Severe Storms

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0734 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025 Valid 101300Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the central/southern Plains today and tonight, with large hail and damaging winds the main threats. Strong to severe thunderstorms may also occur from parts of the Midwest to the upper Great Lakes. ...Eastern Kansas/Missouri/Iowa to the Upper Great Lakes... Loosely organized convection is ongoing this morning across parts of eastern IA, aided by modest low-level warm advection and a MCV. While this activity has generally remained sub-severe for the past few hours, there is some potential for gradual re-intensification through the afternoon as the MCV tracks northeastward across parts of the Upper Midwest. While cloud cover is noted downstream per early-morning visible satellite imagery, filtered daytime heating should encourage the development of weak to locally moderate instability by early to mid afternoon over portions of WI and vicinity ahead of a weak front. It remains unclear whether a bowing cluster will be able to form later today, but isolated damaging winds may occur if it develops and can persist. Farther south across eastern KS into MO, ongoing thunderstorms are occurring generally to the north of a convectively reinforced outflow boundary/front. While this elevated activity could pose an isolated hail/wind threat this morning, it is generally forecast to diminish by late morning as a southwesterly low-level jet gradually weakens. However, additional thunderstorm development may occur this afternoon/evening along and south of the outflow boundary in MO as daytime heating of a rather moist low-level airmass supports moderate to strong instability. Deep-layer shear will remain weak across this area, but occasional severe/damaging gusts could still occur given the large degree of buoyancy forecast. ...Central/Southern Plains... Extensive convective overturning yesterday/early this morning should result in a less unstable post-frontal airmass across the central/southern High Plains compared to Saturday. Even so, steep mid-level lapse rates emanating from the Southwest should once again overspread a modestly moist low-level airmass this afternoon. This will foster the development of weak to moderate instability in tandem with daytime heating. Thunderstorms will likely develop over the higher terrain/CO Front Range by early afternoon as a weak mid-level shortwave trough presently over eastern UT/western CO moves eastward. Sufficient deep-layer shear for organized updrafts is forecast, including the potential for a few supercells with associated threat for mainly large hail, and perhaps a tornado. With time, clustering should occur over the central/southern High Plains along and perhaps a bit north of the convectively reinforced front/outflow boundary. Ample MUCAPE, steepened lapse rates aloft, and a modest southerly low-level jet should support some threat for severe gusts with one or more clusters that may spread eastward this evening and overnight. Have expanded the Slight Risk eastward across parts of western/central KS, the adjacent OK/TX Panhandles, and northwest OK based on a consensus of recent model guidance showing this potential. ..Gleason/Leitman.. 08/10/2025 Read more

MD 1921 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 584... FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IA
Mesoscale Discussion 1921 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025 Areas affected...portions of central IA Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 584... Valid 100959Z - 101130Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 584 continues. SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe wind gusts remain possible across central Iowa. DISCUSSION...A cluster of storms will continue to track northeast across central Iowa this morning. Overall radar presentation has become somewhat disorganized, but a corridor of 60-70 kt velocity signatures aloft are still noted to the west of the Des Moines vicinity. Instability decreases gradually with northeast extent, and stronger effective shear magnitudes remain displaced to the north. While severe gusts are possible over the next couple of hours, the expectation is that a gradual weakening trend will continue as convection develops northeast. ..Leitman.. 08/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...DMX...OAX... LAT...LON 42049209 41559278 41279360 41059453 41129495 41339497 41979471 42619336 42839257 42659203 42049209 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

WW 0584 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 584 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ENE OXV TO 10 W DSM TO 45 SSW FOD TO 10 SE DNS. ..LEITMAN..08/10/25 ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 584 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC015-023-025-027-049-069-073-075-079-083-091-099-127-151-153- 169-187-197-101140- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOONE BUTLER CALHOUN CARROLL DALLAS FRANKLIN GREENE GRUNDY HAMILTON HARDIN HUMBOLDT JASPER MARSHALL POCAHONTAS POLK STORY WEBSTER WRIGHT THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0584 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 584 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ENE OXV TO 10 W DSM TO 45 SSW FOD TO 10 SE DNS. ..LEITMAN..08/10/25 ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 584 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC015-023-025-027-049-069-073-075-079-083-091-099-127-151-153- 169-187-197-101140- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOONE BUTLER CALHOUN CARROLL DALLAS FRANKLIN GREENE GRUNDY HAMILTON HARDIN HUMBOLDT JASPER MARSHALL POCAHONTAS POLK STORY WEBSTER WRIGHT THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 584 SEVERE TSTM IA KS MO 100750Z - 101300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 584 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 250 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southern and Central Iowa Far Northeast Kansas Northwest Missouri * Effective this Sunday morning from 250 AM until 800 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...A bowing complex of thunderstorms will continue to move east-northeastward early this morning while posing a threat for mainly scattered severe/damaging winds. Peak gusts may reach up to 65-75 mph on an isolated basis. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles north and south of a line from 75 miles west of Lamoni IA to 15 miles northeast of Knoxville IA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 582...WW 583... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 25040. ...Gleason Read more

MD 1920 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN/CENTRAL IOWA AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI
Mesoscale Discussion 1920 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0144 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025 Areas affected...portions of southern/central Iowa and northwest Missouri Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely Valid 100644Z - 100845Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...A severe wind risk is expected to spread east/northeast into portions of southern/central Iowa and northwest Missouri early this morning. A severe thunderstorm watch issuance is likely by 08-09z. DISCUSSION...A well organized bowing MCS producing 60-85 mph gusts across southeast NE/northeast KS is expected to persist east/northeast through early morning into portions of Iowa and northwest MO. A 30 kt south/southwesterly low-level jet is maintaining robust warm advection ahead of the bowing MCS within a very moist and strongly unstable airmass. This system is expected continue east/northeast near/along a surface boundary extending northeast from southeast NE into central/northeast IA. Effective shear does decrease with eastward extent, but given the organized nature of the MCS with a well-defined rear-inflow jet and bookend vortex on the north side, the system is likely to continue producing severe gusts/wind damage give the favorable downstream thermodynamic environment. However, uncertainty does exist on the southward extent of severe potential across MO. While latest CAMs show the system lifting northeast along the surface boundary with gradual weakening on the southern extent, the system has yet to shift more northeasterly. ..Leitman/Gleason.. 08/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP... LAT...LON 41309577 42119391 42189318 42039271 41719241 41199242 40749266 39879430 39619534 39759578 41309577 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0324 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025 Valid 131200Z - 181200Z ...DISCUSSION... From Wednesday/D4 into Thursday/D5, a shortwave trough is forecast to move from the Pacific Northwest across MT and over the far northern Plains, with an upper speed max developing into southern SK and MB. In advance of this trough, a leading trough affecting the Great Lakes region will also lift northeastward, with height rises and a warming pattern across parts of the Plains and upper Midwest. The combination of increasing dewpoints and the upper trough glancing the region may result in some manner of severe risk late Thursday/D5, and most likely from parts of ND into northern MN, and in evening/overnight MCS form. Future model trends will be monitored for a possible risk area. From Friday/D6 onward, predictability decreases with the motion of the aforementioned upper wave. However, large instability is likely to again build across the Mid MO/Upper MS Valleys, and at least sporadic severe storms cannot be ruled out from the northern High Plains eastward toward the Upper Great Lakes. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0324 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025 Valid 131200Z - 181200Z ...DISCUSSION... From Wednesday/D4 into Thursday/D5, a shortwave trough is forecast to move from the Pacific Northwest across MT and over the far northern Plains, with an upper speed max developing into southern SK and MB. In advance of this trough, a leading trough affecting the Great Lakes region will also lift northeastward, with height rises and a warming pattern across parts of the Plains and upper Midwest. The combination of increasing dewpoints and the upper trough glancing the region may result in some manner of severe risk late Thursday/D5, and most likely from parts of ND into northern MN, and in evening/overnight MCS form. Future model trends will be monitored for a possible risk area. From Friday/D6 onward, predictability decreases with the motion of the aforementioned upper wave. However, large instability is likely to again build across the Mid MO/Upper MS Valleys, and at least sporadic severe storms cannot be ruled out from the northern High Plains eastward toward the Upper Great Lakes. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0324 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025 Valid 131200Z - 181200Z ...DISCUSSION... From Wednesday/D4 into Thursday/D5, a shortwave trough is forecast to move from the Pacific Northwest across MT and over the far northern Plains, with an upper speed max developing into southern SK and MB. In advance of this trough, a leading trough affecting the Great Lakes region will also lift northeastward, with height rises and a warming pattern across parts of the Plains and upper Midwest. The combination of increasing dewpoints and the upper trough glancing the region may result in some manner of severe risk late Thursday/D5, and most likely from parts of ND into northern MN, and in evening/overnight MCS form. Future model trends will be monitored for a possible risk area. From Friday/D6 onward, predictability decreases with the motion of the aforementioned upper wave. However, large instability is likely to again build across the Mid MO/Upper MS Valleys, and at least sporadic severe storms cannot be ruled out from the northern High Plains eastward toward the Upper Great Lakes. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0324 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025 Valid 131200Z - 181200Z ...DISCUSSION... From Wednesday/D4 into Thursday/D5, a shortwave trough is forecast to move from the Pacific Northwest across MT and over the far northern Plains, with an upper speed max developing into southern SK and MB. In advance of this trough, a leading trough affecting the Great Lakes region will also lift northeastward, with height rises and a warming pattern across parts of the Plains and upper Midwest. The combination of increasing dewpoints and the upper trough glancing the region may result in some manner of severe risk late Thursday/D5, and most likely from parts of ND into northern MN, and in evening/overnight MCS form. Future model trends will be monitored for a possible risk area. From Friday/D6 onward, predictability decreases with the motion of the aforementioned upper wave. However, large instability is likely to again build across the Mid MO/Upper MS Valleys, and at least sporadic severe storms cannot be ruled out from the northern High Plains eastward toward the Upper Great Lakes. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0324 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025 Valid 131200Z - 181200Z ...DISCUSSION... From Wednesday/D4 into Thursday/D5, a shortwave trough is forecast to move from the Pacific Northwest across MT and over the far northern Plains, with an upper speed max developing into southern SK and MB. In advance of this trough, a leading trough affecting the Great Lakes region will also lift northeastward, with height rises and a warming pattern across parts of the Plains and upper Midwest. The combination of increasing dewpoints and the upper trough glancing the region may result in some manner of severe risk late Thursday/D5, and most likely from parts of ND into northern MN, and in evening/overnight MCS form. Future model trends will be monitored for a possible risk area. From Friday/D6 onward, predictability decreases with the motion of the aforementioned upper wave. However, large instability is likely to again build across the Mid MO/Upper MS Valleys, and at least sporadic severe storms cannot be ruled out from the northern High Plains eastward toward the Upper Great Lakes. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0324 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025 Valid 131200Z - 181200Z ...DISCUSSION... From Wednesday/D4 into Thursday/D5, a shortwave trough is forecast to move from the Pacific Northwest across MT and over the far northern Plains, with an upper speed max developing into southern SK and MB. In advance of this trough, a leading trough affecting the Great Lakes region will also lift northeastward, with height rises and a warming pattern across parts of the Plains and upper Midwest. The combination of increasing dewpoints and the upper trough glancing the region may result in some manner of severe risk late Thursday/D5, and most likely from parts of ND into northern MN, and in evening/overnight MCS form. Future model trends will be monitored for a possible risk area. From Friday/D6 onward, predictability decreases with the motion of the aforementioned upper wave. However, large instability is likely to again build across the Mid MO/Upper MS Valleys, and at least sporadic severe storms cannot be ruled out from the northern High Plains eastward toward the Upper Great Lakes. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0324 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025 Valid 131200Z - 181200Z ...DISCUSSION... From Wednesday/D4 into Thursday/D5, a shortwave trough is forecast to move from the Pacific Northwest across MT and over the far northern Plains, with an upper speed max developing into southern SK and MB. In advance of this trough, a leading trough affecting the Great Lakes region will also lift northeastward, with height rises and a warming pattern across parts of the Plains and upper Midwest. The combination of increasing dewpoints and the upper trough glancing the region may result in some manner of severe risk late Thursday/D5, and most likely from parts of ND into northern MN, and in evening/overnight MCS form. Future model trends will be monitored for a possible risk area. From Friday/D6 onward, predictability decreases with the motion of the aforementioned upper wave. However, large instability is likely to again build across the Mid MO/Upper MS Valleys, and at least sporadic severe storms cannot be ruled out from the northern High Plains eastward toward the Upper Great Lakes. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0324 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025 Valid 131200Z - 181200Z ...DISCUSSION... From Wednesday/D4 into Thursday/D5, a shortwave trough is forecast to move from the Pacific Northwest across MT and over the far northern Plains, with an upper speed max developing into southern SK and MB. In advance of this trough, a leading trough affecting the Great Lakes region will also lift northeastward, with height rises and a warming pattern across parts of the Plains and upper Midwest. The combination of increasing dewpoints and the upper trough glancing the region may result in some manner of severe risk late Thursday/D5, and most likely from parts of ND into northern MN, and in evening/overnight MCS form. Future model trends will be monitored for a possible risk area. From Friday/D6 onward, predictability decreases with the motion of the aforementioned upper wave. However, large instability is likely to again build across the Mid MO/Upper MS Valleys, and at least sporadic severe storms cannot be ruled out from the northern High Plains eastward toward the Upper Great Lakes. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0324 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025 Valid 131200Z - 181200Z ...DISCUSSION... From Wednesday/D4 into Thursday/D5, a shortwave trough is forecast to move from the Pacific Northwest across MT and over the far northern Plains, with an upper speed max developing into southern SK and MB. In advance of this trough, a leading trough affecting the Great Lakes region will also lift northeastward, with height rises and a warming pattern across parts of the Plains and upper Midwest. The combination of increasing dewpoints and the upper trough glancing the region may result in some manner of severe risk late Thursday/D5, and most likely from parts of ND into northern MN, and in evening/overnight MCS form. Future model trends will be monitored for a possible risk area. From Friday/D6 onward, predictability decreases with the motion of the aforementioned upper wave. However, large instability is likely to again build across the Mid MO/Upper MS Valleys, and at least sporadic severe storms cannot be ruled out from the northern High Plains eastward toward the Upper Great Lakes. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0324 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025 Valid 131200Z - 181200Z ...DISCUSSION... From Wednesday/D4 into Thursday/D5, a shortwave trough is forecast to move from the Pacific Northwest across MT and over the far northern Plains, with an upper speed max developing into southern SK and MB. In advance of this trough, a leading trough affecting the Great Lakes region will also lift northeastward, with height rises and a warming pattern across parts of the Plains and upper Midwest. The combination of increasing dewpoints and the upper trough glancing the region may result in some manner of severe risk late Thursday/D5, and most likely from parts of ND into northern MN, and in evening/overnight MCS form. Future model trends will be monitored for a possible risk area. From Friday/D6 onward, predictability decreases with the motion of the aforementioned upper wave. However, large instability is likely to again build across the Mid MO/Upper MS Valleys, and at least sporadic severe storms cannot be ruled out from the northern High Plains eastward toward the Upper Great Lakes. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0324 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025 Valid 131200Z - 181200Z ...DISCUSSION... From Wednesday/D4 into Thursday/D5, a shortwave trough is forecast to move from the Pacific Northwest across MT and over the far northern Plains, with an upper speed max developing into southern SK and MB. In advance of this trough, a leading trough affecting the Great Lakes region will also lift northeastward, with height rises and a warming pattern across parts of the Plains and upper Midwest. The combination of increasing dewpoints and the upper trough glancing the region may result in some manner of severe risk late Thursday/D5, and most likely from parts of ND into northern MN, and in evening/overnight MCS form. Future model trends will be monitored for a possible risk area. From Friday/D6 onward, predictability decreases with the motion of the aforementioned upper wave. However, large instability is likely to again build across the Mid MO/Upper MS Valleys, and at least sporadic severe storms cannot be ruled out from the northern High Plains eastward toward the Upper Great Lakes. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0324 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025 Valid 131200Z - 181200Z ...DISCUSSION... From Wednesday/D4 into Thursday/D5, a shortwave trough is forecast to move from the Pacific Northwest across MT and over the far northern Plains, with an upper speed max developing into southern SK and MB. In advance of this trough, a leading trough affecting the Great Lakes region will also lift northeastward, with height rises and a warming pattern across parts of the Plains and upper Midwest. The combination of increasing dewpoints and the upper trough glancing the region may result in some manner of severe risk late Thursday/D5, and most likely from parts of ND into northern MN, and in evening/overnight MCS form. Future model trends will be monitored for a possible risk area. From Friday/D6 onward, predictability decreases with the motion of the aforementioned upper wave. However, large instability is likely to again build across the Mid MO/Upper MS Valleys, and at least sporadic severe storms cannot be ruled out from the northern High Plains eastward toward the Upper Great Lakes. Read more

WW 0584 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0584 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0584 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0584 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more