Severe Storms

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0648 PM CST Thu Feb 06 2025 Valid 070100Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF EASTERN TN AND FAR SOUTHEAST KY/SOUTHWEST VA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may persist through about Midnight EST in vicinity of eastern Tennessee and far southeast Kentucky/southwest Virginia. ...Eastern TN and far southeast KY/southwest VA... Messy and occasionally transient supercell structures are ongoing across parts of far southeast KY into eastern TN, amid a favorable deep-layer wind profile and moderate 0-1 km shear. Some increase in low-level wind speeds during the next couple hours should compensate for the rather veered flow and surface temperatures falling through the low to mid 60s. This could support a corridor of strong gusts and marginally severe hail, along with a brief tornado into late evening. See MCD 72 for further short-term information. Additional development farther to the southwest in Middle TN has thus far struggled to be maintained, but may yet form through about 03Z as the surface cold front moves east towards the southern Appalachians. ..Grams.. 02/07/2025 Read more

WW 0004 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0004 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

No watches are valid as of Thu Feb 6 22:13:01 UTC 2025.

MD 0071 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF MIDDLE/EASTERN TN...SOUTHERN KY...FAR SOUTHWEST VA...FAR WESTERN NC
Mesoscale Discussion 0071 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0410 PM CST Thu Feb 06 2025 Areas affected...Parts of middle/eastern TN...southern KY...far southwest VA...far western NC Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 062210Z - 070015Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Some increase in storm coverage will be possible into the early evening, including the potential for a couple of supercells with a threat of hail, damaging gusts, and possibly a tornado or two. DISCUSSION...Relatively strong diurnal heating occurred this afternoon from northeast TN into southeast KY, with greater cloudiness and weaker heating noted across the rest of TN. Seasonably rich low-level moisture is supporting MLCAPE of around 500-1000 J/kg near and south of a surface front extending from southeast KY into northwest TN, and area VWPs continue to depict strong deep-layer flow/shear that is conditionally favorable for organized convection. Thus far this afternoon, robust convection has mostly been confined to areas north of the boundary, aided by modest low-level warm advection, though a couple stronger cells have recently developed across far southeast KY, while another cell is gradually becoming better organized east of Clarksville, TN. Coverage of storms into the early evening remains uncertain, with stronger frontal convergence expected across western TN (where cloudiness has persisted), and more nebulous large-scale ascent expected in the short-term across southeast KY and eastern TN, where stronger heating occurred. However, with time, a couple of supercells and/or stronger clusters could develop and spread eastward into the early evening. Should this occur, a threat for locally damaging wind and hail could evolve with time. Also, while low-level flow is rather modest and veered across the warm sector, low-level shear/SRH is sufficient to support some tornado threat, especially if any right-moving supercells can be sustained into the early evening. While coverage and magnitude of the threat remain somewhat uncertain, watch issuance remains possible if an increase in organized convection appears imminent. ..Dean/Hart.. 02/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...RNK...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...PAH... MEG... LAT...LON 36578730 36838639 37058540 37288382 37378194 37108145 36528154 35888225 35518307 35448376 35458472 35618597 35698676 35818739 35898781 36198798 36578730 Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Feb 6 21:46:01 UTC 2025.

MD 0070 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL TENNESSEE AND VICINITY
Mesoscale Discussion 0070 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0121 PM CST Thu Feb 06 2025 Areas affected...Portions of western/central Tennessee and vicinity Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 061921Z - 062145Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage and intensity across Tennessee this afternoon and evening along and ahead of a cold front. Convective trends will continue to be monitored for the possibility of a watch. DISCUSSION...While synoptic forcing is limited across the area, some vertical ascent is apparent in visible imagery across southeastern Missouri, leading to multiple instances of convective initiation. Deep-layer shear (around 50 knots per mesoanalysis) is sufficient to support organized storm modes, including supercells. Long, straight hodographs will also be supportive of storm splits, as evidenced by the initial storm evolution in northwestern Tennessee. The limiting factor to a more robust severe threat is the marginal instability (currently around 500 J/kg of MLCAPE). Low-level clouds have been persistent across much of western/central Tennessee slowing destabilization across the area. Nevertheless, with some additional clearing/heating, storms are expected to increase in coverage and intensity, especially over northern-middle Tennessee later this afternoon and evening, posing an all-hazards severe weather risk. Convective trends will be monitored for the possibility of a watch. ..Jirak/Hart.. 02/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG... LAT...LON 36188936 36698938 36948914 36828849 36748776 36698733 36658659 36808372 36158369 35438528 35248595 35148693 35248803 35318879 35508932 36188936 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CST Thu Feb 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z Generally zonal mid-level flow will prevail across much of the central and southern CONUS through Day 5 (Monday), before more pronounced upper troughs traverse the Rockies by Days 6-8 (next Tuesday-Thursday). Over the weekend, a surface low will drift away from the southern Plains, with some lee surface troughing and associated downslope flow expected across portions of the southern High Plains. Surface high pressure and an intruding cold front will also overspread much of the Plains states toward the Lower Mississippi Valley and points east this weekend into mid next week. For Days 5-6 (next Monday-Tuesday) downslope flow will promote dry and windy conditions across southern New Mexico into Far West Texas. Thereafter, a cold front will sweep across the southern Plains, with dry and windy conditions persisting across Far West Texas on Day 7 (Wednesday). Given medium-range guidance consensus in widespread dry and windy conditions meeting Elevated- to Critical-equivalent criteria, and given the lack of recent observed or forecast precipitation accumulations, 40 percent Critical probabilities have been introduced. ..Squitieri.. 02/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CST Thu Feb 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z Generally zonal mid-level flow will prevail across much of the central and southern CONUS through Day 5 (Monday), before more pronounced upper troughs traverse the Rockies by Days 6-8 (next Tuesday-Thursday). Over the weekend, a surface low will drift away from the southern Plains, with some lee surface troughing and associated downslope flow expected across portions of the southern High Plains. Surface high pressure and an intruding cold front will also overspread much of the Plains states toward the Lower Mississippi Valley and points east this weekend into mid next week. For Days 5-6 (next Monday-Tuesday) downslope flow will promote dry and windy conditions across southern New Mexico into Far West Texas. Thereafter, a cold front will sweep across the southern Plains, with dry and windy conditions persisting across Far West Texas on Day 7 (Wednesday). Given medium-range guidance consensus in widespread dry and windy conditions meeting Elevated- to Critical-equivalent criteria, and given the lack of recent observed or forecast precipitation accumulations, 40 percent Critical probabilities have been introduced. ..Squitieri.. 02/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CST Thu Feb 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z Generally zonal mid-level flow will prevail across much of the central and southern CONUS through Day 5 (Monday), before more pronounced upper troughs traverse the Rockies by Days 6-8 (next Tuesday-Thursday). Over the weekend, a surface low will drift away from the southern Plains, with some lee surface troughing and associated downslope flow expected across portions of the southern High Plains. Surface high pressure and an intruding cold front will also overspread much of the Plains states toward the Lower Mississippi Valley and points east this weekend into mid next week. For Days 5-6 (next Monday-Tuesday) downslope flow will promote dry and windy conditions across southern New Mexico into Far West Texas. Thereafter, a cold front will sweep across the southern Plains, with dry and windy conditions persisting across Far West Texas on Day 7 (Wednesday). Given medium-range guidance consensus in widespread dry and windy conditions meeting Elevated- to Critical-equivalent criteria, and given the lack of recent observed or forecast precipitation accumulations, 40 percent Critical probabilities have been introduced. ..Squitieri.. 02/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CST Thu Feb 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z Generally zonal mid-level flow will prevail across much of the central and southern CONUS through Day 5 (Monday), before more pronounced upper troughs traverse the Rockies by Days 6-8 (next Tuesday-Thursday). Over the weekend, a surface low will drift away from the southern Plains, with some lee surface troughing and associated downslope flow expected across portions of the southern High Plains. Surface high pressure and an intruding cold front will also overspread much of the Plains states toward the Lower Mississippi Valley and points east this weekend into mid next week. For Days 5-6 (next Monday-Tuesday) downslope flow will promote dry and windy conditions across southern New Mexico into Far West Texas. Thereafter, a cold front will sweep across the southern Plains, with dry and windy conditions persisting across Far West Texas on Day 7 (Wednesday). Given medium-range guidance consensus in widespread dry and windy conditions meeting Elevated- to Critical-equivalent criteria, and given the lack of recent observed or forecast precipitation accumulations, 40 percent Critical probabilities have been introduced. ..Squitieri.. 02/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CST Thu Feb 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z Generally zonal mid-level flow will prevail across much of the central and southern CONUS through Day 5 (Monday), before more pronounced upper troughs traverse the Rockies by Days 6-8 (next Tuesday-Thursday). Over the weekend, a surface low will drift away from the southern Plains, with some lee surface troughing and associated downslope flow expected across portions of the southern High Plains. Surface high pressure and an intruding cold front will also overspread much of the Plains states toward the Lower Mississippi Valley and points east this weekend into mid next week. For Days 5-6 (next Monday-Tuesday) downslope flow will promote dry and windy conditions across southern New Mexico into Far West Texas. Thereafter, a cold front will sweep across the southern Plains, with dry and windy conditions persisting across Far West Texas on Day 7 (Wednesday). Given medium-range guidance consensus in widespread dry and windy conditions meeting Elevated- to Critical-equivalent criteria, and given the lack of recent observed or forecast precipitation accumulations, 40 percent Critical probabilities have been introduced. ..Squitieri.. 02/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CST Thu Feb 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z Generally zonal mid-level flow will prevail across much of the central and southern CONUS through Day 5 (Monday), before more pronounced upper troughs traverse the Rockies by Days 6-8 (next Tuesday-Thursday). Over the weekend, a surface low will drift away from the southern Plains, with some lee surface troughing and associated downslope flow expected across portions of the southern High Plains. Surface high pressure and an intruding cold front will also overspread much of the Plains states toward the Lower Mississippi Valley and points east this weekend into mid next week. For Days 5-6 (next Monday-Tuesday) downslope flow will promote dry and windy conditions across southern New Mexico into Far West Texas. Thereafter, a cold front will sweep across the southern Plains, with dry and windy conditions persisting across Far West Texas on Day 7 (Wednesday). Given medium-range guidance consensus in widespread dry and windy conditions meeting Elevated- to Critical-equivalent criteria, and given the lack of recent observed or forecast precipitation accumulations, 40 percent Critical probabilities have been introduced. ..Squitieri.. 02/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CST Thu Feb 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z Generally zonal mid-level flow will prevail across much of the central and southern CONUS through Day 5 (Monday), before more pronounced upper troughs traverse the Rockies by Days 6-8 (next Tuesday-Thursday). Over the weekend, a surface low will drift away from the southern Plains, with some lee surface troughing and associated downslope flow expected across portions of the southern High Plains. Surface high pressure and an intruding cold front will also overspread much of the Plains states toward the Lower Mississippi Valley and points east this weekend into mid next week. For Days 5-6 (next Monday-Tuesday) downslope flow will promote dry and windy conditions across southern New Mexico into Far West Texas. Thereafter, a cold front will sweep across the southern Plains, with dry and windy conditions persisting across Far West Texas on Day 7 (Wednesday). Given medium-range guidance consensus in widespread dry and windy conditions meeting Elevated- to Critical-equivalent criteria, and given the lack of recent observed or forecast precipitation accumulations, 40 percent Critical probabilities have been introduced. ..Squitieri.. 02/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CST Thu Feb 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z Generally zonal mid-level flow will prevail across much of the central and southern CONUS through Day 5 (Monday), before more pronounced upper troughs traverse the Rockies by Days 6-8 (next Tuesday-Thursday). Over the weekend, a surface low will drift away from the southern Plains, with some lee surface troughing and associated downslope flow expected across portions of the southern High Plains. Surface high pressure and an intruding cold front will also overspread much of the Plains states toward the Lower Mississippi Valley and points east this weekend into mid next week. For Days 5-6 (next Monday-Tuesday) downslope flow will promote dry and windy conditions across southern New Mexico into Far West Texas. Thereafter, a cold front will sweep across the southern Plains, with dry and windy conditions persisting across Far West Texas on Day 7 (Wednesday). Given medium-range guidance consensus in widespread dry and windy conditions meeting Elevated- to Critical-equivalent criteria, and given the lack of recent observed or forecast precipitation accumulations, 40 percent Critical probabilities have been introduced. ..Squitieri.. 02/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CST Thu Feb 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z Generally zonal mid-level flow will prevail across much of the central and southern CONUS through Day 5 (Monday), before more pronounced upper troughs traverse the Rockies by Days 6-8 (next Tuesday-Thursday). Over the weekend, a surface low will drift away from the southern Plains, with some lee surface troughing and associated downslope flow expected across portions of the southern High Plains. Surface high pressure and an intruding cold front will also overspread much of the Plains states toward the Lower Mississippi Valley and points east this weekend into mid next week. For Days 5-6 (next Monday-Tuesday) downslope flow will promote dry and windy conditions across southern New Mexico into Far West Texas. Thereafter, a cold front will sweep across the southern Plains, with dry and windy conditions persisting across Far West Texas on Day 7 (Wednesday). Given medium-range guidance consensus in widespread dry and windy conditions meeting Elevated- to Critical-equivalent criteria, and given the lack of recent observed or forecast precipitation accumulations, 40 percent Critical probabilities have been introduced. ..Squitieri.. 02/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0139 PM CST Thu Feb 06 2025 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF TENNESSEE AND VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... A few strong/severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening across parts of the Tennessee Valley. ...20z Updates... Updates were made to clip the Marginal Risk to the Blue Ridge Mountains in the western Carolinas to account for where instability wanes and more stable air resides. A few thunderstorms have developed across northwestern Tennessee into southwestern Kentucky. Additional thunderstorm development is expected into Middle Tennessee/central Kentucky through the afternoon and evening. See MCD#70 for more information on this threat. ..Thornton/Hart.. 02/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1008 AM CST Thu Feb 06 2025/ ...TN and vicinity... Morning visible satellite imagery shows a surface cold front extending from northwest TN into southern KY. The air mass along and south of the front continues to slowly moisten with dewpoints now in the 60s across most of western/middle TN, and cloud cover appears to be thinning. This will lead to a zone of 1000-1500 J/kg surface-based CAPE this afternoon. Most 12z model solutions indicate scattered thunderstorms will form along the front and track east-southeastward across much of TN through the afternoon/evening. Low-level wind fields are considerably weaker than last night, suggesting the overall tornado risk has likely decreased. However, mid-level lapse rates around 7 C/km, weak forcing, strong westerly flow aloft, and diurnal heating suggest the risk of a few discrete rotating/bowing storms capable of hail and damaging wind gusts. A tornado or two is possible. The threat may persist after dark in east TN, but should weaken as storms move into less instability over the mountains. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0139 PM CST Thu Feb 06 2025 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF TENNESSEE AND VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... A few strong/severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening across parts of the Tennessee Valley. ...20z Updates... Updates were made to clip the Marginal Risk to the Blue Ridge Mountains in the western Carolinas to account for where instability wanes and more stable air resides. A few thunderstorms have developed across northwestern Tennessee into southwestern Kentucky. Additional thunderstorm development is expected into Middle Tennessee/central Kentucky through the afternoon and evening. See MCD#70 for more information on this threat. ..Thornton/Hart.. 02/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1008 AM CST Thu Feb 06 2025/ ...TN and vicinity... Morning visible satellite imagery shows a surface cold front extending from northwest TN into southern KY. The air mass along and south of the front continues to slowly moisten with dewpoints now in the 60s across most of western/middle TN, and cloud cover appears to be thinning. This will lead to a zone of 1000-1500 J/kg surface-based CAPE this afternoon. Most 12z model solutions indicate scattered thunderstorms will form along the front and track east-southeastward across much of TN through the afternoon/evening. Low-level wind fields are considerably weaker than last night, suggesting the overall tornado risk has likely decreased. However, mid-level lapse rates around 7 C/km, weak forcing, strong westerly flow aloft, and diurnal heating suggest the risk of a few discrete rotating/bowing storms capable of hail and damaging wind gusts. A tornado or two is possible. The threat may persist after dark in east TN, but should weaken as storms move into less instability over the mountains. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0139 PM CST Thu Feb 06 2025 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF TENNESSEE AND VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... A few strong/severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening across parts of the Tennessee Valley. ...20z Updates... Updates were made to clip the Marginal Risk to the Blue Ridge Mountains in the western Carolinas to account for where instability wanes and more stable air resides. A few thunderstorms have developed across northwestern Tennessee into southwestern Kentucky. Additional thunderstorm development is expected into Middle Tennessee/central Kentucky through the afternoon and evening. See MCD#70 for more information on this threat. ..Thornton/Hart.. 02/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1008 AM CST Thu Feb 06 2025/ ...TN and vicinity... Morning visible satellite imagery shows a surface cold front extending from northwest TN into southern KY. The air mass along and south of the front continues to slowly moisten with dewpoints now in the 60s across most of western/middle TN, and cloud cover appears to be thinning. This will lead to a zone of 1000-1500 J/kg surface-based CAPE this afternoon. Most 12z model solutions indicate scattered thunderstorms will form along the front and track east-southeastward across much of TN through the afternoon/evening. Low-level wind fields are considerably weaker than last night, suggesting the overall tornado risk has likely decreased. However, mid-level lapse rates around 7 C/km, weak forcing, strong westerly flow aloft, and diurnal heating suggest the risk of a few discrete rotating/bowing storms capable of hail and damaging wind gusts. A tornado or two is possible. The threat may persist after dark in east TN, but should weaken as storms move into less instability over the mountains. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0139 PM CST Thu Feb 06 2025 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF TENNESSEE AND VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... A few strong/severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening across parts of the Tennessee Valley. ...20z Updates... Updates were made to clip the Marginal Risk to the Blue Ridge Mountains in the western Carolinas to account for where instability wanes and more stable air resides. A few thunderstorms have developed across northwestern Tennessee into southwestern Kentucky. Additional thunderstorm development is expected into Middle Tennessee/central Kentucky through the afternoon and evening. See MCD#70 for more information on this threat. ..Thornton/Hart.. 02/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1008 AM CST Thu Feb 06 2025/ ...TN and vicinity... Morning visible satellite imagery shows a surface cold front extending from northwest TN into southern KY. The air mass along and south of the front continues to slowly moisten with dewpoints now in the 60s across most of western/middle TN, and cloud cover appears to be thinning. This will lead to a zone of 1000-1500 J/kg surface-based CAPE this afternoon. Most 12z model solutions indicate scattered thunderstorms will form along the front and track east-southeastward across much of TN through the afternoon/evening. Low-level wind fields are considerably weaker than last night, suggesting the overall tornado risk has likely decreased. However, mid-level lapse rates around 7 C/km, weak forcing, strong westerly flow aloft, and diurnal heating suggest the risk of a few discrete rotating/bowing storms capable of hail and damaging wind gusts. A tornado or two is possible. The threat may persist after dark in east TN, but should weaken as storms move into less instability over the mountains. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0139 PM CST Thu Feb 06 2025 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF TENNESSEE AND VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... A few strong/severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening across parts of the Tennessee Valley. ...20z Updates... Updates were made to clip the Marginal Risk to the Blue Ridge Mountains in the western Carolinas to account for where instability wanes and more stable air resides. A few thunderstorms have developed across northwestern Tennessee into southwestern Kentucky. Additional thunderstorm development is expected into Middle Tennessee/central Kentucky through the afternoon and evening. See MCD#70 for more information on this threat. ..Thornton/Hart.. 02/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1008 AM CST Thu Feb 06 2025/ ...TN and vicinity... Morning visible satellite imagery shows a surface cold front extending from northwest TN into southern KY. The air mass along and south of the front continues to slowly moisten with dewpoints now in the 60s across most of western/middle TN, and cloud cover appears to be thinning. This will lead to a zone of 1000-1500 J/kg surface-based CAPE this afternoon. Most 12z model solutions indicate scattered thunderstorms will form along the front and track east-southeastward across much of TN through the afternoon/evening. Low-level wind fields are considerably weaker than last night, suggesting the overall tornado risk has likely decreased. However, mid-level lapse rates around 7 C/km, weak forcing, strong westerly flow aloft, and diurnal heating suggest the risk of a few discrete rotating/bowing storms capable of hail and damaging wind gusts. A tornado or two is possible. The threat may persist after dark in east TN, but should weaken as storms move into less instability over the mountains. Read more