Severe Storms

WW 0576 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 576 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 N Y22 TO 25 NW BIS TO 55 WSW DVL TO 40 NW DVL TO 80 NNW DVL. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1902. ..LEITMAN..08/08/25 ATTN...WFO...BIS...FGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 576 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NDC005-015-019-027-037-059-071-083-095-103-080740- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENSON BURLEIGH CAVALIER EDDY GRANT MORTON RAMSEY SHERIDAN TOWNER WELLS THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 576 SEVERE TSTM ND 080100Z - 080800Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 576 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 800 PM CDT Thu Aug 7 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of North Dakota * Effective this Thursday night and Friday morning from 800 PM until 300 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 90 mph possible Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Severe storms will increase this evening initially across northwest/northern North Dakota, and across a broader part of western North Dakota a bit later potentially including areas near/north of the I-94 corridor. Corridors of potentially widespread/locally damaging winds may evolve tonight, along with the potential for very large hail and possibly some tornado risk. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 95 statute miles north and south of a line from 55 miles south southwest of Williston ND to 35 miles south southeast of Devils Lake ND. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 575... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 80 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 24035. ...Guyer Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0133 AM CDT Fri Aug 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions and isolated dry thunderstorms are expected across portions of the Four Corners and northern Rockies on Saturday afternoon. The upper trough currently traversing MT is expected to undergo slight de-amplification as it drifts east into the southern Canadian Prairies through late Saturday. As this occurs, both mid-level flow over the Intermountain West and surface pressure gradient winds will weaken, which will modulate the potential for reaching critical wind/RH conditions across the Four Corners region where fuels will remain very dry. However, deep diurnal mixing and lingering 15-25 mph winds within the lowest few kilometers should promote breezy conditions (sustained winds most likely between 15-20 mph) with single-digit to low-teen RH minimums. In addition to elevated fire weather conditions, weak orographic ascent off the Mogollon Rim in AZ/western NM as well as lift ahead of a weak embedded shortwave trough in the northern Rockies will promote areas of isolated thunderstorms. Dry air masses in both regions (PWATs generally less than 0.75 inches) coupled with sufficiently fast storm motions (15-20 knots) should support the potential for dry lightning strikes over receptive fuels. ..Moore.. 08/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0133 AM CDT Fri Aug 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions and isolated dry thunderstorms are expected across portions of the Four Corners and northern Rockies on Saturday afternoon. The upper trough currently traversing MT is expected to undergo slight de-amplification as it drifts east into the southern Canadian Prairies through late Saturday. As this occurs, both mid-level flow over the Intermountain West and surface pressure gradient winds will weaken, which will modulate the potential for reaching critical wind/RH conditions across the Four Corners region where fuels will remain very dry. However, deep diurnal mixing and lingering 15-25 mph winds within the lowest few kilometers should promote breezy conditions (sustained winds most likely between 15-20 mph) with single-digit to low-teen RH minimums. In addition to elevated fire weather conditions, weak orographic ascent off the Mogollon Rim in AZ/western NM as well as lift ahead of a weak embedded shortwave trough in the northern Rockies will promote areas of isolated thunderstorms. Dry air masses in both regions (PWATs generally less than 0.75 inches) coupled with sufficiently fast storm motions (15-20 knots) should support the potential for dry lightning strikes over receptive fuels. ..Moore.. 08/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0133 AM CDT Fri Aug 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions and isolated dry thunderstorms are expected across portions of the Four Corners and northern Rockies on Saturday afternoon. The upper trough currently traversing MT is expected to undergo slight de-amplification as it drifts east into the southern Canadian Prairies through late Saturday. As this occurs, both mid-level flow over the Intermountain West and surface pressure gradient winds will weaken, which will modulate the potential for reaching critical wind/RH conditions across the Four Corners region where fuels will remain very dry. However, deep diurnal mixing and lingering 15-25 mph winds within the lowest few kilometers should promote breezy conditions (sustained winds most likely between 15-20 mph) with single-digit to low-teen RH minimums. In addition to elevated fire weather conditions, weak orographic ascent off the Mogollon Rim in AZ/western NM as well as lift ahead of a weak embedded shortwave trough in the northern Rockies will promote areas of isolated thunderstorms. Dry air masses in both regions (PWATs generally less than 0.75 inches) coupled with sufficiently fast storm motions (15-20 knots) should support the potential for dry lightning strikes over receptive fuels. ..Moore.. 08/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0133 AM CDT Fri Aug 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions and isolated dry thunderstorms are expected across portions of the Four Corners and northern Rockies on Saturday afternoon. The upper trough currently traversing MT is expected to undergo slight de-amplification as it drifts east into the southern Canadian Prairies through late Saturday. As this occurs, both mid-level flow over the Intermountain West and surface pressure gradient winds will weaken, which will modulate the potential for reaching critical wind/RH conditions across the Four Corners region where fuels will remain very dry. However, deep diurnal mixing and lingering 15-25 mph winds within the lowest few kilometers should promote breezy conditions (sustained winds most likely between 15-20 mph) with single-digit to low-teen RH minimums. In addition to elevated fire weather conditions, weak orographic ascent off the Mogollon Rim in AZ/western NM as well as lift ahead of a weak embedded shortwave trough in the northern Rockies will promote areas of isolated thunderstorms. Dry air masses in both regions (PWATs generally less than 0.75 inches) coupled with sufficiently fast storm motions (15-20 knots) should support the potential for dry lightning strikes over receptive fuels. ..Moore.. 08/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0133 AM CDT Fri Aug 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions and isolated dry thunderstorms are expected across portions of the Four Corners and northern Rockies on Saturday afternoon. The upper trough currently traversing MT is expected to undergo slight de-amplification as it drifts east into the southern Canadian Prairies through late Saturday. As this occurs, both mid-level flow over the Intermountain West and surface pressure gradient winds will weaken, which will modulate the potential for reaching critical wind/RH conditions across the Four Corners region where fuels will remain very dry. However, deep diurnal mixing and lingering 15-25 mph winds within the lowest few kilometers should promote breezy conditions (sustained winds most likely between 15-20 mph) with single-digit to low-teen RH minimums. In addition to elevated fire weather conditions, weak orographic ascent off the Mogollon Rim in AZ/western NM as well as lift ahead of a weak embedded shortwave trough in the northern Rockies will promote areas of isolated thunderstorms. Dry air masses in both regions (PWATs generally less than 0.75 inches) coupled with sufficiently fast storm motions (15-20 knots) should support the potential for dry lightning strikes over receptive fuels. ..Moore.. 08/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0133 AM CDT Fri Aug 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions and isolated dry thunderstorms are expected across portions of the Four Corners and northern Rockies on Saturday afternoon. The upper trough currently traversing MT is expected to undergo slight de-amplification as it drifts east into the southern Canadian Prairies through late Saturday. As this occurs, both mid-level flow over the Intermountain West and surface pressure gradient winds will weaken, which will modulate the potential for reaching critical wind/RH conditions across the Four Corners region where fuels will remain very dry. However, deep diurnal mixing and lingering 15-25 mph winds within the lowest few kilometers should promote breezy conditions (sustained winds most likely between 15-20 mph) with single-digit to low-teen RH minimums. In addition to elevated fire weather conditions, weak orographic ascent off the Mogollon Rim in AZ/western NM as well as lift ahead of a weak embedded shortwave trough in the northern Rockies will promote areas of isolated thunderstorms. Dry air masses in both regions (PWATs generally less than 0.75 inches) coupled with sufficiently fast storm motions (15-20 knots) should support the potential for dry lightning strikes over receptive fuels. ..Moore.. 08/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0133 AM CDT Fri Aug 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions and isolated dry thunderstorms are expected across portions of the Four Corners and northern Rockies on Saturday afternoon. The upper trough currently traversing MT is expected to undergo slight de-amplification as it drifts east into the southern Canadian Prairies through late Saturday. As this occurs, both mid-level flow over the Intermountain West and surface pressure gradient winds will weaken, which will modulate the potential for reaching critical wind/RH conditions across the Four Corners region where fuels will remain very dry. However, deep diurnal mixing and lingering 15-25 mph winds within the lowest few kilometers should promote breezy conditions (sustained winds most likely between 15-20 mph) with single-digit to low-teen RH minimums. In addition to elevated fire weather conditions, weak orographic ascent off the Mogollon Rim in AZ/western NM as well as lift ahead of a weak embedded shortwave trough in the northern Rockies will promote areas of isolated thunderstorms. Dry air masses in both regions (PWATs generally less than 0.75 inches) coupled with sufficiently fast storm motions (15-20 knots) should support the potential for dry lightning strikes over receptive fuels. ..Moore.. 08/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0133 AM CDT Fri Aug 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions and isolated dry thunderstorms are expected across portions of the Four Corners and northern Rockies on Saturday afternoon. The upper trough currently traversing MT is expected to undergo slight de-amplification as it drifts east into the southern Canadian Prairies through late Saturday. As this occurs, both mid-level flow over the Intermountain West and surface pressure gradient winds will weaken, which will modulate the potential for reaching critical wind/RH conditions across the Four Corners region where fuels will remain very dry. However, deep diurnal mixing and lingering 15-25 mph winds within the lowest few kilometers should promote breezy conditions (sustained winds most likely between 15-20 mph) with single-digit to low-teen RH minimums. In addition to elevated fire weather conditions, weak orographic ascent off the Mogollon Rim in AZ/western NM as well as lift ahead of a weak embedded shortwave trough in the northern Rockies will promote areas of isolated thunderstorms. Dry air masses in both regions (PWATs generally less than 0.75 inches) coupled with sufficiently fast storm motions (15-20 knots) should support the potential for dry lightning strikes over receptive fuels. ..Moore.. 08/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0133 AM CDT Fri Aug 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions and isolated dry thunderstorms are expected across portions of the Four Corners and northern Rockies on Saturday afternoon. The upper trough currently traversing MT is expected to undergo slight de-amplification as it drifts east into the southern Canadian Prairies through late Saturday. As this occurs, both mid-level flow over the Intermountain West and surface pressure gradient winds will weaken, which will modulate the potential for reaching critical wind/RH conditions across the Four Corners region where fuels will remain very dry. However, deep diurnal mixing and lingering 15-25 mph winds within the lowest few kilometers should promote breezy conditions (sustained winds most likely between 15-20 mph) with single-digit to low-teen RH minimums. In addition to elevated fire weather conditions, weak orographic ascent off the Mogollon Rim in AZ/western NM as well as lift ahead of a weak embedded shortwave trough in the northern Rockies will promote areas of isolated thunderstorms. Dry air masses in both regions (PWATs generally less than 0.75 inches) coupled with sufficiently fast storm motions (15-20 knots) should support the potential for dry lightning strikes over receptive fuels. ..Moore.. 08/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 AM CDT Fri Aug 08 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE FOUR CORNERS INTO SOUTHERN WYOMING... ...Synopsis... Critical fire weather conditions are expected from northern Arizona into eastern UT, western CO, and southern WY this afternoon. Early-morning surface observations show southwesterly flow advecting hot/dry air out of the Mohave Desert and into the eastern Great Basin/Four Corners region. This will support another day of sub-10% RH minimums from northern AZ into UT and western CO. Aloft, the passage of a mid-level trough axis will support strengthening flow over the Intermountain West as well as lee troughing across the central High Plains. The result will be bolstered low-level flow across the Four Corners/central Rockies with most guidance suggesting that sustained winds between 20-25 mph are likely. Deep mixing through peak heating will promote frequent wind gusts between 30-45 mph, especially across south-central to eastern UT where ensemble guidance shows the strongest wind signal. Recent reports of active ongoing fires across UT/CO confirm that receptive fuels are in place and will support the Critical fire weather threat. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Lift ahead of the passing trough axis will impinge on the northeastern fringe of a modest plume of recycled monsoonal moisture and support isolated thunderstorm development by late afternoon from eastern AZ to southern CO. 00z RAOBs from across the Southwest sampled steep mid-level lapse rates, deep/dry boundary layers, and PWAT values on the order of 0.5 to 0.8 inches, which are all favorable for dry thunderstorms. While storm coverage is expected to be sparse, thunderstorms that do develop may pose a dry lightning threat over a region with 10-hour fuel moisture near 10% and ongoing moderate to severe drought. ..Moore.. 08/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 AM CDT Fri Aug 08 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE FOUR CORNERS INTO SOUTHERN WYOMING... ...Synopsis... Critical fire weather conditions are expected from northern Arizona into eastern UT, western CO, and southern WY this afternoon. Early-morning surface observations show southwesterly flow advecting hot/dry air out of the Mohave Desert and into the eastern Great Basin/Four Corners region. This will support another day of sub-10% RH minimums from northern AZ into UT and western CO. Aloft, the passage of a mid-level trough axis will support strengthening flow over the Intermountain West as well as lee troughing across the central High Plains. The result will be bolstered low-level flow across the Four Corners/central Rockies with most guidance suggesting that sustained winds between 20-25 mph are likely. Deep mixing through peak heating will promote frequent wind gusts between 30-45 mph, especially across south-central to eastern UT where ensemble guidance shows the strongest wind signal. Recent reports of active ongoing fires across UT/CO confirm that receptive fuels are in place and will support the Critical fire weather threat. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Lift ahead of the passing trough axis will impinge on the northeastern fringe of a modest plume of recycled monsoonal moisture and support isolated thunderstorm development by late afternoon from eastern AZ to southern CO. 00z RAOBs from across the Southwest sampled steep mid-level lapse rates, deep/dry boundary layers, and PWAT values on the order of 0.5 to 0.8 inches, which are all favorable for dry thunderstorms. While storm coverage is expected to be sparse, thunderstorms that do develop may pose a dry lightning threat over a region with 10-hour fuel moisture near 10% and ongoing moderate to severe drought. ..Moore.. 08/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 AM CDT Fri Aug 08 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE FOUR CORNERS INTO SOUTHERN WYOMING... ...Synopsis... Critical fire weather conditions are expected from northern Arizona into eastern UT, western CO, and southern WY this afternoon. Early-morning surface observations show southwesterly flow advecting hot/dry air out of the Mohave Desert and into the eastern Great Basin/Four Corners region. This will support another day of sub-10% RH minimums from northern AZ into UT and western CO. Aloft, the passage of a mid-level trough axis will support strengthening flow over the Intermountain West as well as lee troughing across the central High Plains. The result will be bolstered low-level flow across the Four Corners/central Rockies with most guidance suggesting that sustained winds between 20-25 mph are likely. Deep mixing through peak heating will promote frequent wind gusts between 30-45 mph, especially across south-central to eastern UT where ensemble guidance shows the strongest wind signal. Recent reports of active ongoing fires across UT/CO confirm that receptive fuels are in place and will support the Critical fire weather threat. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Lift ahead of the passing trough axis will impinge on the northeastern fringe of a modest plume of recycled monsoonal moisture and support isolated thunderstorm development by late afternoon from eastern AZ to southern CO. 00z RAOBs from across the Southwest sampled steep mid-level lapse rates, deep/dry boundary layers, and PWAT values on the order of 0.5 to 0.8 inches, which are all favorable for dry thunderstorms. While storm coverage is expected to be sparse, thunderstorms that do develop may pose a dry lightning threat over a region with 10-hour fuel moisture near 10% and ongoing moderate to severe drought. ..Moore.. 08/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 AM CDT Fri Aug 08 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE FOUR CORNERS INTO SOUTHERN WYOMING... ...Synopsis... Critical fire weather conditions are expected from northern Arizona into eastern UT, western CO, and southern WY this afternoon. Early-morning surface observations show southwesterly flow advecting hot/dry air out of the Mohave Desert and into the eastern Great Basin/Four Corners region. This will support another day of sub-10% RH minimums from northern AZ into UT and western CO. Aloft, the passage of a mid-level trough axis will support strengthening flow over the Intermountain West as well as lee troughing across the central High Plains. The result will be bolstered low-level flow across the Four Corners/central Rockies with most guidance suggesting that sustained winds between 20-25 mph are likely. Deep mixing through peak heating will promote frequent wind gusts between 30-45 mph, especially across south-central to eastern UT where ensemble guidance shows the strongest wind signal. Recent reports of active ongoing fires across UT/CO confirm that receptive fuels are in place and will support the Critical fire weather threat. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Lift ahead of the passing trough axis will impinge on the northeastern fringe of a modest plume of recycled monsoonal moisture and support isolated thunderstorm development by late afternoon from eastern AZ to southern CO. 00z RAOBs from across the Southwest sampled steep mid-level lapse rates, deep/dry boundary layers, and PWAT values on the order of 0.5 to 0.8 inches, which are all favorable for dry thunderstorms. While storm coverage is expected to be sparse, thunderstorms that do develop may pose a dry lightning threat over a region with 10-hour fuel moisture near 10% and ongoing moderate to severe drought. ..Moore.. 08/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 AM CDT Fri Aug 08 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE FOUR CORNERS INTO SOUTHERN WYOMING... ...Synopsis... Critical fire weather conditions are expected from northern Arizona into eastern UT, western CO, and southern WY this afternoon. Early-morning surface observations show southwesterly flow advecting hot/dry air out of the Mohave Desert and into the eastern Great Basin/Four Corners region. This will support another day of sub-10% RH minimums from northern AZ into UT and western CO. Aloft, the passage of a mid-level trough axis will support strengthening flow over the Intermountain West as well as lee troughing across the central High Plains. The result will be bolstered low-level flow across the Four Corners/central Rockies with most guidance suggesting that sustained winds between 20-25 mph are likely. Deep mixing through peak heating will promote frequent wind gusts between 30-45 mph, especially across south-central to eastern UT where ensemble guidance shows the strongest wind signal. Recent reports of active ongoing fires across UT/CO confirm that receptive fuels are in place and will support the Critical fire weather threat. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Lift ahead of the passing trough axis will impinge on the northeastern fringe of a modest plume of recycled monsoonal moisture and support isolated thunderstorm development by late afternoon from eastern AZ to southern CO. 00z RAOBs from across the Southwest sampled steep mid-level lapse rates, deep/dry boundary layers, and PWAT values on the order of 0.5 to 0.8 inches, which are all favorable for dry thunderstorms. While storm coverage is expected to be sparse, thunderstorms that do develop may pose a dry lightning threat over a region with 10-hour fuel moisture near 10% and ongoing moderate to severe drought. ..Moore.. 08/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 AM CDT Fri Aug 08 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE FOUR CORNERS INTO SOUTHERN WYOMING... ...Synopsis... Critical fire weather conditions are expected from northern Arizona into eastern UT, western CO, and southern WY this afternoon. Early-morning surface observations show southwesterly flow advecting hot/dry air out of the Mohave Desert and into the eastern Great Basin/Four Corners region. This will support another day of sub-10% RH minimums from northern AZ into UT and western CO. Aloft, the passage of a mid-level trough axis will support strengthening flow over the Intermountain West as well as lee troughing across the central High Plains. The result will be bolstered low-level flow across the Four Corners/central Rockies with most guidance suggesting that sustained winds between 20-25 mph are likely. Deep mixing through peak heating will promote frequent wind gusts between 30-45 mph, especially across south-central to eastern UT where ensemble guidance shows the strongest wind signal. Recent reports of active ongoing fires across UT/CO confirm that receptive fuels are in place and will support the Critical fire weather threat. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Lift ahead of the passing trough axis will impinge on the northeastern fringe of a modest plume of recycled monsoonal moisture and support isolated thunderstorm development by late afternoon from eastern AZ to southern CO. 00z RAOBs from across the Southwest sampled steep mid-level lapse rates, deep/dry boundary layers, and PWAT values on the order of 0.5 to 0.8 inches, which are all favorable for dry thunderstorms. While storm coverage is expected to be sparse, thunderstorms that do develop may pose a dry lightning threat over a region with 10-hour fuel moisture near 10% and ongoing moderate to severe drought. ..Moore.. 08/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 AM CDT Fri Aug 08 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE FOUR CORNERS INTO SOUTHERN WYOMING... ...Synopsis... Critical fire weather conditions are expected from northern Arizona into eastern UT, western CO, and southern WY this afternoon. Early-morning surface observations show southwesterly flow advecting hot/dry air out of the Mohave Desert and into the eastern Great Basin/Four Corners region. This will support another day of sub-10% RH minimums from northern AZ into UT and western CO. Aloft, the passage of a mid-level trough axis will support strengthening flow over the Intermountain West as well as lee troughing across the central High Plains. The result will be bolstered low-level flow across the Four Corners/central Rockies with most guidance suggesting that sustained winds between 20-25 mph are likely. Deep mixing through peak heating will promote frequent wind gusts between 30-45 mph, especially across south-central to eastern UT where ensemble guidance shows the strongest wind signal. Recent reports of active ongoing fires across UT/CO confirm that receptive fuels are in place and will support the Critical fire weather threat. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Lift ahead of the passing trough axis will impinge on the northeastern fringe of a modest plume of recycled monsoonal moisture and support isolated thunderstorm development by late afternoon from eastern AZ to southern CO. 00z RAOBs from across the Southwest sampled steep mid-level lapse rates, deep/dry boundary layers, and PWAT values on the order of 0.5 to 0.8 inches, which are all favorable for dry thunderstorms. While storm coverage is expected to be sparse, thunderstorms that do develop may pose a dry lightning threat over a region with 10-hour fuel moisture near 10% and ongoing moderate to severe drought. ..Moore.. 08/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 AM CDT Fri Aug 08 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE FOUR CORNERS INTO SOUTHERN WYOMING... ...Synopsis... Critical fire weather conditions are expected from northern Arizona into eastern UT, western CO, and southern WY this afternoon. Early-morning surface observations show southwesterly flow advecting hot/dry air out of the Mohave Desert and into the eastern Great Basin/Four Corners region. This will support another day of sub-10% RH minimums from northern AZ into UT and western CO. Aloft, the passage of a mid-level trough axis will support strengthening flow over the Intermountain West as well as lee troughing across the central High Plains. The result will be bolstered low-level flow across the Four Corners/central Rockies with most guidance suggesting that sustained winds between 20-25 mph are likely. Deep mixing through peak heating will promote frequent wind gusts between 30-45 mph, especially across south-central to eastern UT where ensemble guidance shows the strongest wind signal. Recent reports of active ongoing fires across UT/CO confirm that receptive fuels are in place and will support the Critical fire weather threat. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Lift ahead of the passing trough axis will impinge on the northeastern fringe of a modest plume of recycled monsoonal moisture and support isolated thunderstorm development by late afternoon from eastern AZ to southern CO. 00z RAOBs from across the Southwest sampled steep mid-level lapse rates, deep/dry boundary layers, and PWAT values on the order of 0.5 to 0.8 inches, which are all favorable for dry thunderstorms. While storm coverage is expected to be sparse, thunderstorms that do develop may pose a dry lightning threat over a region with 10-hour fuel moisture near 10% and ongoing moderate to severe drought. ..Moore.. 08/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 AM CDT Fri Aug 08 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE FOUR CORNERS INTO SOUTHERN WYOMING... ...Synopsis... Critical fire weather conditions are expected from northern Arizona into eastern UT, western CO, and southern WY this afternoon. Early-morning surface observations show southwesterly flow advecting hot/dry air out of the Mohave Desert and into the eastern Great Basin/Four Corners region. This will support another day of sub-10% RH minimums from northern AZ into UT and western CO. Aloft, the passage of a mid-level trough axis will support strengthening flow over the Intermountain West as well as lee troughing across the central High Plains. The result will be bolstered low-level flow across the Four Corners/central Rockies with most guidance suggesting that sustained winds between 20-25 mph are likely. Deep mixing through peak heating will promote frequent wind gusts between 30-45 mph, especially across south-central to eastern UT where ensemble guidance shows the strongest wind signal. Recent reports of active ongoing fires across UT/CO confirm that receptive fuels are in place and will support the Critical fire weather threat. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Lift ahead of the passing trough axis will impinge on the northeastern fringe of a modest plume of recycled monsoonal moisture and support isolated thunderstorm development by late afternoon from eastern AZ to southern CO. 00z RAOBs from across the Southwest sampled steep mid-level lapse rates, deep/dry boundary layers, and PWAT values on the order of 0.5 to 0.8 inches, which are all favorable for dry thunderstorms. While storm coverage is expected to be sparse, thunderstorms that do develop may pose a dry lightning threat over a region with 10-hour fuel moisture near 10% and ongoing moderate to severe drought. ..Moore.. 08/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more