Severe Storms

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1144 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025 Valid 101700Z - 111200Z Minor adjustments were made to the Isolated Dry Thunderstorm chances across Arizona in alignment with recent trends in hi-res guidance. Otherwise, the Elevated area remains unchanged. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 08/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0103 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will continue for today across parts of the Four Corners/Southwest region. Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts a pronounced mid-level perturbation traversing UT/WY as of 06 UTC. This feature is expected to reach AZ/NM by peak heating this afternoon, which will induce west/northwesterly mid-level flow across the greater Four Corners region. Although low-level pressure gradient winds will likely remain somewhat modest (generally around 15 mph), deep mixing will promote downward mixing of 20-30 mph gusts across far southern UT into northern AZ and northwest NM. Dry conditions will persist and support another day of RH minimums in the single digits and elevated fire weather conditions. More aggressive solutions, such as the HRRR and RAP that have a tendency to over-mix, hint that elevated conditions may extend as far north as eastern UT/western CO, but general ensemble consensus is meager. Therefore opted to maintain highlights mainly over AZ/NM where confidence in sustained elevated conditions is higher. In addition to supporting elevated fire weather conditions, the mid-level perturbation will also promote isolated to scattered thunderstorm development across the greater Southwest and southern High Plains region. Convection developing along the Mogollon Rim will likely develop on the fringe of the deeper monsoonal moisture where PWATs should remain near 0.75 inches and LCLs will likely reach 3-4 km. These thermodynamic conditions were observed yesterday afternoon/evening (e.g. the 00z ABQ sounding) across the region and yielded isolated dry lightning strikes. As such, a similar risk for dry lightning should manifest this afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1144 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025 Valid 101700Z - 111200Z Minor adjustments were made to the Isolated Dry Thunderstorm chances across Arizona in alignment with recent trends in hi-res guidance. Otherwise, the Elevated area remains unchanged. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 08/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0103 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will continue for today across parts of the Four Corners/Southwest region. Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts a pronounced mid-level perturbation traversing UT/WY as of 06 UTC. This feature is expected to reach AZ/NM by peak heating this afternoon, which will induce west/northwesterly mid-level flow across the greater Four Corners region. Although low-level pressure gradient winds will likely remain somewhat modest (generally around 15 mph), deep mixing will promote downward mixing of 20-30 mph gusts across far southern UT into northern AZ and northwest NM. Dry conditions will persist and support another day of RH minimums in the single digits and elevated fire weather conditions. More aggressive solutions, such as the HRRR and RAP that have a tendency to over-mix, hint that elevated conditions may extend as far north as eastern UT/western CO, but general ensemble consensus is meager. Therefore opted to maintain highlights mainly over AZ/NM where confidence in sustained elevated conditions is higher. In addition to supporting elevated fire weather conditions, the mid-level perturbation will also promote isolated to scattered thunderstorm development across the greater Southwest and southern High Plains region. Convection developing along the Mogollon Rim will likely develop on the fringe of the deeper monsoonal moisture where PWATs should remain near 0.75 inches and LCLs will likely reach 3-4 km. These thermodynamic conditions were observed yesterday afternoon/evening (e.g. the 00z ABQ sounding) across the region and yielded isolated dry lightning strikes. As such, a similar risk for dry lightning should manifest this afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1144 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025 Valid 101700Z - 111200Z Minor adjustments were made to the Isolated Dry Thunderstorm chances across Arizona in alignment with recent trends in hi-res guidance. Otherwise, the Elevated area remains unchanged. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 08/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0103 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will continue for today across parts of the Four Corners/Southwest region. Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts a pronounced mid-level perturbation traversing UT/WY as of 06 UTC. This feature is expected to reach AZ/NM by peak heating this afternoon, which will induce west/northwesterly mid-level flow across the greater Four Corners region. Although low-level pressure gradient winds will likely remain somewhat modest (generally around 15 mph), deep mixing will promote downward mixing of 20-30 mph gusts across far southern UT into northern AZ and northwest NM. Dry conditions will persist and support another day of RH minimums in the single digits and elevated fire weather conditions. More aggressive solutions, such as the HRRR and RAP that have a tendency to over-mix, hint that elevated conditions may extend as far north as eastern UT/western CO, but general ensemble consensus is meager. Therefore opted to maintain highlights mainly over AZ/NM where confidence in sustained elevated conditions is higher. In addition to supporting elevated fire weather conditions, the mid-level perturbation will also promote isolated to scattered thunderstorm development across the greater Southwest and southern High Plains region. Convection developing along the Mogollon Rim will likely develop on the fringe of the deeper monsoonal moisture where PWATs should remain near 0.75 inches and LCLs will likely reach 3-4 km. These thermodynamic conditions were observed yesterday afternoon/evening (e.g. the 00z ABQ sounding) across the region and yielded isolated dry lightning strikes. As such, a similar risk for dry lightning should manifest this afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1144 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025 Valid 101700Z - 111200Z Minor adjustments were made to the Isolated Dry Thunderstorm chances across Arizona in alignment with recent trends in hi-res guidance. Otherwise, the Elevated area remains unchanged. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 08/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0103 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will continue for today across parts of the Four Corners/Southwest region. Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts a pronounced mid-level perturbation traversing UT/WY as of 06 UTC. This feature is expected to reach AZ/NM by peak heating this afternoon, which will induce west/northwesterly mid-level flow across the greater Four Corners region. Although low-level pressure gradient winds will likely remain somewhat modest (generally around 15 mph), deep mixing will promote downward mixing of 20-30 mph gusts across far southern UT into northern AZ and northwest NM. Dry conditions will persist and support another day of RH minimums in the single digits and elevated fire weather conditions. More aggressive solutions, such as the HRRR and RAP that have a tendency to over-mix, hint that elevated conditions may extend as far north as eastern UT/western CO, but general ensemble consensus is meager. Therefore opted to maintain highlights mainly over AZ/NM where confidence in sustained elevated conditions is higher. In addition to supporting elevated fire weather conditions, the mid-level perturbation will also promote isolated to scattered thunderstorm development across the greater Southwest and southern High Plains region. Convection developing along the Mogollon Rim will likely develop on the fringe of the deeper monsoonal moisture where PWATs should remain near 0.75 inches and LCLs will likely reach 3-4 km. These thermodynamic conditions were observed yesterday afternoon/evening (e.g. the 00z ABQ sounding) across the region and yielded isolated dry lightning strikes. As such, a similar risk for dry lightning should manifest this afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1144 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025 Valid 101700Z - 111200Z Minor adjustments were made to the Isolated Dry Thunderstorm chances across Arizona in alignment with recent trends in hi-res guidance. Otherwise, the Elevated area remains unchanged. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 08/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0103 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will continue for today across parts of the Four Corners/Southwest region. Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts a pronounced mid-level perturbation traversing UT/WY as of 06 UTC. This feature is expected to reach AZ/NM by peak heating this afternoon, which will induce west/northwesterly mid-level flow across the greater Four Corners region. Although low-level pressure gradient winds will likely remain somewhat modest (generally around 15 mph), deep mixing will promote downward mixing of 20-30 mph gusts across far southern UT into northern AZ and northwest NM. Dry conditions will persist and support another day of RH minimums in the single digits and elevated fire weather conditions. More aggressive solutions, such as the HRRR and RAP that have a tendency to over-mix, hint that elevated conditions may extend as far north as eastern UT/western CO, but general ensemble consensus is meager. Therefore opted to maintain highlights mainly over AZ/NM where confidence in sustained elevated conditions is higher. In addition to supporting elevated fire weather conditions, the mid-level perturbation will also promote isolated to scattered thunderstorm development across the greater Southwest and southern High Plains region. Convection developing along the Mogollon Rim will likely develop on the fringe of the deeper monsoonal moisture where PWATs should remain near 0.75 inches and LCLs will likely reach 3-4 km. These thermodynamic conditions were observed yesterday afternoon/evening (e.g. the 00z ABQ sounding) across the region and yielded isolated dry lightning strikes. As such, a similar risk for dry lightning should manifest this afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025 Valid 101630Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the central/southern Plains today and tonight, with large hail and damaging winds the main threats. ...CO/KS... Morning water vapor loop shows a vigorous shortwave trough digging southeastward into central CO. Large scale forcing for ascent ahead of this trough will aid in the development of scattered thunderstorms along the foothills of central CO by early afternoon, with storms spreading eastward through the afternoon/evening. Ample low-level moisture and CAPE are present over eastern CO/western KS to promote a few intense cells, with favorable westerly flow aloft for supercell structures. Large hail is the main concern, with an increasing risk of damaging winds with eastward extent this evening. A tornado or two is possible as storms interact with a remnant outflow boundary that extends across the TX Panhandle and northwest OK. ...MO/IL/WI... A corridor of strong heating will encourage scattered thunderstorm development this afternoon from southern MO into central/northeast IL. Weak winds aloft and considerable mid-level moisture will limit overall downdraft potential. Nevertheless, gusty/damaging winds could occur with the strongest cells. ...Southeast AZ... Similar to yesterday, scattered high-based afternoon/evening thunderstorm development is expected over southeast AZ in a hot/unstable environment. The strongest cells may produce locally damaging wind gusts. ..Hart/Squitieri.. 08/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025 Valid 101630Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the central/southern Plains today and tonight, with large hail and damaging winds the main threats. ...CO/KS... Morning water vapor loop shows a vigorous shortwave trough digging southeastward into central CO. Large scale forcing for ascent ahead of this trough will aid in the development of scattered thunderstorms along the foothills of central CO by early afternoon, with storms spreading eastward through the afternoon/evening. Ample low-level moisture and CAPE are present over eastern CO/western KS to promote a few intense cells, with favorable westerly flow aloft for supercell structures. Large hail is the main concern, with an increasing risk of damaging winds with eastward extent this evening. A tornado or two is possible as storms interact with a remnant outflow boundary that extends across the TX Panhandle and northwest OK. ...MO/IL/WI... A corridor of strong heating will encourage scattered thunderstorm development this afternoon from southern MO into central/northeast IL. Weak winds aloft and considerable mid-level moisture will limit overall downdraft potential. Nevertheless, gusty/damaging winds could occur with the strongest cells. ...Southeast AZ... Similar to yesterday, scattered high-based afternoon/evening thunderstorm development is expected over southeast AZ in a hot/unstable environment. The strongest cells may produce locally damaging wind gusts. ..Hart/Squitieri.. 08/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025 Valid 101630Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the central/southern Plains today and tonight, with large hail and damaging winds the main threats. ...CO/KS... Morning water vapor loop shows a vigorous shortwave trough digging southeastward into central CO. Large scale forcing for ascent ahead of this trough will aid in the development of scattered thunderstorms along the foothills of central CO by early afternoon, with storms spreading eastward through the afternoon/evening. Ample low-level moisture and CAPE are present over eastern CO/western KS to promote a few intense cells, with favorable westerly flow aloft for supercell structures. Large hail is the main concern, with an increasing risk of damaging winds with eastward extent this evening. A tornado or two is possible as storms interact with a remnant outflow boundary that extends across the TX Panhandle and northwest OK. ...MO/IL/WI... A corridor of strong heating will encourage scattered thunderstorm development this afternoon from southern MO into central/northeast IL. Weak winds aloft and considerable mid-level moisture will limit overall downdraft potential. Nevertheless, gusty/damaging winds could occur with the strongest cells. ...Southeast AZ... Similar to yesterday, scattered high-based afternoon/evening thunderstorm development is expected over southeast AZ in a hot/unstable environment. The strongest cells may produce locally damaging wind gusts. ..Hart/Squitieri.. 08/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025 Valid 101630Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the central/southern Plains today and tonight, with large hail and damaging winds the main threats. ...CO/KS... Morning water vapor loop shows a vigorous shortwave trough digging southeastward into central CO. Large scale forcing for ascent ahead of this trough will aid in the development of scattered thunderstorms along the foothills of central CO by early afternoon, with storms spreading eastward through the afternoon/evening. Ample low-level moisture and CAPE are present over eastern CO/western KS to promote a few intense cells, with favorable westerly flow aloft for supercell structures. Large hail is the main concern, with an increasing risk of damaging winds with eastward extent this evening. A tornado or two is possible as storms interact with a remnant outflow boundary that extends across the TX Panhandle and northwest OK. ...MO/IL/WI... A corridor of strong heating will encourage scattered thunderstorm development this afternoon from southern MO into central/northeast IL. Weak winds aloft and considerable mid-level moisture will limit overall downdraft potential. Nevertheless, gusty/damaging winds could occur with the strongest cells. ...Southeast AZ... Similar to yesterday, scattered high-based afternoon/evening thunderstorm development is expected over southeast AZ in a hot/unstable environment. The strongest cells may produce locally damaging wind gusts. ..Hart/Squitieri.. 08/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025 Valid 101630Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the central/southern Plains today and tonight, with large hail and damaging winds the main threats. ...CO/KS... Morning water vapor loop shows a vigorous shortwave trough digging southeastward into central CO. Large scale forcing for ascent ahead of this trough will aid in the development of scattered thunderstorms along the foothills of central CO by early afternoon, with storms spreading eastward through the afternoon/evening. Ample low-level moisture and CAPE are present over eastern CO/western KS to promote a few intense cells, with favorable westerly flow aloft for supercell structures. Large hail is the main concern, with an increasing risk of damaging winds with eastward extent this evening. A tornado or two is possible as storms interact with a remnant outflow boundary that extends across the TX Panhandle and northwest OK. ...MO/IL/WI... A corridor of strong heating will encourage scattered thunderstorm development this afternoon from southern MO into central/northeast IL. Weak winds aloft and considerable mid-level moisture will limit overall downdraft potential. Nevertheless, gusty/damaging winds could occur with the strongest cells. ...Southeast AZ... Similar to yesterday, scattered high-based afternoon/evening thunderstorm development is expected over southeast AZ in a hot/unstable environment. The strongest cells may produce locally damaging wind gusts. ..Hart/Squitieri.. 08/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025 Valid 101630Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the central/southern Plains today and tonight, with large hail and damaging winds the main threats. ...CO/KS... Morning water vapor loop shows a vigorous shortwave trough digging southeastward into central CO. Large scale forcing for ascent ahead of this trough will aid in the development of scattered thunderstorms along the foothills of central CO by early afternoon, with storms spreading eastward through the afternoon/evening. Ample low-level moisture and CAPE are present over eastern CO/western KS to promote a few intense cells, with favorable westerly flow aloft for supercell structures. Large hail is the main concern, with an increasing risk of damaging winds with eastward extent this evening. A tornado or two is possible as storms interact with a remnant outflow boundary that extends across the TX Panhandle and northwest OK. ...MO/IL/WI... A corridor of strong heating will encourage scattered thunderstorm development this afternoon from southern MO into central/northeast IL. Weak winds aloft and considerable mid-level moisture will limit overall downdraft potential. Nevertheless, gusty/damaging winds could occur with the strongest cells. ...Southeast AZ... Similar to yesterday, scattered high-based afternoon/evening thunderstorm development is expected over southeast AZ in a hot/unstable environment. The strongest cells may produce locally damaging wind gusts. ..Hart/Squitieri.. 08/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025 Valid 101630Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the central/southern Plains today and tonight, with large hail and damaging winds the main threats. ...CO/KS... Morning water vapor loop shows a vigorous shortwave trough digging southeastward into central CO. Large scale forcing for ascent ahead of this trough will aid in the development of scattered thunderstorms along the foothills of central CO by early afternoon, with storms spreading eastward through the afternoon/evening. Ample low-level moisture and CAPE are present over eastern CO/western KS to promote a few intense cells, with favorable westerly flow aloft for supercell structures. Large hail is the main concern, with an increasing risk of damaging winds with eastward extent this evening. A tornado or two is possible as storms interact with a remnant outflow boundary that extends across the TX Panhandle and northwest OK. ...MO/IL/WI... A corridor of strong heating will encourage scattered thunderstorm development this afternoon from southern MO into central/northeast IL. Weak winds aloft and considerable mid-level moisture will limit overall downdraft potential. Nevertheless, gusty/damaging winds could occur with the strongest cells. ...Southeast AZ... Similar to yesterday, scattered high-based afternoon/evening thunderstorm development is expected over southeast AZ in a hot/unstable environment. The strongest cells may produce locally damaging wind gusts. ..Hart/Squitieri.. 08/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025 Valid 101630Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the central/southern Plains today and tonight, with large hail and damaging winds the main threats. ...CO/KS... Morning water vapor loop shows a vigorous shortwave trough digging southeastward into central CO. Large scale forcing for ascent ahead of this trough will aid in the development of scattered thunderstorms along the foothills of central CO by early afternoon, with storms spreading eastward through the afternoon/evening. Ample low-level moisture and CAPE are present over eastern CO/western KS to promote a few intense cells, with favorable westerly flow aloft for supercell structures. Large hail is the main concern, with an increasing risk of damaging winds with eastward extent this evening. A tornado or two is possible as storms interact with a remnant outflow boundary that extends across the TX Panhandle and northwest OK. ...MO/IL/WI... A corridor of strong heating will encourage scattered thunderstorm development this afternoon from southern MO into central/northeast IL. Weak winds aloft and considerable mid-level moisture will limit overall downdraft potential. Nevertheless, gusty/damaging winds could occur with the strongest cells. ...Southeast AZ... Similar to yesterday, scattered high-based afternoon/evening thunderstorm development is expected over southeast AZ in a hot/unstable environment. The strongest cells may produce locally damaging wind gusts. ..Hart/Squitieri.. 08/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025 Valid 101630Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the central/southern Plains today and tonight, with large hail and damaging winds the main threats. ...CO/KS... Morning water vapor loop shows a vigorous shortwave trough digging southeastward into central CO. Large scale forcing for ascent ahead of this trough will aid in the development of scattered thunderstorms along the foothills of central CO by early afternoon, with storms spreading eastward through the afternoon/evening. Ample low-level moisture and CAPE are present over eastern CO/western KS to promote a few intense cells, with favorable westerly flow aloft for supercell structures. Large hail is the main concern, with an increasing risk of damaging winds with eastward extent this evening. A tornado or two is possible as storms interact with a remnant outflow boundary that extends across the TX Panhandle and northwest OK. ...MO/IL/WI... A corridor of strong heating will encourage scattered thunderstorm development this afternoon from southern MO into central/northeast IL. Weak winds aloft and considerable mid-level moisture will limit overall downdraft potential. Nevertheless, gusty/damaging winds could occur with the strongest cells. ...Southeast AZ... Similar to yesterday, scattered high-based afternoon/evening thunderstorm development is expected over southeast AZ in a hot/unstable environment. The strongest cells may produce locally damaging wind gusts. ..Hart/Squitieri.. 08/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0734 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025 Valid 101300Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the central/southern Plains today and tonight, with large hail and damaging winds the main threats. Strong to severe thunderstorms may also occur from parts of the Midwest to the upper Great Lakes. ...Eastern Kansas/Missouri/Iowa to the Upper Great Lakes... Loosely organized convection is ongoing this morning across parts of eastern IA, aided by modest low-level warm advection and a MCV. While this activity has generally remained sub-severe for the past few hours, there is some potential for gradual re-intensification through the afternoon as the MCV tracks northeastward across parts of the Upper Midwest. While cloud cover is noted downstream per early-morning visible satellite imagery, filtered daytime heating should encourage the development of weak to locally moderate instability by early to mid afternoon over portions of WI and vicinity ahead of a weak front. It remains unclear whether a bowing cluster will be able to form later today, but isolated damaging winds may occur if it develops and can persist. Farther south across eastern KS into MO, ongoing thunderstorms are occurring generally to the north of a convectively reinforced outflow boundary/front. While this elevated activity could pose an isolated hail/wind threat this morning, it is generally forecast to diminish by late morning as a southwesterly low-level jet gradually weakens. However, additional thunderstorm development may occur this afternoon/evening along and south of the outflow boundary in MO as daytime heating of a rather moist low-level airmass supports moderate to strong instability. Deep-layer shear will remain weak across this area, but occasional severe/damaging gusts could still occur given the large degree of buoyancy forecast. ...Central/Southern Plains... Extensive convective overturning yesterday/early this morning should result in a less unstable post-frontal airmass across the central/southern High Plains compared to Saturday. Even so, steep mid-level lapse rates emanating from the Southwest should once again overspread a modestly moist low-level airmass this afternoon. This will foster the development of weak to moderate instability in tandem with daytime heating. Thunderstorms will likely develop over the higher terrain/CO Front Range by early afternoon as a weak mid-level shortwave trough presently over eastern UT/western CO moves eastward. Sufficient deep-layer shear for organized updrafts is forecast, including the potential for a few supercells with associated threat for mainly large hail, and perhaps a tornado. With time, clustering should occur over the central/southern High Plains along and perhaps a bit north of the convectively reinforced front/outflow boundary. Ample MUCAPE, steepened lapse rates aloft, and a modest southerly low-level jet should support some threat for severe gusts with one or more clusters that may spread eastward this evening and overnight. Have expanded the Slight Risk eastward across parts of western/central KS, the adjacent OK/TX Panhandles, and northwest OK based on a consensus of recent model guidance showing this potential. ..Gleason/Leitman.. 08/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0734 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025 Valid 101300Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the central/southern Plains today and tonight, with large hail and damaging winds the main threats. Strong to severe thunderstorms may also occur from parts of the Midwest to the upper Great Lakes. ...Eastern Kansas/Missouri/Iowa to the Upper Great Lakes... Loosely organized convection is ongoing this morning across parts of eastern IA, aided by modest low-level warm advection and a MCV. While this activity has generally remained sub-severe for the past few hours, there is some potential for gradual re-intensification through the afternoon as the MCV tracks northeastward across parts of the Upper Midwest. While cloud cover is noted downstream per early-morning visible satellite imagery, filtered daytime heating should encourage the development of weak to locally moderate instability by early to mid afternoon over portions of WI and vicinity ahead of a weak front. It remains unclear whether a bowing cluster will be able to form later today, but isolated damaging winds may occur if it develops and can persist. Farther south across eastern KS into MO, ongoing thunderstorms are occurring generally to the north of a convectively reinforced outflow boundary/front. While this elevated activity could pose an isolated hail/wind threat this morning, it is generally forecast to diminish by late morning as a southwesterly low-level jet gradually weakens. However, additional thunderstorm development may occur this afternoon/evening along and south of the outflow boundary in MO as daytime heating of a rather moist low-level airmass supports moderate to strong instability. Deep-layer shear will remain weak across this area, but occasional severe/damaging gusts could still occur given the large degree of buoyancy forecast. ...Central/Southern Plains... Extensive convective overturning yesterday/early this morning should result in a less unstable post-frontal airmass across the central/southern High Plains compared to Saturday. Even so, steep mid-level lapse rates emanating from the Southwest should once again overspread a modestly moist low-level airmass this afternoon. This will foster the development of weak to moderate instability in tandem with daytime heating. Thunderstorms will likely develop over the higher terrain/CO Front Range by early afternoon as a weak mid-level shortwave trough presently over eastern UT/western CO moves eastward. Sufficient deep-layer shear for organized updrafts is forecast, including the potential for a few supercells with associated threat for mainly large hail, and perhaps a tornado. With time, clustering should occur over the central/southern High Plains along and perhaps a bit north of the convectively reinforced front/outflow boundary. Ample MUCAPE, steepened lapse rates aloft, and a modest southerly low-level jet should support some threat for severe gusts with one or more clusters that may spread eastward this evening and overnight. Have expanded the Slight Risk eastward across parts of western/central KS, the adjacent OK/TX Panhandles, and northwest OK based on a consensus of recent model guidance showing this potential. ..Gleason/Leitman.. 08/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0734 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025 Valid 101300Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the central/southern Plains today and tonight, with large hail and damaging winds the main threats. Strong to severe thunderstorms may also occur from parts of the Midwest to the upper Great Lakes. ...Eastern Kansas/Missouri/Iowa to the Upper Great Lakes... Loosely organized convection is ongoing this morning across parts of eastern IA, aided by modest low-level warm advection and a MCV. While this activity has generally remained sub-severe for the past few hours, there is some potential for gradual re-intensification through the afternoon as the MCV tracks northeastward across parts of the Upper Midwest. While cloud cover is noted downstream per early-morning visible satellite imagery, filtered daytime heating should encourage the development of weak to locally moderate instability by early to mid afternoon over portions of WI and vicinity ahead of a weak front. It remains unclear whether a bowing cluster will be able to form later today, but isolated damaging winds may occur if it develops and can persist. Farther south across eastern KS into MO, ongoing thunderstorms are occurring generally to the north of a convectively reinforced outflow boundary/front. While this elevated activity could pose an isolated hail/wind threat this morning, it is generally forecast to diminish by late morning as a southwesterly low-level jet gradually weakens. However, additional thunderstorm development may occur this afternoon/evening along and south of the outflow boundary in MO as daytime heating of a rather moist low-level airmass supports moderate to strong instability. Deep-layer shear will remain weak across this area, but occasional severe/damaging gusts could still occur given the large degree of buoyancy forecast. ...Central/Southern Plains... Extensive convective overturning yesterday/early this morning should result in a less unstable post-frontal airmass across the central/southern High Plains compared to Saturday. Even so, steep mid-level lapse rates emanating from the Southwest should once again overspread a modestly moist low-level airmass this afternoon. This will foster the development of weak to moderate instability in tandem with daytime heating. Thunderstorms will likely develop over the higher terrain/CO Front Range by early afternoon as a weak mid-level shortwave trough presently over eastern UT/western CO moves eastward. Sufficient deep-layer shear for organized updrafts is forecast, including the potential for a few supercells with associated threat for mainly large hail, and perhaps a tornado. With time, clustering should occur over the central/southern High Plains along and perhaps a bit north of the convectively reinforced front/outflow boundary. Ample MUCAPE, steepened lapse rates aloft, and a modest southerly low-level jet should support some threat for severe gusts with one or more clusters that may spread eastward this evening and overnight. Have expanded the Slight Risk eastward across parts of western/central KS, the adjacent OK/TX Panhandles, and northwest OK based on a consensus of recent model guidance showing this potential. ..Gleason/Leitman.. 08/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0734 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025 Valid 101300Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the central/southern Plains today and tonight, with large hail and damaging winds the main threats. Strong to severe thunderstorms may also occur from parts of the Midwest to the upper Great Lakes. ...Eastern Kansas/Missouri/Iowa to the Upper Great Lakes... Loosely organized convection is ongoing this morning across parts of eastern IA, aided by modest low-level warm advection and a MCV. While this activity has generally remained sub-severe for the past few hours, there is some potential for gradual re-intensification through the afternoon as the MCV tracks northeastward across parts of the Upper Midwest. While cloud cover is noted downstream per early-morning visible satellite imagery, filtered daytime heating should encourage the development of weak to locally moderate instability by early to mid afternoon over portions of WI and vicinity ahead of a weak front. It remains unclear whether a bowing cluster will be able to form later today, but isolated damaging winds may occur if it develops and can persist. Farther south across eastern KS into MO, ongoing thunderstorms are occurring generally to the north of a convectively reinforced outflow boundary/front. While this elevated activity could pose an isolated hail/wind threat this morning, it is generally forecast to diminish by late morning as a southwesterly low-level jet gradually weakens. However, additional thunderstorm development may occur this afternoon/evening along and south of the outflow boundary in MO as daytime heating of a rather moist low-level airmass supports moderate to strong instability. Deep-layer shear will remain weak across this area, but occasional severe/damaging gusts could still occur given the large degree of buoyancy forecast. ...Central/Southern Plains... Extensive convective overturning yesterday/early this morning should result in a less unstable post-frontal airmass across the central/southern High Plains compared to Saturday. Even so, steep mid-level lapse rates emanating from the Southwest should once again overspread a modestly moist low-level airmass this afternoon. This will foster the development of weak to moderate instability in tandem with daytime heating. Thunderstorms will likely develop over the higher terrain/CO Front Range by early afternoon as a weak mid-level shortwave trough presently over eastern UT/western CO moves eastward. Sufficient deep-layer shear for organized updrafts is forecast, including the potential for a few supercells with associated threat for mainly large hail, and perhaps a tornado. With time, clustering should occur over the central/southern High Plains along and perhaps a bit north of the convectively reinforced front/outflow boundary. Ample MUCAPE, steepened lapse rates aloft, and a modest southerly low-level jet should support some threat for severe gusts with one or more clusters that may spread eastward this evening and overnight. Have expanded the Slight Risk eastward across parts of western/central KS, the adjacent OK/TX Panhandles, and northwest OK based on a consensus of recent model guidance showing this potential. ..Gleason/Leitman.. 08/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0734 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025 Valid 101300Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the central/southern Plains today and tonight, with large hail and damaging winds the main threats. Strong to severe thunderstorms may also occur from parts of the Midwest to the upper Great Lakes. ...Eastern Kansas/Missouri/Iowa to the Upper Great Lakes... Loosely organized convection is ongoing this morning across parts of eastern IA, aided by modest low-level warm advection and a MCV. While this activity has generally remained sub-severe for the past few hours, there is some potential for gradual re-intensification through the afternoon as the MCV tracks northeastward across parts of the Upper Midwest. While cloud cover is noted downstream per early-morning visible satellite imagery, filtered daytime heating should encourage the development of weak to locally moderate instability by early to mid afternoon over portions of WI and vicinity ahead of a weak front. It remains unclear whether a bowing cluster will be able to form later today, but isolated damaging winds may occur if it develops and can persist. Farther south across eastern KS into MO, ongoing thunderstorms are occurring generally to the north of a convectively reinforced outflow boundary/front. While this elevated activity could pose an isolated hail/wind threat this morning, it is generally forecast to diminish by late morning as a southwesterly low-level jet gradually weakens. However, additional thunderstorm development may occur this afternoon/evening along and south of the outflow boundary in MO as daytime heating of a rather moist low-level airmass supports moderate to strong instability. Deep-layer shear will remain weak across this area, but occasional severe/damaging gusts could still occur given the large degree of buoyancy forecast. ...Central/Southern Plains... Extensive convective overturning yesterday/early this morning should result in a less unstable post-frontal airmass across the central/southern High Plains compared to Saturday. Even so, steep mid-level lapse rates emanating from the Southwest should once again overspread a modestly moist low-level airmass this afternoon. This will foster the development of weak to moderate instability in tandem with daytime heating. Thunderstorms will likely develop over the higher terrain/CO Front Range by early afternoon as a weak mid-level shortwave trough presently over eastern UT/western CO moves eastward. Sufficient deep-layer shear for organized updrafts is forecast, including the potential for a few supercells with associated threat for mainly large hail, and perhaps a tornado. With time, clustering should occur over the central/southern High Plains along and perhaps a bit north of the convectively reinforced front/outflow boundary. Ample MUCAPE, steepened lapse rates aloft, and a modest southerly low-level jet should support some threat for severe gusts with one or more clusters that may spread eastward this evening and overnight. Have expanded the Slight Risk eastward across parts of western/central KS, the adjacent OK/TX Panhandles, and northwest OK based on a consensus of recent model guidance showing this potential. ..Gleason/Leitman.. 08/10/2025 Read more

MD 1921 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 584... FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IA
Mesoscale Discussion 1921 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025 Areas affected...portions of central IA Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 584... Valid 100959Z - 101130Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 584 continues. SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe wind gusts remain possible across central Iowa. DISCUSSION...A cluster of storms will continue to track northeast across central Iowa this morning. Overall radar presentation has become somewhat disorganized, but a corridor of 60-70 kt velocity signatures aloft are still noted to the west of the Des Moines vicinity. Instability decreases gradually with northeast extent, and stronger effective shear magnitudes remain displaced to the north. While severe gusts are possible over the next couple of hours, the expectation is that a gradual weakening trend will continue as convection develops northeast. ..Leitman.. 08/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...DMX...OAX... LAT...LON 42049209 41559278 41279360 41059453 41129495 41339497 41979471 42619336 42839257 42659203 42049209 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more