Severe Storms

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0450 PM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z Upper-level troughing will develop across the Pacific Northwest D3/Tuesday into D4/Wednesday, bringing an increase to winds amid dry conditions. Rain and thunderstorm chances may increase across this region by late in the period. As the western highs shifts into the Four Corners Region, monsoonal moisture may return northward across portions of Arizona through mid to lake week, with lingering isolated dry thunderstorm chances before a shift to more wetting rainfall potential. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Isolated thunderstorms D3/Tuesday - D5/Thursday will become more widely scattered with a gradual increase in moisture northward as the western high shifts into the Four Corners region through the weekend. This may lead to an increase in wetting rainfall, with less potential for dry thunderstorms. Some lingering isolated dry thunderstorm chances may be possible, but for now this threat appears too low for inclusion of any areas. ...Wind/RH... Breezy conditions are expected across the Pacific Northwest as the pattern becomes more progressive, with broad troughing and several shortwave disturbances moving through early to mid-week. The most widespread winds are expected D4/Wednesday, when Elevated to locally Critical conditions are expected across portions of the Columbia River Basin in eastern Washington and Oregon as a trough moves inland and enhanced westerly flow overspreads the Cascade Range. A 40% delineation was added with this outlook to cover this potential. ..Thornton.. 08/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0450 PM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z Upper-level troughing will develop across the Pacific Northwest D3/Tuesday into D4/Wednesday, bringing an increase to winds amid dry conditions. Rain and thunderstorm chances may increase across this region by late in the period. As the western highs shifts into the Four Corners Region, monsoonal moisture may return northward across portions of Arizona through mid to lake week, with lingering isolated dry thunderstorm chances before a shift to more wetting rainfall potential. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Isolated thunderstorms D3/Tuesday - D5/Thursday will become more widely scattered with a gradual increase in moisture northward as the western high shifts into the Four Corners region through the weekend. This may lead to an increase in wetting rainfall, with less potential for dry thunderstorms. Some lingering isolated dry thunderstorm chances may be possible, but for now this threat appears too low for inclusion of any areas. ...Wind/RH... Breezy conditions are expected across the Pacific Northwest as the pattern becomes more progressive, with broad troughing and several shortwave disturbances moving through early to mid-week. The most widespread winds are expected D4/Wednesday, when Elevated to locally Critical conditions are expected across portions of the Columbia River Basin in eastern Washington and Oregon as a trough moves inland and enhanced westerly flow overspreads the Cascade Range. A 40% delineation was added with this outlook to cover this potential. ..Thornton.. 08/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0450 PM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z Upper-level troughing will develop across the Pacific Northwest D3/Tuesday into D4/Wednesday, bringing an increase to winds amid dry conditions. Rain and thunderstorm chances may increase across this region by late in the period. As the western highs shifts into the Four Corners Region, monsoonal moisture may return northward across portions of Arizona through mid to lake week, with lingering isolated dry thunderstorm chances before a shift to more wetting rainfall potential. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Isolated thunderstorms D3/Tuesday - D5/Thursday will become more widely scattered with a gradual increase in moisture northward as the western high shifts into the Four Corners region through the weekend. This may lead to an increase in wetting rainfall, with less potential for dry thunderstorms. Some lingering isolated dry thunderstorm chances may be possible, but for now this threat appears too low for inclusion of any areas. ...Wind/RH... Breezy conditions are expected across the Pacific Northwest as the pattern becomes more progressive, with broad troughing and several shortwave disturbances moving through early to mid-week. The most widespread winds are expected D4/Wednesday, when Elevated to locally Critical conditions are expected across portions of the Columbia River Basin in eastern Washington and Oregon as a trough moves inland and enhanced westerly flow overspreads the Cascade Range. A 40% delineation was added with this outlook to cover this potential. ..Thornton.. 08/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Aug 10 21:47:15 UTC 2025.

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the central/southern Plains through tonight, with large hail and damaging winds the main threats. ...20z Update Front Range... Initial thunderstorms should continue to develop over the higher terrain of eastern CO and the Front Range as a broad upper trough shifts eastward and low-level upslope flow continues this afternoon. 1500 J/kg of MLCAPE and westerly flow aloft around 35-45 kt will support supercells. Steep mid-level lapse rates and cooler mid-level temperatures will favor an initial risk for hail before upscale growth results in an MCS tonight. Damaging gusts are possible into parts of the southern Plains. Have expanded the Slight Risk farther north/east where development is possible closer to the WY/CO border. ...Mid Mississippi Valley... Diurnal heating ahead of the weak cold front over the Midwest will continue to support moderate destabilization this afternoon. Ongoing thunderstorm clusters should gradually expand eastward as cold pools deepen. While vertical shear will not be strong, (generally less than 20 kt) an occasional damaging gust remains possible over parts of IL, MO and WI. Have expanded the Marginal risk eastward to cover the low-end risk. Otherwise, see the prior outlook for additional info. ..Lyons.. 08/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1121 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025/ ...CO/KS... Morning water vapor loop shows a vigorous shortwave trough digging southeastward into central CO. Large scale forcing for ascent ahead of this trough will aid in the development of scattered thunderstorms along the foothills of central CO by early afternoon, with storms spreading eastward through the afternoon/evening. Ample low-level moisture and CAPE are present over eastern CO/western KS to promote a few intense cells, with favorable westerly flow aloft for supercell structures. Large hail is the main concern, with an increasing risk of damaging winds with eastward extent this evening. A tornado or two is possible as storms interact with a remnant outflow boundary that extends across the TX Panhandle and northwest OK. ...MO/IL/WI... A corridor of strong heating will encourage scattered thunderstorm development this afternoon from southern MO into central/northeast IL. Weak winds aloft and considerable mid-level moisture will limit overall downdraft potential. Nevertheless, gusty/damaging winds could occur with the strongest cells. ...Southeast AZ... Similar to yesterday, scattered high-based afternoon/evening thunderstorm development is expected over southeast AZ in a hot/unstable environment. The strongest cells may produce locally damaging wind gusts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the central/southern Plains through tonight, with large hail and damaging winds the main threats. ...20z Update Front Range... Initial thunderstorms should continue to develop over the higher terrain of eastern CO and the Front Range as a broad upper trough shifts eastward and low-level upslope flow continues this afternoon. 1500 J/kg of MLCAPE and westerly flow aloft around 35-45 kt will support supercells. Steep mid-level lapse rates and cooler mid-level temperatures will favor an initial risk for hail before upscale growth results in an MCS tonight. Damaging gusts are possible into parts of the southern Plains. Have expanded the Slight Risk farther north/east where development is possible closer to the WY/CO border. ...Mid Mississippi Valley... Diurnal heating ahead of the weak cold front over the Midwest will continue to support moderate destabilization this afternoon. Ongoing thunderstorm clusters should gradually expand eastward as cold pools deepen. While vertical shear will not be strong, (generally less than 20 kt) an occasional damaging gust remains possible over parts of IL, MO and WI. Have expanded the Marginal risk eastward to cover the low-end risk. Otherwise, see the prior outlook for additional info. ..Lyons.. 08/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1121 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025/ ...CO/KS... Morning water vapor loop shows a vigorous shortwave trough digging southeastward into central CO. Large scale forcing for ascent ahead of this trough will aid in the development of scattered thunderstorms along the foothills of central CO by early afternoon, with storms spreading eastward through the afternoon/evening. Ample low-level moisture and CAPE are present over eastern CO/western KS to promote a few intense cells, with favorable westerly flow aloft for supercell structures. Large hail is the main concern, with an increasing risk of damaging winds with eastward extent this evening. A tornado or two is possible as storms interact with a remnant outflow boundary that extends across the TX Panhandle and northwest OK. ...MO/IL/WI... A corridor of strong heating will encourage scattered thunderstorm development this afternoon from southern MO into central/northeast IL. Weak winds aloft and considerable mid-level moisture will limit overall downdraft potential. Nevertheless, gusty/damaging winds could occur with the strongest cells. ...Southeast AZ... Similar to yesterday, scattered high-based afternoon/evening thunderstorm development is expected over southeast AZ in a hot/unstable environment. The strongest cells may produce locally damaging wind gusts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the central/southern Plains through tonight, with large hail and damaging winds the main threats. ...20z Update Front Range... Initial thunderstorms should continue to develop over the higher terrain of eastern CO and the Front Range as a broad upper trough shifts eastward and low-level upslope flow continues this afternoon. 1500 J/kg of MLCAPE and westerly flow aloft around 35-45 kt will support supercells. Steep mid-level lapse rates and cooler mid-level temperatures will favor an initial risk for hail before upscale growth results in an MCS tonight. Damaging gusts are possible into parts of the southern Plains. Have expanded the Slight Risk farther north/east where development is possible closer to the WY/CO border. ...Mid Mississippi Valley... Diurnal heating ahead of the weak cold front over the Midwest will continue to support moderate destabilization this afternoon. Ongoing thunderstorm clusters should gradually expand eastward as cold pools deepen. While vertical shear will not be strong, (generally less than 20 kt) an occasional damaging gust remains possible over parts of IL, MO and WI. Have expanded the Marginal risk eastward to cover the low-end risk. Otherwise, see the prior outlook for additional info. ..Lyons.. 08/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1121 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025/ ...CO/KS... Morning water vapor loop shows a vigorous shortwave trough digging southeastward into central CO. Large scale forcing for ascent ahead of this trough will aid in the development of scattered thunderstorms along the foothills of central CO by early afternoon, with storms spreading eastward through the afternoon/evening. Ample low-level moisture and CAPE are present over eastern CO/western KS to promote a few intense cells, with favorable westerly flow aloft for supercell structures. Large hail is the main concern, with an increasing risk of damaging winds with eastward extent this evening. A tornado or two is possible as storms interact with a remnant outflow boundary that extends across the TX Panhandle and northwest OK. ...MO/IL/WI... A corridor of strong heating will encourage scattered thunderstorm development this afternoon from southern MO into central/northeast IL. Weak winds aloft and considerable mid-level moisture will limit overall downdraft potential. Nevertheless, gusty/damaging winds could occur with the strongest cells. ...Southeast AZ... Similar to yesterday, scattered high-based afternoon/evening thunderstorm development is expected over southeast AZ in a hot/unstable environment. The strongest cells may produce locally damaging wind gusts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the central/southern Plains through tonight, with large hail and damaging winds the main threats. ...20z Update Front Range... Initial thunderstorms should continue to develop over the higher terrain of eastern CO and the Front Range as a broad upper trough shifts eastward and low-level upslope flow continues this afternoon. 1500 J/kg of MLCAPE and westerly flow aloft around 35-45 kt will support supercells. Steep mid-level lapse rates and cooler mid-level temperatures will favor an initial risk for hail before upscale growth results in an MCS tonight. Damaging gusts are possible into parts of the southern Plains. Have expanded the Slight Risk farther north/east where development is possible closer to the WY/CO border. ...Mid Mississippi Valley... Diurnal heating ahead of the weak cold front over the Midwest will continue to support moderate destabilization this afternoon. Ongoing thunderstorm clusters should gradually expand eastward as cold pools deepen. While vertical shear will not be strong, (generally less than 20 kt) an occasional damaging gust remains possible over parts of IL, MO and WI. Have expanded the Marginal risk eastward to cover the low-end risk. Otherwise, see the prior outlook for additional info. ..Lyons.. 08/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1121 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025/ ...CO/KS... Morning water vapor loop shows a vigorous shortwave trough digging southeastward into central CO. Large scale forcing for ascent ahead of this trough will aid in the development of scattered thunderstorms along the foothills of central CO by early afternoon, with storms spreading eastward through the afternoon/evening. Ample low-level moisture and CAPE are present over eastern CO/western KS to promote a few intense cells, with favorable westerly flow aloft for supercell structures. Large hail is the main concern, with an increasing risk of damaging winds with eastward extent this evening. A tornado or two is possible as storms interact with a remnant outflow boundary that extends across the TX Panhandle and northwest OK. ...MO/IL/WI... A corridor of strong heating will encourage scattered thunderstorm development this afternoon from southern MO into central/northeast IL. Weak winds aloft and considerable mid-level moisture will limit overall downdraft potential. Nevertheless, gusty/damaging winds could occur with the strongest cells. ...Southeast AZ... Similar to yesterday, scattered high-based afternoon/evening thunderstorm development is expected over southeast AZ in a hot/unstable environment. The strongest cells may produce locally damaging wind gusts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the central/southern Plains through tonight, with large hail and damaging winds the main threats. ...20z Update Front Range... Initial thunderstorms should continue to develop over the higher terrain of eastern CO and the Front Range as a broad upper trough shifts eastward and low-level upslope flow continues this afternoon. 1500 J/kg of MLCAPE and westerly flow aloft around 35-45 kt will support supercells. Steep mid-level lapse rates and cooler mid-level temperatures will favor an initial risk for hail before upscale growth results in an MCS tonight. Damaging gusts are possible into parts of the southern Plains. Have expanded the Slight Risk farther north/east where development is possible closer to the WY/CO border. ...Mid Mississippi Valley... Diurnal heating ahead of the weak cold front over the Midwest will continue to support moderate destabilization this afternoon. Ongoing thunderstorm clusters should gradually expand eastward as cold pools deepen. While vertical shear will not be strong, (generally less than 20 kt) an occasional damaging gust remains possible over parts of IL, MO and WI. Have expanded the Marginal risk eastward to cover the low-end risk. Otherwise, see the prior outlook for additional info. ..Lyons.. 08/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1121 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025/ ...CO/KS... Morning water vapor loop shows a vigorous shortwave trough digging southeastward into central CO. Large scale forcing for ascent ahead of this trough will aid in the development of scattered thunderstorms along the foothills of central CO by early afternoon, with storms spreading eastward through the afternoon/evening. Ample low-level moisture and CAPE are present over eastern CO/western KS to promote a few intense cells, with favorable westerly flow aloft for supercell structures. Large hail is the main concern, with an increasing risk of damaging winds with eastward extent this evening. A tornado or two is possible as storms interact with a remnant outflow boundary that extends across the TX Panhandle and northwest OK. ...MO/IL/WI... A corridor of strong heating will encourage scattered thunderstorm development this afternoon from southern MO into central/northeast IL. Weak winds aloft and considerable mid-level moisture will limit overall downdraft potential. Nevertheless, gusty/damaging winds could occur with the strongest cells. ...Southeast AZ... Similar to yesterday, scattered high-based afternoon/evening thunderstorm development is expected over southeast AZ in a hot/unstable environment. The strongest cells may produce locally damaging wind gusts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the central/southern Plains through tonight, with large hail and damaging winds the main threats. ...20z Update Front Range... Initial thunderstorms should continue to develop over the higher terrain of eastern CO and the Front Range as a broad upper trough shifts eastward and low-level upslope flow continues this afternoon. 1500 J/kg of MLCAPE and westerly flow aloft around 35-45 kt will support supercells. Steep mid-level lapse rates and cooler mid-level temperatures will favor an initial risk for hail before upscale growth results in an MCS tonight. Damaging gusts are possible into parts of the southern Plains. Have expanded the Slight Risk farther north/east where development is possible closer to the WY/CO border. ...Mid Mississippi Valley... Diurnal heating ahead of the weak cold front over the Midwest will continue to support moderate destabilization this afternoon. Ongoing thunderstorm clusters should gradually expand eastward as cold pools deepen. While vertical shear will not be strong, (generally less than 20 kt) an occasional damaging gust remains possible over parts of IL, MO and WI. Have expanded the Marginal risk eastward to cover the low-end risk. Otherwise, see the prior outlook for additional info. ..Lyons.. 08/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1121 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025/ ...CO/KS... Morning water vapor loop shows a vigorous shortwave trough digging southeastward into central CO. Large scale forcing for ascent ahead of this trough will aid in the development of scattered thunderstorms along the foothills of central CO by early afternoon, with storms spreading eastward through the afternoon/evening. Ample low-level moisture and CAPE are present over eastern CO/western KS to promote a few intense cells, with favorable westerly flow aloft for supercell structures. Large hail is the main concern, with an increasing risk of damaging winds with eastward extent this evening. A tornado or two is possible as storms interact with a remnant outflow boundary that extends across the TX Panhandle and northwest OK. ...MO/IL/WI... A corridor of strong heating will encourage scattered thunderstorm development this afternoon from southern MO into central/northeast IL. Weak winds aloft and considerable mid-level moisture will limit overall downdraft potential. Nevertheless, gusty/damaging winds could occur with the strongest cells. ...Southeast AZ... Similar to yesterday, scattered high-based afternoon/evening thunderstorm development is expected over southeast AZ in a hot/unstable environment. The strongest cells may produce locally damaging wind gusts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the central/southern Plains through tonight, with large hail and damaging winds the main threats. ...20z Update Front Range... Initial thunderstorms should continue to develop over the higher terrain of eastern CO and the Front Range as a broad upper trough shifts eastward and low-level upslope flow continues this afternoon. 1500 J/kg of MLCAPE and westerly flow aloft around 35-45 kt will support supercells. Steep mid-level lapse rates and cooler mid-level temperatures will favor an initial risk for hail before upscale growth results in an MCS tonight. Damaging gusts are possible into parts of the southern Plains. Have expanded the Slight Risk farther north/east where development is possible closer to the WY/CO border. ...Mid Mississippi Valley... Diurnal heating ahead of the weak cold front over the Midwest will continue to support moderate destabilization this afternoon. Ongoing thunderstorm clusters should gradually expand eastward as cold pools deepen. While vertical shear will not be strong, (generally less than 20 kt) an occasional damaging gust remains possible over parts of IL, MO and WI. Have expanded the Marginal risk eastward to cover the low-end risk. Otherwise, see the prior outlook for additional info. ..Lyons.. 08/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1121 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025/ ...CO/KS... Morning water vapor loop shows a vigorous shortwave trough digging southeastward into central CO. Large scale forcing for ascent ahead of this trough will aid in the development of scattered thunderstorms along the foothills of central CO by early afternoon, with storms spreading eastward through the afternoon/evening. Ample low-level moisture and CAPE are present over eastern CO/western KS to promote a few intense cells, with favorable westerly flow aloft for supercell structures. Large hail is the main concern, with an increasing risk of damaging winds with eastward extent this evening. A tornado or two is possible as storms interact with a remnant outflow boundary that extends across the TX Panhandle and northwest OK. ...MO/IL/WI... A corridor of strong heating will encourage scattered thunderstorm development this afternoon from southern MO into central/northeast IL. Weak winds aloft and considerable mid-level moisture will limit overall downdraft potential. Nevertheless, gusty/damaging winds could occur with the strongest cells. ...Southeast AZ... Similar to yesterday, scattered high-based afternoon/evening thunderstorm development is expected over southeast AZ in a hot/unstable environment. The strongest cells may produce locally damaging wind gusts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the central/southern Plains through tonight, with large hail and damaging winds the main threats. ...20z Update Front Range... Initial thunderstorms should continue to develop over the higher terrain of eastern CO and the Front Range as a broad upper trough shifts eastward and low-level upslope flow continues this afternoon. 1500 J/kg of MLCAPE and westerly flow aloft around 35-45 kt will support supercells. Steep mid-level lapse rates and cooler mid-level temperatures will favor an initial risk for hail before upscale growth results in an MCS tonight. Damaging gusts are possible into parts of the southern Plains. Have expanded the Slight Risk farther north/east where development is possible closer to the WY/CO border. ...Mid Mississippi Valley... Diurnal heating ahead of the weak cold front over the Midwest will continue to support moderate destabilization this afternoon. Ongoing thunderstorm clusters should gradually expand eastward as cold pools deepen. While vertical shear will not be strong, (generally less than 20 kt) an occasional damaging gust remains possible over parts of IL, MO and WI. Have expanded the Marginal risk eastward to cover the low-end risk. Otherwise, see the prior outlook for additional info. ..Lyons.. 08/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1121 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025/ ...CO/KS... Morning water vapor loop shows a vigorous shortwave trough digging southeastward into central CO. Large scale forcing for ascent ahead of this trough will aid in the development of scattered thunderstorms along the foothills of central CO by early afternoon, with storms spreading eastward through the afternoon/evening. Ample low-level moisture and CAPE are present over eastern CO/western KS to promote a few intense cells, with favorable westerly flow aloft for supercell structures. Large hail is the main concern, with an increasing risk of damaging winds with eastward extent this evening. A tornado or two is possible as storms interact with a remnant outflow boundary that extends across the TX Panhandle and northwest OK. ...MO/IL/WI... A corridor of strong heating will encourage scattered thunderstorm development this afternoon from southern MO into central/northeast IL. Weak winds aloft and considerable mid-level moisture will limit overall downdraft potential. Nevertheless, gusty/damaging winds could occur with the strongest cells. ...Southeast AZ... Similar to yesterday, scattered high-based afternoon/evening thunderstorm development is expected over southeast AZ in a hot/unstable environment. The strongest cells may produce locally damaging wind gusts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the central/southern Plains through tonight, with large hail and damaging winds the main threats. ...20z Update Front Range... Initial thunderstorms should continue to develop over the higher terrain of eastern CO and the Front Range as a broad upper trough shifts eastward and low-level upslope flow continues this afternoon. 1500 J/kg of MLCAPE and westerly flow aloft around 35-45 kt will support supercells. Steep mid-level lapse rates and cooler mid-level temperatures will favor an initial risk for hail before upscale growth results in an MCS tonight. Damaging gusts are possible into parts of the southern Plains. Have expanded the Slight Risk farther north/east where development is possible closer to the WY/CO border. ...Mid Mississippi Valley... Diurnal heating ahead of the weak cold front over the Midwest will continue to support moderate destabilization this afternoon. Ongoing thunderstorm clusters should gradually expand eastward as cold pools deepen. While vertical shear will not be strong, (generally less than 20 kt) an occasional damaging gust remains possible over parts of IL, MO and WI. Have expanded the Marginal risk eastward to cover the low-end risk. Otherwise, see the prior outlook for additional info. ..Lyons.. 08/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1121 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025/ ...CO/KS... Morning water vapor loop shows a vigorous shortwave trough digging southeastward into central CO. Large scale forcing for ascent ahead of this trough will aid in the development of scattered thunderstorms along the foothills of central CO by early afternoon, with storms spreading eastward through the afternoon/evening. Ample low-level moisture and CAPE are present over eastern CO/western KS to promote a few intense cells, with favorable westerly flow aloft for supercell structures. Large hail is the main concern, with an increasing risk of damaging winds with eastward extent this evening. A tornado or two is possible as storms interact with a remnant outflow boundary that extends across the TX Panhandle and northwest OK. ...MO/IL/WI... A corridor of strong heating will encourage scattered thunderstorm development this afternoon from southern MO into central/northeast IL. Weak winds aloft and considerable mid-level moisture will limit overall downdraft potential. Nevertheless, gusty/damaging winds could occur with the strongest cells. ...Southeast AZ... Similar to yesterday, scattered high-based afternoon/evening thunderstorm development is expected over southeast AZ in a hot/unstable environment. The strongest cells may produce locally damaging wind gusts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the central/southern Plains through tonight, with large hail and damaging winds the main threats. ...20z Update Front Range... Initial thunderstorms should continue to develop over the higher terrain of eastern CO and the Front Range as a broad upper trough shifts eastward and low-level upslope flow continues this afternoon. 1500 J/kg of MLCAPE and westerly flow aloft around 35-45 kt will support supercells. Steep mid-level lapse rates and cooler mid-level temperatures will favor an initial risk for hail before upscale growth results in an MCS tonight. Damaging gusts are possible into parts of the southern Plains. Have expanded the Slight Risk farther north/east where development is possible closer to the WY/CO border. ...Mid Mississippi Valley... Diurnal heating ahead of the weak cold front over the Midwest will continue to support moderate destabilization this afternoon. Ongoing thunderstorm clusters should gradually expand eastward as cold pools deepen. While vertical shear will not be strong, (generally less than 20 kt) an occasional damaging gust remains possible over parts of IL, MO and WI. Have expanded the Marginal risk eastward to cover the low-end risk. Otherwise, see the prior outlook for additional info. ..Lyons.. 08/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1121 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025/ ...CO/KS... Morning water vapor loop shows a vigorous shortwave trough digging southeastward into central CO. Large scale forcing for ascent ahead of this trough will aid in the development of scattered thunderstorms along the foothills of central CO by early afternoon, with storms spreading eastward through the afternoon/evening. Ample low-level moisture and CAPE are present over eastern CO/western KS to promote a few intense cells, with favorable westerly flow aloft for supercell structures. Large hail is the main concern, with an increasing risk of damaging winds with eastward extent this evening. A tornado or two is possible as storms interact with a remnant outflow boundary that extends across the TX Panhandle and northwest OK. ...MO/IL/WI... A corridor of strong heating will encourage scattered thunderstorm development this afternoon from southern MO into central/northeast IL. Weak winds aloft and considerable mid-level moisture will limit overall downdraft potential. Nevertheless, gusty/damaging winds could occur with the strongest cells. ...Southeast AZ... Similar to yesterday, scattered high-based afternoon/evening thunderstorm development is expected over southeast AZ in a hot/unstable environment. The strongest cells may produce locally damaging wind gusts. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 PM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 08/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0134 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to abate on Monday across the Four Corners region, though some threat for isolated dry thunderstorms will continue for parts of central AZ to far western NM. A shortwave trough evident in water-vapor imagery over WY/UT is forecast to weaken and stall over the southern High Plains by late Monday. This will favor subtle surface pressure rises across the eastern Great Basin/Four Corners region with relatively weaker low-level winds. Although sustained winds will be modest, deep mixing will promote occasional gusts upwards of 15-25 mph across northern AZ to northwest NM where RH values should fall into the low teens. Transient elevated conditions are possible, but poor deterministic agreement and/or ensemble consensus precluded introducing risk highlights. However, weak orographic ascent along the Mogollon Rim within a deeply-mixed, but weakly buoyant, air mass will support some potential for isolated dry thunderstorms. Given recent dry lightning over the region within a similar thermodynamic environment, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights were maintained and focused along and north of the more prominent terrain features. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 PM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 08/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0134 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to abate on Monday across the Four Corners region, though some threat for isolated dry thunderstorms will continue for parts of central AZ to far western NM. A shortwave trough evident in water-vapor imagery over WY/UT is forecast to weaken and stall over the southern High Plains by late Monday. This will favor subtle surface pressure rises across the eastern Great Basin/Four Corners region with relatively weaker low-level winds. Although sustained winds will be modest, deep mixing will promote occasional gusts upwards of 15-25 mph across northern AZ to northwest NM where RH values should fall into the low teens. Transient elevated conditions are possible, but poor deterministic agreement and/or ensemble consensus precluded introducing risk highlights. However, weak orographic ascent along the Mogollon Rim within a deeply-mixed, but weakly buoyant, air mass will support some potential for isolated dry thunderstorms. Given recent dry lightning over the region within a similar thermodynamic environment, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights were maintained and focused along and north of the more prominent terrain features. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 PM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 08/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0134 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to abate on Monday across the Four Corners region, though some threat for isolated dry thunderstorms will continue for parts of central AZ to far western NM. A shortwave trough evident in water-vapor imagery over WY/UT is forecast to weaken and stall over the southern High Plains by late Monday. This will favor subtle surface pressure rises across the eastern Great Basin/Four Corners region with relatively weaker low-level winds. Although sustained winds will be modest, deep mixing will promote occasional gusts upwards of 15-25 mph across northern AZ to northwest NM where RH values should fall into the low teens. Transient elevated conditions are possible, but poor deterministic agreement and/or ensemble consensus precluded introducing risk highlights. However, weak orographic ascent along the Mogollon Rim within a deeply-mixed, but weakly buoyant, air mass will support some potential for isolated dry thunderstorms. Given recent dry lightning over the region within a similar thermodynamic environment, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights were maintained and focused along and north of the more prominent terrain features. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 PM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 08/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0134 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to abate on Monday across the Four Corners region, though some threat for isolated dry thunderstorms will continue for parts of central AZ to far western NM. A shortwave trough evident in water-vapor imagery over WY/UT is forecast to weaken and stall over the southern High Plains by late Monday. This will favor subtle surface pressure rises across the eastern Great Basin/Four Corners region with relatively weaker low-level winds. Although sustained winds will be modest, deep mixing will promote occasional gusts upwards of 15-25 mph across northern AZ to northwest NM where RH values should fall into the low teens. Transient elevated conditions are possible, but poor deterministic agreement and/or ensemble consensus precluded introducing risk highlights. However, weak orographic ascent along the Mogollon Rim within a deeply-mixed, but weakly buoyant, air mass will support some potential for isolated dry thunderstorms. Given recent dry lightning over the region within a similar thermodynamic environment, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights were maintained and focused along and north of the more prominent terrain features. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 PM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 08/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0134 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to abate on Monday across the Four Corners region, though some threat for isolated dry thunderstorms will continue for parts of central AZ to far western NM. A shortwave trough evident in water-vapor imagery over WY/UT is forecast to weaken and stall over the southern High Plains by late Monday. This will favor subtle surface pressure rises across the eastern Great Basin/Four Corners region with relatively weaker low-level winds. Although sustained winds will be modest, deep mixing will promote occasional gusts upwards of 15-25 mph across northern AZ to northwest NM where RH values should fall into the low teens. Transient elevated conditions are possible, but poor deterministic agreement and/or ensemble consensus precluded introducing risk highlights. However, weak orographic ascent along the Mogollon Rim within a deeply-mixed, but weakly buoyant, air mass will support some potential for isolated dry thunderstorms. Given recent dry lightning over the region within a similar thermodynamic environment, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights were maintained and focused along and north of the more prominent terrain features. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 PM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 08/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0134 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to abate on Monday across the Four Corners region, though some threat for isolated dry thunderstorms will continue for parts of central AZ to far western NM. A shortwave trough evident in water-vapor imagery over WY/UT is forecast to weaken and stall over the southern High Plains by late Monday. This will favor subtle surface pressure rises across the eastern Great Basin/Four Corners region with relatively weaker low-level winds. Although sustained winds will be modest, deep mixing will promote occasional gusts upwards of 15-25 mph across northern AZ to northwest NM where RH values should fall into the low teens. Transient elevated conditions are possible, but poor deterministic agreement and/or ensemble consensus precluded introducing risk highlights. However, weak orographic ascent along the Mogollon Rim within a deeply-mixed, but weakly buoyant, air mass will support some potential for isolated dry thunderstorms. Given recent dry lightning over the region within a similar thermodynamic environment, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights were maintained and focused along and north of the more prominent terrain features. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more