Forecast soundings near the instability axis at 21Z are impressive, with MLCAPE near 5000 J/kg, 0-6 km shear around 40 knots, and 700-500 mb lapse rates near 8.5 C/km. This environment will be favorable for supercells with large hail. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with the more intense cores. A potential for severe gusts will also exist, with a greater threat in the evening if cells can congeal into a short line segment. An isolated tornado threat could also develop. Any severe threat is expected to persist into the mid to late evening. Further to the east-southeastward into Minnesota, and southward into South Dakota, large-scale ascent is forecast to be weak. For this reason, convective coverage is forecast to be limited. However, isolated convection could initiate along zones of low-level convergence and maximized surface heating. Any cell that could develop and persist, could obtain an isolated threat for hail and severe gusts. ...Montana... A mid-level trough will move eastward across the northern Rockies on Thursday, as the exit region of an associated jet max moves into the northern High Plains. The western edge of a moist and unstable airmass will likely be in place across parts of central Montana, where model forecast suggest MLCAPE could reach the 1200 to 2500 J/kg range. Convective initiation is expected in the higher terrain of west-central Montana, and this activity will move eastward into the stronger instability during the evening. Additional storms appear likely to develop in northeastern Montana during the mid to late evening, within an upslope flow regime. In addition to the instability, moderate to strong deep-layer shear will be in place over the northern High Plains, mainly due to influence of the mid-level jet. This environment should be favorable for severe storms, with large hail and severe gusts possible in the late afternoon and evening. ..Broyles.. 08/06/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0101 AM CDT Wed Aug 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible Thursday afternoon and evening across the northern Plains. Isolated very large hail and severe gusts will be the primary threats. ...Northern Plains... A mid-level shortwave ridge will move eastward across the northern Plains on Thursday, as southwesterly flow becomes established across the northern High Plains. At the surface, a low will deepen in western South Dakota, as a cold front moves southward across western North Dakota. To the southeast of the front, a moist and unstable airmass will be in place across most of the northern Plains. Surface dewpoints across this airmass should be from the mid 60s to the lower 70s F. Ahead of the front and near the surface low, an axis of strong instability is forecast to develop over the western Dakotas by afternoon. Isolated convective initiation will likely take place near the instability axis and front in the afternoon. Surface-based thunderstorms are expected to develop and move eastward across the northern Plains during the late afternoon and evening. A severe threat appears likely. Forecast soundings near the instability axis at 21Z are impressive, with MLCAPE near 5000 J/kg, 0-6 km shear around 40 knots, and 700-500 mb lapse rates near 8.5 C/km. This environment will be favorable for supercells with large hail. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with the more intense cores. A potential for severe gusts will also exist, with a greater threat in the evening if cells can congeal into a short line segment. An isolated tornado threat could also develop. Any severe threat is expected to persist into the mid to late evening. Further to the east-southeastward into Minnesota, and southward into South Dakota, large-scale ascent is forecast to be weak. For this reason, convective coverage is forecast to be limited. However, isolated convection could initiate along zones of low-level convergence and maximized surface heating. Any cell that could develop and persist, could obtain an isolated threat for hail and severe gusts. ...Montana... A mid-level trough will move eastward across the northern Rockies on Thursday, as the exit region of an associated jet max moves into the northern High Plains. The western edge of a moist and unstable airmass will likely be in place across parts of central Montana, where model forecast suggest MLCAPE could reach the 1200 to 2500 J/kg range. Convective initiation is expected in the higher terrain of west-central Montana, and this activity will move eastward into the stronger instability during the evening. Additional storms appear likely to develop in northeastern Montana during the mid to late evening, within an upslope flow regime. In addition to the instability, moderate to strong deep-layer shear will be in place over the northern High Plains, mainly due to influence of the mid-level jet. This environment should be favorable for severe storms, with large hail and severe gusts possible in the late afternoon and evening. ..Broyles.. 08/06/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0101 AM CDT Wed Aug 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible Thursday afternoon and evening across the northern Plains. Isolated very large hail and severe gusts will be the primary threats. ...Northern Plains... A mid-level shortwave ridge will move eastward across the northern Plains on Thursday, as southwesterly flow becomes established across the northern High Plains. At the surface, a low will deepen in western South Dakota, as a cold front moves southward across western North Dakota. To the southeast of the front, a moist and unstable airmass will be in place across most of the northern Plains. Surface dewpoints across this airmass should be from the mid 60s to the lower 70s F. Ahead of the front and near the surface low, an axis of strong instability is forecast to develop over the western Dakotas by afternoon. Isolated convective initiation will likely take place near the instability axis and front in the afternoon. Surface-based thunderstorms are expected to develop and move eastward across the northern Plains during the late afternoon and evening. A severe threat appears likely. Forecast soundings near the instability axis at 21Z are impressive, with MLCAPE near 5000 J/kg, 0-6 km shear around 40 knots, and 700-500 mb lapse rates near 8.5 C/km. This environment will be favorable for supercells with large hail. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with the more intense cores. A potential for severe gusts will also exist, with a greater threat in the evening if cells can congeal into a short line segment. An isolated tornado threat could also develop. Any severe threat is expected to persist into the mid to late evening. Further to the east-southeastward into Minnesota, and southward into South Dakota, large-scale ascent is forecast to be weak. For this reason, convective coverage is forecast to be limited. However, isolated convection could initiate along zones of low-level convergence and maximized surface heating. Any cell that could develop and persist, could obtain an isolated threat for hail and severe gusts. ...Montana... A mid-level trough will move eastward across the northern Rockies on Thursday, as the exit region of an associated jet max moves into the northern High Plains. The western edge of a moist and unstable airmass will likely be in place across parts of central Montana, where model forecast suggest MLCAPE could reach the 1200 to 2500 J/kg range. Convective initiation is expected in the higher terrain of west-central Montana, and this activity will move eastward into the stronger instability during the evening. Additional storms appear likely to develop in northeastern Montana during the mid to late evening, within an upslope flow regime. In addition to the instability, moderate to strong deep-layer shear will be in place over the northern High Plains, mainly due to influence of the mid-level jet. This environment should be favorable for severe storms, with large hail and severe gusts possible in the late afternoon and evening. ..Broyles.. 08/06/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0101 AM CDT Wed Aug 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible Thursday afternoon and evening across the northern Plains. Isolated very large hail and severe gusts will be the primary threats. ...Northern Plains... A mid-level shortwave ridge will move eastward across the northern Plains on Thursday, as southwesterly flow becomes established across the northern High Plains. At the surface, a low will deepen in western South Dakota, as a cold front moves southward across western North Dakota. To the southeast of the front, a moist and unstable airmass will be in place across most of the northern Plains. Surface dewpoints across this airmass should be from the mid 60s to the lower 70s F. Ahead of the front and near the surface low, an axis of strong instability is forecast to develop over the western Dakotas by afternoon. Isolated convective initiation will likely take place near the instability axis and front in the afternoon. Surface-based thunderstorms are expected to develop and move eastward across the northern Plains during the late afternoon and evening. A severe threat appears likely. Forecast soundings near the instability axis at 21Z are impressive, with MLCAPE near 5000 J/kg, 0-6 km shear around 40 knots, and 700-500 mb lapse rates near 8.5 C/km. This environment will be favorable for supercells with large hail. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with the more intense cores. A potential for severe gusts will also exist, with a greater threat in the evening if cells can congeal into a short line segment. An isolated tornado threat could also develop. Any severe threat is expected to persist into the mid to late evening. Further to the east-southeastward into Minnesota, and southward into South Dakota, large-scale ascent is forecast to be weak. For this reason, convective coverage is forecast to be limited. However, isolated convection could initiate along zones of low-level convergence and maximized surface heating. Any cell that could develop and persist, could obtain an isolated threat for hail and severe gusts. ...Montana... A mid-level trough will move eastward across the northern Rockies on Thursday, as the exit region of an associated jet max moves into the northern High Plains. The western edge of a moist and unstable airmass will likely be in place across parts of central Montana, where model forecast suggest MLCAPE could reach the 1200 to 2500 J/kg range. Convective initiation is expected in the higher terrain of west-central Montana, and this activity will move eastward into the stronger instability during the evening. Additional storms appear likely to develop in northeastern Montana during the mid to late evening, within an upslope flow regime. In addition to the instability, moderate to strong deep-layer shear will be in place over the northern High Plains, mainly due to influence of the mid-level jet. This environment should be favorable for severe storms, with large hail and severe gusts possible in the late afternoon and evening. ..Broyles.. 08/06/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0101 AM CDT Wed Aug 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible Thursday afternoon and evening across the northern Plains. Isolated very large hail and severe gusts will be the primary threats. ...Northern Plains... A mid-level shortwave ridge will move eastward across the northern Plains on Thursday, as southwesterly flow becomes established across the northern High Plains. At the surface, a low will deepen in western South Dakota, as a cold front moves southward across western North Dakota. To the southeast of the front, a moist and unstable airmass will be in place across most of the northern Plains. Surface dewpoints across this airmass should be from the mid 60s to the lower 70s F. Ahead of the front and near the surface low, an axis of strong instability is forecast to develop over the western Dakotas by afternoon. Isolated convective initiation will likely take place near the instability axis and front in the afternoon. Surface-based thunderstorms are expected to develop and move eastward across the northern Plains during the late afternoon and evening. A severe threat appears likely. Forecast soundings near the instability axis at 21Z are impressive, with MLCAPE near 5000 J/kg, 0-6 km shear around 40 knots, and 700-500 mb lapse rates near 8.5 C/km. This environment will be favorable for supercells with large hail. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with the more intense cores. A potential for severe gusts will also exist, with a greater threat in the evening if cells can congeal into a short line segment. An isolated tornado threat could also develop. Any severe threat is expected to persist into the mid to late evening. Further to the east-southeastward into Minnesota, and southward into South Dakota, large-scale ascent is forecast to be weak. For this reason, convective coverage is forecast to be limited. However, isolated convection could initiate along zones of low-level convergence and maximized surface heating. Any cell that could develop and persist, could obtain an isolated threat for hail and severe gusts. ...Montana... A mid-level trough will move eastward across the northern Rockies on Thursday, as the exit region of an associated jet max moves into the northern High Plains. The western edge of a moist and unstable airmass will likely be in place across parts of central Montana, where model forecast suggest MLCAPE could reach the 1200 to 2500 J/kg range. Convective initiation is expected in the higher terrain of west-central Montana, and this activity will move eastward into the stronger instability during the evening. Additional storms appear likely to develop in northeastern Montana during the mid to late evening, within an upslope flow regime. In addition to the instability, moderate to strong deep-layer shear will be in place over the northern High Plains, mainly due to influence of the mid-level jet. This environment should be favorable for severe storms, with large hail and severe gusts possible in the late afternoon and evening. ..Broyles.. 08/06/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0101 AM CDT Wed Aug 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible Thursday afternoon and evening across the northern Plains. Isolated very large hail and severe gusts will be the primary threats. ...Northern Plains... A mid-level shortwave ridge will move eastward across the northern Plains on Thursday, as southwesterly flow becomes established across the northern High Plains. At the surface, a low will deepen in western South Dakota, as a cold front moves southward across western North Dakota. To the southeast of the front, a moist and unstable airmass will be in place across most of the northern Plains. Surface dewpoints across this airmass should be from the mid 60s to the lower 70s F. Ahead of the front and near the surface low, an axis of strong instability is forecast to develop over the western Dakotas by afternoon. Isolated convective initiation will likely take place near the instability axis and front in the afternoon. Surface-based thunderstorms are expected to develop and move eastward across the northern Plains during the late afternoon and evening. A severe threat appears likely. Forecast soundings near the instability axis at 21Z are impressive, with MLCAPE near 5000 J/kg, 0-6 km shear around 40 knots, and 700-500 mb lapse rates near 8.5 C/km. This environment will be favorable for supercells with large hail. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with the more intense cores. A potential for severe gusts will also exist, with a greater threat in the evening if cells can congeal into a short line segment. An isolated tornado threat could also develop. Any severe threat is expected to persist into the mid to late evening. Further to the east-southeastward into Minnesota, and southward into South Dakota, large-scale ascent is forecast to be weak. For this reason, convective coverage is forecast to be limited. However, isolated convection could initiate along zones of low-level convergence and maximized surface heating. Any cell that could develop and persist, could obtain an isolated threat for hail and severe gusts. ...Montana... A mid-level trough will move eastward across the northern Rockies on Thursday, as the exit region of an associated jet max moves into the northern High Plains. The western edge of a moist and unstable airmass will likely be in place across parts of central Montana, where model forecast suggest MLCAPE could reach the 1200 to 2500 J/kg range. Convective initiation is expected in the higher terrain of west-central Montana, and this activity will move eastward into the stronger instability during the evening. Additional storms appear likely to develop in northeastern Montana during the mid to late evening, within an upslope flow regime. In addition to the instability, moderate to strong deep-layer shear will be in place over the northern High Plains, mainly due to influence of the mid-level jet. This environment should be favorable for severe storms, with large hail and severe gusts possible in the late afternoon and evening. ..Broyles.. 08/06/2025 Read more

MD 1894 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...FAR SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST IOWA
Mesoscale Discussion 1894 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1133 PM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025 Areas affected...eastern South Dakota...far southwest Minnesota...northeast Nebraska and northwest Iowa Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 060433Z - 060630Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...A complex of storms may persist with at least isolated severe gust potential as it travels south/southeast across eastern South Dakota and nearby states tonight. DISCUSSION...Storms have congealed into an east-west oriented MCS this evening over northeast SD, and extending just across the MN border. Recently, a 58 kt gust was measured at KATY. As 850 mb winds are nearly due south, minimal eastward shift in the instability gradient has occurred. However, some veering is expected tonight, which may push the effective threat area farther east into MN and IA. The strongest part of the line appears to be where it intersects the warm front/along the instability gradient, near the SD/MN border. If further strengthening can occur, a watch may be considered. At the very least, isolated severe gusts will remain possible across the remainder of eastern SD, far southwest MN, and perhaps into NE/IA later tonight. ..Jewell/Gleason.. 08/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MPX...FSD...OAX...ABR...LBF... LAT...LON 44649935 44929904 45049813 45019740 44979675 43749563 42979556 42279627 42119758 42299865 43209913 44649935 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1213 AM CDT Wed Aug 06 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND PART OF NORTHERN MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the northern/central Plains to the Mid-Mississippi Valley, and over part of northern Minnesota today and tonight. ...Northern/Central Plains to IA/MO and northern MN... Low-amplitude upper ridging will persist across the region today. Moderate upper level west/northwesterly flow around 40 kt at 500 mb will spread across the northern Rockies to the Upper Midwest vicinity amid nebulous large-scale ascent. At the surface, a seasonally moist airmass is in place, with generally 60-70 F dewpoints present beneath a plume of steep midlevel lapse rates (weaker further north). This will support a corridor of moderate to strong instability across SD/NE into parts of MN/IA and vicinity. A decaying MCS may be located over IA or the Lower MO Valley at 12z. Some locally strong wind gusts could occur with this activity before weakening during the morning. Some guidance redevelops convection across the Lower-MO/Mid-MS Valley during the afternoon/evening across this area, possibly aided by any remnant MCV or outflow. This activity would conditionally pose a damaging wind risk. Additional convection may develop near the Black Hills into western NE along surface boundary/residual outflow and within southeasterly low-level upslope flow within a very moist/unstable airmass. Without any stronger forcing mechanism, coverage may be low and confidence is low. However, any storm developing within this strongly unstable airmass will encounter supercell wind profiles. A conditional risk for large hail and damaging winds will exist, but given uncertainty, will maintain Marginal risk (level 1 of 5). Further north across northern MN, a few storms may develop along the southern periphery of the Canadian Prairies shortwave upper trough and surface low. Lapse rates will be weaker across this area and the favorable thermodynamic environment will be narrow. Any stronger storms will likely remain close to the international border, but could produce locally strong gusts or marginal hail. ..Leitman/Weinman.. 08/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1213 AM CDT Wed Aug 06 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND PART OF NORTHERN MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the northern/central Plains to the Mid-Mississippi Valley, and over part of northern Minnesota today and tonight. ...Northern/Central Plains to IA/MO and northern MN... Low-amplitude upper ridging will persist across the region today. Moderate upper level west/northwesterly flow around 40 kt at 500 mb will spread across the northern Rockies to the Upper Midwest vicinity amid nebulous large-scale ascent. At the surface, a seasonally moist airmass is in place, with generally 60-70 F dewpoints present beneath a plume of steep midlevel lapse rates (weaker further north). This will support a corridor of moderate to strong instability across SD/NE into parts of MN/IA and vicinity. A decaying MCS may be located over IA or the Lower MO Valley at 12z. Some locally strong wind gusts could occur with this activity before weakening during the morning. Some guidance redevelops convection across the Lower-MO/Mid-MS Valley during the afternoon/evening across this area, possibly aided by any remnant MCV or outflow. This activity would conditionally pose a damaging wind risk. Additional convection may develop near the Black Hills into western NE along surface boundary/residual outflow and within southeasterly low-level upslope flow within a very moist/unstable airmass. Without any stronger forcing mechanism, coverage may be low and confidence is low. However, any storm developing within this strongly unstable airmass will encounter supercell wind profiles. A conditional risk for large hail and damaging winds will exist, but given uncertainty, will maintain Marginal risk (level 1 of 5). Further north across northern MN, a few storms may develop along the southern periphery of the Canadian Prairies shortwave upper trough and surface low. Lapse rates will be weaker across this area and the favorable thermodynamic environment will be narrow. Any stronger storms will likely remain close to the international border, but could produce locally strong gusts or marginal hail. ..Leitman/Weinman.. 08/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1213 AM CDT Wed Aug 06 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND PART OF NORTHERN MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the northern/central Plains to the Mid-Mississippi Valley, and over part of northern Minnesota today and tonight. ...Northern/Central Plains to IA/MO and northern MN... Low-amplitude upper ridging will persist across the region today. Moderate upper level west/northwesterly flow around 40 kt at 500 mb will spread across the northern Rockies to the Upper Midwest vicinity amid nebulous large-scale ascent. At the surface, a seasonally moist airmass is in place, with generally 60-70 F dewpoints present beneath a plume of steep midlevel lapse rates (weaker further north). This will support a corridor of moderate to strong instability across SD/NE into parts of MN/IA and vicinity. A decaying MCS may be located over IA or the Lower MO Valley at 12z. Some locally strong wind gusts could occur with this activity before weakening during the morning. Some guidance redevelops convection across the Lower-MO/Mid-MS Valley during the afternoon/evening across this area, possibly aided by any remnant MCV or outflow. This activity would conditionally pose a damaging wind risk. Additional convection may develop near the Black Hills into western NE along surface boundary/residual outflow and within southeasterly low-level upslope flow within a very moist/unstable airmass. Without any stronger forcing mechanism, coverage may be low and confidence is low. However, any storm developing within this strongly unstable airmass will encounter supercell wind profiles. A conditional risk for large hail and damaging winds will exist, but given uncertainty, will maintain Marginal risk (level 1 of 5). Further north across northern MN, a few storms may develop along the southern periphery of the Canadian Prairies shortwave upper trough and surface low. Lapse rates will be weaker across this area and the favorable thermodynamic environment will be narrow. Any stronger storms will likely remain close to the international border, but could produce locally strong gusts or marginal hail. ..Leitman/Weinman.. 08/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1213 AM CDT Wed Aug 06 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND PART OF NORTHERN MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the northern/central Plains to the Mid-Mississippi Valley, and over part of northern Minnesota today and tonight. ...Northern/Central Plains to IA/MO and northern MN... Low-amplitude upper ridging will persist across the region today. Moderate upper level west/northwesterly flow around 40 kt at 500 mb will spread across the northern Rockies to the Upper Midwest vicinity amid nebulous large-scale ascent. At the surface, a seasonally moist airmass is in place, with generally 60-70 F dewpoints present beneath a plume of steep midlevel lapse rates (weaker further north). This will support a corridor of moderate to strong instability across SD/NE into parts of MN/IA and vicinity. A decaying MCS may be located over IA or the Lower MO Valley at 12z. Some locally strong wind gusts could occur with this activity before weakening during the morning. Some guidance redevelops convection across the Lower-MO/Mid-MS Valley during the afternoon/evening across this area, possibly aided by any remnant MCV or outflow. This activity would conditionally pose a damaging wind risk. Additional convection may develop near the Black Hills into western NE along surface boundary/residual outflow and within southeasterly low-level upslope flow within a very moist/unstable airmass. Without any stronger forcing mechanism, coverage may be low and confidence is low. However, any storm developing within this strongly unstable airmass will encounter supercell wind profiles. A conditional risk for large hail and damaging winds will exist, but given uncertainty, will maintain Marginal risk (level 1 of 5). Further north across northern MN, a few storms may develop along the southern periphery of the Canadian Prairies shortwave upper trough and surface low. Lapse rates will be weaker across this area and the favorable thermodynamic environment will be narrow. Any stronger storms will likely remain close to the international border, but could produce locally strong gusts or marginal hail. ..Leitman/Weinman.. 08/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1213 AM CDT Wed Aug 06 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND PART OF NORTHERN MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the northern/central Plains to the Mid-Mississippi Valley, and over part of northern Minnesota today and tonight. ...Northern/Central Plains to IA/MO and northern MN... Low-amplitude upper ridging will persist across the region today. Moderate upper level west/northwesterly flow around 40 kt at 500 mb will spread across the northern Rockies to the Upper Midwest vicinity amid nebulous large-scale ascent. At the surface, a seasonally moist airmass is in place, with generally 60-70 F dewpoints present beneath a plume of steep midlevel lapse rates (weaker further north). This will support a corridor of moderate to strong instability across SD/NE into parts of MN/IA and vicinity. A decaying MCS may be located over IA or the Lower MO Valley at 12z. Some locally strong wind gusts could occur with this activity before weakening during the morning. Some guidance redevelops convection across the Lower-MO/Mid-MS Valley during the afternoon/evening across this area, possibly aided by any remnant MCV or outflow. This activity would conditionally pose a damaging wind risk. Additional convection may develop near the Black Hills into western NE along surface boundary/residual outflow and within southeasterly low-level upslope flow within a very moist/unstable airmass. Without any stronger forcing mechanism, coverage may be low and confidence is low. However, any storm developing within this strongly unstable airmass will encounter supercell wind profiles. A conditional risk for large hail and damaging winds will exist, but given uncertainty, will maintain Marginal risk (level 1 of 5). Further north across northern MN, a few storms may develop along the southern periphery of the Canadian Prairies shortwave upper trough and surface low. Lapse rates will be weaker across this area and the favorable thermodynamic environment will be narrow. Any stronger storms will likely remain close to the international border, but could produce locally strong gusts or marginal hail. ..Leitman/Weinman.. 08/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1213 AM CDT Wed Aug 06 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND PART OF NORTHERN MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the northern/central Plains to the Mid-Mississippi Valley, and over part of northern Minnesota today and tonight. ...Northern/Central Plains to IA/MO and northern MN... Low-amplitude upper ridging will persist across the region today. Moderate upper level west/northwesterly flow around 40 kt at 500 mb will spread across the northern Rockies to the Upper Midwest vicinity amid nebulous large-scale ascent. At the surface, a seasonally moist airmass is in place, with generally 60-70 F dewpoints present beneath a plume of steep midlevel lapse rates (weaker further north). This will support a corridor of moderate to strong instability across SD/NE into parts of MN/IA and vicinity. A decaying MCS may be located over IA or the Lower MO Valley at 12z. Some locally strong wind gusts could occur with this activity before weakening during the morning. Some guidance redevelops convection across the Lower-MO/Mid-MS Valley during the afternoon/evening across this area, possibly aided by any remnant MCV or outflow. This activity would conditionally pose a damaging wind risk. Additional convection may develop near the Black Hills into western NE along surface boundary/residual outflow and within southeasterly low-level upslope flow within a very moist/unstable airmass. Without any stronger forcing mechanism, coverage may be low and confidence is low. However, any storm developing within this strongly unstable airmass will encounter supercell wind profiles. A conditional risk for large hail and damaging winds will exist, but given uncertainty, will maintain Marginal risk (level 1 of 5). Further north across northern MN, a few storms may develop along the southern periphery of the Canadian Prairies shortwave upper trough and surface low. Lapse rates will be weaker across this area and the favorable thermodynamic environment will be narrow. Any stronger storms will likely remain close to the international border, but could produce locally strong gusts or marginal hail. ..Leitman/Weinman.. 08/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1213 AM CDT Wed Aug 06 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND PART OF NORTHERN MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the northern/central Plains to the Mid-Mississippi Valley, and over part of northern Minnesota today and tonight. ...Northern/Central Plains to IA/MO and northern MN... Low-amplitude upper ridging will persist across the region today. Moderate upper level west/northwesterly flow around 40 kt at 500 mb will spread across the northern Rockies to the Upper Midwest vicinity amid nebulous large-scale ascent. At the surface, a seasonally moist airmass is in place, with generally 60-70 F dewpoints present beneath a plume of steep midlevel lapse rates (weaker further north). This will support a corridor of moderate to strong instability across SD/NE into parts of MN/IA and vicinity. A decaying MCS may be located over IA or the Lower MO Valley at 12z. Some locally strong wind gusts could occur with this activity before weakening during the morning. Some guidance redevelops convection across the Lower-MO/Mid-MS Valley during the afternoon/evening across this area, possibly aided by any remnant MCV or outflow. This activity would conditionally pose a damaging wind risk. Additional convection may develop near the Black Hills into western NE along surface boundary/residual outflow and within southeasterly low-level upslope flow within a very moist/unstable airmass. Without any stronger forcing mechanism, coverage may be low and confidence is low. However, any storm developing within this strongly unstable airmass will encounter supercell wind profiles. A conditional risk for large hail and damaging winds will exist, but given uncertainty, will maintain Marginal risk (level 1 of 5). Further north across northern MN, a few storms may develop along the southern periphery of the Canadian Prairies shortwave upper trough and surface low. Lapse rates will be weaker across this area and the favorable thermodynamic environment will be narrow. Any stronger storms will likely remain close to the international border, but could produce locally strong gusts or marginal hail. ..Leitman/Weinman.. 08/06/2025 Read more

MD 1893 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 574... FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA
Mesoscale Discussion 1893 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025 Areas affected...central and eastern South Dakota into northern Nebraska Concerning...Tornado Watch 574... Valid 060100Z - 060300Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 574 continues. SUMMARY...A threat of a brief tornado remains over the South Dakota portion of the watch. However, a transition to damaging wind threat is anticipated. DISCUSSION...A large complex of thunderstorms within the warm advection zone over southeast ND continues to build southwestward into northeast SD, with new cells developing along the heated surface trough. Storms mode has been mixed, with clustering and merging outflows. The 00Z ABR sounding was moist, but relatively cool in the low-levels. As such, low-level shear from here northeastward has proved ineffective for tornadoes thus far. However, a substantial southerly low-level jet persists this evening, and instability remains substantial. New cells developing within the surface trough draped across SD could produce a brief tornado before storm mode becomes unfavorable. Most model solutions depict upscale growth into an MCS, propagating southeastward through tonight. Damaging winds should be the main threat in such a scenario. ..Jewell.. 08/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FGF...FSD...OAX...ABR...BIS...LBF...UNR... LAT...LON 42270194 43300137 44070108 44500095 46029948 46099911 46079811 45759749 44729730 43169764 42299842 42109938 41920053 41940133 42060179 42270194 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

WW 0574 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 574 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNE PHP TO 40 ENE MBG TO 45 WNW ABR TO 50 NE ABR. ..JEWELL..08/06/25 ATTN...WFO...BIS...ABR...UNR... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 574 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS SDC013-025-029-037-039-045-049-051-057-059-065-069-089-091-107- 109-115-117-119-129-060240- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BROWN CLARK CODINGTON DAY DEUEL EDMUNDS FAULK GRANT HAMLIN HAND HUGHES HYDE MCPHERSON MARSHALL POTTER ROBERTS SPINK STANLEY SULLY WALWORTH THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0574 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 574 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNE PHP TO 40 ENE MBG TO 45 WNW ABR TO 50 NE ABR. ..JEWELL..08/06/25 ATTN...WFO...BIS...ABR...UNR... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 574 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS SDC013-025-029-037-039-045-049-051-057-059-065-069-089-091-107- 109-115-117-119-129-060240- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BROWN CLARK CODINGTON DAY DEUEL EDMUNDS FAULK GRANT HAMLIN HAND HUGHES HYDE MCPHERSON MARSHALL POTTER ROBERTS SPINK STANLEY SULLY WALWORTH THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0574 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 574 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNE PHP TO 40 ENE MBG TO 45 WNW ABR TO 50 NE ABR. ..JEWELL..08/06/25 ATTN...WFO...BIS...ABR...UNR... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 574 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS SDC013-025-029-037-039-045-049-051-057-059-065-069-089-091-107- 109-115-117-119-129-060240- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BROWN CLARK CODINGTON DAY DEUEL EDMUNDS FAULK GRANT HAMLIN HAND HUGHES HYDE MCPHERSON MARSHALL POTTER ROBERTS SPINK STANLEY SULLY WALWORTH THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 574 TORNADO ND SD 052100Z - 060300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 574 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 400 PM CDT Tue Aug 5 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of South-Central North Dakota North-Central and Central South Dakota * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 400 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop and intensify through the remainder of the afternoon and into the evening. The stronger storms will probably become supercellular and pose a risk for large hail and severe gusts. A couple of tornadoes are possible with the stronger supercells. Upscale growth into a cluster of storms is forecast this evening with the severe threat gradually becoming predominately a wind risk. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles east and west of a line from 45 miles north northeast of Bismarck ND to 20 miles southeast of Pierre SD. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24020. ...Smith Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0745 PM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025 Valid 060100Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH DAKOTA AND FAR SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms with an accompanying risk for large hail and severe wind gusts will persist the remainder of the evening/early overnight. ...Northern Plains Vicinity... Strong to severe storms may persist/develop over the next several hours, mainly across parts of SD ahead of a surface low and cold front. Some marginally severe storms have occurred, with hail from around nickel to half dollar size noted in local storm reports the past few hours. Wind gusts from 45-60 mph have also occurred. Overall, convection outside of the ongoing cluster across southeast ND has not been very robust. Looking at the 00z RAOB from ABR, 0-3km lapse rate are lackluster (around 5.7 C/km), limiting vertical accelerations in the low-levels. Nevertheless, steep midlevel lapse rates are indicated (around 7.5 C/km 700-500 mb) amid 2000+ MLCAPE across SD, decreasing with north and east extent. Vertical shear also remains favorable for storm organization, if more robust convection can evolve behind the ND cluster. Evening CAMs guidance still suggests an MCS may develop across parts of SD downstream into the Mid-MO Valley vicinity overnight. However, stronger capping is evident into NE/IA. Given uncertainty amid an at least modestly favorable environment, severe probabilities have only been trimmed mainly across the western and northern outlook area (WY/MT into ND) where confidence is greatest potential has lessened. Severe probabilities across SD and vicinity will be maintained. ..Leitman.. 08/06/2025 Read more