Severe Storms

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 AM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND FROM CENTRAL TEXAS INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Gusty winds, along with some risk for hail, will accompany isolated thunderstorms across the southeastern Florida Peninsula, and parts of southeast Oklahoma into central Texas. ...Southern FL Peninsula... Upper trough is firmly established over the eastern U.S. early this morning. Along the southern fringe of this wave, a low-latitude short-wave trough is digging east-southeast toward the southern FL Peninsula. Latest model guidance suggests seasonally cool mid-level temperatures will spread across this region with -13C at 500mb forecast by mid day as surface temperatures warm into the lower 80s. Early-afternoon soundings exhibit substantial SBCAPE with steep mid-level lapse rates. While wind profiles will remain somewhat modest, solenoidal influences should encourage isolated convection, some of which could be robust. Gusty winds, and perhaps some hail could be noted with this diurnally driven activity. ...Southeast Oklahoma/North Central-Central TX... Large-scale pattern is not forecast to change appreciably during the upcoming day1 period as ridging will dominate the western U.S. Northwesterly flow will be noted across the Plains and any embedded disturbances are currently weak and not particularly evident. Even so, while heights will gradually rise across this region, 2km wind field will gradually strengthen over the southern High Plains and some increase in PW is expected along the I35 corridor from central TX into southern OK by 26/00z. Strong boundary-layer heating is expected west of I35 and convective temperatures will be breached by late afternoon as readings rise through the mid 80s. Most HREF members suggest isolated, relatively high-based convection will evolve along this corridor. Gusty winds and some hail appear possible with this activity. After sunset, low-level warm advection should focus ascent from southeast OK into northeast TX. This elevated activity could also generate hail, and perhaps some wind gusts. ..Darrow/Lyons.. 03/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 AM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND FROM CENTRAL TEXAS INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Gusty winds, along with some risk for hail, will accompany isolated thunderstorms across the southeastern Florida Peninsula, and parts of southeast Oklahoma into central Texas. ...Southern FL Peninsula... Upper trough is firmly established over the eastern U.S. early this morning. Along the southern fringe of this wave, a low-latitude short-wave trough is digging east-southeast toward the southern FL Peninsula. Latest model guidance suggests seasonally cool mid-level temperatures will spread across this region with -13C at 500mb forecast by mid day as surface temperatures warm into the lower 80s. Early-afternoon soundings exhibit substantial SBCAPE with steep mid-level lapse rates. While wind profiles will remain somewhat modest, solenoidal influences should encourage isolated convection, some of which could be robust. Gusty winds, and perhaps some hail could be noted with this diurnally driven activity. ...Southeast Oklahoma/North Central-Central TX... Large-scale pattern is not forecast to change appreciably during the upcoming day1 period as ridging will dominate the western U.S. Northwesterly flow will be noted across the Plains and any embedded disturbances are currently weak and not particularly evident. Even so, while heights will gradually rise across this region, 2km wind field will gradually strengthen over the southern High Plains and some increase in PW is expected along the I35 corridor from central TX into southern OK by 26/00z. Strong boundary-layer heating is expected west of I35 and convective temperatures will be breached by late afternoon as readings rise through the mid 80s. Most HREF members suggest isolated, relatively high-based convection will evolve along this corridor. Gusty winds and some hail appear possible with this activity. After sunset, low-level warm advection should focus ascent from southeast OK into northeast TX. This elevated activity could also generate hail, and perhaps some wind gusts. ..Darrow/Lyons.. 03/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 AM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND FROM CENTRAL TEXAS INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Gusty winds, along with some risk for hail, will accompany isolated thunderstorms across the southeastern Florida Peninsula, and parts of southeast Oklahoma into central Texas. ...Southern FL Peninsula... Upper trough is firmly established over the eastern U.S. early this morning. Along the southern fringe of this wave, a low-latitude short-wave trough is digging east-southeast toward the southern FL Peninsula. Latest model guidance suggests seasonally cool mid-level temperatures will spread across this region with -13C at 500mb forecast by mid day as surface temperatures warm into the lower 80s. Early-afternoon soundings exhibit substantial SBCAPE with steep mid-level lapse rates. While wind profiles will remain somewhat modest, solenoidal influences should encourage isolated convection, some of which could be robust. Gusty winds, and perhaps some hail could be noted with this diurnally driven activity. ...Southeast Oklahoma/North Central-Central TX... Large-scale pattern is not forecast to change appreciably during the upcoming day1 period as ridging will dominate the western U.S. Northwesterly flow will be noted across the Plains and any embedded disturbances are currently weak and not particularly evident. Even so, while heights will gradually rise across this region, 2km wind field will gradually strengthen over the southern High Plains and some increase in PW is expected along the I35 corridor from central TX into southern OK by 26/00z. Strong boundary-layer heating is expected west of I35 and convective temperatures will be breached by late afternoon as readings rise through the mid 80s. Most HREF members suggest isolated, relatively high-based convection will evolve along this corridor. Gusty winds and some hail appear possible with this activity. After sunset, low-level warm advection should focus ascent from southeast OK into northeast TX. This elevated activity could also generate hail, and perhaps some wind gusts. ..Darrow/Lyons.. 03/25/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0742 PM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025 Valid 250100Z - 251200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm probabilities are low the rest of tonight. ...01z Update... Weak low-latitude short-wave trough, within the base of the longer wave, is ejecting across the eastern Gulf Basin early this evening. Substantial complex of storms is noted ahead of this feature, roughly 100mi west of the FL Gulf Coast. This activity should struggle to move onshore, though the leading edge with lightning may approach the coast before this complex weakens. Across the central Peninsula, isolated thunderstorm has developed over Osceola County along the wind shift; however, boundary-layer cooling is expected to result in weakening updrafts and the probability for thunderstorms after 01z appears too meager to warrant an outlook. ..Darrow.. 03/25/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0742 PM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025 Valid 250100Z - 251200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm probabilities are low the rest of tonight. ...01z Update... Weak low-latitude short-wave trough, within the base of the longer wave, is ejecting across the eastern Gulf Basin early this evening. Substantial complex of storms is noted ahead of this feature, roughly 100mi west of the FL Gulf Coast. This activity should struggle to move onshore, though the leading edge with lightning may approach the coast before this complex weakens. Across the central Peninsula, isolated thunderstorm has developed over Osceola County along the wind shift; however, boundary-layer cooling is expected to result in weakening updrafts and the probability for thunderstorms after 01z appears too meager to warrant an outlook. ..Darrow.. 03/25/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0742 PM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025 Valid 250100Z - 251200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm probabilities are low the rest of tonight. ...01z Update... Weak low-latitude short-wave trough, within the base of the longer wave, is ejecting across the eastern Gulf Basin early this evening. Substantial complex of storms is noted ahead of this feature, roughly 100mi west of the FL Gulf Coast. This activity should struggle to move onshore, though the leading edge with lightning may approach the coast before this complex weakens. Across the central Peninsula, isolated thunderstorm has developed over Osceola County along the wind shift; however, boundary-layer cooling is expected to result in weakening updrafts and the probability for thunderstorms after 01z appears too meager to warrant an outlook. ..Darrow.. 03/25/2025 Read more

No watches are valid as of Mon Mar 24 22:24:02 UTC 2025.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Mar 24 22:24:02 UTC 2025.

MD 0261 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN MAINE
Mesoscale Discussion 0261 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 PM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025 Areas affected...portions of eastern Maine Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 241846Z - 242215Z SUMMARY...Heavy snow will continue across eastern Maine for the next few hours, with 1 inch/hour snowfall rates possible. DISCUSSION...Ahead of an approaching stacked cyclone over the Great Lakes, low-level warm-air/moisture advection over eastern New England is providing increased ascent amid a sub-freezing troposphere. Saturation of the dendritic growth zone is supporting heavier snowfall, which has been observed over NH into southwest ME over the past couple of hours. Current thinking is that the primary snowband along the NH/ME border will continue to benefit from low-level convergence along an axis of 850-700 mb frontogenesis, which characterizes the nose of the stronger WAA within the dendritic growth zone. 1 inch/hour snowfall rates will be possible, as also shown by the consensus of the more recent high-resolution guidance. ..Squitieri.. 03/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX... LAT...LON 43457087 44037096 44657047 45666927 45936826 45636735 45076687 44606713 44216817 43756930 43457087 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 PM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 011200Z Fire weather concerns are expected to gradually return to the southern High Plains through the extended period. Long-range deterministic and ensemble guidance continues to show the gradual eastward translation of the upper ridge (currently over the western CONUS) through the middle of the week. By D5/Friday into D6/Saturday, an upper trough will begin to push into the Four Corners and southern High Plains, resulting in dry/windy conditions across a region with ERCs between the 80th to 95th percentile. Extended guidance hints that this may be the start of a more active upper-level regime featuring a series of progressive shortwave troughs across the southern U.S. heading into early next week. ...D3/Wednesday to D4/Thursday - New Mexico... A weak upper disturbance is expected to migrate into NM/west TX under the axis of the long-wave ridge by mid-week. Although the low-level mass response to this feature will be weak, northwestward warm/moist advection into eastern NM and west TX coupled with modest ascent is expected to promote isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms late D3/Wed into D4/Thur from central NM to western TX. On the western periphery of the moist plume, PWAT values between 0.5 to 0.75 inches should coincide with the coldest mid-level temperatures and promote sufficient MUCAPE (50-200 J/kg) for isolated thunderstorms. Dry, well-mixed boundary layers will limit rainfall amounts and support the potential for dry lightning strikes over a region with critically dry fuels. ...D5/Friday to D6/Saturday - southern High Plains... West/southwest winds are expected to strengthen through the day on D5/Friday across the Four Corners and southern High Plains amid surface pressure falls ahead of the approaching upper trough. Dry air advecting into the region will promote a swath of 15-20% RH coincident with 15-20 mph winds behind a sharpening lee trough/dryline. Elevated fire weather conditions appear likely with critical conditions possible depending on the intensity of surface low and resulting wind field. The upper trough is forecast to begin ejecting into the southern/central Plains on D5/Saturday with the attendant surface low and dryline shifting east through the day. Although there is some spread among guidance regarding the eastward progression of the dryline and wind magnitudes, the overall consensus among ensemble members is for widespread elevated to critical fire weather conditions across eastern NM into adjacent portions of TX. Although fuels are currently critically dry, rain chances in the preceding days may limit fuel availability/dryness to some degree. Given that this synoptic pattern matches typical critical fire weather regimes, higher risk probabilities will likely be warranted as fuel status uncertainty is reduced. ..Moore.. 03/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 PM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 011200Z Fire weather concerns are expected to gradually return to the southern High Plains through the extended period. Long-range deterministic and ensemble guidance continues to show the gradual eastward translation of the upper ridge (currently over the western CONUS) through the middle of the week. By D5/Friday into D6/Saturday, an upper trough will begin to push into the Four Corners and southern High Plains, resulting in dry/windy conditions across a region with ERCs between the 80th to 95th percentile. Extended guidance hints that this may be the start of a more active upper-level regime featuring a series of progressive shortwave troughs across the southern U.S. heading into early next week. ...D3/Wednesday to D4/Thursday - New Mexico... A weak upper disturbance is expected to migrate into NM/west TX under the axis of the long-wave ridge by mid-week. Although the low-level mass response to this feature will be weak, northwestward warm/moist advection into eastern NM and west TX coupled with modest ascent is expected to promote isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms late D3/Wed into D4/Thur from central NM to western TX. On the western periphery of the moist plume, PWAT values between 0.5 to 0.75 inches should coincide with the coldest mid-level temperatures and promote sufficient MUCAPE (50-200 J/kg) for isolated thunderstorms. Dry, well-mixed boundary layers will limit rainfall amounts and support the potential for dry lightning strikes over a region with critically dry fuels. ...D5/Friday to D6/Saturday - southern High Plains... West/southwest winds are expected to strengthen through the day on D5/Friday across the Four Corners and southern High Plains amid surface pressure falls ahead of the approaching upper trough. Dry air advecting into the region will promote a swath of 15-20% RH coincident with 15-20 mph winds behind a sharpening lee trough/dryline. Elevated fire weather conditions appear likely with critical conditions possible depending on the intensity of surface low and resulting wind field. The upper trough is forecast to begin ejecting into the southern/central Plains on D5/Saturday with the attendant surface low and dryline shifting east through the day. Although there is some spread among guidance regarding the eastward progression of the dryline and wind magnitudes, the overall consensus among ensemble members is for widespread elevated to critical fire weather conditions across eastern NM into adjacent portions of TX. Although fuels are currently critically dry, rain chances in the preceding days may limit fuel availability/dryness to some degree. Given that this synoptic pattern matches typical critical fire weather regimes, higher risk probabilities will likely be warranted as fuel status uncertainty is reduced. ..Moore.. 03/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 PM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 011200Z Fire weather concerns are expected to gradually return to the southern High Plains through the extended period. Long-range deterministic and ensemble guidance continues to show the gradual eastward translation of the upper ridge (currently over the western CONUS) through the middle of the week. By D5/Friday into D6/Saturday, an upper trough will begin to push into the Four Corners and southern High Plains, resulting in dry/windy conditions across a region with ERCs between the 80th to 95th percentile. Extended guidance hints that this may be the start of a more active upper-level regime featuring a series of progressive shortwave troughs across the southern U.S. heading into early next week. ...D3/Wednesday to D4/Thursday - New Mexico... A weak upper disturbance is expected to migrate into NM/west TX under the axis of the long-wave ridge by mid-week. Although the low-level mass response to this feature will be weak, northwestward warm/moist advection into eastern NM and west TX coupled with modest ascent is expected to promote isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms late D3/Wed into D4/Thur from central NM to western TX. On the western periphery of the moist plume, PWAT values between 0.5 to 0.75 inches should coincide with the coldest mid-level temperatures and promote sufficient MUCAPE (50-200 J/kg) for isolated thunderstorms. Dry, well-mixed boundary layers will limit rainfall amounts and support the potential for dry lightning strikes over a region with critically dry fuels. ...D5/Friday to D6/Saturday - southern High Plains... West/southwest winds are expected to strengthen through the day on D5/Friday across the Four Corners and southern High Plains amid surface pressure falls ahead of the approaching upper trough. Dry air advecting into the region will promote a swath of 15-20% RH coincident with 15-20 mph winds behind a sharpening lee trough/dryline. Elevated fire weather conditions appear likely with critical conditions possible depending on the intensity of surface low and resulting wind field. The upper trough is forecast to begin ejecting into the southern/central Plains on D5/Saturday with the attendant surface low and dryline shifting east through the day. Although there is some spread among guidance regarding the eastward progression of the dryline and wind magnitudes, the overall consensus among ensemble members is for widespread elevated to critical fire weather conditions across eastern NM into adjacent portions of TX. Although fuels are currently critically dry, rain chances in the preceding days may limit fuel availability/dryness to some degree. Given that this synoptic pattern matches typical critical fire weather regimes, higher risk probabilities will likely be warranted as fuel status uncertainty is reduced. ..Moore.. 03/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 PM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 011200Z Fire weather concerns are expected to gradually return to the southern High Plains through the extended period. Long-range deterministic and ensemble guidance continues to show the gradual eastward translation of the upper ridge (currently over the western CONUS) through the middle of the week. By D5/Friday into D6/Saturday, an upper trough will begin to push into the Four Corners and southern High Plains, resulting in dry/windy conditions across a region with ERCs between the 80th to 95th percentile. Extended guidance hints that this may be the start of a more active upper-level regime featuring a series of progressive shortwave troughs across the southern U.S. heading into early next week. ...D3/Wednesday to D4/Thursday - New Mexico... A weak upper disturbance is expected to migrate into NM/west TX under the axis of the long-wave ridge by mid-week. Although the low-level mass response to this feature will be weak, northwestward warm/moist advection into eastern NM and west TX coupled with modest ascent is expected to promote isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms late D3/Wed into D4/Thur from central NM to western TX. On the western periphery of the moist plume, PWAT values between 0.5 to 0.75 inches should coincide with the coldest mid-level temperatures and promote sufficient MUCAPE (50-200 J/kg) for isolated thunderstorms. Dry, well-mixed boundary layers will limit rainfall amounts and support the potential for dry lightning strikes over a region with critically dry fuels. ...D5/Friday to D6/Saturday - southern High Plains... West/southwest winds are expected to strengthen through the day on D5/Friday across the Four Corners and southern High Plains amid surface pressure falls ahead of the approaching upper trough. Dry air advecting into the region will promote a swath of 15-20% RH coincident with 15-20 mph winds behind a sharpening lee trough/dryline. Elevated fire weather conditions appear likely with critical conditions possible depending on the intensity of surface low and resulting wind field. The upper trough is forecast to begin ejecting into the southern/central Plains on D5/Saturday with the attendant surface low and dryline shifting east through the day. Although there is some spread among guidance regarding the eastward progression of the dryline and wind magnitudes, the overall consensus among ensemble members is for widespread elevated to critical fire weather conditions across eastern NM into adjacent portions of TX. Although fuels are currently critically dry, rain chances in the preceding days may limit fuel availability/dryness to some degree. Given that this synoptic pattern matches typical critical fire weather regimes, higher risk probabilities will likely be warranted as fuel status uncertainty is reduced. ..Moore.. 03/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 PM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 011200Z Fire weather concerns are expected to gradually return to the southern High Plains through the extended period. Long-range deterministic and ensemble guidance continues to show the gradual eastward translation of the upper ridge (currently over the western CONUS) through the middle of the week. By D5/Friday into D6/Saturday, an upper trough will begin to push into the Four Corners and southern High Plains, resulting in dry/windy conditions across a region with ERCs between the 80th to 95th percentile. Extended guidance hints that this may be the start of a more active upper-level regime featuring a series of progressive shortwave troughs across the southern U.S. heading into early next week. ...D3/Wednesday to D4/Thursday - New Mexico... A weak upper disturbance is expected to migrate into NM/west TX under the axis of the long-wave ridge by mid-week. Although the low-level mass response to this feature will be weak, northwestward warm/moist advection into eastern NM and west TX coupled with modest ascent is expected to promote isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms late D3/Wed into D4/Thur from central NM to western TX. On the western periphery of the moist plume, PWAT values between 0.5 to 0.75 inches should coincide with the coldest mid-level temperatures and promote sufficient MUCAPE (50-200 J/kg) for isolated thunderstorms. Dry, well-mixed boundary layers will limit rainfall amounts and support the potential for dry lightning strikes over a region with critically dry fuels. ...D5/Friday to D6/Saturday - southern High Plains... West/southwest winds are expected to strengthen through the day on D5/Friday across the Four Corners and southern High Plains amid surface pressure falls ahead of the approaching upper trough. Dry air advecting into the region will promote a swath of 15-20% RH coincident with 15-20 mph winds behind a sharpening lee trough/dryline. Elevated fire weather conditions appear likely with critical conditions possible depending on the intensity of surface low and resulting wind field. The upper trough is forecast to begin ejecting into the southern/central Plains on D5/Saturday with the attendant surface low and dryline shifting east through the day. Although there is some spread among guidance regarding the eastward progression of the dryline and wind magnitudes, the overall consensus among ensemble members is for widespread elevated to critical fire weather conditions across eastern NM into adjacent portions of TX. Although fuels are currently critically dry, rain chances in the preceding days may limit fuel availability/dryness to some degree. Given that this synoptic pattern matches typical critical fire weather regimes, higher risk probabilities will likely be warranted as fuel status uncertainty is reduced. ..Moore.. 03/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 PM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 011200Z Fire weather concerns are expected to gradually return to the southern High Plains through the extended period. Long-range deterministic and ensemble guidance continues to show the gradual eastward translation of the upper ridge (currently over the western CONUS) through the middle of the week. By D5/Friday into D6/Saturday, an upper trough will begin to push into the Four Corners and southern High Plains, resulting in dry/windy conditions across a region with ERCs between the 80th to 95th percentile. Extended guidance hints that this may be the start of a more active upper-level regime featuring a series of progressive shortwave troughs across the southern U.S. heading into early next week. ...D3/Wednesday to D4/Thursday - New Mexico... A weak upper disturbance is expected to migrate into NM/west TX under the axis of the long-wave ridge by mid-week. Although the low-level mass response to this feature will be weak, northwestward warm/moist advection into eastern NM and west TX coupled with modest ascent is expected to promote isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms late D3/Wed into D4/Thur from central NM to western TX. On the western periphery of the moist plume, PWAT values between 0.5 to 0.75 inches should coincide with the coldest mid-level temperatures and promote sufficient MUCAPE (50-200 J/kg) for isolated thunderstorms. Dry, well-mixed boundary layers will limit rainfall amounts and support the potential for dry lightning strikes over a region with critically dry fuels. ...D5/Friday to D6/Saturday - southern High Plains... West/southwest winds are expected to strengthen through the day on D5/Friday across the Four Corners and southern High Plains amid surface pressure falls ahead of the approaching upper trough. Dry air advecting into the region will promote a swath of 15-20% RH coincident with 15-20 mph winds behind a sharpening lee trough/dryline. Elevated fire weather conditions appear likely with critical conditions possible depending on the intensity of surface low and resulting wind field. The upper trough is forecast to begin ejecting into the southern/central Plains on D5/Saturday with the attendant surface low and dryline shifting east through the day. Although there is some spread among guidance regarding the eastward progression of the dryline and wind magnitudes, the overall consensus among ensemble members is for widespread elevated to critical fire weather conditions across eastern NM into adjacent portions of TX. Although fuels are currently critically dry, rain chances in the preceding days may limit fuel availability/dryness to some degree. Given that this synoptic pattern matches typical critical fire weather regimes, higher risk probabilities will likely be warranted as fuel status uncertainty is reduced. ..Moore.. 03/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 PM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 011200Z Fire weather concerns are expected to gradually return to the southern High Plains through the extended period. Long-range deterministic and ensemble guidance continues to show the gradual eastward translation of the upper ridge (currently over the western CONUS) through the middle of the week. By D5/Friday into D6/Saturday, an upper trough will begin to push into the Four Corners and southern High Plains, resulting in dry/windy conditions across a region with ERCs between the 80th to 95th percentile. Extended guidance hints that this may be the start of a more active upper-level regime featuring a series of progressive shortwave troughs across the southern U.S. heading into early next week. ...D3/Wednesday to D4/Thursday - New Mexico... A weak upper disturbance is expected to migrate into NM/west TX under the axis of the long-wave ridge by mid-week. Although the low-level mass response to this feature will be weak, northwestward warm/moist advection into eastern NM and west TX coupled with modest ascent is expected to promote isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms late D3/Wed into D4/Thur from central NM to western TX. On the western periphery of the moist plume, PWAT values between 0.5 to 0.75 inches should coincide with the coldest mid-level temperatures and promote sufficient MUCAPE (50-200 J/kg) for isolated thunderstorms. Dry, well-mixed boundary layers will limit rainfall amounts and support the potential for dry lightning strikes over a region with critically dry fuels. ...D5/Friday to D6/Saturday - southern High Plains... West/southwest winds are expected to strengthen through the day on D5/Friday across the Four Corners and southern High Plains amid surface pressure falls ahead of the approaching upper trough. Dry air advecting into the region will promote a swath of 15-20% RH coincident with 15-20 mph winds behind a sharpening lee trough/dryline. Elevated fire weather conditions appear likely with critical conditions possible depending on the intensity of surface low and resulting wind field. The upper trough is forecast to begin ejecting into the southern/central Plains on D5/Saturday with the attendant surface low and dryline shifting east through the day. Although there is some spread among guidance regarding the eastward progression of the dryline and wind magnitudes, the overall consensus among ensemble members is for widespread elevated to critical fire weather conditions across eastern NM into adjacent portions of TX. Although fuels are currently critically dry, rain chances in the preceding days may limit fuel availability/dryness to some degree. Given that this synoptic pattern matches typical critical fire weather regimes, higher risk probabilities will likely be warranted as fuel status uncertainty is reduced. ..Moore.. 03/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 PM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 011200Z Fire weather concerns are expected to gradually return to the southern High Plains through the extended period. Long-range deterministic and ensemble guidance continues to show the gradual eastward translation of the upper ridge (currently over the western CONUS) through the middle of the week. By D5/Friday into D6/Saturday, an upper trough will begin to push into the Four Corners and southern High Plains, resulting in dry/windy conditions across a region with ERCs between the 80th to 95th percentile. Extended guidance hints that this may be the start of a more active upper-level regime featuring a series of progressive shortwave troughs across the southern U.S. heading into early next week. ...D3/Wednesday to D4/Thursday - New Mexico... A weak upper disturbance is expected to migrate into NM/west TX under the axis of the long-wave ridge by mid-week. Although the low-level mass response to this feature will be weak, northwestward warm/moist advection into eastern NM and west TX coupled with modest ascent is expected to promote isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms late D3/Wed into D4/Thur from central NM to western TX. On the western periphery of the moist plume, PWAT values between 0.5 to 0.75 inches should coincide with the coldest mid-level temperatures and promote sufficient MUCAPE (50-200 J/kg) for isolated thunderstorms. Dry, well-mixed boundary layers will limit rainfall amounts and support the potential for dry lightning strikes over a region with critically dry fuels. ...D5/Friday to D6/Saturday - southern High Plains... West/southwest winds are expected to strengthen through the day on D5/Friday across the Four Corners and southern High Plains amid surface pressure falls ahead of the approaching upper trough. Dry air advecting into the region will promote a swath of 15-20% RH coincident with 15-20 mph winds behind a sharpening lee trough/dryline. Elevated fire weather conditions appear likely with critical conditions possible depending on the intensity of surface low and resulting wind field. The upper trough is forecast to begin ejecting into the southern/central Plains on D5/Saturday with the attendant surface low and dryline shifting east through the day. Although there is some spread among guidance regarding the eastward progression of the dryline and wind magnitudes, the overall consensus among ensemble members is for widespread elevated to critical fire weather conditions across eastern NM into adjacent portions of TX. Although fuels are currently critically dry, rain chances in the preceding days may limit fuel availability/dryness to some degree. Given that this synoptic pattern matches typical critical fire weather regimes, higher risk probabilities will likely be warranted as fuel status uncertainty is reduced. ..Moore.. 03/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 PM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms remain possible across portions of the Southeast U.S. and southwestern TX. ...20Z Update... The Category 1/Marginal Risk was removed, with thunder probabilities constricted to portions of the Gulf Coast. Latest MRMS radar and NLDN lightning data show decreasing trends in convective intensity along the Gulf Coast, in general agreement with high-resolution guidance consensus. Furthermore, objective analysis also shows decreasing buoyancy across much of the Southeast, with thunder probabilities preserved along the Gulf Coast, where lightning flashes are most likely. ..Squitieri.. 03/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1108 AM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025/ ...Gulf Coast... Clusters of thunderstorms have been affecting parts of southern LA/MS/AL and the FL Panhandle this morning. The effective outflow boundary currently extends from the Delta region of southeast LA eastward across the Gulf near-shore waters into the FL Panhandle, and is pushing slowly southward. This will significantly limit the area of surface-based instability through the afternoon. Nevertheless, a strong storm or two will remain possible in vicinity of the boundary, with locally damaging winds or hail being the main concerns. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 PM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms remain possible across portions of the Southeast U.S. and southwestern TX. ...20Z Update... The Category 1/Marginal Risk was removed, with thunder probabilities constricted to portions of the Gulf Coast. Latest MRMS radar and NLDN lightning data show decreasing trends in convective intensity along the Gulf Coast, in general agreement with high-resolution guidance consensus. Furthermore, objective analysis also shows decreasing buoyancy across much of the Southeast, with thunder probabilities preserved along the Gulf Coast, where lightning flashes are most likely. ..Squitieri.. 03/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1108 AM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025/ ...Gulf Coast... Clusters of thunderstorms have been affecting parts of southern LA/MS/AL and the FL Panhandle this morning. The effective outflow boundary currently extends from the Delta region of southeast LA eastward across the Gulf near-shore waters into the FL Panhandle, and is pushing slowly southward. This will significantly limit the area of surface-based instability through the afternoon. Nevertheless, a strong storm or two will remain possible in vicinity of the boundary, with locally damaging winds or hail being the main concerns. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 PM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms remain possible across portions of the Southeast U.S. and southwestern TX. ...20Z Update... The Category 1/Marginal Risk was removed, with thunder probabilities constricted to portions of the Gulf Coast. Latest MRMS radar and NLDN lightning data show decreasing trends in convective intensity along the Gulf Coast, in general agreement with high-resolution guidance consensus. Furthermore, objective analysis also shows decreasing buoyancy across much of the Southeast, with thunder probabilities preserved along the Gulf Coast, where lightning flashes are most likely. ..Squitieri.. 03/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1108 AM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025/ ...Gulf Coast... Clusters of thunderstorms have been affecting parts of southern LA/MS/AL and the FL Panhandle this morning. The effective outflow boundary currently extends from the Delta region of southeast LA eastward across the Gulf near-shore waters into the FL Panhandle, and is pushing slowly southward. This will significantly limit the area of surface-based instability through the afternoon. Nevertheless, a strong storm or two will remain possible in vicinity of the boundary, with locally damaging winds or hail being the main concerns. Read more