Severe Storms

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Thu Aug 07 2025 Valid 080100Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR ND AND ADJACENT PARTS OF EASTERN MT AND NORTHWEST MN... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected tonight across the northern Plains, in an area centered on North Dakota. One or more swaths of significant severe winds are possible, along with potential for large to very large hail and a few tornadoes. ...Northern Plains vicinity... Multiple storm clusters are ongoing this evening from south-central and eastern MT into northwest ND, with more isolated discrete development near a weak surface boundary across far northeast ND. The environment downstream of the MT storm clusters remains rather volatile, with rich low-level moisture, steep midlevel lapse rates, MLCAPE of 2000-4000 J/kg, and effective shear of 40-50 kt. As the ongoing storm clusters and attendant outflow move into this volatile environment through the evening, upscale growth into an intense MCS will be possible, potentially resulting in a swath of significant severe gusts moving across ND later this evening into the overnight hours. A couple supercells also remain possible, with a threat of very large hail. Backed surface winds and modestly enhanced low-level shear/SRH could also support some tornado potential, both with any sustained supercells, and embedded within any intense MCS that develops later tonight. See MCDs 1899 and 1900 for more information regarding the short-term threat in this area. While confidence remains high in an increasing severe threat this evening across ND, some uncertainty remains regarding the evolution of ongoing storms, and the favored corridor for significant-severe potential later tonight. Longevity and eastward extent of the threat overnight also remain somewhat uncertain, but some severe potential may reach parts of west-central/northwest MN by the end of the period. ...Central High Plains... Isolated strong to severe storms may continue through dusk from near the NE/SD border southward into northwest KS, within a strongly unstable and favorably sheared environment. Rather stout downstream MLCINH (which will continue to increase with time) is expected to limit the longevity of these storms, but some threat for hail and strong to severe gusts will continue for as long as these storms persist. ..Dean.. 08/08/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Thu Aug 07 2025 Valid 080100Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR ND AND ADJACENT PARTS OF EASTERN MT AND NORTHWEST MN... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected tonight across the northern Plains, in an area centered on North Dakota. One or more swaths of significant severe winds are possible, along with potential for large to very large hail and a few tornadoes. ...Northern Plains vicinity... Multiple storm clusters are ongoing this evening from south-central and eastern MT into northwest ND, with more isolated discrete development near a weak surface boundary across far northeast ND. The environment downstream of the MT storm clusters remains rather volatile, with rich low-level moisture, steep midlevel lapse rates, MLCAPE of 2000-4000 J/kg, and effective shear of 40-50 kt. As the ongoing storm clusters and attendant outflow move into this volatile environment through the evening, upscale growth into an intense MCS will be possible, potentially resulting in a swath of significant severe gusts moving across ND later this evening into the overnight hours. A couple supercells also remain possible, with a threat of very large hail. Backed surface winds and modestly enhanced low-level shear/SRH could also support some tornado potential, both with any sustained supercells, and embedded within any intense MCS that develops later tonight. See MCDs 1899 and 1900 for more information regarding the short-term threat in this area. While confidence remains high in an increasing severe threat this evening across ND, some uncertainty remains regarding the evolution of ongoing storms, and the favored corridor for significant-severe potential later tonight. Longevity and eastward extent of the threat overnight also remain somewhat uncertain, but some severe potential may reach parts of west-central/northwest MN by the end of the period. ...Central High Plains... Isolated strong to severe storms may continue through dusk from near the NE/SD border southward into northwest KS, within a strongly unstable and favorably sheared environment. Rather stout downstream MLCINH (which will continue to increase with time) is expected to limit the longevity of these storms, but some threat for hail and strong to severe gusts will continue for as long as these storms persist. ..Dean.. 08/08/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Thu Aug 07 2025 Valid 080100Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR ND AND ADJACENT PARTS OF EASTERN MT AND NORTHWEST MN... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected tonight across the northern Plains, in an area centered on North Dakota. One or more swaths of significant severe winds are possible, along with potential for large to very large hail and a few tornadoes. ...Northern Plains vicinity... Multiple storm clusters are ongoing this evening from south-central and eastern MT into northwest ND, with more isolated discrete development near a weak surface boundary across far northeast ND. The environment downstream of the MT storm clusters remains rather volatile, with rich low-level moisture, steep midlevel lapse rates, MLCAPE of 2000-4000 J/kg, and effective shear of 40-50 kt. As the ongoing storm clusters and attendant outflow move into this volatile environment through the evening, upscale growth into an intense MCS will be possible, potentially resulting in a swath of significant severe gusts moving across ND later this evening into the overnight hours. A couple supercells also remain possible, with a threat of very large hail. Backed surface winds and modestly enhanced low-level shear/SRH could also support some tornado potential, both with any sustained supercells, and embedded within any intense MCS that develops later tonight. See MCDs 1899 and 1900 for more information regarding the short-term threat in this area. While confidence remains high in an increasing severe threat this evening across ND, some uncertainty remains regarding the evolution of ongoing storms, and the favored corridor for significant-severe potential later tonight. Longevity and eastward extent of the threat overnight also remain somewhat uncertain, but some severe potential may reach parts of west-central/northwest MN by the end of the period. ...Central High Plains... Isolated strong to severe storms may continue through dusk from near the NE/SD border southward into northwest KS, within a strongly unstable and favorably sheared environment. Rather stout downstream MLCINH (which will continue to increase with time) is expected to limit the longevity of these storms, but some threat for hail and strong to severe gusts will continue for as long as these storms persist. ..Dean.. 08/08/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Thu Aug 07 2025 Valid 080100Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR ND AND ADJACENT PARTS OF EASTERN MT AND NORTHWEST MN... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected tonight across the northern Plains, in an area centered on North Dakota. One or more swaths of significant severe winds are possible, along with potential for large to very large hail and a few tornadoes. ...Northern Plains vicinity... Multiple storm clusters are ongoing this evening from south-central and eastern MT into northwest ND, with more isolated discrete development near a weak surface boundary across far northeast ND. The environment downstream of the MT storm clusters remains rather volatile, with rich low-level moisture, steep midlevel lapse rates, MLCAPE of 2000-4000 J/kg, and effective shear of 40-50 kt. As the ongoing storm clusters and attendant outflow move into this volatile environment through the evening, upscale growth into an intense MCS will be possible, potentially resulting in a swath of significant severe gusts moving across ND later this evening into the overnight hours. A couple supercells also remain possible, with a threat of very large hail. Backed surface winds and modestly enhanced low-level shear/SRH could also support some tornado potential, both with any sustained supercells, and embedded within any intense MCS that develops later tonight. See MCDs 1899 and 1900 for more information regarding the short-term threat in this area. While confidence remains high in an increasing severe threat this evening across ND, some uncertainty remains regarding the evolution of ongoing storms, and the favored corridor for significant-severe potential later tonight. Longevity and eastward extent of the threat overnight also remain somewhat uncertain, but some severe potential may reach parts of west-central/northwest MN by the end of the period. ...Central High Plains... Isolated strong to severe storms may continue through dusk from near the NE/SD border southward into northwest KS, within a strongly unstable and favorably sheared environment. Rather stout downstream MLCINH (which will continue to increase with time) is expected to limit the longevity of these storms, but some threat for hail and strong to severe gusts will continue for as long as these storms persist. ..Dean.. 08/08/2025 Read more

WW 0575 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 575 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..SPC..08/08/25 ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 575 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MTC003-011-017-021-025-033-055-065-069-075-079-083-085-087-103- 109-111-080140- MT . MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BIG HORN CARTER CUSTER DAWSON FALLON GARFIELD MCCONE MUSSELSHELL PETROLEUM POWDER RIVER PRAIRIE RICHLAND ROOSEVELT ROSEBUD TREASURE WIBAUX YELLOWSTONE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

MD 1898 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA TO NORTHWEST NEBRASKA
Mesoscale Discussion 1898 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0515 PM CDT Thu Aug 07 2025 Areas affected...Central South Dakota to northwest Nebraska Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 072215Z - 080015Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated thunderstorms may pose a severe wind and hail risk through the evening hours. Residual capping and limited storm coverage should preclude watch issuance. DISCUSSION...The early stages of thunderstorm development are underway along the NE/SD border as deep mixing on the western fringe of a low-level moisture plume has eroded inhibition and allowed for convective initiation. Latest mesoanalysis suggests these cells remain in the deeply-mixed environment and should primarily pose a severe wind risk in the near-term given LCLs near 3 km. With time, these cells will migrate east into the deeper moisture where MLCAPE values are in excess of 4000 J/kg. Despite the ample buoyancy, stronger capping with eastward extent casts some uncertainty regarding storm longevity through the evening. If updrafts can be sustained through the next couple of hours, they may be able to realize the high-CAPE environment with a substantial uptick in intensity. Deep-layer shear on the order of 35-40 knots should support supercellular storm modes with an attendant risk for very large hail. It is uncertain if this ceiling will be realized given the residual capping, potential for early outflow-dominant storms, and recent demise of at least one deeper cell, which limits confidence in the need for watch issuance. ..Moore/Guyer.. 08/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ABR...LBF...UNR... LAT...LON 44810034 44830021 44649985 44299963 43809970 43149992 42600014 42240064 42140115 42160178 42330210 42560225 42970221 43780193 44220168 44520137 44770094 44810034 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

MD 1898 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA TO NORTHWEST NEBRASKA
Mesoscale Discussion 1898 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0515 PM CDT Thu Aug 07 2025 Areas affected...Central South Dakota to northwest Nebraska Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 072215Z - 080015Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated thunderstorms may pose a severe wind and hail risk through the evening hours. Residual capping and limited storm coverage should preclude watch issuance. DISCUSSION...The early stages of thunderstorm development are underway along the NE/SD border as deep mixing on the western fringe of a low-level moisture plume has eroded inhibition and allowed for convective initiation. Latest mesoanalysis suggests these cells remain in the deeply-mixed environment and should primarily pose a severe wind risk in the near-term given LCLs near 3 km. With time, these cells will migrate east into the deeper moisture where MLCAPE values are in excess of 4000 J/kg. Despite the ample buoyancy, stronger capping with eastward extent casts some uncertainty regarding storm longevity through the evening. If updrafts can be sustained through the next couple of hours, they may be able to realize the high-CAPE environment with a substantial uptick in intensity. Deep-layer shear on the order of 35-40 knots should support supercellular storm modes with an attendant risk for very large hail. It is uncertain if this ceiling will be realized given the residual capping, potential for early outflow-dominant storms, and recent demise of at least one deeper cell, which limits confidence in the need for watch issuance. ..Moore/Guyer.. 08/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ABR...LBF...UNR... LAT...LON 44810034 44830021 44649985 44299963 43809970 43149992 42600014 42240064 42140115 42160178 42330210 42560225 42970221 43780193 44220168 44520137 44770094 44810034 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Aug 7 22:00:22 UTC 2025.

MD 1897 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 1897 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 PM CDT Thu Aug 07 2025 Areas affected...parts of western and central North Dakota Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 071954Z - 072200Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Uncertainty lingers concerning potential thunderstorm coverage and sustenance into and through 5-7 PM CDT. However, any sustained thunderstorm development may include rapidly intensifying supercells accompanied by a risk for large hail, locally damaging wind gusts and perhaps a couple of tornadoes. DISCUSSION...Along and southeast of a weak baroclinic zone, near the leading edge of air impacted by outflow from now dissipated convective development, boundary-layer air with seasonably high moisture content is becoming characterized by moderate to strong potential instability. This is being supported by steep lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates associated a broad plume of warm and capping elevated mixed-layer air overspreading much of the Great Plains. Based on latest model output and objective analysis, the northern periphery of the stronger capping may now be north of the surface front, roughly near/northwest of the Dickinson through Garrison and Minot vicinities. However, large-scale scale ascent associated with lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection, a subtle mid-level short wave perturbation, and localized area of enhanced low-level convergence might be sufficient to overcome mid-level inhibition and support the initiation of at least isolated thunderstorm development late this afternoon. If this occurs, there appears potential for rapid intensification, and the evolution of a large supercell, in the presence of moderate to strong deep-layer shear beneath 30-40 kt southwesterly flow around 500 mb. The environment appears conducive to the potential for large hail, locally damaging surface gusts, and, despite modest low-level hodographs, a risk for a couple of tornadoes. ..Kerr/Hart.. 08/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BIS... LAT...LON 47540379 48680138 48179986 47190026 46830139 47080353 47540379 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

WW 0575 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0575 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0575 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0575 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 575 SEVERE TSTM MT 072150Z - 080500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 575 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 350 PM MDT Thu Aug 7 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Eastern Montana * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 350 PM until 1100 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Severe storms including a few supercells are expected to further develop late this afternoon and generally spread east-northeastward across much of eastern Montana through the evening. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 85 statute miles north and south of a line from 115 miles west of Miles City MT to 25 miles north northeast of Baker MT. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 25025. ...Guyer Read more

No watches are valid as of Thu Aug 7 21:19:02 UTC 2025.

MD 1896 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN MONTANA
Mesoscale Discussion 1896 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 PM CDT Thu Aug 07 2025 Areas affected...Parts of central and eastern Montana Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 071949Z - 072145Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible this afternoon, especially as storms move into eastern Montana. A watch is possible when storm intensity trends become evident. DISCUSSION...A broad area of mid-level ascent is evident on visible satellite imagery in southwestern Montana. This forcing has promoted widely scattered thunderstorms early this afternoon. Mid/upper clouds associated with this band of ascent has so far kept buoyancy rather weak near the terrain. Farther east, surface dewpoints have gradually increased into the low/mid 50s F to mid/upper 60s F near the North Dakota border. Given the strong ascent, it is likely that scattered storms will eventually develop. Lingering MLCIN is present from around Billings eastward. This should erode some with additional afternoon heating. The main point of uncertainty is when storms will intensify. This will probably occur in the next 2-3 hours when storms encounter greater moisture. Strong shear and increasing buoyancy as convection moves east will support a threat for initial supercells capable of large hail and severe winds. Temperature-dewpoint spreads are large enough that storms will tend to be outflow dominant and may congeal into one or more clusters. A watch is possible this afternoon, but timing of when this will be needed is not clear. ..Wendt/Hart.. 08/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX... LAT...LON 45980948 47040947 47780714 47610594 46700476 45970475 45390582 45470810 45980948 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0329 PM CDT Thu Aug 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z A large upper-level trough positioned over the northern Rockies and northern Great Plains will gradually shift east this weekend. Meanwhile, an upper-level ridge over the Southwest will shift westward and build across much of the West by D5/Monday. Thereafter, another upper-level trough is forecast to enter the Pacific Northwest. ...Dry Thunderstorms: D3/Saturday - D4/Sunday... Residual moisture beneath the ridge should allow for a continuation of afternoon thunderstorm potential through at least D4/Sunday for portions of the Southwest amid low environmental PWAT values and receptive fuels. 10% probabilities have been maintained for the region through Sunday. Thunderstorm potential may extend into early next week though limited predictability within the weak-flow regime beyond D4/Sunday precludes introducing any additional highlights. ...Wind/RH: D3/Saturday... Some enhanced upper-level flow associated with the exiting trough may linger over portions of the Southwest to result in diurnally driven wind/RH concerns for portions of the region on D3/Saturday, and potentially extending into D4/Sunday. For now, have added 40% probabilities on D3/Saturday and will continue to monitor potential for the region thereafter. Wind/RH concerns may begin to emerge early next week for portions of the Pacific Northwest and northern Great Basin, as enhanced flow with the onshoring trough overspreads the region. However, considerable spread exists among medium-range guidance regarding the timing/placement/magnitude of this trough, precluding the introduction of any highlights at this time. ..Karstens.. 08/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0329 PM CDT Thu Aug 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z A large upper-level trough positioned over the northern Rockies and northern Great Plains will gradually shift east this weekend. Meanwhile, an upper-level ridge over the Southwest will shift westward and build across much of the West by D5/Monday. Thereafter, another upper-level trough is forecast to enter the Pacific Northwest. ...Dry Thunderstorms: D3/Saturday - D4/Sunday... Residual moisture beneath the ridge should allow for a continuation of afternoon thunderstorm potential through at least D4/Sunday for portions of the Southwest amid low environmental PWAT values and receptive fuels. 10% probabilities have been maintained for the region through Sunday. Thunderstorm potential may extend into early next week though limited predictability within the weak-flow regime beyond D4/Sunday precludes introducing any additional highlights. ...Wind/RH: D3/Saturday... Some enhanced upper-level flow associated with the exiting trough may linger over portions of the Southwest to result in diurnally driven wind/RH concerns for portions of the region on D3/Saturday, and potentially extending into D4/Sunday. For now, have added 40% probabilities on D3/Saturday and will continue to monitor potential for the region thereafter. Wind/RH concerns may begin to emerge early next week for portions of the Pacific Northwest and northern Great Basin, as enhanced flow with the onshoring trough overspreads the region. However, considerable spread exists among medium-range guidance regarding the timing/placement/magnitude of this trough, precluding the introduction of any highlights at this time. ..Karstens.. 08/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0329 PM CDT Thu Aug 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z A large upper-level trough positioned over the northern Rockies and northern Great Plains will gradually shift east this weekend. Meanwhile, an upper-level ridge over the Southwest will shift westward and build across much of the West by D5/Monday. Thereafter, another upper-level trough is forecast to enter the Pacific Northwest. ...Dry Thunderstorms: D3/Saturday - D4/Sunday... Residual moisture beneath the ridge should allow for a continuation of afternoon thunderstorm potential through at least D4/Sunday for portions of the Southwest amid low environmental PWAT values and receptive fuels. 10% probabilities have been maintained for the region through Sunday. Thunderstorm potential may extend into early next week though limited predictability within the weak-flow regime beyond D4/Sunday precludes introducing any additional highlights. ...Wind/RH: D3/Saturday... Some enhanced upper-level flow associated with the exiting trough may linger over portions of the Southwest to result in diurnally driven wind/RH concerns for portions of the region on D3/Saturday, and potentially extending into D4/Sunday. For now, have added 40% probabilities on D3/Saturday and will continue to monitor potential for the region thereafter. Wind/RH concerns may begin to emerge early next week for portions of the Pacific Northwest and northern Great Basin, as enhanced flow with the onshoring trough overspreads the region. However, considerable spread exists among medium-range guidance regarding the timing/placement/magnitude of this trough, precluding the introduction of any highlights at this time. ..Karstens.. 08/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0329 PM CDT Thu Aug 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z A large upper-level trough positioned over the northern Rockies and northern Great Plains will gradually shift east this weekend. Meanwhile, an upper-level ridge over the Southwest will shift westward and build across much of the West by D5/Monday. Thereafter, another upper-level trough is forecast to enter the Pacific Northwest. ...Dry Thunderstorms: D3/Saturday - D4/Sunday... Residual moisture beneath the ridge should allow for a continuation of afternoon thunderstorm potential through at least D4/Sunday for portions of the Southwest amid low environmental PWAT values and receptive fuels. 10% probabilities have been maintained for the region through Sunday. Thunderstorm potential may extend into early next week though limited predictability within the weak-flow regime beyond D4/Sunday precludes introducing any additional highlights. ...Wind/RH: D3/Saturday... Some enhanced upper-level flow associated with the exiting trough may linger over portions of the Southwest to result in diurnally driven wind/RH concerns for portions of the region on D3/Saturday, and potentially extending into D4/Sunday. For now, have added 40% probabilities on D3/Saturday and will continue to monitor potential for the region thereafter. Wind/RH concerns may begin to emerge early next week for portions of the Pacific Northwest and northern Great Basin, as enhanced flow with the onshoring trough overspreads the region. However, considerable spread exists among medium-range guidance regarding the timing/placement/magnitude of this trough, precluding the introduction of any highlights at this time. ..Karstens.. 08/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0329 PM CDT Thu Aug 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z A large upper-level trough positioned over the northern Rockies and northern Great Plains will gradually shift east this weekend. Meanwhile, an upper-level ridge over the Southwest will shift westward and build across much of the West by D5/Monday. Thereafter, another upper-level trough is forecast to enter the Pacific Northwest. ...Dry Thunderstorms: D3/Saturday - D4/Sunday... Residual moisture beneath the ridge should allow for a continuation of afternoon thunderstorm potential through at least D4/Sunday for portions of the Southwest amid low environmental PWAT values and receptive fuels. 10% probabilities have been maintained for the region through Sunday. Thunderstorm potential may extend into early next week though limited predictability within the weak-flow regime beyond D4/Sunday precludes introducing any additional highlights. ...Wind/RH: D3/Saturday... Some enhanced upper-level flow associated with the exiting trough may linger over portions of the Southwest to result in diurnally driven wind/RH concerns for portions of the region on D3/Saturday, and potentially extending into D4/Sunday. For now, have added 40% probabilities on D3/Saturday and will continue to monitor potential for the region thereafter. Wind/RH concerns may begin to emerge early next week for portions of the Pacific Northwest and northern Great Basin, as enhanced flow with the onshoring trough overspreads the region. However, considerable spread exists among medium-range guidance regarding the timing/placement/magnitude of this trough, precluding the introduction of any highlights at this time. ..Karstens.. 08/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0329 PM CDT Thu Aug 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z A large upper-level trough positioned over the northern Rockies and northern Great Plains will gradually shift east this weekend. Meanwhile, an upper-level ridge over the Southwest will shift westward and build across much of the West by D5/Monday. Thereafter, another upper-level trough is forecast to enter the Pacific Northwest. ...Dry Thunderstorms: D3/Saturday - D4/Sunday... Residual moisture beneath the ridge should allow for a continuation of afternoon thunderstorm potential through at least D4/Sunday for portions of the Southwest amid low environmental PWAT values and receptive fuels. 10% probabilities have been maintained for the region through Sunday. Thunderstorm potential may extend into early next week though limited predictability within the weak-flow regime beyond D4/Sunday precludes introducing any additional highlights. ...Wind/RH: D3/Saturday... Some enhanced upper-level flow associated with the exiting trough may linger over portions of the Southwest to result in diurnally driven wind/RH concerns for portions of the region on D3/Saturday, and potentially extending into D4/Sunday. For now, have added 40% probabilities on D3/Saturday and will continue to monitor potential for the region thereafter. Wind/RH concerns may begin to emerge early next week for portions of the Pacific Northwest and northern Great Basin, as enhanced flow with the onshoring trough overspreads the region. However, considerable spread exists among medium-range guidance regarding the timing/placement/magnitude of this trough, precluding the introduction of any highlights at this time. ..Karstens.. 08/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more