Severe Storms

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0337 PM CDT Wed Aug 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z A mid-level trough will gradually traverse the Interior West through the remainder of this week, ejecting into the Plains by this weekend. Thereafter, upper ridging will prevail west of the Rockies through most of next week. The passage of the mid-level trough on Day 3 (Friday) will encourage 20+ mph sustained southwesterly surface winds to overlap with 10-20 percent RH on a widespread basis across portions of the Great Basin into the Rockies. Given receptive fuels, up to 70 percent Critical probabilities have been introduced, particularly for areas expected to experience dry/windy conditions for several hours Friday afternoon. Across the Four Corners into the Southwest, enough mid-level moisture will linger each day through Sunday to support thunderstorm initiation given adequate mid-level buoyancy and orographic lift. These storms will develop atop a dry boundary layer, which should encourage at least a few dry strikes amid dry fuel beds, warranting 10 percent dry thunderstorm probabilities into the weekend. ..Squitieri.. 08/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0337 PM CDT Wed Aug 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z A mid-level trough will gradually traverse the Interior West through the remainder of this week, ejecting into the Plains by this weekend. Thereafter, upper ridging will prevail west of the Rockies through most of next week. The passage of the mid-level trough on Day 3 (Friday) will encourage 20+ mph sustained southwesterly surface winds to overlap with 10-20 percent RH on a widespread basis across portions of the Great Basin into the Rockies. Given receptive fuels, up to 70 percent Critical probabilities have been introduced, particularly for areas expected to experience dry/windy conditions for several hours Friday afternoon. Across the Four Corners into the Southwest, enough mid-level moisture will linger each day through Sunday to support thunderstorm initiation given adequate mid-level buoyancy and orographic lift. These storms will develop atop a dry boundary layer, which should encourage at least a few dry strikes amid dry fuel beds, warranting 10 percent dry thunderstorm probabilities into the weekend. ..Squitieri.. 08/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0337 PM CDT Wed Aug 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z A mid-level trough will gradually traverse the Interior West through the remainder of this week, ejecting into the Plains by this weekend. Thereafter, upper ridging will prevail west of the Rockies through most of next week. The passage of the mid-level trough on Day 3 (Friday) will encourage 20+ mph sustained southwesterly surface winds to overlap with 10-20 percent RH on a widespread basis across portions of the Great Basin into the Rockies. Given receptive fuels, up to 70 percent Critical probabilities have been introduced, particularly for areas expected to experience dry/windy conditions for several hours Friday afternoon. Across the Four Corners into the Southwest, enough mid-level moisture will linger each day through Sunday to support thunderstorm initiation given adequate mid-level buoyancy and orographic lift. These storms will develop atop a dry boundary layer, which should encourage at least a few dry strikes amid dry fuel beds, warranting 10 percent dry thunderstorm probabilities into the weekend. ..Squitieri.. 08/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0337 PM CDT Wed Aug 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z A mid-level trough will gradually traverse the Interior West through the remainder of this week, ejecting into the Plains by this weekend. Thereafter, upper ridging will prevail west of the Rockies through most of next week. The passage of the mid-level trough on Day 3 (Friday) will encourage 20+ mph sustained southwesterly surface winds to overlap with 10-20 percent RH on a widespread basis across portions of the Great Basin into the Rockies. Given receptive fuels, up to 70 percent Critical probabilities have been introduced, particularly for areas expected to experience dry/windy conditions for several hours Friday afternoon. Across the Four Corners into the Southwest, enough mid-level moisture will linger each day through Sunday to support thunderstorm initiation given adequate mid-level buoyancy and orographic lift. These storms will develop atop a dry boundary layer, which should encourage at least a few dry strikes amid dry fuel beds, warranting 10 percent dry thunderstorm probabilities into the weekend. ..Squitieri.. 08/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Wed Aug 06 2025 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the northern/central Plains to the Mid-Mississippi Valley, and over part of northern Minnesota this afternoon and tonight. ...20z Update... The prior forecast remains largely on track with minimal changes. Current observations show stout capping in place over much of the central Plains. However, robust surface heating of a seasonably moist air mass (surface dewpoints upper 60s to low 70s F) is ongoing across parts of South Dakota and northern Nebraska. With continued heating this afternoon, gradual destabilization is expected to continue. Initial high-based convection should develop late this afternoon across eastern WY and western SD, and will gradually move eastward into moderate to large buoyancy. With 40 kt of mid-level flow also in place, there exists the potential for isolated supercells with hail and damaging gusts as the primary threats. The main uncertainty for higher severe probabilities today remains the nebulous forcing for ascent which should continue to favor sparse/isolated storm coverage into early evening. ...Eastern Plains and Missouri Valley to Midwest... Afternoon model guidance continues to show an increase in convection tonight associated with low-level warm air advection from the expected 30-40 kt low-level jet. The highest confidence in scattered storms is from the eastern half of SD/NE into parts of IA and southern MN late tonight. With steep mid-level lapse rates above a predominately stable boundary layer, hail and isolated damaging gust are possible. The MRGL risk was adjusted over southern NE to better match recent model guidance for higher storm coverage. Otherwise, the outlook remains unchanged. See the prior discussion for the previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 08/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Wed Aug 06 2025/ ...Northern/Central Plains into the Mid MS Valley... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a quasi-zonal flow regime from the northern Intermountain region east into the central Great Plains. A disturbance along the ND/Canadian border will continue east into the western ON vicinity late tonight. Weak mid-level height rises are forecast over the northern Great Plains downstream of a trough moving east into the northwestern CONUS from the eastern Pacific. A belt of stronger mid-level flow (i.e. around 40 kt at 500 mb) will extend across the region, and diurnal heating of the moist airmass in place will foster moderate to strong buoyancy. Forecast soundings show a vigorous combination of shear/buoyancy but nebulous forcing mechanisms suggest storm coverage later today/tonight will likely remain isolated/sparse. Little in the way of large-scale forcing for ascent will contribute to suppressing convective development through at least mid afternoon. Considerable uncertainty in storm development is apparent in convection-allowing models and some of these models show isolated storms perhaps favoring the greater Black Hills area. Will maintain a Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) despite favorable environmental conditions for supercells. Later tonight in association with low-level warm-air advection, a cluster or two of storms may evolve from the eastern half of SD/NE into the lower MO Valley/mid MS Valley. An isolated hail/wind threat could accompany this activity. ...Northern MN... A few storms may develop along the southern periphery of the Canadian Prairies shortwave upper trough and surface low. Lapse rates will be weaker across this area and the favorable thermodynamic environment will be narrow. Any stronger storms will likely remain close to the international border, but could produce locally strong gusts or marginal hail. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Wed Aug 06 2025 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the northern/central Plains to the Mid-Mississippi Valley, and over part of northern Minnesota this afternoon and tonight. ...20z Update... The prior forecast remains largely on track with minimal changes. Current observations show stout capping in place over much of the central Plains. However, robust surface heating of a seasonably moist air mass (surface dewpoints upper 60s to low 70s F) is ongoing across parts of South Dakota and northern Nebraska. With continued heating this afternoon, gradual destabilization is expected to continue. Initial high-based convection should develop late this afternoon across eastern WY and western SD, and will gradually move eastward into moderate to large buoyancy. With 40 kt of mid-level flow also in place, there exists the potential for isolated supercells with hail and damaging gusts as the primary threats. The main uncertainty for higher severe probabilities today remains the nebulous forcing for ascent which should continue to favor sparse/isolated storm coverage into early evening. ...Eastern Plains and Missouri Valley to Midwest... Afternoon model guidance continues to show an increase in convection tonight associated with low-level warm air advection from the expected 30-40 kt low-level jet. The highest confidence in scattered storms is from the eastern half of SD/NE into parts of IA and southern MN late tonight. With steep mid-level lapse rates above a predominately stable boundary layer, hail and isolated damaging gust are possible. The MRGL risk was adjusted over southern NE to better match recent model guidance for higher storm coverage. Otherwise, the outlook remains unchanged. See the prior discussion for the previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 08/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Wed Aug 06 2025/ ...Northern/Central Plains into the Mid MS Valley... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a quasi-zonal flow regime from the northern Intermountain region east into the central Great Plains. A disturbance along the ND/Canadian border will continue east into the western ON vicinity late tonight. Weak mid-level height rises are forecast over the northern Great Plains downstream of a trough moving east into the northwestern CONUS from the eastern Pacific. A belt of stronger mid-level flow (i.e. around 40 kt at 500 mb) will extend across the region, and diurnal heating of the moist airmass in place will foster moderate to strong buoyancy. Forecast soundings show a vigorous combination of shear/buoyancy but nebulous forcing mechanisms suggest storm coverage later today/tonight will likely remain isolated/sparse. Little in the way of large-scale forcing for ascent will contribute to suppressing convective development through at least mid afternoon. Considerable uncertainty in storm development is apparent in convection-allowing models and some of these models show isolated storms perhaps favoring the greater Black Hills area. Will maintain a Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) despite favorable environmental conditions for supercells. Later tonight in association with low-level warm-air advection, a cluster or two of storms may evolve from the eastern half of SD/NE into the lower MO Valley/mid MS Valley. An isolated hail/wind threat could accompany this activity. ...Northern MN... A few storms may develop along the southern periphery of the Canadian Prairies shortwave upper trough and surface low. Lapse rates will be weaker across this area and the favorable thermodynamic environment will be narrow. Any stronger storms will likely remain close to the international border, but could produce locally strong gusts or marginal hail. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Wed Aug 06 2025 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the northern/central Plains to the Mid-Mississippi Valley, and over part of northern Minnesota this afternoon and tonight. ...20z Update... The prior forecast remains largely on track with minimal changes. Current observations show stout capping in place over much of the central Plains. However, robust surface heating of a seasonably moist air mass (surface dewpoints upper 60s to low 70s F) is ongoing across parts of South Dakota and northern Nebraska. With continued heating this afternoon, gradual destabilization is expected to continue. Initial high-based convection should develop late this afternoon across eastern WY and western SD, and will gradually move eastward into moderate to large buoyancy. With 40 kt of mid-level flow also in place, there exists the potential for isolated supercells with hail and damaging gusts as the primary threats. The main uncertainty for higher severe probabilities today remains the nebulous forcing for ascent which should continue to favor sparse/isolated storm coverage into early evening. ...Eastern Plains and Missouri Valley to Midwest... Afternoon model guidance continues to show an increase in convection tonight associated with low-level warm air advection from the expected 30-40 kt low-level jet. The highest confidence in scattered storms is from the eastern half of SD/NE into parts of IA and southern MN late tonight. With steep mid-level lapse rates above a predominately stable boundary layer, hail and isolated damaging gust are possible. The MRGL risk was adjusted over southern NE to better match recent model guidance for higher storm coverage. Otherwise, the outlook remains unchanged. See the prior discussion for the previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 08/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Wed Aug 06 2025/ ...Northern/Central Plains into the Mid MS Valley... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a quasi-zonal flow regime from the northern Intermountain region east into the central Great Plains. A disturbance along the ND/Canadian border will continue east into the western ON vicinity late tonight. Weak mid-level height rises are forecast over the northern Great Plains downstream of a trough moving east into the northwestern CONUS from the eastern Pacific. A belt of stronger mid-level flow (i.e. around 40 kt at 500 mb) will extend across the region, and diurnal heating of the moist airmass in place will foster moderate to strong buoyancy. Forecast soundings show a vigorous combination of shear/buoyancy but nebulous forcing mechanisms suggest storm coverage later today/tonight will likely remain isolated/sparse. Little in the way of large-scale forcing for ascent will contribute to suppressing convective development through at least mid afternoon. Considerable uncertainty in storm development is apparent in convection-allowing models and some of these models show isolated storms perhaps favoring the greater Black Hills area. Will maintain a Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) despite favorable environmental conditions for supercells. Later tonight in association with low-level warm-air advection, a cluster or two of storms may evolve from the eastern half of SD/NE into the lower MO Valley/mid MS Valley. An isolated hail/wind threat could accompany this activity. ...Northern MN... A few storms may develop along the southern periphery of the Canadian Prairies shortwave upper trough and surface low. Lapse rates will be weaker across this area and the favorable thermodynamic environment will be narrow. Any stronger storms will likely remain close to the international border, but could produce locally strong gusts or marginal hail. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Wed Aug 06 2025 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the northern/central Plains to the Mid-Mississippi Valley, and over part of northern Minnesota this afternoon and tonight. ...20z Update... The prior forecast remains largely on track with minimal changes. Current observations show stout capping in place over much of the central Plains. However, robust surface heating of a seasonably moist air mass (surface dewpoints upper 60s to low 70s F) is ongoing across parts of South Dakota and northern Nebraska. With continued heating this afternoon, gradual destabilization is expected to continue. Initial high-based convection should develop late this afternoon across eastern WY and western SD, and will gradually move eastward into moderate to large buoyancy. With 40 kt of mid-level flow also in place, there exists the potential for isolated supercells with hail and damaging gusts as the primary threats. The main uncertainty for higher severe probabilities today remains the nebulous forcing for ascent which should continue to favor sparse/isolated storm coverage into early evening. ...Eastern Plains and Missouri Valley to Midwest... Afternoon model guidance continues to show an increase in convection tonight associated with low-level warm air advection from the expected 30-40 kt low-level jet. The highest confidence in scattered storms is from the eastern half of SD/NE into parts of IA and southern MN late tonight. With steep mid-level lapse rates above a predominately stable boundary layer, hail and isolated damaging gust are possible. The MRGL risk was adjusted over southern NE to better match recent model guidance for higher storm coverage. Otherwise, the outlook remains unchanged. See the prior discussion for the previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 08/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Wed Aug 06 2025/ ...Northern/Central Plains into the Mid MS Valley... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a quasi-zonal flow regime from the northern Intermountain region east into the central Great Plains. A disturbance along the ND/Canadian border will continue east into the western ON vicinity late tonight. Weak mid-level height rises are forecast over the northern Great Plains downstream of a trough moving east into the northwestern CONUS from the eastern Pacific. A belt of stronger mid-level flow (i.e. around 40 kt at 500 mb) will extend across the region, and diurnal heating of the moist airmass in place will foster moderate to strong buoyancy. Forecast soundings show a vigorous combination of shear/buoyancy but nebulous forcing mechanisms suggest storm coverage later today/tonight will likely remain isolated/sparse. Little in the way of large-scale forcing for ascent will contribute to suppressing convective development through at least mid afternoon. Considerable uncertainty in storm development is apparent in convection-allowing models and some of these models show isolated storms perhaps favoring the greater Black Hills area. Will maintain a Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) despite favorable environmental conditions for supercells. Later tonight in association with low-level warm-air advection, a cluster or two of storms may evolve from the eastern half of SD/NE into the lower MO Valley/mid MS Valley. An isolated hail/wind threat could accompany this activity. ...Northern MN... A few storms may develop along the southern periphery of the Canadian Prairies shortwave upper trough and surface low. Lapse rates will be weaker across this area and the favorable thermodynamic environment will be narrow. Any stronger storms will likely remain close to the international border, but could produce locally strong gusts or marginal hail. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Wed Aug 06 2025 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the northern/central Plains to the Mid-Mississippi Valley, and over part of northern Minnesota this afternoon and tonight. ...20z Update... The prior forecast remains largely on track with minimal changes. Current observations show stout capping in place over much of the central Plains. However, robust surface heating of a seasonably moist air mass (surface dewpoints upper 60s to low 70s F) is ongoing across parts of South Dakota and northern Nebraska. With continued heating this afternoon, gradual destabilization is expected to continue. Initial high-based convection should develop late this afternoon across eastern WY and western SD, and will gradually move eastward into moderate to large buoyancy. With 40 kt of mid-level flow also in place, there exists the potential for isolated supercells with hail and damaging gusts as the primary threats. The main uncertainty for higher severe probabilities today remains the nebulous forcing for ascent which should continue to favor sparse/isolated storm coverage into early evening. ...Eastern Plains and Missouri Valley to Midwest... Afternoon model guidance continues to show an increase in convection tonight associated with low-level warm air advection from the expected 30-40 kt low-level jet. The highest confidence in scattered storms is from the eastern half of SD/NE into parts of IA and southern MN late tonight. With steep mid-level lapse rates above a predominately stable boundary layer, hail and isolated damaging gust are possible. The MRGL risk was adjusted over southern NE to better match recent model guidance for higher storm coverage. Otherwise, the outlook remains unchanged. See the prior discussion for the previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 08/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Wed Aug 06 2025/ ...Northern/Central Plains into the Mid MS Valley... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a quasi-zonal flow regime from the northern Intermountain region east into the central Great Plains. A disturbance along the ND/Canadian border will continue east into the western ON vicinity late tonight. Weak mid-level height rises are forecast over the northern Great Plains downstream of a trough moving east into the northwestern CONUS from the eastern Pacific. A belt of stronger mid-level flow (i.e. around 40 kt at 500 mb) will extend across the region, and diurnal heating of the moist airmass in place will foster moderate to strong buoyancy. Forecast soundings show a vigorous combination of shear/buoyancy but nebulous forcing mechanisms suggest storm coverage later today/tonight will likely remain isolated/sparse. Little in the way of large-scale forcing for ascent will contribute to suppressing convective development through at least mid afternoon. Considerable uncertainty in storm development is apparent in convection-allowing models and some of these models show isolated storms perhaps favoring the greater Black Hills area. Will maintain a Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) despite favorable environmental conditions for supercells. Later tonight in association with low-level warm-air advection, a cluster or two of storms may evolve from the eastern half of SD/NE into the lower MO Valley/mid MS Valley. An isolated hail/wind threat could accompany this activity. ...Northern MN... A few storms may develop along the southern periphery of the Canadian Prairies shortwave upper trough and surface low. Lapse rates will be weaker across this area and the favorable thermodynamic environment will be narrow. Any stronger storms will likely remain close to the international border, but could produce locally strong gusts or marginal hail. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Wed Aug 06 2025 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the northern/central Plains to the Mid-Mississippi Valley, and over part of northern Minnesota this afternoon and tonight. ...20z Update... The prior forecast remains largely on track with minimal changes. Current observations show stout capping in place over much of the central Plains. However, robust surface heating of a seasonably moist air mass (surface dewpoints upper 60s to low 70s F) is ongoing across parts of South Dakota and northern Nebraska. With continued heating this afternoon, gradual destabilization is expected to continue. Initial high-based convection should develop late this afternoon across eastern WY and western SD, and will gradually move eastward into moderate to large buoyancy. With 40 kt of mid-level flow also in place, there exists the potential for isolated supercells with hail and damaging gusts as the primary threats. The main uncertainty for higher severe probabilities today remains the nebulous forcing for ascent which should continue to favor sparse/isolated storm coverage into early evening. ...Eastern Plains and Missouri Valley to Midwest... Afternoon model guidance continues to show an increase in convection tonight associated with low-level warm air advection from the expected 30-40 kt low-level jet. The highest confidence in scattered storms is from the eastern half of SD/NE into parts of IA and southern MN late tonight. With steep mid-level lapse rates above a predominately stable boundary layer, hail and isolated damaging gust are possible. The MRGL risk was adjusted over southern NE to better match recent model guidance for higher storm coverage. Otherwise, the outlook remains unchanged. See the prior discussion for the previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 08/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Wed Aug 06 2025/ ...Northern/Central Plains into the Mid MS Valley... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a quasi-zonal flow regime from the northern Intermountain region east into the central Great Plains. A disturbance along the ND/Canadian border will continue east into the western ON vicinity late tonight. Weak mid-level height rises are forecast over the northern Great Plains downstream of a trough moving east into the northwestern CONUS from the eastern Pacific. A belt of stronger mid-level flow (i.e. around 40 kt at 500 mb) will extend across the region, and diurnal heating of the moist airmass in place will foster moderate to strong buoyancy. Forecast soundings show a vigorous combination of shear/buoyancy but nebulous forcing mechanisms suggest storm coverage later today/tonight will likely remain isolated/sparse. Little in the way of large-scale forcing for ascent will contribute to suppressing convective development through at least mid afternoon. Considerable uncertainty in storm development is apparent in convection-allowing models and some of these models show isolated storms perhaps favoring the greater Black Hills area. Will maintain a Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) despite favorable environmental conditions for supercells. Later tonight in association with low-level warm-air advection, a cluster or two of storms may evolve from the eastern half of SD/NE into the lower MO Valley/mid MS Valley. An isolated hail/wind threat could accompany this activity. ...Northern MN... A few storms may develop along the southern periphery of the Canadian Prairies shortwave upper trough and surface low. Lapse rates will be weaker across this area and the favorable thermodynamic environment will be narrow. Any stronger storms will likely remain close to the international border, but could produce locally strong gusts or marginal hail. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Wed Aug 06 2025 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the northern/central Plains to the Mid-Mississippi Valley, and over part of northern Minnesota this afternoon and tonight. ...20z Update... The prior forecast remains largely on track with minimal changes. Current observations show stout capping in place over much of the central Plains. However, robust surface heating of a seasonably moist air mass (surface dewpoints upper 60s to low 70s F) is ongoing across parts of South Dakota and northern Nebraska. With continued heating this afternoon, gradual destabilization is expected to continue. Initial high-based convection should develop late this afternoon across eastern WY and western SD, and will gradually move eastward into moderate to large buoyancy. With 40 kt of mid-level flow also in place, there exists the potential for isolated supercells with hail and damaging gusts as the primary threats. The main uncertainty for higher severe probabilities today remains the nebulous forcing for ascent which should continue to favor sparse/isolated storm coverage into early evening. ...Eastern Plains and Missouri Valley to Midwest... Afternoon model guidance continues to show an increase in convection tonight associated with low-level warm air advection from the expected 30-40 kt low-level jet. The highest confidence in scattered storms is from the eastern half of SD/NE into parts of IA and southern MN late tonight. With steep mid-level lapse rates above a predominately stable boundary layer, hail and isolated damaging gust are possible. The MRGL risk was adjusted over southern NE to better match recent model guidance for higher storm coverage. Otherwise, the outlook remains unchanged. See the prior discussion for the previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 08/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Wed Aug 06 2025/ ...Northern/Central Plains into the Mid MS Valley... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a quasi-zonal flow regime from the northern Intermountain region east into the central Great Plains. A disturbance along the ND/Canadian border will continue east into the western ON vicinity late tonight. Weak mid-level height rises are forecast over the northern Great Plains downstream of a trough moving east into the northwestern CONUS from the eastern Pacific. A belt of stronger mid-level flow (i.e. around 40 kt at 500 mb) will extend across the region, and diurnal heating of the moist airmass in place will foster moderate to strong buoyancy. Forecast soundings show a vigorous combination of shear/buoyancy but nebulous forcing mechanisms suggest storm coverage later today/tonight will likely remain isolated/sparse. Little in the way of large-scale forcing for ascent will contribute to suppressing convective development through at least mid afternoon. Considerable uncertainty in storm development is apparent in convection-allowing models and some of these models show isolated storms perhaps favoring the greater Black Hills area. Will maintain a Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) despite favorable environmental conditions for supercells. Later tonight in association with low-level warm-air advection, a cluster or two of storms may evolve from the eastern half of SD/NE into the lower MO Valley/mid MS Valley. An isolated hail/wind threat could accompany this activity. ...Northern MN... A few storms may develop along the southern periphery of the Canadian Prairies shortwave upper trough and surface low. Lapse rates will be weaker across this area and the favorable thermodynamic environment will be narrow. Any stronger storms will likely remain close to the international border, but could produce locally strong gusts or marginal hail. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Wed Aug 06 2025 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the northern/central Plains to the Mid-Mississippi Valley, and over part of northern Minnesota this afternoon and tonight. ...20z Update... The prior forecast remains largely on track with minimal changes. Current observations show stout capping in place over much of the central Plains. However, robust surface heating of a seasonably moist air mass (surface dewpoints upper 60s to low 70s F) is ongoing across parts of South Dakota and northern Nebraska. With continued heating this afternoon, gradual destabilization is expected to continue. Initial high-based convection should develop late this afternoon across eastern WY and western SD, and will gradually move eastward into moderate to large buoyancy. With 40 kt of mid-level flow also in place, there exists the potential for isolated supercells with hail and damaging gusts as the primary threats. The main uncertainty for higher severe probabilities today remains the nebulous forcing for ascent which should continue to favor sparse/isolated storm coverage into early evening. ...Eastern Plains and Missouri Valley to Midwest... Afternoon model guidance continues to show an increase in convection tonight associated with low-level warm air advection from the expected 30-40 kt low-level jet. The highest confidence in scattered storms is from the eastern half of SD/NE into parts of IA and southern MN late tonight. With steep mid-level lapse rates above a predominately stable boundary layer, hail and isolated damaging gust are possible. The MRGL risk was adjusted over southern NE to better match recent model guidance for higher storm coverage. Otherwise, the outlook remains unchanged. See the prior discussion for the previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 08/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Wed Aug 06 2025/ ...Northern/Central Plains into the Mid MS Valley... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a quasi-zonal flow regime from the northern Intermountain region east into the central Great Plains. A disturbance along the ND/Canadian border will continue east into the western ON vicinity late tonight. Weak mid-level height rises are forecast over the northern Great Plains downstream of a trough moving east into the northwestern CONUS from the eastern Pacific. A belt of stronger mid-level flow (i.e. around 40 kt at 500 mb) will extend across the region, and diurnal heating of the moist airmass in place will foster moderate to strong buoyancy. Forecast soundings show a vigorous combination of shear/buoyancy but nebulous forcing mechanisms suggest storm coverage later today/tonight will likely remain isolated/sparse. Little in the way of large-scale forcing for ascent will contribute to suppressing convective development through at least mid afternoon. Considerable uncertainty in storm development is apparent in convection-allowing models and some of these models show isolated storms perhaps favoring the greater Black Hills area. Will maintain a Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) despite favorable environmental conditions for supercells. Later tonight in association with low-level warm-air advection, a cluster or two of storms may evolve from the eastern half of SD/NE into the lower MO Valley/mid MS Valley. An isolated hail/wind threat could accompany this activity. ...Northern MN... A few storms may develop along the southern periphery of the Canadian Prairies shortwave upper trough and surface low. Lapse rates will be weaker across this area and the favorable thermodynamic environment will be narrow. Any stronger storms will likely remain close to the international border, but could produce locally strong gusts or marginal hail. Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Wed Aug 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF THE NORTH... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across a portion of the northern Great Plains and Upper Midwest, mainly from late afternoon into the night on Friday. ...North-Central States... A messy/complex setup is expected across the region with low confidence on a higher-end severe weather episode. In the wake of multiple MCSs on Thursday night, one of which may yield high-end severe across ND, remnant convective outflows may modulate mesoscale enhancement of severe potential along the cold front Friday. This front is progged to be centered from the Red River Valley across eastern SD by late afternoon. The bulk of large-scale ascent and strong mid/upper-level flow will lag behind this front in the northern Great Plains, typical of amplified shortwave troughs impinging on a ridge emanating north-northeast from a stout anticyclone over the Southwest. Isolated severe hail from elevated convection will be possible north/east of the Black Hills. Low-level convergence and increasing ascent towards the front should yield scattered storm development by evening in the Red River Valley, with more isolated development across the Mid-MO Valley vicinity overnight. Large buoyancy should be prevalent ahead of the front which will aid in scattered severe-storm potential. Anafrontal aspects of the synoptic setup and near-parallel alignment of the deep-layer shear vector with respect to the front should support a mainly cluster type mode with a mix of severe wind/hail. Supercells should be more favored in eastern ND and during initial development along the front, which could pose a threat for significant severe hail. Otherwise, a few transient supercells are possible Friday evening/night near the Black Hills to NE Panhandle vicinity where a lobe of enhanced buoyancy persists in the post-frontal airmass. ..Grams.. 08/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Wed Aug 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF THE NORTH... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across a portion of the northern Great Plains and Upper Midwest, mainly from late afternoon into the night on Friday. ...North-Central States... A messy/complex setup is expected across the region with low confidence on a higher-end severe weather episode. In the wake of multiple MCSs on Thursday night, one of which may yield high-end severe across ND, remnant convective outflows may modulate mesoscale enhancement of severe potential along the cold front Friday. This front is progged to be centered from the Red River Valley across eastern SD by late afternoon. The bulk of large-scale ascent and strong mid/upper-level flow will lag behind this front in the northern Great Plains, typical of amplified shortwave troughs impinging on a ridge emanating north-northeast from a stout anticyclone over the Southwest. Isolated severe hail from elevated convection will be possible north/east of the Black Hills. Low-level convergence and increasing ascent towards the front should yield scattered storm development by evening in the Red River Valley, with more isolated development across the Mid-MO Valley vicinity overnight. Large buoyancy should be prevalent ahead of the front which will aid in scattered severe-storm potential. Anafrontal aspects of the synoptic setup and near-parallel alignment of the deep-layer shear vector with respect to the front should support a mainly cluster type mode with a mix of severe wind/hail. Supercells should be more favored in eastern ND and during initial development along the front, which could pose a threat for significant severe hail. Otherwise, a few transient supercells are possible Friday evening/night near the Black Hills to NE Panhandle vicinity where a lobe of enhanced buoyancy persists in the post-frontal airmass. ..Grams.. 08/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Wed Aug 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF THE NORTH... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across a portion of the northern Great Plains and Upper Midwest, mainly from late afternoon into the night on Friday. ...North-Central States... A messy/complex setup is expected across the region with low confidence on a higher-end severe weather episode. In the wake of multiple MCSs on Thursday night, one of which may yield high-end severe across ND, remnant convective outflows may modulate mesoscale enhancement of severe potential along the cold front Friday. This front is progged to be centered from the Red River Valley across eastern SD by late afternoon. The bulk of large-scale ascent and strong mid/upper-level flow will lag behind this front in the northern Great Plains, typical of amplified shortwave troughs impinging on a ridge emanating north-northeast from a stout anticyclone over the Southwest. Isolated severe hail from elevated convection will be possible north/east of the Black Hills. Low-level convergence and increasing ascent towards the front should yield scattered storm development by evening in the Red River Valley, with more isolated development across the Mid-MO Valley vicinity overnight. Large buoyancy should be prevalent ahead of the front which will aid in scattered severe-storm potential. Anafrontal aspects of the synoptic setup and near-parallel alignment of the deep-layer shear vector with respect to the front should support a mainly cluster type mode with a mix of severe wind/hail. Supercells should be more favored in eastern ND and during initial development along the front, which could pose a threat for significant severe hail. Otherwise, a few transient supercells are possible Friday evening/night near the Black Hills to NE Panhandle vicinity where a lobe of enhanced buoyancy persists in the post-frontal airmass. ..Grams.. 08/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Wed Aug 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF THE NORTH... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across a portion of the northern Great Plains and Upper Midwest, mainly from late afternoon into the night on Friday. ...North-Central States... A messy/complex setup is expected across the region with low confidence on a higher-end severe weather episode. In the wake of multiple MCSs on Thursday night, one of which may yield high-end severe across ND, remnant convective outflows may modulate mesoscale enhancement of severe potential along the cold front Friday. This front is progged to be centered from the Red River Valley across eastern SD by late afternoon. The bulk of large-scale ascent and strong mid/upper-level flow will lag behind this front in the northern Great Plains, typical of amplified shortwave troughs impinging on a ridge emanating north-northeast from a stout anticyclone over the Southwest. Isolated severe hail from elevated convection will be possible north/east of the Black Hills. Low-level convergence and increasing ascent towards the front should yield scattered storm development by evening in the Red River Valley, with more isolated development across the Mid-MO Valley vicinity overnight. Large buoyancy should be prevalent ahead of the front which will aid in scattered severe-storm potential. Anafrontal aspects of the synoptic setup and near-parallel alignment of the deep-layer shear vector with respect to the front should support a mainly cluster type mode with a mix of severe wind/hail. Supercells should be more favored in eastern ND and during initial development along the front, which could pose a threat for significant severe hail. Otherwise, a few transient supercells are possible Friday evening/night near the Black Hills to NE Panhandle vicinity where a lobe of enhanced buoyancy persists in the post-frontal airmass. ..Grams.. 08/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Wed Aug 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF THE NORTH... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across a portion of the northern Great Plains and Upper Midwest, mainly from late afternoon into the night on Friday. ...North-Central States... A messy/complex setup is expected across the region with low confidence on a higher-end severe weather episode. In the wake of multiple MCSs on Thursday night, one of which may yield high-end severe across ND, remnant convective outflows may modulate mesoscale enhancement of severe potential along the cold front Friday. This front is progged to be centered from the Red River Valley across eastern SD by late afternoon. The bulk of large-scale ascent and strong mid/upper-level flow will lag behind this front in the northern Great Plains, typical of amplified shortwave troughs impinging on a ridge emanating north-northeast from a stout anticyclone over the Southwest. Isolated severe hail from elevated convection will be possible north/east of the Black Hills. Low-level convergence and increasing ascent towards the front should yield scattered storm development by evening in the Red River Valley, with more isolated development across the Mid-MO Valley vicinity overnight. Large buoyancy should be prevalent ahead of the front which will aid in scattered severe-storm potential. Anafrontal aspects of the synoptic setup and near-parallel alignment of the deep-layer shear vector with respect to the front should support a mainly cluster type mode with a mix of severe wind/hail. Supercells should be more favored in eastern ND and during initial development along the front, which could pose a threat for significant severe hail. Otherwise, a few transient supercells are possible Friday evening/night near the Black Hills to NE Panhandle vicinity where a lobe of enhanced buoyancy persists in the post-frontal airmass. ..Grams.. 08/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Wed Aug 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF THE NORTH... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across a portion of the northern Great Plains and Upper Midwest, mainly from late afternoon into the night on Friday. ...North-Central States... A messy/complex setup is expected across the region with low confidence on a higher-end severe weather episode. In the wake of multiple MCSs on Thursday night, one of which may yield high-end severe across ND, remnant convective outflows may modulate mesoscale enhancement of severe potential along the cold front Friday. This front is progged to be centered from the Red River Valley across eastern SD by late afternoon. The bulk of large-scale ascent and strong mid/upper-level flow will lag behind this front in the northern Great Plains, typical of amplified shortwave troughs impinging on a ridge emanating north-northeast from a stout anticyclone over the Southwest. Isolated severe hail from elevated convection will be possible north/east of the Black Hills. Low-level convergence and increasing ascent towards the front should yield scattered storm development by evening in the Red River Valley, with more isolated development across the Mid-MO Valley vicinity overnight. Large buoyancy should be prevalent ahead of the front which will aid in scattered severe-storm potential. Anafrontal aspects of the synoptic setup and near-parallel alignment of the deep-layer shear vector with respect to the front should support a mainly cluster type mode with a mix of severe wind/hail. Supercells should be more favored in eastern ND and during initial development along the front, which could pose a threat for significant severe hail. Otherwise, a few transient supercells are possible Friday evening/night near the Black Hills to NE Panhandle vicinity where a lobe of enhanced buoyancy persists in the post-frontal airmass. ..Grams.. 08/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Wed Aug 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF THE NORTH... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across a portion of the northern Great Plains and Upper Midwest, mainly from late afternoon into the night on Friday. ...North-Central States... A messy/complex setup is expected across the region with low confidence on a higher-end severe weather episode. In the wake of multiple MCSs on Thursday night, one of which may yield high-end severe across ND, remnant convective outflows may modulate mesoscale enhancement of severe potential along the cold front Friday. This front is progged to be centered from the Red River Valley across eastern SD by late afternoon. The bulk of large-scale ascent and strong mid/upper-level flow will lag behind this front in the northern Great Plains, typical of amplified shortwave troughs impinging on a ridge emanating north-northeast from a stout anticyclone over the Southwest. Isolated severe hail from elevated convection will be possible north/east of the Black Hills. Low-level convergence and increasing ascent towards the front should yield scattered storm development by evening in the Red River Valley, with more isolated development across the Mid-MO Valley vicinity overnight. Large buoyancy should be prevalent ahead of the front which will aid in scattered severe-storm potential. Anafrontal aspects of the synoptic setup and near-parallel alignment of the deep-layer shear vector with respect to the front should support a mainly cluster type mode with a mix of severe wind/hail. Supercells should be more favored in eastern ND and during initial development along the front, which could pose a threat for significant severe hail. Otherwise, a few transient supercells are possible Friday evening/night near the Black Hills to NE Panhandle vicinity where a lobe of enhanced buoyancy persists in the post-frontal airmass. ..Grams.. 08/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Wed Aug 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF THE NORTH... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across a portion of the northern Great Plains and Upper Midwest, mainly from late afternoon into the night on Friday. ...North-Central States... A messy/complex setup is expected across the region with low confidence on a higher-end severe weather episode. In the wake of multiple MCSs on Thursday night, one of which may yield high-end severe across ND, remnant convective outflows may modulate mesoscale enhancement of severe potential along the cold front Friday. This front is progged to be centered from the Red River Valley across eastern SD by late afternoon. The bulk of large-scale ascent and strong mid/upper-level flow will lag behind this front in the northern Great Plains, typical of amplified shortwave troughs impinging on a ridge emanating north-northeast from a stout anticyclone over the Southwest. Isolated severe hail from elevated convection will be possible north/east of the Black Hills. Low-level convergence and increasing ascent towards the front should yield scattered storm development by evening in the Red River Valley, with more isolated development across the Mid-MO Valley vicinity overnight. Large buoyancy should be prevalent ahead of the front which will aid in scattered severe-storm potential. Anafrontal aspects of the synoptic setup and near-parallel alignment of the deep-layer shear vector with respect to the front should support a mainly cluster type mode with a mix of severe wind/hail. Supercells should be more favored in eastern ND and during initial development along the front, which could pose a threat for significant severe hail. Otherwise, a few transient supercells are possible Friday evening/night near the Black Hills to NE Panhandle vicinity where a lobe of enhanced buoyancy persists in the post-frontal airmass. ..Grams.. 08/06/2025 Read more