Severe Storms

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0104 AM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...Synopsis... Somewhat limited fire weather concerns are expected today across the Southwest/Four Corners region. Very dry conditions will persist across the eastern Great Basin/Four Corners with widespread 5-15% RH minimums expected this afternoon. However, low-level winds are expected to be somewhat weaker today compared to previous days as a surface high gradually builds across the Intermountain west. Sustained winds between 10-15 mph will likely be accompanied by 15-25 mph gusts by around peak heating when boundary-layer mixing will be maximized, but confidence in sustained elevated conditions remains too limited to warrant highlights. Instead, fire weather concerns will manifest as another day of dry thunderstorm potential along the Mogollon Rim. Lightning data and MRMS imagery from the past 24 hours shows a mixture of heavy precipitation cores (QPE values near 0.25 inch) as well as multiple dry lightning strikes. Additionally, a couple of small fire starts were noted over the past 24 hours due to lightning. Similar thermodynamic conditions will be in place this afternoon and will likely yield a similar mixture of wet and dry thunderstorms. Unlikely previous days, thunderstorm coverage may be more limited due to weaker synoptic-scale forcing for ascent. ..Moore.. 08/11/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0104 AM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...Synopsis... Somewhat limited fire weather concerns are expected today across the Southwest/Four Corners region. Very dry conditions will persist across the eastern Great Basin/Four Corners with widespread 5-15% RH minimums expected this afternoon. However, low-level winds are expected to be somewhat weaker today compared to previous days as a surface high gradually builds across the Intermountain west. Sustained winds between 10-15 mph will likely be accompanied by 15-25 mph gusts by around peak heating when boundary-layer mixing will be maximized, but confidence in sustained elevated conditions remains too limited to warrant highlights. Instead, fire weather concerns will manifest as another day of dry thunderstorm potential along the Mogollon Rim. Lightning data and MRMS imagery from the past 24 hours shows a mixture of heavy precipitation cores (QPE values near 0.25 inch) as well as multiple dry lightning strikes. Additionally, a couple of small fire starts were noted over the past 24 hours due to lightning. Similar thermodynamic conditions will be in place this afternoon and will likely yield a similar mixture of wet and dry thunderstorms. Unlikely previous days, thunderstorm coverage may be more limited due to weaker synoptic-scale forcing for ascent. ..Moore.. 08/11/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0104 AM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...Synopsis... Somewhat limited fire weather concerns are expected today across the Southwest/Four Corners region. Very dry conditions will persist across the eastern Great Basin/Four Corners with widespread 5-15% RH minimums expected this afternoon. However, low-level winds are expected to be somewhat weaker today compared to previous days as a surface high gradually builds across the Intermountain west. Sustained winds between 10-15 mph will likely be accompanied by 15-25 mph gusts by around peak heating when boundary-layer mixing will be maximized, but confidence in sustained elevated conditions remains too limited to warrant highlights. Instead, fire weather concerns will manifest as another day of dry thunderstorm potential along the Mogollon Rim. Lightning data and MRMS imagery from the past 24 hours shows a mixture of heavy precipitation cores (QPE values near 0.25 inch) as well as multiple dry lightning strikes. Additionally, a couple of small fire starts were noted over the past 24 hours due to lightning. Similar thermodynamic conditions will be in place this afternoon and will likely yield a similar mixture of wet and dry thunderstorms. Unlikely previous days, thunderstorm coverage may be more limited due to weaker synoptic-scale forcing for ascent. ..Moore.. 08/11/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0104 AM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...Synopsis... Somewhat limited fire weather concerns are expected today across the Southwest/Four Corners region. Very dry conditions will persist across the eastern Great Basin/Four Corners with widespread 5-15% RH minimums expected this afternoon. However, low-level winds are expected to be somewhat weaker today compared to previous days as a surface high gradually builds across the Intermountain west. Sustained winds between 10-15 mph will likely be accompanied by 15-25 mph gusts by around peak heating when boundary-layer mixing will be maximized, but confidence in sustained elevated conditions remains too limited to warrant highlights. Instead, fire weather concerns will manifest as another day of dry thunderstorm potential along the Mogollon Rim. Lightning data and MRMS imagery from the past 24 hours shows a mixture of heavy precipitation cores (QPE values near 0.25 inch) as well as multiple dry lightning strikes. Additionally, a couple of small fire starts were noted over the past 24 hours due to lightning. Similar thermodynamic conditions will be in place this afternoon and will likely yield a similar mixture of wet and dry thunderstorms. Unlikely previous days, thunderstorm coverage may be more limited due to weaker synoptic-scale forcing for ascent. ..Moore.. 08/11/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0104 AM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...Synopsis... Somewhat limited fire weather concerns are expected today across the Southwest/Four Corners region. Very dry conditions will persist across the eastern Great Basin/Four Corners with widespread 5-15% RH minimums expected this afternoon. However, low-level winds are expected to be somewhat weaker today compared to previous days as a surface high gradually builds across the Intermountain west. Sustained winds between 10-15 mph will likely be accompanied by 15-25 mph gusts by around peak heating when boundary-layer mixing will be maximized, but confidence in sustained elevated conditions remains too limited to warrant highlights. Instead, fire weather concerns will manifest as another day of dry thunderstorm potential along the Mogollon Rim. Lightning data and MRMS imagery from the past 24 hours shows a mixture of heavy precipitation cores (QPE values near 0.25 inch) as well as multiple dry lightning strikes. Additionally, a couple of small fire starts were noted over the past 24 hours due to lightning. Similar thermodynamic conditions will be in place this afternoon and will likely yield a similar mixture of wet and dry thunderstorms. Unlikely previous days, thunderstorm coverage may be more limited due to weaker synoptic-scale forcing for ascent. ..Moore.. 08/11/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0104 AM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...Synopsis... Somewhat limited fire weather concerns are expected today across the Southwest/Four Corners region. Very dry conditions will persist across the eastern Great Basin/Four Corners with widespread 5-15% RH minimums expected this afternoon. However, low-level winds are expected to be somewhat weaker today compared to previous days as a surface high gradually builds across the Intermountain west. Sustained winds between 10-15 mph will likely be accompanied by 15-25 mph gusts by around peak heating when boundary-layer mixing will be maximized, but confidence in sustained elevated conditions remains too limited to warrant highlights. Instead, fire weather concerns will manifest as another day of dry thunderstorm potential along the Mogollon Rim. Lightning data and MRMS imagery from the past 24 hours shows a mixture of heavy precipitation cores (QPE values near 0.25 inch) as well as multiple dry lightning strikes. Additionally, a couple of small fire starts were noted over the past 24 hours due to lightning. Similar thermodynamic conditions will be in place this afternoon and will likely yield a similar mixture of wet and dry thunderstorms. Unlikely previous days, thunderstorm coverage may be more limited due to weaker synoptic-scale forcing for ascent. ..Moore.. 08/11/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0104 AM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...Synopsis... Somewhat limited fire weather concerns are expected today across the Southwest/Four Corners region. Very dry conditions will persist across the eastern Great Basin/Four Corners with widespread 5-15% RH minimums expected this afternoon. However, low-level winds are expected to be somewhat weaker today compared to previous days as a surface high gradually builds across the Intermountain west. Sustained winds between 10-15 mph will likely be accompanied by 15-25 mph gusts by around peak heating when boundary-layer mixing will be maximized, but confidence in sustained elevated conditions remains too limited to warrant highlights. Instead, fire weather concerns will manifest as another day of dry thunderstorm potential along the Mogollon Rim. Lightning data and MRMS imagery from the past 24 hours shows a mixture of heavy precipitation cores (QPE values near 0.25 inch) as well as multiple dry lightning strikes. Additionally, a couple of small fire starts were noted over the past 24 hours due to lightning. Similar thermodynamic conditions will be in place this afternoon and will likely yield a similar mixture of wet and dry thunderstorms. Unlikely previous days, thunderstorm coverage may be more limited due to weaker synoptic-scale forcing for ascent. ..Moore.. 08/11/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0104 AM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...Synopsis... Somewhat limited fire weather concerns are expected today across the Southwest/Four Corners region. Very dry conditions will persist across the eastern Great Basin/Four Corners with widespread 5-15% RH minimums expected this afternoon. However, low-level winds are expected to be somewhat weaker today compared to previous days as a surface high gradually builds across the Intermountain west. Sustained winds between 10-15 mph will likely be accompanied by 15-25 mph gusts by around peak heating when boundary-layer mixing will be maximized, but confidence in sustained elevated conditions remains too limited to warrant highlights. Instead, fire weather concerns will manifest as another day of dry thunderstorm potential along the Mogollon Rim. Lightning data and MRMS imagery from the past 24 hours shows a mixture of heavy precipitation cores (QPE values near 0.25 inch) as well as multiple dry lightning strikes. Additionally, a couple of small fire starts were noted over the past 24 hours due to lightning. Similar thermodynamic conditions will be in place this afternoon and will likely yield a similar mixture of wet and dry thunderstorms. Unlikely previous days, thunderstorm coverage may be more limited due to weaker synoptic-scale forcing for ascent. ..Moore.. 08/11/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1231 AM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR EASTERN WISCONSIN AND UPPER MICHIGAN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the upper Great Lakes region Tuesday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... The main feature of interest will be a shortwave trough moving across the upper MS Valley and across the Great Lakes, with attendant cold front pushing east across Upper MI and WI through 00Z. Modest instability and lift along the front will likely result in scattered afternoon thunderstorms over these areas. While lapse rates will remain poor aloft, the combination of strengthening deep-layer shear and frontal passage near peak heating may yield a few stronger storms within an expected line across eastern WI. Mean wind speeds in the lowest 3km will not be very strong, nor will the mixed boundary layer be particularly deep. However, isolated damaging gusts or marginal hail may occur as cooling aloft overspreads the warmed air mass late. Elsewhere, scattered storms will occur over the Southern Plains beneath a weak midlevel disturbance, and over parts of the Midwest and Southeast where low-level moisture will favor sporadic afternoon development. ..Jewell.. 08/11/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1231 AM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR EASTERN WISCONSIN AND UPPER MICHIGAN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the upper Great Lakes region Tuesday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... The main feature of interest will be a shortwave trough moving across the upper MS Valley and across the Great Lakes, with attendant cold front pushing east across Upper MI and WI through 00Z. Modest instability and lift along the front will likely result in scattered afternoon thunderstorms over these areas. While lapse rates will remain poor aloft, the combination of strengthening deep-layer shear and frontal passage near peak heating may yield a few stronger storms within an expected line across eastern WI. Mean wind speeds in the lowest 3km will not be very strong, nor will the mixed boundary layer be particularly deep. However, isolated damaging gusts or marginal hail may occur as cooling aloft overspreads the warmed air mass late. Elsewhere, scattered storms will occur over the Southern Plains beneath a weak midlevel disturbance, and over parts of the Midwest and Southeast where low-level moisture will favor sporadic afternoon development. ..Jewell.. 08/11/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1231 AM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR EASTERN WISCONSIN AND UPPER MICHIGAN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the upper Great Lakes region Tuesday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... The main feature of interest will be a shortwave trough moving across the upper MS Valley and across the Great Lakes, with attendant cold front pushing east across Upper MI and WI through 00Z. Modest instability and lift along the front will likely result in scattered afternoon thunderstorms over these areas. While lapse rates will remain poor aloft, the combination of strengthening deep-layer shear and frontal passage near peak heating may yield a few stronger storms within an expected line across eastern WI. Mean wind speeds in the lowest 3km will not be very strong, nor will the mixed boundary layer be particularly deep. However, isolated damaging gusts or marginal hail may occur as cooling aloft overspreads the warmed air mass late. Elsewhere, scattered storms will occur over the Southern Plains beneath a weak midlevel disturbance, and over parts of the Midwest and Southeast where low-level moisture will favor sporadic afternoon development. ..Jewell.. 08/11/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1231 AM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR EASTERN WISCONSIN AND UPPER MICHIGAN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the upper Great Lakes region Tuesday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... The main feature of interest will be a shortwave trough moving across the upper MS Valley and across the Great Lakes, with attendant cold front pushing east across Upper MI and WI through 00Z. Modest instability and lift along the front will likely result in scattered afternoon thunderstorms over these areas. While lapse rates will remain poor aloft, the combination of strengthening deep-layer shear and frontal passage near peak heating may yield a few stronger storms within an expected line across eastern WI. Mean wind speeds in the lowest 3km will not be very strong, nor will the mixed boundary layer be particularly deep. However, isolated damaging gusts or marginal hail may occur as cooling aloft overspreads the warmed air mass late. Elsewhere, scattered storms will occur over the Southern Plains beneath a weak midlevel disturbance, and over parts of the Midwest and Southeast where low-level moisture will favor sporadic afternoon development. ..Jewell.. 08/11/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1231 AM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR EASTERN WISCONSIN AND UPPER MICHIGAN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the upper Great Lakes region Tuesday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... The main feature of interest will be a shortwave trough moving across the upper MS Valley and across the Great Lakes, with attendant cold front pushing east across Upper MI and WI through 00Z. Modest instability and lift along the front will likely result in scattered afternoon thunderstorms over these areas. While lapse rates will remain poor aloft, the combination of strengthening deep-layer shear and frontal passage near peak heating may yield a few stronger storms within an expected line across eastern WI. Mean wind speeds in the lowest 3km will not be very strong, nor will the mixed boundary layer be particularly deep. However, isolated damaging gusts or marginal hail may occur as cooling aloft overspreads the warmed air mass late. Elsewhere, scattered storms will occur over the Southern Plains beneath a weak midlevel disturbance, and over parts of the Midwest and Southeast where low-level moisture will favor sporadic afternoon development. ..Jewell.. 08/11/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1231 AM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR EASTERN WISCONSIN AND UPPER MICHIGAN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the upper Great Lakes region Tuesday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... The main feature of interest will be a shortwave trough moving across the upper MS Valley and across the Great Lakes, with attendant cold front pushing east across Upper MI and WI through 00Z. Modest instability and lift along the front will likely result in scattered afternoon thunderstorms over these areas. While lapse rates will remain poor aloft, the combination of strengthening deep-layer shear and frontal passage near peak heating may yield a few stronger storms within an expected line across eastern WI. Mean wind speeds in the lowest 3km will not be very strong, nor will the mixed boundary layer be particularly deep. However, isolated damaging gusts or marginal hail may occur as cooling aloft overspreads the warmed air mass late. Elsewhere, scattered storms will occur over the Southern Plains beneath a weak midlevel disturbance, and over parts of the Midwest and Southeast where low-level moisture will favor sporadic afternoon development. ..Jewell.. 08/11/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1231 AM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR EASTERN WISCONSIN AND UPPER MICHIGAN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the upper Great Lakes region Tuesday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... The main feature of interest will be a shortwave trough moving across the upper MS Valley and across the Great Lakes, with attendant cold front pushing east across Upper MI and WI through 00Z. Modest instability and lift along the front will likely result in scattered afternoon thunderstorms over these areas. While lapse rates will remain poor aloft, the combination of strengthening deep-layer shear and frontal passage near peak heating may yield a few stronger storms within an expected line across eastern WI. Mean wind speeds in the lowest 3km will not be very strong, nor will the mixed boundary layer be particularly deep. However, isolated damaging gusts or marginal hail may occur as cooling aloft overspreads the warmed air mass late. Elsewhere, scattered storms will occur over the Southern Plains beneath a weak midlevel disturbance, and over parts of the Midwest and Southeast where low-level moisture will favor sporadic afternoon development. ..Jewell.. 08/11/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1231 AM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR EASTERN WISCONSIN AND UPPER MICHIGAN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the upper Great Lakes region Tuesday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... The main feature of interest will be a shortwave trough moving across the upper MS Valley and across the Great Lakes, with attendant cold front pushing east across Upper MI and WI through 00Z. Modest instability and lift along the front will likely result in scattered afternoon thunderstorms over these areas. While lapse rates will remain poor aloft, the combination of strengthening deep-layer shear and frontal passage near peak heating may yield a few stronger storms within an expected line across eastern WI. Mean wind speeds in the lowest 3km will not be very strong, nor will the mixed boundary layer be particularly deep. However, isolated damaging gusts or marginal hail may occur as cooling aloft overspreads the warmed air mass late. Elsewhere, scattered storms will occur over the Southern Plains beneath a weak midlevel disturbance, and over parts of the Midwest and Southeast where low-level moisture will favor sporadic afternoon development. ..Jewell.. 08/11/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1231 AM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR EASTERN WISCONSIN AND UPPER MICHIGAN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the upper Great Lakes region Tuesday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... The main feature of interest will be a shortwave trough moving across the upper MS Valley and across the Great Lakes, with attendant cold front pushing east across Upper MI and WI through 00Z. Modest instability and lift along the front will likely result in scattered afternoon thunderstorms over these areas. While lapse rates will remain poor aloft, the combination of strengthening deep-layer shear and frontal passage near peak heating may yield a few stronger storms within an expected line across eastern WI. Mean wind speeds in the lowest 3km will not be very strong, nor will the mixed boundary layer be particularly deep. However, isolated damaging gusts or marginal hail may occur as cooling aloft overspreads the warmed air mass late. Elsewhere, scattered storms will occur over the Southern Plains beneath a weak midlevel disturbance, and over parts of the Midwest and Southeast where low-level moisture will favor sporadic afternoon development. ..Jewell.. 08/11/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1231 AM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR EASTERN WISCONSIN AND UPPER MICHIGAN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the upper Great Lakes region Tuesday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... The main feature of interest will be a shortwave trough moving across the upper MS Valley and across the Great Lakes, with attendant cold front pushing east across Upper MI and WI through 00Z. Modest instability and lift along the front will likely result in scattered afternoon thunderstorms over these areas. While lapse rates will remain poor aloft, the combination of strengthening deep-layer shear and frontal passage near peak heating may yield a few stronger storms within an expected line across eastern WI. Mean wind speeds in the lowest 3km will not be very strong, nor will the mixed boundary layer be particularly deep. However, isolated damaging gusts or marginal hail may occur as cooling aloft overspreads the warmed air mass late. Elsewhere, scattered storms will occur over the Southern Plains beneath a weak midlevel disturbance, and over parts of the Midwest and Southeast where low-level moisture will favor sporadic afternoon development. ..Jewell.. 08/11/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1231 AM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR EASTERN WISCONSIN AND UPPER MICHIGAN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the upper Great Lakes region Tuesday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... The main feature of interest will be a shortwave trough moving across the upper MS Valley and across the Great Lakes, with attendant cold front pushing east across Upper MI and WI through 00Z. Modest instability and lift along the front will likely result in scattered afternoon thunderstorms over these areas. While lapse rates will remain poor aloft, the combination of strengthening deep-layer shear and frontal passage near peak heating may yield a few stronger storms within an expected line across eastern WI. Mean wind speeds in the lowest 3km will not be very strong, nor will the mixed boundary layer be particularly deep. However, isolated damaging gusts or marginal hail may occur as cooling aloft overspreads the warmed air mass late. Elsewhere, scattered storms will occur over the Southern Plains beneath a weak midlevel disturbance, and over parts of the Midwest and Southeast where low-level moisture will favor sporadic afternoon development. ..Jewell.. 08/11/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1231 AM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR EASTERN WISCONSIN AND UPPER MICHIGAN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the upper Great Lakes region Tuesday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... The main feature of interest will be a shortwave trough moving across the upper MS Valley and across the Great Lakes, with attendant cold front pushing east across Upper MI and WI through 00Z. Modest instability and lift along the front will likely result in scattered afternoon thunderstorms over these areas. While lapse rates will remain poor aloft, the combination of strengthening deep-layer shear and frontal passage near peak heating may yield a few stronger storms within an expected line across eastern WI. Mean wind speeds in the lowest 3km will not be very strong, nor will the mixed boundary layer be particularly deep. However, isolated damaging gusts or marginal hail may occur as cooling aloft overspreads the warmed air mass late. Elsewhere, scattered storms will occur over the Southern Plains beneath a weak midlevel disturbance, and over parts of the Midwest and Southeast where low-level moisture will favor sporadic afternoon development. ..Jewell.. 08/11/2025 Read more