Severe Storms

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 AM CST Thu Dec 12 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns may emerge across parts of the southern Plains and Southwest this afternoon; however, relatively moist fuel conditions continue to limit the overall fire threat. Early-morning water vapor imagery depicts a slowly de-amplifying ridge from the southern Rockies into western Canada with shortwave troughs approaching the Pacific Northwest and Baja California. These upper waves will drive fire weather concerns for the next two days as they migrate east into the Southwest and southern Plains. ...Central TX into OK... A modest, southerly, dry return-flow regime is becoming established over the southern Plains as a surface high over the lower MS River Valley gradually shifts east. Additionally, a weak lee cyclone is noted in surface observations across eastern CO. Over the next 12-24 hours, the low-amplitude upper wave approaching Baja California will overspread the southern Rockies, resulting in a gradual intensification of the lee cyclone. As a result, southerly winds should increase to 15-20 mph across central TX into southern and central OK. The recent deep frontal intrusion across the Gulf will limit moisture recovery with RH minimums around 20% expected this afternoon. While elevated (to perhaps locally critical) fire weather conditions are possible, recent fuel guidance suggests ERCs are well below the 50th percentile. Consequently, fire concerns should remain limited to primarily finer fuel beds that may see sufficient drying by late afternoon to support fire spread. ...Arizona... 06 UTC surface observations show very dry conditions across southern CA into southern AZ with RH values in the single digits to low teens. This dry air mass will spread north through the day as surface pressure falls across NV/UT in response to the approach of the upper wave off the Pacific Northwest coast. Afternoon RH minimums in the single digits are anticipated, and may coincide with 15 mph winds - especially along and north of the Mogollon Rim. However, as with the southern Plains, ERC guidance suggests fuels are not overly receptive at this time, which precludes highlights. ..Moore.. 12/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 AM CST Thu Dec 12 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns may emerge across parts of the southern Plains and Southwest this afternoon; however, relatively moist fuel conditions continue to limit the overall fire threat. Early-morning water vapor imagery depicts a slowly de-amplifying ridge from the southern Rockies into western Canada with shortwave troughs approaching the Pacific Northwest and Baja California. These upper waves will drive fire weather concerns for the next two days as they migrate east into the Southwest and southern Plains. ...Central TX into OK... A modest, southerly, dry return-flow regime is becoming established over the southern Plains as a surface high over the lower MS River Valley gradually shifts east. Additionally, a weak lee cyclone is noted in surface observations across eastern CO. Over the next 12-24 hours, the low-amplitude upper wave approaching Baja California will overspread the southern Rockies, resulting in a gradual intensification of the lee cyclone. As a result, southerly winds should increase to 15-20 mph across central TX into southern and central OK. The recent deep frontal intrusion across the Gulf will limit moisture recovery with RH minimums around 20% expected this afternoon. While elevated (to perhaps locally critical) fire weather conditions are possible, recent fuel guidance suggests ERCs are well below the 50th percentile. Consequently, fire concerns should remain limited to primarily finer fuel beds that may see sufficient drying by late afternoon to support fire spread. ...Arizona... 06 UTC surface observations show very dry conditions across southern CA into southern AZ with RH values in the single digits to low teens. This dry air mass will spread north through the day as surface pressure falls across NV/UT in response to the approach of the upper wave off the Pacific Northwest coast. Afternoon RH minimums in the single digits are anticipated, and may coincide with 15 mph winds - especially along and north of the Mogollon Rim. However, as with the southern Plains, ERC guidance suggests fuels are not overly receptive at this time, which precludes highlights. ..Moore.. 12/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 AM CST Thu Dec 12 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns may emerge across parts of the southern Plains and Southwest this afternoon; however, relatively moist fuel conditions continue to limit the overall fire threat. Early-morning water vapor imagery depicts a slowly de-amplifying ridge from the southern Rockies into western Canada with shortwave troughs approaching the Pacific Northwest and Baja California. These upper waves will drive fire weather concerns for the next two days as they migrate east into the Southwest and southern Plains. ...Central TX into OK... A modest, southerly, dry return-flow regime is becoming established over the southern Plains as a surface high over the lower MS River Valley gradually shifts east. Additionally, a weak lee cyclone is noted in surface observations across eastern CO. Over the next 12-24 hours, the low-amplitude upper wave approaching Baja California will overspread the southern Rockies, resulting in a gradual intensification of the lee cyclone. As a result, southerly winds should increase to 15-20 mph across central TX into southern and central OK. The recent deep frontal intrusion across the Gulf will limit moisture recovery with RH minimums around 20% expected this afternoon. While elevated (to perhaps locally critical) fire weather conditions are possible, recent fuel guidance suggests ERCs are well below the 50th percentile. Consequently, fire concerns should remain limited to primarily finer fuel beds that may see sufficient drying by late afternoon to support fire spread. ...Arizona... 06 UTC surface observations show very dry conditions across southern CA into southern AZ with RH values in the single digits to low teens. This dry air mass will spread north through the day as surface pressure falls across NV/UT in response to the approach of the upper wave off the Pacific Northwest coast. Afternoon RH minimums in the single digits are anticipated, and may coincide with 15 mph winds - especially along and north of the Mogollon Rim. However, as with the southern Plains, ERC guidance suggests fuels are not overly receptive at this time, which precludes highlights. ..Moore.. 12/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 AM CST Thu Dec 12 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns may emerge across parts of the southern Plains and Southwest this afternoon; however, relatively moist fuel conditions continue to limit the overall fire threat. Early-morning water vapor imagery depicts a slowly de-amplifying ridge from the southern Rockies into western Canada with shortwave troughs approaching the Pacific Northwest and Baja California. These upper waves will drive fire weather concerns for the next two days as they migrate east into the Southwest and southern Plains. ...Central TX into OK... A modest, southerly, dry return-flow regime is becoming established over the southern Plains as a surface high over the lower MS River Valley gradually shifts east. Additionally, a weak lee cyclone is noted in surface observations across eastern CO. Over the next 12-24 hours, the low-amplitude upper wave approaching Baja California will overspread the southern Rockies, resulting in a gradual intensification of the lee cyclone. As a result, southerly winds should increase to 15-20 mph across central TX into southern and central OK. The recent deep frontal intrusion across the Gulf will limit moisture recovery with RH minimums around 20% expected this afternoon. While elevated (to perhaps locally critical) fire weather conditions are possible, recent fuel guidance suggests ERCs are well below the 50th percentile. Consequently, fire concerns should remain limited to primarily finer fuel beds that may see sufficient drying by late afternoon to support fire spread. ...Arizona... 06 UTC surface observations show very dry conditions across southern CA into southern AZ with RH values in the single digits to low teens. This dry air mass will spread north through the day as surface pressure falls across NV/UT in response to the approach of the upper wave off the Pacific Northwest coast. Afternoon RH minimums in the single digits are anticipated, and may coincide with 15 mph winds - especially along and north of the Mogollon Rim. However, as with the southern Plains, ERC guidance suggests fuels are not overly receptive at this time, which precludes highlights. ..Moore.. 12/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 AM CST Thu Dec 12 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns may emerge across parts of the southern Plains and Southwest this afternoon; however, relatively moist fuel conditions continue to limit the overall fire threat. Early-morning water vapor imagery depicts a slowly de-amplifying ridge from the southern Rockies into western Canada with shortwave troughs approaching the Pacific Northwest and Baja California. These upper waves will drive fire weather concerns for the next two days as they migrate east into the Southwest and southern Plains. ...Central TX into OK... A modest, southerly, dry return-flow regime is becoming established over the southern Plains as a surface high over the lower MS River Valley gradually shifts east. Additionally, a weak lee cyclone is noted in surface observations across eastern CO. Over the next 12-24 hours, the low-amplitude upper wave approaching Baja California will overspread the southern Rockies, resulting in a gradual intensification of the lee cyclone. As a result, southerly winds should increase to 15-20 mph across central TX into southern and central OK. The recent deep frontal intrusion across the Gulf will limit moisture recovery with RH minimums around 20% expected this afternoon. While elevated (to perhaps locally critical) fire weather conditions are possible, recent fuel guidance suggests ERCs are well below the 50th percentile. Consequently, fire concerns should remain limited to primarily finer fuel beds that may see sufficient drying by late afternoon to support fire spread. ...Arizona... 06 UTC surface observations show very dry conditions across southern CA into southern AZ with RH values in the single digits to low teens. This dry air mass will spread north through the day as surface pressure falls across NV/UT in response to the approach of the upper wave off the Pacific Northwest coast. Afternoon RH minimums in the single digits are anticipated, and may coincide with 15 mph winds - especially along and north of the Mogollon Rim. However, as with the southern Plains, ERC guidance suggests fuels are not overly receptive at this time, which precludes highlights. ..Moore.. 12/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 AM CST Thu Dec 12 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns may emerge across parts of the southern Plains and Southwest this afternoon; however, relatively moist fuel conditions continue to limit the overall fire threat. Early-morning water vapor imagery depicts a slowly de-amplifying ridge from the southern Rockies into western Canada with shortwave troughs approaching the Pacific Northwest and Baja California. These upper waves will drive fire weather concerns for the next two days as they migrate east into the Southwest and southern Plains. ...Central TX into OK... A modest, southerly, dry return-flow regime is becoming established over the southern Plains as a surface high over the lower MS River Valley gradually shifts east. Additionally, a weak lee cyclone is noted in surface observations across eastern CO. Over the next 12-24 hours, the low-amplitude upper wave approaching Baja California will overspread the southern Rockies, resulting in a gradual intensification of the lee cyclone. As a result, southerly winds should increase to 15-20 mph across central TX into southern and central OK. The recent deep frontal intrusion across the Gulf will limit moisture recovery with RH minimums around 20% expected this afternoon. While elevated (to perhaps locally critical) fire weather conditions are possible, recent fuel guidance suggests ERCs are well below the 50th percentile. Consequently, fire concerns should remain limited to primarily finer fuel beds that may see sufficient drying by late afternoon to support fire spread. ...Arizona... 06 UTC surface observations show very dry conditions across southern CA into southern AZ with RH values in the single digits to low teens. This dry air mass will spread north through the day as surface pressure falls across NV/UT in response to the approach of the upper wave off the Pacific Northwest coast. Afternoon RH minimums in the single digits are anticipated, and may coincide with 15 mph winds - especially along and north of the Mogollon Rim. However, as with the southern Plains, ERC guidance suggests fuels are not overly receptive at this time, which precludes highlights. ..Moore.. 12/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1104 PM CST Wed Dec 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. today through tonight. ...Synopsis... As significant lower/mid-tropospheric cyclogenesis proceeds across northeastern Quebec, models indicate that large-scale mid-level troughing initially encompassing much of the eastern U.S. will begin to lose amplitude later today through tonight. A couple of digging short wave perturbations may maintain broad deep troughing across the Great Lakes and much of the Northeast; however, low amplitude ridging appears likely to overspread the southern Great Plains/lower Mississippi Valley and much of the Gulf States, downstream of weakening mid-level troughing progressing inland of the Pacific coast through much of the Great Basin and Rockies by early Friday. In the wake of the cyclone, and associated trailing cold front stalling to the south of the Florida Peninsula, models indicate that cold surface ridging will maintain a considerable influence while continuing to build across much of the nation to the east of the Rockies. Weak surface troughing may be maintained to the lee of the Rockies, but boundary-layer modification across the western Gulf of Mexico is not expected to yield sufficient moistening within southerly inland return flow to support appreciable destabilization. ...Great Lakes... High resolution model output indicates that the evolving pattern may maintain the development of sustained convective bands across the region, with the most substantive low-level destabilization generally focused across and east of the Lake Huron/Georgian Bay and Lake Ontario vicinities. However, given relatively low (and lowering) equilibrium levels forecast even across these areas, the potential for convection capable of producing lightning appears negligible (i.e., less than 10 percent) today through tonight. ..Kerr.. 12/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1104 PM CST Wed Dec 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. today through tonight. ...Synopsis... As significant lower/mid-tropospheric cyclogenesis proceeds across northeastern Quebec, models indicate that large-scale mid-level troughing initially encompassing much of the eastern U.S. will begin to lose amplitude later today through tonight. A couple of digging short wave perturbations may maintain broad deep troughing across the Great Lakes and much of the Northeast; however, low amplitude ridging appears likely to overspread the southern Great Plains/lower Mississippi Valley and much of the Gulf States, downstream of weakening mid-level troughing progressing inland of the Pacific coast through much of the Great Basin and Rockies by early Friday. In the wake of the cyclone, and associated trailing cold front stalling to the south of the Florida Peninsula, models indicate that cold surface ridging will maintain a considerable influence while continuing to build across much of the nation to the east of the Rockies. Weak surface troughing may be maintained to the lee of the Rockies, but boundary-layer modification across the western Gulf of Mexico is not expected to yield sufficient moistening within southerly inland return flow to support appreciable destabilization. ...Great Lakes... High resolution model output indicates that the evolving pattern may maintain the development of sustained convective bands across the region, with the most substantive low-level destabilization generally focused across and east of the Lake Huron/Georgian Bay and Lake Ontario vicinities. However, given relatively low (and lowering) equilibrium levels forecast even across these areas, the potential for convection capable of producing lightning appears negligible (i.e., less than 10 percent) today through tonight. ..Kerr.. 12/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1104 PM CST Wed Dec 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. today through tonight. ...Synopsis... As significant lower/mid-tropospheric cyclogenesis proceeds across northeastern Quebec, models indicate that large-scale mid-level troughing initially encompassing much of the eastern U.S. will begin to lose amplitude later today through tonight. A couple of digging short wave perturbations may maintain broad deep troughing across the Great Lakes and much of the Northeast; however, low amplitude ridging appears likely to overspread the southern Great Plains/lower Mississippi Valley and much of the Gulf States, downstream of weakening mid-level troughing progressing inland of the Pacific coast through much of the Great Basin and Rockies by early Friday. In the wake of the cyclone, and associated trailing cold front stalling to the south of the Florida Peninsula, models indicate that cold surface ridging will maintain a considerable influence while continuing to build across much of the nation to the east of the Rockies. Weak surface troughing may be maintained to the lee of the Rockies, but boundary-layer modification across the western Gulf of Mexico is not expected to yield sufficient moistening within southerly inland return flow to support appreciable destabilization. ...Great Lakes... High resolution model output indicates that the evolving pattern may maintain the development of sustained convective bands across the region, with the most substantive low-level destabilization generally focused across and east of the Lake Huron/Georgian Bay and Lake Ontario vicinities. However, given relatively low (and lowering) equilibrium levels forecast even across these areas, the potential for convection capable of producing lightning appears negligible (i.e., less than 10 percent) today through tonight. ..Kerr.. 12/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1104 PM CST Wed Dec 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. today through tonight. ...Synopsis... As significant lower/mid-tropospheric cyclogenesis proceeds across northeastern Quebec, models indicate that large-scale mid-level troughing initially encompassing much of the eastern U.S. will begin to lose amplitude later today through tonight. A couple of digging short wave perturbations may maintain broad deep troughing across the Great Lakes and much of the Northeast; however, low amplitude ridging appears likely to overspread the southern Great Plains/lower Mississippi Valley and much of the Gulf States, downstream of weakening mid-level troughing progressing inland of the Pacific coast through much of the Great Basin and Rockies by early Friday. In the wake of the cyclone, and associated trailing cold front stalling to the south of the Florida Peninsula, models indicate that cold surface ridging will maintain a considerable influence while continuing to build across much of the nation to the east of the Rockies. Weak surface troughing may be maintained to the lee of the Rockies, but boundary-layer modification across the western Gulf of Mexico is not expected to yield sufficient moistening within southerly inland return flow to support appreciable destabilization. ...Great Lakes... High resolution model output indicates that the evolving pattern may maintain the development of sustained convective bands across the region, with the most substantive low-level destabilization generally focused across and east of the Lake Huron/Georgian Bay and Lake Ontario vicinities. However, given relatively low (and lowering) equilibrium levels forecast even across these areas, the potential for convection capable of producing lightning appears negligible (i.e., less than 10 percent) today through tonight. ..Kerr.. 12/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1104 PM CST Wed Dec 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. today through tonight. ...Synopsis... As significant lower/mid-tropospheric cyclogenesis proceeds across northeastern Quebec, models indicate that large-scale mid-level troughing initially encompassing much of the eastern U.S. will begin to lose amplitude later today through tonight. A couple of digging short wave perturbations may maintain broad deep troughing across the Great Lakes and much of the Northeast; however, low amplitude ridging appears likely to overspread the southern Great Plains/lower Mississippi Valley and much of the Gulf States, downstream of weakening mid-level troughing progressing inland of the Pacific coast through much of the Great Basin and Rockies by early Friday. In the wake of the cyclone, and associated trailing cold front stalling to the south of the Florida Peninsula, models indicate that cold surface ridging will maintain a considerable influence while continuing to build across much of the nation to the east of the Rockies. Weak surface troughing may be maintained to the lee of the Rockies, but boundary-layer modification across the western Gulf of Mexico is not expected to yield sufficient moistening within southerly inland return flow to support appreciable destabilization. ...Great Lakes... High resolution model output indicates that the evolving pattern may maintain the development of sustained convective bands across the region, with the most substantive low-level destabilization generally focused across and east of the Lake Huron/Georgian Bay and Lake Ontario vicinities. However, given relatively low (and lowering) equilibrium levels forecast even across these areas, the potential for convection capable of producing lightning appears negligible (i.e., less than 10 percent) today through tonight. ..Kerr.. 12/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1104 PM CST Wed Dec 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. today through tonight. ...Synopsis... As significant lower/mid-tropospheric cyclogenesis proceeds across northeastern Quebec, models indicate that large-scale mid-level troughing initially encompassing much of the eastern U.S. will begin to lose amplitude later today through tonight. A couple of digging short wave perturbations may maintain broad deep troughing across the Great Lakes and much of the Northeast; however, low amplitude ridging appears likely to overspread the southern Great Plains/lower Mississippi Valley and much of the Gulf States, downstream of weakening mid-level troughing progressing inland of the Pacific coast through much of the Great Basin and Rockies by early Friday. In the wake of the cyclone, and associated trailing cold front stalling to the south of the Florida Peninsula, models indicate that cold surface ridging will maintain a considerable influence while continuing to build across much of the nation to the east of the Rockies. Weak surface troughing may be maintained to the lee of the Rockies, but boundary-layer modification across the western Gulf of Mexico is not expected to yield sufficient moistening within southerly inland return flow to support appreciable destabilization. ...Great Lakes... High resolution model output indicates that the evolving pattern may maintain the development of sustained convective bands across the region, with the most substantive low-level destabilization generally focused across and east of the Lake Huron/Georgian Bay and Lake Ontario vicinities. However, given relatively low (and lowering) equilibrium levels forecast even across these areas, the potential for convection capable of producing lightning appears negligible (i.e., less than 10 percent) today through tonight. ..Kerr.. 12/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1104 PM CST Wed Dec 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. today through tonight. ...Synopsis... As significant lower/mid-tropospheric cyclogenesis proceeds across northeastern Quebec, models indicate that large-scale mid-level troughing initially encompassing much of the eastern U.S. will begin to lose amplitude later today through tonight. A couple of digging short wave perturbations may maintain broad deep troughing across the Great Lakes and much of the Northeast; however, low amplitude ridging appears likely to overspread the southern Great Plains/lower Mississippi Valley and much of the Gulf States, downstream of weakening mid-level troughing progressing inland of the Pacific coast through much of the Great Basin and Rockies by early Friday. In the wake of the cyclone, and associated trailing cold front stalling to the south of the Florida Peninsula, models indicate that cold surface ridging will maintain a considerable influence while continuing to build across much of the nation to the east of the Rockies. Weak surface troughing may be maintained to the lee of the Rockies, but boundary-layer modification across the western Gulf of Mexico is not expected to yield sufficient moistening within southerly inland return flow to support appreciable destabilization. ...Great Lakes... High resolution model output indicates that the evolving pattern may maintain the development of sustained convective bands across the region, with the most substantive low-level destabilization generally focused across and east of the Lake Huron/Georgian Bay and Lake Ontario vicinities. However, given relatively low (and lowering) equilibrium levels forecast even across these areas, the potential for convection capable of producing lightning appears negligible (i.e., less than 10 percent) today through tonight. ..Kerr.. 12/12/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0648 PM CST Wed Dec 11 2024 Valid 120100Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Some lightning remains possible in heavier showers overspreading portions of coastal New England, and offshore of coastal southeastern Florida, this evening. However, the risk for severe weather appears negligible. ...01Z Update... ...Atlantic Seaboard... Thunderstorm development has generally become focused in a narrow pre-frontal line, now mostly offshore near the Gulf Stream. Offshore of northern Mid Atlantic into portions of New England coastal areas, the narrow corridor of pre-frontal destabilization is very weak and based above a stable near-surface layer, but guidance suggests that some lightning remains possible until the cold front clears the Cape Cod and Down East Maine vicinities overnight. ...Lower Great Lakes... Otherwise, to the southwest of the deepening cyclone migrating northward across eastern Quebec, convection allowing model output indicates that at least a couple of longer-lived bands of low-topped convection will develop across the lower Great Lakes beneath cooling, cyclonic lower/mid-tropospheric flow. It appears that this will include one near southeastern Lake Erie coastal areas by late this evening and another across/east of Lake Ontario overnight. However, the potential for sustained convection capable of producing lightning still appears negligible (less than 10 percent). ..Kerr.. 12/12/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0648 PM CST Wed Dec 11 2024 Valid 120100Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Some lightning remains possible in heavier showers overspreading portions of coastal New England, and offshore of coastal southeastern Florida, this evening. However, the risk for severe weather appears negligible. ...01Z Update... ...Atlantic Seaboard... Thunderstorm development has generally become focused in a narrow pre-frontal line, now mostly offshore near the Gulf Stream. Offshore of northern Mid Atlantic into portions of New England coastal areas, the narrow corridor of pre-frontal destabilization is very weak and based above a stable near-surface layer, but guidance suggests that some lightning remains possible until the cold front clears the Cape Cod and Down East Maine vicinities overnight. ...Lower Great Lakes... Otherwise, to the southwest of the deepening cyclone migrating northward across eastern Quebec, convection allowing model output indicates that at least a couple of longer-lived bands of low-topped convection will develop across the lower Great Lakes beneath cooling, cyclonic lower/mid-tropospheric flow. It appears that this will include one near southeastern Lake Erie coastal areas by late this evening and another across/east of Lake Ontario overnight. However, the potential for sustained convection capable of producing lightning still appears negligible (less than 10 percent). ..Kerr.. 12/12/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0648 PM CST Wed Dec 11 2024 Valid 120100Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Some lightning remains possible in heavier showers overspreading portions of coastal New England, and offshore of coastal southeastern Florida, this evening. However, the risk for severe weather appears negligible. ...01Z Update... ...Atlantic Seaboard... Thunderstorm development has generally become focused in a narrow pre-frontal line, now mostly offshore near the Gulf Stream. Offshore of northern Mid Atlantic into portions of New England coastal areas, the narrow corridor of pre-frontal destabilization is very weak and based above a stable near-surface layer, but guidance suggests that some lightning remains possible until the cold front clears the Cape Cod and Down East Maine vicinities overnight. ...Lower Great Lakes... Otherwise, to the southwest of the deepening cyclone migrating northward across eastern Quebec, convection allowing model output indicates that at least a couple of longer-lived bands of low-topped convection will develop across the lower Great Lakes beneath cooling, cyclonic lower/mid-tropospheric flow. It appears that this will include one near southeastern Lake Erie coastal areas by late this evening and another across/east of Lake Ontario overnight. However, the potential for sustained convection capable of producing lightning still appears negligible (less than 10 percent). ..Kerr.. 12/12/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0648 PM CST Wed Dec 11 2024 Valid 120100Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Some lightning remains possible in heavier showers overspreading portions of coastal New England, and offshore of coastal southeastern Florida, this evening. However, the risk for severe weather appears negligible. ...01Z Update... ...Atlantic Seaboard... Thunderstorm development has generally become focused in a narrow pre-frontal line, now mostly offshore near the Gulf Stream. Offshore of northern Mid Atlantic into portions of New England coastal areas, the narrow corridor of pre-frontal destabilization is very weak and based above a stable near-surface layer, but guidance suggests that some lightning remains possible until the cold front clears the Cape Cod and Down East Maine vicinities overnight. ...Lower Great Lakes... Otherwise, to the southwest of the deepening cyclone migrating northward across eastern Quebec, convection allowing model output indicates that at least a couple of longer-lived bands of low-topped convection will develop across the lower Great Lakes beneath cooling, cyclonic lower/mid-tropospheric flow. It appears that this will include one near southeastern Lake Erie coastal areas by late this evening and another across/east of Lake Ontario overnight. However, the potential for sustained convection capable of producing lightning still appears negligible (less than 10 percent). ..Kerr.. 12/12/2024 Read more

No watches are valid as of Wed Dec 11 22:11:01 UTC 2024.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed Dec 11 22:11:01 UTC 2024.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 PM CST Wed Dec 11 2024 Valid 131200Z - 191200Z Fire weather concerns will remain low in the extended as a progressive pattern brings several storms across the CONUS with potential for cool temperatures and widespread precipitation. Periods of dry/windy conditions are expected across the High/Southern Plains, however, fuels do not appear supportive of large-fire potential at this time. ERC forecasts do indicate fuels will dry, particularly across western Texas into eastern New Mexico, but largely remain below Critical thresholds. ..Thornton.. 12/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more