Severe Storms

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 AM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025 Valid 251300Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AS WELL AS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH/CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Gusty winds, along with some risk for hail, will accompany isolated thunderstorms across the southeastern Florida Peninsula, and parts of southeast Oklahoma and northern/central Texas. ...Southern Florida Peninsula... The region will be influenced by cyclonically curved westerlies aloft associated with a prominent Eastern States longwave trough. Relatively cool mid-level temperatures (-13 to -14C at 500mb) will support moderate buoyancy across the southern Peninsula this afternoon as temperatures warm into the 80s F. While deep-layer wind profiles will remain somewhat modest, solenoidal influences should encourage isolated convection, some of which could potentially be severe. Strong gusty winds, and perhaps isolated severe hail, could occur with this diurnally driven activity. ...Southeast Oklahoma and North/Central Texas... Upper heights will tend to rise as a front shifts/refocuses northward toward the Red River vicinity later today. Strong boundary-layer heating is expected especially to the west of the I-35 corridor, where convective temperatures will be breached by late afternoon as readings rise through the mid 80s F. While recent HRRR runs are relatively limited in terms of implied convective development, various global and convection-allowing models suggest that diurnally aided development across central into north Texas is plausible toward/just after peak heating, with a greater probability and coverage for storms nocturnally into southern/eastern Oklahoma. Isolated large hail could occur regionally in either regime, with some potential for strong wind gusts as well, mainly in areas near the Red River southward across North Texas. A greater confidence in diurnally related storm development/coverage could warrant consideration of a focused hail-related Slight Risk in subsequent outlooks. ..Guyer/Bentley.. 03/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 AM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025 Valid 251300Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AS WELL AS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH/CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Gusty winds, along with some risk for hail, will accompany isolated thunderstorms across the southeastern Florida Peninsula, and parts of southeast Oklahoma and northern/central Texas. ...Southern Florida Peninsula... The region will be influenced by cyclonically curved westerlies aloft associated with a prominent Eastern States longwave trough. Relatively cool mid-level temperatures (-13 to -14C at 500mb) will support moderate buoyancy across the southern Peninsula this afternoon as temperatures warm into the 80s F. While deep-layer wind profiles will remain somewhat modest, solenoidal influences should encourage isolated convection, some of which could potentially be severe. Strong gusty winds, and perhaps isolated severe hail, could occur with this diurnally driven activity. ...Southeast Oklahoma and North/Central Texas... Upper heights will tend to rise as a front shifts/refocuses northward toward the Red River vicinity later today. Strong boundary-layer heating is expected especially to the west of the I-35 corridor, where convective temperatures will be breached by late afternoon as readings rise through the mid 80s F. While recent HRRR runs are relatively limited in terms of implied convective development, various global and convection-allowing models suggest that diurnally aided development across central into north Texas is plausible toward/just after peak heating, with a greater probability and coverage for storms nocturnally into southern/eastern Oklahoma. Isolated large hail could occur regionally in either regime, with some potential for strong wind gusts as well, mainly in areas near the Red River southward across North Texas. A greater confidence in diurnally related storm development/coverage could warrant consideration of a focused hail-related Slight Risk in subsequent outlooks. ..Guyer/Bentley.. 03/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 AM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025 Valid 251300Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AS WELL AS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH/CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Gusty winds, along with some risk for hail, will accompany isolated thunderstorms across the southeastern Florida Peninsula, and parts of southeast Oklahoma and northern/central Texas. ...Southern Florida Peninsula... The region will be influenced by cyclonically curved westerlies aloft associated with a prominent Eastern States longwave trough. Relatively cool mid-level temperatures (-13 to -14C at 500mb) will support moderate buoyancy across the southern Peninsula this afternoon as temperatures warm into the 80s F. While deep-layer wind profiles will remain somewhat modest, solenoidal influences should encourage isolated convection, some of which could potentially be severe. Strong gusty winds, and perhaps isolated severe hail, could occur with this diurnally driven activity. ...Southeast Oklahoma and North/Central Texas... Upper heights will tend to rise as a front shifts/refocuses northward toward the Red River vicinity later today. Strong boundary-layer heating is expected especially to the west of the I-35 corridor, where convective temperatures will be breached by late afternoon as readings rise through the mid 80s F. While recent HRRR runs are relatively limited in terms of implied convective development, various global and convection-allowing models suggest that diurnally aided development across central into north Texas is plausible toward/just after peak heating, with a greater probability and coverage for storms nocturnally into southern/eastern Oklahoma. Isolated large hail could occur regionally in either regime, with some potential for strong wind gusts as well, mainly in areas near the Red River southward across North Texas. A greater confidence in diurnally related storm development/coverage could warrant consideration of a focused hail-related Slight Risk in subsequent outlooks. ..Guyer/Bentley.. 03/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 AM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025 Valid 251300Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AS WELL AS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH/CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Gusty winds, along with some risk for hail, will accompany isolated thunderstorms across the southeastern Florida Peninsula, and parts of southeast Oklahoma and northern/central Texas. ...Southern Florida Peninsula... The region will be influenced by cyclonically curved westerlies aloft associated with a prominent Eastern States longwave trough. Relatively cool mid-level temperatures (-13 to -14C at 500mb) will support moderate buoyancy across the southern Peninsula this afternoon as temperatures warm into the 80s F. While deep-layer wind profiles will remain somewhat modest, solenoidal influences should encourage isolated convection, some of which could potentially be severe. Strong gusty winds, and perhaps isolated severe hail, could occur with this diurnally driven activity. ...Southeast Oklahoma and North/Central Texas... Upper heights will tend to rise as a front shifts/refocuses northward toward the Red River vicinity later today. Strong boundary-layer heating is expected especially to the west of the I-35 corridor, where convective temperatures will be breached by late afternoon as readings rise through the mid 80s F. While recent HRRR runs are relatively limited in terms of implied convective development, various global and convection-allowing models suggest that diurnally aided development across central into north Texas is plausible toward/just after peak heating, with a greater probability and coverage for storms nocturnally into southern/eastern Oklahoma. Isolated large hail could occur regionally in either regime, with some potential for strong wind gusts as well, mainly in areas near the Red River southward across North Texas. A greater confidence in diurnally related storm development/coverage could warrant consideration of a focused hail-related Slight Risk in subsequent outlooks. ..Guyer/Bentley.. 03/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 AM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025 Valid 251300Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AS WELL AS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH/CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Gusty winds, along with some risk for hail, will accompany isolated thunderstorms across the southeastern Florida Peninsula, and parts of southeast Oklahoma and northern/central Texas. ...Southern Florida Peninsula... The region will be influenced by cyclonically curved westerlies aloft associated with a prominent Eastern States longwave trough. Relatively cool mid-level temperatures (-13 to -14C at 500mb) will support moderate buoyancy across the southern Peninsula this afternoon as temperatures warm into the 80s F. While deep-layer wind profiles will remain somewhat modest, solenoidal influences should encourage isolated convection, some of which could potentially be severe. Strong gusty winds, and perhaps isolated severe hail, could occur with this diurnally driven activity. ...Southeast Oklahoma and North/Central Texas... Upper heights will tend to rise as a front shifts/refocuses northward toward the Red River vicinity later today. Strong boundary-layer heating is expected especially to the west of the I-35 corridor, where convective temperatures will be breached by late afternoon as readings rise through the mid 80s F. While recent HRRR runs are relatively limited in terms of implied convective development, various global and convection-allowing models suggest that diurnally aided development across central into north Texas is plausible toward/just after peak heating, with a greater probability and coverage for storms nocturnally into southern/eastern Oklahoma. Isolated large hail could occur regionally in either regime, with some potential for strong wind gusts as well, mainly in areas near the Red River southward across North Texas. A greater confidence in diurnally related storm development/coverage could warrant consideration of a focused hail-related Slight Risk in subsequent outlooks. ..Guyer/Bentley.. 03/25/2025 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0409 AM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025 Valid 281200Z - 021200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range models appear to be in reasonably good agreement into the Day 7 period (Monday March 31), with respect to evolution/progression of large-scale features. Day 4/Friday, a southern-stream trough is forecast to continue moving slowly eastward across the south-central states, reaching the lower Mississippi Valley Saturday morning. Showers and thunderstorms will accompany this feature, but the lack of robust CAPE/shear likely to be associated with this feature suggests that severe potential should remain subdued. Farther north, weak disturbances moving through anticyclonic flow aloft across the Upper Midwest/Upper Great Lakes/Ohio Valley will likely combine with warm advection near the northward-advancing warm front to support areas of deep convection, with some potential for hail. Risk however appears too low to warrant an areal inclusion. Saturday (Day 5), an upper trough will continue advancing across the Rockies. However, models forecast the main surface low to remain over the eastern Colorado vicinity into the evening hours, with a capped warm sector residing across eastern Kansas/Oklahoma/Texas and the Ozarks area (i.e. yesterday's Day 6 outlook area) in a zone of subsidence in the wake of the slow-moving southern-stream trough. As such, storm initiation now appears likely to remain largely hindered through Sunday morning. The primary severe risk appears likely to evolve Sunday/Day 6, from Missouri/Arkansas/northern Louisiana, spreading eastward through the day, and eventually approaching the west slopes of the Appalachians. As the western U.S. upper trough emerges into the Plains, supporting deepening of surface low pressure, a moist warm sector will destabilize through the day, likely yielding storm development initially west of the Mississippi Valley, and then spreading eastward through the evening. The favorable thermodynamic environment will combine with strong/veering flow through the middle troposphere, suggesting of severe storms including supercells, and attendant, all-hazards severe potential. By Monday, models begin to diverge with respect to speed of surface-frontal advancement east of the Appalachians. Still, enough destabilization should occur east and southeast of the front to allow storms to spread across the Southeast, along with attendant severe risk. Tuesday, model differences continue to increase, with the front residing off the Atlantic and Gulf Coasts per the GFS, while lingering over parts of the Southeast and the Gulf Coast region per the ECMWF. Given the uncertainty/predictability issues, no risk areas will be included. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0409 AM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025 Valid 281200Z - 021200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range models appear to be in reasonably good agreement into the Day 7 period (Monday March 31), with respect to evolution/progression of large-scale features. Day 4/Friday, a southern-stream trough is forecast to continue moving slowly eastward across the south-central states, reaching the lower Mississippi Valley Saturday morning. Showers and thunderstorms will accompany this feature, but the lack of robust CAPE/shear likely to be associated with this feature suggests that severe potential should remain subdued. Farther north, weak disturbances moving through anticyclonic flow aloft across the Upper Midwest/Upper Great Lakes/Ohio Valley will likely combine with warm advection near the northward-advancing warm front to support areas of deep convection, with some potential for hail. Risk however appears too low to warrant an areal inclusion. Saturday (Day 5), an upper trough will continue advancing across the Rockies. However, models forecast the main surface low to remain over the eastern Colorado vicinity into the evening hours, with a capped warm sector residing across eastern Kansas/Oklahoma/Texas and the Ozarks area (i.e. yesterday's Day 6 outlook area) in a zone of subsidence in the wake of the slow-moving southern-stream trough. As such, storm initiation now appears likely to remain largely hindered through Sunday morning. The primary severe risk appears likely to evolve Sunday/Day 6, from Missouri/Arkansas/northern Louisiana, spreading eastward through the day, and eventually approaching the west slopes of the Appalachians. As the western U.S. upper trough emerges into the Plains, supporting deepening of surface low pressure, a moist warm sector will destabilize through the day, likely yielding storm development initially west of the Mississippi Valley, and then spreading eastward through the evening. The favorable thermodynamic environment will combine with strong/veering flow through the middle troposphere, suggesting of severe storms including supercells, and attendant, all-hazards severe potential. By Monday, models begin to diverge with respect to speed of surface-frontal advancement east of the Appalachians. Still, enough destabilization should occur east and southeast of the front to allow storms to spread across the Southeast, along with attendant severe risk. Tuesday, model differences continue to increase, with the front residing off the Atlantic and Gulf Coasts per the GFS, while lingering over parts of the Southeast and the Gulf Coast region per the ECMWF. Given the uncertainty/predictability issues, no risk areas will be included. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0409 AM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025 Valid 281200Z - 021200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range models appear to be in reasonably good agreement into the Day 7 period (Monday March 31), with respect to evolution/progression of large-scale features. Day 4/Friday, a southern-stream trough is forecast to continue moving slowly eastward across the south-central states, reaching the lower Mississippi Valley Saturday morning. Showers and thunderstorms will accompany this feature, but the lack of robust CAPE/shear likely to be associated with this feature suggests that severe potential should remain subdued. Farther north, weak disturbances moving through anticyclonic flow aloft across the Upper Midwest/Upper Great Lakes/Ohio Valley will likely combine with warm advection near the northward-advancing warm front to support areas of deep convection, with some potential for hail. Risk however appears too low to warrant an areal inclusion. Saturday (Day 5), an upper trough will continue advancing across the Rockies. However, models forecast the main surface low to remain over the eastern Colorado vicinity into the evening hours, with a capped warm sector residing across eastern Kansas/Oklahoma/Texas and the Ozarks area (i.e. yesterday's Day 6 outlook area) in a zone of subsidence in the wake of the slow-moving southern-stream trough. As such, storm initiation now appears likely to remain largely hindered through Sunday morning. The primary severe risk appears likely to evolve Sunday/Day 6, from Missouri/Arkansas/northern Louisiana, spreading eastward through the day, and eventually approaching the west slopes of the Appalachians. As the western U.S. upper trough emerges into the Plains, supporting deepening of surface low pressure, a moist warm sector will destabilize through the day, likely yielding storm development initially west of the Mississippi Valley, and then spreading eastward through the evening. The favorable thermodynamic environment will combine with strong/veering flow through the middle troposphere, suggesting of severe storms including supercells, and attendant, all-hazards severe potential. By Monday, models begin to diverge with respect to speed of surface-frontal advancement east of the Appalachians. Still, enough destabilization should occur east and southeast of the front to allow storms to spread across the Southeast, along with attendant severe risk. Tuesday, model differences continue to increase, with the front residing off the Atlantic and Gulf Coasts per the GFS, while lingering over parts of the Southeast and the Gulf Coast region per the ECMWF. Given the uncertainty/predictability issues, no risk areas will be included. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0409 AM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025 Valid 281200Z - 021200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range models appear to be in reasonably good agreement into the Day 7 period (Monday March 31), with respect to evolution/progression of large-scale features. Day 4/Friday, a southern-stream trough is forecast to continue moving slowly eastward across the south-central states, reaching the lower Mississippi Valley Saturday morning. Showers and thunderstorms will accompany this feature, but the lack of robust CAPE/shear likely to be associated with this feature suggests that severe potential should remain subdued. Farther north, weak disturbances moving through anticyclonic flow aloft across the Upper Midwest/Upper Great Lakes/Ohio Valley will likely combine with warm advection near the northward-advancing warm front to support areas of deep convection, with some potential for hail. Risk however appears too low to warrant an areal inclusion. Saturday (Day 5), an upper trough will continue advancing across the Rockies. However, models forecast the main surface low to remain over the eastern Colorado vicinity into the evening hours, with a capped warm sector residing across eastern Kansas/Oklahoma/Texas and the Ozarks area (i.e. yesterday's Day 6 outlook area) in a zone of subsidence in the wake of the slow-moving southern-stream trough. As such, storm initiation now appears likely to remain largely hindered through Sunday morning. The primary severe risk appears likely to evolve Sunday/Day 6, from Missouri/Arkansas/northern Louisiana, spreading eastward through the day, and eventually approaching the west slopes of the Appalachians. As the western U.S. upper trough emerges into the Plains, supporting deepening of surface low pressure, a moist warm sector will destabilize through the day, likely yielding storm development initially west of the Mississippi Valley, and then spreading eastward through the evening. The favorable thermodynamic environment will combine with strong/veering flow through the middle troposphere, suggesting of severe storms including supercells, and attendant, all-hazards severe potential. By Monday, models begin to diverge with respect to speed of surface-frontal advancement east of the Appalachians. Still, enough destabilization should occur east and southeast of the front to allow storms to spread across the Southeast, along with attendant severe risk. Tuesday, model differences continue to increase, with the front residing off the Atlantic and Gulf Coasts per the GFS, while lingering over parts of the Southeast and the Gulf Coast region per the ECMWF. Given the uncertainty/predictability issues, no risk areas will be included. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0409 AM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025 Valid 281200Z - 021200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range models appear to be in reasonably good agreement into the Day 7 period (Monday March 31), with respect to evolution/progression of large-scale features. Day 4/Friday, a southern-stream trough is forecast to continue moving slowly eastward across the south-central states, reaching the lower Mississippi Valley Saturday morning. Showers and thunderstorms will accompany this feature, but the lack of robust CAPE/shear likely to be associated with this feature suggests that severe potential should remain subdued. Farther north, weak disturbances moving through anticyclonic flow aloft across the Upper Midwest/Upper Great Lakes/Ohio Valley will likely combine with warm advection near the northward-advancing warm front to support areas of deep convection, with some potential for hail. Risk however appears too low to warrant an areal inclusion. Saturday (Day 5), an upper trough will continue advancing across the Rockies. However, models forecast the main surface low to remain over the eastern Colorado vicinity into the evening hours, with a capped warm sector residing across eastern Kansas/Oklahoma/Texas and the Ozarks area (i.e. yesterday's Day 6 outlook area) in a zone of subsidence in the wake of the slow-moving southern-stream trough. As such, storm initiation now appears likely to remain largely hindered through Sunday morning. The primary severe risk appears likely to evolve Sunday/Day 6, from Missouri/Arkansas/northern Louisiana, spreading eastward through the day, and eventually approaching the west slopes of the Appalachians. As the western U.S. upper trough emerges into the Plains, supporting deepening of surface low pressure, a moist warm sector will destabilize through the day, likely yielding storm development initially west of the Mississippi Valley, and then spreading eastward through the evening. The favorable thermodynamic environment will combine with strong/veering flow through the middle troposphere, suggesting of severe storms including supercells, and attendant, all-hazards severe potential. By Monday, models begin to diverge with respect to speed of surface-frontal advancement east of the Appalachians. Still, enough destabilization should occur east and southeast of the front to allow storms to spread across the Southeast, along with attendant severe risk. Tuesday, model differences continue to increase, with the front residing off the Atlantic and Gulf Coasts per the GFS, while lingering over parts of the Southeast and the Gulf Coast region per the ECMWF. Given the uncertainty/predictability issues, no risk areas will be included. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0409 AM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025 Valid 281200Z - 021200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range models appear to be in reasonably good agreement into the Day 7 period (Monday March 31), with respect to evolution/progression of large-scale features. Day 4/Friday, a southern-stream trough is forecast to continue moving slowly eastward across the south-central states, reaching the lower Mississippi Valley Saturday morning. Showers and thunderstorms will accompany this feature, but the lack of robust CAPE/shear likely to be associated with this feature suggests that severe potential should remain subdued. Farther north, weak disturbances moving through anticyclonic flow aloft across the Upper Midwest/Upper Great Lakes/Ohio Valley will likely combine with warm advection near the northward-advancing warm front to support areas of deep convection, with some potential for hail. Risk however appears too low to warrant an areal inclusion. Saturday (Day 5), an upper trough will continue advancing across the Rockies. However, models forecast the main surface low to remain over the eastern Colorado vicinity into the evening hours, with a capped warm sector residing across eastern Kansas/Oklahoma/Texas and the Ozarks area (i.e. yesterday's Day 6 outlook area) in a zone of subsidence in the wake of the slow-moving southern-stream trough. As such, storm initiation now appears likely to remain largely hindered through Sunday morning. The primary severe risk appears likely to evolve Sunday/Day 6, from Missouri/Arkansas/northern Louisiana, spreading eastward through the day, and eventually approaching the west slopes of the Appalachians. As the western U.S. upper trough emerges into the Plains, supporting deepening of surface low pressure, a moist warm sector will destabilize through the day, likely yielding storm development initially west of the Mississippi Valley, and then spreading eastward through the evening. The favorable thermodynamic environment will combine with strong/veering flow through the middle troposphere, suggesting of severe storms including supercells, and attendant, all-hazards severe potential. By Monday, models begin to diverge with respect to speed of surface-frontal advancement east of the Appalachians. Still, enough destabilization should occur east and southeast of the front to allow storms to spread across the Southeast, along with attendant severe risk. Tuesday, model differences continue to increase, with the front residing off the Atlantic and Gulf Coasts per the GFS, while lingering over parts of the Southeast and the Gulf Coast region per the ECMWF. Given the uncertainty/predictability issues, no risk areas will be included. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0409 AM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025 Valid 281200Z - 021200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range models appear to be in reasonably good agreement into the Day 7 period (Monday March 31), with respect to evolution/progression of large-scale features. Day 4/Friday, a southern-stream trough is forecast to continue moving slowly eastward across the south-central states, reaching the lower Mississippi Valley Saturday morning. Showers and thunderstorms will accompany this feature, but the lack of robust CAPE/shear likely to be associated with this feature suggests that severe potential should remain subdued. Farther north, weak disturbances moving through anticyclonic flow aloft across the Upper Midwest/Upper Great Lakes/Ohio Valley will likely combine with warm advection near the northward-advancing warm front to support areas of deep convection, with some potential for hail. Risk however appears too low to warrant an areal inclusion. Saturday (Day 5), an upper trough will continue advancing across the Rockies. However, models forecast the main surface low to remain over the eastern Colorado vicinity into the evening hours, with a capped warm sector residing across eastern Kansas/Oklahoma/Texas and the Ozarks area (i.e. yesterday's Day 6 outlook area) in a zone of subsidence in the wake of the slow-moving southern-stream trough. As such, storm initiation now appears likely to remain largely hindered through Sunday morning. The primary severe risk appears likely to evolve Sunday/Day 6, from Missouri/Arkansas/northern Louisiana, spreading eastward through the day, and eventually approaching the west slopes of the Appalachians. As the western U.S. upper trough emerges into the Plains, supporting deepening of surface low pressure, a moist warm sector will destabilize through the day, likely yielding storm development initially west of the Mississippi Valley, and then spreading eastward through the evening. The favorable thermodynamic environment will combine with strong/veering flow through the middle troposphere, suggesting of severe storms including supercells, and attendant, all-hazards severe potential. By Monday, models begin to diverge with respect to speed of surface-frontal advancement east of the Appalachians. Still, enough destabilization should occur east and southeast of the front to allow storms to spread across the Southeast, along with attendant severe risk. Tuesday, model differences continue to increase, with the front residing off the Atlantic and Gulf Coasts per the GFS, while lingering over parts of the Southeast and the Gulf Coast region per the ECMWF. Given the uncertainty/predictability issues, no risk areas will be included. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0236 AM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY AND MIDWEST...AND ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN AND SOUTHERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... A few strong/severe storms will be possible Thursday from the Mid Missouri Valley into the Ohio Valley, and across parts of western and southern Texas. ...Synopsis... Deamplification of the upper pattern across the U.S. is expected Thursday, as an eastern U.S. trough departs into the Atlantic, and deamplifying eastern Pacific troughing shifts into the West. Meanwhile, a weak southern-stream trough is forecast to cross northern Mexico and the southern Plains through Friday morning. At the surface, a cold front is expected to advance across the Intermountain West, associated with the filling/occluded low off the Pacific Northwest coast. Meanwhile, a warm front is forecast to advance northward across the central U.S., and should extend from the northern Plains east-southeastward into the Ohio Valley by the end of the period. ...Portions of western and southern Texas, including the Rio Grande Valley... Afternoon heating will result in airmass destabilization across Texas, as cool air aloft associated with the southern-stream trough spreads across the region. While flow aloft will remain modest, ample CAPE suggests a few stronger storms will be possible, with risk for hail and gusty/damaging winds. Coverage of stronger convection should remain sparse, but enough to warrant introduction of 5%/MRGL risk for the afternoon and evening hours. ...Mid Missouri Valley across the Corn Belt... Low-level warm advection will be maximized near and north of a warm front advancing northward across the central CONUS. Sufficiently steep mid-level lapse rates will support ample elevated CAPE, resulting in a zone of strong storm potential from eastern Nebraska east-southeastward to Indiana. With west-northwesterly mid-level flow expected to average around 35 kt near the frontal zone, sufficient shear will exist to allow occasionally stronger storms to evolve -- a few capable of producing severe-caliber hail. ..Goss.. 03/25/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0236 AM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY AND MIDWEST...AND ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN AND SOUTHERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... A few strong/severe storms will be possible Thursday from the Mid Missouri Valley into the Ohio Valley, and across parts of western and southern Texas. ...Synopsis... Deamplification of the upper pattern across the U.S. is expected Thursday, as an eastern U.S. trough departs into the Atlantic, and deamplifying eastern Pacific troughing shifts into the West. Meanwhile, a weak southern-stream trough is forecast to cross northern Mexico and the southern Plains through Friday morning. At the surface, a cold front is expected to advance across the Intermountain West, associated with the filling/occluded low off the Pacific Northwest coast. Meanwhile, a warm front is forecast to advance northward across the central U.S., and should extend from the northern Plains east-southeastward into the Ohio Valley by the end of the period. ...Portions of western and southern Texas, including the Rio Grande Valley... Afternoon heating will result in airmass destabilization across Texas, as cool air aloft associated with the southern-stream trough spreads across the region. While flow aloft will remain modest, ample CAPE suggests a few stronger storms will be possible, with risk for hail and gusty/damaging winds. Coverage of stronger convection should remain sparse, but enough to warrant introduction of 5%/MRGL risk for the afternoon and evening hours. ...Mid Missouri Valley across the Corn Belt... Low-level warm advection will be maximized near and north of a warm front advancing northward across the central CONUS. Sufficiently steep mid-level lapse rates will support ample elevated CAPE, resulting in a zone of strong storm potential from eastern Nebraska east-southeastward to Indiana. With west-northwesterly mid-level flow expected to average around 35 kt near the frontal zone, sufficient shear will exist to allow occasionally stronger storms to evolve -- a few capable of producing severe-caliber hail. ..Goss.. 03/25/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0236 AM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY AND MIDWEST...AND ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN AND SOUTHERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... A few strong/severe storms will be possible Thursday from the Mid Missouri Valley into the Ohio Valley, and across parts of western and southern Texas. ...Synopsis... Deamplification of the upper pattern across the U.S. is expected Thursday, as an eastern U.S. trough departs into the Atlantic, and deamplifying eastern Pacific troughing shifts into the West. Meanwhile, a weak southern-stream trough is forecast to cross northern Mexico and the southern Plains through Friday morning. At the surface, a cold front is expected to advance across the Intermountain West, associated with the filling/occluded low off the Pacific Northwest coast. Meanwhile, a warm front is forecast to advance northward across the central U.S., and should extend from the northern Plains east-southeastward into the Ohio Valley by the end of the period. ...Portions of western and southern Texas, including the Rio Grande Valley... Afternoon heating will result in airmass destabilization across Texas, as cool air aloft associated with the southern-stream trough spreads across the region. While flow aloft will remain modest, ample CAPE suggests a few stronger storms will be possible, with risk for hail and gusty/damaging winds. Coverage of stronger convection should remain sparse, but enough to warrant introduction of 5%/MRGL risk for the afternoon and evening hours. ...Mid Missouri Valley across the Corn Belt... Low-level warm advection will be maximized near and north of a warm front advancing northward across the central CONUS. Sufficiently steep mid-level lapse rates will support ample elevated CAPE, resulting in a zone of strong storm potential from eastern Nebraska east-southeastward to Indiana. With west-northwesterly mid-level flow expected to average around 35 kt near the frontal zone, sufficient shear will exist to allow occasionally stronger storms to evolve -- a few capable of producing severe-caliber hail. ..Goss.. 03/25/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0236 AM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY AND MIDWEST...AND ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN AND SOUTHERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... A few strong/severe storms will be possible Thursday from the Mid Missouri Valley into the Ohio Valley, and across parts of western and southern Texas. ...Synopsis... Deamplification of the upper pattern across the U.S. is expected Thursday, as an eastern U.S. trough departs into the Atlantic, and deamplifying eastern Pacific troughing shifts into the West. Meanwhile, a weak southern-stream trough is forecast to cross northern Mexico and the southern Plains through Friday morning. At the surface, a cold front is expected to advance across the Intermountain West, associated with the filling/occluded low off the Pacific Northwest coast. Meanwhile, a warm front is forecast to advance northward across the central U.S., and should extend from the northern Plains east-southeastward into the Ohio Valley by the end of the period. ...Portions of western and southern Texas, including the Rio Grande Valley... Afternoon heating will result in airmass destabilization across Texas, as cool air aloft associated with the southern-stream trough spreads across the region. While flow aloft will remain modest, ample CAPE suggests a few stronger storms will be possible, with risk for hail and gusty/damaging winds. Coverage of stronger convection should remain sparse, but enough to warrant introduction of 5%/MRGL risk for the afternoon and evening hours. ...Mid Missouri Valley across the Corn Belt... Low-level warm advection will be maximized near and north of a warm front advancing northward across the central CONUS. Sufficiently steep mid-level lapse rates will support ample elevated CAPE, resulting in a zone of strong storm potential from eastern Nebraska east-southeastward to Indiana. With west-northwesterly mid-level flow expected to average around 35 kt near the frontal zone, sufficient shear will exist to allow occasionally stronger storms to evolve -- a few capable of producing severe-caliber hail. ..Goss.. 03/25/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0236 AM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY AND MIDWEST...AND ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN AND SOUTHERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... A few strong/severe storms will be possible Thursday from the Mid Missouri Valley into the Ohio Valley, and across parts of western and southern Texas. ...Synopsis... Deamplification of the upper pattern across the U.S. is expected Thursday, as an eastern U.S. trough departs into the Atlantic, and deamplifying eastern Pacific troughing shifts into the West. Meanwhile, a weak southern-stream trough is forecast to cross northern Mexico and the southern Plains through Friday morning. At the surface, a cold front is expected to advance across the Intermountain West, associated with the filling/occluded low off the Pacific Northwest coast. Meanwhile, a warm front is forecast to advance northward across the central U.S., and should extend from the northern Plains east-southeastward into the Ohio Valley by the end of the period. ...Portions of western and southern Texas, including the Rio Grande Valley... Afternoon heating will result in airmass destabilization across Texas, as cool air aloft associated with the southern-stream trough spreads across the region. While flow aloft will remain modest, ample CAPE suggests a few stronger storms will be possible, with risk for hail and gusty/damaging winds. Coverage of stronger convection should remain sparse, but enough to warrant introduction of 5%/MRGL risk for the afternoon and evening hours. ...Mid Missouri Valley across the Corn Belt... Low-level warm advection will be maximized near and north of a warm front advancing northward across the central CONUS. Sufficiently steep mid-level lapse rates will support ample elevated CAPE, resulting in a zone of strong storm potential from eastern Nebraska east-southeastward to Indiana. With west-northwesterly mid-level flow expected to average around 35 kt near the frontal zone, sufficient shear will exist to allow occasionally stronger storms to evolve -- a few capable of producing severe-caliber hail. ..Goss.. 03/25/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0236 AM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY AND MIDWEST...AND ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN AND SOUTHERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... A few strong/severe storms will be possible Thursday from the Mid Missouri Valley into the Ohio Valley, and across parts of western and southern Texas. ...Synopsis... Deamplification of the upper pattern across the U.S. is expected Thursday, as an eastern U.S. trough departs into the Atlantic, and deamplifying eastern Pacific troughing shifts into the West. Meanwhile, a weak southern-stream trough is forecast to cross northern Mexico and the southern Plains through Friday morning. At the surface, a cold front is expected to advance across the Intermountain West, associated with the filling/occluded low off the Pacific Northwest coast. Meanwhile, a warm front is forecast to advance northward across the central U.S., and should extend from the northern Plains east-southeastward into the Ohio Valley by the end of the period. ...Portions of western and southern Texas, including the Rio Grande Valley... Afternoon heating will result in airmass destabilization across Texas, as cool air aloft associated with the southern-stream trough spreads across the region. While flow aloft will remain modest, ample CAPE suggests a few stronger storms will be possible, with risk for hail and gusty/damaging winds. Coverage of stronger convection should remain sparse, but enough to warrant introduction of 5%/MRGL risk for the afternoon and evening hours. ...Mid Missouri Valley across the Corn Belt... Low-level warm advection will be maximized near and north of a warm front advancing northward across the central CONUS. Sufficiently steep mid-level lapse rates will support ample elevated CAPE, resulting in a zone of strong storm potential from eastern Nebraska east-southeastward to Indiana. With west-northwesterly mid-level flow expected to average around 35 kt near the frontal zone, sufficient shear will exist to allow occasionally stronger storms to evolve -- a few capable of producing severe-caliber hail. ..Goss.. 03/25/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0215 AM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...Synopsis... Large-scale ridging will continue to amplify over the western US as a subtle southern stream shortwave trough slides underneath the ridge. Weak ascent will overspread parts of the Southwest as modest moisture returns to the west. This may support isolated dry thunderstorms atop dry fuels in parts of the Southwest. ...Parts of NM... As the weak upper-level trough moves over the Southwest, modest ascent and easterly upslope flow is expected to promote isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms from central NM to western TX. At the western extent of the moist plume, PWAT values less than 0.75 inches will overlap with sufficiently steep low and mid-level lapse rates to support high-based storms with poor precipitation efficiency. Dry lightning strikes appear likely over very receptive fuels given the high-based nature of any convection that forms. An Isolated Dry Thunder area has been added across western and central NM where best overlap of thunderstorm potential and dry fuels should exist for several hours Wed. ...Appalachians... Another day of dry conditions is expected across the southern Appalachians Wed. High pressure will gradually shift eastward with downslope flow likely across parts of western VA and the Carolinas. While surface winds may not be overly strong (generally less than 15 mph), isolated gusts near 20 mph are possible. In addition, afternoon RH should fall below 25%. Model guidance shows considerable spread regarding the spatial and temporal coverage of any elevated fire weather conditions that may develop. A few hours of locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible, but uncertain. ..Lyons.. 03/25/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0215 AM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...Synopsis... Large-scale ridging will continue to amplify over the western US as a subtle southern stream shortwave trough slides underneath the ridge. Weak ascent will overspread parts of the Southwest as modest moisture returns to the west. This may support isolated dry thunderstorms atop dry fuels in parts of the Southwest. ...Parts of NM... As the weak upper-level trough moves over the Southwest, modest ascent and easterly upslope flow is expected to promote isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms from central NM to western TX. At the western extent of the moist plume, PWAT values less than 0.75 inches will overlap with sufficiently steep low and mid-level lapse rates to support high-based storms with poor precipitation efficiency. Dry lightning strikes appear likely over very receptive fuels given the high-based nature of any convection that forms. An Isolated Dry Thunder area has been added across western and central NM where best overlap of thunderstorm potential and dry fuels should exist for several hours Wed. ...Appalachians... Another day of dry conditions is expected across the southern Appalachians Wed. High pressure will gradually shift eastward with downslope flow likely across parts of western VA and the Carolinas. While surface winds may not be overly strong (generally less than 15 mph), isolated gusts near 20 mph are possible. In addition, afternoon RH should fall below 25%. Model guidance shows considerable spread regarding the spatial and temporal coverage of any elevated fire weather conditions that may develop. A few hours of locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible, but uncertain. ..Lyons.. 03/25/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more