Severe Storms

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1124 AM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025 Valid 111700Z - 121200Z Minor adjustments were made to the D1 Fire Weather Outlook Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area across Arizona in alignment with trends in recent guidance. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 08/11/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0104 AM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025/ ...Synopsis... Somewhat limited fire weather concerns are expected today across the Southwest/Four Corners region. Very dry conditions will persist across the eastern Great Basin/Four Corners with widespread 5-15% RH minimums expected this afternoon. However, low-level winds are expected to be somewhat weaker today compared to previous days as a surface high gradually builds across the Intermountain west. Sustained winds between 10-15 mph will likely be accompanied by 15-25 mph gusts by around peak heating when boundary-layer mixing will be maximized, but confidence in sustained elevated conditions remains too limited to warrant highlights. Instead, fire weather concerns will manifest as another day of dry thunderstorm potential along the Mogollon Rim. Lightning data and MRMS imagery from the past 24 hours shows a mixture of heavy precipitation cores (QPE values near 0.25 inch) as well as multiple dry lightning strikes. Additionally, a couple of small fire starts were noted over the past 24 hours due to lightning. Similar thermodynamic conditions will be in place this afternoon and will likely yield a similar mixture of wet and dry thunderstorms. Unlikely previous days, thunderstorm coverage may be more limited due to weaker synoptic-scale forcing for ascent. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1124 AM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025 Valid 111700Z - 121200Z Minor adjustments were made to the D1 Fire Weather Outlook Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area across Arizona in alignment with trends in recent guidance. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 08/11/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0104 AM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025/ ...Synopsis... Somewhat limited fire weather concerns are expected today across the Southwest/Four Corners region. Very dry conditions will persist across the eastern Great Basin/Four Corners with widespread 5-15% RH minimums expected this afternoon. However, low-level winds are expected to be somewhat weaker today compared to previous days as a surface high gradually builds across the Intermountain west. Sustained winds between 10-15 mph will likely be accompanied by 15-25 mph gusts by around peak heating when boundary-layer mixing will be maximized, but confidence in sustained elevated conditions remains too limited to warrant highlights. Instead, fire weather concerns will manifest as another day of dry thunderstorm potential along the Mogollon Rim. Lightning data and MRMS imagery from the past 24 hours shows a mixture of heavy precipitation cores (QPE values near 0.25 inch) as well as multiple dry lightning strikes. Additionally, a couple of small fire starts were noted over the past 24 hours due to lightning. Similar thermodynamic conditions will be in place this afternoon and will likely yield a similar mixture of wet and dry thunderstorms. Unlikely previous days, thunderstorm coverage may be more limited due to weaker synoptic-scale forcing for ascent. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1124 AM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025 Valid 111700Z - 121200Z Minor adjustments were made to the D1 Fire Weather Outlook Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area across Arizona in alignment with trends in recent guidance. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 08/11/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0104 AM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025/ ...Synopsis... Somewhat limited fire weather concerns are expected today across the Southwest/Four Corners region. Very dry conditions will persist across the eastern Great Basin/Four Corners with widespread 5-15% RH minimums expected this afternoon. However, low-level winds are expected to be somewhat weaker today compared to previous days as a surface high gradually builds across the Intermountain west. Sustained winds between 10-15 mph will likely be accompanied by 15-25 mph gusts by around peak heating when boundary-layer mixing will be maximized, but confidence in sustained elevated conditions remains too limited to warrant highlights. Instead, fire weather concerns will manifest as another day of dry thunderstorm potential along the Mogollon Rim. Lightning data and MRMS imagery from the past 24 hours shows a mixture of heavy precipitation cores (QPE values near 0.25 inch) as well as multiple dry lightning strikes. Additionally, a couple of small fire starts were noted over the past 24 hours due to lightning. Similar thermodynamic conditions will be in place this afternoon and will likely yield a similar mixture of wet and dry thunderstorms. Unlikely previous days, thunderstorm coverage may be more limited due to weaker synoptic-scale forcing for ascent. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1112 AM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025 Valid 111630Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS...LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY...AND UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the southern Plains, lower Missouri Valley, and the Upper Midwest, mainly this afternoon and evening. ...Lower MO Valley... Visible satellite/radar composite shows an MCV moving east-northeastward over northeast KS late this morning. Regional WSR-88D VAD data shows an enhanced belt of 850-500 mb flow (40 kt in the 2-6 km layer) associated with this disturbance. Surface analysis places a surface low over the Flint Hills with backed easterly flow across eastern KS into northwest MO. Considerable mid- to high-level cloud debris from early morning convection will be slow to dissipate, but gradual filtering of sunlight and the initial signs of a stratocumulus field over the Flint Hills indicates destabilization is beginning to occur. Models vary considerably (understandably so) regarding the development/evolution of a few potential stronger thunderstorms across the lower MO Valley later this afternoon into the early evening. Some forecast soundings show modest enlargement of the low-level portion of the hodograph, which may support updraft rotation if vigorous updraft development occurs. Given the low probability for severe and potentially supportive environment, have introduced low-severe probabilities this outlook update. ...Southern Plains... Morning analysis shows an outflow reinforced front has advanced southward across the southern High Plains, but has stalled near the I-44 corridor in OK southwestward into the northern periphery of the Permian Basin. Water-vapor imagery shows a mid-level impulse moving across southern CO and embedded within larger-scale troughing from CO/NM into the Upper Midwest. This mid-level trough will gradually pivot eastward over the southern High Plains through the evening. Heating of an adequately moist boundary layer (dewpoints ranging from the lower 70s in central OK to the mid 50s in east-central NM) will yield moderate buoyancy near/north of the diffuse boundary. Weak low-level winds will gradually veer to west-northwesterly and modestly strengthen with height through mid/upper levels, supporting modest deep-layer shear and some updraft organization. Isolated severe hail may occur with initially more cellular development across the southern High Plains, before some clustering potentially occurs late this afternoon/evening farther east into the TX Panhandle and northwest TX with more of a wind threat. While deep-layer shear will likely remain weak farther east across OK, the front/outflow boundary should aid in at least scattered thunderstorms. Isolated large hail and severe gusts are the primary hazards with the stronger thunderstorms. ...North Dakota into Northern Minnesota... No change in thinking from the previous forecast. A mid-level shortwave trough and related surface cold front are forecast to move east-southeastward over ND and northern MN through the period. Modest low-level moisture characterized by mid 50s to perhaps low 60s surface dewpoints should be present ahead of the front across these areas. Diurnal heating and modestly steepened lapse rates aloft should aid in the development of weak instability this afternoon. Thunderstorms should gradually increase in coverage along/ahead of the front this afternoon/evening as they spread eastward over parts of ND into northern MN. The stronger cells may produce marginally severe hail, with sufficient deep-layer shear present for some convective organization. With time, some clustering/upscale growth along the front appears probable, with isolated strong to severe gusts possible. The lack of stronger instability should tend to temper the overall severe threat. ..Smith/Squitieri.. 08/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1112 AM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025 Valid 111630Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS...LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY...AND UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the southern Plains, lower Missouri Valley, and the Upper Midwest, mainly this afternoon and evening. ...Lower MO Valley... Visible satellite/radar composite shows an MCV moving east-northeastward over northeast KS late this morning. Regional WSR-88D VAD data shows an enhanced belt of 850-500 mb flow (40 kt in the 2-6 km layer) associated with this disturbance. Surface analysis places a surface low over the Flint Hills with backed easterly flow across eastern KS into northwest MO. Considerable mid- to high-level cloud debris from early morning convection will be slow to dissipate, but gradual filtering of sunlight and the initial signs of a stratocumulus field over the Flint Hills indicates destabilization is beginning to occur. Models vary considerably (understandably so) regarding the development/evolution of a few potential stronger thunderstorms across the lower MO Valley later this afternoon into the early evening. Some forecast soundings show modest enlargement of the low-level portion of the hodograph, which may support updraft rotation if vigorous updraft development occurs. Given the low probability for severe and potentially supportive environment, have introduced low-severe probabilities this outlook update. ...Southern Plains... Morning analysis shows an outflow reinforced front has advanced southward across the southern High Plains, but has stalled near the I-44 corridor in OK southwestward into the northern periphery of the Permian Basin. Water-vapor imagery shows a mid-level impulse moving across southern CO and embedded within larger-scale troughing from CO/NM into the Upper Midwest. This mid-level trough will gradually pivot eastward over the southern High Plains through the evening. Heating of an adequately moist boundary layer (dewpoints ranging from the lower 70s in central OK to the mid 50s in east-central NM) will yield moderate buoyancy near/north of the diffuse boundary. Weak low-level winds will gradually veer to west-northwesterly and modestly strengthen with height through mid/upper levels, supporting modest deep-layer shear and some updraft organization. Isolated severe hail may occur with initially more cellular development across the southern High Plains, before some clustering potentially occurs late this afternoon/evening farther east into the TX Panhandle and northwest TX with more of a wind threat. While deep-layer shear will likely remain weak farther east across OK, the front/outflow boundary should aid in at least scattered thunderstorms. Isolated large hail and severe gusts are the primary hazards with the stronger thunderstorms. ...North Dakota into Northern Minnesota... No change in thinking from the previous forecast. A mid-level shortwave trough and related surface cold front are forecast to move east-southeastward over ND and northern MN through the period. Modest low-level moisture characterized by mid 50s to perhaps low 60s surface dewpoints should be present ahead of the front across these areas. Diurnal heating and modestly steepened lapse rates aloft should aid in the development of weak instability this afternoon. Thunderstorms should gradually increase in coverage along/ahead of the front this afternoon/evening as they spread eastward over parts of ND into northern MN. The stronger cells may produce marginally severe hail, with sufficient deep-layer shear present for some convective organization. With time, some clustering/upscale growth along the front appears probable, with isolated strong to severe gusts possible. The lack of stronger instability should tend to temper the overall severe threat. ..Smith/Squitieri.. 08/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1112 AM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025 Valid 111630Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS...LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY...AND UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the southern Plains, lower Missouri Valley, and the Upper Midwest, mainly this afternoon and evening. ...Lower MO Valley... Visible satellite/radar composite shows an MCV moving east-northeastward over northeast KS late this morning. Regional WSR-88D VAD data shows an enhanced belt of 850-500 mb flow (40 kt in the 2-6 km layer) associated with this disturbance. Surface analysis places a surface low over the Flint Hills with backed easterly flow across eastern KS into northwest MO. Considerable mid- to high-level cloud debris from early morning convection will be slow to dissipate, but gradual filtering of sunlight and the initial signs of a stratocumulus field over the Flint Hills indicates destabilization is beginning to occur. Models vary considerably (understandably so) regarding the development/evolution of a few potential stronger thunderstorms across the lower MO Valley later this afternoon into the early evening. Some forecast soundings show modest enlargement of the low-level portion of the hodograph, which may support updraft rotation if vigorous updraft development occurs. Given the low probability for severe and potentially supportive environment, have introduced low-severe probabilities this outlook update. ...Southern Plains... Morning analysis shows an outflow reinforced front has advanced southward across the southern High Plains, but has stalled near the I-44 corridor in OK southwestward into the northern periphery of the Permian Basin. Water-vapor imagery shows a mid-level impulse moving across southern CO and embedded within larger-scale troughing from CO/NM into the Upper Midwest. This mid-level trough will gradually pivot eastward over the southern High Plains through the evening. Heating of an adequately moist boundary layer (dewpoints ranging from the lower 70s in central OK to the mid 50s in east-central NM) will yield moderate buoyancy near/north of the diffuse boundary. Weak low-level winds will gradually veer to west-northwesterly and modestly strengthen with height through mid/upper levels, supporting modest deep-layer shear and some updraft organization. Isolated severe hail may occur with initially more cellular development across the southern High Plains, before some clustering potentially occurs late this afternoon/evening farther east into the TX Panhandle and northwest TX with more of a wind threat. While deep-layer shear will likely remain weak farther east across OK, the front/outflow boundary should aid in at least scattered thunderstorms. Isolated large hail and severe gusts are the primary hazards with the stronger thunderstorms. ...North Dakota into Northern Minnesota... No change in thinking from the previous forecast. A mid-level shortwave trough and related surface cold front are forecast to move east-southeastward over ND and northern MN through the period. Modest low-level moisture characterized by mid 50s to perhaps low 60s surface dewpoints should be present ahead of the front across these areas. Diurnal heating and modestly steepened lapse rates aloft should aid in the development of weak instability this afternoon. Thunderstorms should gradually increase in coverage along/ahead of the front this afternoon/evening as they spread eastward over parts of ND into northern MN. The stronger cells may produce marginally severe hail, with sufficient deep-layer shear present for some convective organization. With time, some clustering/upscale growth along the front appears probable, with isolated strong to severe gusts possible. The lack of stronger instability should tend to temper the overall severe threat. ..Smith/Squitieri.. 08/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1112 AM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025 Valid 111630Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS...LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY...AND UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the southern Plains, lower Missouri Valley, and the Upper Midwest, mainly this afternoon and evening. ...Lower MO Valley... Visible satellite/radar composite shows an MCV moving east-northeastward over northeast KS late this morning. Regional WSR-88D VAD data shows an enhanced belt of 850-500 mb flow (40 kt in the 2-6 km layer) associated with this disturbance. Surface analysis places a surface low over the Flint Hills with backed easterly flow across eastern KS into northwest MO. Considerable mid- to high-level cloud debris from early morning convection will be slow to dissipate, but gradual filtering of sunlight and the initial signs of a stratocumulus field over the Flint Hills indicates destabilization is beginning to occur. Models vary considerably (understandably so) regarding the development/evolution of a few potential stronger thunderstorms across the lower MO Valley later this afternoon into the early evening. Some forecast soundings show modest enlargement of the low-level portion of the hodograph, which may support updraft rotation if vigorous updraft development occurs. Given the low probability for severe and potentially supportive environment, have introduced low-severe probabilities this outlook update. ...Southern Plains... Morning analysis shows an outflow reinforced front has advanced southward across the southern High Plains, but has stalled near the I-44 corridor in OK southwestward into the northern periphery of the Permian Basin. Water-vapor imagery shows a mid-level impulse moving across southern CO and embedded within larger-scale troughing from CO/NM into the Upper Midwest. This mid-level trough will gradually pivot eastward over the southern High Plains through the evening. Heating of an adequately moist boundary layer (dewpoints ranging from the lower 70s in central OK to the mid 50s in east-central NM) will yield moderate buoyancy near/north of the diffuse boundary. Weak low-level winds will gradually veer to west-northwesterly and modestly strengthen with height through mid/upper levels, supporting modest deep-layer shear and some updraft organization. Isolated severe hail may occur with initially more cellular development across the southern High Plains, before some clustering potentially occurs late this afternoon/evening farther east into the TX Panhandle and northwest TX with more of a wind threat. While deep-layer shear will likely remain weak farther east across OK, the front/outflow boundary should aid in at least scattered thunderstorms. Isolated large hail and severe gusts are the primary hazards with the stronger thunderstorms. ...North Dakota into Northern Minnesota... No change in thinking from the previous forecast. A mid-level shortwave trough and related surface cold front are forecast to move east-southeastward over ND and northern MN through the period. Modest low-level moisture characterized by mid 50s to perhaps low 60s surface dewpoints should be present ahead of the front across these areas. Diurnal heating and modestly steepened lapse rates aloft should aid in the development of weak instability this afternoon. Thunderstorms should gradually increase in coverage along/ahead of the front this afternoon/evening as they spread eastward over parts of ND into northern MN. The stronger cells may produce marginally severe hail, with sufficient deep-layer shear present for some convective organization. With time, some clustering/upscale growth along the front appears probable, with isolated strong to severe gusts possible. The lack of stronger instability should tend to temper the overall severe threat. ..Smith/Squitieri.. 08/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1112 AM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025 Valid 111630Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS...LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY...AND UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the southern Plains, lower Missouri Valley, and the Upper Midwest, mainly this afternoon and evening. ...Lower MO Valley... Visible satellite/radar composite shows an MCV moving east-northeastward over northeast KS late this morning. Regional WSR-88D VAD data shows an enhanced belt of 850-500 mb flow (40 kt in the 2-6 km layer) associated with this disturbance. Surface analysis places a surface low over the Flint Hills with backed easterly flow across eastern KS into northwest MO. Considerable mid- to high-level cloud debris from early morning convection will be slow to dissipate, but gradual filtering of sunlight and the initial signs of a stratocumulus field over the Flint Hills indicates destabilization is beginning to occur. Models vary considerably (understandably so) regarding the development/evolution of a few potential stronger thunderstorms across the lower MO Valley later this afternoon into the early evening. Some forecast soundings show modest enlargement of the low-level portion of the hodograph, which may support updraft rotation if vigorous updraft development occurs. Given the low probability for severe and potentially supportive environment, have introduced low-severe probabilities this outlook update. ...Southern Plains... Morning analysis shows an outflow reinforced front has advanced southward across the southern High Plains, but has stalled near the I-44 corridor in OK southwestward into the northern periphery of the Permian Basin. Water-vapor imagery shows a mid-level impulse moving across southern CO and embedded within larger-scale troughing from CO/NM into the Upper Midwest. This mid-level trough will gradually pivot eastward over the southern High Plains through the evening. Heating of an adequately moist boundary layer (dewpoints ranging from the lower 70s in central OK to the mid 50s in east-central NM) will yield moderate buoyancy near/north of the diffuse boundary. Weak low-level winds will gradually veer to west-northwesterly and modestly strengthen with height through mid/upper levels, supporting modest deep-layer shear and some updraft organization. Isolated severe hail may occur with initially more cellular development across the southern High Plains, before some clustering potentially occurs late this afternoon/evening farther east into the TX Panhandle and northwest TX with more of a wind threat. While deep-layer shear will likely remain weak farther east across OK, the front/outflow boundary should aid in at least scattered thunderstorms. Isolated large hail and severe gusts are the primary hazards with the stronger thunderstorms. ...North Dakota into Northern Minnesota... No change in thinking from the previous forecast. A mid-level shortwave trough and related surface cold front are forecast to move east-southeastward over ND and northern MN through the period. Modest low-level moisture characterized by mid 50s to perhaps low 60s surface dewpoints should be present ahead of the front across these areas. Diurnal heating and modestly steepened lapse rates aloft should aid in the development of weak instability this afternoon. Thunderstorms should gradually increase in coverage along/ahead of the front this afternoon/evening as they spread eastward over parts of ND into northern MN. The stronger cells may produce marginally severe hail, with sufficient deep-layer shear present for some convective organization. With time, some clustering/upscale growth along the front appears probable, with isolated strong to severe gusts possible. The lack of stronger instability should tend to temper the overall severe threat. ..Smith/Squitieri.. 08/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1112 AM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025 Valid 111630Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS...LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY...AND UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the southern Plains, lower Missouri Valley, and the Upper Midwest, mainly this afternoon and evening. ...Lower MO Valley... Visible satellite/radar composite shows an MCV moving east-northeastward over northeast KS late this morning. Regional WSR-88D VAD data shows an enhanced belt of 850-500 mb flow (40 kt in the 2-6 km layer) associated with this disturbance. Surface analysis places a surface low over the Flint Hills with backed easterly flow across eastern KS into northwest MO. Considerable mid- to high-level cloud debris from early morning convection will be slow to dissipate, but gradual filtering of sunlight and the initial signs of a stratocumulus field over the Flint Hills indicates destabilization is beginning to occur. Models vary considerably (understandably so) regarding the development/evolution of a few potential stronger thunderstorms across the lower MO Valley later this afternoon into the early evening. Some forecast soundings show modest enlargement of the low-level portion of the hodograph, which may support updraft rotation if vigorous updraft development occurs. Given the low probability for severe and potentially supportive environment, have introduced low-severe probabilities this outlook update. ...Southern Plains... Morning analysis shows an outflow reinforced front has advanced southward across the southern High Plains, but has stalled near the I-44 corridor in OK southwestward into the northern periphery of the Permian Basin. Water-vapor imagery shows a mid-level impulse moving across southern CO and embedded within larger-scale troughing from CO/NM into the Upper Midwest. This mid-level trough will gradually pivot eastward over the southern High Plains through the evening. Heating of an adequately moist boundary layer (dewpoints ranging from the lower 70s in central OK to the mid 50s in east-central NM) will yield moderate buoyancy near/north of the diffuse boundary. Weak low-level winds will gradually veer to west-northwesterly and modestly strengthen with height through mid/upper levels, supporting modest deep-layer shear and some updraft organization. Isolated severe hail may occur with initially more cellular development across the southern High Plains, before some clustering potentially occurs late this afternoon/evening farther east into the TX Panhandle and northwest TX with more of a wind threat. While deep-layer shear will likely remain weak farther east across OK, the front/outflow boundary should aid in at least scattered thunderstorms. Isolated large hail and severe gusts are the primary hazards with the stronger thunderstorms. ...North Dakota into Northern Minnesota... No change in thinking from the previous forecast. A mid-level shortwave trough and related surface cold front are forecast to move east-southeastward over ND and northern MN through the period. Modest low-level moisture characterized by mid 50s to perhaps low 60s surface dewpoints should be present ahead of the front across these areas. Diurnal heating and modestly steepened lapse rates aloft should aid in the development of weak instability this afternoon. Thunderstorms should gradually increase in coverage along/ahead of the front this afternoon/evening as they spread eastward over parts of ND into northern MN. The stronger cells may produce marginally severe hail, with sufficient deep-layer shear present for some convective organization. With time, some clustering/upscale growth along the front appears probable, with isolated strong to severe gusts possible. The lack of stronger instability should tend to temper the overall severe threat. ..Smith/Squitieri.. 08/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0746 AM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025 Valid 111300Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may pose some risk for severe winds and hail across parts of the southern Plains, and separately from North Dakota into northern Minnesota, mainly this afternoon and evening. ...Southern Plains... Convection has generally weakened this morning across eastern KS, with a outflow reinforced front advancing southward across the southern High Plains. This boundary is forecast to stall through the morning and early afternoon, and it will likely serve as a focus for renewed thunderstorm development later today. The southern extent of upper troughing that exists over much of the Plains is forecast to advance eastward across the southern High Plains this afternoon. Initial development over the higher terrain of north-central into northeast NM should occur in a modest low-level upslope flow regime, with steep lapse rates aloft contributing to moderate instability. Weak low-level winds will gradually veer to west-northwesterly and modestly strengthen with height through mid/upper levels, supporting modest deep-layer shear and some updraft organization. Isolated severe hail may occur with initially more cellular development across the southern High Plains, before some clustering potentially occurs late this afternoon/evening farther east into the TX Panhandle and northwest TX with more of a wind threat. While deep-layer shear will likely remain weak farther east across OK, the front/outflow boundary should aid in at least scattered thunderstorms developing with moderate to locally strong instability amid ample daytime heating. Isolated damaging winds via strong downbursts and marginally severe hail appear possible with the stronger cores given seasonably cool temperatures aloft (around -10C at 500 mb with the 12Z OUN observed sounding), and the Marginal Risk has been expanded eastward for this possibility. ...North Dakota into Northern Minnesota... Within upper troughing already established over the northern/central Plains and central Canada, a mid-level shortwave trough and related surface cold front are forecast to move east-southeastward over ND and northern MN through the period. Modest low-level moisture characterized by mid 50s to perhaps low 60s surface dewpoints should be present ahead of the front across these areas. Diurnal heating and modestly steepened lapse rates aloft should aid in the development of weak instability this afternoon. Thunderstorms should gradually increase in coverage along/ahead of the front this afternoon/evening as they spread eastward over parts of ND into northern MN. The stronger cells may produce marginally severe hail, with sufficient deep-layer shear present for some convective organization. With time, some clustering/upscale growth along the front appears probable, with isolated strong to severe gusts possible. The lack of stronger instability should tend to temper the overall severe threat. ...Missouri/Iowa... An MCV generated by overnight/early morning convection across the southern/central Plains should develop northeastward into parts of northern MO and IA by this afternoon. It remains unclear whether sufficient instability to support robust thunderstorms will be able to develop today ahead of this feature given ongoing convection and cloud debris. Regardless, some enhancement to the low/mid-level flow and related deep-layer shear could support updraft organization if surface-based thunderstorms can develop. Given the continued uncertainty regarding this potential, have held off on inclusion of low severe probabilities across this region with this update. ..Gleason/Leitman.. 08/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0746 AM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025 Valid 111300Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may pose some risk for severe winds and hail across parts of the southern Plains, and separately from North Dakota into northern Minnesota, mainly this afternoon and evening. ...Southern Plains... Convection has generally weakened this morning across eastern KS, with a outflow reinforced front advancing southward across the southern High Plains. This boundary is forecast to stall through the morning and early afternoon, and it will likely serve as a focus for renewed thunderstorm development later today. The southern extent of upper troughing that exists over much of the Plains is forecast to advance eastward across the southern High Plains this afternoon. Initial development over the higher terrain of north-central into northeast NM should occur in a modest low-level upslope flow regime, with steep lapse rates aloft contributing to moderate instability. Weak low-level winds will gradually veer to west-northwesterly and modestly strengthen with height through mid/upper levels, supporting modest deep-layer shear and some updraft organization. Isolated severe hail may occur with initially more cellular development across the southern High Plains, before some clustering potentially occurs late this afternoon/evening farther east into the TX Panhandle and northwest TX with more of a wind threat. While deep-layer shear will likely remain weak farther east across OK, the front/outflow boundary should aid in at least scattered thunderstorms developing with moderate to locally strong instability amid ample daytime heating. Isolated damaging winds via strong downbursts and marginally severe hail appear possible with the stronger cores given seasonably cool temperatures aloft (around -10C at 500 mb with the 12Z OUN observed sounding), and the Marginal Risk has been expanded eastward for this possibility. ...North Dakota into Northern Minnesota... Within upper troughing already established over the northern/central Plains and central Canada, a mid-level shortwave trough and related surface cold front are forecast to move east-southeastward over ND and northern MN through the period. Modest low-level moisture characterized by mid 50s to perhaps low 60s surface dewpoints should be present ahead of the front across these areas. Diurnal heating and modestly steepened lapse rates aloft should aid in the development of weak instability this afternoon. Thunderstorms should gradually increase in coverage along/ahead of the front this afternoon/evening as they spread eastward over parts of ND into northern MN. The stronger cells may produce marginally severe hail, with sufficient deep-layer shear present for some convective organization. With time, some clustering/upscale growth along the front appears probable, with isolated strong to severe gusts possible. The lack of stronger instability should tend to temper the overall severe threat. ...Missouri/Iowa... An MCV generated by overnight/early morning convection across the southern/central Plains should develop northeastward into parts of northern MO and IA by this afternoon. It remains unclear whether sufficient instability to support robust thunderstorms will be able to develop today ahead of this feature given ongoing convection and cloud debris. Regardless, some enhancement to the low/mid-level flow and related deep-layer shear could support updraft organization if surface-based thunderstorms can develop. Given the continued uncertainty regarding this potential, have held off on inclusion of low severe probabilities across this region with this update. ..Gleason/Leitman.. 08/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0746 AM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025 Valid 111300Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may pose some risk for severe winds and hail across parts of the southern Plains, and separately from North Dakota into northern Minnesota, mainly this afternoon and evening. ...Southern Plains... Convection has generally weakened this morning across eastern KS, with a outflow reinforced front advancing southward across the southern High Plains. This boundary is forecast to stall through the morning and early afternoon, and it will likely serve as a focus for renewed thunderstorm development later today. The southern extent of upper troughing that exists over much of the Plains is forecast to advance eastward across the southern High Plains this afternoon. Initial development over the higher terrain of north-central into northeast NM should occur in a modest low-level upslope flow regime, with steep lapse rates aloft contributing to moderate instability. Weak low-level winds will gradually veer to west-northwesterly and modestly strengthen with height through mid/upper levels, supporting modest deep-layer shear and some updraft organization. Isolated severe hail may occur with initially more cellular development across the southern High Plains, before some clustering potentially occurs late this afternoon/evening farther east into the TX Panhandle and northwest TX with more of a wind threat. While deep-layer shear will likely remain weak farther east across OK, the front/outflow boundary should aid in at least scattered thunderstorms developing with moderate to locally strong instability amid ample daytime heating. Isolated damaging winds via strong downbursts and marginally severe hail appear possible with the stronger cores given seasonably cool temperatures aloft (around -10C at 500 mb with the 12Z OUN observed sounding), and the Marginal Risk has been expanded eastward for this possibility. ...North Dakota into Northern Minnesota... Within upper troughing already established over the northern/central Plains and central Canada, a mid-level shortwave trough and related surface cold front are forecast to move east-southeastward over ND and northern MN through the period. Modest low-level moisture characterized by mid 50s to perhaps low 60s surface dewpoints should be present ahead of the front across these areas. Diurnal heating and modestly steepened lapse rates aloft should aid in the development of weak instability this afternoon. Thunderstorms should gradually increase in coverage along/ahead of the front this afternoon/evening as they spread eastward over parts of ND into northern MN. The stronger cells may produce marginally severe hail, with sufficient deep-layer shear present for some convective organization. With time, some clustering/upscale growth along the front appears probable, with isolated strong to severe gusts possible. The lack of stronger instability should tend to temper the overall severe threat. ...Missouri/Iowa... An MCV generated by overnight/early morning convection across the southern/central Plains should develop northeastward into parts of northern MO and IA by this afternoon. It remains unclear whether sufficient instability to support robust thunderstorms will be able to develop today ahead of this feature given ongoing convection and cloud debris. Regardless, some enhancement to the low/mid-level flow and related deep-layer shear could support updraft organization if surface-based thunderstorms can develop. Given the continued uncertainty regarding this potential, have held off on inclusion of low severe probabilities across this region with this update. ..Gleason/Leitman.. 08/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0746 AM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025 Valid 111300Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may pose some risk for severe winds and hail across parts of the southern Plains, and separately from North Dakota into northern Minnesota, mainly this afternoon and evening. ...Southern Plains... Convection has generally weakened this morning across eastern KS, with a outflow reinforced front advancing southward across the southern High Plains. This boundary is forecast to stall through the morning and early afternoon, and it will likely serve as a focus for renewed thunderstorm development later today. The southern extent of upper troughing that exists over much of the Plains is forecast to advance eastward across the southern High Plains this afternoon. Initial development over the higher terrain of north-central into northeast NM should occur in a modest low-level upslope flow regime, with steep lapse rates aloft contributing to moderate instability. Weak low-level winds will gradually veer to west-northwesterly and modestly strengthen with height through mid/upper levels, supporting modest deep-layer shear and some updraft organization. Isolated severe hail may occur with initially more cellular development across the southern High Plains, before some clustering potentially occurs late this afternoon/evening farther east into the TX Panhandle and northwest TX with more of a wind threat. While deep-layer shear will likely remain weak farther east across OK, the front/outflow boundary should aid in at least scattered thunderstorms developing with moderate to locally strong instability amid ample daytime heating. Isolated damaging winds via strong downbursts and marginally severe hail appear possible with the stronger cores given seasonably cool temperatures aloft (around -10C at 500 mb with the 12Z OUN observed sounding), and the Marginal Risk has been expanded eastward for this possibility. ...North Dakota into Northern Minnesota... Within upper troughing already established over the northern/central Plains and central Canada, a mid-level shortwave trough and related surface cold front are forecast to move east-southeastward over ND and northern MN through the period. Modest low-level moisture characterized by mid 50s to perhaps low 60s surface dewpoints should be present ahead of the front across these areas. Diurnal heating and modestly steepened lapse rates aloft should aid in the development of weak instability this afternoon. Thunderstorms should gradually increase in coverage along/ahead of the front this afternoon/evening as they spread eastward over parts of ND into northern MN. The stronger cells may produce marginally severe hail, with sufficient deep-layer shear present for some convective organization. With time, some clustering/upscale growth along the front appears probable, with isolated strong to severe gusts possible. The lack of stronger instability should tend to temper the overall severe threat. ...Missouri/Iowa... An MCV generated by overnight/early morning convection across the southern/central Plains should develop northeastward into parts of northern MO and IA by this afternoon. It remains unclear whether sufficient instability to support robust thunderstorms will be able to develop today ahead of this feature given ongoing convection and cloud debris. Regardless, some enhancement to the low/mid-level flow and related deep-layer shear could support updraft organization if surface-based thunderstorms can develop. Given the continued uncertainty regarding this potential, have held off on inclusion of low severe probabilities across this region with this update. ..Gleason/Leitman.. 08/11/2025 Read more

WW 0587 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 587 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 W END TO 15 SSW ICT TO 30 ENE HUT. ..LEITMAN..08/11/25 ATTN...WFO...DDC...ICT...OUN...TSA... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 587 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC015-019-035-049-073-125-191-111040- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUTLER CHAUTAUQUA COWLEY ELK GREENWOOD MONTGOMERY SUMNER OKC047-053-071-103-105-113-117-147-111040- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE GARFIELD GRANT KAY NOBLE NOWATA OSAGE PAWNEE WASHINGTON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0587 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 587 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 W END TO 15 SSW ICT TO 30 ENE HUT. ..LEITMAN..08/11/25 ATTN...WFO...DDC...ICT...OUN...TSA... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 587 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC015-019-035-049-073-125-191-111040- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUTLER CHAUTAUQUA COWLEY ELK GREENWOOD MONTGOMERY SUMNER OKC047-053-071-103-105-113-117-147-111040- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE GARFIELD GRANT KAY NOBLE NOWATA OSAGE PAWNEE WASHINGTON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 587 SEVERE TSTM KS OK 110430Z - 111100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 587 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 PM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southern Kansas Northern Oklahoma * Effective this Sunday night and Monday morning from 1130 PM until 600 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Scattered severe storms will persist near the Kansas/Oklahoma border vicinity into the overnight, including the potential that a developing cluster across southwest Kansas may further organize and intensify with some increase in wind damage potential as it moves eastward. An episodic risk for large hail will also exist. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles north and south of a line from 55 miles west of Medicine Lodge KS to 25 miles north of Bartlesville OK. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 586... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 28030. ...Guyer Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 AM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025 Valid 141200Z - 191200Z ...DISCUSSION... On Thursday/D4, a shortwave trough is forecast to move from MT into the northern Plains, with primary upper low well to the north. A surface trough and cold front should push eastward across the Dakotas as well, and extend roughly from MN into NE by Friday/D5 morning. Model spread is high regarding the amount of moisture return and instability, with some models likely over-estimating real instability. In any case, storms appear most likely from ND into northern MN, beneath 50+ kt midlevel westerlies. As such, a 15% severe area has been introduced. This wave will progress east/northeastward on Friday/D5, with a front trailing southwestward perhaps from Lake Superior across WI/MN and toward NE. A moist and unstable air mass will remain near and south of any such boundary, but the position of said boundary may depend on storms from the previous night, or possibly a continuation of such storms. Predictability is therefore low on Friday/D5. Beyond this time frame, it appears the storm track will shift northward into Canada, with upper ridging over much of the CONUS. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 AM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025 Valid 141200Z - 191200Z ...DISCUSSION... On Thursday/D4, a shortwave trough is forecast to move from MT into the northern Plains, with primary upper low well to the north. A surface trough and cold front should push eastward across the Dakotas as well, and extend roughly from MN into NE by Friday/D5 morning. Model spread is high regarding the amount of moisture return and instability, with some models likely over-estimating real instability. In any case, storms appear most likely from ND into northern MN, beneath 50+ kt midlevel westerlies. As such, a 15% severe area has been introduced. This wave will progress east/northeastward on Friday/D5, with a front trailing southwestward perhaps from Lake Superior across WI/MN and toward NE. A moist and unstable air mass will remain near and south of any such boundary, but the position of said boundary may depend on storms from the previous night, or possibly a continuation of such storms. Predictability is therefore low on Friday/D5. Beyond this time frame, it appears the storm track will shift northward into Canada, with upper ridging over much of the CONUS. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 AM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025 Valid 141200Z - 191200Z ...DISCUSSION... On Thursday/D4, a shortwave trough is forecast to move from MT into the northern Plains, with primary upper low well to the north. A surface trough and cold front should push eastward across the Dakotas as well, and extend roughly from MN into NE by Friday/D5 morning. Model spread is high regarding the amount of moisture return and instability, with some models likely over-estimating real instability. In any case, storms appear most likely from ND into northern MN, beneath 50+ kt midlevel westerlies. As such, a 15% severe area has been introduced. This wave will progress east/northeastward on Friday/D5, with a front trailing southwestward perhaps from Lake Superior across WI/MN and toward NE. A moist and unstable air mass will remain near and south of any such boundary, but the position of said boundary may depend on storms from the previous night, or possibly a continuation of such storms. Predictability is therefore low on Friday/D5. Beyond this time frame, it appears the storm track will shift northward into Canada, with upper ridging over much of the CONUS. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 AM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025 Valid 141200Z - 191200Z ...DISCUSSION... On Thursday/D4, a shortwave trough is forecast to move from MT into the northern Plains, with primary upper low well to the north. A surface trough and cold front should push eastward across the Dakotas as well, and extend roughly from MN into NE by Friday/D5 morning. Model spread is high regarding the amount of moisture return and instability, with some models likely over-estimating real instability. In any case, storms appear most likely from ND into northern MN, beneath 50+ kt midlevel westerlies. As such, a 15% severe area has been introduced. This wave will progress east/northeastward on Friday/D5, with a front trailing southwestward perhaps from Lake Superior across WI/MN and toward NE. A moist and unstable air mass will remain near and south of any such boundary, but the position of said boundary may depend on storms from the previous night, or possibly a continuation of such storms. Predictability is therefore low on Friday/D5. Beyond this time frame, it appears the storm track will shift northward into Canada, with upper ridging over much of the CONUS. Read more