Severe Storms

WW 0577 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0577 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0576 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 576 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE BHK TO 45 ESE SDY TO 25 W MOT TO 45 N MOT. ..SPC..08/08/25 ATTN...WFO...BIS...FGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 576 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NDC001-005-009-011-015-019-025-027-037-041-049-053-055-057-059- 061-065-069-071-075-079-083-087-089-095-101-103-080540- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS BENSON BOTTINEAU BOWMAN BURLEIGH CAVALIER DUNN EDDY GRANT HETTINGER MCHENRY MCKENZIE MCLEAN MERCER MORTON MOUNTRAIL OLIVER PIERCE RAMSEY RENVILLE ROLETTE SHERIDAN SLOPE STARK TOWNER WARD WELLS THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0576 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 576 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE BHK TO 45 ESE SDY TO 25 W MOT TO 45 N MOT. ..SPC..08/08/25 ATTN...WFO...BIS...FGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 576 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NDC001-005-009-011-015-019-025-027-037-041-049-053-055-057-059- 061-065-069-071-075-079-083-087-089-095-101-103-080540- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS BENSON BOTTINEAU BOWMAN BURLEIGH CAVALIER DUNN EDDY GRANT HETTINGER MCHENRY MCKENZIE MCLEAN MERCER MORTON MOUNTRAIL OLIVER PIERCE RAMSEY RENVILLE ROLETTE SHERIDAN SLOPE STARK TOWNER WARD WELLS THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

MD 1900 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR WESTERN AND NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 1900 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0739 PM CDT Thu Aug 07 2025 Areas affected...Western and northern North Dakota Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 080039Z - 080245Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Elevated thunderstorms will likely continue to pose a severe threat through the late evening hours across northern North Dakota. Additionally, a developing MCS will propagate along a warm front into central ND through the overnight hours. Watch issuance is likely. DISCUSSION...Over the past few hours, elevated convection has been percolating across northwest ND and eastward along the international border within a low-level warm advection regime. Within the past 30-60 minutes, MRMS and GOES IR imagery have shown an uptick in convective intensity, and surface observations show the development of a deepening cold pool. While recent CAM solutions hint that this activity will diminish in the coming hours, these observations suggest otherwise and fall in line with WoFS guidance that depict an increasing severe wind and hail risk across northern ND through early evening. Further upstream in MT, an MCS is beginning to mature along the I-94 corridor. This system is expected to intensify as it moves into far eastern MT/western ND where MLCAPE is considerably higher. This line is expected to propagate to the east/northeast along a surface warm front noted in recent surface observations, and should continue across ND through the overnight hours. Recent WoFS solutions hint at the potential for 2-3 inch hail with more discrete cells along the international border/northern ND, while winds between 70-90 mph will be possible with the developing MCS. Northeasterly low-level flow on the north side of a surface warm front may allow for adequate low-level SRH for some line-embedded tornado threat but confidence in this threat is limited away from the surface boundary. Regardless, watch issuance is expected to address these threats. ..Moore/Guyer.. 08/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...BYZ...GGW... LAT...LON 48709718 48149722 47659787 46869994 46210151 45990274 46000360 46250426 46730453 47310459 47760457 48600443 48920433 49080392 49079726 48709718 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...85-100 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN Read more

WW 0576 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 576 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..SPC..08/08/25 ATTN...WFO...BIS...FGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 576 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NDC001-005-007-009-011-013-015-019-023-025-027-033-037-041-049- 053-055-057-059-061-065-069-071-075-079-083-087-089-095-101-103- 105-080240- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS BENSON BILLINGS BOTTINEAU BOWMAN BURKE BURLEIGH CAVALIER DIVIDE DUNN EDDY GOLDEN VALLEY GRANT HETTINGER MCHENRY MCKENZIE MCLEAN MERCER MORTON MOUNTRAIL OLIVER PIERCE RAMSEY RENVILLE ROLETTE SHERIDAN SLOPE STARK TOWNER WARD WELLS WILLIAMS THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0576 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 576 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..SPC..08/08/25 ATTN...WFO...BIS...FGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 576 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NDC001-005-007-009-011-013-015-019-023-025-027-033-037-041-049- 053-055-057-059-061-065-069-071-075-079-083-087-089-095-101-103- 105-080240- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS BENSON BILLINGS BOTTINEAU BOWMAN BURKE BURLEIGH CAVALIER DIVIDE DUNN EDDY GOLDEN VALLEY GRANT HETTINGER MCHENRY MCKENZIE MCLEAN MERCER MORTON MOUNTRAIL OLIVER PIERCE RAMSEY RENVILLE ROLETTE SHERIDAN SLOPE STARK TOWNER WARD WELLS WILLIAMS THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0576 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 576 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..SPC..08/08/25 ATTN...WFO...BIS...FGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 576 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NDC001-005-007-009-011-013-015-019-023-025-027-033-037-041-049- 053-055-057-059-061-065-069-071-075-079-083-087-089-095-101-103- 105-080240- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS BENSON BILLINGS BOTTINEAU BOWMAN BURKE BURLEIGH CAVALIER DIVIDE DUNN EDDY GOLDEN VALLEY GRANT HETTINGER MCHENRY MCKENZIE MCLEAN MERCER MORTON MOUNTRAIL OLIVER PIERCE RAMSEY RENVILLE ROLETTE SHERIDAN SLOPE STARK TOWNER WARD WELLS WILLIAMS THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

MD 1899 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 575... FOR EASTERN MONTANA
Mesoscale Discussion 1899 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0728 PM CDT Thu Aug 07 2025 Areas affected...Eastern Montana Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 575... Valid 080028Z - 080230Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 575 continues. SUMMARY...Scattered strong-severe thunderstorms will spread across eastern Montana this evening. Wind and hail remain the primary threats. DISCUSSION...Leading edge of large-scale support appears to be spreading across central into eastern MT early this evening. Deep convection is responding to the upper trough with a gradually maturing squall line now evident from Yellowstone-Petroleum County. This linear MCS should gradually strengthen over the next few hours as it begins to surge east-northeast along a frontal zone that currently stretches from southeast MT-northwest ND. Wind profiles favor supercells, but current trends suggest a more complex mode will continue. If the aforementioned squall line continues to strengthen, damaging winds should become more likely, especially if bowing structures evolve. Strengthening LLJ is expected to encourage longevity as this activity spreads across the northern High Plains. ..Darrow.. 08/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW... LAT...LON 45170827 47630828 47920402 45450404 45170827 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN Read more

WW 0575 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 575 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NW SHR TO 55 W MLS TO 60 WNW MLS TO 55 SW GGW. ..SPC..08/08/25 ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 575 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MTC011-017-021-025-033-055-075-079-083-085-087-109-080240- MT . MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CARTER CUSTER DAWSON FALLON GARFIELD MCCONE POWDER RIVER PRAIRIE RICHLAND ROOSEVELT ROSEBUD WIBAUX THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0575 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 575 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NW SHR TO 55 W MLS TO 60 WNW MLS TO 55 SW GGW. ..SPC..08/08/25 ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 575 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MTC011-017-021-025-033-055-075-079-083-085-087-109-080240- MT . MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CARTER CUSTER DAWSON FALLON GARFIELD MCCONE POWDER RIVER PRAIRIE RICHLAND ROOSEVELT ROSEBUD WIBAUX THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0575 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 575 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NW SHR TO 55 W MLS TO 60 WNW MLS TO 55 SW GGW. ..SPC..08/08/25 ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 575 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MTC011-017-021-025-033-055-075-079-083-085-087-109-080240- MT . MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CARTER CUSTER DAWSON FALLON GARFIELD MCCONE POWDER RIVER PRAIRIE RICHLAND ROOSEVELT ROSEBUD WIBAUX THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0575 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 575 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NW SHR TO 55 W MLS TO 60 WNW MLS TO 55 SW GGW. ..SPC..08/08/25 ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 575 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MTC011-017-021-025-033-055-075-079-083-085-087-109-080240- MT . MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CARTER CUSTER DAWSON FALLON GARFIELD MCCONE POWDER RIVER PRAIRIE RICHLAND ROOSEVELT ROSEBUD WIBAUX THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0575 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 575 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NW SHR TO 55 W MLS TO 60 WNW MLS TO 55 SW GGW. ..SPC..08/08/25 ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 575 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MTC011-017-021-025-033-055-075-079-083-085-087-109-080240- MT . MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CARTER CUSTER DAWSON FALLON GARFIELD MCCONE POWDER RIVER PRAIRIE RICHLAND ROOSEVELT ROSEBUD WIBAUX THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0575 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 575 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NW SHR TO 55 W MLS TO 60 WNW MLS TO 55 SW GGW. ..SPC..08/08/25 ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 575 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MTC011-017-021-025-033-055-075-079-083-085-087-109-080240- MT . MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CARTER CUSTER DAWSON FALLON GARFIELD MCCONE POWDER RIVER PRAIRIE RICHLAND ROOSEVELT ROSEBUD WIBAUX THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 575 SEVERE TSTM MT 072150Z - 080500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 575 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 350 PM MDT Thu Aug 7 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Eastern Montana * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 350 PM until 1100 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Severe storms including a few supercells are expected to further develop late this afternoon and generally spread east-northeastward across much of eastern Montana through the evening. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 85 statute miles north and south of a line from 115 miles west of Miles City MT to 25 miles north northeast of Baker MT. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 25025. ...Guyer Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Thu Aug 07 2025 Valid 080100Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR ND AND ADJACENT PARTS OF EASTERN MT AND NORTHWEST MN... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected tonight across the northern Plains, in an area centered on North Dakota. One or more swaths of significant severe winds are possible, along with potential for large to very large hail and a few tornadoes. ...Northern Plains vicinity... Multiple storm clusters are ongoing this evening from south-central and eastern MT into northwest ND, with more isolated discrete development near a weak surface boundary across far northeast ND. The environment downstream of the MT storm clusters remains rather volatile, with rich low-level moisture, steep midlevel lapse rates, MLCAPE of 2000-4000 J/kg, and effective shear of 40-50 kt. As the ongoing storm clusters and attendant outflow move into this volatile environment through the evening, upscale growth into an intense MCS will be possible, potentially resulting in a swath of significant severe gusts moving across ND later this evening into the overnight hours. A couple supercells also remain possible, with a threat of very large hail. Backed surface winds and modestly enhanced low-level shear/SRH could also support some tornado potential, both with any sustained supercells, and embedded within any intense MCS that develops later tonight. See MCDs 1899 and 1900 for more information regarding the short-term threat in this area. While confidence remains high in an increasing severe threat this evening across ND, some uncertainty remains regarding the evolution of ongoing storms, and the favored corridor for significant-severe potential later tonight. Longevity and eastward extent of the threat overnight also remain somewhat uncertain, but some severe potential may reach parts of west-central/northwest MN by the end of the period. ...Central High Plains... Isolated strong to severe storms may continue through dusk from near the NE/SD border southward into northwest KS, within a strongly unstable and favorably sheared environment. Rather stout downstream MLCINH (which will continue to increase with time) is expected to limit the longevity of these storms, but some threat for hail and strong to severe gusts will continue for as long as these storms persist. ..Dean.. 08/08/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Thu Aug 07 2025 Valid 080100Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR ND AND ADJACENT PARTS OF EASTERN MT AND NORTHWEST MN... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected tonight across the northern Plains, in an area centered on North Dakota. One or more swaths of significant severe winds are possible, along with potential for large to very large hail and a few tornadoes. ...Northern Plains vicinity... Multiple storm clusters are ongoing this evening from south-central and eastern MT into northwest ND, with more isolated discrete development near a weak surface boundary across far northeast ND. The environment downstream of the MT storm clusters remains rather volatile, with rich low-level moisture, steep midlevel lapse rates, MLCAPE of 2000-4000 J/kg, and effective shear of 40-50 kt. As the ongoing storm clusters and attendant outflow move into this volatile environment through the evening, upscale growth into an intense MCS will be possible, potentially resulting in a swath of significant severe gusts moving across ND later this evening into the overnight hours. A couple supercells also remain possible, with a threat of very large hail. Backed surface winds and modestly enhanced low-level shear/SRH could also support some tornado potential, both with any sustained supercells, and embedded within any intense MCS that develops later tonight. See MCDs 1899 and 1900 for more information regarding the short-term threat in this area. While confidence remains high in an increasing severe threat this evening across ND, some uncertainty remains regarding the evolution of ongoing storms, and the favored corridor for significant-severe potential later tonight. Longevity and eastward extent of the threat overnight also remain somewhat uncertain, but some severe potential may reach parts of west-central/northwest MN by the end of the period. ...Central High Plains... Isolated strong to severe storms may continue through dusk from near the NE/SD border southward into northwest KS, within a strongly unstable and favorably sheared environment. Rather stout downstream MLCINH (which will continue to increase with time) is expected to limit the longevity of these storms, but some threat for hail and strong to severe gusts will continue for as long as these storms persist. ..Dean.. 08/08/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Thu Aug 07 2025 Valid 080100Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR ND AND ADJACENT PARTS OF EASTERN MT AND NORTHWEST MN... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected tonight across the northern Plains, in an area centered on North Dakota. One or more swaths of significant severe winds are possible, along with potential for large to very large hail and a few tornadoes. ...Northern Plains vicinity... Multiple storm clusters are ongoing this evening from south-central and eastern MT into northwest ND, with more isolated discrete development near a weak surface boundary across far northeast ND. The environment downstream of the MT storm clusters remains rather volatile, with rich low-level moisture, steep midlevel lapse rates, MLCAPE of 2000-4000 J/kg, and effective shear of 40-50 kt. As the ongoing storm clusters and attendant outflow move into this volatile environment through the evening, upscale growth into an intense MCS will be possible, potentially resulting in a swath of significant severe gusts moving across ND later this evening into the overnight hours. A couple supercells also remain possible, with a threat of very large hail. Backed surface winds and modestly enhanced low-level shear/SRH could also support some tornado potential, both with any sustained supercells, and embedded within any intense MCS that develops later tonight. See MCDs 1899 and 1900 for more information regarding the short-term threat in this area. While confidence remains high in an increasing severe threat this evening across ND, some uncertainty remains regarding the evolution of ongoing storms, and the favored corridor for significant-severe potential later tonight. Longevity and eastward extent of the threat overnight also remain somewhat uncertain, but some severe potential may reach parts of west-central/northwest MN by the end of the period. ...Central High Plains... Isolated strong to severe storms may continue through dusk from near the NE/SD border southward into northwest KS, within a strongly unstable and favorably sheared environment. Rather stout downstream MLCINH (which will continue to increase with time) is expected to limit the longevity of these storms, but some threat for hail and strong to severe gusts will continue for as long as these storms persist. ..Dean.. 08/08/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Thu Aug 07 2025 Valid 080100Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR ND AND ADJACENT PARTS OF EASTERN MT AND NORTHWEST MN... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected tonight across the northern Plains, in an area centered on North Dakota. One or more swaths of significant severe winds are possible, along with potential for large to very large hail and a few tornadoes. ...Northern Plains vicinity... Multiple storm clusters are ongoing this evening from south-central and eastern MT into northwest ND, with more isolated discrete development near a weak surface boundary across far northeast ND. The environment downstream of the MT storm clusters remains rather volatile, with rich low-level moisture, steep midlevel lapse rates, MLCAPE of 2000-4000 J/kg, and effective shear of 40-50 kt. As the ongoing storm clusters and attendant outflow move into this volatile environment through the evening, upscale growth into an intense MCS will be possible, potentially resulting in a swath of significant severe gusts moving across ND later this evening into the overnight hours. A couple supercells also remain possible, with a threat of very large hail. Backed surface winds and modestly enhanced low-level shear/SRH could also support some tornado potential, both with any sustained supercells, and embedded within any intense MCS that develops later tonight. See MCDs 1899 and 1900 for more information regarding the short-term threat in this area. While confidence remains high in an increasing severe threat this evening across ND, some uncertainty remains regarding the evolution of ongoing storms, and the favored corridor for significant-severe potential later tonight. Longevity and eastward extent of the threat overnight also remain somewhat uncertain, but some severe potential may reach parts of west-central/northwest MN by the end of the period. ...Central High Plains... Isolated strong to severe storms may continue through dusk from near the NE/SD border southward into northwest KS, within a strongly unstable and favorably sheared environment. Rather stout downstream MLCINH (which will continue to increase with time) is expected to limit the longevity of these storms, but some threat for hail and strong to severe gusts will continue for as long as these storms persist. ..Dean.. 08/08/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Thu Aug 07 2025 Valid 080100Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR ND AND ADJACENT PARTS OF EASTERN MT AND NORTHWEST MN... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected tonight across the northern Plains, in an area centered on North Dakota. One or more swaths of significant severe winds are possible, along with potential for large to very large hail and a few tornadoes. ...Northern Plains vicinity... Multiple storm clusters are ongoing this evening from south-central and eastern MT into northwest ND, with more isolated discrete development near a weak surface boundary across far northeast ND. The environment downstream of the MT storm clusters remains rather volatile, with rich low-level moisture, steep midlevel lapse rates, MLCAPE of 2000-4000 J/kg, and effective shear of 40-50 kt. As the ongoing storm clusters and attendant outflow move into this volatile environment through the evening, upscale growth into an intense MCS will be possible, potentially resulting in a swath of significant severe gusts moving across ND later this evening into the overnight hours. A couple supercells also remain possible, with a threat of very large hail. Backed surface winds and modestly enhanced low-level shear/SRH could also support some tornado potential, both with any sustained supercells, and embedded within any intense MCS that develops later tonight. See MCDs 1899 and 1900 for more information regarding the short-term threat in this area. While confidence remains high in an increasing severe threat this evening across ND, some uncertainty remains regarding the evolution of ongoing storms, and the favored corridor for significant-severe potential later tonight. Longevity and eastward extent of the threat overnight also remain somewhat uncertain, but some severe potential may reach parts of west-central/northwest MN by the end of the period. ...Central High Plains... Isolated strong to severe storms may continue through dusk from near the NE/SD border southward into northwest KS, within a strongly unstable and favorably sheared environment. Rather stout downstream MLCINH (which will continue to increase with time) is expected to limit the longevity of these storms, but some threat for hail and strong to severe gusts will continue for as long as these storms persist. ..Dean.. 08/08/2025 Read more