Severe Storms

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1138 AM CDT Thu Aug 07 2025 Valid 071700Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES... A narrow area delineating potential for isolated dry thunderstorms was added to portions of central Idaho, northwest Wyoming, and far southwest Montana. A small zone of isolated storms is possible in this region this afternoon, south of more widespread activity across Montana and vicinity, amid low PWAT values and receptive fuels. Elsewhere, minor refinements were made to the isolated dry thunder area near the Four Corners region, where storm potential has decreased, along with some expansion eastward into north-central New Mexico and south-central Colorado, based on 12z CAM guidance and updated fuel guidance. A minor expansion was also made to the Elevated area into east-central Wyoming and vicinity where dry/breezy downsloping west-southwesterly winds should extend later this afternoon. ..Karstens.. 08/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Thu Aug 07 2025/ ...Synopsis... Within the base of a robust midlevel trough moving across the northern Rockies, a belt of enhanced deep-layer west-southwesterly flow will overspread the Great Basin into the central Rockies -- to the north of an expansive midlevel anticyclone centered over the southern Rockies. ...Great Basin into the Central Rockies... Diurnal heating will yield deep boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft across the Great Basin into the central Rockies. As a result, widespread single-digit to lower teens RH will develop amid 20-25 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds. Given increasingly dry/receptive fuels, another day of critical fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Southwest into the Central Rockies... Within a plume of midlevel moisture extending from the Southwest into the central Rockies, diurnally driven high-based thunderstorms are expected -- with a focus over the higher terrain. These storms will be mostly dry, owing to inverted-V soundings (0.50 to 0.70 inch PW) -- posing a risk of lightning-induced ignitions and strong outflow winds. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1114 AM CDT Thu Aug 07 2025 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected later today into tonight across the northern Plains. The most likely corridor is centered on North Dakota, where a few tornadoes, very large hail, and significant severe gusts are possible. ...Eastern MT/Dakotas/Western MN... A large upper trough is digging into the Pacific Northwest region today, with several shortwave perturbations tracking from the northern Great Basin into MT/ND. One feature is currently over eastern MT and has been fostering scattered thunderstorms across that region. Convection in this area is currently in a diurnal lull, but may re-invigorate later this afternoon across parts of central ND as daytime heating/destabilization occurs. Backed low-level winds, dewpoints in the 70s, and high CAPE values will promote a favorable environment for a few supercells capable of very large hail, a few tornadoes, and damaging wind gusts. These storms could persist into the evening, tracking into western MN. Another shortwave trough currently over western ID will overspread the mountains of ID/western MT this afternoon, promoting the development of scattered strong storms. This activity should intensify further as it moves into a very moist/unstable airmass across southeast MT, with a consensus of CAM guidance suggesting upscale growth into a bowing complex by early evening. As these storms progress rapidly eastward across ND/northern SD, there remains the potential for a swath of significant wind damage, along with large hail and a tornado or two. Some guidance suggests the MCS will remain severe well into the night, affecting parts of western/central MN. ..Hart/Wendt.. 08/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1114 AM CDT Thu Aug 07 2025 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected later today into tonight across the northern Plains. The most likely corridor is centered on North Dakota, where a few tornadoes, very large hail, and significant severe gusts are possible. ...Eastern MT/Dakotas/Western MN... A large upper trough is digging into the Pacific Northwest region today, with several shortwave perturbations tracking from the northern Great Basin into MT/ND. One feature is currently over eastern MT and has been fostering scattered thunderstorms across that region. Convection in this area is currently in a diurnal lull, but may re-invigorate later this afternoon across parts of central ND as daytime heating/destabilization occurs. Backed low-level winds, dewpoints in the 70s, and high CAPE values will promote a favorable environment for a few supercells capable of very large hail, a few tornadoes, and damaging wind gusts. These storms could persist into the evening, tracking into western MN. Another shortwave trough currently over western ID will overspread the mountains of ID/western MT this afternoon, promoting the development of scattered strong storms. This activity should intensify further as it moves into a very moist/unstable airmass across southeast MT, with a consensus of CAM guidance suggesting upscale growth into a bowing complex by early evening. As these storms progress rapidly eastward across ND/northern SD, there remains the potential for a swath of significant wind damage, along with large hail and a tornado or two. Some guidance suggests the MCS will remain severe well into the night, affecting parts of western/central MN. ..Hart/Wendt.. 08/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1114 AM CDT Thu Aug 07 2025 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected later today into tonight across the northern Plains. The most likely corridor is centered on North Dakota, where a few tornadoes, very large hail, and significant severe gusts are possible. ...Eastern MT/Dakotas/Western MN... A large upper trough is digging into the Pacific Northwest region today, with several shortwave perturbations tracking from the northern Great Basin into MT/ND. One feature is currently over eastern MT and has been fostering scattered thunderstorms across that region. Convection in this area is currently in a diurnal lull, but may re-invigorate later this afternoon across parts of central ND as daytime heating/destabilization occurs. Backed low-level winds, dewpoints in the 70s, and high CAPE values will promote a favorable environment for a few supercells capable of very large hail, a few tornadoes, and damaging wind gusts. These storms could persist into the evening, tracking into western MN. Another shortwave trough currently over western ID will overspread the mountains of ID/western MT this afternoon, promoting the development of scattered strong storms. This activity should intensify further as it moves into a very moist/unstable airmass across southeast MT, with a consensus of CAM guidance suggesting upscale growth into a bowing complex by early evening. As these storms progress rapidly eastward across ND/northern SD, there remains the potential for a swath of significant wind damage, along with large hail and a tornado or two. Some guidance suggests the MCS will remain severe well into the night, affecting parts of western/central MN. ..Hart/Wendt.. 08/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1114 AM CDT Thu Aug 07 2025 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected later today into tonight across the northern Plains. The most likely corridor is centered on North Dakota, where a few tornadoes, very large hail, and significant severe gusts are possible. ...Eastern MT/Dakotas/Western MN... A large upper trough is digging into the Pacific Northwest region today, with several shortwave perturbations tracking from the northern Great Basin into MT/ND. One feature is currently over eastern MT and has been fostering scattered thunderstorms across that region. Convection in this area is currently in a diurnal lull, but may re-invigorate later this afternoon across parts of central ND as daytime heating/destabilization occurs. Backed low-level winds, dewpoints in the 70s, and high CAPE values will promote a favorable environment for a few supercells capable of very large hail, a few tornadoes, and damaging wind gusts. These storms could persist into the evening, tracking into western MN. Another shortwave trough currently over western ID will overspread the mountains of ID/western MT this afternoon, promoting the development of scattered strong storms. This activity should intensify further as it moves into a very moist/unstable airmass across southeast MT, with a consensus of CAM guidance suggesting upscale growth into a bowing complex by early evening. As these storms progress rapidly eastward across ND/northern SD, there remains the potential for a swath of significant wind damage, along with large hail and a tornado or two. Some guidance suggests the MCS will remain severe well into the night, affecting parts of western/central MN. ..Hart/Wendt.. 08/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1114 AM CDT Thu Aug 07 2025 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected later today into tonight across the northern Plains. The most likely corridor is centered on North Dakota, where a few tornadoes, very large hail, and significant severe gusts are possible. ...Eastern MT/Dakotas/Western MN... A large upper trough is digging into the Pacific Northwest region today, with several shortwave perturbations tracking from the northern Great Basin into MT/ND. One feature is currently over eastern MT and has been fostering scattered thunderstorms across that region. Convection in this area is currently in a diurnal lull, but may re-invigorate later this afternoon across parts of central ND as daytime heating/destabilization occurs. Backed low-level winds, dewpoints in the 70s, and high CAPE values will promote a favorable environment for a few supercells capable of very large hail, a few tornadoes, and damaging wind gusts. These storms could persist into the evening, tracking into western MN. Another shortwave trough currently over western ID will overspread the mountains of ID/western MT this afternoon, promoting the development of scattered strong storms. This activity should intensify further as it moves into a very moist/unstable airmass across southeast MT, with a consensus of CAM guidance suggesting upscale growth into a bowing complex by early evening. As these storms progress rapidly eastward across ND/northern SD, there remains the potential for a swath of significant wind damage, along with large hail and a tornado or two. Some guidance suggests the MCS will remain severe well into the night, affecting parts of western/central MN. ..Hart/Wendt.. 08/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1114 AM CDT Thu Aug 07 2025 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected later today into tonight across the northern Plains. The most likely corridor is centered on North Dakota, where a few tornadoes, very large hail, and significant severe gusts are possible. ...Eastern MT/Dakotas/Western MN... A large upper trough is digging into the Pacific Northwest region today, with several shortwave perturbations tracking from the northern Great Basin into MT/ND. One feature is currently over eastern MT and has been fostering scattered thunderstorms across that region. Convection in this area is currently in a diurnal lull, but may re-invigorate later this afternoon across parts of central ND as daytime heating/destabilization occurs. Backed low-level winds, dewpoints in the 70s, and high CAPE values will promote a favorable environment for a few supercells capable of very large hail, a few tornadoes, and damaging wind gusts. These storms could persist into the evening, tracking into western MN. Another shortwave trough currently over western ID will overspread the mountains of ID/western MT this afternoon, promoting the development of scattered strong storms. This activity should intensify further as it moves into a very moist/unstable airmass across southeast MT, with a consensus of CAM guidance suggesting upscale growth into a bowing complex by early evening. As these storms progress rapidly eastward across ND/northern SD, there remains the potential for a swath of significant wind damage, along with large hail and a tornado or two. Some guidance suggests the MCS will remain severe well into the night, affecting parts of western/central MN. ..Hart/Wendt.. 08/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1114 AM CDT Thu Aug 07 2025 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected later today into tonight across the northern Plains. The most likely corridor is centered on North Dakota, where a few tornadoes, very large hail, and significant severe gusts are possible. ...Eastern MT/Dakotas/Western MN... A large upper trough is digging into the Pacific Northwest region today, with several shortwave perturbations tracking from the northern Great Basin into MT/ND. One feature is currently over eastern MT and has been fostering scattered thunderstorms across that region. Convection in this area is currently in a diurnal lull, but may re-invigorate later this afternoon across parts of central ND as daytime heating/destabilization occurs. Backed low-level winds, dewpoints in the 70s, and high CAPE values will promote a favorable environment for a few supercells capable of very large hail, a few tornadoes, and damaging wind gusts. These storms could persist into the evening, tracking into western MN. Another shortwave trough currently over western ID will overspread the mountains of ID/western MT this afternoon, promoting the development of scattered strong storms. This activity should intensify further as it moves into a very moist/unstable airmass across southeast MT, with a consensus of CAM guidance suggesting upscale growth into a bowing complex by early evening. As these storms progress rapidly eastward across ND/northern SD, there remains the potential for a swath of significant wind damage, along with large hail and a tornado or two. Some guidance suggests the MCS will remain severe well into the night, affecting parts of western/central MN. ..Hart/Wendt.. 08/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1114 AM CDT Thu Aug 07 2025 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected later today into tonight across the northern Plains. The most likely corridor is centered on North Dakota, where a few tornadoes, very large hail, and significant severe gusts are possible. ...Eastern MT/Dakotas/Western MN... A large upper trough is digging into the Pacific Northwest region today, with several shortwave perturbations tracking from the northern Great Basin into MT/ND. One feature is currently over eastern MT and has been fostering scattered thunderstorms across that region. Convection in this area is currently in a diurnal lull, but may re-invigorate later this afternoon across parts of central ND as daytime heating/destabilization occurs. Backed low-level winds, dewpoints in the 70s, and high CAPE values will promote a favorable environment for a few supercells capable of very large hail, a few tornadoes, and damaging wind gusts. These storms could persist into the evening, tracking into western MN. Another shortwave trough currently over western ID will overspread the mountains of ID/western MT this afternoon, promoting the development of scattered strong storms. This activity should intensify further as it moves into a very moist/unstable airmass across southeast MT, with a consensus of CAM guidance suggesting upscale growth into a bowing complex by early evening. As these storms progress rapidly eastward across ND/northern SD, there remains the potential for a swath of significant wind damage, along with large hail and a tornado or two. Some guidance suggests the MCS will remain severe well into the night, affecting parts of western/central MN. ..Hart/Wendt.. 08/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1114 AM CDT Thu Aug 07 2025 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected later today into tonight across the northern Plains. The most likely corridor is centered on North Dakota, where a few tornadoes, very large hail, and significant severe gusts are possible. ...Eastern MT/Dakotas/Western MN... A large upper trough is digging into the Pacific Northwest region today, with several shortwave perturbations tracking from the northern Great Basin into MT/ND. One feature is currently over eastern MT and has been fostering scattered thunderstorms across that region. Convection in this area is currently in a diurnal lull, but may re-invigorate later this afternoon across parts of central ND as daytime heating/destabilization occurs. Backed low-level winds, dewpoints in the 70s, and high CAPE values will promote a favorable environment for a few supercells capable of very large hail, a few tornadoes, and damaging wind gusts. These storms could persist into the evening, tracking into western MN. Another shortwave trough currently over western ID will overspread the mountains of ID/western MT this afternoon, promoting the development of scattered strong storms. This activity should intensify further as it moves into a very moist/unstable airmass across southeast MT, with a consensus of CAM guidance suggesting upscale growth into a bowing complex by early evening. As these storms progress rapidly eastward across ND/northern SD, there remains the potential for a swath of significant wind damage, along with large hail and a tornado or two. Some guidance suggests the MCS will remain severe well into the night, affecting parts of western/central MN. ..Hart/Wendt.. 08/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1114 AM CDT Thu Aug 07 2025 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected later today into tonight across the northern Plains. The most likely corridor is centered on North Dakota, where a few tornadoes, very large hail, and significant severe gusts are possible. ...Eastern MT/Dakotas/Western MN... A large upper trough is digging into the Pacific Northwest region today, with several shortwave perturbations tracking from the northern Great Basin into MT/ND. One feature is currently over eastern MT and has been fostering scattered thunderstorms across that region. Convection in this area is currently in a diurnal lull, but may re-invigorate later this afternoon across parts of central ND as daytime heating/destabilization occurs. Backed low-level winds, dewpoints in the 70s, and high CAPE values will promote a favorable environment for a few supercells capable of very large hail, a few tornadoes, and damaging wind gusts. These storms could persist into the evening, tracking into western MN. Another shortwave trough currently over western ID will overspread the mountains of ID/western MT this afternoon, promoting the development of scattered strong storms. This activity should intensify further as it moves into a very moist/unstable airmass across southeast MT, with a consensus of CAM guidance suggesting upscale growth into a bowing complex by early evening. As these storms progress rapidly eastward across ND/northern SD, there remains the potential for a swath of significant wind damage, along with large hail and a tornado or two. Some guidance suggests the MCS will remain severe well into the night, affecting parts of western/central MN. ..Hart/Wendt.. 08/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0750 AM CDT Thu Aug 07 2025 Valid 071300Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected later today into tonight across the northern Plains. The most likely corridor is centered on North Dakota, where a few tornadoes, very large hail, and significant severe gusts are possible. ...Northern Plains... Elevated thunderstorms are ongoing across northeastern MT this morning, supported by warm-air advection throughout the northwestern periphery of surface low over southeast MT. Steep mid-level lapse rates remain in place downstream of these storms, and southwesterly mid-level flow will persist, so the general expectation is for these storms to continue through the morning into the early afternoon. Cloud cover associated with these storms could result in a differential heating zone that with create a warm-front-like feature across northern ND. At the same time, moisture low-level southeasterly flow will continue across the northern Plains, with dewpoints likely in the upper 60s/low 70s across much of the region by the early afternoon. The surface low over southeast MT is forecast to drift eastward this morning towards the MT/WY/SD border intersection vicinity. To the north of this low, the combination of low-level moisture convergence and strengthening large-scale ascent will likely result in convective initiation by the early afternoon. Surface dewpoints in the upper 60s/low 70s and surface temperatures in the 80s beneath steep mid-level lapse rates will result in an impressive thermodynamic environment from the MT/ND border downstream into more of ND. Most guidance suggests MLCAPE from 3000 to 4000 J/kg. Moderate shear is also expected within this initiation zone, supporting an initially supercellular storm mode. All severe hazards would be possible with these supercells, including very large hail exceeding 2" in diameter, significant severe gusts around 75 mph, and tornadoes. Clustering and upscale growth appears probable, with the resulting MCS then tracking eastward across ND. Given the extreme buoyancy and moderate westerly flow aloft, there is some potential for the development of a robust rear inflow jet and resulting MCS that could be qualified as a derecho. However, confidence in the development of derecho is too low to increase wind probabilities with this outlook. Regardless, significant wind gusts appear possible, particularly if the previously mentioned warm-front-like feature develops and acts as a favored corridor for MCS propagation. Low-level southeasterly flow is also expected to be strong enough for some potential for line-embedded tornadoes. Additional elevated thunderstorms are possible in the wake of this MCS amid modest warm-air advection atop the MCS outflow. Some large hail is possible within these storms. ...Northern High Plains... Farther west, isolated to widely scattered supercells may develop within a moderately unstable post-frontal regime from central into eastern MT. Elongated hodographs and steep lapse rates will support severe hail and wind potential with these cells. Some clustering remains possible within this regime as well, and depending on the evolution of downstream convection, storms that initiate in MT may eventually spread into western/central ND late tonight with a continued severe threat. ...Northern MO/IA into the Upper Midwest... Elevated thunderstorms are currently ongoing across southern IA and northern MO, supported by warm-air advection resulting from a low-level jet that extends from the TX Panhandle through eastern KS. Steep mid-level lapse rates are present across much of the region (sampled by the 12Z TOP sounding), and these storms will likely continue through the afternoon. An isolated strong wind gusts is possible with these storms. Additional thunderstorms are possible later this evening farther northeast in central/southern WI and northern IL as the low-level jet strengthens again. Deep-layer flow will be relatively modest, but rich moisture and moderate to strong buoyancy will support a threat for at least isolated hail and damaging wind. ..Mosier/Bentley.. 08/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0750 AM CDT Thu Aug 07 2025 Valid 071300Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected later today into tonight across the northern Plains. The most likely corridor is centered on North Dakota, where a few tornadoes, very large hail, and significant severe gusts are possible. ...Northern Plains... Elevated thunderstorms are ongoing across northeastern MT this morning, supported by warm-air advection throughout the northwestern periphery of surface low over southeast MT. Steep mid-level lapse rates remain in place downstream of these storms, and southwesterly mid-level flow will persist, so the general expectation is for these storms to continue through the morning into the early afternoon. Cloud cover associated with these storms could result in a differential heating zone that with create a warm-front-like feature across northern ND. At the same time, moisture low-level southeasterly flow will continue across the northern Plains, with dewpoints likely in the upper 60s/low 70s across much of the region by the early afternoon. The surface low over southeast MT is forecast to drift eastward this morning towards the MT/WY/SD border intersection vicinity. To the north of this low, the combination of low-level moisture convergence and strengthening large-scale ascent will likely result in convective initiation by the early afternoon. Surface dewpoints in the upper 60s/low 70s and surface temperatures in the 80s beneath steep mid-level lapse rates will result in an impressive thermodynamic environment from the MT/ND border downstream into more of ND. Most guidance suggests MLCAPE from 3000 to 4000 J/kg. Moderate shear is also expected within this initiation zone, supporting an initially supercellular storm mode. All severe hazards would be possible with these supercells, including very large hail exceeding 2" in diameter, significant severe gusts around 75 mph, and tornadoes. Clustering and upscale growth appears probable, with the resulting MCS then tracking eastward across ND. Given the extreme buoyancy and moderate westerly flow aloft, there is some potential for the development of a robust rear inflow jet and resulting MCS that could be qualified as a derecho. However, confidence in the development of derecho is too low to increase wind probabilities with this outlook. Regardless, significant wind gusts appear possible, particularly if the previously mentioned warm-front-like feature develops and acts as a favored corridor for MCS propagation. Low-level southeasterly flow is also expected to be strong enough for some potential for line-embedded tornadoes. Additional elevated thunderstorms are possible in the wake of this MCS amid modest warm-air advection atop the MCS outflow. Some large hail is possible within these storms. ...Northern High Plains... Farther west, isolated to widely scattered supercells may develop within a moderately unstable post-frontal regime from central into eastern MT. Elongated hodographs and steep lapse rates will support severe hail and wind potential with these cells. Some clustering remains possible within this regime as well, and depending on the evolution of downstream convection, storms that initiate in MT may eventually spread into western/central ND late tonight with a continued severe threat. ...Northern MO/IA into the Upper Midwest... Elevated thunderstorms are currently ongoing across southern IA and northern MO, supported by warm-air advection resulting from a low-level jet that extends from the TX Panhandle through eastern KS. Steep mid-level lapse rates are present across much of the region (sampled by the 12Z TOP sounding), and these storms will likely continue through the afternoon. An isolated strong wind gusts is possible with these storms. Additional thunderstorms are possible later this evening farther northeast in central/southern WI and northern IL as the low-level jet strengthens again. Deep-layer flow will be relatively modest, but rich moisture and moderate to strong buoyancy will support a threat for at least isolated hail and damaging wind. ..Mosier/Bentley.. 08/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0750 AM CDT Thu Aug 07 2025 Valid 071300Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected later today into tonight across the northern Plains. The most likely corridor is centered on North Dakota, where a few tornadoes, very large hail, and significant severe gusts are possible. ...Northern Plains... Elevated thunderstorms are ongoing across northeastern MT this morning, supported by warm-air advection throughout the northwestern periphery of surface low over southeast MT. Steep mid-level lapse rates remain in place downstream of these storms, and southwesterly mid-level flow will persist, so the general expectation is for these storms to continue through the morning into the early afternoon. Cloud cover associated with these storms could result in a differential heating zone that with create a warm-front-like feature across northern ND. At the same time, moisture low-level southeasterly flow will continue across the northern Plains, with dewpoints likely in the upper 60s/low 70s across much of the region by the early afternoon. The surface low over southeast MT is forecast to drift eastward this morning towards the MT/WY/SD border intersection vicinity. To the north of this low, the combination of low-level moisture convergence and strengthening large-scale ascent will likely result in convective initiation by the early afternoon. Surface dewpoints in the upper 60s/low 70s and surface temperatures in the 80s beneath steep mid-level lapse rates will result in an impressive thermodynamic environment from the MT/ND border downstream into more of ND. Most guidance suggests MLCAPE from 3000 to 4000 J/kg. Moderate shear is also expected within this initiation zone, supporting an initially supercellular storm mode. All severe hazards would be possible with these supercells, including very large hail exceeding 2" in diameter, significant severe gusts around 75 mph, and tornadoes. Clustering and upscale growth appears probable, with the resulting MCS then tracking eastward across ND. Given the extreme buoyancy and moderate westerly flow aloft, there is some potential for the development of a robust rear inflow jet and resulting MCS that could be qualified as a derecho. However, confidence in the development of derecho is too low to increase wind probabilities with this outlook. Regardless, significant wind gusts appear possible, particularly if the previously mentioned warm-front-like feature develops and acts as a favored corridor for MCS propagation. Low-level southeasterly flow is also expected to be strong enough for some potential for line-embedded tornadoes. Additional elevated thunderstorms are possible in the wake of this MCS amid modest warm-air advection atop the MCS outflow. Some large hail is possible within these storms. ...Northern High Plains... Farther west, isolated to widely scattered supercells may develop within a moderately unstable post-frontal regime from central into eastern MT. Elongated hodographs and steep lapse rates will support severe hail and wind potential with these cells. Some clustering remains possible within this regime as well, and depending on the evolution of downstream convection, storms that initiate in MT may eventually spread into western/central ND late tonight with a continued severe threat. ...Northern MO/IA into the Upper Midwest... Elevated thunderstorms are currently ongoing across southern IA and northern MO, supported by warm-air advection resulting from a low-level jet that extends from the TX Panhandle through eastern KS. Steep mid-level lapse rates are present across much of the region (sampled by the 12Z TOP sounding), and these storms will likely continue through the afternoon. An isolated strong wind gusts is possible with these storms. Additional thunderstorms are possible later this evening farther northeast in central/southern WI and northern IL as the low-level jet strengthens again. Deep-layer flow will be relatively modest, but rich moisture and moderate to strong buoyancy will support a threat for at least isolated hail and damaging wind. ..Mosier/Bentley.. 08/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0750 AM CDT Thu Aug 07 2025 Valid 071300Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected later today into tonight across the northern Plains. The most likely corridor is centered on North Dakota, where a few tornadoes, very large hail, and significant severe gusts are possible. ...Northern Plains... Elevated thunderstorms are ongoing across northeastern MT this morning, supported by warm-air advection throughout the northwestern periphery of surface low over southeast MT. Steep mid-level lapse rates remain in place downstream of these storms, and southwesterly mid-level flow will persist, so the general expectation is for these storms to continue through the morning into the early afternoon. Cloud cover associated with these storms could result in a differential heating zone that with create a warm-front-like feature across northern ND. At the same time, moisture low-level southeasterly flow will continue across the northern Plains, with dewpoints likely in the upper 60s/low 70s across much of the region by the early afternoon. The surface low over southeast MT is forecast to drift eastward this morning towards the MT/WY/SD border intersection vicinity. To the north of this low, the combination of low-level moisture convergence and strengthening large-scale ascent will likely result in convective initiation by the early afternoon. Surface dewpoints in the upper 60s/low 70s and surface temperatures in the 80s beneath steep mid-level lapse rates will result in an impressive thermodynamic environment from the MT/ND border downstream into more of ND. Most guidance suggests MLCAPE from 3000 to 4000 J/kg. Moderate shear is also expected within this initiation zone, supporting an initially supercellular storm mode. All severe hazards would be possible with these supercells, including very large hail exceeding 2" in diameter, significant severe gusts around 75 mph, and tornadoes. Clustering and upscale growth appears probable, with the resulting MCS then tracking eastward across ND. Given the extreme buoyancy and moderate westerly flow aloft, there is some potential for the development of a robust rear inflow jet and resulting MCS that could be qualified as a derecho. However, confidence in the development of derecho is too low to increase wind probabilities with this outlook. Regardless, significant wind gusts appear possible, particularly if the previously mentioned warm-front-like feature develops and acts as a favored corridor for MCS propagation. Low-level southeasterly flow is also expected to be strong enough for some potential for line-embedded tornadoes. Additional elevated thunderstorms are possible in the wake of this MCS amid modest warm-air advection atop the MCS outflow. Some large hail is possible within these storms. ...Northern High Plains... Farther west, isolated to widely scattered supercells may develop within a moderately unstable post-frontal regime from central into eastern MT. Elongated hodographs and steep lapse rates will support severe hail and wind potential with these cells. Some clustering remains possible within this regime as well, and depending on the evolution of downstream convection, storms that initiate in MT may eventually spread into western/central ND late tonight with a continued severe threat. ...Northern MO/IA into the Upper Midwest... Elevated thunderstorms are currently ongoing across southern IA and northern MO, supported by warm-air advection resulting from a low-level jet that extends from the TX Panhandle through eastern KS. Steep mid-level lapse rates are present across much of the region (sampled by the 12Z TOP sounding), and these storms will likely continue through the afternoon. An isolated strong wind gusts is possible with these storms. Additional thunderstorms are possible later this evening farther northeast in central/southern WI and northern IL as the low-level jet strengthens again. Deep-layer flow will be relatively modest, but rich moisture and moderate to strong buoyancy will support a threat for at least isolated hail and damaging wind. ..Mosier/Bentley.. 08/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0750 AM CDT Thu Aug 07 2025 Valid 071300Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected later today into tonight across the northern Plains. The most likely corridor is centered on North Dakota, where a few tornadoes, very large hail, and significant severe gusts are possible. ...Northern Plains... Elevated thunderstorms are ongoing across northeastern MT this morning, supported by warm-air advection throughout the northwestern periphery of surface low over southeast MT. Steep mid-level lapse rates remain in place downstream of these storms, and southwesterly mid-level flow will persist, so the general expectation is for these storms to continue through the morning into the early afternoon. Cloud cover associated with these storms could result in a differential heating zone that with create a warm-front-like feature across northern ND. At the same time, moisture low-level southeasterly flow will continue across the northern Plains, with dewpoints likely in the upper 60s/low 70s across much of the region by the early afternoon. The surface low over southeast MT is forecast to drift eastward this morning towards the MT/WY/SD border intersection vicinity. To the north of this low, the combination of low-level moisture convergence and strengthening large-scale ascent will likely result in convective initiation by the early afternoon. Surface dewpoints in the upper 60s/low 70s and surface temperatures in the 80s beneath steep mid-level lapse rates will result in an impressive thermodynamic environment from the MT/ND border downstream into more of ND. Most guidance suggests MLCAPE from 3000 to 4000 J/kg. Moderate shear is also expected within this initiation zone, supporting an initially supercellular storm mode. All severe hazards would be possible with these supercells, including very large hail exceeding 2" in diameter, significant severe gusts around 75 mph, and tornadoes. Clustering and upscale growth appears probable, with the resulting MCS then tracking eastward across ND. Given the extreme buoyancy and moderate westerly flow aloft, there is some potential for the development of a robust rear inflow jet and resulting MCS that could be qualified as a derecho. However, confidence in the development of derecho is too low to increase wind probabilities with this outlook. Regardless, significant wind gusts appear possible, particularly if the previously mentioned warm-front-like feature develops and acts as a favored corridor for MCS propagation. Low-level southeasterly flow is also expected to be strong enough for some potential for line-embedded tornadoes. Additional elevated thunderstorms are possible in the wake of this MCS amid modest warm-air advection atop the MCS outflow. Some large hail is possible within these storms. ...Northern High Plains... Farther west, isolated to widely scattered supercells may develop within a moderately unstable post-frontal regime from central into eastern MT. Elongated hodographs and steep lapse rates will support severe hail and wind potential with these cells. Some clustering remains possible within this regime as well, and depending on the evolution of downstream convection, storms that initiate in MT may eventually spread into western/central ND late tonight with a continued severe threat. ...Northern MO/IA into the Upper Midwest... Elevated thunderstorms are currently ongoing across southern IA and northern MO, supported by warm-air advection resulting from a low-level jet that extends from the TX Panhandle through eastern KS. Steep mid-level lapse rates are present across much of the region (sampled by the 12Z TOP sounding), and these storms will likely continue through the afternoon. An isolated strong wind gusts is possible with these storms. Additional thunderstorms are possible later this evening farther northeast in central/southern WI and northern IL as the low-level jet strengthens again. Deep-layer flow will be relatively modest, but rich moisture and moderate to strong buoyancy will support a threat for at least isolated hail and damaging wind. ..Mosier/Bentley.. 08/07/2025 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 AM CDT Thu Aug 07 2025 Valid 101200Z - 151200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Sunday/Day 4 to Tuesday/Day 6... A persistent shortwave mid-level trough is forecast to remain over the central U.S. from Sunday to Tuesday. During this time period, a moist and unstable airmass is forecast to be in place from the central Plains northeastward into the Great Lakes. It appears that large-scale ascent will be weak across most of this airmass, which will result in limited convective coverage. Although instability and deep-layer shear should be sufficient for an isolated severe threat each afternoon, mainly in areas that heat up the most, any potential should remain localized. Further north into the northern Plains, low-level moisture is forecast to increase by midweek. In response, a moderately unstable airmass could develop by Tuesday afternoon. In spite of this, warm air aloft and limited large-scale ascent should keep convective coverage very isolated. This will likely limit any related severe threat. ...Wednesday/Day 7 and Thursday/Day 8... From Wednesday into Thursday, a mid-level trough is forecast to move across the northwestern U.S. Ahead of this system, a cold front is forecast to advance southeastward across the northern Plains. Thunderstorms would be possible near the front across the Dakotas Wednesday afternoon, and in the upper Mississippi Valley Thursday afternoon. An isolated severe threat would be possible for both days. However, details concerning any potential scenario, including the timing of the front, is highly uncertain at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 AM CDT Thu Aug 07 2025 Valid 101200Z - 151200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Sunday/Day 4 to Tuesday/Day 6... A persistent shortwave mid-level trough is forecast to remain over the central U.S. from Sunday to Tuesday. During this time period, a moist and unstable airmass is forecast to be in place from the central Plains northeastward into the Great Lakes. It appears that large-scale ascent will be weak across most of this airmass, which will result in limited convective coverage. Although instability and deep-layer shear should be sufficient for an isolated severe threat each afternoon, mainly in areas that heat up the most, any potential should remain localized. Further north into the northern Plains, low-level moisture is forecast to increase by midweek. In response, a moderately unstable airmass could develop by Tuesday afternoon. In spite of this, warm air aloft and limited large-scale ascent should keep convective coverage very isolated. This will likely limit any related severe threat. ...Wednesday/Day 7 and Thursday/Day 8... From Wednesday into Thursday, a mid-level trough is forecast to move across the northwestern U.S. Ahead of this system, a cold front is forecast to advance southeastward across the northern Plains. Thunderstorms would be possible near the front across the Dakotas Wednesday afternoon, and in the upper Mississippi Valley Thursday afternoon. An isolated severe threat would be possible for both days. However, details concerning any potential scenario, including the timing of the front, is highly uncertain at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 AM CDT Thu Aug 07 2025 Valid 101200Z - 151200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Sunday/Day 4 to Tuesday/Day 6... A persistent shortwave mid-level trough is forecast to remain over the central U.S. from Sunday to Tuesday. During this time period, a moist and unstable airmass is forecast to be in place from the central Plains northeastward into the Great Lakes. It appears that large-scale ascent will be weak across most of this airmass, which will result in limited convective coverage. Although instability and deep-layer shear should be sufficient for an isolated severe threat each afternoon, mainly in areas that heat up the most, any potential should remain localized. Further north into the northern Plains, low-level moisture is forecast to increase by midweek. In response, a moderately unstable airmass could develop by Tuesday afternoon. In spite of this, warm air aloft and limited large-scale ascent should keep convective coverage very isolated. This will likely limit any related severe threat. ...Wednesday/Day 7 and Thursday/Day 8... From Wednesday into Thursday, a mid-level trough is forecast to move across the northwestern U.S. Ahead of this system, a cold front is forecast to advance southeastward across the northern Plains. Thunderstorms would be possible near the front across the Dakotas Wednesday afternoon, and in the upper Mississippi Valley Thursday afternoon. An isolated severe threat would be possible for both days. However, details concerning any potential scenario, including the timing of the front, is highly uncertain at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 AM CDT Thu Aug 07 2025 Valid 101200Z - 151200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Sunday/Day 4 to Tuesday/Day 6... A persistent shortwave mid-level trough is forecast to remain over the central U.S. from Sunday to Tuesday. During this time period, a moist and unstable airmass is forecast to be in place from the central Plains northeastward into the Great Lakes. It appears that large-scale ascent will be weak across most of this airmass, which will result in limited convective coverage. Although instability and deep-layer shear should be sufficient for an isolated severe threat each afternoon, mainly in areas that heat up the most, any potential should remain localized. Further north into the northern Plains, low-level moisture is forecast to increase by midweek. In response, a moderately unstable airmass could develop by Tuesday afternoon. In spite of this, warm air aloft and limited large-scale ascent should keep convective coverage very isolated. This will likely limit any related severe threat. ...Wednesday/Day 7 and Thursday/Day 8... From Wednesday into Thursday, a mid-level trough is forecast to move across the northwestern U.S. Ahead of this system, a cold front is forecast to advance southeastward across the northern Plains. Thunderstorms would be possible near the front across the Dakotas Wednesday afternoon, and in the upper Mississippi Valley Thursday afternoon. An isolated severe threat would be possible for both days. However, details concerning any potential scenario, including the timing of the front, is highly uncertain at this time. Read more