Severe Storms

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0212 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z A small Elevated area was introduced this outlook cycle. The latest high-resolution guidance (mainly HREF/RAP) shows an uptick in the potential for a brief period of wind/RH combos supporting Elevated fire-weather conditions across parts of KS/OK, amid fuels that remain highly receptive to large-fire spread. Otherwise, the balance of the previous forecast remains on track. See the discussion below for more details. ..Karstens.. 03/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0208 AM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level flow will become increasingly amplified Monday as ridging builds over the West and a broad trough deepens over the eastern CONUS. Strong northwesterly flow behind the trough will aid in gusty surface winds behind a cold front moving through the Appalachians. Some localized dry and breezy conditions are possible over parts of the southern Plains and lee of the Appalachians, but widespread fire concerns are not expected. ...OK and KS... Behind the cold front, low-level flow will gradually turn more southwesterly through the morning as a second weak surface low passes from the eastern Plains into the Midwest. While surface winds are not exacted to be overly strong (generally 10-15 mph), they will briefly overlap with areas of quite low dewpoints in the teens to low 20s F. With diurnal RH minimums below 20%, a few hours of locally elevated fire-weather conditions appear possible within dry fuels. An elevated area may be considered should winds trend stronger within the dry return flow regime. ...Appalachians... A cold front will move eastward over the Appalachians with isolated showers and some thunderstorms early Monday. Downslope winds will increases behind the front as it moves eastward over parts of VA, eastern TN and the western Carolinas. Westerly gusts may reach 10-20 mph and briefly overlap with RH below 30%. Given recent fire activity and exceptionally dry area fuels, this may support brief elevated fire-weather conditions. However, uncertainties on wetting rainfall within fuels and the overlap of potential dry and windy conditions will preclude an Elevated area for now. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0212 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z A small Elevated area was introduced this outlook cycle. The latest high-resolution guidance (mainly HREF/RAP) shows an uptick in the potential for a brief period of wind/RH combos supporting Elevated fire-weather conditions across parts of KS/OK, amid fuels that remain highly receptive to large-fire spread. Otherwise, the balance of the previous forecast remains on track. See the discussion below for more details. ..Karstens.. 03/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0208 AM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level flow will become increasingly amplified Monday as ridging builds over the West and a broad trough deepens over the eastern CONUS. Strong northwesterly flow behind the trough will aid in gusty surface winds behind a cold front moving through the Appalachians. Some localized dry and breezy conditions are possible over parts of the southern Plains and lee of the Appalachians, but widespread fire concerns are not expected. ...OK and KS... Behind the cold front, low-level flow will gradually turn more southwesterly through the morning as a second weak surface low passes from the eastern Plains into the Midwest. While surface winds are not exacted to be overly strong (generally 10-15 mph), they will briefly overlap with areas of quite low dewpoints in the teens to low 20s F. With diurnal RH minimums below 20%, a few hours of locally elevated fire-weather conditions appear possible within dry fuels. An elevated area may be considered should winds trend stronger within the dry return flow regime. ...Appalachians... A cold front will move eastward over the Appalachians with isolated showers and some thunderstorms early Monday. Downslope winds will increases behind the front as it moves eastward over parts of VA, eastern TN and the western Carolinas. Westerly gusts may reach 10-20 mph and briefly overlap with RH below 30%. Given recent fire activity and exceptionally dry area fuels, this may support brief elevated fire-weather conditions. However, uncertainties on wetting rainfall within fuels and the overlap of potential dry and windy conditions will preclude an Elevated area for now. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0212 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z A small Elevated area was introduced this outlook cycle. The latest high-resolution guidance (mainly HREF/RAP) shows an uptick in the potential for a brief period of wind/RH combos supporting Elevated fire-weather conditions across parts of KS/OK, amid fuels that remain highly receptive to large-fire spread. Otherwise, the balance of the previous forecast remains on track. See the discussion below for more details. ..Karstens.. 03/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0208 AM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level flow will become increasingly amplified Monday as ridging builds over the West and a broad trough deepens over the eastern CONUS. Strong northwesterly flow behind the trough will aid in gusty surface winds behind a cold front moving through the Appalachians. Some localized dry and breezy conditions are possible over parts of the southern Plains and lee of the Appalachians, but widespread fire concerns are not expected. ...OK and KS... Behind the cold front, low-level flow will gradually turn more southwesterly through the morning as a second weak surface low passes from the eastern Plains into the Midwest. While surface winds are not exacted to be overly strong (generally 10-15 mph), they will briefly overlap with areas of quite low dewpoints in the teens to low 20s F. With diurnal RH minimums below 20%, a few hours of locally elevated fire-weather conditions appear possible within dry fuels. An elevated area may be considered should winds trend stronger within the dry return flow regime. ...Appalachians... A cold front will move eastward over the Appalachians with isolated showers and some thunderstorms early Monday. Downslope winds will increases behind the front as it moves eastward over parts of VA, eastern TN and the western Carolinas. Westerly gusts may reach 10-20 mph and briefly overlap with RH below 30%. Given recent fire activity and exceptionally dry area fuels, this may support brief elevated fire-weather conditions. However, uncertainties on wetting rainfall within fuels and the overlap of potential dry and windy conditions will preclude an Elevated area for now. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0212 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z A small Elevated area was introduced this outlook cycle. The latest high-resolution guidance (mainly HREF/RAP) shows an uptick in the potential for a brief period of wind/RH combos supporting Elevated fire-weather conditions across parts of KS/OK, amid fuels that remain highly receptive to large-fire spread. Otherwise, the balance of the previous forecast remains on track. See the discussion below for more details. ..Karstens.. 03/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0208 AM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level flow will become increasingly amplified Monday as ridging builds over the West and a broad trough deepens over the eastern CONUS. Strong northwesterly flow behind the trough will aid in gusty surface winds behind a cold front moving through the Appalachians. Some localized dry and breezy conditions are possible over parts of the southern Plains and lee of the Appalachians, but widespread fire concerns are not expected. ...OK and KS... Behind the cold front, low-level flow will gradually turn more southwesterly through the morning as a second weak surface low passes from the eastern Plains into the Midwest. While surface winds are not exacted to be overly strong (generally 10-15 mph), they will briefly overlap with areas of quite low dewpoints in the teens to low 20s F. With diurnal RH minimums below 20%, a few hours of locally elevated fire-weather conditions appear possible within dry fuels. An elevated area may be considered should winds trend stronger within the dry return flow regime. ...Appalachians... A cold front will move eastward over the Appalachians with isolated showers and some thunderstorms early Monday. Downslope winds will increases behind the front as it moves eastward over parts of VA, eastern TN and the western Carolinas. Westerly gusts may reach 10-20 mph and briefly overlap with RH below 30%. Given recent fire activity and exceptionally dry area fuels, this may support brief elevated fire-weather conditions. However, uncertainties on wetting rainfall within fuels and the overlap of potential dry and windy conditions will preclude an Elevated area for now. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0212 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z A small Elevated area was introduced this outlook cycle. The latest high-resolution guidance (mainly HREF/RAP) shows an uptick in the potential for a brief period of wind/RH combos supporting Elevated fire-weather conditions across parts of KS/OK, amid fuels that remain highly receptive to large-fire spread. Otherwise, the balance of the previous forecast remains on track. See the discussion below for more details. ..Karstens.. 03/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0208 AM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level flow will become increasingly amplified Monday as ridging builds over the West and a broad trough deepens over the eastern CONUS. Strong northwesterly flow behind the trough will aid in gusty surface winds behind a cold front moving through the Appalachians. Some localized dry and breezy conditions are possible over parts of the southern Plains and lee of the Appalachians, but widespread fire concerns are not expected. ...OK and KS... Behind the cold front, low-level flow will gradually turn more southwesterly through the morning as a second weak surface low passes from the eastern Plains into the Midwest. While surface winds are not exacted to be overly strong (generally 10-15 mph), they will briefly overlap with areas of quite low dewpoints in the teens to low 20s F. With diurnal RH minimums below 20%, a few hours of locally elevated fire-weather conditions appear possible within dry fuels. An elevated area may be considered should winds trend stronger within the dry return flow regime. ...Appalachians... A cold front will move eastward over the Appalachians with isolated showers and some thunderstorms early Monday. Downslope winds will increases behind the front as it moves eastward over parts of VA, eastern TN and the western Carolinas. Westerly gusts may reach 10-20 mph and briefly overlap with RH below 30%. Given recent fire activity and exceptionally dry area fuels, this may support brief elevated fire-weather conditions. However, uncertainties on wetting rainfall within fuels and the overlap of potential dry and windy conditions will preclude an Elevated area for now. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0212 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z A small Elevated area was introduced this outlook cycle. The latest high-resolution guidance (mainly HREF/RAP) shows an uptick in the potential for a brief period of wind/RH combos supporting Elevated fire-weather conditions across parts of KS/OK, amid fuels that remain highly receptive to large-fire spread. Otherwise, the balance of the previous forecast remains on track. See the discussion below for more details. ..Karstens.. 03/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0208 AM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level flow will become increasingly amplified Monday as ridging builds over the West and a broad trough deepens over the eastern CONUS. Strong northwesterly flow behind the trough will aid in gusty surface winds behind a cold front moving through the Appalachians. Some localized dry and breezy conditions are possible over parts of the southern Plains and lee of the Appalachians, but widespread fire concerns are not expected. ...OK and KS... Behind the cold front, low-level flow will gradually turn more southwesterly through the morning as a second weak surface low passes from the eastern Plains into the Midwest. While surface winds are not exacted to be overly strong (generally 10-15 mph), they will briefly overlap with areas of quite low dewpoints in the teens to low 20s F. With diurnal RH minimums below 20%, a few hours of locally elevated fire-weather conditions appear possible within dry fuels. An elevated area may be considered should winds trend stronger within the dry return flow regime. ...Appalachians... A cold front will move eastward over the Appalachians with isolated showers and some thunderstorms early Monday. Downslope winds will increases behind the front as it moves eastward over parts of VA, eastern TN and the western Carolinas. Westerly gusts may reach 10-20 mph and briefly overlap with RH below 30%. Given recent fire activity and exceptionally dry area fuels, this may support brief elevated fire-weather conditions. However, uncertainties on wetting rainfall within fuels and the overlap of potential dry and windy conditions will preclude an Elevated area for now. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0212 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z A small Elevated area was introduced this outlook cycle. The latest high-resolution guidance (mainly HREF/RAP) shows an uptick in the potential for a brief period of wind/RH combos supporting Elevated fire-weather conditions across parts of KS/OK, amid fuels that remain highly receptive to large-fire spread. Otherwise, the balance of the previous forecast remains on track. See the discussion below for more details. ..Karstens.. 03/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0208 AM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level flow will become increasingly amplified Monday as ridging builds over the West and a broad trough deepens over the eastern CONUS. Strong northwesterly flow behind the trough will aid in gusty surface winds behind a cold front moving through the Appalachians. Some localized dry and breezy conditions are possible over parts of the southern Plains and lee of the Appalachians, but widespread fire concerns are not expected. ...OK and KS... Behind the cold front, low-level flow will gradually turn more southwesterly through the morning as a second weak surface low passes from the eastern Plains into the Midwest. While surface winds are not exacted to be overly strong (generally 10-15 mph), they will briefly overlap with areas of quite low dewpoints in the teens to low 20s F. With diurnal RH minimums below 20%, a few hours of locally elevated fire-weather conditions appear possible within dry fuels. An elevated area may be considered should winds trend stronger within the dry return flow regime. ...Appalachians... A cold front will move eastward over the Appalachians with isolated showers and some thunderstorms early Monday. Downslope winds will increases behind the front as it moves eastward over parts of VA, eastern TN and the western Carolinas. Westerly gusts may reach 10-20 mph and briefly overlap with RH below 30%. Given recent fire activity and exceptionally dry area fuels, this may support brief elevated fire-weather conditions. However, uncertainties on wetting rainfall within fuels and the overlap of potential dry and windy conditions will preclude an Elevated area for now. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0212 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z A small Elevated area was introduced this outlook cycle. The latest high-resolution guidance (mainly HREF/RAP) shows an uptick in the potential for a brief period of wind/RH combos supporting Elevated fire-weather conditions across parts of KS/OK, amid fuels that remain highly receptive to large-fire spread. Otherwise, the balance of the previous forecast remains on track. See the discussion below for more details. ..Karstens.. 03/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0208 AM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level flow will become increasingly amplified Monday as ridging builds over the West and a broad trough deepens over the eastern CONUS. Strong northwesterly flow behind the trough will aid in gusty surface winds behind a cold front moving through the Appalachians. Some localized dry and breezy conditions are possible over parts of the southern Plains and lee of the Appalachians, but widespread fire concerns are not expected. ...OK and KS... Behind the cold front, low-level flow will gradually turn more southwesterly through the morning as a second weak surface low passes from the eastern Plains into the Midwest. While surface winds are not exacted to be overly strong (generally 10-15 mph), they will briefly overlap with areas of quite low dewpoints in the teens to low 20s F. With diurnal RH minimums below 20%, a few hours of locally elevated fire-weather conditions appear possible within dry fuels. An elevated area may be considered should winds trend stronger within the dry return flow regime. ...Appalachians... A cold front will move eastward over the Appalachians with isolated showers and some thunderstorms early Monday. Downslope winds will increases behind the front as it moves eastward over parts of VA, eastern TN and the western Carolinas. Westerly gusts may reach 10-20 mph and briefly overlap with RH below 30%. Given recent fire activity and exceptionally dry area fuels, this may support brief elevated fire-weather conditions. However, uncertainties on wetting rainfall within fuels and the overlap of potential dry and windy conditions will preclude an Elevated area for now. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Risk for severe weather appears low at this time across the U.S. on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... An amplified upper pattern will persist on Tuesday, with an upper ridge over the West and an upper trough over the East. Toward the end of the period, an upper shortwave trough will approach the Pacific Northwest coast and isolated thunderstorms will be possible as cooling aloft allows for modest destabilization amid increasing southwesterly deep-layer flow. Isolated diurnal thunderstorm activity is also possible across portions of the FL Peninsula where strong heating and modest boundary layer moisture will support at least weak destabilization ahead of a southward sagging front. Large-scale ascent will be weak, limiting storm coverage, but some potential for locally gusty winds will be possible. Across the southern Plains, a surface front will stall in the vicinity of the TX Panhandle, eastward through the Red River Valley and ArkLaTex region. Daytime heating and boundary layer destabilization may be sufficient for a conditional risk of afternoon thunderstorm development. However, large-scale forcing will remain weak and some midlevel inhibition may preclude diurnal thunderstorm activity. Overnight, a modest low-level southwesterly jet will develop beneath increasing northwest flow aloft. Isolated thunderstorms may develop near the surface boundary. Some risk for isolated hail could accompany this activity, but confidence in this scenario is low, precluding severe probabilities at this time. ..Leitman.. 03/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Risk for severe weather appears low at this time across the U.S. on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... An amplified upper pattern will persist on Tuesday, with an upper ridge over the West and an upper trough over the East. Toward the end of the period, an upper shortwave trough will approach the Pacific Northwest coast and isolated thunderstorms will be possible as cooling aloft allows for modest destabilization amid increasing southwesterly deep-layer flow. Isolated diurnal thunderstorm activity is also possible across portions of the FL Peninsula where strong heating and modest boundary layer moisture will support at least weak destabilization ahead of a southward sagging front. Large-scale ascent will be weak, limiting storm coverage, but some potential for locally gusty winds will be possible. Across the southern Plains, a surface front will stall in the vicinity of the TX Panhandle, eastward through the Red River Valley and ArkLaTex region. Daytime heating and boundary layer destabilization may be sufficient for a conditional risk of afternoon thunderstorm development. However, large-scale forcing will remain weak and some midlevel inhibition may preclude diurnal thunderstorm activity. Overnight, a modest low-level southwesterly jet will develop beneath increasing northwest flow aloft. Isolated thunderstorms may develop near the surface boundary. Some risk for isolated hail could accompany this activity, but confidence in this scenario is low, precluding severe probabilities at this time. ..Leitman.. 03/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Risk for severe weather appears low at this time across the U.S. on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... An amplified upper pattern will persist on Tuesday, with an upper ridge over the West and an upper trough over the East. Toward the end of the period, an upper shortwave trough will approach the Pacific Northwest coast and isolated thunderstorms will be possible as cooling aloft allows for modest destabilization amid increasing southwesterly deep-layer flow. Isolated diurnal thunderstorm activity is also possible across portions of the FL Peninsula where strong heating and modest boundary layer moisture will support at least weak destabilization ahead of a southward sagging front. Large-scale ascent will be weak, limiting storm coverage, but some potential for locally gusty winds will be possible. Across the southern Plains, a surface front will stall in the vicinity of the TX Panhandle, eastward through the Red River Valley and ArkLaTex region. Daytime heating and boundary layer destabilization may be sufficient for a conditional risk of afternoon thunderstorm development. However, large-scale forcing will remain weak and some midlevel inhibition may preclude diurnal thunderstorm activity. Overnight, a modest low-level southwesterly jet will develop beneath increasing northwest flow aloft. Isolated thunderstorms may develop near the surface boundary. Some risk for isolated hail could accompany this activity, but confidence in this scenario is low, precluding severe probabilities at this time. ..Leitman.. 03/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Risk for severe weather appears low at this time across the U.S. on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... An amplified upper pattern will persist on Tuesday, with an upper ridge over the West and an upper trough over the East. Toward the end of the period, an upper shortwave trough will approach the Pacific Northwest coast and isolated thunderstorms will be possible as cooling aloft allows for modest destabilization amid increasing southwesterly deep-layer flow. Isolated diurnal thunderstorm activity is also possible across portions of the FL Peninsula where strong heating and modest boundary layer moisture will support at least weak destabilization ahead of a southward sagging front. Large-scale ascent will be weak, limiting storm coverage, but some potential for locally gusty winds will be possible. Across the southern Plains, a surface front will stall in the vicinity of the TX Panhandle, eastward through the Red River Valley and ArkLaTex region. Daytime heating and boundary layer destabilization may be sufficient for a conditional risk of afternoon thunderstorm development. However, large-scale forcing will remain weak and some midlevel inhibition may preclude diurnal thunderstorm activity. Overnight, a modest low-level southwesterly jet will develop beneath increasing northwest flow aloft. Isolated thunderstorms may develop near the surface boundary. Some risk for isolated hail could accompany this activity, but confidence in this scenario is low, precluding severe probabilities at this time. ..Leitman.. 03/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Risk for severe weather appears low at this time across the U.S. on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... An amplified upper pattern will persist on Tuesday, with an upper ridge over the West and an upper trough over the East. Toward the end of the period, an upper shortwave trough will approach the Pacific Northwest coast and isolated thunderstorms will be possible as cooling aloft allows for modest destabilization amid increasing southwesterly deep-layer flow. Isolated diurnal thunderstorm activity is also possible across portions of the FL Peninsula where strong heating and modest boundary layer moisture will support at least weak destabilization ahead of a southward sagging front. Large-scale ascent will be weak, limiting storm coverage, but some potential for locally gusty winds will be possible. Across the southern Plains, a surface front will stall in the vicinity of the TX Panhandle, eastward through the Red River Valley and ArkLaTex region. Daytime heating and boundary layer destabilization may be sufficient for a conditional risk of afternoon thunderstorm development. However, large-scale forcing will remain weak and some midlevel inhibition may preclude diurnal thunderstorm activity. Overnight, a modest low-level southwesterly jet will develop beneath increasing northwest flow aloft. Isolated thunderstorms may develop near the surface boundary. Some risk for isolated hail could accompany this activity, but confidence in this scenario is low, precluding severe probabilities at this time. ..Leitman.. 03/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Risk for severe weather appears low at this time across the U.S. on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... An amplified upper pattern will persist on Tuesday, with an upper ridge over the West and an upper trough over the East. Toward the end of the period, an upper shortwave trough will approach the Pacific Northwest coast and isolated thunderstorms will be possible as cooling aloft allows for modest destabilization amid increasing southwesterly deep-layer flow. Isolated diurnal thunderstorm activity is also possible across portions of the FL Peninsula where strong heating and modest boundary layer moisture will support at least weak destabilization ahead of a southward sagging front. Large-scale ascent will be weak, limiting storm coverage, but some potential for locally gusty winds will be possible. Across the southern Plains, a surface front will stall in the vicinity of the TX Panhandle, eastward through the Red River Valley and ArkLaTex region. Daytime heating and boundary layer destabilization may be sufficient for a conditional risk of afternoon thunderstorm development. However, large-scale forcing will remain weak and some midlevel inhibition may preclude diurnal thunderstorm activity. Overnight, a modest low-level southwesterly jet will develop beneath increasing northwest flow aloft. Isolated thunderstorms may develop near the surface boundary. Some risk for isolated hail could accompany this activity, but confidence in this scenario is low, precluding severe probabilities at this time. ..Leitman.. 03/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Risk for severe weather appears low at this time across the U.S. on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... An amplified upper pattern will persist on Tuesday, with an upper ridge over the West and an upper trough over the East. Toward the end of the period, an upper shortwave trough will approach the Pacific Northwest coast and isolated thunderstorms will be possible as cooling aloft allows for modest destabilization amid increasing southwesterly deep-layer flow. Isolated diurnal thunderstorm activity is also possible across portions of the FL Peninsula where strong heating and modest boundary layer moisture will support at least weak destabilization ahead of a southward sagging front. Large-scale ascent will be weak, limiting storm coverage, but some potential for locally gusty winds will be possible. Across the southern Plains, a surface front will stall in the vicinity of the TX Panhandle, eastward through the Red River Valley and ArkLaTex region. Daytime heating and boundary layer destabilization may be sufficient for a conditional risk of afternoon thunderstorm development. However, large-scale forcing will remain weak and some midlevel inhibition may preclude diurnal thunderstorm activity. Overnight, a modest low-level southwesterly jet will develop beneath increasing northwest flow aloft. Isolated thunderstorms may develop near the surface boundary. Some risk for isolated hail could accompany this activity, but confidence in this scenario is low, precluding severe probabilities at this time. ..Leitman.. 03/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Risk for severe weather appears low at this time across the U.S. on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... An amplified upper pattern will persist on Tuesday, with an upper ridge over the West and an upper trough over the East. Toward the end of the period, an upper shortwave trough will approach the Pacific Northwest coast and isolated thunderstorms will be possible as cooling aloft allows for modest destabilization amid increasing southwesterly deep-layer flow. Isolated diurnal thunderstorm activity is also possible across portions of the FL Peninsula where strong heating and modest boundary layer moisture will support at least weak destabilization ahead of a southward sagging front. Large-scale ascent will be weak, limiting storm coverage, but some potential for locally gusty winds will be possible. Across the southern Plains, a surface front will stall in the vicinity of the TX Panhandle, eastward through the Red River Valley and ArkLaTex region. Daytime heating and boundary layer destabilization may be sufficient for a conditional risk of afternoon thunderstorm development. However, large-scale forcing will remain weak and some midlevel inhibition may preclude diurnal thunderstorm activity. Overnight, a modest low-level southwesterly jet will develop beneath increasing northwest flow aloft. Isolated thunderstorms may develop near the surface boundary. Some risk for isolated hail could accompany this activity, but confidence in this scenario is low, precluding severe probabilities at this time. ..Leitman.. 03/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Risk for severe weather appears low at this time across the U.S. on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... An amplified upper pattern will persist on Tuesday, with an upper ridge over the West and an upper trough over the East. Toward the end of the period, an upper shortwave trough will approach the Pacific Northwest coast and isolated thunderstorms will be possible as cooling aloft allows for modest destabilization amid increasing southwesterly deep-layer flow. Isolated diurnal thunderstorm activity is also possible across portions of the FL Peninsula where strong heating and modest boundary layer moisture will support at least weak destabilization ahead of a southward sagging front. Large-scale ascent will be weak, limiting storm coverage, but some potential for locally gusty winds will be possible. Across the southern Plains, a surface front will stall in the vicinity of the TX Panhandle, eastward through the Red River Valley and ArkLaTex region. Daytime heating and boundary layer destabilization may be sufficient for a conditional risk of afternoon thunderstorm development. However, large-scale forcing will remain weak and some midlevel inhibition may preclude diurnal thunderstorm activity. Overnight, a modest low-level southwesterly jet will develop beneath increasing northwest flow aloft. Isolated thunderstorms may develop near the surface boundary. Some risk for isolated hail could accompany this activity, but confidence in this scenario is low, precluding severe probabilities at this time. ..Leitman.. 03/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Risk for severe weather appears low at this time across the U.S. on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... An amplified upper pattern will persist on Tuesday, with an upper ridge over the West and an upper trough over the East. Toward the end of the period, an upper shortwave trough will approach the Pacific Northwest coast and isolated thunderstorms will be possible as cooling aloft allows for modest destabilization amid increasing southwesterly deep-layer flow. Isolated diurnal thunderstorm activity is also possible across portions of the FL Peninsula where strong heating and modest boundary layer moisture will support at least weak destabilization ahead of a southward sagging front. Large-scale ascent will be weak, limiting storm coverage, but some potential for locally gusty winds will be possible. Across the southern Plains, a surface front will stall in the vicinity of the TX Panhandle, eastward through the Red River Valley and ArkLaTex region. Daytime heating and boundary layer destabilization may be sufficient for a conditional risk of afternoon thunderstorm development. However, large-scale forcing will remain weak and some midlevel inhibition may preclude diurnal thunderstorm activity. Overnight, a modest low-level southwesterly jet will develop beneath increasing northwest flow aloft. Isolated thunderstorms may develop near the surface boundary. Some risk for isolated hail could accompany this activity, but confidence in this scenario is low, precluding severe probabilities at this time. ..Leitman.. 03/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Risk for severe weather appears low at this time across the U.S. on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... An amplified upper pattern will persist on Tuesday, with an upper ridge over the West and an upper trough over the East. Toward the end of the period, an upper shortwave trough will approach the Pacific Northwest coast and isolated thunderstorms will be possible as cooling aloft allows for modest destabilization amid increasing southwesterly deep-layer flow. Isolated diurnal thunderstorm activity is also possible across portions of the FL Peninsula where strong heating and modest boundary layer moisture will support at least weak destabilization ahead of a southward sagging front. Large-scale ascent will be weak, limiting storm coverage, but some potential for locally gusty winds will be possible. Across the southern Plains, a surface front will stall in the vicinity of the TX Panhandle, eastward through the Red River Valley and ArkLaTex region. Daytime heating and boundary layer destabilization may be sufficient for a conditional risk of afternoon thunderstorm development. However, large-scale forcing will remain weak and some midlevel inhibition may preclude diurnal thunderstorm activity. Overnight, a modest low-level southwesterly jet will develop beneath increasing northwest flow aloft. Isolated thunderstorms may develop near the surface boundary. Some risk for isolated hail could accompany this activity, but confidence in this scenario is low, precluding severe probabilities at this time. ..Leitman.. 03/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Risk for severe weather appears low at this time across the U.S. on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... An amplified upper pattern will persist on Tuesday, with an upper ridge over the West and an upper trough over the East. Toward the end of the period, an upper shortwave trough will approach the Pacific Northwest coast and isolated thunderstorms will be possible as cooling aloft allows for modest destabilization amid increasing southwesterly deep-layer flow. Isolated diurnal thunderstorm activity is also possible across portions of the FL Peninsula where strong heating and modest boundary layer moisture will support at least weak destabilization ahead of a southward sagging front. Large-scale ascent will be weak, limiting storm coverage, but some potential for locally gusty winds will be possible. Across the southern Plains, a surface front will stall in the vicinity of the TX Panhandle, eastward through the Red River Valley and ArkLaTex region. Daytime heating and boundary layer destabilization may be sufficient for a conditional risk of afternoon thunderstorm development. However, large-scale forcing will remain weak and some midlevel inhibition may preclude diurnal thunderstorm activity. Overnight, a modest low-level southwesterly jet will develop beneath increasing northwest flow aloft. Isolated thunderstorms may develop near the surface boundary. Some risk for isolated hail could accompany this activity, but confidence in this scenario is low, precluding severe probabilities at this time. ..Leitman.. 03/23/2025 Read more