Severe Storms

WW 0585 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0585 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

MD 1922 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN COLORADO INTO FAR NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO...WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES...AND EXTREME WESTERN KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1922 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1246 PM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025 Areas affected...portions of eastern Colorado into far northeast New Mexico...western Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles...and extreme western Kansas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 101746Z - 101845Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Scattered supercells are expected to gradually develop and intensify along the Front Range in the next few hours. Severe wind and hail will be the main threats, though a tornado cannot be ruled out. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance may eventually be needed. DISCUSSION...Diurnal heating is supporting boundary-layer destabilization on both sides of a west-to-east baroclinic boundary that was left behind by earlier storms. As surface temperatures continue to warm into the 80s F amid upper 40s/low 50s F dewpoints, overspread by 7-8 C/km low- and mid-level lapse rates, MLCAPE should exceed 2000 J/kg as MLCINH diminishes in the next few hours. Supercells will develop off of the immediate lee of the Rockies and advance across the Front Range given 40 kts of effective bulk shear. Severe wind and hail will be the main threats, though a tornado is also possible, especially if a supercell can become sustained and anchor to the baroclinic boundary. However, supercells may merge into an MCS near the KS border by later in the afternoon, where severe gusts will become the main threat. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance will eventually be needed when it becomes clearer when storms will both develop and intensify. ..Squitieri/Hart.. 08/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ... LAT...LON 39120531 40480504 40690440 40690317 40330273 38830193 37900185 37080190 36550221 36340261 36290325 36300397 36350441 36440476 36630495 36850499 37270505 38310514 39120531 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

No watches are valid as of Sun Aug 10 17:49:02 UTC 2025.

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1218 PM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA...EAST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO AND NORTHWESTERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms accompanied by at least some risk for severe wind and hail may impact parts of eastern New Mexico into the Texas South Plains, as well as parts of eastern North Dakota into northwestern Minnesota, late Monday afternoon and evening. ...Discussion... While the westerlies generally remain confined to the higher latitudes, one significant embedded short wave trough is forecast to continue digging southeast of the Canadian Prairies through the international border vicinity, to the west of the Great Lakes, during this period. It appears that this will be accompanied by one initial surge of cooler/drier boundary layer air across much of the Dakotas and portions of the Upper Midwest/adjacent Great Lakes region by late Monday night. Otherwise, weak mid-level troughing likely will linger across much of the remainder of the interior U.S., to the east of the Rockies, between large-scale mean ridging centered offshore of both the Pacific and Atlantic coasts. An associated weak surface frontal zone, still reinforced by convective outflow in some locations, is likely to linger across the Great Lakes through lower Missouri Valley and Texas South Plains into early Monday, before generally continuing to weaken through the period. Seasonably high boundary-layer moisture content probably will be maintained ahead of the stalled/slow moving remnant front, across much of the Southwest, as well as in a corridor along and to the north it. Some of this moisture across the lower/middle Missouri Valley may begin to advect northward ahead of the lead reinforcing cool intrusion late Monday into Monday night. ...Southern Great Plains into Great Lakes... The seasonably high boundary-layer moisture content, along/just north of the weakening front, may provide support for the development of moderate to locally higher CAPE with insolation Monday. As this occurs, it appears that a number of convectively generated or augmented perturbations within the generally weak southwesterly deep-layer mean flow could contribute to scattered thunderstorm development during and after peak heating. Some of this could pose a risk for localized potentially damaging wind gusts, but the coverage of any such activity still seems likely to remain rather sparse in nature. One possible exception may develop along a modifying segment of the boundary across parts of east central New Mexico into the Texas South Plains by late Monday afternoon or evening, beneath steeper mid-level lapse rates associated with the remnants of a plume of warm elevated mixed-layer air. There appears a general consensus within the various model output that a digging short wave impulse, within a weak northwesterly mid-level regime, may provide support for a relatively notable upscale growing/southeastward propagating thunderstorm cluster. Farther northeast, the NAM, perhaps more so than other model output, suggests that a notable MCV may emerge from Sunday night convection over the central Great Plains, before slowly migrating across the lower Missouri Valley toward the Great Lakes Monday through Monday night. It is possible that a perturbation of the strength suggested by the NAM could, at some point, support another notable evolving cluster with potential to produce strong wind gusts. At this point, however, the potential for this still seems low, with too much uncertainty to introduce 5 percent probabilities without unduly large false alarm area. ...Northern Great Plains... A moistening boundary-layer, aided by evapotranspiration and perhaps the onset of better low-level moisture return on strengthening southerly low-level flow, may contribute to moderate CAPE within a corridor of stronger pre-frontal surface heating by late afternoon. Coupled with strengthening deep-layer mean wind fields and shear, downstream of a digging 50+ kt 500 mb jet, it appears that the environment may become conducive to vigorous convective development capable of producing small to marginally severe hail and strong surface gusts. Potential for gusts approaching or exceeding severe limits appears highest during the late afternoon and early evening across parts of eastern North Dakota into northwestern Minnesota, where warm, unsaturated low-level thermodynamic profiles with steep lapse rates will aid downward momentum transfer via enhanced melting and evaporative cooling in downdrafts. ..Kerr.. 08/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1218 PM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA...EAST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO AND NORTHWESTERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms accompanied by at least some risk for severe wind and hail may impact parts of eastern New Mexico into the Texas South Plains, as well as parts of eastern North Dakota into northwestern Minnesota, late Monday afternoon and evening. ...Discussion... While the westerlies generally remain confined to the higher latitudes, one significant embedded short wave trough is forecast to continue digging southeast of the Canadian Prairies through the international border vicinity, to the west of the Great Lakes, during this period. It appears that this will be accompanied by one initial surge of cooler/drier boundary layer air across much of the Dakotas and portions of the Upper Midwest/adjacent Great Lakes region by late Monday night. Otherwise, weak mid-level troughing likely will linger across much of the remainder of the interior U.S., to the east of the Rockies, between large-scale mean ridging centered offshore of both the Pacific and Atlantic coasts. An associated weak surface frontal zone, still reinforced by convective outflow in some locations, is likely to linger across the Great Lakes through lower Missouri Valley and Texas South Plains into early Monday, before generally continuing to weaken through the period. Seasonably high boundary-layer moisture content probably will be maintained ahead of the stalled/slow moving remnant front, across much of the Southwest, as well as in a corridor along and to the north it. Some of this moisture across the lower/middle Missouri Valley may begin to advect northward ahead of the lead reinforcing cool intrusion late Monday into Monday night. ...Southern Great Plains into Great Lakes... The seasonably high boundary-layer moisture content, along/just north of the weakening front, may provide support for the development of moderate to locally higher CAPE with insolation Monday. As this occurs, it appears that a number of convectively generated or augmented perturbations within the generally weak southwesterly deep-layer mean flow could contribute to scattered thunderstorm development during and after peak heating. Some of this could pose a risk for localized potentially damaging wind gusts, but the coverage of any such activity still seems likely to remain rather sparse in nature. One possible exception may develop along a modifying segment of the boundary across parts of east central New Mexico into the Texas South Plains by late Monday afternoon or evening, beneath steeper mid-level lapse rates associated with the remnants of a plume of warm elevated mixed-layer air. There appears a general consensus within the various model output that a digging short wave impulse, within a weak northwesterly mid-level regime, may provide support for a relatively notable upscale growing/southeastward propagating thunderstorm cluster. Farther northeast, the NAM, perhaps more so than other model output, suggests that a notable MCV may emerge from Sunday night convection over the central Great Plains, before slowly migrating across the lower Missouri Valley toward the Great Lakes Monday through Monday night. It is possible that a perturbation of the strength suggested by the NAM could, at some point, support another notable evolving cluster with potential to produce strong wind gusts. At this point, however, the potential for this still seems low, with too much uncertainty to introduce 5 percent probabilities without unduly large false alarm area. ...Northern Great Plains... A moistening boundary-layer, aided by evapotranspiration and perhaps the onset of better low-level moisture return on strengthening southerly low-level flow, may contribute to moderate CAPE within a corridor of stronger pre-frontal surface heating by late afternoon. Coupled with strengthening deep-layer mean wind fields and shear, downstream of a digging 50+ kt 500 mb jet, it appears that the environment may become conducive to vigorous convective development capable of producing small to marginally severe hail and strong surface gusts. Potential for gusts approaching or exceeding severe limits appears highest during the late afternoon and early evening across parts of eastern North Dakota into northwestern Minnesota, where warm, unsaturated low-level thermodynamic profiles with steep lapse rates will aid downward momentum transfer via enhanced melting and evaporative cooling in downdrafts. ..Kerr.. 08/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1218 PM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA...EAST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO AND NORTHWESTERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms accompanied by at least some risk for severe wind and hail may impact parts of eastern New Mexico into the Texas South Plains, as well as parts of eastern North Dakota into northwestern Minnesota, late Monday afternoon and evening. ...Discussion... While the westerlies generally remain confined to the higher latitudes, one significant embedded short wave trough is forecast to continue digging southeast of the Canadian Prairies through the international border vicinity, to the west of the Great Lakes, during this period. It appears that this will be accompanied by one initial surge of cooler/drier boundary layer air across much of the Dakotas and portions of the Upper Midwest/adjacent Great Lakes region by late Monday night. Otherwise, weak mid-level troughing likely will linger across much of the remainder of the interior U.S., to the east of the Rockies, between large-scale mean ridging centered offshore of both the Pacific and Atlantic coasts. An associated weak surface frontal zone, still reinforced by convective outflow in some locations, is likely to linger across the Great Lakes through lower Missouri Valley and Texas South Plains into early Monday, before generally continuing to weaken through the period. Seasonably high boundary-layer moisture content probably will be maintained ahead of the stalled/slow moving remnant front, across much of the Southwest, as well as in a corridor along and to the north it. Some of this moisture across the lower/middle Missouri Valley may begin to advect northward ahead of the lead reinforcing cool intrusion late Monday into Monday night. ...Southern Great Plains into Great Lakes... The seasonably high boundary-layer moisture content, along/just north of the weakening front, may provide support for the development of moderate to locally higher CAPE with insolation Monday. As this occurs, it appears that a number of convectively generated or augmented perturbations within the generally weak southwesterly deep-layer mean flow could contribute to scattered thunderstorm development during and after peak heating. Some of this could pose a risk for localized potentially damaging wind gusts, but the coverage of any such activity still seems likely to remain rather sparse in nature. One possible exception may develop along a modifying segment of the boundary across parts of east central New Mexico into the Texas South Plains by late Monday afternoon or evening, beneath steeper mid-level lapse rates associated with the remnants of a plume of warm elevated mixed-layer air. There appears a general consensus within the various model output that a digging short wave impulse, within a weak northwesterly mid-level regime, may provide support for a relatively notable upscale growing/southeastward propagating thunderstorm cluster. Farther northeast, the NAM, perhaps more so than other model output, suggests that a notable MCV may emerge from Sunday night convection over the central Great Plains, before slowly migrating across the lower Missouri Valley toward the Great Lakes Monday through Monday night. It is possible that a perturbation of the strength suggested by the NAM could, at some point, support another notable evolving cluster with potential to produce strong wind gusts. At this point, however, the potential for this still seems low, with too much uncertainty to introduce 5 percent probabilities without unduly large false alarm area. ...Northern Great Plains... A moistening boundary-layer, aided by evapotranspiration and perhaps the onset of better low-level moisture return on strengthening southerly low-level flow, may contribute to moderate CAPE within a corridor of stronger pre-frontal surface heating by late afternoon. Coupled with strengthening deep-layer mean wind fields and shear, downstream of a digging 50+ kt 500 mb jet, it appears that the environment may become conducive to vigorous convective development capable of producing small to marginally severe hail and strong surface gusts. Potential for gusts approaching or exceeding severe limits appears highest during the late afternoon and early evening across parts of eastern North Dakota into northwestern Minnesota, where warm, unsaturated low-level thermodynamic profiles with steep lapse rates will aid downward momentum transfer via enhanced melting and evaporative cooling in downdrafts. ..Kerr.. 08/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1218 PM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA...EAST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO AND NORTHWESTERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms accompanied by at least some risk for severe wind and hail may impact parts of eastern New Mexico into the Texas South Plains, as well as parts of eastern North Dakota into northwestern Minnesota, late Monday afternoon and evening. ...Discussion... While the westerlies generally remain confined to the higher latitudes, one significant embedded short wave trough is forecast to continue digging southeast of the Canadian Prairies through the international border vicinity, to the west of the Great Lakes, during this period. It appears that this will be accompanied by one initial surge of cooler/drier boundary layer air across much of the Dakotas and portions of the Upper Midwest/adjacent Great Lakes region by late Monday night. Otherwise, weak mid-level troughing likely will linger across much of the remainder of the interior U.S., to the east of the Rockies, between large-scale mean ridging centered offshore of both the Pacific and Atlantic coasts. An associated weak surface frontal zone, still reinforced by convective outflow in some locations, is likely to linger across the Great Lakes through lower Missouri Valley and Texas South Plains into early Monday, before generally continuing to weaken through the period. Seasonably high boundary-layer moisture content probably will be maintained ahead of the stalled/slow moving remnant front, across much of the Southwest, as well as in a corridor along and to the north it. Some of this moisture across the lower/middle Missouri Valley may begin to advect northward ahead of the lead reinforcing cool intrusion late Monday into Monday night. ...Southern Great Plains into Great Lakes... The seasonably high boundary-layer moisture content, along/just north of the weakening front, may provide support for the development of moderate to locally higher CAPE with insolation Monday. As this occurs, it appears that a number of convectively generated or augmented perturbations within the generally weak southwesterly deep-layer mean flow could contribute to scattered thunderstorm development during and after peak heating. Some of this could pose a risk for localized potentially damaging wind gusts, but the coverage of any such activity still seems likely to remain rather sparse in nature. One possible exception may develop along a modifying segment of the boundary across parts of east central New Mexico into the Texas South Plains by late Monday afternoon or evening, beneath steeper mid-level lapse rates associated with the remnants of a plume of warm elevated mixed-layer air. There appears a general consensus within the various model output that a digging short wave impulse, within a weak northwesterly mid-level regime, may provide support for a relatively notable upscale growing/southeastward propagating thunderstorm cluster. Farther northeast, the NAM, perhaps more so than other model output, suggests that a notable MCV may emerge from Sunday night convection over the central Great Plains, before slowly migrating across the lower Missouri Valley toward the Great Lakes Monday through Monday night. It is possible that a perturbation of the strength suggested by the NAM could, at some point, support another notable evolving cluster with potential to produce strong wind gusts. At this point, however, the potential for this still seems low, with too much uncertainty to introduce 5 percent probabilities without unduly large false alarm area. ...Northern Great Plains... A moistening boundary-layer, aided by evapotranspiration and perhaps the onset of better low-level moisture return on strengthening southerly low-level flow, may contribute to moderate CAPE within a corridor of stronger pre-frontal surface heating by late afternoon. Coupled with strengthening deep-layer mean wind fields and shear, downstream of a digging 50+ kt 500 mb jet, it appears that the environment may become conducive to vigorous convective development capable of producing small to marginally severe hail and strong surface gusts. Potential for gusts approaching or exceeding severe limits appears highest during the late afternoon and early evening across parts of eastern North Dakota into northwestern Minnesota, where warm, unsaturated low-level thermodynamic profiles with steep lapse rates will aid downward momentum transfer via enhanced melting and evaporative cooling in downdrafts. ..Kerr.. 08/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1218 PM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA...EAST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO AND NORTHWESTERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms accompanied by at least some risk for severe wind and hail may impact parts of eastern New Mexico into the Texas South Plains, as well as parts of eastern North Dakota into northwestern Minnesota, late Monday afternoon and evening. ...Discussion... While the westerlies generally remain confined to the higher latitudes, one significant embedded short wave trough is forecast to continue digging southeast of the Canadian Prairies through the international border vicinity, to the west of the Great Lakes, during this period. It appears that this will be accompanied by one initial surge of cooler/drier boundary layer air across much of the Dakotas and portions of the Upper Midwest/adjacent Great Lakes region by late Monday night. Otherwise, weak mid-level troughing likely will linger across much of the remainder of the interior U.S., to the east of the Rockies, between large-scale mean ridging centered offshore of both the Pacific and Atlantic coasts. An associated weak surface frontal zone, still reinforced by convective outflow in some locations, is likely to linger across the Great Lakes through lower Missouri Valley and Texas South Plains into early Monday, before generally continuing to weaken through the period. Seasonably high boundary-layer moisture content probably will be maintained ahead of the stalled/slow moving remnant front, across much of the Southwest, as well as in a corridor along and to the north it. Some of this moisture across the lower/middle Missouri Valley may begin to advect northward ahead of the lead reinforcing cool intrusion late Monday into Monday night. ...Southern Great Plains into Great Lakes... The seasonably high boundary-layer moisture content, along/just north of the weakening front, may provide support for the development of moderate to locally higher CAPE with insolation Monday. As this occurs, it appears that a number of convectively generated or augmented perturbations within the generally weak southwesterly deep-layer mean flow could contribute to scattered thunderstorm development during and after peak heating. Some of this could pose a risk for localized potentially damaging wind gusts, but the coverage of any such activity still seems likely to remain rather sparse in nature. One possible exception may develop along a modifying segment of the boundary across parts of east central New Mexico into the Texas South Plains by late Monday afternoon or evening, beneath steeper mid-level lapse rates associated with the remnants of a plume of warm elevated mixed-layer air. There appears a general consensus within the various model output that a digging short wave impulse, within a weak northwesterly mid-level regime, may provide support for a relatively notable upscale growing/southeastward propagating thunderstorm cluster. Farther northeast, the NAM, perhaps more so than other model output, suggests that a notable MCV may emerge from Sunday night convection over the central Great Plains, before slowly migrating across the lower Missouri Valley toward the Great Lakes Monday through Monday night. It is possible that a perturbation of the strength suggested by the NAM could, at some point, support another notable evolving cluster with potential to produce strong wind gusts. At this point, however, the potential for this still seems low, with too much uncertainty to introduce 5 percent probabilities without unduly large false alarm area. ...Northern Great Plains... A moistening boundary-layer, aided by evapotranspiration and perhaps the onset of better low-level moisture return on strengthening southerly low-level flow, may contribute to moderate CAPE within a corridor of stronger pre-frontal surface heating by late afternoon. Coupled with strengthening deep-layer mean wind fields and shear, downstream of a digging 50+ kt 500 mb jet, it appears that the environment may become conducive to vigorous convective development capable of producing small to marginally severe hail and strong surface gusts. Potential for gusts approaching or exceeding severe limits appears highest during the late afternoon and early evening across parts of eastern North Dakota into northwestern Minnesota, where warm, unsaturated low-level thermodynamic profiles with steep lapse rates will aid downward momentum transfer via enhanced melting and evaporative cooling in downdrafts. ..Kerr.. 08/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1218 PM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA...EAST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO AND NORTHWESTERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms accompanied by at least some risk for severe wind and hail may impact parts of eastern New Mexico into the Texas South Plains, as well as parts of eastern North Dakota into northwestern Minnesota, late Monday afternoon and evening. ...Discussion... While the westerlies generally remain confined to the higher latitudes, one significant embedded short wave trough is forecast to continue digging southeast of the Canadian Prairies through the international border vicinity, to the west of the Great Lakes, during this period. It appears that this will be accompanied by one initial surge of cooler/drier boundary layer air across much of the Dakotas and portions of the Upper Midwest/adjacent Great Lakes region by late Monday night. Otherwise, weak mid-level troughing likely will linger across much of the remainder of the interior U.S., to the east of the Rockies, between large-scale mean ridging centered offshore of both the Pacific and Atlantic coasts. An associated weak surface frontal zone, still reinforced by convective outflow in some locations, is likely to linger across the Great Lakes through lower Missouri Valley and Texas South Plains into early Monday, before generally continuing to weaken through the period. Seasonably high boundary-layer moisture content probably will be maintained ahead of the stalled/slow moving remnant front, across much of the Southwest, as well as in a corridor along and to the north it. Some of this moisture across the lower/middle Missouri Valley may begin to advect northward ahead of the lead reinforcing cool intrusion late Monday into Monday night. ...Southern Great Plains into Great Lakes... The seasonably high boundary-layer moisture content, along/just north of the weakening front, may provide support for the development of moderate to locally higher CAPE with insolation Monday. As this occurs, it appears that a number of convectively generated or augmented perturbations within the generally weak southwesterly deep-layer mean flow could contribute to scattered thunderstorm development during and after peak heating. Some of this could pose a risk for localized potentially damaging wind gusts, but the coverage of any such activity still seems likely to remain rather sparse in nature. One possible exception may develop along a modifying segment of the boundary across parts of east central New Mexico into the Texas South Plains by late Monday afternoon or evening, beneath steeper mid-level lapse rates associated with the remnants of a plume of warm elevated mixed-layer air. There appears a general consensus within the various model output that a digging short wave impulse, within a weak northwesterly mid-level regime, may provide support for a relatively notable upscale growing/southeastward propagating thunderstorm cluster. Farther northeast, the NAM, perhaps more so than other model output, suggests that a notable MCV may emerge from Sunday night convection over the central Great Plains, before slowly migrating across the lower Missouri Valley toward the Great Lakes Monday through Monday night. It is possible that a perturbation of the strength suggested by the NAM could, at some point, support another notable evolving cluster with potential to produce strong wind gusts. At this point, however, the potential for this still seems low, with too much uncertainty to introduce 5 percent probabilities without unduly large false alarm area. ...Northern Great Plains... A moistening boundary-layer, aided by evapotranspiration and perhaps the onset of better low-level moisture return on strengthening southerly low-level flow, may contribute to moderate CAPE within a corridor of stronger pre-frontal surface heating by late afternoon. Coupled with strengthening deep-layer mean wind fields and shear, downstream of a digging 50+ kt 500 mb jet, it appears that the environment may become conducive to vigorous convective development capable of producing small to marginally severe hail and strong surface gusts. Potential for gusts approaching or exceeding severe limits appears highest during the late afternoon and early evening across parts of eastern North Dakota into northwestern Minnesota, where warm, unsaturated low-level thermodynamic profiles with steep lapse rates will aid downward momentum transfer via enhanced melting and evaporative cooling in downdrafts. ..Kerr.. 08/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1218 PM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA...EAST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO AND NORTHWESTERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms accompanied by at least some risk for severe wind and hail may impact parts of eastern New Mexico into the Texas South Plains, as well as parts of eastern North Dakota into northwestern Minnesota, late Monday afternoon and evening. ...Discussion... While the westerlies generally remain confined to the higher latitudes, one significant embedded short wave trough is forecast to continue digging southeast of the Canadian Prairies through the international border vicinity, to the west of the Great Lakes, during this period. It appears that this will be accompanied by one initial surge of cooler/drier boundary layer air across much of the Dakotas and portions of the Upper Midwest/adjacent Great Lakes region by late Monday night. Otherwise, weak mid-level troughing likely will linger across much of the remainder of the interior U.S., to the east of the Rockies, between large-scale mean ridging centered offshore of both the Pacific and Atlantic coasts. An associated weak surface frontal zone, still reinforced by convective outflow in some locations, is likely to linger across the Great Lakes through lower Missouri Valley and Texas South Plains into early Monday, before generally continuing to weaken through the period. Seasonably high boundary-layer moisture content probably will be maintained ahead of the stalled/slow moving remnant front, across much of the Southwest, as well as in a corridor along and to the north it. Some of this moisture across the lower/middle Missouri Valley may begin to advect northward ahead of the lead reinforcing cool intrusion late Monday into Monday night. ...Southern Great Plains into Great Lakes... The seasonably high boundary-layer moisture content, along/just north of the weakening front, may provide support for the development of moderate to locally higher CAPE with insolation Monday. As this occurs, it appears that a number of convectively generated or augmented perturbations within the generally weak southwesterly deep-layer mean flow could contribute to scattered thunderstorm development during and after peak heating. Some of this could pose a risk for localized potentially damaging wind gusts, but the coverage of any such activity still seems likely to remain rather sparse in nature. One possible exception may develop along a modifying segment of the boundary across parts of east central New Mexico into the Texas South Plains by late Monday afternoon or evening, beneath steeper mid-level lapse rates associated with the remnants of a plume of warm elevated mixed-layer air. There appears a general consensus within the various model output that a digging short wave impulse, within a weak northwesterly mid-level regime, may provide support for a relatively notable upscale growing/southeastward propagating thunderstorm cluster. Farther northeast, the NAM, perhaps more so than other model output, suggests that a notable MCV may emerge from Sunday night convection over the central Great Plains, before slowly migrating across the lower Missouri Valley toward the Great Lakes Monday through Monday night. It is possible that a perturbation of the strength suggested by the NAM could, at some point, support another notable evolving cluster with potential to produce strong wind gusts. At this point, however, the potential for this still seems low, with too much uncertainty to introduce 5 percent probabilities without unduly large false alarm area. ...Northern Great Plains... A moistening boundary-layer, aided by evapotranspiration and perhaps the onset of better low-level moisture return on strengthening southerly low-level flow, may contribute to moderate CAPE within a corridor of stronger pre-frontal surface heating by late afternoon. Coupled with strengthening deep-layer mean wind fields and shear, downstream of a digging 50+ kt 500 mb jet, it appears that the environment may become conducive to vigorous convective development capable of producing small to marginally severe hail and strong surface gusts. Potential for gusts approaching or exceeding severe limits appears highest during the late afternoon and early evening across parts of eastern North Dakota into northwestern Minnesota, where warm, unsaturated low-level thermodynamic profiles with steep lapse rates will aid downward momentum transfer via enhanced melting and evaporative cooling in downdrafts. ..Kerr.. 08/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1218 PM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA...EAST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO AND NORTHWESTERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms accompanied by at least some risk for severe wind and hail may impact parts of eastern New Mexico into the Texas South Plains, as well as parts of eastern North Dakota into northwestern Minnesota, late Monday afternoon and evening. ...Discussion... While the westerlies generally remain confined to the higher latitudes, one significant embedded short wave trough is forecast to continue digging southeast of the Canadian Prairies through the international border vicinity, to the west of the Great Lakes, during this period. It appears that this will be accompanied by one initial surge of cooler/drier boundary layer air across much of the Dakotas and portions of the Upper Midwest/adjacent Great Lakes region by late Monday night. Otherwise, weak mid-level troughing likely will linger across much of the remainder of the interior U.S., to the east of the Rockies, between large-scale mean ridging centered offshore of both the Pacific and Atlantic coasts. An associated weak surface frontal zone, still reinforced by convective outflow in some locations, is likely to linger across the Great Lakes through lower Missouri Valley and Texas South Plains into early Monday, before generally continuing to weaken through the period. Seasonably high boundary-layer moisture content probably will be maintained ahead of the stalled/slow moving remnant front, across much of the Southwest, as well as in a corridor along and to the north it. Some of this moisture across the lower/middle Missouri Valley may begin to advect northward ahead of the lead reinforcing cool intrusion late Monday into Monday night. ...Southern Great Plains into Great Lakes... The seasonably high boundary-layer moisture content, along/just north of the weakening front, may provide support for the development of moderate to locally higher CAPE with insolation Monday. As this occurs, it appears that a number of convectively generated or augmented perturbations within the generally weak southwesterly deep-layer mean flow could contribute to scattered thunderstorm development during and after peak heating. Some of this could pose a risk for localized potentially damaging wind gusts, but the coverage of any such activity still seems likely to remain rather sparse in nature. One possible exception may develop along a modifying segment of the boundary across parts of east central New Mexico into the Texas South Plains by late Monday afternoon or evening, beneath steeper mid-level lapse rates associated with the remnants of a plume of warm elevated mixed-layer air. There appears a general consensus within the various model output that a digging short wave impulse, within a weak northwesterly mid-level regime, may provide support for a relatively notable upscale growing/southeastward propagating thunderstorm cluster. Farther northeast, the NAM, perhaps more so than other model output, suggests that a notable MCV may emerge from Sunday night convection over the central Great Plains, before slowly migrating across the lower Missouri Valley toward the Great Lakes Monday through Monday night. It is possible that a perturbation of the strength suggested by the NAM could, at some point, support another notable evolving cluster with potential to produce strong wind gusts. At this point, however, the potential for this still seems low, with too much uncertainty to introduce 5 percent probabilities without unduly large false alarm area. ...Northern Great Plains... A moistening boundary-layer, aided by evapotranspiration and perhaps the onset of better low-level moisture return on strengthening southerly low-level flow, may contribute to moderate CAPE within a corridor of stronger pre-frontal surface heating by late afternoon. Coupled with strengthening deep-layer mean wind fields and shear, downstream of a digging 50+ kt 500 mb jet, it appears that the environment may become conducive to vigorous convective development capable of producing small to marginally severe hail and strong surface gusts. Potential for gusts approaching or exceeding severe limits appears highest during the late afternoon and early evening across parts of eastern North Dakota into northwestern Minnesota, where warm, unsaturated low-level thermodynamic profiles with steep lapse rates will aid downward momentum transfer via enhanced melting and evaporative cooling in downdrafts. ..Kerr.. 08/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1218 PM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA...EAST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO AND NORTHWESTERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms accompanied by at least some risk for severe wind and hail may impact parts of eastern New Mexico into the Texas South Plains, as well as parts of eastern North Dakota into northwestern Minnesota, late Monday afternoon and evening. ...Discussion... While the westerlies generally remain confined to the higher latitudes, one significant embedded short wave trough is forecast to continue digging southeast of the Canadian Prairies through the international border vicinity, to the west of the Great Lakes, during this period. It appears that this will be accompanied by one initial surge of cooler/drier boundary layer air across much of the Dakotas and portions of the Upper Midwest/adjacent Great Lakes region by late Monday night. Otherwise, weak mid-level troughing likely will linger across much of the remainder of the interior U.S., to the east of the Rockies, between large-scale mean ridging centered offshore of both the Pacific and Atlantic coasts. An associated weak surface frontal zone, still reinforced by convective outflow in some locations, is likely to linger across the Great Lakes through lower Missouri Valley and Texas South Plains into early Monday, before generally continuing to weaken through the period. Seasonably high boundary-layer moisture content probably will be maintained ahead of the stalled/slow moving remnant front, across much of the Southwest, as well as in a corridor along and to the north it. Some of this moisture across the lower/middle Missouri Valley may begin to advect northward ahead of the lead reinforcing cool intrusion late Monday into Monday night. ...Southern Great Plains into Great Lakes... The seasonably high boundary-layer moisture content, along/just north of the weakening front, may provide support for the development of moderate to locally higher CAPE with insolation Monday. As this occurs, it appears that a number of convectively generated or augmented perturbations within the generally weak southwesterly deep-layer mean flow could contribute to scattered thunderstorm development during and after peak heating. Some of this could pose a risk for localized potentially damaging wind gusts, but the coverage of any such activity still seems likely to remain rather sparse in nature. One possible exception may develop along a modifying segment of the boundary across parts of east central New Mexico into the Texas South Plains by late Monday afternoon or evening, beneath steeper mid-level lapse rates associated with the remnants of a plume of warm elevated mixed-layer air. There appears a general consensus within the various model output that a digging short wave impulse, within a weak northwesterly mid-level regime, may provide support for a relatively notable upscale growing/southeastward propagating thunderstorm cluster. Farther northeast, the NAM, perhaps more so than other model output, suggests that a notable MCV may emerge from Sunday night convection over the central Great Plains, before slowly migrating across the lower Missouri Valley toward the Great Lakes Monday through Monday night. It is possible that a perturbation of the strength suggested by the NAM could, at some point, support another notable evolving cluster with potential to produce strong wind gusts. At this point, however, the potential for this still seems low, with too much uncertainty to introduce 5 percent probabilities without unduly large false alarm area. ...Northern Great Plains... A moistening boundary-layer, aided by evapotranspiration and perhaps the onset of better low-level moisture return on strengthening southerly low-level flow, may contribute to moderate CAPE within a corridor of stronger pre-frontal surface heating by late afternoon. Coupled with strengthening deep-layer mean wind fields and shear, downstream of a digging 50+ kt 500 mb jet, it appears that the environment may become conducive to vigorous convective development capable of producing small to marginally severe hail and strong surface gusts. Potential for gusts approaching or exceeding severe limits appears highest during the late afternoon and early evening across parts of eastern North Dakota into northwestern Minnesota, where warm, unsaturated low-level thermodynamic profiles with steep lapse rates will aid downward momentum transfer via enhanced melting and evaporative cooling in downdrafts. ..Kerr.. 08/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1218 PM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA...EAST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO AND NORTHWESTERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms accompanied by at least some risk for severe wind and hail may impact parts of eastern New Mexico into the Texas South Plains, as well as parts of eastern North Dakota into northwestern Minnesota, late Monday afternoon and evening. ...Discussion... While the westerlies generally remain confined to the higher latitudes, one significant embedded short wave trough is forecast to continue digging southeast of the Canadian Prairies through the international border vicinity, to the west of the Great Lakes, during this period. It appears that this will be accompanied by one initial surge of cooler/drier boundary layer air across much of the Dakotas and portions of the Upper Midwest/adjacent Great Lakes region by late Monday night. Otherwise, weak mid-level troughing likely will linger across much of the remainder of the interior U.S., to the east of the Rockies, between large-scale mean ridging centered offshore of both the Pacific and Atlantic coasts. An associated weak surface frontal zone, still reinforced by convective outflow in some locations, is likely to linger across the Great Lakes through lower Missouri Valley and Texas South Plains into early Monday, before generally continuing to weaken through the period. Seasonably high boundary-layer moisture content probably will be maintained ahead of the stalled/slow moving remnant front, across much of the Southwest, as well as in a corridor along and to the north it. Some of this moisture across the lower/middle Missouri Valley may begin to advect northward ahead of the lead reinforcing cool intrusion late Monday into Monday night. ...Southern Great Plains into Great Lakes... The seasonably high boundary-layer moisture content, along/just north of the weakening front, may provide support for the development of moderate to locally higher CAPE with insolation Monday. As this occurs, it appears that a number of convectively generated or augmented perturbations within the generally weak southwesterly deep-layer mean flow could contribute to scattered thunderstorm development during and after peak heating. Some of this could pose a risk for localized potentially damaging wind gusts, but the coverage of any such activity still seems likely to remain rather sparse in nature. One possible exception may develop along a modifying segment of the boundary across parts of east central New Mexico into the Texas South Plains by late Monday afternoon or evening, beneath steeper mid-level lapse rates associated with the remnants of a plume of warm elevated mixed-layer air. There appears a general consensus within the various model output that a digging short wave impulse, within a weak northwesterly mid-level regime, may provide support for a relatively notable upscale growing/southeastward propagating thunderstorm cluster. Farther northeast, the NAM, perhaps more so than other model output, suggests that a notable MCV may emerge from Sunday night convection over the central Great Plains, before slowly migrating across the lower Missouri Valley toward the Great Lakes Monday through Monday night. It is possible that a perturbation of the strength suggested by the NAM could, at some point, support another notable evolving cluster with potential to produce strong wind gusts. At this point, however, the potential for this still seems low, with too much uncertainty to introduce 5 percent probabilities without unduly large false alarm area. ...Northern Great Plains... A moistening boundary-layer, aided by evapotranspiration and perhaps the onset of better low-level moisture return on strengthening southerly low-level flow, may contribute to moderate CAPE within a corridor of stronger pre-frontal surface heating by late afternoon. Coupled with strengthening deep-layer mean wind fields and shear, downstream of a digging 50+ kt 500 mb jet, it appears that the environment may become conducive to vigorous convective development capable of producing small to marginally severe hail and strong surface gusts. Potential for gusts approaching or exceeding severe limits appears highest during the late afternoon and early evening across parts of eastern North Dakota into northwestern Minnesota, where warm, unsaturated low-level thermodynamic profiles with steep lapse rates will aid downward momentum transfer via enhanced melting and evaporative cooling in downdrafts. ..Kerr.. 08/10/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1144 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025 Valid 101700Z - 111200Z Minor adjustments were made to the Isolated Dry Thunderstorm chances across Arizona in alignment with recent trends in hi-res guidance. Otherwise, the Elevated area remains unchanged. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 08/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0103 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will continue for today across parts of the Four Corners/Southwest region. Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts a pronounced mid-level perturbation traversing UT/WY as of 06 UTC. This feature is expected to reach AZ/NM by peak heating this afternoon, which will induce west/northwesterly mid-level flow across the greater Four Corners region. Although low-level pressure gradient winds will likely remain somewhat modest (generally around 15 mph), deep mixing will promote downward mixing of 20-30 mph gusts across far southern UT into northern AZ and northwest NM. Dry conditions will persist and support another day of RH minimums in the single digits and elevated fire weather conditions. More aggressive solutions, such as the HRRR and RAP that have a tendency to over-mix, hint that elevated conditions may extend as far north as eastern UT/western CO, but general ensemble consensus is meager. Therefore opted to maintain highlights mainly over AZ/NM where confidence in sustained elevated conditions is higher. In addition to supporting elevated fire weather conditions, the mid-level perturbation will also promote isolated to scattered thunderstorm development across the greater Southwest and southern High Plains region. Convection developing along the Mogollon Rim will likely develop on the fringe of the deeper monsoonal moisture where PWATs should remain near 0.75 inches and LCLs will likely reach 3-4 km. These thermodynamic conditions were observed yesterday afternoon/evening (e.g. the 00z ABQ sounding) across the region and yielded isolated dry lightning strikes. As such, a similar risk for dry lightning should manifest this afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1144 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025 Valid 101700Z - 111200Z Minor adjustments were made to the Isolated Dry Thunderstorm chances across Arizona in alignment with recent trends in hi-res guidance. Otherwise, the Elevated area remains unchanged. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 08/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0103 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will continue for today across parts of the Four Corners/Southwest region. Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts a pronounced mid-level perturbation traversing UT/WY as of 06 UTC. This feature is expected to reach AZ/NM by peak heating this afternoon, which will induce west/northwesterly mid-level flow across the greater Four Corners region. Although low-level pressure gradient winds will likely remain somewhat modest (generally around 15 mph), deep mixing will promote downward mixing of 20-30 mph gusts across far southern UT into northern AZ and northwest NM. Dry conditions will persist and support another day of RH minimums in the single digits and elevated fire weather conditions. More aggressive solutions, such as the HRRR and RAP that have a tendency to over-mix, hint that elevated conditions may extend as far north as eastern UT/western CO, but general ensemble consensus is meager. Therefore opted to maintain highlights mainly over AZ/NM where confidence in sustained elevated conditions is higher. In addition to supporting elevated fire weather conditions, the mid-level perturbation will also promote isolated to scattered thunderstorm development across the greater Southwest and southern High Plains region. Convection developing along the Mogollon Rim will likely develop on the fringe of the deeper monsoonal moisture where PWATs should remain near 0.75 inches and LCLs will likely reach 3-4 km. These thermodynamic conditions were observed yesterday afternoon/evening (e.g. the 00z ABQ sounding) across the region and yielded isolated dry lightning strikes. As such, a similar risk for dry lightning should manifest this afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1144 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025 Valid 101700Z - 111200Z Minor adjustments were made to the Isolated Dry Thunderstorm chances across Arizona in alignment with recent trends in hi-res guidance. Otherwise, the Elevated area remains unchanged. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 08/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0103 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will continue for today across parts of the Four Corners/Southwest region. Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts a pronounced mid-level perturbation traversing UT/WY as of 06 UTC. This feature is expected to reach AZ/NM by peak heating this afternoon, which will induce west/northwesterly mid-level flow across the greater Four Corners region. Although low-level pressure gradient winds will likely remain somewhat modest (generally around 15 mph), deep mixing will promote downward mixing of 20-30 mph gusts across far southern UT into northern AZ and northwest NM. Dry conditions will persist and support another day of RH minimums in the single digits and elevated fire weather conditions. More aggressive solutions, such as the HRRR and RAP that have a tendency to over-mix, hint that elevated conditions may extend as far north as eastern UT/western CO, but general ensemble consensus is meager. Therefore opted to maintain highlights mainly over AZ/NM where confidence in sustained elevated conditions is higher. In addition to supporting elevated fire weather conditions, the mid-level perturbation will also promote isolated to scattered thunderstorm development across the greater Southwest and southern High Plains region. Convection developing along the Mogollon Rim will likely develop on the fringe of the deeper monsoonal moisture where PWATs should remain near 0.75 inches and LCLs will likely reach 3-4 km. These thermodynamic conditions were observed yesterday afternoon/evening (e.g. the 00z ABQ sounding) across the region and yielded isolated dry lightning strikes. As such, a similar risk for dry lightning should manifest this afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1144 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025 Valid 101700Z - 111200Z Minor adjustments were made to the Isolated Dry Thunderstorm chances across Arizona in alignment with recent trends in hi-res guidance. Otherwise, the Elevated area remains unchanged. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 08/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0103 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will continue for today across parts of the Four Corners/Southwest region. Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts a pronounced mid-level perturbation traversing UT/WY as of 06 UTC. This feature is expected to reach AZ/NM by peak heating this afternoon, which will induce west/northwesterly mid-level flow across the greater Four Corners region. Although low-level pressure gradient winds will likely remain somewhat modest (generally around 15 mph), deep mixing will promote downward mixing of 20-30 mph gusts across far southern UT into northern AZ and northwest NM. Dry conditions will persist and support another day of RH minimums in the single digits and elevated fire weather conditions. More aggressive solutions, such as the HRRR and RAP that have a tendency to over-mix, hint that elevated conditions may extend as far north as eastern UT/western CO, but general ensemble consensus is meager. Therefore opted to maintain highlights mainly over AZ/NM where confidence in sustained elevated conditions is higher. In addition to supporting elevated fire weather conditions, the mid-level perturbation will also promote isolated to scattered thunderstorm development across the greater Southwest and southern High Plains region. Convection developing along the Mogollon Rim will likely develop on the fringe of the deeper monsoonal moisture where PWATs should remain near 0.75 inches and LCLs will likely reach 3-4 km. These thermodynamic conditions were observed yesterday afternoon/evening (e.g. the 00z ABQ sounding) across the region and yielded isolated dry lightning strikes. As such, a similar risk for dry lightning should manifest this afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1144 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025 Valid 101700Z - 111200Z Minor adjustments were made to the Isolated Dry Thunderstorm chances across Arizona in alignment with recent trends in hi-res guidance. Otherwise, the Elevated area remains unchanged. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 08/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0103 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will continue for today across parts of the Four Corners/Southwest region. Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts a pronounced mid-level perturbation traversing UT/WY as of 06 UTC. This feature is expected to reach AZ/NM by peak heating this afternoon, which will induce west/northwesterly mid-level flow across the greater Four Corners region. Although low-level pressure gradient winds will likely remain somewhat modest (generally around 15 mph), deep mixing will promote downward mixing of 20-30 mph gusts across far southern UT into northern AZ and northwest NM. Dry conditions will persist and support another day of RH minimums in the single digits and elevated fire weather conditions. More aggressive solutions, such as the HRRR and RAP that have a tendency to over-mix, hint that elevated conditions may extend as far north as eastern UT/western CO, but general ensemble consensus is meager. Therefore opted to maintain highlights mainly over AZ/NM where confidence in sustained elevated conditions is higher. In addition to supporting elevated fire weather conditions, the mid-level perturbation will also promote isolated to scattered thunderstorm development across the greater Southwest and southern High Plains region. Convection developing along the Mogollon Rim will likely develop on the fringe of the deeper monsoonal moisture where PWATs should remain near 0.75 inches and LCLs will likely reach 3-4 km. These thermodynamic conditions were observed yesterday afternoon/evening (e.g. the 00z ABQ sounding) across the region and yielded isolated dry lightning strikes. As such, a similar risk for dry lightning should manifest this afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1144 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025 Valid 101700Z - 111200Z Minor adjustments were made to the Isolated Dry Thunderstorm chances across Arizona in alignment with recent trends in hi-res guidance. Otherwise, the Elevated area remains unchanged. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 08/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0103 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will continue for today across parts of the Four Corners/Southwest region. Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts a pronounced mid-level perturbation traversing UT/WY as of 06 UTC. This feature is expected to reach AZ/NM by peak heating this afternoon, which will induce west/northwesterly mid-level flow across the greater Four Corners region. Although low-level pressure gradient winds will likely remain somewhat modest (generally around 15 mph), deep mixing will promote downward mixing of 20-30 mph gusts across far southern UT into northern AZ and northwest NM. Dry conditions will persist and support another day of RH minimums in the single digits and elevated fire weather conditions. More aggressive solutions, such as the HRRR and RAP that have a tendency to over-mix, hint that elevated conditions may extend as far north as eastern UT/western CO, but general ensemble consensus is meager. Therefore opted to maintain highlights mainly over AZ/NM where confidence in sustained elevated conditions is higher. In addition to supporting elevated fire weather conditions, the mid-level perturbation will also promote isolated to scattered thunderstorm development across the greater Southwest and southern High Plains region. Convection developing along the Mogollon Rim will likely develop on the fringe of the deeper monsoonal moisture where PWATs should remain near 0.75 inches and LCLs will likely reach 3-4 km. These thermodynamic conditions were observed yesterday afternoon/evening (e.g. the 00z ABQ sounding) across the region and yielded isolated dry lightning strikes. As such, a similar risk for dry lightning should manifest this afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1144 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025 Valid 101700Z - 111200Z Minor adjustments were made to the Isolated Dry Thunderstorm chances across Arizona in alignment with recent trends in hi-res guidance. Otherwise, the Elevated area remains unchanged. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 08/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0103 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will continue for today across parts of the Four Corners/Southwest region. Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts a pronounced mid-level perturbation traversing UT/WY as of 06 UTC. This feature is expected to reach AZ/NM by peak heating this afternoon, which will induce west/northwesterly mid-level flow across the greater Four Corners region. Although low-level pressure gradient winds will likely remain somewhat modest (generally around 15 mph), deep mixing will promote downward mixing of 20-30 mph gusts across far southern UT into northern AZ and northwest NM. Dry conditions will persist and support another day of RH minimums in the single digits and elevated fire weather conditions. More aggressive solutions, such as the HRRR and RAP that have a tendency to over-mix, hint that elevated conditions may extend as far north as eastern UT/western CO, but general ensemble consensus is meager. Therefore opted to maintain highlights mainly over AZ/NM where confidence in sustained elevated conditions is higher. In addition to supporting elevated fire weather conditions, the mid-level perturbation will also promote isolated to scattered thunderstorm development across the greater Southwest and southern High Plains region. Convection developing along the Mogollon Rim will likely develop on the fringe of the deeper monsoonal moisture where PWATs should remain near 0.75 inches and LCLs will likely reach 3-4 km. These thermodynamic conditions were observed yesterday afternoon/evening (e.g. the 00z ABQ sounding) across the region and yielded isolated dry lightning strikes. As such, a similar risk for dry lightning should manifest this afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more